RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (6 Viewers)

[tdmills]

It is not nitpicking when a guy is not even worthy of being discussed at the top players at their position. That is a wrong statement that deserves clarification for anyone who would make it because Bell has not nor is he considered in that light by anyone but you.

You have not backed up the statement either. Instead resting on some imaginary laurels. WTG.

Huh? I just proved how he wasn't far from Gio, who you chose to crown instead, in the passing game. You are debating against pretty simple math in the matter, not me. He also outproduced Gio's raw totals while playing less games. Pardon me for thinking a player with those credentials has equal-greater upside as the other for 2014. Your statement needs clarification if aything.

Let's not get too excited about performance in the passing game. Those numbers can vary quite drastically from year to year. I've seen guys with fairly heavy workloads in the passing game (read: good sample size) drop from the 9's to 6's in ypr and vice versa. It's also worth noting that as nice as Bell's season appears on paper, Steve Slaton's rookie year stomps Bell's rookie year and where is Slaton now? Bonus: a fun fact from Slaton's second year... 3.3 ypc and 9.5 ypr. Bell's rookie year... 3.5 ypc and 8.9 ypr.

I'm not basing my evaluation of Bell's hands solely on his rookie season. He has been a great pass catcher since college. The Stealers even line him up outside a few times a game. There are few in the league his size that are capable of that.I'll put up the sim scores for Bell when I have a chance. He's not much like Steve Slaton.

Steve Slaton 5'9" 199 lbs

Le'Veon Bell 6'1" 244 lbs

I think everyone forgets how bad Pittsburgh's line was last year, we were signing guys off the street (Fernando Velasco, Guy Whimper, Cody Wallace, etc...) and starting them shortly thereafter. With Pouncey back from injury and Mike Munchak at the helm (with a possible rookie sprinkled in) I think we see much bigger things from Bell than last year.

I think a more apt comparison would be a poor man's Matt Forte

Their difference in stature was not lost on me. I was just pointing out how meaningless one year's worth of good YPR is. And how one good season can go down the crapper pretty quickly. Bell could be forgotten as easily as Slaton was if Blount comes into Pit and starts running like he did as a rookie or like he did down the stretch last year. FWIW, I agree that Pit's line was at least somewhat to blame, but I'm also a believer in Blount's natural ability as a runner. He did extremely well as a raw, essentially uncoached runner (the Raheem Morris regime made no attempts to coach him up) his rookie year. And if you consider the unmitigated disaster that Tampa was during his second year, his 4.2 ypc is actually pretty impressive.

I won't be shocked to see Bell put up much better stats as a runner next year if the line improves, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see Blount average 1 ypc more than Bell. At this point, I don't feel like I could draft Bell with confidence at his likely ADP. I'm pretty sure there will be other guys with similar upside with fewer question marks.

Blount did get to run behind very good to good run blocking lines - especially last season - and I'm not sure he'd be very successful behind a poor run blocking line given his running style.

Blount had the best ypc in new england last year. Of the rb with significant carries(100 or more) ridley 4.3, blount 5.0. It wasn't just the line.Eta: bell had 200 more carries, but averaged less ypc than Dwyer(4.0) and Felix jones (3.7)

 

[Bojang0301]

So everyone knew Pitt was going to sign a backup RB, then when they do you all freak out and drop Bell's value. Overreact much?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It is not nitpicking when a guy is not even worthy of being discussed at the top players at their position. That is a wrong statement that deserves clarification for anyone who would make it because Bell has not nor is he considered in that light by anyone but you.

You have not backed up the statement either. Instead resting on some imaginary laurels. WTG.

Huh? I just proved how he wasn't far from Gio, who you chose to crown instead, in the passing game. You are debating against pretty simple math in the matter, not me. He also outproduced Gio's raw totals while playing less games. Pardon me for thinking a player with those credentials has equal-greater upside as the other for 2014. Your statement needs clarification if aything.

Let's not get too excited about performance in the passing game. Those numbers can vary quite drastically from year to year. I've seen guys with fairly heavy workloads in the passing game (read: good sample size) drop from the 9's to 6's in ypr and vice versa. It's also worth noting that as nice as Bell's season appears on paper, Steve Slaton's rookie year stomps Bell's rookie year and where is Slaton now? Bonus: a fun fact from Slaton's second year... 3.3 ypc and 9.5 ypr. Bell's rookie year... 3.5 ypc and 8.9 ypr.

I'm not basing my evaluation of Bell's hands solely on his rookie season. He has been a great pass catcher since college. The Stealers even line him up outside a few times a game. There are few in the league his size that are capable of that.I'll put up the sim scores for Bell when I have a chance. He's not much like Steve Slaton.

Steve Slaton 5'9" 199 lbs

Le'Veon Bell 6'1" 244 lbs

I think everyone forgets how bad Pittsburgh's line was last year, we were signing guys off the street (Fernando Velasco, Guy Whimper, Cody Wallace, etc...) and starting them shortly thereafter. With Pouncey back from injury and Mike Munchak at the helm (with a possible rookie sprinkled in) I think we see much bigger things from Bell than last year.

I think a more apt comparison would be a poor man's Matt Forte

Their difference in stature was not lost on me. I was just pointing out how meaningless one year's worth of good YPR is. And how one good season can go down the crapper pretty quickly. Bell could be forgotten as easily as Slaton was if Blount comes into Pit and starts running like he did as a rookie or like he did down the stretch last year. FWIW, I agree that Pit's line was at least somewhat to blame, but I'm also a believer in Blount's natural ability as a runner. He did extremely well as a raw, essentially uncoached runner (the Raheem Morris regime made no attempts to coach him up) his rookie year. And if you consider the unmitigated disaster that Tampa was during his second year, his 4.2 ypc is actually pretty impressive.

I won't be shocked to see Bell put up much better stats as a runner next year if the line improves, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see Blount average 1 ypc more than Bell. At this point, I don't feel like I could draft Bell with confidence at his likely ADP. I'm pretty sure there will be other guys with similar upside with fewer question marks.

Blount did get to run behind very good to good run blocking lines - especially last season - and I'm not sure he'd be very successful behind a poor run blocking line given his running style.

Blount had the best ypc in new england last year. Of the rb with significant carries(100 or more) ridley 4.3, blount 5.0. It wasn't just the line.Eta: bell had 200 more carries, but averaged less ypc than Dwyer(4.0) and Felix jones (3.7)

No it wasn't - but Blount also had the benefit of seeing his carries late in the season when defenses were more worn down. We've seen plenty of "fresh leg" late season success in the RB landscape.

I don't say that to disparage Blount. He's a fine RB. It's more of a statement that just looking at ypc doesn't always tell the full story.

 

[tdmills]

It is not nitpicking when a guy is not even worthy of being discussed at the top players at their position. That is a wrong statement that deserves clarification for anyone who would make it because Bell has not nor is he considered in that light by anyone but you.

You have not backed up the statement either. Instead resting on some imaginary laurels. WTG.

Huh? I just proved how he wasn't far from Gio, who you chose to crown instead, in the passing game. You are debating against pretty simple math in the matter, not me. He also outproduced Gio's raw totals while playing less games. Pardon me for thinking a player with those credentials has equal-greater upside as the other for 2014. Your statement needs clarification if aything.

Let's not get too excited about performance in the passing game. Those numbers can vary quite drastically from year to year. I've seen guys with fairly heavy workloads in the passing game (read: good sample size) drop from the 9's to 6's in ypr and vice versa. It's also worth noting that as nice as Bell's season appears on paper, Steve Slaton's rookie year stomps Bell's rookie year and where is Slaton now? Bonus: a fun fact from Slaton's second year... 3.3 ypc and 9.5 ypr. Bell's rookie year... 3.5 ypc and 8.9 ypr.

I'm not basing my evaluation of Bell's hands solely on his rookie season. He has been a great pass catcher since college. The Stealers even line him up outside a few times a game. There are few in the league his size that are capable of that.I'll put up the sim scores for Bell when I have a chance. He's not much like Steve Slaton.

Steve Slaton 5'9" 199 lbs

Le'Veon Bell 6'1" 244 lbs

I think everyone forgets how bad Pittsburgh's line was last year, we were signing guys off the street (Fernando Velasco, Guy Whimper, Cody Wallace, etc...) and starting them shortly thereafter. With Pouncey back from injury and Mike Munchak at the helm (with a possible rookie sprinkled in) I think we see much bigger things from Bell than last year.

I think a more apt comparison would be a poor man's Matt Forte

Their difference in stature was not lost on me. I was just pointing out how meaningless one year's worth of good YPR is. And how one good season can go down the crapper pretty quickly. Bell could be forgotten as easily as Slaton was if Blount comes into Pit and starts running like he did as a rookie or like he did down the stretch last year. FWIW, I agree that Pit's line was at least somewhat to blame, but I'm also a believer in Blount's natural ability as a runner. He did extremely well as a raw, essentially uncoached runner (the Raheem Morris regime made no attempts to coach him up) his rookie year. And if you consider the unmitigated disaster that Tampa was during his second year, his 4.2 ypc is actually pretty impressive.

I won't be shocked to see Bell put up much better stats as a runner next year if the line improves, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see Blount average 1 ypc more than Bell. At this point, I don't feel like I could draft Bell with confidence at his likely ADP. I'm pretty sure there will be other guys with similar upside with fewer question marks.

Blount did get to run behind very good to good run blocking lines - especially last season - and I'm not sure he'd be very successful behind a poor run blocking line given his running style.

Blount had the best ypc in new england last year. Of the rb with significant carries(100 or more) ridley 4.3, blount 5.0. It wasn't just the line.Eta: bell had 200 more carries, but averaged less ypc than Dwyer(4.0) and Felix jones (3.7)

No it wasn't - but Blount also had the benefit of seeing his carries late in the season when defenses were more worn down. We've seen plenty of "fresh leg" late season success in the RB landscape.

I don't say that to disparage Blount. He's a fine RB. It's more of a statement that just looking at ypc doesn't always tell the full story.

That's true as well. I think blount is more of a concern then bell owners want to let on, but bell should have the job if he plays well.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk is visiting the Steelers on Tuesday.
Beat writer Gerry Dulac says Seastrunk is high on the team's list at running back, which is not surprising since they lack a ball carrier with his speed from the backfield. Le'Veon Bell is a good receiver for his size, and the Steelers just signed a battering ram in LeGarrette Blount, but Seastrunk would add speed out in space.

Source: Gerry Dulac on Twitter

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That's true as well. I think blount is more of a concern then bell owners want to let on, but bell should have the job if he plays well.

That's kind of where I stand as well. I own Bell in one league, and I can't say that I love that they signed Blount (instead of sticking with a bum like Felix Jones) - but if Bell isn't good enough to hold off a hard runner, but one dimensional back, like Blount than it was only a matter of time before he'd get replaced anyway.

 

[TheFanatic]

I just reread the first few pages of this thread. Hunchback saying that this draft is weak and he'd rather have picks in future drafts. Sure hope he doesn't need a RB. And TDMills saying Bell would be a bust based on what Edgerrin James did in Arizona and what second rounders did on other teams. And my favorite was when he said that Lacy and Gio had more talent and that if Bell was more talented he wouldn't have been a second rounder!?!!>

Then the guy goes off for 1200 total yards and 8 TD's in 13 games. And it turns out this draft had some nice gems...

having watched Bell in all of his game at Michigan State, I think Pitt was just about the best fit for him. He is not going to run in any from 30 yards or more, hell he got caught from behind more times I can remeber, even when the DB's were 10 yards behind him. But he was great at the goaline and a tough runner.

It is a long shot but I think his ceiling is Edge James, I think his floor is a poor man's Forte but better around the goal line 1200 total yards, 6 to 8 total touchdowns. Assuming he wins the starting job.

His floor is 1200 total yards? wow

Bell could be a total flop, average 3.6 YPC, making the position a RBBC. That's his floor.

Everyone should be honest about Bell. I liked Bell, but had him rated as my 12th rookie going into the draft. Nobody else was super high on the kid. Now he lands with Pittsburgh in the 2nd round and he's a Edgerrin James/Matt Forte.

On tape, Bell is mostly a plodder. Sometimes he flashes being athletic, but he's not very fast and he's not entering a great situation.

So you put yourself above NFL teams as a telent evaluator? Do you also have Da'Rick over Robert Woods?

NFL teams don't play FF football, so it's apples to oranges. If you think Bell was being valued the same pre/post NFL draft than you're ignorant.

FFB is based on performance in the NFL, so knowing where the NFL Teams value guys is sort of important. It's not an apples to oranges. It's that we wish we were playing with those oranges rather than our apples, because their oranges are the real deal, and ours are pretend based on what the oranges do.

And I value Bell higher post draft as I should. Because of the competition he is up against. If you think opportunity is not a HUGE determining factor in FFB, then I'm guessing you missed the boat on those fine PPR seasons Joseph (Mediocre) Addai had as a RB in Indy.

And where YOU value a guy before the draft is about as importan to the rankings as what my friend's cat ranks NFL prospects. Guys like Mel Kyper study this stuff day and night yet can't predict where players will go or if they will be any good.

But thanks for sharing your ranking of the guy pre-draft. I feel so much better now about the kid knowing where you had the guy pegged in March before he ever suited up for a rep in a mini camp. Can you give me your Super Bowl winner for 2017? I want to bet my house. TIA

You were a tool then and you are a tool now.

At least I know something about football. You obviously need a new hobby.

 

[Faust]

Steelers not going old school with Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount

By Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com

When the Steelers signed running back LeGarrette Blount, many took it as a sign Pittsburgh was going back to its roots. The Steelers were going to pound opponents with Le'Veon Bell (6-1, 244) and Blount (6-0, 250), and finally show true run/pass balance.

The top beat reporter covering the team, Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, doesn't see it that way. Asked if the team would migrate toward the run now that Blount's in the fold, Bouchette replied:

"Not necessarily. I do not think they want to run more often (italics added). They want to run more effectively and that was Art Rooney's wish, quality not quantity. However, they ran only 38.5 percent of the time last season. I believe some of that can be attributed to them falling behind and having to throw more often in the second half. Some also had to do with the lack of quality backs, until Le'Veon Bell became healthy and effective. In 2012, they ran 40.3 percent of the time."

Pittsburgh ranked 26th in run percentage last season, 21st the year before. The team ranked 25th with 394 rush attempts last year, 20th with 412 carries in 2012. This team is still built around Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and the passing game, and that won't change with Blount's arrival. Although they lost Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery in free agency, the Steelers plan to draft a tall wideout early and are bullish on second-year pro Markus Wheaton.

Assuming Bell stays healthy, we can expect Pittsburgh to creep back up over the 40/60 run/pass ratio. But that's all. Figure around 420 team rushing attempts.

Dave Richard believes Blount could get 150 touches. He was highly effective getting 155 touches (153 carries, 2 receptions) with New England last year. Richard dropped Bell a few spots to No. 11 in his RB rankings, behind Montee Ball, Alfred Morris, Giovani Bernard and DeMarco Murray.

Jamey Eisenberg has little faith in Blount and he's still very high on Bell, ranking him the No. 7 RB. Blount's signing caused Eisenberg to drop Bell one spot, behind Ball.

Nathan Zegura splits the difference and ranks Bell ninth.

The Steelers had no legitimate back behind Bell last year. Jonathan Dwyer and Felix Jones ate up 97 carries without scoring. Blount, on the other hand, has a nose for the end zone. He ran for seven touchdowns as a part-time player for the Patriots, adding four more scores in the playoff win over Indy. He ran for 11 touchdowns in his first two pro seasons in Tampa.

The Post-Gazette said Blount "instantly provides the Steelers with a viable option in the red zone, where the offense struggled at times last season."

The possibility of Blount vulturing some scores is another reason to keep expectations in check for Bell.

 

[buddhacwru]

Steelers not going old school with Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount

By Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com

When the Steelers signed running back LeGarrette Blount, many took it as a sign Pittsburgh was going back to its roots. The Steelers were going to pound opponents with Le'Veon Bell (6-1, 244) and Blount (6-0, 250), and finally show true run/pass balance.

The top beat reporter covering the team, Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, doesn't see it that way. Asked if the team would migrate toward the run now that Blount's in the fold, Bouchette replied:

"Not necessarily. I do not think they want to run more often (italics added). They want to run more effectively and that was Art Rooney's wish, quality not quantity. However, they ran only 38.5 percent of the time last season. I believe some of that can be attributed to them falling behind and having to throw more often in the second half. Some also had to do with the lack of quality backs, until Le'Veon Bell became healthy and effective. In 2012, they ran 40.3 percent of the time."

Pittsburgh ranked 26th in run percentage last season, 21st the year before. The team ranked 25th with 394 rush attempts last year, 20th with 412 carries in 2012. This team is still built around Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and the passing game, and that won't change with Blount's arrival. Although they lost Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery in free agency, the Steelers plan to draft a tall wideout early and are bullish on second-year pro Markus Wheaton.

Assuming Bell stays healthy, we can expect Pittsburgh to creep back up over the 40/60 run/pass ratio. But that's all. Figure around 420 team rushing attempts.

Dave Richard believes Blount could get 150 touches. He was highly effective getting 155 touches (153 carries, 2 receptions) with New England last year. Richard dropped Bell a few spots to No. 11 in his RB rankings, behind Montee Ball, Alfred Morris, Giovani Bernard and DeMarco Murray.

Jamey Eisenberg has little faith in Blount and he's still very high on Bell, ranking him the No. 7 RB. Blount's signing caused Eisenberg to drop Bell one spot, behind Ball.

Nathan Zegura splits the difference and ranks Bell ninth.

The Steelers had no legitimate back behind Bell last year. Jonathan Dwyer and Felix Jones ate up 97 carries without scoring. Blount, on the other hand, has a nose for the end zone. He ran for seven touchdowns as a part-time player for the Patriots, adding four more scores in the playoff win over Indy. He ran for 11 touchdowns in his first two pro seasons in Tampa.

The Post-Gazette said Blount "instantly provides the Steelers with a viable option in the red zone, where the offense struggled at times last season."

The possibility of Blount vulturing some scores is another reason to keep expectations in check for Bell.

I trust Ed Bouchette. He is very knowledgeable when it comes to the Steelers. As for the CBS fantasy guys, their opinions are worthless. I listen to their podcast for entertainment but even then I don't listen to their opinions on much of anything. They routinely are not knowledgeable about teams, players. They don't talk about Xs and Os. They lean more towards entertainment. They haven't even done an NFL college draft show yet whereas most fantasy "experts" are focusing on that.

 

[False Start]

It's amazing the fear Blount is putting into some people. If an owner is trying to sell, BUY. I'm trying in one league but no luck. Blount was signed to back up money and is best suited as a back up. Mike Tomlin is not Bill.

 

[Faust]

@MikeClayNFL

2 guys I'm souring on lately - Zac Stacy and Le'Veon Bell...

@MikeClayNFL

Both did well in 2013, but thanks mostly to volume. Neither were very good on a per-play basis. Stacy now has to deal with Tre Mason...

@MikeClayNFL

...while Bell has underrated LeGarrette Blount (stud in '13) and speedy COP rook Dri Archer in the mix

@MikeClayNFL

So that's why I went Graham/Dez over one of those 2 guys in Athlon. Would prefer both as a RB2, not a 1.

 

[Riffraff]

Every thread could be pretty long if we start posting tweets from random internet guys about how they did their draft. Definitely prefer articles or at least tweets of news or coaches talking.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Agree with the above concerns. Not likely that Bell loses his job or anything, but it's going to be hard for a volume RB to produce RB1 numbers with Blount siphoning carries / TDs and Archer siphoning catches. A 10% reduction in workload would have dropped him out of the top 12 in PPG last year.

 

[jurb26]

What are people expecting out of Archer? Seems like a gadget player on offense who's real value will be in the return game. Not sure I see him as a great threat. I'd expect little out of the backfield action from him and more lined up in the slot or moved around type stuff.

 

[Koya]

How much of bells per play ( lack of ) production was his own doing vs the team and the line?

And same with Stacy.

From the eye test both looked better than solid.

You'd prefer them as RB2? I mean what , a 6 team league?

 

[Riffraff]

What are people expecting out of Archer? Seems like a gadget player on offense who's real value will be in the return game. Not sure I see him as a great threat. I'd expect little out of the backfield action from him and more lined up in the slot or moved around type stuff.

Some scatback reps (Felix Jones/Stephens-Howling role) and a RB that plays special teams. Blount plays the Dwyer/Redman role.

 

[buddhacwru]

I will wait for reports out of mini-camp and and training camp schedule. His trade value is likely lowered by the draft and offseason but I have faith in Bell's talent.

More importantly, did the Steelers upgrade their O-Line in free agency or in the draft? I don't follow the team.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Bell was RB9 in PPG last year (PPR), and the team added more capable backups / role players for 2014. I'm OK letting someone else grab him as their anchor RB1.

 

[Riffraff]

More importantly, did the Steelers upgrade their O-Line in free agency or in the draft? I don't follow the team.

1 offensive lineman taken as a comp pick in the 5th round. So, not really any improvement via the draft.

 

[Faust]

Every thread could be pretty long if we start posting complaining about tweets from random internet guys the Pro Football Focus Fantasy Director about how they did their draft stimulating relevant discussion on two volume running backs from last year. Definitely prefer articles or at least tweets of news or coaches talking.

Fixed.

 

[Cookiemonster]

More importantly, did the Steelers upgrade their O-Line in free agency or in the draft? I don't follow the team.

1 offensive lineman taken as a comp pick in the 5th round. So, not really any improvement via the draft.

New O-line coach and probably best since Russ Grimm, maybe better.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Also get Pouncey back.

That said, I don't know that Munchak won't be the bigger difference, if there is one, between '13 and '14 for their OL. Pouncey's sort of overrated in my mind.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think the concerns with Bell are overblown.

For starters, his per touch efficiency was much better at the end of the year. He started slowly coming off an injury as a rookie 1st time starter, but he ran very well in each of the last 5 games with the exception of one against one of the league's best run defenses.

He also passes the eye test, and brings something to the game (great receiving ability) that his backup doesn't outside of just his running ability.

I don't think Archer brings much worry. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets fewer than 20 touches this year on offense. He reminds me of the role Chris Rainey had. Special teams and a few gadget plays.

I mean, yeah, I agree with the last tweet that I'd take Graham/Dez over him, but I don't think that's really going out on a limb. I'd take those guys over any RB that's not one of the sure-fire elite studs like McCoy.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Agree with the above concerns. Not likely that Bell loses his job or anything, but it's going to be hard for a volume RB to produce RB1 numbers with Blount siphoning carries / TDs and Archer siphoning catches. A 10% reduction in workload would have dropped him out of the top 12 in PPG last year.

Blount may be a concern, but I'd expect Archer to be used more as a slot WR - gadget guy. I doubt he takes receptions away from Bell other than in the sense that any ball thrown to any receiver other than Bell takes receptions away from him.

 

[Bayhawks]

Agree with the above concerns. Not likely that Bell loses his job or anything, but it's going to be hard for a volume RB to produce RB1 numbers with Blount siphoning carries / TDs and Archer siphoning catches. A 10% reduction in workload would have dropped him out of the top 12 in PPG last year.

Blount may be a concern, but I'd expect Archer to be used more as a slot WR - gadget guy. I doubt he takes receptions away from Bell other than in the sense that any ball thrown to any receiver other than Bell takes receptions away from him.

Bell improved in virtually every statistical category in the second half of the season last year: YPC, carries/game, GL running, SY running, YPR, catch rate. He was a rookie who missed virtually the entire off-season, then the first part of the season; when he got back, the O-line was decimated. After he got comfortable and his O-line started to improve, ALL of his numbers improved.

I don't see Bell getting less than 300 touches (I actually expect more than that).

250 rushes, 50 catches, 1400 YFS, 8 TDs would be what I expect as his floor. That would have made him RB12 last year (non-PPR). in 12 team leagues, he's a solid RB1.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

I think the upside view on Bell is that he becomes more than just a volume guy with a low ypc. If Pittsburgh can improve overall, and I think there's reason for optimism on that front, and that, along with more experience, helps Bell get his ypc to something like 4.2, which isn't asking a ton of a quality NFL back, we'd be looking at 1,500 combined yards and 12 TDs. That would be fantastic for fantasy. When you weigh that against his floor, which isn't much lower than the 1,259 and 8 TDs that he produced last year when you consider he missed the first three games with an injury, I think he's a great fantasy player to target.

 

[lod01]

What are people expecting out of Archer? Seems like a gadget player on offense who's real value will be in the return game. Not sure I see him as a great threat. I'd expect little out of the backfield action from him and more lined up in the slot or moved around type stuff.

Apparently people forget how well Bell can catch. Archer is a soaking wet 174.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I think the Steelers draft was more of a threat to Antonio Brown's targets than Bell's carries.

 

[Phenix]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think the Steelers draft was more of a threat to Antonio Brown's targets than Bell's carries.

Agreed. The threat to Bell's carries came in via free agency, not the draft.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

 

[Bayhawks]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

 

[tdmills]

What are people expecting out of Archer? Seems like a gadget player on offense who's real value will be in the return game. Not sure I see him as a great threat. I'd expect little out of the backfield action from him and more lined up in the slot or moved around type stuff.

Apparently people forget how well Bell can catch. Archer is a soaking wet 174.

Catching the ball isn't the issue, it's what can they do after they catch it. Archer is literally .3 faster in the 40, why can't he become a Darren Sproles type of threat out of the backfield? I think Bell owners are in denial, signing Blount and drafting Archer means more weapons and less touches on offense. For a player that needs a lot of touches to be productive = not an increase in value

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

I agree that he hasn't been good in short yardage. I was speaking to his overall ability -- and he's massively under rated. The guy is a good runner.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

I agree that he hasn't been good in short yardage. I was speaking to his overall ability -- and he's massively under rated. The guy is a good runner.

Blount probably is a bit under-rated but we've only really seen him run behind some pretty good run blocking lines so far.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What are people expecting out of Archer? Seems like a gadget player on offense who's real value will be in the return game. Not sure I see him as a great threat. I'd expect little out of the backfield action from him and more lined up in the slot or moved around type stuff.

Apparently people forget how well Bell can catch. Archer is a soaking wet 174.

Catching the ball isn't the issue, it's what can they do after they catch it. Archer is literally .3 faster in the 40, why can't he become a Darren Sproles type of threat out of the backfield? I think Bell owners are in denial, signing Blount and drafting Archer means more weapons and less touches on offense. For a player that needs a lot of touches to be productive = not an increase in value

Is it possible that the youngest back in the NFL last season, who missed most of camp and the first three NFL games - and showed improvement as the season went on - gets a little better in his second season and improves his per touch metrics?

Also, once again the drafting of Archer doesn't really have much to do with Bell at all - no one expects Bell to get every touch or every target - the team also lost Emannuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery, their second and third WRs last season so there's additional targets available. I don't think Archer is going to be much more than a Chris Rainey type player, and even if he becomes Sproles, his targets do not necessarily need to come at Bell's expense, since their roles will be very different. Pierre Thomas still saw plenty of targets in NO, even though Sproles was there.

 

[Bayhawks]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

I agree that he hasn't been good in short yardage. I was speaking to his overall ability -- and he's massively under rated. The guy is a good runner.

The game film and stats say otherwise.

He is a big RB who doesn't run big.

IF he gets to the defensive secondary, he is a load to bring down, but he doesn't run like a power back (which was your contention). Power backs are generally successful in SY situations (hence the term, "power" back), Blount isn't.

His vision isn't as good as Bell's, he isn't as good a SY runner as Bell is, he isn't as good of a receiver as Bell is. What he is is, is a substantial improvement over their back-up RBs from last year.

 

[Bayhawks]

What are people expecting out of Archer? Seems like a gadget player on offense who's real value will be in the return game. Not sure I see him as a great threat. I'd expect little out of the backfield action from him and more lined up in the slot or moved around type stuff.

Apparently people forget how well Bell can catch. Archer is a soaking wet 174.

Catching the ball isn't the issue, it's what can they do after they catch it. Archer is literally .3 faster in the 40, why can't he become a Darren Sproles type of threat out of the backfield? I think Bell owners are in denial, signing Blount and drafting Archer means more weapons and less touches on offense. For a player that needs a lot of touches to be productive = not an increase in value

You note Archer's 40 time, but you don't mention the 2 RBs' body types.

Sproles is 5'6", 187 lbs.

Archer is 5'8", 173 lbs.

So, Archer is 2 inches taller, and 14 lbs lighter. Sproles is already a small RB, Archer is substantially smaller. Sproles isn't able to get regular carries or inside catches because he will get beat up; most of his touches are outside. This will be even more the case for Archer.

Then look at Sproles' production. He didn't come in as a rookie and put up "Darren Sproles" numbers. No, he put up scat-back numbers. He didn't get 100 offensive touches until his 3rd season, and didn't get more than 150 touches until he went to New Orleans, which you'll have to agree is a MUCH different offensive situation than the one in Pittsburgh.

Bottom line is that if Archer is the only back in the backfield, defenses are going to know it's a pass play. He's not a threat to run the ball, therefore his presence on the field limits what the D will have to defend. If Bell wasn't a good receiver, Pittsburgh might have to accept this fact. Since, however, Bell is a great receiving RB, they are able to keep him on the field, making D's defend both the run AND the pass.

Because of Archer's speed, they will take shots with him on offense, but if he gets 50 offensive touches this year, I'd be very surprised.

 

[cloppbeast]

Also, once again the drafting of Archer doesn't really have much to do with Bell at all - no one expects Bell to get every touch or every target - the team also lost Emannuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery, their second and third WRs last season so there's additional targets available. I don't think Archer is going to be much more than a Chris Rainey type player, and even if he becomes Sproles, his targets do not necessarily need to come at Bell's expense, since their roles will be very different. Pierre Thomas still saw plenty of targets in NO, even though Sproles was there.

Is it possible Archer was drafted to play receiver more than running back anyway? Or at least some sort of hybrid like Dexter McCluster. Todd Haley loves drafting those types but hasn't really anything with them yet. Archer is the first one who runs a 4.26.

As for Bell, his fantasy prospects have little to do with his teammates and everything to do with him. The team drafted him for a Bell-cow role, and I highly doubt they gave up on that after a moderately successful rookie season. Blount's addition has to do with lack of depth following Dwyer's departure. The Steelers tried to sign MJD; they couldn't sign him because he wants to play, and they won't give him the snaps.

Bottom line: if Blount earns significant carries, it means Bell hasn't played very well.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

I agree that he hasn't been good in short yardage. I was speaking to his overall ability -- and he's massively under rated. The guy is a good runner.

The game film and stats say otherwise.He is a big RB who doesn't run big.

IF he gets to the defensive secondary, he is a load to bring down, but he doesn't run like a power back (which was your contention). Power backs are generally successful in SY situations (hence the term, "power" back), Blount isn't.

His vision isn't as good as Bell's, he isn't as good a SY runner as Bell is, he isn't as good of a receiver as Bell is. What he is is, is a substantial improvement over their back-up RBs from last year.

Yeah, we're not going to agree here. Blount is a good player. He's at 4.7 YPC for his career, including two years at 5.0. He has a 1000 yard rushing season under his belt. I personally put more weight on the larger sample size provided by looking at his entire career portfolio vs. just pulling out a few short yardage carries. I agree that he danced too much early on in Tampa; I didn't see much of that at all last year. IMO Blount is solidly in the tier of guys on the starter / strong backup borderline -- he's clearly not a scrub that might / might not hold on to his roster spot like the guys behind Bell last year.

I'm also a Steelers' homer who has seen every touch of Bell's career. I know what he is. And what he isn't. Bell is certainly better than the picture painted by just looking at his YPC last year -- but he's certainly not in the elite tier of NFL RBs for whom added competition just doesn't matter. I do expect his efficiency to improve this year, but also think that his volume will take a hit with the new additions.

The bottom line is value -- and I definitely don't see it being in Bell's favor. There is a sizable contingent of folks who seem to be taking Bell's stats from last year, boosting his efficiency, and multiplying by 16 games = stud RB1. I don't see it as likely at all. He was pacing for over 350 touches last year; I don't think he come close to that total in 2014. 300 is about where I'd set the ceiling, which makes him more of a strong RB2. I'll happily let others draft him in the late 1st / early 2nd this fall.

 

[Phenomena]

I am shocked at the amount of people that think Dri Archer is going to affect Le'veon Bell in any way whatsoever. Even PFF knocked Bell down to RB15 recently. Bell is/was the bellcow. Archer is 180 soaking wet and will never be a regular ball carrier. He's more of a Dex McCluster than an actual running back. I doubt he carries the ball more than 30 times this season. Blount was signed to be the change of pace back.

Le'veon is still in the top 8 RBs for me and is a first-round pick this year, below Lacy, and above Gio/Spiller. The latter two have not actually shown they can be the bellcow. Le'veon did it in his rookie year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The Steelers tried to sign MJD; they couldn't sign him because he wants to play, and they won't give him the snaps.

Where exactly are you getting this from? MJD came in for a visit; we don't even know if Pittsburgh offered him a contract. And regardless, it was about money -- with the Steelers' cap situation they couldn't afford to give him the 3 / $7.5 million he was looking for and got from Oakland.

 

[FF Ninja]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

I agree that he hasn't been good in short yardage. I was speaking to his overall ability -- and he's massively under rated. The guy is a good runner.

The game film and stats say otherwise.

He is a big RB who doesn't run big.

IF he gets to the defensive secondary, he is a load to bring down, but he doesn't run like a power back (which was your contention). Power backs are generally successful in SY situations (hence the term, "power" back), Blount isn't.

His vision isn't as good as Bell's, he isn't as good a SY runner as Bell is, he isn't as good of a receiver as Bell is. What he is is, is a substantial improvement over their back-up RBs from last year.

I'll start this off with the admission that I am a fan of Blount, but he's dead to me in fantasy. I took him late in a lot of leagues last year, thinking Ridley was overrated and Blount still had talent and could win the job outright. But being behind Bell, I don't think he'll get an opportunity to be fantasy relevant without injury. So I don't own him in any leagues, merely a fan who is well versed in statistics.

This contention that he's a poor goal line/short yardage RB stems from reports out of Tampa that he was bad at the goal line. Turns out they never coached him on it (or receiving, per an interview), but more importantly the sample size was never enough to really say one way or another. Even to this day, after four seasons, data dominator told me he's only had 24 rushes on 3rd or 4th down with 3 yards or less to go. So whatever conclusion you've drawn on that sample size is statistically questionable. But last year, DD says he had 7 carries inside the 5 yard line and scored 5 TDs. He also had 7 carries on 3rd/4th down with 1-3 yard to go and he got 5 first downs. Bell converted 11 of 16, while converting 7 TDs on 19 carries inside the 5 yard line. Bell isn't standing out to me here and I wouldn't rule out that Blount was finally coached up in his 4th season after being under the inept Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano his first 3 years.

More importantly, I think you are confusing power running with short yardage. Sure, it's one aspect of a power runner, but I'm thinking CDL was referring to being a punishing between the tackles runner, which Blount most certainly is. He tends to plow over people which makes them take him low, which is when he pulls out the hurdle. He's a rare guy who can power through tackles with the possibility of taking it to the house.

As I said, I don't think he steals enough carries to be fantasy relevant, but I do believe he's potentially (likely) better than Bell in some facets. The coaches will notice this at some point. It's very possible that short yardage is not one of those facets, but even if he just steals carries between the 20's, that's still something people don't seem to be accounting for in their rankings for Bell.

I almost forgot, I don't know where you get this notion that his vision isn't as good as Bell's. I watched quite a bit of Bell and sometimes I'd come away impressed by his moves and other times I saw a guy blindly running into his blocker. I think he's got quick feet for a guy his size (much like Blount) but vision is not something I'd credit him for at all.

 

[Bayhawks]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

I agree that he hasn't been good in short yardage. I was speaking to his overall ability -- and he's massively under rated. The guy is a good runner.

The game film and stats say otherwise.He is a big RB who doesn't run big.

IF he gets to the defensive secondary, he is a load to bring down, but he doesn't run like a power back (which was your contention). Power backs are generally successful in SY situations (hence the term, "power" back), Blount isn't.

His vision isn't as good as Bell's, he isn't as good a SY runner as Bell is, he isn't as good of a receiver as Bell is. What he is is, is a substantial improvement over their back-up RBs from last year.

Yeah, we're not going to agree here. Blount is a good player. He's at 4.7 YPC for his career, including two years at 5.0. He has a 1000 yard rushing season under his belt. I personally put more weight on the larger sample size provided by looking at his entire career portfolio vs. just pulling out a few short yardage carries. I agree that he danced too much early on in Tampa; I didn't see much of that at all last year. IMO Blount is solidly in the tier of guys on the starter / strong backup borderline -- he's clearly not a scrub that might / might not hold on to his roster spot like the guys behind Bell last year.

I'm also a Steelers' homer who has seen every touch of Bell's career. I know what he is. And what he isn't. Bell is certainly better than the picture painted by just looking at his YPC last year -- but he's certainly not in the elite tier of NFL RBs for whom added competition just doesn't matter. I do expect his efficiency to improve this year, but also think that his volume will take a hit with the new additions.

The bottom line is value -- and I definitely don't see it being in Bell's favor. There is a sizable contingent of folks who seem to be taking Bell's stats from last year, boosting his efficiency, and multiplying by 16 games = stud RB1. I don't see it as likely at all. He was pacing for over 350 touches last year; I don't think he come close to that total in 2014. 300 is about where I'd set the ceiling, which makes him more of a strong RB2. I'll happily let others draft him in the late 1st / early 2nd this fall.

We likely aren't going to agree, but (in part) that is because you are changing your "argument."

I never said Blount isn't a good player, but your OP (that I responded to) said he was a good "power RB." Power RBs are RBs who are good in SY situations. That is the nature of that designation. You don't expect a "power RB" to make multiple defenders miss with jump-cuts, spin moves, and hurdles, you expect them to get the yards when there are 9, 10, 11 men in the box, and they have to run through those men. Blount, based on watching him, and his stats (from his ENTIRE career) is not a good power RB.

You say he is a borderline starter/solid back-up; I said he is a substantial improvement over their back-up RBs from last year. I don't think we are that far off with regard to that point, but if you insist on contending that Blount is a good (or even adequate) power RB, we will have to disagree.

I'm not a Pittsburgh homer, but I do live in the area, and I watched pretty much every play of Bell's pro career, as well. He improved substantially over the latter part of last season, which I attribute to getting more familiar with the NFL game, the offense, play-calling, etc. I expect him to improve again this year (a more stable/improved O-line would help, as well).

While the people who are "taking Bell's stats from last year, boosting his efficiency, and multiplying by 16 games = stud RB1;" are making a mistake, you saying "I don't see more than 300 touches" without actually looking at how those touches will add up is also a mistake.

I already posted some rough projections earlier; I'll put a little more thought (and reasoning) behind them here. Keep in mind these will be very early, and very conservative (for the purposes of this discussion)

I expect the Steelers to run about 950 offensive plays next year.

I also expect them to slightly bump their rush totals to 41% (390 rushes).

Bell got 79% of the carries once he hit the field last year; I'm going to drop that % to 65% (254 carries).

Bell averaged 3.1 YPC over his 1st 7 games, and 3.9 YPC over his last 6. I'm going to give him a SLIGHT increase (being conservative, for the sake of this discussion) to an even 4.0 YPC (254 X 4.0 = 1016 yards).

Bell received 66 targets in 13 games (5 targets/game) last year, and caught 68% of those targets. That accounted for 72% of the RB targets during those 13 games.

Haley gives his RBs between 100-115 targets (with the exception of 2011 when Charles was hurt, and he was fired during the season), so I'm going to project 110 targets for Pitt RBs in 2014.

Blount isn't much of a receiving threat, so I'm comfortable giving Bell 75 targets for 2014 (4.7/game). That's a drop in his RB target rate (68%).

I'll also drop his catch rate to 62% (47 catches).

I'll also drop his YPR from 8.9 YPR to 8.0 (376 rec yards).

Since Bell is a more effective SY back than Blount, and should get a score or 2 via the air (although he didn't do so in 2013), I'll project him for 9 TDs. This is essentially the same amount of rushing TDs as he got last year (in comparable carries), plus projecting one through the air.

So, almost 1400 YFS (1392), and 9 TDs or 196 FF points (non-PPR). That would have made him RB10 last year.

I projected him for a very slight increase over his YPC at the end of last year, I projected him for a smaller % of the carries, a smaller number of targets/game, a lower YPR, a lower target rate, a lower catch rate, and a slightly lower TD/carry rate (although I did give him a receiving TD). I left 35% of the carries for the other RBs (110-125 for Blount, 12-27 for Archer/Johnson/"other" RBs), and 32% of the RB targets for other RBs.

So without merely extrapolating his numbers to a full 16 game schedule, or projecting massive improvements, or failing to account for the other RBs, I have a conservative projection for Bell of RB10. That's more than a strong RB2. Furthermore, I expect him to do better than this in several areas; I deliberately lowered my projections to demonstrate that even with Blount and Archer, Bell should still be considered a solid FF RB1 for 2014.

 

[Bayhawks]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

I agree that he hasn't been good in short yardage. I was speaking to his overall ability -- and he's massively under rated. The guy is a good runner.

The game film and stats say otherwise.

He is a big RB who doesn't run big.

IF he gets to the defensive secondary, he is a load to bring down, but he doesn't run like a power back (which was your contention). Power backs are generally successful in SY situations (hence the term, "power" back), Blount isn't.

His vision isn't as good as Bell's, he isn't as good a SY runner as Bell is, he isn't as good of a receiver as Bell is. What he is is, is a substantial improvement over their back-up RBs from last year.

I'll start this off with the admission that I am a fan of Blount, but he's dead to me in fantasy. I took him late in a lot of leagues last year, thinking Ridley was overrated and Blount still had talent and could win the job outright. But being behind Bell, I don't think he'll get an opportunity to be fantasy relevant without injury. So I don't own him in any leagues, merely a fan who is well versed in statistics.

This contention that he's a poor goal line/short yardage RB stems from reports out of Tampa that he was bad at the goal line. Turns out they never coached him on it (or receiving, per an interview), but more importantly the sample size was never enough to really say one way or another. Even to this day, after four seasons, data dominator told me he's only had 24 rushes on 3rd or 4th down with 3 yards or less to go. So whatever conclusion you've drawn on that sample size is statistically questionable. But last year, DD says he had 7 carries inside the 5 yard line and scored 5 TDs. He also had 7 carries on 3rd/4th down with 1-3 yard to go and he got 5 first downs. Bell converted 11 of 16, while converting 7 TDs on 19 carries inside the 5 yard line. Bell isn't standing out to me here and I wouldn't rule out that Blount was finally coached up in his 4th season after being under the inept Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano his first 3 years.

More importantly, I think you are confusing power running with short yardage. Sure, it's one aspect of a power runner, but I'm thinking CDL was referring to being a punishing between the tackles runner, which Blount most certainly is. He tends to plow over people which makes them take him low, which is when he pulls out the hurdle. He's a rare guy who can power through tackles with the possibility of taking it to the house.

As I said, I don't think he steals enough carries to be fantasy relevant, but I do believe he's potentially (likely) better than Bell in some facets. The coaches will notice this at some point. It's very possible that short yardage is not one of those facets, but even if he just steals carries between the 20's, that's still something people don't seem to be accounting for in their rankings for Bell.

I almost forgot, I don't know where you get this notion that his vision isn't as good as Bell's. I watched quite a bit of Bell and sometimes I'd come away impressed by his moves and other times I saw a guy blindly running into his blocker. I think he's got quick feet for a guy his size (much like Blount) but vision is not something I'd credit him for at all.

I know where you stand on Blount, and I respect your FF analyses. However, I didn't restrict my data to just 3/4 down. My numbers are also from DD, but they include all 4 downs (with less than 3 yards to go), with regards to SY. The GL data I used (also from DD) includes any carries from in the 5. As I posted earlier, in his 4 year career, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations, 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and 31st in TD rate in GL situations. Those are from his entire 4 year career, you can't get any larger sample size than that.

With regards to his success rate last year, if drawing conclusions from a 24 carry sample is "statistically questionable," the same can be said with regards to drawing conclusions from a 5 carry sample (especially when it flies in the face of a larger sample size).

As far as Blount running over people, I've watched him most of his career. I owned him in several FF leagues during his 1st 2 years in TB, and I followed him last year as I owned Vereen & was vested in the NE RB situation. If you watch the film, most of the people he runs over are after he gets up a head of steam & they are often DBs. He is far less successful against DL and LBs.

Finally, with regard to his vision, I can't show any stats, data, etc, but in watching Blount, he doesn't seem to see openings, lanes, cut-backs, etc. You can draw your own conclusions, and we'll have to agree to disagree, because I know what I perceive in this area.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As a Bell owner am I not worried at all. Blount wasnt anything special last year, he was just better than Ridley, doesnt mean he is some threat to Bell. Archer is too small to be a threat to anyone.

You're wildly under-rating Blount. He's a good, if one dimensional, power RB. He's probably not a threat to steal Bell's job outright, I agree. But he doesn't have to be to seriously dent Bell's value. Again, even a 10% reduction in volume would have been enough (PPG) to bounce Bell out of RB1 territory last year. Blount is waaaaaay better than Jonathan Dwyer by any measure.

Actually, you're over-rating him. Blount is a below average power RB. In his 4 years in the league, he ranks 41st amongst RBs in YPC in short-yardage situations (3 or less yards to go). He ranks 42nd in 1st down conversion in short-yardage situations, and he ranks 31st in TD rate in GL situations. He runs too upright, he dances too much, and he doesn't hit the hole hard in those types of situations. He has good speed for a bigger RB, but that doesn't help in short-yardage situations. He can truck DBs, but again, that's not very important in SY/GL situations. He could/should be a good short-yardage RB, because of his size & build, but he isn't.

I agree that he hasn't been good in short yardage. I was speaking to his overall ability -- and he's massively under rated. The guy is a good runner.

The game film and stats say otherwise.He is a big RB who doesn't run big.

IF he gets to the defensive secondary, he is a load to bring down, but he doesn't run like a power back (which was your contention). Power backs are generally successful in SY situations (hence the term, "power" back), Blount isn't.

His vision isn't as good as Bell's, he isn't as good a SY runner as Bell is, he isn't as good of a receiver as Bell is. What he is is, is a substantial improvement over their back-up RBs from last year.

Yeah, we're not going to agree here. Blount is a good player. He's at 4.7 YPC for his career, including two years at 5.0. He has a 1000 yard rushing season under his belt. I personally put more weight on the larger sample size provided by looking at his entire career portfolio vs. just pulling out a few short yardage carries. I agree that he danced too much early on in Tampa; I didn't see much of that at all last year. IMO Blount is solidly in the tier of guys on the starter / strong backup borderline -- he's clearly not a scrub that might / might not hold on to his roster spot like the guys behind Bell last year.I'm also a Steelers' homer who has seen every touch of Bell's career. I know what he is. And what he isn't. Bell is certainly better than the picture painted by just looking at his YPC last year -- but he's certainly not in the elite tier of NFL RBs for whom added competition just doesn't matter. I do expect his efficiency to improve this year, but also think that his volume will take a hit with the new additions.

The bottom line is value -- and I definitely don't see it being in Bell's favor. There is a sizable contingent of folks who seem to be taking Bell's stats from last year, boosting his efficiency, and multiplying by 16 games = stud RB1. I don't see it as likely at all. He was pacing for over 350 touches last year; I don't think he come close to that total in 2014. 300 is about where I'd set the ceiling, which makes him more of a strong RB2. I'll happily let others draft him in the late 1st / early 2nd this fall.

We likely aren't going to agree, but (in part) that is because you are changing your "argument." I never said Blount isn't a good player, but your OP (that I responded to) said he was a good "power RB." Power RBs are RBs who are good in SY situations. That is the nature of that designation. You don't expect a "power RB" to make multiple defenders miss with jump-cuts, spin moves, and hurdles, you expect them to get the yards when there are 9, 10, 11 men in the box, and they have to run through those men. Blount, based on watching him, and his stats (from his ENTIRE career) is not a good power RB.

You say he is a borderline starter/solid back-up; I said he is a substantial improvement over their back-up RBs from last year. I don't think we are that far off with regard to that point, but if you insist on contending that Blount is a good (or even adequate) power RB, we will have to disagree.

I'm not a Pittsburgh homer, but I do live in the area, and I watched pretty much every play of Bell's pro career, as well. He improved substantially over the latter part of last season, which I attribute to getting more familiar with the NFL game, the offense, play-calling, etc. I expect him to improve again this year (a more stable/improved O-line would help, as well).

While the people who are "taking Bell's stats from last year, boosting his efficiency, and multiplying by 16 games = stud RB1;" are making a mistake, you saying "I don't see more than 300 touches" without actually looking at how those touches will add up is also a mistake.

I already posted some rough projections earlier; I'll put a little more thought (and reasoning) behind them here. Keep in mind these will be very early, and very conservative (for the purposes of this discussion)

I expect the Steelers to run about 950 offensive plays next year.

I also expect them to slightly bump their rush totals to 41% (390 rushes).

Bell got 79% of the carries once he hit the field last year; I'm going to drop that % to 65% (254 carries).

Bell averaged 3.1 YPC over his 1st 7 games, and 3.9 YPC over his last 6. I'm going to give him a SLIGHT increase (being conservative, for the sake of this discussion) to an even 4.0 YPC (254 X 4.0 = 1016 yards).

Bell received 66 targets in 13 games (5 targets/game) last year, and caught 68% of those targets. That accounted for 72% of the RB targets during those 13 games.

Haley gives his RBs between 100-115 targets (with the exception of 2011 when Charles was hurt, and he was fired during the season), so I'm going to project 110 targets for Pitt RBs in 2014.

Blount isn't much of a receiving threat, so I'm comfortable giving Bell 75 targets for 2014 (4.7/game). That's a drop in his RB target rate (68%).

I'll also drop his catch rate to 62% (47 catches).

I'll also drop his YPR from 8.9 YPR to 8.0 (376 rec yards).

Since Bell is a more effective SY back than Blount, and should get a score or 2 via the air (although he didn't do so in 2013), I'll project him for 9 TDs. This is essentially the same amount of rushing TDs as he got last year (in comparable carries), plus projecting one through the air.

So, almost 1400 YFS (1392), and 9 TDs or 196 FF points (non-PPR). That would have made him RB10 last year.

I projected him for a very slight increase over his YPC at the end of last year, I projected him for a smaller % of the carries, a smaller number of targets/game, a lower YPR, a lower target rate, a lower catch rate, and a slightly lower TD/carry rate (although I did give him a receiving TD). I left 35% of the carries for the other RBs (110-125 for Blount, 12-27 for Archer/Johnson/"other" RBs), and 32% of the RB targets for other RBs.

So without merely extrapolating his numbers to a full 16 game schedule, or projecting massive improvements, or failing to account for the other RBs, I have a conservative projection for Bell of RB10. That's more than a strong RB2. Furthermore, I expect him to do better than this in several areas; I deliberately lowered my projections to demonstrate that even with Blount and Archer, Bell should still be considered a solid FF RB1 for 2014.

I haven't changed anything -- the difference is that you read "power RB" as "short yardage RB" while by "power RB" I mean "inside banger" as opposed to a more versatile 3 down type. I also think that you are putting too much emphasis on the tiny sample size of Blount's short yardage carries, and ignoring the improvement in his short yardage efficiency last year.

Re: your projection, we're not that far apart -- but your projection (in PPR) would have put Bell at 13th in PPG last year (11th in standard), which isn't what I'm looking for in the 1st round, which is almost certainly where he'll be going. YMMV.

 

[ebsteelers]

As a steeler fan I love adding Bryant, Blount and Archer to the offense.

Also a healthy Heath Miller all year (hopefully)

But if I owned Bell, I'd be nervous the only reason to bring Blount in is to give Bell less of a work load.

Less work never turns out good

 

[Bayhawks]

I haven't changed anything -- the difference is that you read "power RB" as "short yardage RB" while by "power RB" I mean "inside banger" as opposed to a more versatile 3 down type. I also think that you are putting too much emphasis on the tiny sample size of Blount's short yardage carries, and ignoring the improvement in his short yardage efficiency last year.Re: your projection, we're not that far apart -- but your projection (in PPR) would have put Bell at 13th in PPG last year (11th in standard), which isn't what I'm looking for in the 1st round, which is almost certainly where he'll be going. YMMV.

"Inside bangers" would be successful in short-yardage situations, right? So, if Blount was a good "inside banger," his SY stats should reflect that, right?

I am basing this on what I've seen of Blount, and on stats that back up what I've seen. If you have any stats that counter that, please feel free to share them, but based on what I've seen, and the stats that exist, he isn't. He does well when he can get to the second level, he can run through holes and run over DBs, but he isn't very good at getting the tough yards that a "power rb"/"inside banger" should be good at.

With regards to this comment:

I also think that you are putting too much emphasis on the tiny sample size of Blount's short yardage carries, and ignoring the improvement in his short yardage efficiency last year.

You do realize that your are contradicting yourself, right? You say I am putting too much emphasis on a tiny sample size (although it's not a sample size, it's ALL of his short yardage carries in his career), and then suggest that an even smaller sample of 5 carries from 2014 are somehow more reliable? Andre Johnson hasn't scored a lot of TDs in his career, if he puts up 3 in the 1st game of 2014, is he suddenly a TD machine?

Finally, the projections I gave would have made Bell RB10 in standard (193.2 FF points, Reggie Bush was 10 with 193.2), and 10th in ppr (240.2, ADP was 10 with 238.7), not 11th and 13th as you suggest.

While ADP is virtually meaningless at this point, ffcalculator has Bell as the 9th RB off the board (pick 2.04) as of today. He's not a first round pick, so you shouldn't pick him as one, but if you pick a stud WR at the end of round 1, you could do worse than Bell as your 2nd round pick. If you pick a RB in round 1, and get Bell as your RB2, all the better.

 

[cloppbeast]

The Steelers tried to sign MJD; they couldn't sign him because he wants to play, and they won't give him the snaps.

Where exactly are you getting this from? MJD came in for a visit; we don't even know if Pittsburgh offered him a contract. And regardless, it was about money -- with the Steelers' cap situation they couldn't afford to give him the 3 / $7.5 million he was looking for and got from Oakland.

Quite consistent with the general point of what I said, Ed Bouchette writes:

"Here is what Jones-Drew wants: Money, and a place to start. With the Steelers, he would get neither. They have their horse in Le’Veon Bell and are looking for someone to spell him...".

Futile is arguing over the semantics of whether the Steelers "tried to sign him". The takeaway: the Steelers only were interested in signing a back up. Blount accepted that role when he joined.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I haven't changed anything -- the difference is that you read "power RB" as "short yardage RB" while by "power RB" I mean "inside banger" as opposed to a more versatile 3 down type. I also think that you are putting too much emphasis on the tiny sample size of Blount's short yardage carries, and ignoring the improvement in his short yardage efficiency last year.

Re: your projection, we're not that far apart -- but your projection (in PPR) would have put Bell at 13th in PPG last year (11th in standard), which isn't what I'm looking for in the 1st round, which is almost certainly where he'll be going. YMMV.

"Inside bangers" would be successful in short-yardage situations, right? So, if Blount was a good "inside banger," his SY stats should reflect that, right?I am basing this on what I've seen of Blount, and on stats that back up what I've seen. If you have any stats that counter that, please feel free to share them, but based on what I've seen, and the stats that exist, he isn't. He does well when he can get to the second level, he can run through holes and run over DBs, but he isn't very good at getting the tough yards that a "power rb"/"inside banger" should be good at.

With regards to this comment:

I also think that you are putting too much emphasis on the tiny sample size of Blount's short yardage carries, and ignoring the improvement in his short yardage efficiency last year.

You do realize that your are contradicting yourself, right? You say I am putting too much emphasis on a tiny sample size (although it's not a sample size, it's ALL of his short yardage carries in his career), and then suggest that an even smaller sample of 5 carries from 2014 are somehow more reliable? Andre Johnson hasn't scored a lot of TDs in his career, if he puts up 3 in the 1st game of 2014, is he suddenly a TD machine?Finally, the projections I gave would have made Bell RB10 in standard (193.2 FF points, Reggie Bush was 10 with 193.2), and 10th in ppr (240.2, ADP was 10 with 238.7), not 11th and 13th as you suggest.

While ADP is virtually meaningless at this point, ffcalculator has Bell as the 9th RB off the board (pick 2.04) as of today. He's not a first round pick, so you shouldn't pick him as one, but if you pick a stud WR at the end of round 1, you could do worse than Bell as your 2nd round pick. If you pick a RB in round 1, and get Bell as your RB2, all the better.

Not interested in arguing semantics, sorry.

And yes, the short yardage carries are too small a sample size from which to draw a meaningful conclusion, whether broken out or not. I'm certainly not the one basing anything significant on them.

You evidently missed the fact that I stated PPG for your projection -- my numbers are accurate.

We obviously disagree on the relative talent levels of Blount vs. Bell -- and that's OK. Good luck with him this year.