ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
i think Hunt is in play anywhere from 8-14 range. Lots of decent gambles in the late 1st - early 2nd. He's in that group.
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RB Kareem Hunt, CLE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
Nero
Footballguy
I can't see anywhere in the top-10. Maybe 13-19 for me. I'd take all 3 first round TE's over him.
I think this is likely going to be somewhat similar to the Crowell-Duke Johnson backfield, only the Browns RBs are probably better players, on a lesser offense.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
i would take the TE's and Ross over him too, but couldn't blame someone around pick 9'ish thinking about him. Personally wouldn't take him until 12 or later.
Gandalf
Footballguy
My comment referred to the question I asked about whether Hunt is now a mid-first rookie pick which clearly would be no if you think he sucks
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's my thought as well. I have the 14th pick in a 16 team league where I don't need a rb (at least I don't think I do with McCoy, gillislee, hyde and j hill, start 1-2) but I'd have a really hard time passing on hunt if he falls to me. Actually maybe I could use a young rb but it's not overly pressing. Still I have him top 14 for sure, idp league.
But I've liked hunt for a while, drafted him back in the wsl here, as the 60th rb.
Andrew74
Footballguy
I looked at his stats and there wasn't much of a change in his usage pre-Indy and post-Indy, save in the passing game (and that is distorted by the first game vs. SD).
I excluded the Indy game and the week 16 game vs Denver (both games he was injured and didn't play the whole game). That leaves six games before Indy and 6 games after.
Snap counts (avg %)
First 6: 63.22%, Second 6: 66.67%
Rush attempts/yds/ypc
First 6: 95/492/5.18, Second 6: 99/348/3.52
Targets/Receptions/yards
First 6: 21/15/285, Second 6: 16/14/114
If you look at average targets/receptions/yds per game and exclude week 1, it's basically the same pre-Indy and post-Indy.
So my take away is his usage was consistent through out the season, with week one a big outlier in the receiving game. His snap counts, rush attempts and targets/receptions was almost identical throughout. The one glaring item is his rush efficiency declined dramatically post Indy. HIs ypc dropped over 1.5.
Honestly I was surprised by this as I felt (as a Ware owner) they were ignoring him as well.
nirad3
Footballguy
Ha, well played. But only one of these guys will be available in my dynasty rookie drafts.
But yeah, Hunt could be a JAG too. But something in him the Chiefs like enough to not only draft him but move up to do so. That, along with what I saw of Hunt on tape, is enough for me to bite in dynasty rookie drafts where RB is on my menu.
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DropKick
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What do you think a late 1st to early second round pick is really worth, since one good (top 12ish) season would not be close to good enough?
-OZ-
Footballguy
This discussion is really close to the Marshawn lynch thread. I'd have to agree that one season, short of the top player in ff, isn't worth a 1st. Mid 2nd probably. Weird comment to make here anyway imo as I'll expect more than one season from hunt.
DropKick
Footballguy
I'm looking to add a long term asset with a 1st round pick. In this draft, that's probably a TE if I'm picking late. But, no, I can't be happy with one productive year from my #1.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well I think that expectations are too high if that would not be good enough.
Here are some odds to consider for historic RB performance.
Hunt was the 6th RB selected in 2017 so he has a 60% chance of providing more than zero career VBD and 129 over the course of the players career, hopefully has one season where you are getting 32 or more VBD which should at least be enough of an advantage to help you win some head to head match ups. Otherwise marginal compiling of VBD over a career ( a little each season) isn't really going to help you win.
So that is a 60% chance to not be worth nothing.
As the 6th selected RB Hunt has a 20% chance of having a career over 200 VBD. 200 VBD would be a pretty exceptional career where the player should finish top 12 at their position once, or possibly three RB two type seasons during their career. The more of this value that occurs in one season the better, that is what helps you win games.
The 6th RB has a 10% chance of a 400 VBD career which is a performance level that only the elite players in FF ever achieve. 200 career VBD is a really high bar as well. 400 career VBD is like LT or Faulk level careers, not many of those.
So if are you saying that the 12th pick has a good chance of having a 200 VBD career I would say the history disagrees with that expectation.
Here is the historical VBD generated by draft pick. You will see that pick 1.12 and pick 2.01 are worth approximately 150 career VBD which is below the 200 VBD threshold of a 'long term successful fantasy career;
To put this another way, in a typical league starting requirement of 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE there are only 84 players who will have positive VBD for any given season, call that 96 players if you have a flex option/ So anything lower than player 96 does not provide you any value in terms of VBD or if they do, it would only be for a few games.
So according to this pick 100 is about the same as pick 1.12 which is below the 200 career VBD threshold.
You should be hoping that the player can provide you even one good fantasy season, as most of them are not going to, and especially not from this late of a pick on average.
Of course you can always pick the right player that late and get lucky, but the odds are very much against it,
Here are some odds to consider for historic RB performance.
Hunt was the 6th RB selected in 2017 so he has a 60% chance of providing more than zero career VBD and 129 over the course of the players career, hopefully has one season where you are getting 32 or more VBD which should at least be enough of an advantage to help you win some head to head match ups. Otherwise marginal compiling of VBD over a career ( a little each season) isn't really going to help you win.
So that is a 60% chance to not be worth nothing.
As the 6th selected RB Hunt has a 20% chance of having a career over 200 VBD. 200 VBD would be a pretty exceptional career where the player should finish top 12 at their position once, or possibly three RB two type seasons during their career. The more of this value that occurs in one season the better, that is what helps you win games.
The 6th RB has a 10% chance of a 400 VBD career which is a performance level that only the elite players in FF ever achieve. 200 career VBD is a really high bar as well. 400 career VBD is like LT or Faulk level careers, not many of those.
So if are you saying that the 12th pick has a good chance of having a 200 VBD career I would say the history disagrees with that expectation.
Here is the historical VBD generated by draft pick. You will see that pick 1.12 and pick 2.01 are worth approximately 150 career VBD which is below the 200 VBD threshold of a 'long term successful fantasy career;
To put this another way, in a typical league starting requirement of 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE there are only 84 players who will have positive VBD for any given season, call that 96 players if you have a flex option/ So anything lower than player 96 does not provide you any value in terms of VBD or if they do, it would only be for a few games.
So according to this pick 100 is about the same as pick 1.12 which is below the 200 career VBD threshold.
You should be hoping that the player can provide you even one good fantasy season, as most of them are not going to, and especially not from this late of a pick on average.
Of course you can always pick the right player that late and get lucky, but the odds are very much against it,
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Gandalf
Footballguy
This is pretty cool. How does this chart actually work though? It looks like the 6th RB has 60% but is that to achieve nothing or exceed vbd? I ask because RB1 is listed at 80% which makes me think the analysis might be backward and that Hunt has a 40% chance of being worth nothing not 60%. Is that correct?
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
What if you factor in some historical data like Andy Reid's history of drafted rb usage and success rate? With a coach that's been around and has always seemed to have a top 12 fantasy producer at rb I feel hunt is a pretty decent pick in the late 1st, but the data here is compelling. Not all 6th rb taken find a good coach with a shaky depth chart.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Was Reid there when they took Jamaal Charles in the 3rd?
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
No. People often often lit into Todd Haley for insisting on giving Thomas Jones carries over Charles early in Charles' career.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
As I said earlier this looks like a RBBC to me (which isn't necessarily a bad thing). Ware is better than some people seem to think - he faded after a concussion and HAS that he played through but looked very good early in the season. Fantasy owners always expect rookies to come in and just replace the incumbent but gernally only first and sometimes second round picks usually accomplish that.
I think Hunt takes on the West role (plus) to start the season and if Ware doesn't look like early season Ware Hunt's role could increase to where Ware becomes the complimentary back.
I think Hunt takes on the West role (plus) to start the season and if Ware doesn't look like early season Ware Hunt's role could increase to where Ware becomes the complimentary back.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think we need to have context here and examine how Ware became the starter. Ware was drafted by the Seahawks in the 6th round and was cut a year later. Ware signed as a practice squad guy in KC. In 2015, when the 2 RBs ahead of him on the depth chart got hurt, Ware got the starting job. He then got hurt. In 2016, Ware ends up winning the back-up job, but the planned featured RB didn't recover from his injury so low and behold Ware is the starter.
Now the Chiefs trade to move up 18 spots in the 3rd to draft a RB.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not to be underestimated. And in a draft where a record breaking run of DBs were taken ahead of him. This decision screams that they saw him as a 2nd rounder and pounced. He may or may not pan out but I think it's fair to say he will be given the chance to compete for a feature role.
DropKick
Footballguy
You've lept from "getting one good season out of a RB" to the odds of "a long term successful fantasy career"; two very different things to me.
Everyone would like a player that lights it up from his first day in the league to his last. It doesn't usually work that way. Guys can sit early; sustain injury and even become mediocre late in their career. Doesn't that all get lost in career averages? I would measure someone's value by how often I can confidently use them in my starting line-up. They don't have to be a world beater to help me win. But, yes, I hope to be able to use a late first for more than one season.
Getting back to the specific case of Hunt... Nice potential opportunity with the Chiefs but the situation could play out in different ways (pointed out by many in this thread) and I'm not wowed by the player. Don't take that too negatively (read it as solid, not spectacular). He probably isn't good enough to grab as "BPA" over team needs. I'll be targeting a TE (a strength of this class) or a WR who may slip. I'd have more interest in Hunt as a handcuff with upside or if I had a big need at RB.
Reid's comments about Ware before the draft suggested KC would draft a back. Hunt will get a lot of love as the shiny new toy right now but I can see this a RBBC head-ache. We don't draft until late August so this might shake-out some before then...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I know all of this. I don't see how it changes anything I said in the post you responded to.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just the part about expecting rookies to overtake incumbents. I'm not sure Ware is the incumbent by choice so much as by default.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Id take perine and mack over him in late 1st
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm considering him at 1.10 in a non ppr draft that's already started. He's got a high ceiling due to the system, but there's no guarantee he'll ever even get a chance to start. And let's be clear, he's no Jamaal Charles. He's so much slower than Jamaal Charles that you could literally watch him race Jamaal Charles in the 40, then when Charles finishes, say "that's fast", and you'd be done before Hunt crossed the finish line.
But I love guys who can run catch and score. I also like big guys who can carry the load (perine) and little guys in offenses that really use them (kamara) and potential 3 down backs on good offenses (mack). I also like running backs that run in the 4.2 range. Last receiver to do that was moss. Last running back was a 2000 yard back. I also like tight ends from an elite tight end class. The hard part is deciding how willing I am to gamble on the upside.
But I love guys who can run catch and score. I also like big guys who can carry the load (perine) and little guys in offenses that really use them (kamara) and potential 3 down backs on good offenses (mack). I also like running backs that run in the 4.2 range. Last receiver to do that was moss. Last running back was a 2000 yard back. I also like tight ends from an elite tight end class. The hard part is deciding how willing I am to gamble on the upside.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would have to go back through the original conversation being had several years ago about what in terms of VBD would be considered good enough to make a difference. I think myself Adam, ZWK, workdog (who make the chart that is lined) arrived at something like 40 VBD in one season being the goal or target for players to become difference makers.
So the 200 VBD threshold is based on that 40 VBD per season, that would be like 5 seasons at 40 VBD to reach 200 over the players career. Obviously a lot of player never do that well for their careers.
This can be done by draft position as well but the way workdog did this is by the order player positions were drafted. So in this case Hunt was the 6th RB drafted in 2017. You see a drop off at RB 7 compared to the top 6 drafted. Part of this is random, that is why you will see some spiking in the data that might be a smoother progression if you did it by NFL draft round instead.
The 60% chance is just the odds of the player having more than zero VBD. To actually become a player that DropKick is hoping to draft (200 VBD career) Hunt only has a 20% to become that. But this chance is better than any RB drafted after him. So it's not like there is a higher percentage choice or option.
Again all of this is averaged from previous seasons and each players carer path is different. But this at least gives you an idea of what a realistic outcome for a rookie player might be, and through that perhaps not be as disappointed when rookies fail, or by understanding this perhaps you won't pay as high of a price for a rookie pick based on unrealistic expectations of that picks actual value.
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Since this is a weak draft I can understand talk of people taking Hunt in the late first, but in a good draft is he worth it?
I own Ware and West and the 21st pick. If he falls to me there, I'll grab him for sure. But I'm not giving a dime to move up and chase him. I'm still worried about how much Tyreek Hill is going to steal from these guys.
If you are considering Hunt in the first, I'd look into trading down or swapping for a 2018 1st and let someone else pay the premium price for a player with such an unpredictable floor.
I own Ware and West and the 21st pick. If he falls to me there, I'll grab him for sure. But I'm not giving a dime to move up and chase him. I'm still worried about how much Tyreek Hill is going to steal from these guys.
If you are considering Hunt in the first, I'd look into trading down or swapping for a 2018 1st and let someone else pay the premium price for a player with such an unpredictable floor.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That would be a great way to look at it as well.
All the above is looking at is the history of the players by their position and what their odds are of reaching these two thresholds. That is one data point. Looking at Andy Reids history with players would be another way to look at it, as well as a number o other things that you can layer together to help inform your decision.
Without looking at the numbers I think Andy Reid has shown a tendency in his play calling to throw the ball to RB more often than other HC coaches and OC. So a good chance for a RB playing for him to be a bit more involved in the passing game than usual. So I do consider it a good landing spot. To really know this however would require we break down every coach in the league in the same way, to find out if Reid actually does throw to the RB more than other coaches, and by how much.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I wouldn't describe this as a weak draft. It is a very good draft for fantasy. Two RB and 3 WR were top 10 picks. You are not going to find many draft classes investing this highly in skill positions at the top of the draft. The 2017 is very strong at some critical and highly drafted positions, such as edge rushers and corners. Those picks typically will push some skill players down, and that was predicted to happen more than it actually did.
This is a strong draft class. Maybe not quite as good as 2014 for fantasy but it is better than the last couple seasons, as far as skill players go, and I don't even like the WR as much as I think a lot of people do. It is still a strong draft for fantasy.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well what began this discussion was you making the statement that value of a late 1st round rookie pick only providing one good season "not being close" to what you think the pick should be worth. So I have done what I can to demonstrate that expecting more than that is setting yourself up to be disappointed.
I have also demonstrated that the value of pick 1.12 is worth similar to pick 100 in a start up draft and those values are very close, refuting your original statement.
The career VBD does take all of these considerations into the entirety of the players career. Being blocked by other player, being injured, not performing well enough and so on. All of those things do not get lost in the career averages, they are very much a part of what causes those numbers to be what they are.
How confident you are to put a player in your starting lineup is addressed by the VBD thresholds. We are looking for 32 VBD over a season to gain a 2 VBD advantage on a per game basis. If the player you have can score 2 VBD/game over the baseline on a per game basis they are going to help you win games, be good enough to put into your starting lineup. If a player isn't providing you at least 2 VBD per game advantage, then they are not really helping you win aside from a big game or two of the season where their productivity was worth starting.
Using the player for more than one season is always an option. The question is if that player will actually help you win head to head match ups or not.
All of the discussion is pointed directly at the same thing you are looking for. That is the basis of the 40 VBD season.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Denver724
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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nirad3
Footballguy
Totally agree. There are potential mega-studs at RB, WR, TE and for those in IDP formats, LB, both DL spots and both DB spots. Obviously the QBs will be better next year but there are a few that could be fairly good. And then, at least in my opinion, there is a HUGE pool of guys with insane upside... at just about every position. I think this draft is absolutely loaded both in terms of top-end talent and risk/reward stashes. And guys like Hunt that kind of fall right in the middle.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Disagree !00%. I see drafting Foreman as giving Miller license to play out his contract, with Foreman having a fairly small role during most of that time, and maybe, best case, succeeding Miller.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Maybe but the Texans can save a nice chunk by cutting miller before 18 or 19. If they like how foreman is producing, Miller is gone after this year imo.
Kleck
Footballguy
I'm more in line with this, but maybe more of a role for Foreman. The two compliment each other nicely. Miller has been playing well, and is valuable for what he is (>=200 rush, 50+ catch back). He just isn't the complete back that should get 300+ touches, or a goalline/short yardage pounder. When you consider that Houston finished 8th in the NFL for rushing yards (1859), but tied for 29th in rushing TDs (8), a back like Foreman makes a lot of sense for them to draft.
I have Hunt ranked higher Foreman partly because I don't see Miller going away for the next few years.
Kleck
Footballguy
I was looking at these stats at PFF before the draft. They love Hunt over there, and have to say I do too as he's my clear #5 RB.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is kind of how I see it going as well. Some form of RBBC with Miller getting the majority share for 2017 at least.
The salary cap angle might be compelling though and I haven't considered that. They traded away Brock Lobster to get out of that contract. So maybe they need to make some hard choices salary cap wise that might make Miller expendable sooner than later. Especially if Foreman does play well.
DropKick
Footballguy
