Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
We have more than a couple teams with bye weeks including Indy, Seattle, Miami, NY Giants, Detroit, and New England...that's a lot of bye weeks to cover. I want to emphasize that even though there are a lot of bye weeks, that doens't automatically make borderline starters great plays. In fact if you play in leagues with flex positions, I might be looking at some borderline WR over some of the backs.
Let's just jump into the games and go from there. I want to encourage you to post in here, please use your teams as simply examples, please stay away from WDIS posts. No problem with you going over your team and telling us through analysis or reason why you are leaning one way or another, then we can post back with opinions that all can enjoy...Got IT?! Good!!!
Also I wanted to point out that I did not post the point spreads, I didn't want that to have an influence one way or the other, so I haven't even looked at them, I likely will later in the week, and then see if that sways me in either direction.
Denver at Kansas City
Overview: Is Denver as good as that 3-0 record? If you are what your record says you are, then is Denver really an undefeated football team? I like watching them play, and they seem like they are headed for FF heaven where they have a defense that allows a lot of points, and they have an offense built to put a lot of points up on the board as need be. After 2 extremely tight games where they defeated San Diego mostly due to a blown whistle by Herculoculi, and some bad game management by Sean Payton, and now they take to the road to face the dreadful 0-3 Chiefs.
Kansas City has been a mess. They have started 3 different QBs in 3 weeks, the latest is a very not ready for the NFL Tyler Thigpen. Larry Johnson was able to find room to run with about 120 and a TD last week, however with the inept QB play what can we as FF owners really expect week in and week out. The Chiefs do not seem to be able to stop a whole lot as Turner scored 3 times on them as well as racking up over 100 yards on the ground. There is no logical reason that the Chiefs should be in this football game…but yet I know from all of those “can’t miss”, “stone cold locks”, “take it to the bank”…somehow, someway, the Chiefs will hang around and this game willb e a lot closer than it should be. I have no statistical information to base this on other than that ole gut I sometimes revert to.
Pittman, Hall, and Young:…which one is crazy horse? What a mess I tell you. Pittman simply gets to plunge the ball in when they get near the end zone, although I did see where Young carries the ball inside the 10 yard line but that didn’t work out so well on back to back carries. Hall is completely useless to me as he is there to give Young a lot of breathers, and Pittman is OK in TD heavy leagues I guess but otherwise you will never start him.
Larry Johnson: He delivered last week, although he missed out on a 2nd TD that sure would have made owners that gutted him out very happy. I benched him unfortunately last week which brings up an old rule that some adhere to and others ignore, and that is not to bench potential studs. I still think LJ has the goods, but he plays in such an abysmal offense that it will be hit or miss most weekends. Sproles rang up a ton of yds, and Bush looked pretty good too last week. LJ will need some help form his OL but the potential for a good strong game is there again this week.
Final Score: Denver 23…Kansas City 17
Atlanta at Carolina
Overview: Atlanta comes marching into Carolina with a 2-1 record, and what looks to be a lot of confidence in what I observed from the HC after the game(I never seen him before), and also some very mature words from Matt Ryan. The offense has done a good job against very bad teams in Detroit and KC…I’m not taking anything away from Atlanta, Ryan has performed very well along with the running game when they are at home…I felt pretty strong they would lay an egg in Tampa and they did. Now they square off against Carolina and I just think they will repeat what they did against Tampa Bay. They might play a little better but I expect Carolina to blow them out even though they do not play that well at home.
The Panthers finally get past the 1st 3 weeks of the season…considering they did not have Steve Smith for 2 of them and to come out 2-1, they still have to feel pretty good. Like so many other teams, the Carolina Panthers did not find success running the football on the Vikings, though Stewart was able to punch it in from short. I think Carolina has a lot of things working against them right now in order for FF owners to have a successful outcome with DWill and JStew…1st off there two of them so it’s a shared load right now no matter how you slice it. Stewart seems built to take most of the goal line work, it just is a very underwhelming spot for redraft leagues right now.
Michael Turner: “Sell High”, has 4 of his next 5 games on the road where he does not play as well IMO. Also the level of teams is improving as he will be on the road in Carolina, then @GB, CHI, Bye week…he might not have another big game for quite awhile and you can cash in this lottery ticket on something else that might be more stable. I would at least send out some feelers with Turner. What will he do this week? He has had 2 top3-5 performances already, I don’t see that happening this Sunday, he will likely do better than he did against TB, but I would not expect anything close to top5 this week. Maybe top20 if you’re lucky.
JStew: The 3+ TDs he has scored makes him the better play early on in the season. But he shares the load with DWill and whoever has the hot hand is going to see more action. That’s fine but if Stew is getting the goal line work which it seems he is, then I think you have to start him ahead of DWill if you own both. In PPR leagues I might like DeAngelo a shade better.
DWill: I can make a case for 100 total yards but he doesn’t get the goal line work…what does 10 points get you in your league?
Final Score: Carolina 24…Atlanta 7
Arizona at NY Jets
Overview: I understand the frustration that Arizona fans are feeling but all I can say is that it is hard to travel across country and take care of business, even if it appears that you are the better team on paper. The Cardinals came out flat, still had a chance to win the game or at least tie it up which they did when they made it 17-17 but they gave the lead back to the Skins and thus lost the football game. Edge racked up some yards but did not score, and Hightower did neither score nor rack up a lot of yards. Edge has really become useless as of late for most owners. He does rack up some yds but he isn’t scoring and that doesn’t seem to change as we move along thru the season.
Edge: The Jets are not great against the run. Add in some bye weeks and I understand why people are going to look at Edge this week. I have to say though in the back of my mind I only see him racking up 100 yds most weeks and I don’t see him hitting paydirt much. Again, if 20/80-100 if going to help you then Edge might be your guy. He has finished 22, 43, and 27th the past 3 weeks so maybe he is due, or maybe he just isn’t a good play very often.
Tim Hightower: IN TD heavy leagues he is an option at this point. Does not seem to be a threat for a lot of carries though.
Thomas Jones: Decent week 1 but its been pretty much downhill since then for both him and the Jets. With teams having bye week issues, it’s difficult to just toss starting RBs away and relegate them to your bench. I don’t envision top10 numbers this week simply because the Jets are not playing well on offense. He does have the Cardinals with the 2nd game of back to back cross country road trips for the Arizona so there could be a fatigue factor of sorts here.
Final Score: Arizona 20…NY Jets 17
Houston at Jacksonville
Overview: The Texans have come out and played some of the most uninspired football I have seen in awhile. Pitt and Tennessee have looked like Super Bowl teams against the Texans, and I feel strongly that Matt Schaub looks like he is taking steps backwards, not forwards. Kubiak is under an immense amount of pressure, but this is just not working. I understand the people of Houston and Galveston have been seriously impacted by Hurrican IKE, and I’m not trying to pile on, I truly feel for the fans there, and maybe the players are not themselves right now…but the fact is they are not playing well.
Jacksonville reached up and bit the Colts last week on the road. The Colts were without Bob Sanders but the Jags really tore them up on the ground throughout the day. The Jags have a lot of problems on their OL, but the Texans are pretty soft against the run. One would think MJD is another good play this week, we’ll see below.
Steve Slaton: He did have a nice long run in the beginning of the game that helped him set up the rest of his day…finished with over 110 rushing, 4 receptions for not much yardage but a big TD to top it all off with. Slaton is likely the starter from here on out…but I don’t see him as the long term solution…meaning If you got this guy for a 2nd or 3rd in dynasty, unload him quickly…shelf life might not be too long on this guy. Addai had a decent game against the Jags depending on your POV, but I would think Slaton at best would have an avg day this week.
MJD: Did well last week, was involved in the passing game, and one would expect the Jags to play all out for awhile as they try and scratch their way into the playoff chase. You never really know what to predict with MJD, but the match up certainly favors him.
Fred Taylor: If 20/100 yards will propel you to a win then you need to start Fred Taylor…he is almost no threat week in and week out to crack the top20. He catches the ball very little, and he doesn’t get the goal line work. Where is the upside?
Final Score: Jacksonville 17…Houston 14
Minnesota at Tennessee
Overview: Two teams that are just nasty on rush defense square off this weekend. The Vikings are pretty stout with a 3.7 ypc and only 89 yds a game on the ground that they give up. They have played GB, Indy, and Carolina, not exactly the cream puffs of the NFL, so they are doing it against good competition. And I would say that the Titans are yet another good rushing team that they will be asked to shut down this week on the road. I think the Titans are primed for their first loss this season and the Vikes right now are in a must win just about every week for awhile until they get back into the playoff hunt.
Tenneessee will try and come out to establish the run but I can’t imagine Fisher is so naïve as to build the whole game plan around rushing the football. What they can do though is develop the short passing game and I think that will make Chris Johnson a better play than Len Dale White…if you remember last week I talked about White and his ability to punch in a short one…well he did it twice and ended up with better stats…that is going to happen from time to time.
Adrian Peterson: Nothing spectacular last week but he ran hard nonetheless. He isn’t cracking the top 5 every week, but he is putting up nice steady numbers and anyone that picked almost any of the other preseason top5 backs would give their eyeteeth to have had ADP right about now. He is one of those backs you just simply never would bench.
Chester Taylor: Has done almost nothing this year, no reason to take him off the bench right now.
Chris Johnson: I don’t think he will have a great day rushing but I see him involved in the short passing game and I believe his stats might look something like this…15/45, 4/50, TD? That is what I would hope for with him this coming weekend.
Len Dale White: Was a nice little sneaky play last week, this week I don’t see him with more than about 15/40 on the ground…which makes him an avoid.
Final Score: Minnesota 16…Tennessee 10
San Fran at New Orleans
Overview: The Niners come into this one with a lot of confidence. JT O’Sullivan is getting it done and Frank Gore is really producing at a high level for his team. I have a lot of questions about the OL which is allowing a lot of sacks, but you have to go with what you are seeing, and seeing is believing. The Niners have been avg 128 yds a game on the ground…figure Gore has about 80-100 of those each week plus his catches. He is in rhythm right now with about 100 yds, a score, and about 4-5 catches a week…he is almost the best RB in FF to have right now.
The Saints are just heartbreakers. They let the Skins and the Broncos take games form them at the end. And with Colston and Shockey on the shelf for awhile, what impact is that going to have on a running game that isn’t all that dominant to begin with. The Saints are avg 3.4 ypc and the Niners are giving up almost 131 yds a game on the ground. I think teams are running the ball a lot on SF to limit their offense being on the field. Problem is the Saints are not a running football team.
Frank Gore: No reason to bench this guy ever
Reggie Bush: Should be primed for about 15 catches this weekend…no Colston, no Shockey, all BUSH!!!
Pierre Thomas: Scored twice last week after I blurbed “50/TD wouldn’t surprise me”. I see him getting carries on Sunday but I think this will likely be the Reggie Bush show.
Final Score: San Fran 31…New Orleans 23
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Overview: The Browns suck…The Bengals suck…both teams are 0-3…this game sucks.
Jamal Lewis: Clearly the Browns need to respond, and if they don’t look better against the Bengals, then it isn’t gonna happen for the rest of the year. They seriously should be able with that OL to come out and open a can of woopass on the Bengals defense.
Chris Perry: Another guy that should do well this weekend. He did surprise against the G-Men on Sunday. Some sites are calling for top10 from him, I expect top20, not so sure about top10. Perry is one of the riskier backs to wheel out each week, he is no lock for anything really. They need to get him more involved in the passing game which I thought was one of his strengths.
Final Score: Cincinnati 24…Cleveland 21
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Overview: Battle of 2-1 teams, battle of the Bays, battle of two surprise backs from a year ago. The Packers are avg 115(4.4) yds a game, and the Bucs are yielding about 121 yds a game on defense. I know stats are boring but it always points us in the right direction of what we can expect(like it’s foolproof, right). The Bucs come in after a terrificly horrible performance in a lot of ways against the Bears. They could not run the ball at all and Griese ended up throwing the ball about 100 times last week.
Ryan Grant: The Bucs are tough at home, they stopped Michael Turner in week 2, and I expect them to have Grant bottled up a lot on Sunday. Because of the bye weeks, Ic an see Grant making the top20 but I don’t see him running wild this week.
Earnest Graham: I think at one point last week he had 7 carries for negative yards…he had a bad game but he also has had 10/90 plus 3/27 in week 1, and then 2 weeks ago he had 15/116/TD, so I really think he is a “buy low” candidate, might not be cheaper this season. His upcoming schedule is @Den, CAR, SEA, @Dal, and @KC…I like a lot of those match ups with really only Dallas being the team he will struggle with. Don’t let one bad game turn your stomach on this guy.
Warrick Dunn: Bye weeks, flex spots in Dyansty, I can see him having a decent game but he really is noting to take to the bank right now. If Graham continues to struggle though, we might see Dunn with a few more touches.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 20…Green Bay 17
Buffalo at St Louis
Overview: The Bills are 3-0, the Rams are 0-3…the Bills have had a blowout, a game where they hung on in Jax, and a game where they were down by 10 late and managed to pull it out. They are being tested in all sorts of ways, and they are responding like a winner, they are doing things that winners do…why am I talking about this? Because the Bills have stunk for a long time and even though I bleed Orange and Turquoise, you have to appreciate the job that **** Jauron is doing there, and they might not even be a dark horse to wint he division now. They have a great formula, and they are playing together…I don’t see them finishing worse than about 10-6 and possibly that is enough to take the division.
The Rams…what a complete mess, Linehan should be fired immediately…benching Bulger for Trent Green is just silly. And it shows desperation.
Marshawn Lynch: I expect top5 numbers this week, really. The bills are only avg 3.5 ypc as a team on offense, but I expect Lynch to get loose this week for some big gains inside on the carpet. Possibly scoring twice too.
Steven Jackson: He did rack up about 120 yds last week and he also has about 5 catches a game…you cannot think about benching him, Buffalo is good but they are going to see a lot SJax this week and I expect him to produce top10 numbers this week.
Final Score: Buffalo 33…St Louis 19
San Diego at Oakland
Overview: Let’s look at this without an Al Davis angle to it, shall we? The Bolts and that terrific OL are only avg about 3.7 yds a clip right now. Oakland actually is decent against the run and is giving up 3.8 ypc…and this is against guys like Larry Johnson, Marshawn lynch, not exactly chumps. I know San Diego fans are going to get on me about this but the stats favor the Raiders.
San Diego is giving up 5.0 ypc on the ground and 109 yds a game. Oakland comes in avg about 180 yds a game on the ground and over 5 yds a carry. When you can stop the run, and also run the ball well yourself, good things happen and I smell an upset here and Kiffin possibly holding his job for another week is the NFL production of “Desperate HouseCEOs.”
LT: He was hurt last week but he still showed why he is LT with 80+ total yds and 2 TDs, doubt owners could be upset with those numbers despite the fact he had a low ypc in the game.
Darren Sproles: Did have 70+ yds last week in a rout of the Jets on MNF…short week and they have to travel, I don’t see big things for Sproles this week.
Darren McFadden: I can see him having 100 total yds, he is the new weapon brought in for games like this. I think they will find all sorts of ways to get him involved in the offense, definite candidate for top20, maybe top10 this week.
Michael Bush: RB2 role this week as Fargas is still kinds gimpy. He looks good on the field but he is no threat to catch the ball right now, 50 yds is about all you can expect.
Final Score: Oakland 23…San Diego 20
Washington at Dallas
Overview: The Skins have managed to get thins turned around with home wins against NO and AZ…this was huge after they came out and lost badly to the NY Giants in week 1, people were calling for Jim Zorn’s head…amazing how winning cures all those problems. Are the Skins really that good? No, but they have shown some serious signs of life in that passing game. This has helped take some of the pressure off the running game and now the Skins are racking up 123 yds a game on the ground, portis is scoring TDs, they look pretty good and they are going to need a lot of points to keep up with Dallas. Jason Taylor is out so that will hurt their pass rush, and I think they need a minimum of 30-35 points to compete on Sunday, not sure they can actually do that.
Clinton Portis: Always a threat for 100 yds and a TD, he is looking good, and he is simply producing right now. Out of the 7 times he has faced Dallas, he has only scored a TD in 2 of those games, one of them he scored twice. Dallas has contained him pretty good but now Campbell and the passing game is coming around, but Dallas has Adam Jones roaming around in the secondary now, he is making his presence felt on this team. Start Portis though, he should be able to rack up at least 75-100 yds in this game, just hope the Skins can keep it close.
MB III : Must start every week, no reason to look at stats, I love the Barbarian.
Felix Jones: If you have bye week issues then he becomes a real possibility. He is only going to touch the ball about 8-10 times, so you have to hope he rips one off from pretty far out. If the game is lopsided he will see more action.
Final Score: Dallas 38…Washington 24
Philadelphia at Chicago
Overview: The Eagles…what can I say? I have been on their tip for weeks, told everyone how nasty their defense is, and finally they showed on Sunday what I have been talking about. Westbrook is likely OUT this week so let’s operate under that assumption, then if Westy can play, we’ll change things towards the end of the week. Buckhalter and Booker might be available on your WW so check it out.
The Bears are only giving up 71 yds and 3.4 ypc on the ground. It’s criminal the way they have lost the last 2 weeks…clearly the defense is on all cylinders right now. I do not expect Philly with a banged up OL to come marching into Chicago and push the bears around all over the field…I do not envision that happening.
Correll Buckhalter: I see where he is being talked about as top10 this week…forget it. This game will come down to McNabb and the short passing game. I see DeSean, LJ Smith/TE, and maybe the backs OOTB…so if you like Buck to catch about 5-7 balls this weekend then plug him in, but I don’t see top10 numbers from him this week.
Lorenzo Booker: Hasn’t done a lot so far and wasn’t asked to do much last week when Westy left. I would not be starting him right now.
Matt Forte: Philly is allowing an unreal 45 yds a game on the ground and 2.4 ypc…unless their DTs are OUT for this game, no reason to think they would be, but I just don’t see Forte or the bears scoring a lot of points, and I don’t see them moving the football. Teams are finding out quickly that the Eagles defense is not playing around…they know they have an offense and a QB that can manufacture 14-20 points easily every week. They now have a defense that can win games by themselves. They destroyed the Pittsburgh OL last week to the tune of 9 sacks!!! Forte will be miserable this week and I expect him to be bottled up most of the day. AVOID IF POSSIBLE!!!
Final Score: Philly 18…Chicago 12
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Overview: The Ravens are 2-0? Not many people expected this. I think their first loss of the season will come this week…I feel pretty safe in saying that their 2-0 start is an illusion, but we’ll see how it plays out. The Steelers OL showed its true colors this past week. Parker is OUT for the Steelers and Big Ben is not exactly healthy either…the more I think about it, maybe Baltimore can get to 3-0.
Willis McGahee: That sneaky OC, Cam Cameron, said McGahee would see an increasing role but that they were going with LeMac and Rice…what a mess this past week. I guess if you have McGahee you can think about a spot start this week. The Steelers are only giving up 2.8 ypc right now so he I doubt any of the Ravens are strong plays this week. Might be outside of the top20.
LeMac: Will see a decrease IMO as the weeks roll on.
Ray Rice: Disappointing to not see him get more touches this past week…is he the RB3 now?
Rashard Mendenhall: Gonna learn a lot about this kid on MNF. The Ravens are pretty stout aginast the run, only giving up 71 yds a game. Not sure Mendy is a great start but if you own him, I doubt I can talk you out of playing him.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 9…Baltimore 6
Good Luck this weekend!!!
Let's just jump into the games and go from there. I want to encourage you to post in here, please use your teams as simply examples, please stay away from WDIS posts. No problem with you going over your team and telling us through analysis or reason why you are leaning one way or another, then we can post back with opinions that all can enjoy...Got IT?! Good!!!
Also I wanted to point out that I did not post the point spreads, I didn't want that to have an influence one way or the other, so I haven't even looked at them, I likely will later in the week, and then see if that sways me in either direction.
Denver at Kansas City
Overview: Is Denver as good as that 3-0 record? If you are what your record says you are, then is Denver really an undefeated football team? I like watching them play, and they seem like they are headed for FF heaven where they have a defense that allows a lot of points, and they have an offense built to put a lot of points up on the board as need be. After 2 extremely tight games where they defeated San Diego mostly due to a blown whistle by Herculoculi, and some bad game management by Sean Payton, and now they take to the road to face the dreadful 0-3 Chiefs.
Kansas City has been a mess. They have started 3 different QBs in 3 weeks, the latest is a very not ready for the NFL Tyler Thigpen. Larry Johnson was able to find room to run with about 120 and a TD last week, however with the inept QB play what can we as FF owners really expect week in and week out. The Chiefs do not seem to be able to stop a whole lot as Turner scored 3 times on them as well as racking up over 100 yards on the ground. There is no logical reason that the Chiefs should be in this football game…but yet I know from all of those “can’t miss”, “stone cold locks”, “take it to the bank”…somehow, someway, the Chiefs will hang around and this game willb e a lot closer than it should be. I have no statistical information to base this on other than that ole gut I sometimes revert to.
Pittman, Hall, and Young:…which one is crazy horse? What a mess I tell you. Pittman simply gets to plunge the ball in when they get near the end zone, although I did see where Young carries the ball inside the 10 yard line but that didn’t work out so well on back to back carries. Hall is completely useless to me as he is there to give Young a lot of breathers, and Pittman is OK in TD heavy leagues I guess but otherwise you will never start him.
Larry Johnson: He delivered last week, although he missed out on a 2nd TD that sure would have made owners that gutted him out very happy. I benched him unfortunately last week which brings up an old rule that some adhere to and others ignore, and that is not to bench potential studs. I still think LJ has the goods, but he plays in such an abysmal offense that it will be hit or miss most weekends. Sproles rang up a ton of yds, and Bush looked pretty good too last week. LJ will need some help form his OL but the potential for a good strong game is there again this week.
Final Score: Denver 23…Kansas City 17
Atlanta at Carolina
Overview: Atlanta comes marching into Carolina with a 2-1 record, and what looks to be a lot of confidence in what I observed from the HC after the game(I never seen him before), and also some very mature words from Matt Ryan. The offense has done a good job against very bad teams in Detroit and KC…I’m not taking anything away from Atlanta, Ryan has performed very well along with the running game when they are at home…I felt pretty strong they would lay an egg in Tampa and they did. Now they square off against Carolina and I just think they will repeat what they did against Tampa Bay. They might play a little better but I expect Carolina to blow them out even though they do not play that well at home.
The Panthers finally get past the 1st 3 weeks of the season…considering they did not have Steve Smith for 2 of them and to come out 2-1, they still have to feel pretty good. Like so many other teams, the Carolina Panthers did not find success running the football on the Vikings, though Stewart was able to punch it in from short. I think Carolina has a lot of things working against them right now in order for FF owners to have a successful outcome with DWill and JStew…1st off there two of them so it’s a shared load right now no matter how you slice it. Stewart seems built to take most of the goal line work, it just is a very underwhelming spot for redraft leagues right now.
Michael Turner: “Sell High”, has 4 of his next 5 games on the road where he does not play as well IMO. Also the level of teams is improving as he will be on the road in Carolina, then @GB, CHI, Bye week…he might not have another big game for quite awhile and you can cash in this lottery ticket on something else that might be more stable. I would at least send out some feelers with Turner. What will he do this week? He has had 2 top3-5 performances already, I don’t see that happening this Sunday, he will likely do better than he did against TB, but I would not expect anything close to top5 this week. Maybe top20 if you’re lucky.
JStew: The 3+ TDs he has scored makes him the better play early on in the season. But he shares the load with DWill and whoever has the hot hand is going to see more action. That’s fine but if Stew is getting the goal line work which it seems he is, then I think you have to start him ahead of DWill if you own both. In PPR leagues I might like DeAngelo a shade better.
DWill: I can make a case for 100 total yards but he doesn’t get the goal line work…what does 10 points get you in your league?
Final Score: Carolina 24…Atlanta 7
Arizona at NY Jets
Overview: I understand the frustration that Arizona fans are feeling but all I can say is that it is hard to travel across country and take care of business, even if it appears that you are the better team on paper. The Cardinals came out flat, still had a chance to win the game or at least tie it up which they did when they made it 17-17 but they gave the lead back to the Skins and thus lost the football game. Edge racked up some yards but did not score, and Hightower did neither score nor rack up a lot of yards. Edge has really become useless as of late for most owners. He does rack up some yds but he isn’t scoring and that doesn’t seem to change as we move along thru the season.
Edge: The Jets are not great against the run. Add in some bye weeks and I understand why people are going to look at Edge this week. I have to say though in the back of my mind I only see him racking up 100 yds most weeks and I don’t see him hitting paydirt much. Again, if 20/80-100 if going to help you then Edge might be your guy. He has finished 22, 43, and 27th the past 3 weeks so maybe he is due, or maybe he just isn’t a good play very often.
Tim Hightower: IN TD heavy leagues he is an option at this point. Does not seem to be a threat for a lot of carries though.
Thomas Jones: Decent week 1 but its been pretty much downhill since then for both him and the Jets. With teams having bye week issues, it’s difficult to just toss starting RBs away and relegate them to your bench. I don’t envision top10 numbers this week simply because the Jets are not playing well on offense. He does have the Cardinals with the 2nd game of back to back cross country road trips for the Arizona so there could be a fatigue factor of sorts here.
Final Score: Arizona 20…NY Jets 17
Houston at Jacksonville
Overview: The Texans have come out and played some of the most uninspired football I have seen in awhile. Pitt and Tennessee have looked like Super Bowl teams against the Texans, and I feel strongly that Matt Schaub looks like he is taking steps backwards, not forwards. Kubiak is under an immense amount of pressure, but this is just not working. I understand the people of Houston and Galveston have been seriously impacted by Hurrican IKE, and I’m not trying to pile on, I truly feel for the fans there, and maybe the players are not themselves right now…but the fact is they are not playing well.
Jacksonville reached up and bit the Colts last week on the road. The Colts were without Bob Sanders but the Jags really tore them up on the ground throughout the day. The Jags have a lot of problems on their OL, but the Texans are pretty soft against the run. One would think MJD is another good play this week, we’ll see below.
Steve Slaton: He did have a nice long run in the beginning of the game that helped him set up the rest of his day…finished with over 110 rushing, 4 receptions for not much yardage but a big TD to top it all off with. Slaton is likely the starter from here on out…but I don’t see him as the long term solution…meaning If you got this guy for a 2nd or 3rd in dynasty, unload him quickly…shelf life might not be too long on this guy. Addai had a decent game against the Jags depending on your POV, but I would think Slaton at best would have an avg day this week.
MJD: Did well last week, was involved in the passing game, and one would expect the Jags to play all out for awhile as they try and scratch their way into the playoff chase. You never really know what to predict with MJD, but the match up certainly favors him.
Fred Taylor: If 20/100 yards will propel you to a win then you need to start Fred Taylor…he is almost no threat week in and week out to crack the top20. He catches the ball very little, and he doesn’t get the goal line work. Where is the upside?
Final Score: Jacksonville 17…Houston 14
Minnesota at Tennessee
Overview: Two teams that are just nasty on rush defense square off this weekend. The Vikings are pretty stout with a 3.7 ypc and only 89 yds a game on the ground that they give up. They have played GB, Indy, and Carolina, not exactly the cream puffs of the NFL, so they are doing it against good competition. And I would say that the Titans are yet another good rushing team that they will be asked to shut down this week on the road. I think the Titans are primed for their first loss this season and the Vikes right now are in a must win just about every week for awhile until they get back into the playoff hunt.
Tenneessee will try and come out to establish the run but I can’t imagine Fisher is so naïve as to build the whole game plan around rushing the football. What they can do though is develop the short passing game and I think that will make Chris Johnson a better play than Len Dale White…if you remember last week I talked about White and his ability to punch in a short one…well he did it twice and ended up with better stats…that is going to happen from time to time.
Adrian Peterson: Nothing spectacular last week but he ran hard nonetheless. He isn’t cracking the top 5 every week, but he is putting up nice steady numbers and anyone that picked almost any of the other preseason top5 backs would give their eyeteeth to have had ADP right about now. He is one of those backs you just simply never would bench.
Chester Taylor: Has done almost nothing this year, no reason to take him off the bench right now.
Chris Johnson: I don’t think he will have a great day rushing but I see him involved in the short passing game and I believe his stats might look something like this…15/45, 4/50, TD? That is what I would hope for with him this coming weekend.
Len Dale White: Was a nice little sneaky play last week, this week I don’t see him with more than about 15/40 on the ground…which makes him an avoid.
Final Score: Minnesota 16…Tennessee 10
San Fran at New Orleans
Overview: The Niners come into this one with a lot of confidence. JT O’Sullivan is getting it done and Frank Gore is really producing at a high level for his team. I have a lot of questions about the OL which is allowing a lot of sacks, but you have to go with what you are seeing, and seeing is believing. The Niners have been avg 128 yds a game on the ground…figure Gore has about 80-100 of those each week plus his catches. He is in rhythm right now with about 100 yds, a score, and about 4-5 catches a week…he is almost the best RB in FF to have right now.
The Saints are just heartbreakers. They let the Skins and the Broncos take games form them at the end. And with Colston and Shockey on the shelf for awhile, what impact is that going to have on a running game that isn’t all that dominant to begin with. The Saints are avg 3.4 ypc and the Niners are giving up almost 131 yds a game on the ground. I think teams are running the ball a lot on SF to limit their offense being on the field. Problem is the Saints are not a running football team.
Frank Gore: No reason to bench this guy ever
Reggie Bush: Should be primed for about 15 catches this weekend…no Colston, no Shockey, all BUSH!!!
Pierre Thomas: Scored twice last week after I blurbed “50/TD wouldn’t surprise me”. I see him getting carries on Sunday but I think this will likely be the Reggie Bush show.
Final Score: San Fran 31…New Orleans 23
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Overview: The Browns suck…The Bengals suck…both teams are 0-3…this game sucks.
Jamal Lewis: Clearly the Browns need to respond, and if they don’t look better against the Bengals, then it isn’t gonna happen for the rest of the year. They seriously should be able with that OL to come out and open a can of woopass on the Bengals defense.
Chris Perry: Another guy that should do well this weekend. He did surprise against the G-Men on Sunday. Some sites are calling for top10 from him, I expect top20, not so sure about top10. Perry is one of the riskier backs to wheel out each week, he is no lock for anything really. They need to get him more involved in the passing game which I thought was one of his strengths.
Final Score: Cincinnati 24…Cleveland 21
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Overview: Battle of 2-1 teams, battle of the Bays, battle of two surprise backs from a year ago. The Packers are avg 115(4.4) yds a game, and the Bucs are yielding about 121 yds a game on defense. I know stats are boring but it always points us in the right direction of what we can expect(like it’s foolproof, right). The Bucs come in after a terrificly horrible performance in a lot of ways against the Bears. They could not run the ball at all and Griese ended up throwing the ball about 100 times last week.
Ryan Grant: The Bucs are tough at home, they stopped Michael Turner in week 2, and I expect them to have Grant bottled up a lot on Sunday. Because of the bye weeks, Ic an see Grant making the top20 but I don’t see him running wild this week.
Earnest Graham: I think at one point last week he had 7 carries for negative yards…he had a bad game but he also has had 10/90 plus 3/27 in week 1, and then 2 weeks ago he had 15/116/TD, so I really think he is a “buy low” candidate, might not be cheaper this season. His upcoming schedule is @Den, CAR, SEA, @Dal, and @KC…I like a lot of those match ups with really only Dallas being the team he will struggle with. Don’t let one bad game turn your stomach on this guy.
Warrick Dunn: Bye weeks, flex spots in Dyansty, I can see him having a decent game but he really is noting to take to the bank right now. If Graham continues to struggle though, we might see Dunn with a few more touches.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 20…Green Bay 17
Buffalo at St Louis
Overview: The Bills are 3-0, the Rams are 0-3…the Bills have had a blowout, a game where they hung on in Jax, and a game where they were down by 10 late and managed to pull it out. They are being tested in all sorts of ways, and they are responding like a winner, they are doing things that winners do…why am I talking about this? Because the Bills have stunk for a long time and even though I bleed Orange and Turquoise, you have to appreciate the job that **** Jauron is doing there, and they might not even be a dark horse to wint he division now. They have a great formula, and they are playing together…I don’t see them finishing worse than about 10-6 and possibly that is enough to take the division.
The Rams…what a complete mess, Linehan should be fired immediately…benching Bulger for Trent Green is just silly. And it shows desperation.
Marshawn Lynch: I expect top5 numbers this week, really. The bills are only avg 3.5 ypc as a team on offense, but I expect Lynch to get loose this week for some big gains inside on the carpet. Possibly scoring twice too.
Steven Jackson: He did rack up about 120 yds last week and he also has about 5 catches a game…you cannot think about benching him, Buffalo is good but they are going to see a lot SJax this week and I expect him to produce top10 numbers this week.
Final Score: Buffalo 33…St Louis 19
San Diego at Oakland
Overview: Let’s look at this without an Al Davis angle to it, shall we? The Bolts and that terrific OL are only avg about 3.7 yds a clip right now. Oakland actually is decent against the run and is giving up 3.8 ypc…and this is against guys like Larry Johnson, Marshawn lynch, not exactly chumps. I know San Diego fans are going to get on me about this but the stats favor the Raiders.
San Diego is giving up 5.0 ypc on the ground and 109 yds a game. Oakland comes in avg about 180 yds a game on the ground and over 5 yds a carry. When you can stop the run, and also run the ball well yourself, good things happen and I smell an upset here and Kiffin possibly holding his job for another week is the NFL production of “Desperate HouseCEOs.”
LT: He was hurt last week but he still showed why he is LT with 80+ total yds and 2 TDs, doubt owners could be upset with those numbers despite the fact he had a low ypc in the game.
Darren Sproles: Did have 70+ yds last week in a rout of the Jets on MNF…short week and they have to travel, I don’t see big things for Sproles this week.
Darren McFadden: I can see him having 100 total yds, he is the new weapon brought in for games like this. I think they will find all sorts of ways to get him involved in the offense, definite candidate for top20, maybe top10 this week.
Michael Bush: RB2 role this week as Fargas is still kinds gimpy. He looks good on the field but he is no threat to catch the ball right now, 50 yds is about all you can expect.
Final Score: Oakland 23…San Diego 20
Washington at Dallas
Overview: The Skins have managed to get thins turned around with home wins against NO and AZ…this was huge after they came out and lost badly to the NY Giants in week 1, people were calling for Jim Zorn’s head…amazing how winning cures all those problems. Are the Skins really that good? No, but they have shown some serious signs of life in that passing game. This has helped take some of the pressure off the running game and now the Skins are racking up 123 yds a game on the ground, portis is scoring TDs, they look pretty good and they are going to need a lot of points to keep up with Dallas. Jason Taylor is out so that will hurt their pass rush, and I think they need a minimum of 30-35 points to compete on Sunday, not sure they can actually do that.
Clinton Portis: Always a threat for 100 yds and a TD, he is looking good, and he is simply producing right now. Out of the 7 times he has faced Dallas, he has only scored a TD in 2 of those games, one of them he scored twice. Dallas has contained him pretty good but now Campbell and the passing game is coming around, but Dallas has Adam Jones roaming around in the secondary now, he is making his presence felt on this team. Start Portis though, he should be able to rack up at least 75-100 yds in this game, just hope the Skins can keep it close.
MB III : Must start every week, no reason to look at stats, I love the Barbarian.
Felix Jones: If you have bye week issues then he becomes a real possibility. He is only going to touch the ball about 8-10 times, so you have to hope he rips one off from pretty far out. If the game is lopsided he will see more action.
Final Score: Dallas 38…Washington 24
Philadelphia at Chicago
Overview: The Eagles…what can I say? I have been on their tip for weeks, told everyone how nasty their defense is, and finally they showed on Sunday what I have been talking about. Westbrook is likely OUT this week so let’s operate under that assumption, then if Westy can play, we’ll change things towards the end of the week. Buckhalter and Booker might be available on your WW so check it out.
The Bears are only giving up 71 yds and 3.4 ypc on the ground. It’s criminal the way they have lost the last 2 weeks…clearly the defense is on all cylinders right now. I do not expect Philly with a banged up OL to come marching into Chicago and push the bears around all over the field…I do not envision that happening.
Correll Buckhalter: I see where he is being talked about as top10 this week…forget it. This game will come down to McNabb and the short passing game. I see DeSean, LJ Smith/TE, and maybe the backs OOTB…so if you like Buck to catch about 5-7 balls this weekend then plug him in, but I don’t see top10 numbers from him this week.
Lorenzo Booker: Hasn’t done a lot so far and wasn’t asked to do much last week when Westy left. I would not be starting him right now.
Matt Forte: Philly is allowing an unreal 45 yds a game on the ground and 2.4 ypc…unless their DTs are OUT for this game, no reason to think they would be, but I just don’t see Forte or the bears scoring a lot of points, and I don’t see them moving the football. Teams are finding out quickly that the Eagles defense is not playing around…they know they have an offense and a QB that can manufacture 14-20 points easily every week. They now have a defense that can win games by themselves. They destroyed the Pittsburgh OL last week to the tune of 9 sacks!!! Forte will be miserable this week and I expect him to be bottled up most of the day. AVOID IF POSSIBLE!!!
Final Score: Philly 18…Chicago 12
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Overview: The Ravens are 2-0? Not many people expected this. I think their first loss of the season will come this week…I feel pretty safe in saying that their 2-0 start is an illusion, but we’ll see how it plays out. The Steelers OL showed its true colors this past week. Parker is OUT for the Steelers and Big Ben is not exactly healthy either…the more I think about it, maybe Baltimore can get to 3-0.
Willis McGahee: That sneaky OC, Cam Cameron, said McGahee would see an increasing role but that they were going with LeMac and Rice…what a mess this past week. I guess if you have McGahee you can think about a spot start this week. The Steelers are only giving up 2.8 ypc right now so he I doubt any of the Ravens are strong plays this week. Might be outside of the top20.
LeMac: Will see a decrease IMO as the weeks roll on.
Ray Rice: Disappointing to not see him get more touches this past week…is he the RB3 now?
Rashard Mendenhall: Gonna learn a lot about this kid on MNF. The Ravens are pretty stout aginast the run, only giving up 71 yds a game. Not sure Mendy is a great start but if you own him, I doubt I can talk you out of playing him.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 9…Baltimore 6
Good Luck this weekend!!!
Last edited by a moderator: