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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
False Start
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
I agree, particularly as it relates to Dri Archer, but I think people are understating how much competition Blount could be for Bell.
At no point last season did Bell look like the type of RB who would automatically be cast into the role of the lead back regardless of competition. While Bell demonstrated some 3 down ability, something that Blount does not offer, I don't think he really proved himself to be a better runner than Blount. Bell will definitely get every opportunity to be the man in Pittsburgh but how long will Pitt stick with him if he doesn't significantly improve on his 3.5 ypc?
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Zyphros
Footballguy
I attribute Bell's shortcummings last season to a couple of things 1. The injury at the beginning of the year. Didn't allow him to get a in a groove (which he excels when he's in that groove). 2. People underrate the ability to be in the same offense for multiple years. Bell seemed a little tentative at the beginning and by the end he excelled.
You will see a more comfortable and decisive Bell this year, and I think you may see the same from Richardson since you mentioned him.
False Start
Footballguy
I think people are overstating it like a year older Blount who has jumped from team to team is a threat to take snaps away from anyone. If Ridley didnt have Fumblitis, Blount would have never have seen the field. Bell is a young back with way more upside, what on gods green earth makes people think Blount is going to take snaps away from Bell? Why because of Blounts OK last year when he did play? News flash, different team and different coach.I agree, particularly as it relates to Dri Archer, but I think people are understating how much competition Blount could be for Bell.
At no point last season did Bell look like the type of RB who would automatically be cast into the role of the lead back regardless of competition. While Bell demonstrated some 3 down ability, something that Blount does not offer, I don't think he really proved himself to be a better runner than Blount. Bell will definitely get every opportunity to be the man in Pittsburgh but how long will Pitt stick with him if he doesn't significantly improve on his 3.5 ypc?
Blount is a backup, and nothing more. Stop overstating it. Stats and other reasons are not needed, just clear common logic may help you understand this I assume. Stop acting as if Blount is something special, he is not. His many team career says that for me, I do not need to say anything else. Patriots didnt even resign him and drafted a rookie in the late rounds, so the team that used him last year didnt think he was anything special either.
False Start
Footballguy
I dont get that feeling, while we are at it. I'm not a big Trent fan, but saying "His whole career" like he has played 6-7 years is funny, he has played two seasons, one he was a rookie and another he was traded mid season.
Balco
Footballguy
No, I meant what I said, his whole career. I wasn't inferring he has played any longer than his career stats indicate.
Balco
Footballguy
Looking at his split stats, he averaged 3.5 ypc the first half of the year, and 3.5 ypc the second half.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I think people are overstating it like a year older Blount who has jumped from team to team is a threat to take snaps away from anyone. If Ridley didnt have Fumblitis, Blount would have never have seen the field. Bell is a young back with way more upside, what on gods green earth makes people think Blount is going to take snaps away from Bell? Why because of Blounts OK last year when he did play? News flash, different team and different coach.I agree, particularly as it relates to Dri Archer, but I think people are understating how much competition Blount could be for Bell.At no point last season did Bell look like the type of RB who would automatically be cast into the role of the lead back regardless of competition. While Bell demonstrated some 3 down ability, something that Blount does not offer, I don't think he really proved himself to be a better runner than Blount. Bell will definitely get every opportunity to be the man in Pittsburgh but how long will Pitt stick with him if he doesn't significantly improve on his 3.5 ypc?
Blount is a backup, and nothing more. Stop overstating it. Stats and other reasons are not needed, just clear common logic may help you understand this I assume. Stop acting as if Blount is something special, he is not. His many team career says that for me, I do not need to say anything else. Patriots didnt even resign him and drafted a rookie in the late rounds, so the team that used him last year didnt think he was anything special either.
I always love when people talk about ignoring statistics in a game based entirely on statistics and math. Just awesome.
Blount doesn't suck, guy. He's 27, so your "a year older" means nothing, and he's actually a really good, if completely one dimensional, runner. He's been extremely solid with two different teams, and sports a career YPC over a full yard better than what Bell managed last year. He is absolutely a significant threat -- probably not to take Bell's job outright, but certainly to grab a bigger role than the scrubs behind Bell had last year. Bell is a solid, versatile RB. He's not an elite, dynamic runner who is immune to losing carries no matter who is brought in. Volume RB - said volume = FF risk. It's not rocket science.
Chaka
Footballguy
Easy killer, this was my second post in the thread and I already acknowledged that it is Bell's job to lose and I never said Blount would take snaps away by default I said it might happen if Bell falters. Big difference.I think people are overstating it like a year older Blount who has jumped from team to team is a threat to take snaps away from anyone. If Ridley didnt have Fumblitis, Blount would have never have seen the field. Bell is a young back with way more upside, what on gods green earth makes people think Blount is going to take snaps away from Bell? Why because of Blounts OK last year when he did play? News flash, different team and different coach.I agree, particularly as it relates to Dri Archer, but I think people are understating how much competition Blount could be for Bell.
At no point last season did Bell look like the type of RB who would automatically be cast into the role of the lead back regardless of competition. While Bell demonstrated some 3 down ability, something that Blount does not offer, I don't think he really proved himself to be a better runner than Blount. Bell will definitely get every opportunity to be the man in Pittsburgh but how long will Pitt stick with him if he doesn't significantly improve on his 3.5 ypc?
Blount is a backup, and nothing more. Stop overstating it. Stats and other reasons are not needed, just clear common logic may help you understand this I assume. Stop acting as if Blount is something special, he is not. His many team career says that for me, I do not need to say anything else. Patriots didnt even resign him and drafted a rookie in the late rounds, so the team that used him last year didnt think he was anything special either.
I don't disagree with your assessment on many levels but I think we both know that Blount's problems relate more to his being a head case than a lack of talent on the field. He is exactly the kind of back that a coach would feel comfortable inserting into the lineup if the lead back falters.
That was my point and it is a valid one. Also Blount fumbled 3 times on 155 touches last year and Ridley fumbled 4 times on 188 touches so his ascension in New England may have been about something other than just a case of fumblitis.
IMO Bell has not proven to be an effective runner in the NFL yet, I think the Pitt O line last year was a huge factor in that but the fact is he has not proven anything yet. I take it that you believe Bell is special?
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'm not sure I even have Lacy over Bell.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
His second half numbers were heavily influenced by one really bad game against one of the league's better run defenses. His last five games he averaged 4.6, 4.1, 2.4 (the aforementioned game), 4.8, and 4.5.
Chaka
Footballguy
While I am not a huge fan of this type of analysis you should at least provide the whole picture. Those games were against Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Cleveland. Baltimore was the 12th rated run defense last year so overall that isn't exactly a murderer's row of run defenses.
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Balco
Footballguy
You have to look at it the other way as well. His best game was against a sieve of a run defense (Packers). It all evens out.
He had a 3.5 yard per carry average. And if you delve even deeper, his ypc in the fourth quarter was pretty bad as well.
I am not saying he won't have a fantasy relevant season, just saying he seems to be extremely overvalued.
False Start
Footballguy
This is the type of thinking that leaves fantasy owners saying "what did I do wrong" as the season goes on.
Balco
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Balco
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Some of you make me wonder if you actually watch football. Guy does it all. Period. Sure Blount will get his but Bell is going to prove to be one of the best players on the field. You don't pull those guys.I agree, particularly as it relates to Dri Archer, but I think people are understating how much competition Blount could be for Bell.At no point last season did Bell look like the type of RB who would automatically be cast into the role of the lead back regardless of competition. While Bell demonstrated some 3 down ability, something that Blount does not offer, I don't think he really proved himself to be a better runner than Blount. Bell will definitely get every opportunity to be the man in Pittsburgh but how long will Pitt stick with him if he doesn't significantly improve on his 3.5 ypc?
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
And let's just end the stupid ### 3.5 argument:
Emmitt Smith 3.9
Walter Peyton 3.7
LT 3.6
Ricky Williams 3.5
I don't point blank tell people to dismiss an argument often but in this case judging him on his rookie YPC is dead wrong.
Emmitt Smith 3.9
Walter Peyton 3.7
LT 3.6
Ricky Williams 3.5
I don't point blank tell people to dismiss an argument often but in this case judging him on his rookie YPC is dead wrong.
Balco
Footballguy
Again, I am not saying Bell will not be fantasy relevant, I am saying he is very overvalued at this point.
The fact Blount is not a threat in the passing game ensures that Bell will get plenty of touches. But if he slips up in the running game, I think Blount can turn this into a time share.
Chaka
Footballguy
Ahhhhh, the tried and true "do you even watch the games?" canard.Some of you make me wonder if you actually watch football. Guy does it all. Period. Sure Blount will get his but Bell is going to prove to be one of the best players on the field. You don't pull those guys.I agree, particularly as it relates to Dri Archer, but I think people are understating how much competition Blount could be for Bell.At no point last season did Bell look like the type of RB who would automatically be cast into the role of the lead back regardless of competition. While Bell demonstrated some 3 down ability, something that Blount does not offer, I don't think he really proved himself to be a better runner than Blount. Bell will definitely get every opportunity to be the man in Pittsburgh but how long will Pitt stick with him if he doesn't significantly improve on his 3.5 ypc?
The funny thing is no one is saying he isn't going to be the lead back, I think it is pretty clear that it is Bell's job to lose. I think a lot of us are not yet convinced that his production will improve and if it doesn't there is a very capable RB behind him on the depth chart.
I think the Pitt O-line is going to be improved this season so I am optimistic that Bell will improve his YPC numbers and if it does then the sky may very well be the limit for him. I am guessing that we are arguing little more than where Bell should be ranked within a few spots of the same tier.
And please remind us which NFL franchise you work for Mr. Game Watcher?
habsfan
Footballguy
As a guy drafting at the back of a 12 teamer redraft, Bell feels a bit like a consolation prize at 2.0X...Ahhhhh, the tried and true "do you even watch the games?" canard.Some of you make me wonder if you actually watch football. Guy does it all. Period. Sure Blount will get his but Bell is going to prove to be one of the best players on the field. You don't pull those guys.I agree, particularly as it relates to Dri Archer, but I think people are understating how much competition Blount could be for Bell.At no point last season did Bell look like the type of RB who would automatically be cast into the role of the lead back regardless of competition. While Bell demonstrated some 3 down ability, something that Blount does not offer, I don't think he really proved himself to be a better runner than Blount. Bell will definitely get every opportunity to be the man in Pittsburgh but how long will Pitt stick with him if he doesn't significantly improve on his 3.5 ypc?
The funny thing is no one is saying he isn't going to be the lead back, I think it is pretty clear that it is Bell's job to lose. I think a lot of us are not yet convinced that his production will improve and if it doesn't there is a very capable RB behind him on the depth chart.
I think the Pitt O-line is going to be improved this season so I am optimistic that Bell will improve his YPC numbers and if it does then the sky may very well be the limit for him. I am guessing that we are arguing little more than where Bell should be ranked within a few spots of the same tier.
And please remind us which NFL franchise you work for Mr. Game Watcher?
False Start
Footballguy
False Start
Footballguy
Easy to see so many people have Blount on their team.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Problem is, he's a 22-year old 3-down running back that looks to have a reasonably strong hold on the starting job. In the current dynasty landscape there just aren't many other guys that can say all three of those things.
I agree that Blount is underrated and think Bell will see a lesser share of the touches than he did last year. I also think that Bell is underrated as a player and he may even benefit from a little less work, not to mention the line coming back together a little bit.
Bell is not an elite running back. But I also don't think he's merely an average running back who happens to be a starter. I think he's firmly in the above average/good category as a runner and, when you throw in his receiving and goaline ability that makes him a very strong dynasty asset as a 22 year old, especially when you consider the alternatives under the age of 27.
This reads exactly like a 2013 description of Doug Martin. Not elite, but young and has stranglehold on the job.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Or a 2010 description of LeSean McCoy or a 2009 description of Matt Forte.
And FWIW, even coming off of a major injury and a regime change, Doug Martin is currently the #4 RB in FBG dynasty rankings.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I don't understand the harsh words if you have high optimism for the guy. And for the guy further questioning YPC argument:Ahhhhh, the tried and true "do you even watch the games?" canard.The funny thing is no one is saying he isn't going to be the lead back, I think it is pretty clear that it is Bell's job to lose. I think a lot of us are not yet convinced that his production will improve and if it doesn't there is a very capable RB behind him on the depth chart.Some of you make me wonder if you actually watch football. Guy does it all. Period. Sure Blount will get his but Bell is going to prove to be one of the best players on the field. You don't pull those guys.I agree, particularly as it relates to Dri Archer, but I think people are understating how much competition Blount could be for Bell.At no point last season did Bell look like the type of RB who would automatically be cast into the role of the lead back regardless of competition. While Bell demonstrated some 3 down ability, something that Blount does not offer, I don't think he really proved himself to be a better runner than Blount. Bell will definitely get every opportunity to be the man in Pittsburgh but how long will Pitt stick with him if he doesn't significantly improve on his 3.5 ypc?
I think the Pitt O-line is going to be improved this season so I am optimistic that Bell will improve his YPC numbers and if it does then the sky may very well be the limit for him. I am guessing that we are arguing little more than where Bell should be ranked within a few spots of the same tier.
And please remind us which NFL franchise you work for Mr. Game Watcher?
Travis Henry 3.4
Eddie George 4.1 and then only had over 4.0 YPC season the rest of his career.
Marshawn Lynch 4.0 and two sub 4.0 seasons in his first four years
Marshall Faulk 4.1 followed by 3.7 and 3.0
Reggie Bush 3.6 followed by two sub 4.0 seasons
Jerome Bettis 2nd/3rd yr 3.2 and 3.5 (4.9 his first year)
Thomas Jones 3.3, 3.4, 3.7
Yes I do believe that the Steelers line was that bad last year. He does not have the extra gear that will get him into the stratosphere of RB's. I think he can easily get 4.2 YPC with anticipated improved line play. He won't break a lot of long runs but he's a consistent grinder with good vision, burst and great receiving skills.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Best bet is that Bell plays 2 of every 3 series and Blount the other. I don't think either guy is a designated GL/SY back. Whoever is in the game when they get inside the 5 gets those carries. Archer will be a gadget play guy who will catch passes out of the backfield and in the slot. His carries will be insignificant.
Project these guys at 64/32/4 as far as % of carries. Multiply by # of times you think the Steelers will run the ball.
Project these guys at 64/32/4 as far as % of carries. Multiply by # of times you think the Steelers will run the ball.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Blount has been rather miserable at SY.
All his damage, historically, was on 1st and 2nd down outside of short yardage.
For his career on 3rd and 4th with short yards to go... 0.93 yards per carry.
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AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
This is pretty much what I'm expecting.
Last year Bell got 74% of the touches once he returned from injury, and finished 9th in PPG. This year he's being drafted as the 6th RB off the board. I expect a jump in efficiency, but probably not enough to offset the decline in workload due to Blount > Dwyer. I think a RB10 - RB15 or so finish for Bell is most likely, so I'm not going to be taking him in the late 1st / early 2nd.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'd be comfortable with him about a round later than he's currently going -- 2/3 turn instead of 1/2 turn.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
May have been noted above recently, but Bell had a Lisfranc foot sprain, which can be a serious injury.
Maybe his was a less severe gradation, but in a lot of previous cases it has wrecked the players season. It may be to his credit that he was able to play at all and as well as he did if he was in pain. Its not like playing with a bruised rib. Feet are kind of important for RBs.
I think Bell broke the PIT rookie record for yards from scrimmage set by Franco Harris that stood for over 40 years ('72), and in one less game (Franco played in 14).
* From the perspective of an orthopedic surgeon.
http://www.draftsharks.com/article/1757/a-doctor-s-take-on-le-veon-bell
FBG Rankings
redraft
Lacy (5)
Bell (10)
Ball (11)
Bernard (12)
redraft PPR
Lacy (5)
Bernard (8)
Bell (10)
Ball (12)
dynasty (no non-PPR & PPR distinction)
Bernard (3)
Lacy (tied-5th with Peterson)
Bell (7)
Ball (13)
Lacy the constant at 5 in all three formats (with two firsts and one second)
Bernard flips from worst in standard redraft to first in dynasty among this group from the class of '13, and is also second in redraft PPR
Bell is consistent in standing/placement range, as high as second and no worse than third in the three formats
Ball most consistent in ranking range after Lacy, but lowest average of the four RBs with 11-12-13 ranking in the three formats, and the only one to have a lower (albeit only slightly) dynasty than redraft (either format) ranking, no doubt due to concerns about the post-Manning landscape in DEN.
Maybe his was a less severe gradation, but in a lot of previous cases it has wrecked the players season. It may be to his credit that he was able to play at all and as well as he did if he was in pain. Its not like playing with a bruised rib. Feet are kind of important for RBs.
I think Bell broke the PIT rookie record for yards from scrimmage set by Franco Harris that stood for over 40 years ('72), and in one less game (Franco played in 14).
* From the perspective of an orthopedic surgeon.
http://www.draftsharks.com/article/1757/a-doctor-s-take-on-le-veon-bell
FBG Rankings
redraft
Lacy (5)
Bell (10)
Ball (11)
Bernard (12)
redraft PPR
Lacy (5)
Bernard (8)
Bell (10)
Ball (12)
dynasty (no non-PPR & PPR distinction)
Bernard (3)
Lacy (tied-5th with Peterson)
Bell (7)
Ball (13)
Lacy the constant at 5 in all three formats (with two firsts and one second)
Bernard flips from worst in standard redraft to first in dynasty among this group from the class of '13, and is also second in redraft PPR
Bell is consistent in standing/placement range, as high as second and no worse than third in the three formats
Ball most consistent in ranking range after Lacy, but lowest average of the four RBs with 11-12-13 ranking in the three formats, and the only one to have a lower (albeit only slightly) dynasty than redraft (either format) ranking, no doubt due to concerns about the post-Manning landscape in DEN.
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This is a little misleading, as you'd expect a guy to have a decent sample size in four years, but he actually got his largest short yardage workload of his career last year with a whopping 8 carries. In his first 3 years in the league, he got 6, 4, and 1.
Bell had 15 last year. His short yardage stats are greatly skewed due to this play where he runs through a gaping hole and makes on cut behind a blocker about 5 yards past the line of scrimmage for 43 yards. A nice play, but not one that anyone else couldn't have made.
At this point, I don't think one of them stands out above the other. They are both large backs. If I had to guess, they'll stick with the guy who has earned their trust rather than the new guy. I also think Blount hasn't had the best ball security, but I could be wrong.
False Start
Footballguy
Great thought, but the injury was supposed to keep him out longer but didnt... that tells me it seems to be less severe. Also, similar foot injuries are not keeping people off of Julio. Hmmm, could the only reason be a players hype? Possibly.
Also, the injury could of had an effect on the learning curve for Bell, so to me Bell is looking at a big upshot and I'm shocked others do not see it. What it tells me really about some comments and posts, just dont listen to them.
If we listened to the majority of negative stuff in posts by people, Lacy comes out as a horrible player. I even believe comments from the thread caused Lacy to fall in my rookie draft last year. Good thing he only won rookie of the year.
I think this is a prime example that some people want Bell to do bad just because they own Blount and completely throwing out logic that Bell is a young back with more upside and Blount is a bigger older back who jumps team to team for a reason.
Draft Blount and pass on Bell, let me know how it works out for you. Like it really matters on this board though, no one is held accountable for what they say. NO ONE, for how wrong they are on posts and if you call them out you get some grief. Amazing, really.
I'm sure someone would say "I'm not advocating for Blount over Bell, I''m advocating that Blount takes away carries." Is there a running back who gets 100% or even 90% of the teams carries in the NFL? Every team splits carries. So no, your argument is Blount is just as talented as Bell, and that simply is not true.
Oh, and I was all about Lacy too even after people dogged him talking of how Franklin could get a lot of carries, so needless to say, I'm glad I have my own opinion.
Also, the injury could of had an effect on the learning curve for Bell, so to me Bell is looking at a big upshot and I'm shocked others do not see it. What it tells me really about some comments and posts, just dont listen to them.
If we listened to the majority of negative stuff in posts by people, Lacy comes out as a horrible player. I even believe comments from the thread caused Lacy to fall in my rookie draft last year. Good thing he only won rookie of the year.
I think this is a prime example that some people want Bell to do bad just because they own Blount and completely throwing out logic that Bell is a young back with more upside and Blount is a bigger older back who jumps team to team for a reason.
Draft Blount and pass on Bell, let me know how it works out for you. Like it really matters on this board though, no one is held accountable for what they say. NO ONE, for how wrong they are on posts and if you call them out you get some grief. Amazing, really.
I'm sure someone would say "I'm not advocating for Blount over Bell, I''m advocating that Blount takes away carries." Is there a running back who gets 100% or even 90% of the teams carries in the NFL? Every team splits carries. So no, your argument is Blount is just as talented as Bell, and that simply is not true.
Oh, and I was all about Lacy too even after people dogged him talking of how Franklin could get a lot of carries, so needless to say, I'm glad I have my own opinion.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Just offered Jeremy Hill + a 2015 1st rounder for Leveon. I doubt he takes it.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah, well Franklin had 100+ rushing in his only start. He had talent. Sucks that his career ended so quickly because he looked just as good as Gio that day, if not better.
False Start
Footballguy
The two bolded make my point, As good as Gio?
Well great he looked good in one game. So have many other players. Franklin looked so good, he went right back to the bench when Lacy came back. Some people just will continue to just say stuff. Starks does well when he gets a shot, maybe he is a threat to Lacy .
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I'm a believer in the theory that coaches are generally pretty good at what they're doing, so of course my first question when I see that is "why does Blount only have 19 career short-yardage carries?" Looking only at the same span (since 2010), Blount has fewer short-yardage carries than Donald Brown, Danny Woodhead, Justin Forsett, Delone Carter, Tashard Choice, Rashad Jennings, Daniel Thomas, John Kuhn, Jackie Battle, and Isaac Redman, among others. Since 2010, Blount ranks 29th in total carries and 52nd in short-yardage carries. Why is that?
Now, add to this the fact that of the 88 different RBs to have received 10+ short yardage carries since 2010, Blount ranks tied with Thomas Jones for 85th in first down percentage, converting just 42% of his carries on 3rd or 4th down with 1-3 yards to go into a new set of downs. The only RBs since 2010 with a worse conversion rate are Javon Ringer and Darren McFadden. Blount also ranks 84th in yards per carry in those situations, ahead of just Ringer, McFadden, Jones, and Sammy Morris.
So, combine the fact that his coaches have had an extreme aversion to using him in short yardage with the fact that in the rare cases when he's gotten used he's been an unmitigated disaster, and I feel quite comfortable saying that there is a very high probability that Blount is simply terrible in short-yardage situations.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Go back and watch that game. Franklin had fewer touches and more yards playing against a much better defense.The two bolded make my point, As good as Gio?
Well great he looked good in one game. So have many other players. Franklin looked so good, he went right back to the bench when Lacy came back. Some people just will continue to just say stuff. Starks does well when he gets a shot, maybe he is a threat to Lacy .
Starks is a good player. He can't hold a candle to Lacy though. Franklin was drafted to complement and spell Lacy. I thought he had great promise.
Haha, well, I agree that's generally a good theory (although not one that I'd blindly rely on). However, I think we can both agree that Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano were terrible, and thus, it's very possible that Blount was indeed mis-used and/or poorly coached during his first 3 years after missing the majority of his final season in Oregon. Additionally, when you start using statistics from a sample of admittedly "rare cases" then you've obviously got too small of a sample size to draw meaningful conclusions, thus, I recommend you reconsider how comfortable you are.
Blount has said in interviews that he received very little coaching while under the Morris regime. Schiano made his dislike for Blount publicly known. So I don't see why you'd think he has no ability to improve when given direction. He's not afraid of contact and seems to have good vision, so I think he's certainly got potential as a short yardage back.
But just to be clear, I did say that I expect Bell to be the goal line back, so this is all moot. So I think you got the right answer, but when you show your work, it's all wrong.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
On field and warming up with RBs today. But not in pads/uniform.
