RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (2 Viewers)

[C-Bound]

James Conner smells like the 2018 fantasy SOD all of a sudden. He looked like dual threat beast this preseason and is a must start until Laveon reports.

And he's still sitting out on the wire after our draft.  I know I should grab him but I'm literally loaded at RB and trying to trade some of what I have (what's another horse in the stable right?) 

 

[LawFitz]

And he's still sitting out on the wire after our draft.  I know I should grab him but I'm literally loaded at RB and trying to trade some of what I have (what's another horse in the stable right?) 

Drop your kicker, pick up Conner and then hit the phones.

 

[Godsbrother]

But he can enter FA with less tread on his tires thereby increasing his value on the open market.  Versus exposing himself for 10 games to catastrophic injury that would surely tank what he could secure...?  I think it's something he'd weigh.

Possibly but sitting out 10 games would cost him close to $9 million.   That is a huge chunk of change to pass up, especially if you still out 10 weeks and then blow your knee out week 11 or 12.   You get injured that late and you can almost certainly write off at least half of the following season.  

The franchise tag is a bad deal for the players but the one benefit is the huge salary you get by signing your tender.   I will be very surprised if he walks away from that.  

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Possibly but sitting out 10 games would cost him close to $9 million.   That is a huge chunk of change to pass up, especially if you still out 10 weeks and then blow your knee out week 11 or 12.   You get injured that late and you can almost certainly write off at least half of the following season.  

The franchise tag is a bad deal for the players but the one benefit is the huge salary you get by signing your tender.   I will be very surprised if he walks away from that.  

Ultimately, I think the sitting out option for Bell is much more viable this year than last.  He got a big chunk of change last year, Gurley has reset the long term RB FA market.  Mack set the 'what will another team pay for my services' overage market.  I think Gurley got $45M guaranteed.  A healthy Bell exceeds $50M...maybe more.

I'm not saying he will sit out.  But if I were him...it would be MUCH more on the table now, than this time a year ago.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

LeVeon already said himself that he would be there for the first game months ago. I doubt he goes back on what he said publicly.  That is what his teammates heard and are counting on. IMO

 

[Godsbrother]

Ultimately, I think the sitting out option for Bell is much more viable this year than last.  He got a big chunk of change last year, Gurley has reset the long term RB FA market.  Mack set the 'what will another team pay for my services' overage market.  I think Gurley got $45M guaranteed.  A healthy Bell exceeds $50M...maybe more.

I'm not saying he will sit out.  But if I were him...it would be MUCH more on the table now, than this time a year ago.

Could be, it will be interesting to see what he does.   All he has to do to get $14+ million right now is sign his tender.  Then he plays out the season AND gets his big FA next year. 

This is what I think he will do.

 

[habsfan]

Ultimately, I think the sitting out option for Bell is much more viable this year than last.  He got a big chunk of change last year, Gurley has reset the long term RB FA market.  Mack set the 'what will another team pay for my services' overage market.  I think Gurley got $45M guaranteed.  A healthy Bell exceeds $50M...maybe more.

I'm not saying he will sit out.  But if I were him...it would be MUCH more on the table now, than this time a year ago.

I think this year is clearly not last year. The extent to which he plays it differently remains to be seen.

The challenge is how does Bell, his agent, the Steelers or his potential suitors effectively "handicap" the injury risk of 6 or 10 or 16 games or for that matter one more season of wear and tear? How do you translate that to an actual number (increased or diminished market value)?

Maybe I'm playing Checkers instead of Chess but these guys are never more than one play away from serious injury and there's no way to know when (or if) it will happen. If I'm Bell I think my plan would be to focus on the things I can control - playing football and collecting my cheques. Can you do what these guys do if you're worrying about getting hurt? Do we know that a Bell who plays six games wrapped in bubble wrap will be more valuable than one who plays 16?

 

[C-Bound]

Could be, it will be interesting to see what he does.   All he has to do to get $14+ million right now is sign his tender.  Then he plays out the season AND gets his big FA next year. 

This is what I think he will do.

Any chance he gets paid by someone else next year if he does that?

 

[fightingillini]

Drop your kicker, pick up Conner and then hit the phones.

Preferably to the Bell owner.  He's probably freaking out right now.

 

[BoltNlava]

Defences have caught up to some extent ....I say stayout of the fray until you are paid!

 

[fightingillini]

Could be, it will be interesting to see what he does.   All he has to do to get $14+ million right now is sign his tender.  Then he plays out the season AND gets his big FA next year. 

This is what I think he will do.

You're assuming Bell is thinking rationally.  He's not.

He turned down 70 freaking million dollars from the Steelers.  The guy is tremendously talented dope.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ultimately, I think the sitting out option for Bell is much more viable this year than last.  He got a big chunk of change last year, Gurley has reset the long term RB FA market.  Mack set the 'what will another team pay for my services' overage market.  I think Gurley got $45M guaranteed.  A healthy Bell exceeds $50M...maybe more.

I'm not saying he will sit out.  But if I were him...it would be MUCH more on the table now, than this time a year ago.

I don't see how giving up $9MM that he'll never see again makes sense. The odds are strongly in favor of that future money will be there for him either way.

How many career ending injuries have we seen from contact? - and if we are worried about and ACL tear, McKinnon just showed that can happen in practice so how would playing 6 games be any safer than 16 games? I'm also not sure an early ACL tear would cost him one dime in guaranteed money anyway since players come back from that injury all the time now without losing anything.

 

[Grahamburn]

I don't see how giving up $9MM that he'll never see again makes sense. The odds are strongly in favor of that future money will be there for him either way.

How many career ending injuries have we seen from contact? - and if we are worried about and ACL tear, McKinnon just showed that can happen in practice so how would playing 6 games be any safer than 16 games? I'm also not sure an early ACL tear would cost him one dime in guaranteed money anyway since players come back from that injury all the time now without losing anything.

Really?  That's some Jerry Jones logic there.

Skipping ten games this year keeps him fresh for the new team that is willing to pay him what he wants in 2019.  Simple as that.  Why continue to wear yourself out for the Steelers?  They paid him literally peanuts on his rookie deal. 

I personally think he should have accepted their extension offer, but now that he hasn't it makes sense to wait until the last possible moment to preserve as much of your body as you can for the new team.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Really?  That's some Jerry Jones logic there.

Skipping ten games this year keeps him fresh for the new team that is willing to pay him what he wants in 2019.  Simple as that.  Why continue to wear yourself out for the Steelers?  They paid him literally peanuts on his rookie deal. 

Yes, really - if you read what I said in context.

Some team is going to pay him whether he is "fresh" or if he's played in 16 games. We all know that.

And the Steelers would be paying him $900k PER GAME this season it's not like their asking him to play for tips.

 

[Faust]

How Steelers get Le'Veon Bell game-ready in five days

 

[Jed]

I’m getting vibes this may be a long-term holdout situation.

No chance. He gets paid almost a mil per game. 

 

[Grahamburn]

Yes, really - if you read what I said in context.

Some team is going to pay him whether he is "fresh" or if he's played in 16 games. We all know that.

And the Steelers would be paying him $900k PER GAME this season it's not like their asking him to play for tips.

It's significant money, but maybe he isn't interested in taking the beating and risking his body for a franchise he won't be playing for next season. 

Hell, he could probably get a loan against his next contract for the $9M he'll "lose" by holding out and then ask his next team to pay it off for him when he signs.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Hell, he could probably get a loan against his next contract for the $9M he'll "lose" by holding out and then ask his next team to pay it off for him when he signs.

That nets him zero dollars.

 

[rockaction]

Defences have caught up to some extent ....I say stayout of the fray until you are paid!

I think I know what you're getting at here and I agree with it.  You're saying that they've adapted to his running style, are playing sort of a contain on the edge and  breaking him down in the middle, right?

 

[Grahamburn]

That nets him zero dollars.

True, but he could go on a $9M vacation for 10 weeks!

 

[Gopher State]

Starting to worry, it’s getting late for even to play week one

 

[Gopher State]

Starting to worry, it’s getting late for him to play week one

 

[ghostguy123]

But he can enter FA with less tread on his tires thereby increasing his value on the open market.  Versus exposing himself for 10 games to catastrophic injury that would surely tank what he could secure...?  I think it's something he'd weigh.

If he sits 10 games he loses like 9 million bucks, then if he gets hurt in the one of the last 6 (or 8-9) games he hurts his chances of a huge deal.

If he plays week 1 and gets hurt, he gets his entire franchise tag, then has an entire year to recover from an injury, and is more likely to land a big deal than if he got hurt week 15.

Obviously more games would mean greater chance of injury, but it's rare these days for an injury to derail a guy for the rest of his career.  It happen, but it's rare.  

I still say he does not miss any games, unless he reports so late this week he has to sit week 1 (which is what he probably wants to do, one less game to play while still getting paid).  

 

[ghostguy123]

So if they make the playoffs, does he even play?  Can't he just not play and say F ya'll?  

 

[Steeler]

So if they make the playoffs, does he even play?  Can't he just not play and say F ya'll?  

Wouldn't that hurt his chances with a new team?  Want to maximize your earning potential within the confines of the CBA is one thing - flat out quitting on your teammates with a chance to win a Super Bowl is a whole different thing.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I don't see how giving up $9MM that he'll never see again makes sense. The odds are strongly in favor of that future money will be there for him either way.

How many career ending injuries have we seen from contact? - and if we are worried about and ACL tear, McKinnon just showed that can happen in practice so how would playing 6 games be any safer than 16 games? I'm also not sure an early ACL tear would cost him one dime in guaranteed money anyway since players come back from that injury all the time now without losing anything.

Because it's 10 fewer games?  And 10 fewer weeks of practice?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

If he sits 10 games he loses like 9 million bucks, then if he gets hurt in the one of the last 6 (or 8-9) games he hurts his chances of a huge deal.

If he plays week 1 and gets hurt, he gets his entire franchise tag, then has an entire year to recover from an injury, and is more likely to land a big deal than if he got hurt week 15.

Obviously more games would mean greater chance of injury, but it's rare these days for an injury to derail a guy for the rest of his career.  It happen, but it's rare.  

I still say he does not miss any games, unless he reports so late this week he has to sit week 1 (which is what he probably wants to do, one less game to play while still getting paid).  

But who is paying him top dollar on the open market if that happens?  He'll be entering his Year 27 season coming back from an ACL meaning that his ability to gel with new teammates will have been compromised.  And we all know how 'fast' RB's age.

This could all be moot tomorrow.  Likely is.  BUT...I can see a very valid path to Bell simply stating 'see you Week 10'.  I gots to take care of me and mine...$9M is a lot, but he's not coming close to $50M guaranteed if a worst case scenario unfolds.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wouldn't that hurt his chances with a new team?  Want to maximize your earning potential within the confines of the CBA is one thing - flat out quitting on your teammates with a chance to win a Super Bowl is a whole different thing.

Is that much different than sitting out 10 weeks to start the year?

NONE of what he is doing looks good for a future deal, but everyone is convinced ONE team will pay through the nose no matter what he does.  And they are probably right.

 

[ghostguy123]

But who is paying him top dollar on the open market if that happens?  He'll be entering his Year 27 season coming back from an ACL meaning that his ability to gel with new teammates will have been compromised.  And we all know how 'fast' RB's age.

This could all be moot tomorrow.  Likely is.  BUT...I can see a very valid path to Bell simply stating 'see you Week 10'.  I gots to take care of me and mine...$9M is a lot, but he's not coming close to $50M guaranteed if a worst case scenario unfolds.

Would he get 20 million guaranteed?  30??

He gets 9 million (weeks 1-10) guaranteed if he suits up now in order to risk what, maybe 20 million if he were to have a season ending type injury?

Even if he had a terrible injury, he will still get a good chunk guaranteed next year.  Subtract that amount from 50.  How much more than 9 million would that come out to?

Not enough to make it worth sitting now.  

He plays.

 

[msudaisy26]

Wouldn't that hurt his chances with a new team?  Want to maximize your earning potential within the confines of the CBA is one thing - flat out quitting on your teammates with a chance to win a Super Bowl is a whole different thing.

Not one of these players looks at it like that. They all know it is a business and you don't have a lot of time to make money doing something that is dangerous to their long term health. 

This is a way a fan thinks. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Also, he isnt gonna get 50 million guaranteed next year anyway.  I cant see it

 

[Steeler]

Is that much different than sitting out 10 weeks to start the year?

Absolutely!  As the season progresses games are more meaningful.  Walking away just as your team is headed to the playoffs would be the worst possible move.

 

[ghostguy123]

Not one of these players looks at it like that. They all know it is a business and you don't have a lot of time to make money doing something that is dangerous to their long term health. 

This is a way a fan thinks. 

But wouldnt a future employer sort of, ya know, frown upon a guy sitting in the playoffs like that?

 

[ghostguy123]

Absolutely!  As the season progresses games are more meaningful.  Walking away just as your team is headed to the playoffs would be the worst possible move.

But it would be his smartest possible move, as there is minimal pay for those games.  If he gets a few million less guaranteed because of it, might be worth it to sit.

 

[msudaisy26]

You're assuming Bell is thinking rationally.  He's not.

He turned down 70 freaking million dollars from the Steelers.  The guy is tremendously talented dope.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the guarantees are pretty much all that matter. He turned down what in guarantees? I believe Rapport said it was 30 million, then backed off that and said like 15. 

 

[Steeler]

Not one of these players looks at it like that. They all know it is a business and you don't have a lot of time to make money doing something that is dangerous to their long term health. 

This is a way a fan thinks. 

I disagree.  The Steelers players were on his side last year during the hold out and welcomed him back with open arms.  This year they did the same thing during the holdout.  I'm positive the Steeler players would be upset if they make the playoffs and Bell sits out.  Totally different from holding out during training camp.

 

[msudaisy26]

I an trying to look this up as I go, but where are you guys seeing he will sit out the playoffs? I can't find it

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You're assuming Bell is thinking rationally.  He's not.

He turned down 70 freaking million dollars from the Steelers.  The guy is tremendously talented dope.

The deal was a joke.  They only even offered it to try and sway public opinion from the masses that don't understand the basics of how an NFL contract works.

 

[Steeler]

I an trying to look this up as I go, but where are you guys seeing he will sit out the playoffs? I can't find it

AFAIK, it's crazy speculation because the season hasn't started yet and we need something to talk about  

 

[msudaisy26]

The deal was a joke.  They only even offered it to try and sway public opinion from the masses that don't understand the basics of how an NFL contract works.

It worked though. A lot of people are it up and called him dumb and sided with the Steelers. 

 

[msudaisy26]

But wouldnt a future employer sort of, ya know, frown upon a guy sitting in the playoffs like that?

from your made up idea? You are really reaching. 

 

[ghostguy123]

from your made up idea? You are really reaching. 

I am?  Umm, ok.  This was brought up a while ago.  If a guy is 100% about his next deal and nothing else, he is gonna be willing to sit out games where he makes a million per game for 10 weeks, but wouldnt even consider sitting out games where he makes nothing?

I would bet anything that thought would be strong in his mind.

 

[fightingillini]

Correct me if I am wrong, but the guarantees are pretty much all that matter. He turned down what in guarantees? I believe Rapport said it was 30 million, then backed off that and said like 15. 

I thought it was 33 million in guarantees.  That's still a lot of coin for a RB.   But it is much less than what Gurley got in guaranteed money......45 million.

 

[BassNBrew]

Popped in for breaking news and I'm getting speculation about him sitting out the playoffs.  Might as well be discussing what he had for breakfast.

 

[ghostguy123]

Popped in for breaking news and I'm getting speculation about him sitting out the playoffs.  Might as well be discussing what he had for breakfast.

I will predict this now.  IF he sits 10 regular season games and IF the Steelers make the playoffs, I predict he does not play in the playoffs.

Given his behavior, I do not believe he would risk 40 or whatever guaranteed million for "nothing".  

 

[msudaisy26]

I am?  Umm, ok.  This was brought up a while ago.  If a guy is 100% about his next deal and nothing else, he is gonna be willing to sit out games where he makes a million per game for 10 weeks, but wouldnt even consider sitting out games where he makes nothing?

I would bet anything that thought would be strong in his mind.

 come on. You know what is in his mind. 

 

[ghostguy123]

From a risk/reward perspective, I think it makes the most sense for him to play.  Hell, he might get lucky and break his wrist like David Johnson, get his 15 million this year, then get paid next offseason.

 

[ghostguy123]

 come on. You know what is in his mind. 

Well, we do know that money and a future contract are on his mind right?  

So, uhh, yeah, I can firmly say I am convinced he would at the absolute very least consider it.

 

[msudaisy26]

I thought it was 33 million in guarantees.  That's still a lot of coin for a RB.   But it is much less than what Gurley got in guaranteed money......45 million.

It was originally reported in the 30ish million range, but Rapaport said it wasn't that much a day or 2 later. 

 

[msudaisy26]

From a risk/reward perspective, I think it makes the most sense for him to play.  Hell, he might get lucky and break his wrist like David Johnson, get his 15 million this year, then get paid next offseason.

So now he wants to get hurt to make more money. HFS