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RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 3 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
And a good Friday to all of you. I do apologize for the RB thread this week, but MoP has been uber busy this week and hopefully you Sharks will be understnading. I do not have all the game done but I am going to go ahead and put up what I do have, and then I will finish the rest over the weekend. I also will try and have a Sunday morning Thread in the ACF...that's the Assist Coach's Forum.

Lot of injuries to sort thru and I imagaine I will be in this thread a lot over the weekend so please check back for updates as well. Here we go...

Arizona at Washington

Overview: While the Cardinals have been a great story so far in the NFL, they have faced the big bad 49ers and the Miami Dolphins, and I’m not sure we can make a real assessment of how good they are. I have to think with a fairly soft schedule that they can string about 9-10 wins together which will be more than enough to take the NFC West at the rate that division is disintegrating. The Cards are going to travel into DC this upcoming weekend and I do feel like reality will set in.

The Skins on the other hand faced the world champs on opening night, lost 16-7 in a game that was not even that close. Then they turn around and knock off a very talented but Colstonless Saints team. This week they will have their hands full with Fitz and Boldin, but as far as stopping the run they should do pretty well. The Cardinals are only avg 2.7 ypc and while the Skins allow 4.1 ypc, I’m not sure the Skins OL has the talent to exploit a lot of team, besides they are built to protect the old guy chucking the ball all over the place.

Edge: He has been relieved of goal line duties it would seem. Now if Hightower continues to fumble I can’t see them pushing him into the game in crucial situations. If Edge is getting pulled at the goal line every time, he becomes almost worthless in FF. 18/55 last week landed him at #43, the week before he had 26/100, but that only landed him at the back end with #22 in the rankings. So far he is not helping teams…remember that when someone says he has about 160 yds rushing for the season…BIG DEAL!!!

Tim Hightower: Not being used for a whole lot outside of the short TD runs he has hd the past couple of weeks. If you play in TD only or TD heavy leagues he is worth a consideration but I don’t see him doing a lot of damage on the road this week, so just keep him on the bench for now.

Clinton Portis : Called for a big game last week and he managed about 100 yds and 2 TD, most owners will take that anytime. I think once again this week he should fare well. Nothing crazy but how bout 75 and a TD? I do think the Skins will win this week so I am thinking Portis will be asked to run out the clock and /or move the sticks when they get a lead.

Final Score: Washington 17…Arizona 16

Kansas City at Atlanta

Overview: The Chiefs looked dreadful last week as they allowed the Raiders to march into Arrowhead and push them around on both sides of the ball all day, just unreal. The Chiefs are in complete disarray but there is hope in the form of the Falcons who I said last week were in a return to Earth game with TB. The Chiefs are only avg 3.4 ypc, but the Falcons are giving up over 4.5 a clip.

The Falcons are close to the top in rushing in the NFL despite their laying an egg in Tampa last week. I think the Falcons rebound and manage to stave off the Chiefs this week who are allowing a whopping 213 yds per game and a stellar 5.7 ypc on the defense(loose term). I look for Atlanta to try and establish the run which they might be able to do, and I believe Michael Turner will be another strong play this week.

Larry Johnson: Can we allow him 1 more week? I understand he is crippling teams but he should do well or at least decent against the Falcons who are not that tough on defense, sorry. I understand some will not wait on LJ and will start trying to move their RB3 into the line up…again I understand but I would not support that quite yet. If he lays another egg along with the Chiefs this weekend, I will simply not support him the rest of the way.

Jamaal Charles: Really didn’t see any increase last week after it was talked about in the media that he would see n increase in touches. Leave him on the bench for sure.

Michael Turner : Start him, should do very well this week. Atlanta is avg over 200 yds a game rushing, while the Chiefs are allowing over 200 yds a game rushing on defense. This spells fun times for Turner owners over the weekend.

Jerious Norwood: Spot start in the flex in your dynasty leagues? I can get on board with that this week. Look what Bush, Fargas, and DMC all did against the Chiefs and I think the week before in NE, it was a mish mash of guys that beat the Chiefs. I would not be surprised if Norwood has a couple of big plays on Sunday.

Final Score: Atlanta 27…Kansas City 17

Cincinnati at NY Giants

Overview: The Giants should mop the floor with the Bengals this weekend. The reigning World Champs are off to anice 2-0 start and there is no reason for them not to continue rolling along. The Bengals struggle to run the ball anyways but a 3.0 ypc going up against a rush defense only allowing 76 yds a game. The Ginats on the other hand come in avg 177 yds a game on the ground and the Bengals have been giving up about 175 a game, so the odds are way stacked in the favor of NY.

Chris Perry: No way I can see this as a good match up. Cinci is in a tailspin and they are going to continue losing because of the way they handle things on and off the field. Leave Perry on your bench, can’t really see him turning it on against the Giants.

Brandon Jacobs: If he could get in the end zone he would be a pretty strong play every week. 100 yds and no scores puts him as a fringe starter. He has strong potential again this week.

Derrick Ward: only there to give Jacobs a breather, no way you start him unless Jacobs is not playing for some reason.

Ahmad Bradshaw: I doubt he throws another TD pass this week. His stats are really independent of what Jacobs does, but right at this point there doesn’t seem to be a huge game plan for him…I really think no carries in wek 1 was the team’s way of disciplining him for his time in jail over the summer. The club loves this guy and he needs to get some touches each week, but its clear he is not going to be showcased just yet.

Final Score: NY Giants 34…Cincinnati 13

Miami at New England

Overview: The Pats are avg 3.8 ypc and Miami is giving up 3.1 ypc…add in the fact the Dolphins weakness is against the pass, not exactly the strength of the Pats at the moment, and I start to smell a BIG UPSET this weekend…would love the money line and Miami straight up. Miami cannot run the ball but NE gives up about 4.3 yds a clip so there is room for some optimism here.

Ronnie Brown: He’s the starter, I don’t care what the lip service is from Sporano and the rest of the team. He was starting to get into a rhythm last week and I look for him to get stronger and stronger as the season unfolds…he is a terrific “trade for” at the moment. I think he will surprise some folks this weekend. I won’t green light him but I do think he cracks the top25.

Ricky Williams : Not lighting it up, looks slow to me, can’t find the holes when there is some…not much I like about Ricky right now.

Lamont Jordan and Laurence Maroney: Both of them are missing practice, monitor their situations, but for right now I gotta put a red light on the two of them.

Sammy Morris : No reason to not start him although I think he will struggle to find room on Miami this weekend.

Kevin Faulk: Always a credible felx option but with Cassel under Center I don’t like his opps OOTB, however he did catch 4/50 IIRC last week.

Final Score: Miami 16…New England 14

Houston at Tennessee

Overview: What is the mindset of the Texans right about now? Gotta like the Titans at home this week even if they are also having their own distractions right now. The Titans cannot be run on with big bad Albert Haynesworth in there at DT/NT…just not gonna run on them. The Titans though should have clear sailing and look for both Chris Johnson and LenDale White to pound the football on Sunday.

Ahman Green: OUT

Steve Slaton: He got rocked in that Pitt game and I would almost be willing to bet he wants no part of the Titans come about the 2nd/3rd quarter after he gets rocked again. He is frail by NFL standards and he doesn’t run with any type of authority, even DBs want to get in on this guy. Bad match up.

Chris Johnson: Should have a nice game this weekend, no reason to bench a top10 RB at this juncture.

LenDale White: Will likely post about 50-60 yds and I see him hitting paydirt this weekend.

Final Score: Tennessee 24…Houston 17

Carolina at Minnesota

Overview: 2 teams that have started off on different sides of the aisle. Carolina has pulled out 2 wins over some pretty good teams/defenses. They see Steve Smith coming back this week and I expect him to try and make a splash like Marshall did last week…seriously, just pencil him in for about 10 catches on Sunday. I expect a full on Steve Smith show as running the ball with DWill and JStew is going to be pretty rough. The Vikes will continue to pound the ball, and they have made a switch at QB to Frerotte, woopee.

DWill: not a good play this weekend

JStew: See DWill…although he is always worthy of a start in TD heavy leagues, he could possibly punch one in from short range.

ADP: You need to watch the injury report…if he is out this week, and you have Chester Taylor…get Taylor ready because IMO he will produce just fine.

Chester Taylor: See ADP.

Final Score: Minnesota 22…Carolina 21

And I now turn the mic over to JGalligan...

Oakland @ Buffalo

Bills rush defense: I’m gonna go on a limb and state that the Bills may be the real deal this year. While their offense has played a major role in that, the defense has done even more so. In fact, the defensive play has been quite a pleasant surprise. Well, not for opposing RBs, but the off-season acquisition of Marcus Stroud appears to have pushed the team over the edge. The Bills are letting up just over 90 yards per game total from opposing runners, and have only allowed one rushing TD to be scored upon them thus far. This isn’t your grandfathers’ Bills’ rush defense boys and girls.

Darren McFadden

Last week: 21 rushes for 164 yards, one TD, and two fumble’s

Oh, how it feels to watch a RB you were sure was more hype than substance, break out just like all the supporters predicted he would. Tis a fantastic feeling! With the Fargas injury reportedly sidelining him for at least a few weeks, the Darren McFadden era has officially begun. It almost seems too good to be true…

Week three verdict: There’s some concern about his toe, but I for one can never take toe injuries too seriously. I think McFadden knows what’s at stake now with Fargas out – there’s no way he’s missing this game and putting up some solid numbers.

Michael Bush

Last week: 16 rushes for 90 yards, one TD, and one fumble

Darren Sproles was the waiver wire steal in the wake of week two and Michael Bush appears primed to claim the title heading into week two. Despite facing a tough rushing defense in the Bills this upcoming Sunday, the combination of McFadden and Bush should give us a very good gauge as to just how good the two opposing parties really are.

Week three verdict: I’m a big fan and have bought into the hype, but will be watching closely to see how he follows up his impressive 2008 debut.

Raiders rush defense: The Raiders rushing defense is apparently the polar opposite of the passing defense, in that it doesn’t completely suck. I’m not saying that they’re a top unit or anything, but they have the potential to be a pesky, throw-your-television-out-the-window, type matchup. Although the unit is near the top of the league in rushing yards given up per game (98.0), they have given up a grand total of THREE rushing TDs.

Marshawn Lynch

Last week: 19 rushes for 59 yards and one TD

As optimistically promising as the Raiders rushing defense could be, Marshawn Lynch is going to continuously mow through them like a freight train. It’s almost like he’s a Marion Barber, except that he’s aware that he is NOT made of titanium. The odds are in favor for a lot of smash mouth football in this matchup, and they’re also in favor of a big fantasy day for Lynch.

Week three verdict: The stars are aligned…

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Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Colts rush defense: Hey, is anyone else having déjà-vu? Wait, wait – it’s coming back to me, it’s coming back. I GOT IT! The Colts rushing defense looks like Swiss cheese again, just like the old days! Not to mention that its being reported that Bob Sanders (Mr. Anti-rush himself) could be out 4-6 weeks due to an injury. Add all of that up and what do you get? Reason to once again rejoice when you see the letters IND next to your RBs for that particular week! Woo-hoo! I missed you guys! The Colts were ranked 28th in the league in rushing yards given up – and are a safe bet to move even further down the ladder with Bob Sanders now off the field. Cha-ching!

Maurice Jones-Drew

Last week: 7 rushes for 17 yards and one TD

Well, would you look at that? Apparently the thing that John Madden loved to bring up every seven and a half minutes is turning out to be true! Running backs aren’t so effective without their offensive line! The Jaguars offensive line injury woes have sent shockwaves through the entire offense, turning the formerly immune to interceptions, David Garrard, into… not so immune to interceptions. It’s also turned the firecracker that was Maurice Jones-Drew into a dud -- One of the duds that snaps a little bit, but still a dud none-the-less. A banged up O-Line + An ineffective David Garrard = Bad tidings for MJD’s point totals.

Week three verdict: It’s up in the air. If you had a gun to my head, I wouldn’t predict good things from MJD this week – at least not yet.

Fred Taylor

Last week: 14 rushes for 49 yards

One guy who doesn’t seem too concerned about the whole Jaguar offensive line whine-fest is Fred Taylor, who would probably put up close to 50 yards even if he was the only player on the field for the offense. If the news broke tomorrow that Fred Taylor was a robot made of metal, I’d obviously be a bit shocked – but not very much so. We should start calling him the Terminator!

Week three verdict: Age schmage…

Jaguars rush defense: The Jaguars rushing defense sure looks like they miss Marcus Stroud. Why did they let him go again? They’re not necessarily what you could call a bad unit at the moment, but they sure haven’t shown to be the shutdown defense they were just a short time ago. A kick start from the offense could only help the defense however, so if you subscribe to the belief that the Jaguars are going to bounce back and bounce back hard, the Jags defense as a whole could get better as the season moves on. Heading into week three, the Jaguars are letting up a bit over 100 yards on the ground and have given up two rushing TDs.

Joseph Addai

Last week: 15 rushes for 20 yards and one TD

Can Joseph Addai’s running woes be attributed to poor offensive line play or his own struggles in what is his third NFL season? Could it be a mixture of both? Have Peyton Manning’s non-stop, commercial-related, wise-cracks finally taken their toll? How many more questions am I going to ask myself? Would it really surprise you if Addai breaks out for 80 yards and a TD this week? I hope not, because it’s going to happen.

Week three verdict: Breakout week! It’s all documented and filed for better or worse.

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N.Y.J. @ San Diego

Chargers rush defense: You don’t know what you got till it’s gone. Shawn Merriman may not have been the most popular player among non-Charger fans, but you have to admit, the guy took that defense and put it on a whole ‘nother level. So far in life without Merriman, the Chargers are letting up close to 150 rushing yards per game. Good thing Philip Rivers decided to man up this year.

Thomas Jones

Last week: 17 rushes for 70 yards

I think it’s safe to say that Thomas Jones successfully answered his critics that were saying he wasn’t starting RB material. I still don’t get how that argument even made sense, because if you really stare at his stats from last year and factor in just how horrible his offensive line was – it’s just simply amazing. Never mind that he didn’t get injured. Dude’s a machine! TJ has a 4.3 yard per carry average and there have been no indications that both it and his overall production is going to be doing anything different anytime soon.

Week three verdict: This coming Sunday will be TJ’s best performance so far this year.

Jets rush defense: Could the Jets biggest off-season acquisition turn out to be on the opposite side of where it is believed to have come from? Gasp! Kris Jenkins mere presence effects the entire makeup of the defense, even if he isn’t doing anything. The Jets are one of only six teams to have held their opponents to less than 80 yards rushing per game, average. They also have one of the lowest attempts per game against them, showing that teams just don’t like to run the ball near Kris Jenkins.

Darren Sproles

Last week: 7 rushes for 53 yards

True, Sproles looked agile, sharp, and fast in all seven of his carries this past Sunday. But if you take away the home run TD reception – say, he just got tackled after gaining 12 yards – I don’t think we’d be hearing as much hype that we’re currently experiencing. I’m not saying he won’t be a great L.T. replacement, because he’s definitely got the talent. I am saying I’m skeptical to label him the heir to L.T.’s thrown after one well-blocking home run reception.

Week three verdict: I can’t believe I spent one of my few waiver wire pickups on that guy…

Thanks Josh...

I will have the rest of the game up somtime late tonight/tomorrow morning so check back. Have a great weekend everyone, and good luck.

 
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Miami over the Pats at New England? For real?

NE has gone 21-0 in their last 21 regular season games. Miami has gone 1-20.

 
I know the offensive line is a big indicator of whether or not a RB will do good but Indy's rush D is horrid. I would think MJD would produce more than that. I've got the choice of starting either him or Forte. I'm leaning towards MJD. Thoughts?

Thanks again for the insight MoP, like the bold prediction for the Fish up ending the Pats.

 
Miami over the Pats at New England? For real?NE has gone 21-0 in their last 21 regular season games. Miami has gone 1-20.
For the record, I had nothing to do with the game predictions -- I just wrote the KC/ATL, OAK/BUF, JAX/IND, and NYJ/SD write ups. Just wanted to throw out there so I wasn't associated with such an insane prediction. :thumbup:
 
Miami over the Pats at New England? For real?NE has gone 21-0 in their last 21 regular season games. Miami has gone 1-20.
For the record, I had nothing to do with the game predictions -- I just wrote the KC/ATL, OAK/BUF, JAX/IND, and NYJ/SD write ups. Just wanted to throw out there so I wasn't associated with such an insane prediction. :whistle:
I'm just playing MOP, I'm not gonna throw you under the bus like that. Although it is a curious prediction... :thumbup: on your side as always, though. :thumbup:
 
Thanks for labeling all of my RB options this week as terrible matchups. Unfortunately your analysis last week was right on the money :bag:

Curious as to how you see the Saints RBs this week? Does McAllister actually get more carries and does he take them away from Bush or Thomas???

 
I won't call you out on the Dolphins prediction since its a division matchup with an unproven QB and would be very gratifying to Parcells.

Having said that, I like Morris for 17/123/2 TD, 6/44/1 TD.

Cassel to Moss on a couple bombs.

NE 35

MIA 10

 
your analysis of Sproles is flawed. You can't use the line 'one well placed block' like that! its football...well placed blocks

spring many a rb free to run for a TD...part of the game. :eek:

the bottom line is, SD plays the Jets, not known as a great run-stuffing defense..even if LT plays, he will be limited..Sproles is lightning quick and is versatile, and he should post 100+ total yards and at least 1 TD in a game where the Vegas line is SD -9, and the over is 44pts..that means you'll see a LOT of scoring in this mostly lopsided contest..

and that line was put in place, with handicappers knowing full-well that LT might not play..

my$$ is on Sproles running THROUGH the NY Jets on his way to a HUGE game as `fantasy player of the week`..

I agree about LJ, I think you give him this week,if he bombs, you lose him.but something tells me he's going for about 125 rush yards, and 2td..just enough to make you hold on to him, so that next week, he can break your heart once again. :lmao: in all seriousness, This is LJ's sell high game...trade him on monday if he goes off on Sunday!! :thumbup:

JJ should be a stud against ST Louis. probably will hit the 150 yard mark.

 
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I would have no reservations about starting MJD with Sanders out of the lineup for Indy.
I'd actually finished writing that before the Bob Sanders news broke -- so I would change it if I could. He's at the very least not a bad matchup -- MOP can you change MJD's color to regular black if you get the chance?
 
your analysis of Sproles is flawed. You can't use the line 'one well placed block' like that! its football...well placed blocks spring many a rb free to run for a TD...part of the game. :X the bottom line is, SD plays the Jets, not known as a great run-stuffing defense..even if LT plays, he will be limited..Sproles is lightning quick and is versatile, and he should post 100+ total yards and at least 1 TD in a game where the Vegas line is SD -9, and the over is 44pts..that means you'll see a LOT of scoring in this mostly lopsided contest..and that line was put in place, with handicappers knowing full-well that LT might not play..my$$ is on Sproles running THROUGH the NY Jets on his way to a HUGE game as `fantasy player of the week`..
Your right. I guess what I was trying to say was that if he didn't break that run, which could have happened due to the smallest of factors -- would we really be talking about him as the rightful heir to LT's throne still? I would be very surprised if he gets 100 yards against the Jets defense. They're not an elite run D or anything -- but I just can't get over the fact that Sproles hasn't really done too much at all yet. I just think it can go either way, but I'm leaning towards him being a servicable fill-in but not the game-breaking RB everyone is predicting that he'll be.I'm saying he won't get more than 55 rushing yards MAX with no TDs. I could see him getting getting 100 yards total, but I doubt it. If he does do so though, he'll make a believer out of me. And I'll come and make sure you give me my medicine.Oh, and :yes: !
 
Dont' be so quick to waffle on your opinions, JGalligan.

Regarding the Buffalo-Oakland matchup. The Buffalo D is NOT the KC D, and while McFadden's stat line was very impressive, as a Raider fan I was not as impressed as McFadden owners that did not get to watch the game. It looked like he was back at Arkansas, blowing through dually-wide holes... except that now he's in the NFL he can't put it in cruise control when he gets open field in front of him. McFadden has not adjusted to the pro game yet and is ailing too. I think he's lucky to get 60-70 yards rushing this weekend, and maybe 20-30 recieving. I would not be the least bit surprised if he is held to < 100 total and no score.

Bush looked a lot better than I had given him credit for, but still not even a Ron Dayne IMO and I'm going to say that Griffith will be as effective as either of the other two as he's good in pass pro and OOTB. Griffith gives the Raiders more stability & versatility than the other two, but against this Buffalo defense I say it won't matter too much. I'll gladly eat all the crow the DMC lovers want me to if he goes over 100 rushing and a score, but if you want to call me a hater then you have to be willing to eat your crow about Buffalo's defense too.

 
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MJD has to turn it around this week against a below average Indy run D. I see no reason not to start him unless you have better options.

 
Dont' be so quick to waffle on your opinions, JGalligan.Regarding the Buffalo-Oakland matchup. The Buffalo D is NOT the KC D, and while McFadden's stat line was very impressive, as a Raider fan I was not as impressed as McFadden owners that did not get to watch the game. It looked like he was back at Arkansas, blowing through dually-wide holes... except that now he's in the NFL he can't put it in cruise control when he gets open field in front of him. McFadden has not adjusted to the pro game yet and is ailing too. I think he's lucky to get 60-70 yards rushing this weekend, and maybe 20-30 recieving. I would not be the least bit surprised if he is held to < 100 total and no score.Bush looked a lot better than I had given him credit for, but still not even a Ron Dayne IMO and I'm going to say that Griffith will be as effective as either of the other two as he's good in pass pro and OOTB. Griffith gives the Raiders more stability & versatility than the other two, but against this Buffalo defense I say it won't matter too much. I'll gladly eat all the crow the DMC lovers want me to if he goes over 100 rushing and a score, but if you want to call me a hater then you have to be willing to eat your crow about Buffalo's defense too.
The Football Outsiders analysis of McFadden's day was very interesting. Essentially he had 136 yards on 5 carries, and then 30 yards on the other 16 carries. He's a big play type running back so you can kind of understand that. But he also left the team in a lot of bad positions on 2nd and 3rd downs by gaining just 1 or 2 yards on first and second down. The one benefit for him is that the Bills aren't all that good at containing the outside on the run. That's where most of the big plays against the Bills come on the ground. So he may be able to utilize his speed and have some nice gains. Although, if his toe is bothering him, he may have a hard time turning the corner on the outside to get the ball upfield. If his speed is limited due to the toe, I think that McFadden will have a bad day and that the Raiders would probably be better off using Bush more.
 
I'm confused by your discussion of the Oakland rushing D. You say they've given up a grand total of 3 rushing TD's. Is that good for 2 weeks in to the season? I'm also pretty sure Denver could have had 10 rushing TD's if they'd wanted in week 1.

 
StrikeS2k said:
I'm confused by your discussion of the Oakland rushing D. You say they've given up a grand total of 3 rushing TD's. Is that good for 2 weeks in to the season? I'm also pretty sure Denver could have had 10 rushing TD's if they'd wanted in week 1.
The only team thats let up more rushing TDs than the Raiders is the Detroit Lions. Although there are seven other teams who've also let up three rushing TD's. So no, it's not very good and it is based primarily on their week one matchup with the Broncos since the Chiefs didn't really even get a chance to punch it in the end zone with LJ. Still, letting up three rushing TDs in one game isn't very good no matter who the opponent is.
 
I guess my question for the running back gurus this week is if Steven Jackson (I realize the game isn't up yet) is a must start this week? Or is it just your typical "Don't Bench Your Studs" mantra. I know they addressed Addai already and there seems to be some dissension. The other similar first round guy is Jackson.

What do we think?

Me, I have him starting over Thomas Jones. That is predicated by my unwillingness to ever bench Chris Johnson.

 
your analysis of Sproles is flawed. You can't use the line 'one well placed block' like that! its football...well placed blocks

spring many a rb free to run for a TD...part of the game. :goodposting:

the bottom line is, SD plays the Jets, not known as a great run-stuffing defense..even if LT plays, he will be limited..Sproles is lightning quick and is versatile, and he should post 100+ total yards and at least 1 TD in a game where the Vegas line is SD -9, and the over is 44pts..that means you'll see a LOT of scoring in this mostly lopsided contest..

and that line was put in place, with handicappers knowing full-well that LT might not play..

my$$ is on Sproles running THROUGH the NY Jets on his way to a HUGE game as `fantasy player of the week`..
The Jets defense is Night and Day with an actual DT playing in the middle of the 3-4 - completely different defense....

BTW in the same token - What's the deal with Jammal Williams????

What Jenkins is giving the Jets defense just could be missing from the Charger defense... :lmao:

I see a lot of cocky Charger fans all week completely pissing on the Jets and it sounds like they really haven't seen much of the Jets but, are just looking at last years stats and some box scores...

Jets defense is pretty solid.. Jets offense is getting better and will be playing it's 3rd 3-4 defense in a row...

I'll take the points but, I think the Jets have a good shot to grab this one.

Best case scenario, this Jets team was supposed to grow as the season went on and as the 1/3 new starters got acclimated - I see WAY too many people who think they are Sharks that watch Week 1 and week 2 and just throw the Jets (and draw many other conclusions) out the window as useless.... Way too many people do that in Fantasy as well - You need to look at teams on the upswing and downswing, project where they COULD be IF HEALTHY and plan for the future that way.... The Skins are good example, even though they had a good week, I went into this season knowing that if healthy, that offense should be a lot better in the 2nd half over the 1st.

 
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your analysis of Sproles is flawed. You can't use the line 'one well placed block' like that! its football...well placed blocks

spring many a rb free to run for a TD...part of the game. :lol:

the bottom line is, SD plays the Jets, not known as a great run-stuffing defense..even if LT plays, he will be limited..Sproles is lightning quick and is versatile, and he should post 100+ total yards and at least 1 TD in a game where the Vegas line is SD -9, and the over is 44pts..that means you'll see a LOT of scoring in this mostly lopsided contest..

and that line was put in place, with handicappers knowing full-well that LT might not play..

my$$ is on Sproles running THROUGH the NY Jets on his way to a HUGE game as `fantasy player of the week`..
The Jets defense is Night and Day with an actual DT playing in the middle of the 3-4 - completely different defense....

BTW in the same token - What's the deal with Jammal Williams????

What Jenkins is giving the Jets defense just could be missing from the Charger defense... :lmao:

I see a lot of cocky Charger fans all week completely pissing on the Jets and it sounds like they really haven't seen much of the Jets but, are just looking at last years stats and some box scores...

Jets defense is pretty solid.. Jets offense is getting better and will be playing it's 3rd 3-4 defense in a row...

I'll take the points but, I think the Jets have a good shot to grab this one.

Best case scenario, this Jets team was supposed to grow as the season went on and as the 1/3 new starters got acclimated - I see WAY too many people who think they are Sharks that watch Week 1 and week 2 and just throw the Jets (and draw many other conclusions) out the window as useless.... Way too many people do that in Fantasy as well - You need to look at teams on the upswing and downswing, project where they COULD be IF HEALTHY and plan for the future that way.... The Skins are good example, even though they had a good week, I went into this season knowing that if healthy, that offense should be a lot better in the 2nd half over the 1st.
:gang2: on the bolded. Even Bill B made mention of how difficult Jenkins makes it for teams to run against the Jets. He's been a beast, last week with 3 tackles for a loss and a sack. You'd be surprised how much better the Jets D is because of one guy (similar to Sanders, albeit in a different context).
 
Good post on the Jets... one loss doesn't take away the fact that are underrated and poised to send the Chargers to 0-3 w/o a healthy LT2

 
I need to start remembering to put my score predictions at the end of my write ups... but to go on the record for this week:

OAK 16 @ BUF 24

JAX 24 @ IND 20

NYJ 21 @ SD 24

KC 13 @ ATL 27

 
Earnest Graham at Chicago = bad start
Ive been wondering about this myself. The D played well against Addai. They played sorta well against CAR. The main thing is, JStew got 2 rush TD. I can see Graham getting 2 rush td's too. 1 is more likely. But I can see him outscouring say, T.Jones this week if T jones just gets 100 yards and no scores. Plus Graham should outproduce Tjones in Receiving. I think its close to be honest.
 
Earnest Graham at Chicago = bad start
Ive been wondering about this myself. The D played well against Addai. They played sorta well against CAR. The main thing is, JStew got 2 rush TD. I can see Graham getting 2 rush td's too. 1 is more likely. But I can see him outscouring say, T.Jones this week if T jones just gets 100 yards and no scores. Plus Graham should outproduce Tjones in Receiving. I think its close to be honest.
The Bears have given up 14 rushing TDS in the last 24 games at home. Is Tamapa minus Galloway...plus Griese playing QB going to move the ball?
 
I won't call you out on the Dolphins prediction since its a division matchup with an unproven QB and would be very gratifying to Parcells.Having said that, I like Morris for 17/123/2 TD, 6/44/1 TD.Cassel to Moss on a couple bombs.NE 35MIA 10
I think Morris is a strong play this week, I just think things will line up and a major upset is going to occur.
 
Marshawn Lynch

Last week: 19 rushes for 59 yards and one TD

As optimistically promising as the Raiders rushing defense could be, Marshawn Lynch is going to continuously mow through them like a freight train. It’s almost like he’s a Marion Barber, except that he’s aware that he is NOT made of titanium. The odds are in favor for a lot of smash mouth football in this matchup, and they’re also in favor of a big fantasy day for Lynch.
How about Fred Jackson? He has been mixed in with the offense the last two weeks. He led the Bills in receiving last weekend.
 
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Colts rush defense: Hey, is anyone else having déjà-vu? Wait, wait – it’s coming back to me, it’s coming back. I GOT IT! The Colts rushing defense looks like Swiss cheese again, just like the old days! Not to mention that its being reported that Bob Sanders (Mr. Anti-rush himself) could be out 4-6 weeks due to an injury. Add all of that up and what do you get? Reason to once again rejoice when you see the letters IND next to your RBs for that particular week! Woo-hoo! I missed you guys! The Colts were ranked 28th in the league in rushing yards given up – and are a safe bet to move even further down the ladder with Bob Sanders now off the field. Cha-ching!

Maurice Jones-Drew

Last week: 7 rushes for 17 yards and one TD

Well, would you look at that? Apparently the thing that John Madden loved to bring up every seven and a half minutes is turning out to be true! Running backs aren’t so effective without their offensive line! The Jaguars offensive line injury woes have sent shockwaves through the entire offense, turning the formerly immune to interceptions, David Garrard, into… not so immune to interceptions. It’s also turned the firecracker that was Maurice Jones-Drew into a dud -- One of the duds that snaps a little bit, but still a dud none-the-less. A banged up O-Line + An ineffective David Garrard = Bad tidings for MJD’s point totals.

Week three verdict: It’s up in the air. If you had a gun to my head, I wouldn’t predict good things from MJD this week – at least not yet.

Fred Taylor

Last week: 14 rushes for 49 yards

One guy who doesn’t seem too concerned about the whole Jaguar offensive line whine-fest is Fred Taylor, who would probably put up close to 50 yards even if he was the only player on the field for the offense. If the news broke tomorrow that Fred Taylor was a robot made of metal, I’d obviously be a bit shocked – but not very much so. We should start calling him the Terminator!

Week three verdict: Age schmage…
No Bob Sanders will mean very good things for the Jack run game this week. Particularly MJD. He should be a start in nearly every league.
 
Tampa Bay at Chicago

Overview: Both teams have had some success rushing the football. And both teams have also seen some success at stopping the run. The Bucs avg 155 yds a game rushing but I am more impressed with the 6.5 ypc they bring to the table. Earnest Graham may still be a buy low…seriously. The Bears meanwhile have been avg a very workmanlike 4.4 on the ground.

Earnest Graham: He has had fairly good back to back games. I don’t see him having a huge game in terms of yards but I like him to find paydirt once this weekend. I expect a low scoring game.

Warrick Dunn: Again, maybe when we hit bye weeks he might make a decent flex play but he clearly is the COP for Graham, however Dunn will continue to be a borderline top30 RB.

Matt Forte: I advised against Turner on the road last week but I would not be so quick to leave Forte out of your line up this Sunday. Forte ran hard in week 1, last week there just was not much to work with in term of holes and he struggled some. He is a rookie and he will struggle some as the season rolls along. This is going to be a low scoring affair.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 17…Chicago 13

New Orleans at Denver

Overview: The Saints had a letdown on the road last week, now they turn right back around and have to face Denver on the road this week…it just gets better and better. In terms of pure FF, this is going to be one of the great games this week. Colston is OUT so that will put a little more pressure on the Saints passing game.

Reggie Bush: I like at least 100 total yds this week, no reason his speed can’t put him in position to score this week as well. I believe you will see at least 56-65 points on the board between the two teams so I would be inclined to start just about everyone.

Deuce McAllister: Bench him till we see an actual role on the team.

Pierre Thomas: If you play in TD heavy leagues he is worth a look at this point. 50 yds and a TD will not surprise me this week.

Selvin Young: I know Selvin owners are frustrated but I still think they will lean on him at some point. He had a great game last week with limited touches. He might never get 20 carries in a game al year and he obviously does not get goal line touches, but he does have break away speed and even just getting his touches between the 20s is going to generate somewhere between 75-100 yds a week for him…but the lack of TDs makes him a very iffy RB2.

Andre Hall: He doesn’t get the goal line otuches, and he is not starting ahead of Young…how can you start him?

Michael Pittman: Any week where they are going to score a lot of points, he is likely to see some goal line carries. Is Michael Pittman going to score 20 TDs this season? I doubt it but he seems to be on a roll getting some carries around the goal line.

Final Score: Denver 31…New Orleans 30

Detroit at SF

Overview: The Lions cannot run the ball…55 yds a game and a whopping 3.4 ypc…it’s rough for them even though SF gives up 139 a game, they only yield about 3.8 ypc…so I think Detroit will be hard pressed to run the ball again this week, although Julius Jones looke like a Pro Bowler last week against the Niners.

San Fran though is going to have their way but I wouldn’t be so quick to put Frank Gore ranked #1 this week. They still have Martz as the OC, and I am betting they try and throw the ball a lot…plus Martz wants to send a message that he can still put a great game plan together and I expect the Niners to pass more than they should this week. Gore is still a strong play but don’t start penciling him in for 200 yds and 2 TD just yet.

Kevin Smith: I don’t think you have to bench him this week, but now they have Rudi Johnson in the mix and they also have been looking at a lot of RB on the street. I do think the smart money would be to let him sit until we see a few more games with Rudi learning the offense more and more…but mostly I see a guy that will get loks between the 20s but Rudi might get more work when they are in the redzone.

Rudi Johnson: TD heavy league, he might make a good play in the flex.

Frank Gore: Should have a solid game although I don’t see top 5 from him this week, simply because I don’t think Martz will give him enough carries in order to do so…also if the Niners get way up, look for Foster to run the game out, not Gore who they will likely try and keep healthy…they are looking at a 2-1 start, that’s pretty big for SF.

Final Score: San Fran 27…Detroit 20

St Louis at Seattle

Overview: St Louis has been a mess BUT BUT BUT they have been playing Philly and the NY Giants who I think are the #2 and #3 teams in the NFC behind Dallas. The Cowboys have pushed everyone int hat division to step it up. They likely send 3 teams from the NFC East to the playoffs. The Rams still have some issues ahead with some very tough games but IMO, SJax is a great buy low, will continue to be till about week 8, but this week and perhaps next he stand to do much better. The Seahawks do hols teams pretty well on the ground with a 3.8 ypc vs the 3.4 ypc the Rams avg on the ground. I look for that number to move up this week though.

The Seadogs come in 0-2 as wel, the loser of this game will likely see any chance of winning the division, likely the only way a team in the West will make the playoffs, that chance will probably end for one of them come Sunday…0-3 starts are never good. The Seahawks actually are avg 4.6 ypc and the Rams allow 4.9 ypc…I expect a big day for Julius Jones.

SJax: I expect at least 100 total yds for him, look for Jackson to be involved in all areas of the football game, maybe 4-5 catches, they have to try anything in order to win this week.

Julius Jones : I expect a repeat of last week, he should have lots of holes to trot thru…I use the term trot. JJ is a decent RB but he isn’t in the class of what we typically expect for a top20 RB, but he will pay dividends this weekend for most of his owners.

Final Score: Seattle 24…St Louis 21

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

Overview: The Steelers come in avg 150(4.3 ypc) yds a game on the ground and Philly gives up 52.0(2.7 ypc) yds a game on the ground…something has to give. I believe Pittsburgh beat up a couple of so so teams and they wil be exposed this weekend in Philly, the only problem is that the Eagles had a heavyweight fight on MNF and came up just short, could be a let down from them on Sunday.

Philly does not run in the traditional way but they only are able to muster 3.4 ypc and the Steelers only allow 2.8 ypc…The Eagles are going to have to rely on McNabb to make it happen this week.

FWP: Going to struggle this week. I don’t expect big numbers form him.

Mendenhall: Because FWP will struggle he might see more COP carries in this game, but I still would not start him for any reason right now.

Brian Westbrook: Obviously you start him and he will do OK, but not likely to explode this week with 3 TD like he did against Dallas.

Final Score: Philly 19…Pittsburgh 16

Cleveland at Baltimore

Overview: Tough game to really gauge as we have one team that played 1 game, against the Bengals, and the has had 2 weeks off. The other team has struggled big time early on in the season. One thing I do know is that the Ravens defense will play blood and guts on defense as in their mind, they are 1-0 and the team to challenge the Steelers right now.

Jamal Lewis: Likely to struggle but the hope is that he is more healthy this week and can find a little room to run…what happened to Smith and Steinback here?

Ray Rice: Seems like he will see plenty of action this week.

LeMac: He was used because Rice struggled in week 1, I don’t see that happening as much this week. I wouldn’t over think it too much. If you picked him up in best ball formats, props out to you.

Willis McGahee: Bench him till we see that he is 100% healthy and that Cam Cameron starts talking about the offense funneling thru him more.

Final Score: Cleveland 20…Baltimore 17

Dallas at Green Bay

Overview: Should just be a fun game to watch. Who cares what the stats are here, if you own MB III, or Ryan Grant, you are going to play these guys. This is a big game and should a be a ton of fun to watch…go out and enjoy the family today because this is the big game of the day and it will be showcased on SNF tonight.

MB III : Start him with confidence

Felix Jones: Do not start him with confidence

Ryan Grant: Seems like he is ready to go, did practice on Friday, I expect him to play.

Brandon Jackson: Only if Grant is a late scratch for some reason.

Final Score: Dallas 34…Green Bay 24

Sorry for the late release guys. Please feel free to post any questions you have about your roster spots today in relation to RBs or RBs in flex positions vs a WR. Thanks for your understanding.

 
I was going to start Hightower over Grant this week (TD heavy league) but with Grant looking like he's going to play, not sure which way to go.

 
Ugh, I've got to choose between LT/Rice/Edge as my 2nd RB and I don't have Sproles as a handcuff. What the heck do I do here? I'm about a 7-point dog according to Lineup Dominator, so I'm leaning towards rolling the dice with LT and dropping Kenny Watson for Hester to avoid a complete zero just in case LT is inactive on Monday.

 

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