Bronco Billy said:
Adam Harstad said:
FF Ninja said:
Adam Harstad said:
I'll believe it when I see it. As I said, few backs have been worse in short yardage and goal-to-go situations than LaGarrette Blount.
Is there anything to back this up? I'm probably not going after either of these players this year so it's kind of a moot point personally, however I see this stated routinely despite the fact that he's had a very small sample size for 4 year vet. From that sample, I'd say he's been fairly average.
People act like he's had a ton of opportunities and just been terrible, but in fact he's only had a few and, while he hasn't impressed, he hasn't really been awful, either. Further, you'd have to think goal line running would be easier to learn than pass protection so it's not unthinkable that he could've improved after a year of actual coaching. (three years under Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano might've done more harm than good)
This post has all the numbers, and they're extremely grim. Not only is the sample size small given his total workload (why haven't coaches been giving him short-yardage carries before?), but the success rate has been absolutely dire. Le'Veon Bell ranks 85th out of 88 RBs in short-yardage conversion rate since entering the league, which ties with Thomas Jones and beats out only Darren McFadden and Javon Ringer. Only Ringer, McFadden, Thomas Jones, and Sammy Morris- out of a sample of 88 RBs since 2010!- average fewer yards per carry in short-yardage situations than LaGarrette Blount.
That's interesting, because last year according to Football Outsiders Blount was tied for the second best success rate in the league, behind only Woodhead, for all players with at least 100 carries.They define success on a running play as follows:
In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.
link
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Success rate is not the same as being good in short yardage. One way to have a high success rate is to get a lot of 6-yard gains on 1st and 10. In fact, since LeGarrette Blount has had so few short yardage carries in his career, his success rate will be disproportionately represented by his work on 1st and 2nd down.
I'm not saying Blount is a bad RB. Since 2010, 107 RBs have gotten at least 50 carries on 1st and 10. Of those 107 RBs, Blount ranks a remarkable 7th in yards per carry! He obviously has some skills and some strengths. It's just that, for his career so far, "short yardage" has not been one of those strengths, so the news that Pittsburgh is planning on using him as a short-yardage RB is puzzling to me.
(Note: I'm aware that the news was they're going to use him as a goal-line RB, but goal line success correlates well with short-yardage success, and by substituting all short-yardage carries in for just goal-line carries we get a much larger sample size.)
It's also worth noting that New England's offense is EXTREMELY favorable for producing awesome success rate figures. Blount ranked 3rd in success rate last year... but Ridley ranked 7th. In 2012, Ridley ranked 4th. In 2011, BJGE ranked 6th. In 2010, BJGE ranked 2nd. In 2009, Laurence Maroney-
Laurence Maroney!- ranked 11th. In 2008, Sammy Morris ranked 10th. In 2007, Laurence Maroney-
Laurence Maroney!- ranked 2nd. In 2006, Corey Dillon ranked 6th. In 2005, Corey Dillon ranked 9th. In 2004, Corey Dillon ranked 5th. You have to go back more than a decade to Antoine Smith and Kevin Faulk in 2003 to find a featured back in New England who ranked worse than 11th in success rate, despite New England trotting out some truly awful RBs in that span. In that respect, LeGarrette Blount's strong success rate last year doesn't really give us all that much information about him as a player.