Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
As usual, week 7 brought some wonderful surprises and some awful disappointments as well. Let’s take a look now at week 8 and see if we can find where the best chances are to cash in. I will give the yards rushing for the offense vs the yards rushing the opposing defense is allowing. Good rule of thumb is usually the starting RB gets anywhere from 60-90% of the yards rushing by a team.
Arizona 66/96 at Green Bay 100/113
Edge : Just a complete waste right now for owners. I don’t see how you can keep wheeling him out every week. Time for plan B, whatever that may be for you. The Packers are no pushovers on defense against the run. Teams may abuse their secondary but they are not just running over this defense. Don’t be surprised for another ho hum performance from Edge this weekend.
Ahman Green : Had a nice long run for a TD that really padded his number on Sunday. The Cardinals are giving up 4.0 ypc on defense…sort of in the middle but they have given up a TD on the ground almost every week, so start Green this week while keeping an eye on that injury report.
Atlanta 222/127 at Cincinnati 99/98
It should be noted that Vick really pushes the number up for rushing yards when looking at the Falcons.
Warrick Dunn : Last 2 weeks he has posted 146/TD, 69/TD, he is solid as a starting RB and even better in the RB2 slot for most teams. He should have a good game in Cinci.
Jerious Norwood : He has had rushing totals of 66, 45, 106/TD, and last week had 64 yds on 8 carries. He is avg 7.6 yards a clip. If I was the Head Coach I would make sure Norwood touches the ball at least 10 times a game. Dunn isn’t going to lose his job anytime soon but it would be exciting to see what Norwood can bring in a little bit of a larger role in that offense. Especially would like to see them set up a screen and get him in some open space. You can’t start norwood right now but he sure is an electrifying player.
Rudi Johnson : Solid game last week, racked 100 yds but no TDs. The Bengals win when Rudi gets 20+ carries. In their 2 losses this season he has 14 and 17 carries. The staff must know this and RJ owners should feel very comfortable with Johnson for right now. Even against the better defenses he grinds out yards.
Baltimore 94/119 at New Orleans 109/71
Jamal Lewis : The Saints are giving up 4.9 yards per carry. I expect a healthy dose of Lewis this week and I also think they will open up the passing game a bit more and that should translate into a few more open holes for Lewis. Lewis is not a great start right now but he should see some production on Sunday.
Deuce McAllister : The Saints only avg 3.7 ypc on offense and the Ravens are only giving up 2.7 ypc on defense. This is not a great match up for Deuce this week.
Reggie Bush : Flex leagues only with PPR right now.
Houston 78/164 at Tennessee 114/138
Wali Lundy : 1st of all, if this guy is on your WW somehow…go get him immediately. Lundy turn in the best performance of the season by a Texan last week with 19 carries for 93 yds and a TD. He has a 4.2 avg and he even had 4 receptions to boot. He needs to be on the field. Not sure he is a definite starter but if he gets significant touches this weekend he should do very well. The Titans are allowing 1.5-2 TD per game.
Smakon Gado : 1.5, 1.3, 2.7, those are his averages over the past 3 weeks. Stay away from him and you cannot start this guy right now, even with the Titans this week.
Travis Henry : I still do not trust the Titans enough to be automatically starting players for my team every week, however Henry has turned in a 129 yard performance followed up by another 178 2 weeks ago in Washington. The Texans give up 4.6 ypc so expect him to do well this week.
Jacksonville 115/104 at Philadelphia 125/98
After dropping a game to Houston last week, Jacksonville must now buckle up and go to Philly who themselves will be in a bad mood after losing to Tampa Bay but outpacing them by over 300 yards on offense…yikes!!!
Fred Taylor : Philly only yields 3.6 ypc. I expect Fred to have a slow day in Philly on Sunday. He actually had 84 yds on 16 carries last week…he is not the reason Jacksonville lost the game.
Maurice Drew : Had 68 yds and a score on Sunday. He has 5 TDs on the season. I think the Jags will be shut down mostly on Sunday but in flex leagues keep plugging MJD out there.
Brian Westbrook : As long as he can play you start him every week. Then sit back and enjoy. 200+ yds last week and a TD…awesome.
Seattle 99/123 at Kansas City 99/92
Maurice Morris : Has done nothing memorable filling in for Shaun while he is out. The Chiefs are not world beaters at stopping the run but Seattle is not a good rushing team so the match up is off set by that. Pass if you can.
Larry Johnson : 2 TDs and about 150 yards total last week. People were thinking about possibly benching him for other players…do not bench Larry ever ever ever. This is not a terrific match up but Chester Taylor had a terrific day against Seattle last week. I think a new QB under center and no Shaun to carry Seattle spells short fields for the Chiefs to work with…LJ should have a good day.
San Francisco 117/74 at Chicago 97/119
Frank Gore : Not an easy match up. If you have other options you could explore them but Gore also racks up yards out of the backfield catching the ball so he could still manage 100 total yards on the day. I do think Alex Smith and crew will test the secondary of the Bears as they lost Mike Brown for the season…that is a major blow both against the pass and rush.
Thomas Jones : SF is giving up 4.3 ypc and 1.5 TD a game so TJ becomes a must start this week.
Cedric Benson : Let him stay on your bench for now.
Tampa Bay 92/106 at NY Giants 152/152
Cadillac : Mr. Williams has a 4.6 yard avg in October. Owners are wanting more and I think he will continue to be the focus of this offense. The Giants lost a big part of their defense in Lavar Arrington. The Giants are giving up 4.0 ypc but they have allowed 6 TDs in 6 games so maybe Caddy can cross the goal line once in the Big Apple this week. The Giants have a lot of momentum going into this game however and they will be up for this game, especially with the Bucs beating Philly last week.
Tiki Barber : Must start. 422 yards rushing over the past 3 weeks. On pace for over 65 catches this season.
Brandon Jacobs : 53/TD 2 weeks ago and followed that with 40/TD on MNF. He makes a somewhat decent option when you have bye week issues. The Bucs are giving up a lot of rushing yards right now.
St. Louis 98/82 at San Diego 148/121
Steven Jackson : The Chargers have sustained major injuries and blows to their defense. Shawn Merriman is appealing his 4 game suspension but the defense also lost their other starting OLB Phillips. SJax is not facing a 100% Chargers defense so I am a little more optimistic that he can have a good game on Sunday for his owners.
LaDainian Tomlinson : I would pencil in LT for around 120+ yds a week and at least 2 TDs…only San Diego fans are lamenting the injuries on defense. FF owners are loving the fact the Chargers may have to score 24-30+ points in order to win some of these games. Should be lots of opps for LT owners. Smooth waters for awhile.
Indy 111/90 at Denver 143/158
Joseph Addai : I watched a majority of the Indy/Wash game and it looked very apparent to me that Addai is almost ready to take over…maybe explode in this offense with the passing game starting to really click for the Colts. Rhodes will not be tossed to the side and this will be RBBC the rest of the way. Denver is not a team you can bank good points against. They have allowed 0 TDs on the season…WOW!!!
Dominic Rhodes : Read above
Tatum Bell : Was knicked at the end of the game last week. Watch the injury report but Tatum has another good match up this week. 100+ and a TD for sure.
NY Jets 115/144 at Cleveland 68/142
Leon Washington : Clearly he is the starter at this point. 2 of his last 3 games he has posted 23/101 and 20/129/2 TDs…these are great numbers and he will be going against the Browns who are giving up 4.6 ypc…expect Washington to share time with Barlow but he seems to be getting the Lions’ share of the work…they did play the Lions last who were without Shaun Rodgers last week but at least the Jets are showing they can exploit the run.
Kevan Barlow : Barlow has carried the rock about 12-13 times a game for most of the season. He comes in on short yardage and to give Washington a breather. He has racked 5 TDs for the season and I expect in TD leagues he will remain a viable starter.
Reuben Droughns : Yes on paper this is a decent match up but the Browns only avg 3.1 ypc on offense so your gambling they can actually take advantage of the situation. Their WR and QB make much better sleeper picks this week than Droughns.
Pittsburgh 114/132 at Oakland 116/94
Willie Parker : Should be able to grind out some yards this week. The Steelers are not setting the world on fire with a 3.9 ypc avg and Oakland despite giving up a lot on the ground are only yielding 3.9 ypc. It’s a decent match up but not as big of a gimme as some might think on first glance. Looks like Batch may start and if that is the case the Steelers will likely lean on Parker to get them out of the Black Hole this weekend with a win.
Lamont Jordan : Hurt himself warming up this past weekend leaving a big zero for owners in their line up. Just Bench him for now.
Justin Fargas : Keep him on your radar but I don’t expect a lot from him this weekend.
Dallas 138/114 at Carolina 96/81
Julius Jones : What a mess in Dallas. I like JJ a lot less with Romo now under center. Dallas is a time bomb waiting to implode. Wait till they lose this weekend and TO starts mouthing off. Carolina in the last 3-4 weeks have really shut the run down well. Rudi was able to grind it out against them last weekend but I look for the Panthers and their quick athletic line to jump all over the Dallas OL this weekend. It will leave few holes for JJ. Tough match up.
MB III : Pass this weekend. Always an option however in flex leagues when you have bye week issues. Has 4 rush TDs in 6 games this season.
DeShaun Foster : Hard to get excited about him when he continues to do poorly against very average to below average defenses. Dallas is actually good against the run even though Tiki tore them up on MNF. Foster will have his work cut out for him this weekend.
New England 131/70 at Minnesota 116/83
Corey Dillon : 2 rushing TD last week but neither Dillon or Maroney were able to rack up much in the yardage dept last week. Dillon has carried an avg of about 14 carries per game. This is a total RBBC situation in NE. And who can blame them? They are 5-1, have a pretty good ground game that lacked last season and they are fairly healthy. Dillon is on pace for about 220-240 carries for the season, that means he will be fresh for the playoffs. Playing against the Vikes will be no small task for either Dillon or Maroney.
Laurence Maroney : 2 cold games, time to send him back to the bench for now.
Chester Taylor : Tore up the Seahawks last week. Looks like the left side of that OL has really started to gel. Taylor is almost a must start from here on out.
And to the board...I did not include a cheatsheet for several reasons. We started it a few weeks ago and I only did that for the boards...the site where this hits weekly, we do not post a cheatsheet with it. I want discussion more than just a raw number of where the guy will finish. No one can absolutely predict what a player will score on any given Sunday...you can guess but it's not a science.
I find it much better to talk about who has a good match up and who doesn't and let you all decide for yourself who you should start.
Enjoy
Arizona 66/96 at Green Bay 100/113
Edge : Just a complete waste right now for owners. I don’t see how you can keep wheeling him out every week. Time for plan B, whatever that may be for you. The Packers are no pushovers on defense against the run. Teams may abuse their secondary but they are not just running over this defense. Don’t be surprised for another ho hum performance from Edge this weekend.
Ahman Green : Had a nice long run for a TD that really padded his number on Sunday. The Cardinals are giving up 4.0 ypc on defense…sort of in the middle but they have given up a TD on the ground almost every week, so start Green this week while keeping an eye on that injury report.
Atlanta 222/127 at Cincinnati 99/98
It should be noted that Vick really pushes the number up for rushing yards when looking at the Falcons.
Warrick Dunn : Last 2 weeks he has posted 146/TD, 69/TD, he is solid as a starting RB and even better in the RB2 slot for most teams. He should have a good game in Cinci.
Jerious Norwood : He has had rushing totals of 66, 45, 106/TD, and last week had 64 yds on 8 carries. He is avg 7.6 yards a clip. If I was the Head Coach I would make sure Norwood touches the ball at least 10 times a game. Dunn isn’t going to lose his job anytime soon but it would be exciting to see what Norwood can bring in a little bit of a larger role in that offense. Especially would like to see them set up a screen and get him in some open space. You can’t start norwood right now but he sure is an electrifying player.
Rudi Johnson : Solid game last week, racked 100 yds but no TDs. The Bengals win when Rudi gets 20+ carries. In their 2 losses this season he has 14 and 17 carries. The staff must know this and RJ owners should feel very comfortable with Johnson for right now. Even against the better defenses he grinds out yards.
Baltimore 94/119 at New Orleans 109/71
Jamal Lewis : The Saints are giving up 4.9 yards per carry. I expect a healthy dose of Lewis this week and I also think they will open up the passing game a bit more and that should translate into a few more open holes for Lewis. Lewis is not a great start right now but he should see some production on Sunday.
Deuce McAllister : The Saints only avg 3.7 ypc on offense and the Ravens are only giving up 2.7 ypc on defense. This is not a great match up for Deuce this week.
Reggie Bush : Flex leagues only with PPR right now.
Houston 78/164 at Tennessee 114/138
Wali Lundy : 1st of all, if this guy is on your WW somehow…go get him immediately. Lundy turn in the best performance of the season by a Texan last week with 19 carries for 93 yds and a TD. He has a 4.2 avg and he even had 4 receptions to boot. He needs to be on the field. Not sure he is a definite starter but if he gets significant touches this weekend he should do very well. The Titans are allowing 1.5-2 TD per game.
Smakon Gado : 1.5, 1.3, 2.7, those are his averages over the past 3 weeks. Stay away from him and you cannot start this guy right now, even with the Titans this week.
Travis Henry : I still do not trust the Titans enough to be automatically starting players for my team every week, however Henry has turned in a 129 yard performance followed up by another 178 2 weeks ago in Washington. The Texans give up 4.6 ypc so expect him to do well this week.
Jacksonville 115/104 at Philadelphia 125/98
After dropping a game to Houston last week, Jacksonville must now buckle up and go to Philly who themselves will be in a bad mood after losing to Tampa Bay but outpacing them by over 300 yards on offense…yikes!!!
Fred Taylor : Philly only yields 3.6 ypc. I expect Fred to have a slow day in Philly on Sunday. He actually had 84 yds on 16 carries last week…he is not the reason Jacksonville lost the game.
Maurice Drew : Had 68 yds and a score on Sunday. He has 5 TDs on the season. I think the Jags will be shut down mostly on Sunday but in flex leagues keep plugging MJD out there.
Brian Westbrook : As long as he can play you start him every week. Then sit back and enjoy. 200+ yds last week and a TD…awesome.
Seattle 99/123 at Kansas City 99/92
Maurice Morris : Has done nothing memorable filling in for Shaun while he is out. The Chiefs are not world beaters at stopping the run but Seattle is not a good rushing team so the match up is off set by that. Pass if you can.
Larry Johnson : 2 TDs and about 150 yards total last week. People were thinking about possibly benching him for other players…do not bench Larry ever ever ever. This is not a terrific match up but Chester Taylor had a terrific day against Seattle last week. I think a new QB under center and no Shaun to carry Seattle spells short fields for the Chiefs to work with…LJ should have a good day.
San Francisco 117/74 at Chicago 97/119
Frank Gore : Not an easy match up. If you have other options you could explore them but Gore also racks up yards out of the backfield catching the ball so he could still manage 100 total yards on the day. I do think Alex Smith and crew will test the secondary of the Bears as they lost Mike Brown for the season…that is a major blow both against the pass and rush.
Thomas Jones : SF is giving up 4.3 ypc and 1.5 TD a game so TJ becomes a must start this week.
Cedric Benson : Let him stay on your bench for now.
Tampa Bay 92/106 at NY Giants 152/152
Cadillac : Mr. Williams has a 4.6 yard avg in October. Owners are wanting more and I think he will continue to be the focus of this offense. The Giants lost a big part of their defense in Lavar Arrington. The Giants are giving up 4.0 ypc but they have allowed 6 TDs in 6 games so maybe Caddy can cross the goal line once in the Big Apple this week. The Giants have a lot of momentum going into this game however and they will be up for this game, especially with the Bucs beating Philly last week.
Tiki Barber : Must start. 422 yards rushing over the past 3 weeks. On pace for over 65 catches this season.
Brandon Jacobs : 53/TD 2 weeks ago and followed that with 40/TD on MNF. He makes a somewhat decent option when you have bye week issues. The Bucs are giving up a lot of rushing yards right now.
St. Louis 98/82 at San Diego 148/121
Steven Jackson : The Chargers have sustained major injuries and blows to their defense. Shawn Merriman is appealing his 4 game suspension but the defense also lost their other starting OLB Phillips. SJax is not facing a 100% Chargers defense so I am a little more optimistic that he can have a good game on Sunday for his owners.
LaDainian Tomlinson : I would pencil in LT for around 120+ yds a week and at least 2 TDs…only San Diego fans are lamenting the injuries on defense. FF owners are loving the fact the Chargers may have to score 24-30+ points in order to win some of these games. Should be lots of opps for LT owners. Smooth waters for awhile.
Indy 111/90 at Denver 143/158
Joseph Addai : I watched a majority of the Indy/Wash game and it looked very apparent to me that Addai is almost ready to take over…maybe explode in this offense with the passing game starting to really click for the Colts. Rhodes will not be tossed to the side and this will be RBBC the rest of the way. Denver is not a team you can bank good points against. They have allowed 0 TDs on the season…WOW!!!
Dominic Rhodes : Read above
Tatum Bell : Was knicked at the end of the game last week. Watch the injury report but Tatum has another good match up this week. 100+ and a TD for sure.
NY Jets 115/144 at Cleveland 68/142
Leon Washington : Clearly he is the starter at this point. 2 of his last 3 games he has posted 23/101 and 20/129/2 TDs…these are great numbers and he will be going against the Browns who are giving up 4.6 ypc…expect Washington to share time with Barlow but he seems to be getting the Lions’ share of the work…they did play the Lions last who were without Shaun Rodgers last week but at least the Jets are showing they can exploit the run.
Kevan Barlow : Barlow has carried the rock about 12-13 times a game for most of the season. He comes in on short yardage and to give Washington a breather. He has racked 5 TDs for the season and I expect in TD leagues he will remain a viable starter.
Reuben Droughns : Yes on paper this is a decent match up but the Browns only avg 3.1 ypc on offense so your gambling they can actually take advantage of the situation. Their WR and QB make much better sleeper picks this week than Droughns.
Pittsburgh 114/132 at Oakland 116/94
Willie Parker : Should be able to grind out some yards this week. The Steelers are not setting the world on fire with a 3.9 ypc avg and Oakland despite giving up a lot on the ground are only yielding 3.9 ypc. It’s a decent match up but not as big of a gimme as some might think on first glance. Looks like Batch may start and if that is the case the Steelers will likely lean on Parker to get them out of the Black Hole this weekend with a win.
Lamont Jordan : Hurt himself warming up this past weekend leaving a big zero for owners in their line up. Just Bench him for now.
Justin Fargas : Keep him on your radar but I don’t expect a lot from him this weekend.
Dallas 138/114 at Carolina 96/81
Julius Jones : What a mess in Dallas. I like JJ a lot less with Romo now under center. Dallas is a time bomb waiting to implode. Wait till they lose this weekend and TO starts mouthing off. Carolina in the last 3-4 weeks have really shut the run down well. Rudi was able to grind it out against them last weekend but I look for the Panthers and their quick athletic line to jump all over the Dallas OL this weekend. It will leave few holes for JJ. Tough match up.
MB III : Pass this weekend. Always an option however in flex leagues when you have bye week issues. Has 4 rush TDs in 6 games this season.
DeShaun Foster : Hard to get excited about him when he continues to do poorly against very average to below average defenses. Dallas is actually good against the run even though Tiki tore them up on MNF. Foster will have his work cut out for him this weekend.
New England 131/70 at Minnesota 116/83
Corey Dillon : 2 rushing TD last week but neither Dillon or Maroney were able to rack up much in the yardage dept last week. Dillon has carried an avg of about 14 carries per game. This is a total RBBC situation in NE. And who can blame them? They are 5-1, have a pretty good ground game that lacked last season and they are fairly healthy. Dillon is on pace for about 220-240 carries for the season, that means he will be fresh for the playoffs. Playing against the Vikes will be no small task for either Dillon or Maroney.
Laurence Maroney : 2 cold games, time to send him back to the bench for now.
Chester Taylor : Tore up the Seahawks last week. Looks like the left side of that OL has really started to gel. Taylor is almost a must start from here on out.
And to the board...I did not include a cheatsheet for several reasons. We started it a few weeks ago and I only did that for the boards...the site where this hits weekly, we do not post a cheatsheet with it. I want discussion more than just a raw number of where the guy will finish. No one can absolutely predict what a player will score on any given Sunday...you can guess but it's not a science.
I find it much better to talk about who has a good match up and who doesn't and let you all decide for yourself who you should start.
Enjoy
out of that.
I think you may have overemphasized the value of playing the matchups. I wouldn't bench Jackson ever.
