RB Kareem Hunt, KC (3 Viewers)

[JohnnyU]

I’m in on Hunt. Not many WW opportunities where the coach has a track record of getting more out of outcast RBBC bums than anyone else.

A lot of wishing in this thread when it comes to the KC backfield. I get it, but some, or all, are going to be dissapointed.

Wishing?

Name me a WW acquisition who has more upside than Kareem Hunt?

Jordan Mason. Oh, you mean now. The Raiders defense against Carolina . Akers? For at least a few weeks.

 

[steelwind]

Let's review the facts as far as we know at this moment.
Hunt signed to the practice squad, not the active roster. What does this mean?
Just read Reid said Hunt could play in week 3. Of course. He can be elevated this weekend onto the active roster taking Pacheco's spot.
Right after the game ends he auto goes back to the practice squad.
He can be elevated 3 times on game days then if he does not sign onto the active roster he is automatically waived from the Chiefs.
So pay attention to the contract changes, if any. If Hunt officially signs onto the active roster then he is most likely the starter.
Either way it will be a committee maybe 50/50 Hunt/Perine with Steel sprinkling in some short yardage/goaline vultures.

 

[joey]

It’s called a lottery ticket. Gotta grab someone off the waiver wire for the end of the bench.

 

[KellysHeroes]

wonder how he feels about their patience with Rice's situation

 

[BlackCrowes]

It’ll be split 50/50/50

 

[steelwind]

Let's review the facts as far as we know at this moment.
Hunt signed to the practice squad, not the active roster. What does this mean?
Just read Reid said Hunt could play in week 3. Of course. He can be elevated this weekend onto the active roster taking Pacheco's spot.
Right after the game ends he auto goes back to the practice squad.
He can be elevated 3 times on game days then if he does not sign onto the active roster he is automatically waived from the Chiefs.
So pay attention to the contract changes, if any. If Hunt officially signs onto the active roster then he is most likely the starter.
Either way it will be a committee maybe 50/50 Hunt/Perine with Steel sprinkling in some short yardage/goaline vultures.

Forgot to mention. NFL teams do not have to report practice squad player designations. So Hunt could practice full, pull a hamstring, or eat fried chicken on the sidelines and we will never know.

 

[markrc99]

"He's a tough sonofagun. He's got some Bam Morris or Alstott to him. (He's fun!) It doesn't necessarily matter if people hit him as some bounce off. You're going to have to chunk this scouting report and do the old eye test to judge him"

Steele you mean, right? I would add that there are multiple reports (NFL draft tracker, FBG rookie guide, Lindy's & Athlon's), but I can agree & wish I had gotten him. But to me he's more of a ramp up 'back, establish a runway & get him rolling downhill. Which would make him more of a throwback. Then, there's NFL tackling, especially in the back.

But with respect to Reid's earlier comment, Hunt isn't a desperation type signing. Reads more like a when not an if & when. As soon as he's ready he's going to be afforded a chance to factor. Just seems like they knew where Hunt was at physically.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Hunt is an emergency signing and is starting on the practice squad, do I have that right?
These kind of signings off the street are not in any way to find a "White Knight" to come in and take 15-20 carries a game and be a work horse...that's never gonna happen

Steele was UDFA but has been in camp now since about May? June-July-Aug and 2 weeks into the NFL season...3 as we approach Sunday
I don't know what Steele's role will be exactly but he better be able to pass protect when needed and pick up the blitz, if not he won't be on the field much except to run the ball.
Problem there is teams won't respect other types of plays when he's in the back field
Until he proves he can be a dual threat or do other things than run between the Tackles, limited ceiling
As far as running the ball near the goal line, Chiefs can just let Mahomes roll out and either tuck it and run or just flip it to Kelce/Rice/whoever

-Could Steele run the ball well, break a few tackles and put something out there like 10/50/TD and FF folks will be begging for more touches.
Perine will definitely be used on 3rd down and passing situations, that's his bread and butter

I wouldn't expect any of the Chiefs RBs to put up even half the production fo Pacheco
If you drafted Pacheco then you are trying to find a spot here to plug a hole, problem is it's not just 1-2 weeks, we might not see him for 2 month, slow bleed over many weeks

-You can talk yourself into whatever but Perine has been in a the league a along time, very rarely is he a weekly Top 20 option, you'll be lucky if he scrapes up enough on 3rd downs to even be serviceable most weeks and Steele will be TD reliant IMHO and not sure how often he will get chances to crash into the end zone

He's got the same setup as Dalvin Cook.

I think the Chiefs have as much doubt as we do. The other guys were good in spots but can they be relied upon?
Not long ago, Pacheco would get 60ish on the ground and McKinnon would get 40ish thru the air. That's how they get their 100 yards.

Andy Reid in Philly didn't care about your fantasy team. He may be the guy that made that saying comical.

If you have to you have to. I'm not going to sit here and be like Foreman is your lottery ticket not Hunt or Perine or Steele.
I like Whittington as this week's lottery ticket. The Rams don't but I do. I mean did he even play the first two weeks? I think some of the other subs are typical journerymen and he's the guy that can get 8 slot catches and Stafford's attention.

Foreman having more work than Ford meant little to me other than they can't wait for Chubb soon. Aha but news came out Chubb's return is not week four but more like week eight and faaaa.

My thinking- I went back to the mess in KC and looking at Cleveland again and...I went with Braelon Allen. Skip all of that mess. Allen looked good against a tough D, Hall needs a good backup and I won't get so many headaches.

I don't see why Steele comes out on GL plays so if I had to pick it would be him.

I like that Braelon Allen comment and slide worked into all of this, good stuff

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It’ll be split 50/50/50

 

[Big Nate]

wonder how he feels about their patience with Rice's situation

Different situation. The 2 aren't the same. What did it for Hunt initially was that he wasn't honest with Reid and Reid was pissed when he found out the whole truth. That is what did Hunt in initially.

Looks like Hunt gets a second chance now.

 

[JohnnyU]

It’ll be split 50/50/50

Sounds like the new math they now teach in high schools. Love the post by the way.

 

[steelwind]

This is developing.
"Chiefs signed RB Keaontay Ingram from their practice squad to the active roster."

So Ingram just took Pacheco's spot on the active roster. Originally I thought Hunt would get brought up on Sunday to take that spot. Ingram will no longer go back to the practice squad. He is on the team unless they release him. And I do not envision them to carry 4 RBs on game day. So now it's Steele/Perine/Ingram.

The big question now is if Hunt gets brought up on game day from the practice squad who's spot does he take? But the Ingram move tells you something. I doubt Hunt plays this weekend. Unless carrying 4 RBs on game day is a thing for Reid.

 

[steelwind]

This is developing.
"Chiefs signed RB Keaontay Ingram from their practice squad to the active roster."

So Ingram just took Pacheco's spot on the active roster. Originally I thought Hunt would get brought up on Sunday to take that spot. Ingram will no longer go back to the practice squad. He is on the team unless they release him. And I do not envision them to carry 4 RBs on game day. So now it's Steele/Perine/Ingram.

The big question now is if Hunt gets brought up on game day from the practice squad who's spot does he take? But the Ingram move tells you something. I doubt Hunt plays this weekend. Unless carrying 4 RBs on game day is a thing for Reid.

To add.
If we are now looking at how this Sunday might look like.
Is Ingram that dark horse starter that we have all dismissed? Is Reid playing a chess game here?
Either way this is a RBBC I am now staying away from.

 

[JohnnyU]

I had a decision to make in one league whether to drop Emanuel Wilson for Hunt and decided to keep Wilson. For all I know Hunt doesn't even make it off the practice squad, or isn't a factor if he does. What I do know right now is that if Jacobs goes down I would be sorry I dropped Wilson.

 

[Loipz]

It’ll be split 50/50/50

That’s my ideal sized pie

 

[rockaction]

Unless carrying 4 RBs on game day is a thing for Reid.

It's not. We've seen Reid's RBBCs like these. Damien Williams, Darrell Williams, Darwin Thompson (the 5'8" skinny guy who I was told could bench press dumptrucks), and LeSean McCoy was the height of it. I don't think they ever dressed all four guys. Somebody would always be on these boards, infuriated their guy was inactive.

 

[the moops]

Either way this is a RBBC I am now staying away from.

Definitely stay away this weekend, and maybe more. Too early to say whether it will be a committee for the year though

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Unless carrying 4 RBs on game day is a thing for Reid.

It's not. We've seen Reid's RBBCs like these. Damien Williams, Darrell Williams, Darwin Thompson (the 5'8" skinny guy who I was told could bench press dumptrucks), and LeSean McCoy was the height of it. I don't think they ever dressed all four guys. Somebody would always be on these boards, infuriated their guy was inactive.

McCoy, didn't Lev Bell briefly put on a Chiefs uniform? I think Reid likes to take in RBs that have fallen to the waste side. Maybe he just likes having a lunch buddy
I feel like there has been an over the hill Vet almost every year that appears after a major injury but then never really make a big impact
That's why I think Hunt is the clear RB3 in that mix right now
Who were the Chiefs going to sign that would have made everyone breathe a sigh of relief that took Steele this week?

 

[rockaction]

Who were the Chiefs going to sign that would have made everyone breathe a sigh of relief that took Steele this week?

That's the great question. There are backs out there that they could trade for that I think would cause much more consternation if you're a Steele waiver wire guy.

 

[Big Nate]

This is developing.
"Chiefs signed RB Keaontay Ingram from their practice squad to the active roster."

So Ingram just took Pacheco's spot on the active roster. Originally I thought Hunt would get brought up on Sunday to take that spot. Ingram will no longer go back to the practice squad. He is on the team unless they release him. And I do not envision them to carry 4 RBs on game day. So now it's Steele/Perine/Ingram.

The big question now is if Hunt gets brought up on game day from the practice squad who's spot does he take? But the Ingram move tells you something. I doubt Hunt plays this weekend. Unless carrying 4 RBs on game day is a thing for Reid.

I believe you are on to something here with this post and your next. Ingram might be given a one time opportunity to see what he can do while Hunt gets up to speed on the PR. If Ingram doesn't do well with his opportunity maybe we see Hunt the following week. Not a bad idea to see what they have in Ingram but it very well could be a 2 or 3-headed monster at RB position.

 

[Big Nate]

I had a decision to make in one league whether to drop Emanuel Wilson for Hunt and decided to keep Wilson. For all I know Hunt doesn't even make it off the practice squad, or isn't a factor if he does. What I do know right now is that if Jacobs goes down I would be sorry I dropped Wilson.

I'm with you here with Wilson. He's the clear #2 with a potential opportunity for a full workload if Jacobs gets injured. I'm holding Wilson as well.

 

[Bri]

This is developing.
"Chiefs signed RB Keaontay Ingram from their practice squad to the active roster."

So Ingram just took Pacheco's spot on the active roster. Originally I thought Hunt would get brought up on Sunday to take that spot. Ingram will no longer go back to the practice squad. He is on the team unless they release him. And I do not envision them to carry 4 RBs on game day. So now it's Steele/Perine/Ingram.

The big question now is if Hunt gets brought up on game day from the practice squad who's spot does he take? But the Ingram move tells you something. I doubt Hunt plays this weekend. Unless carrying 4 RBs on game day is a thing for Reid.

To add.
If we are now looking at how this Sunday might look like.
Is Ingram that dark horse starter that we have all dismissed? Is Reid playing a chess game here?
Either way this is a RBBC I am now staying away from.

Reid that hates your fantasy teams is spectacular at using RBs to do what they do best and.....usually just that. This makes me think what I mentioned or some of Belichick's shares.

Teams also though are catching on to what I said all summer- backs and TEs and LBs that can run are all more valuable on ST than before. Idk which of these backs could just be a ST move

 

[barackdhouse]

Pretty quiet in here for how much FAAB he went for last night. Myself included. Honestly no idea whatsoever what to expect here. Would love to believe they want him to be the main guy as they try for a historic 3rd Super Bowl in a row. He knows the system, was perhaps hurt last year, there is reason to think he could be the guy. And soon. I blew a ton on him and won a few close bids. Won a few where only a couple bucks would have done it.

For reference, in my FPCs and Main Events,

Won bids for Hunt 234-179
Lost bids for Hunt 319-170 (I bid 145)
Won bids for Hunt 244-115
Won bids for Hunt 234-199
Won bids for Hunt 167-59
Lost bids for Hunt 337-285 (I bid 177)
Won bid for Hunt 166-0 effing gross
Lost bids for Hunt 251-189
Won bids for Hunt 233-45
Won bid for Hunt 234-0 wanna know what's grosser than gross?
Lost bids for Hunt 378-219 (I bid 144)
Won bid for Hunt 57-0 ok then
Won bids for Hunt 333-35

*Every* season there are at least six teams with nearly all of their FAAB budget intact. I might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

The obvious (and worthy) counter is that someone else will pop up later in the season and I won't have the budget left at that point to pick them up.

Yes that is likely true, but I want to win *now*. And a couple of these squads really need a RB at the moment.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That backfield is messy. So so messy.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

For a 7-8 week period, no one.

That said, the last I saw Hunt he looked like a plodder, and will likely lose a lot of work to Perine and some to Steele & [other].

The Chiefs depth chart currently has Perine as the starter and Steele as a FB. Probably meaningless.

But when Pacheco comes back in ~8 weeks, Hunt’s value likely evaporates - I'm a little concerned that he shows enough to put a dent into Pacheco’s touches. Of all possible injuries, a broken bone is among the most predictable. Provided no complications (none have been reported & from what I’ve read it was a fairly minor fracture)

That backfield is messy. I’m not convinced investing in it is a sharp move.

But I’ve been wrong before.

 

[barackdhouse]

That backfield is messy. So so messy.

Yes it is. You know what else is messy? One of my squads has AJ Brown, Nacua, Walker, Mixon and Engram and I'm somehow 2-0.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That backfield is messy. So so messy.

Yes it is. You know what else is messy? One of my squads has AJ Brown, Nacua, Walker, Mixon and Engram and I'm somehow 2-0.

Yikes. lol

 

[markrc99]

I might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

I don't know, I've added Hunt in a couple leagues but I really like WR Alec Pierce & I've added him to all three of my teams. It further seems you could use help at that same position.

 

[barackdhouse]

might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

For a 7-8 week period, no one.

That said, the last I saw Hunt he looked like a plodder, and will likely lose a lot of work to Perine and some to Steele & [other].

The Chiefs depth chart currently has Perine as the starter and Steele as a FB. Probably meaningless.

But when Pacheco comes back in ~8 weeks, Hunt’s value likely evaporates - I'm a little concerned that he shows enough to put a dent into Pacheco’s touches. Of all possible injuries, a broken bone is among the most predictable. Provided no complications (none have been reported & from what I’ve read it was a fairly minor fracture)

That backfield is messy. I’m not convinced investing in it is a sharp move.

But I’ve been wrong before.

The flip side is that if he does blow up, the most suboptimal outcome would have been realized. That is, if one doesn't go out and spend to win these types of players and then they explode, that is causing your team to lose value. Not just individually in a bubble but also because an opponent would be stronger. And in a big tourney where 1st place is a million, that means over a thousand teams or so just got stronger.

For me the cost/benefit analysis is this:

The downsides

Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you don't start the player so it doesn't hurt a ton
Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you also think they are worth starting and then they aren't and you lose matchup(s). That's bad.

vs

Not investing and they don't do anything and you were right all along. Ok no harm no foul.
Not investing and they blow up and change leagues, even if for only a 5-7 week stretch. This is the worst of the worst IMO.

The upsides

Investing high FAAB and they blow up and you gain tons of leverage vs your league and the larger field
Investing high FAAB and they are helpful during bye weeks and serve as worthwhile chalk.

vs

Not investing and they blow up - is there any upside? and is there any value in picking players up *purely* to block your opponent?

***note I am talking specifically about my FPC and Main Event teams where the regular season is only 12 weeks and only the top 4 seeds advance. By week 7 many teams are either out of it mathematically or in spirit and stop putting in bids and the entire calculus of FAAB changes. Which is why FAAB advice and articles and comments are often in percentages. I spent basically 25% of my budget on Hunt. We are 17% done with our regular season prior to that bidding run, so it isn't a super dramatic increase over a chalk weekly baseline bid. If I stand pat for another couple weeks on FAAB then I'll be under the weekly baseline (in two weeks we'll be 33% done with our regular season).

TLDR If Hunt explodes I need him. That is all.

 

[barackdhouse]

I might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

I don't know, I've added Hunt in a couple leagues but I really like WR Alec Pierce & I've added him to all three of my teams. It further seems you could use help at that same position.

I suppose I should have specified that I'm talking specifically and only about the RB position. If Hunt explodes then flex comes into play but there are plenty of QBs, WRs and TEs to talk about in terms of this, but no I was thinking only about RB in this context. I still believe them to be the most scarce and valuable commodity out there but I can pick up other positions too.

I have quite a few WR/TE heavy teams and often hit the wire really really hard for RB.

 

[barackdhouse]

I might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

I don't know, I've added Hunt in a couple leagues but I really like WR Alec Pierce & I've added him to all three of my teams. It further seems you could use help at that same position.

oh you meant on that one squad I posted. yes for sure WR help is good too there.

 

[steelwind]

The only path forward right now is to assess Hunt's on field play + usage. And I firmly believe we won't get to see that for sure this week.
Maybe next week? As it's setup right now for them to promote Hunt to the game day roster there requires an injury or they release Steele/Perine/Ingram.
Because Steele/Perine/Ingram are currently under active roster contracts.
Unless they bring 4 RBs on game day rosters I don't envision us seeing Hunt anytime soon. So this waiver move is purely for the long run. Taking up a roster spot on our FF teams.

 

[Gally]

But I’ve been wrong before.

Say it ain't so....

 

[rockaction]

I still believe them to be the most scarce and valuable commodity out there

This is my experience, and even though my experience isn't so vast, a bellcow is like seeing Radiohead play "Creep" live.

 

[barackdhouse]

The only path forward right now is to assess Hunt's on field play + usage. And I firmly believe we won't get to see that for sure this week.
Maybe next week? As it's setup right now for them to promote Hunt to the game day roster there requires an injury or they release Steele/Perine/Ingram.
Because Steele/Perine/Ingram are currently under active roster contracts.
Unless they bring 4 RBs on game day rosters I don't envision us seeing Hunt anytime soon. So this waiver move is purely for the long run. Taking up a roster spot on our FF teams.

Perine is the one I would expect to be left out. If Hunt plays that is. And today I would agree that he doesn't play this weekend.

Would Perine absolutely have to be released or could he be demoted to practice squad? I thought they had until Saturday to do that.

 

[habsfan]

Every year there seems to be a race where people get so preoccupied with picking the right horse, they forget to notice the prize is a bag of rocks.

 

[barackdhouse]

Every year there seems to be a race where people get so preoccupied with picking the right horse, they forget to notice the prize is a bag of rocks.

No. The bag of rocks outcome is absolutely within range and maybe even much more on the likely side than not. The risk you speak of is 100% noticeable by all of us.

The real question is personal risk tolerance. Winning the bid was step 1. Now step 2 is if he is active who has the balls to start him. And if he stays inactive how long before cutting him.

We're not forgetting anything. He looked terrible to me the last couple years. I'm willing to buy his core muscle injuries held him back (how wouldn't it) and to give step 1 a swing. I need to hear more positive news from Reid and to hear he's the guy and all that before I get to step 2. But you don't pick the right horse by not showing up.

 

[habsfan]

Every year there seems to be a race where people get so preoccupied with picking the right horse, they forget to notice the prize is a bag of rocks.

No. The bag of rocks outcome is absolutely within range and maybe even much more on the likely side than not. The risk you speak of is 100% noticeable by all of us.

The real question is personal risk tolerance. Winning the bid was step 1. Now step 2 is if he is active who has the balls to start him. And if he stays inactive how long before cutting him.

We're not forgetting anything. He looked terrible to me the last couple years. I'm willing to buy his core muscle injuries held him back (how wouldn't it) and to give step 1 a swing. I need to hear more positive news from Reid and to hear he's the guy and all that before I get to step 2. But you don't pick the right horse by not showing up.

I guess I was more "top downing" the situation, which seems to be some percentage of Pacheco's numbers divided up to three (four?) ways.

 

[barackdhouse]

Every year there seems to be a race where people get so preoccupied with picking the right horse, they forget to notice the prize is a bag of rocks.

No. The bag of rocks outcome is absolutely within range and maybe even much more on the likely side than not. The risk you speak of is 100% noticeable by all of us.

The real question is personal risk tolerance. Winning the bid was step 1. Now step 2 is if he is active who has the balls to start him. And if he stays inactive how long before cutting him.

We're not forgetting anything. He looked terrible to me the last couple years. I'm willing to buy his core muscle injuries held him back (how wouldn't it) and to give step 1 a swing. I need to hear more positive news from Reid and to hear he's the guy and all that before I get to step 2. But you don't pick the right horse by not showing up.

I guess I was more "top downing" the situation, which seems to be some percentage of Pacheco's numbers divided up to three (four?) ways.

Yep, and that is probably the most likely scenario.

If Hunt is physically fit enough to compete like any of his former Chief self, I do think they hand him the keys though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

For a 7-8 week period, no one.

That said, the last I saw Hunt he looked like a plodder, and will likely lose a lot of work to Perine and some to Steele & [other].

The Chiefs depth chart currently has Perine as the starter and Steele as a FB. Probably meaningless.

But when Pacheco comes back in ~8 weeks, Hunt’s value likely evaporates - I'm a little concerned that he shows enough to put a dent into Pacheco’s touches. Of all possible injuries, a broken bone is among the most predictable. Provided no complications (none have been reported & from what I’ve read it was a fairly minor fracture)

That backfield is messy. I’m not convinced investing in it is a sharp move.

But I’ve been wrong before.

The flip side is that if he does blow up, the most suboptimal outcome would have been realized. That is, if one doesn't go out and spend to win these types of players and then they explode, that is causing your team to lose value. Not just individually in a bubble but also because an opponent would be stronger. And in a big tourney where 1st place is a million, that means over a thousand teams or so just got stronger.

For me the cost/benefit analysis is this:

The downsides

Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you don't start the player so it doesn't hurt a ton
Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you also think they are worth starting and then they aren't and you lose matchup(s). That's bad.

vs

Not investing and they don't do anything and you were right all along. Ok no harm no foul.
Not investing and they blow up and change leagues, even if for only a 5-7 week stretch. This is the worst of the worst IMO.

The upsides

Investing high FAAB and they blow up and you gain tons of leverage vs your league and the larger field
Investing high FAAB and they are helpful during bye weeks and serve as worthwhile chalk.

vs

Not investing and they blow up - is there any upside? and is there any value in picking players up *purely* to block your opponent?

***note I am talking specifically about my FPC and Main Event teams where the regular season is only 12 weeks and only the top 4 seeds advance. By week 7 many teams are either out of it mathematically or in spirit and stop putting in bids and the entire calculus of FAAB changes. Which is why FAAB advice and articles and comments are often in percentages. I spent basically 25% of my budget on Hunt. We are 17% done with our regular season prior to that bidding run, so it isn't a super dramatic increase over a chalk weekly baseline bid. If I stand pat for another couple weeks on FAAB then I'll be under the weekly baseline (in two weeks we'll be 33% done with our regular season).

TLDR If Hunt explodes I need him. That is all.

I don’t agree with your stated downside.

The downside is you blew all your FAAB budget, Hunt is middling / non-useful for FF, and then when a RB pops up later who is you won’t be able to bid.

To me that’s the downside.

As for the upside, isn’t that capped by Pacheco’s likely week 9-10 return?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is my experience, and even though my experience isn't so vast, a bellcow is like seeing Radiohead play "Creep" live.

Having seen Radiohead play “Creep” live (Tourhout festival, Belgium, 1992/3-ish) I can confidently say that rostering LT2 in his prime was a far more riveting experience.

I would put the chances of Kareem Hunt circa 2024 delivering a similar experience at approximately .00000000001%

(so you’re saying there’s a chance)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But I’ve been wrong before.

Say it ain't so....

Laugh reaction

 

[barackdhouse]

might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

For a 7-8 week period, no one.

That said, the last I saw Hunt he looked like a plodder, and will likely lose a lot of work to Perine and some to Steele & [other].

The Chiefs depth chart currently has Perine as the starter and Steele as a FB. Probably meaningless.

But when Pacheco comes back in ~8 weeks, Hunt’s value likely evaporates - I'm a little concerned that he shows enough to put a dent into Pacheco’s touches. Of all possible injuries, a broken bone is among the most predictable. Provided no complications (none have been reported & from what I’ve read it was a fairly minor fracture)

That backfield is messy. I’m not convinced investing in it is a sharp move.

But I’ve been wrong before.

The flip side is that if he does blow up, the most suboptimal outcome would have been realized. That is, if one doesn't go out and spend to win these types of players and then they explode, that is causing your team to lose value. Not just individually in a bubble but also because an opponent would be stronger. And in a big tourney where 1st place is a million, that means over a thousand teams or so just got stronger.

For me the cost/benefit analysis is this:

The downsides

Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you don't start the player so it doesn't hurt a ton
Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you also think they are worth starting and then they aren't and you lose matchup(s). That's bad.

vs

Not investing and they don't do anything and you were right all along. Ok no harm no foul.
Not investing and they blow up and change leagues, even if for only a 5-7 week stretch. This is the worst of the worst IMO.

The upsides

Investing high FAAB and they blow up and you gain tons of leverage vs your league and the larger field
Investing high FAAB and they are helpful during bye weeks and serve as worthwhile chalk.

vs

Not investing and they blow up - is there any upside? and is there any value in picking players up *purely* to block your opponent?

***note I am talking specifically about my FPC and Main Event teams where the regular season is only 12 weeks and only the top 4 seeds advance. By week 7 many teams are either out of it mathematically or in spirit and stop putting in bids and the entire calculus of FAAB changes. Which is why FAAB advice and articles and comments are often in percentages. I spent basically 25% of my budget on Hunt. We are 17% done with our regular season prior to that bidding run, so it isn't a super dramatic increase over a chalk weekly baseline bid. If I stand pat for another couple weeks on FAAB then I'll be under the weekly baseline (in two weeks we'll be 33% done with our regular season).

TLDR If Hunt explodes I need him. That is all.

I don’t agree with your stated downside.

The downside is you blew all your FAAB budget, Hunt is middling / non-useful for FF, and then when a RB pops up later who is you won’t be able to bid.

To me that’s the downside.

As for the upside, isn’t that capped by Pacheco’s likely week 9-10 return?

I addressed two of your points here already. I said I spent 25% of my budget (and showed the bids above). Not all of it. I still have 75% left. I explained that. There is an ocean of mathematical difference between what I said and what you said. I didn't "blow all my FAAB budget" - I used around 25%. In a couple others I got him for much less.

And I also defined the upside as including only a 5-7 week stretch. I literally acknowledged that cap.

So, if I say the sky is blue, don't come at me and say "I disagree. I think the sky is blue." Please.

If you wanted to look at it from the perspective of someone spending all their budget that is one thing, but I literally took the effort to explain how 25% was barely above a weekly baseline. In two or three weeks I'll have the biggest budget left of my leaguemates.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

For a 7-8 week period, no one.

That said, the last I saw Hunt he looked like a plodder, and will likely lose a lot of work to Perine and some to Steele & [other].

The Chiefs depth chart currently has Perine as the starter and Steele as a FB. Probably meaningless.

But when Pacheco comes back in ~8 weeks, Hunt’s value likely evaporates - I'm a little concerned that he shows enough to put a dent into Pacheco’s touches. Of all possible injuries, a broken bone is among the most predictable. Provided no complications (none have been reported & from what I’ve read it was a fairly minor fracture)

That backfield is messy. I’m not convinced investing in it is a sharp move.

But I’ve been wrong before.

The flip side is that if he does blow up, the most suboptimal outcome would have been realized. That is, if one doesn't go out and spend to win these types of players and then they explode, that is causing your team to lose value. Not just individually in a bubble but also because an opponent would be stronger. And in a big tourney where 1st place is a million, that means over a thousand teams or so just got stronger.

For me the cost/benefit analysis is this:

The downsides

Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you don't start the player so it doesn't hurt a ton
Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you also think they are worth starting and then they aren't and you lose matchup(s). That's bad.

vs

Not investing and they don't do anything and you were right all along. Ok no harm no foul.
Not investing and they blow up and change leagues, even if for only a 5-7 week stretch. This is the worst of the worst IMO.

The upsides

Investing high FAAB and they blow up and you gain tons of leverage vs your league and the larger field
Investing high FAAB and they are helpful during bye weeks and serve as worthwhile chalk.

vs

Not investing and they blow up - is there any upside? and is there any value in picking players up *purely* to block your opponent?

***note I am talking specifically about my FPC and Main Event teams where the regular season is only 12 weeks and only the top 4 seeds advance. By week 7 many teams are either out of it mathematically or in spirit and stop putting in bids and the entire calculus of FAAB changes. Which is why FAAB advice and articles and comments are often in percentages. I spent basically 25% of my budget on Hunt. We are 17% done with our regular season prior to that bidding run, so it isn't a super dramatic increase over a chalk weekly baseline bid. If I stand pat for another couple weeks on FAAB then I'll be under the weekly baseline (in two weeks we'll be 33% done with our regular season).

TLDR If Hunt explodes I need him. That is all.

I don’t agree with your stated downside.

The downside is you blew all your FAAB budget, Hunt is middling / non-useful for FF, and then when a RB pops up later who is you won’t be able to bid.

To me that’s the downside.

As for the upside, isn’t that capped by Pacheco’s likely week 9-10 return?

I addressed two of your points here already. I said I spent 25% of my budget (and showed the bids above). Not all of it. I still have 75% left. I explained that. There is an ocean of mathematical difference between what I said and what you said. I didn't "blow all my FAAB budget" - I used around 25%. In a couple others I got him for much less.

And I also defined the upside as including only a 5-7 week stretch. I literally acknowledged that cap.

So, if I say the sky is blue, don't come at me and say "I disagree. I think the sky is blue." Please.

If you wanted to look at it from the perspective of someone spending all their budget that is one thing, but I literally took the effort to explain how 25% was barely above a weekly baseline. In two or three weeks I'll have the biggest budget left of my leaguemates.

That’s fair. So long as you can still be competitive with future bids.

I guess I’m just having a hard time jibing your perceived/stated upside with that 5-7 (I think it’s safely 8) week cap.

But hey, it’s your budget. Have at it, and best of luck.

IMO there’s an equal or greater chance that the Chiefs go pass heavy &/or run more gadgets with Worthy on end-arounds, but we’re all just guessing here.

It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out.

 

[barackdhouse]

might be lighting this stuff on fire here but tell me who has more upside off the wire at this point?

For a 7-8 week period, no one.

That said, the last I saw Hunt he looked like a plodder, and will likely lose a lot of work to Perine and some to Steele & [other].

The Chiefs depth chart currently has Perine as the starter and Steele as a FB. Probably meaningless.

But when Pacheco comes back in ~8 weeks, Hunt’s value likely evaporates - I'm a little concerned that he shows enough to put a dent into Pacheco’s touches. Of all possible injuries, a broken bone is among the most predictable. Provided no complications (none have been reported & from what I’ve read it was a fairly minor fracture)

That backfield is messy. I’m not convinced investing in it is a sharp move.

But I’ve been wrong before.

The flip side is that if he does blow up, the most suboptimal outcome would have been realized. That is, if one doesn't go out and spend to win these types of players and then they explode, that is causing your team to lose value. Not just individually in a bubble but also because an opponent would be stronger. And in a big tourney where 1st place is a million, that means over a thousand teams or so just got stronger.

For me the cost/benefit analysis is this:

The downsides

Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you don't start the player so it doesn't hurt a ton
Investing high FAAB and it ends up going for nothing but you also think they are worth starting and then they aren't and you lose matchup(s). That's bad.

vs

Not investing and they don't do anything and you were right all along. Ok no harm no foul.
Not investing and they blow up and change leagues, even if for only a 5-7 week stretch. This is the worst of the worst IMO.

The upsides

Investing high FAAB and they blow up and you gain tons of leverage vs your league and the larger field
Investing high FAAB and they are helpful during bye weeks and serve as worthwhile chalk.

vs

Not investing and they blow up - is there any upside? and is there any value in picking players up *purely* to block your opponent?

***note I am talking specifically about my FPC and Main Event teams where the regular season is only 12 weeks and only the top 4 seeds advance. By week 7 many teams are either out of it mathematically or in spirit and stop putting in bids and the entire calculus of FAAB changes. Which is why FAAB advice and articles and comments are often in percentages. I spent basically 25% of my budget on Hunt. We are 17% done with our regular season prior to that bidding run, so it isn't a super dramatic increase over a chalk weekly baseline bid. If I stand pat for another couple weeks on FAAB then I'll be under the weekly baseline (in two weeks we'll be 33% done with our regular season).

TLDR If Hunt explodes I need him. That is all.

I don’t agree with your stated downside.

The downside is you blew all your FAAB budget, Hunt is middling / non-useful for FF, and then when a RB pops up later who is you won’t be able to bid.

To me that’s the downside.

As for the upside, isn’t that capped by Pacheco’s likely week 9-10 return?

I addressed two of your points here already. I said I spent 25% of my budget (and showed the bids above). Not all of it. I still have 75% left. I explained that. There is an ocean of mathematical difference between what I said and what you said. I didn't "blow all my FAAB budget" - I used around 25%. In a couple others I got him for much less.

And I also defined the upside as including only a 5-7 week stretch. I literally acknowledged that cap.

So, if I say the sky is blue, don't come at me and say "I disagree. I think the sky is blue." Please.

If you wanted to look at it from the perspective of someone spending all their budget that is one thing, but I literally took the effort to explain how 25% was barely above a weekly baseline. In two or three weeks I'll have the biggest budget left of my leaguemates.

That’s fair. So long as you can still be competitive with future bids.

I guess I’m just having a hard time jibing your perceived/stated upside with that 5-7 (I think it’s safely 8) week cap.

In those FPC leagues, 8 weeks of starting RB usage (by definition because we're talking about upside - if he isn't startable then it becomes part of the downside equation) isn't a homerun. It's a grandslam. It's early though. It's ok to win games in early innings, it doesn't have to wait until the end. If Pacheco comes back and renders Hunt useless thereafter, but he had been a useful starter for 8 weeks, then I'm winning. Gotta finish top 4 by end of week 12. Gotta finish those 12 weeks as the 1 or 2 seed in order to get into the Big Dance for the million (weeks 15-17), or win the league championship in week 14. It's nice to get in as a 3 or 4 seed and get in by winning wks 13&14 but it's hard to do. It's better to get in as a 1 or 2. In this upside scenario I will have increased my chances *significantly* by acquiring and using a starting level RB for 8/12 weeks. That's a lot of winning. But conversely, and this IS A ZERO SUM game, if Hunt performs at that level, an opponent acquiring and using him for those 8 weeks would be *equally* negative value against you in getting to those 1 and 2 seeds.

Put another way, if he becomes the guy, he will swing leagues. Even if it's only until Pacheco comes back.

Zero RB drafters like me live for this stuff. We take tons of swings and a lot of misses. I really want this one.

 

[barackdhouse]

CEH still a darkhorse

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

CEH still a darkhorse

Is he still on the active roster? PS? Or is he some sort of injury designation with PTSD or whatever it was?

His situation seems murky at best.

 

[JohnnyU]

CEH still a darkhorse

....more like CEH is still a donkey.

 

[Faust]

Charles Goldman
#Chiefs RB coach Todd Pinkston on RB Kareem Hunt: "He has it. He still has it. We've just got to get him up to speed. A lot of the stuff he's doing now, it's coming back to him."

x.com

x.com

 

[dmac37]

I have been a huge Hunt stan since his rookie year. Ever since he landed in Cleveland I was praying that he would move on to somewhere else, KC would have been great for a few years. At this stage I just don't see it after last year and now another year older. I have taken a shot with Steele as my 5th round pick in our rookie draft, hoping he is the next Payton Hillis.