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RB Phillip Lindsay, IND (2 Viewers)

Because Week 1
Because game flow
I agree about week 1 and not getting ahead of ourselves. But the gameflow argument doesn't make sense to me. It was an evenly matched game. How did the gameflow favor Lindsay usage in a way that other gameflows wouldn't? Other than games where Denver blows their opponent out and presumably lean on Freeman more.

 
I'm not seeing the comparison with Cohen, other than being smaller sized backs. Lindsay runs with way more power and can run between the tackles. Cohen needs space, and simply cant break tackles.

I don't know how you couldn't be worried as a Freeman owner. You drafted him as a near bell cow RB, and he basically went 50/50 with not Booker, but UDFA Lindsay. And there was no underlying reason Lindsay got so much run from the start of the game, other than it was planned. Up until the last drive of the game, here is the breakdown-

Lindsay- 13 for 66

Freeman- 11 for 34

Freeman salvaged his day on the last drive, and even then, Lindsay got the last 2 carries!

I know its only 1 game, but that 1 game told a surprising story. And up until the last drive of the game, Lindsay was out producing him by a lot. 

No. I don't think Lindsay will necessarily take over the backfield right now, but if I were a Freeman owner, I would be very concerned. 
I am a Freeman owner not concerned at all about Lindsay.  I didn't even put in a claim for him.

 
I agree about week 1 and not getting ahead of ourselves. But the gameflow argument doesn't make sense to me. It was an evenly matched game. How did the gameflow favor Lindsay usage in a way that other gameflows wouldn't? Other than games where Denver blows their opponent out and presumably lean on Freeman more.
Denver did not play very well that game. Keenum was pretty bad, and Seattle had his number, resulting in the need for higher efficiency pass attempts (such as to Lindsay). I have no doubt Lindsay is the 3rd down receiving back. In fact, it's why I started this thread and I think I even said as such on page 1 if not post 1. I don't think 15 rushes is sustainable, not for a back his size. 

I am a Freeman owner not concerned at all about Lindsay.  I didn't even put in a claim for him.
Same. He went for $0 in my league. I don't have interest in a back who could get me 2 points one week and 17 the next. 

 
I'm not seeing the comparison with Cohen, other than being smaller sized backs. Lindsay runs with way more power and can run between the tackles. Cohen needs space, and simply cant break tackles.

I don't know how you couldn't be worried as a Freeman owner. You drafted him as a near bell cow RB, and he basically went 50/50 with not Booker, but UDFA Lindsay. And there was no underlying reason Lindsay got so much run from the start of the game, other than it was planned. Up until the last drive of the game, here is the breakdown-

Lindsay- 13 for 66

Freeman- 11 for 34

Freeman salvaged his day on the last drive, and even then, Lindsay got the last 2 carries!

I know its only 1 game, but that 1 game told a surprising story. And up until the last drive of the game, Lindsay was out producing him by a lot. 

No. I don't think Lindsay will necessarily take over the backfield right now, but if I were a Freeman owner, I would be very concerned. 
Interesting.  I wonder how different the discussion/narrative/panic would be if the game had ended with these lines.

 
Looks like a faster Justin Forsett to me. He's pretty bulky for his height. Short but not small.

 
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Game flow? From the opening kickoff? 
Agreed...if you look at the video with his runs he is getting carries in a close game when they are behind and ahead...if you are a Lindsay owner that is exactly what you want to see because it could mean he will not be pigeonholed...it is still only week 1 and as a Lindsay Owner if I can get about 12-15 touches a game from him I will be  ecstatic...

 
I’m think I’m using my #2 waiver on him. I don’t think the coaches came into this game with him penciled in as the RB2 / split guy, and he seemingly just took the job from Booker in-game. I think he’s in a “he can’t be denied” type situation after a great camp and showing up in a real game. 

Plus he looks like a better fit than Booker to be the lightening to Freeman’s thunder. 15 rushes and 3 targets can’t be ignored imo. The downside is that this is just a repeat of Tarik Cohen from week one last season, but I’m pretty sure Cohen hasn’t rushed 15 times in a game so far in his career. 
I put in a #2 waiver claim in on him and I am thinking I probably won’t get him.... 

 
Denver did not play very well that game. Keenum was pretty bad, and Seattle had his number, resulting in the need for higher efficiency pass attempts (such as to Lindsay). I have no doubt Lindsay is the 3rd down receiving back.
Denver needed to go to high efficiency passes and that's why Lindsay split carries with Freeman and got 3 targets? And they realized this on the first drive?

 
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Well this might explain a little about Lindsay’s usage. 

Some wondered how it was game-flow.

here’s the likely answer: 

66.7 percent of Freeman's rushing attempts came with eight or more defenders in the box, the highest rate for any running back in Week 1.
Every time Freeman was in the backfield, they stacked 8 n the box to stuff the run.

Denver adjusted to that by using Lindsey more heavily.

AKA: game-flow.

I’m actually pretty impressed that Freeman manage 4+ yards a carry given the circumstances

 
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Keenum was pushing the ball down the field the entire game, hence the 3 INTs. bringing Lindsay in for high-efficiency passes is a false narrative.

he was in running behind tackles throughout the game with a couple of outside runs sprinkled in.

i don't think he takes a bellcow role, but the staff and players have said all training camp that Lindsay will be a part f this offense and it bore out in week 1.

I suspect a Sproles or Woodhead type role with possibly a few more carries than those backs typically garnered. from a pure talent standpoint, he's legit.

 
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Well this might explain a little about Lindsay’s usage. 

Spme wondered how it was GameFly was.

here’s the likely answer: 

Every time Freeman was in the backfield, they stacked 8 n the box to stuff the run.

Denver adjusted to that by using Lindsey more heavily.

AKA: game-flow.

I’m actually pretty impressed that Freeman manage 4+ yards a carry given the circumstances
Oof. Bad sign for Freeman. 

 
Disagree. 8 in the box & Freeman managed 4+ yards per carry.

how do you possibly divine that as a bad omen? Let me guess - because you claimed Lindsay off the WW or otherwise have him rostered? 

Come on. 
Because defenses will continue to stack the box if Freeman isn't a receiving threat?   Because the Broncos might face a better run defense in the coming weeks?

 
Disagree. 8 in the box & Freeman managed 4+ yards per carry.

how do you possibly divine that as a bad omen? Let me guess - because you claimed Lindsay off the WW or otherwise have him rostered? 

Come on. 
Because teams are going to keep putting 8+ men in the box against Freeman. If Denver's response to that is to run somebody else, that's clearly a bad sign for Freeman moving forward. 

 
Because defenses will continue to stack the box if Freeman isn't a receiving threat?   Because the Broncos might face a better run defense in the coming weeks?
More likely they’ll face worse. 

And usually in this circumstance the opposing team is daring a team to beat them through the air. 

Now that there’s a game in the books and Denver has shown they can throw, I wouldn’t expect to see the same.

man -y’all have this tendency to project forward as though every week for the next 16 can be divined from one game.  :rolleyes:

this is getting ridiculous. All we know is what happened week 1. 

If anything the only really settled thing is that Freeman will continue to get bellcow & short yardage opportunities.

Everything else is optimism & guesswork. 

 
Because teams are going to keep putting 8+ men in the box against Freeman. If Denver's response to that is to run somebody else, that's clearly a bad sign for Freeman moving forward. 
I suppose you have that in writing from all the DCs on the Bronco’s schedule?

or you’re psychic? 

Which is it? 

 
Also Freeman showed us he could catch the ball in the preseason. 

Last I checked, OCs make adjustments too. They don’t write the playbook in sharpee ya know. ;)  

one of these stacked boxes is gonna see a Freeman screen to the house & that’ll end that nonsense.

let’s all take a deep breath and revisit this in about week 3 to see how things have evolved. 

 
Look, I drafted Freeman way too early myself. In my biggest $ league, no less. But 29 snaps and targets isn't what we had in mind when we drafted him. 
What do you mean?

Weird projection there, friend. 

I got him 5.01 - I’m extremely pleased with his week 1 performance and see it boding well for the season. 

Speak for yourself. 

 
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This week should be interesting - Broncos face the Raiders at home. 

Raiders gave up the 6th most rushing yards of week 1. Against Gurley, of course, but that defense is pretty toothless without Mack.

i would expect a Freeman-heavy plan & more traditional usage of Lindsey. 

We’ll see if that holds true. I’m not trying to be a wet blanket here, and in fact have said I think Lindsey looks good & should have flex value. 

But try to be realistic here - it’s one game, against an above average run defense. 

Things change week to week. I’ll check back after week 2 and if I have to eat crow I’m never shy about it. 

Somehow im not real worried about that happening though. 

 
Good point about 8 men in the box vs Freeman. I think this changes with Keenum showing he can throw downfield.  But the point is valid regarding gameflow as it relates to Lindsay getting *carries*, but doesn't quite fit into the high efficiency passing narrative that never even materialized as much as it should have. 

Keenum looked great and terrible to me. Those picks were pretty awful. But I wouldn't expect them to change their game plan much from what I saw in week 1. It was successful, for the most part.

17 carries may very well be the high water mark for the year for Lindsay, but is 8 to 12 carries out of the picture as a stable floor? And as the bonafide 3rd down back I think Woodhead/Sproles comparisons are not off base at all, aside from being premature.

I spent 5 to 10% of my FAAB balance last week. Sure seems worth it. Even if end up being wrong. It's another at-bat as I look at it.

 
More likely they’ll face worse. 

And usually in this circumstance the opposing team is daring a team to beat them through the air. 

Now that there’s a game in the books and Denver has shown they can throw, I wouldn’t expect to see the same.

man -y’all have this tendency to project forward as though every week for the next 16 can be divined from one game.  :rolleyes:

this is getting ridiculous. All we know is what happened week 1. 

If anything the only really settled thing is that Freeman will continue to get bellcow & short yardage opportunities.

Everything else is optimism & guesswork. 
All we know is what happened week 1 and that was virtually split snaps and carries yet you’ve concluded that Freeman is the bellcow? Seems a little contradictory. 

 
Good point about 8 men in the box vs Freeman. I think this changes with Keenum showing he can throw downfield.  But the point is valid regarding gameflow as it relates to Lindsay getting *carries*, but doesn't quite fit into the high efficiency passing narrative that never even materialized as much as it should have. 

Keenum looked great and terrible to me. Those picks were pretty awful. But I wouldn't expect them to change their game plan much from what I saw in week 1. It was successful, for the most part.

17 carries may very well be the high water mark for the year for Lindsay, but is 8 to 12 carries out of the picture as a stable floor? And as the bonafide 3rd down back I think Woodhead/Sproles comparisons are not off base at all, aside from being premature.

I spent 5 to 10% of my FAAB balance last week. Sure seems worth it. Even if end up being wrong. It's another at-bat as I look at it.
I think 8-12 carries + 2-5 receptions is about what folks can expect.

maybe less, maybe more week to week.

5-10% seems very fair. 15% would be aggressive, but that also depends on your roster. If you’ve got Bell & Devonte Freeman as your RB1-2, you might spend upwards of 25%.

any more than that seems silly to me, as invariably there’ll be a RB more worthy of that sort of investment coming available this year. 

 
All we know is what happened week 1 and that was virtually split snaps and carries yet you’ve concluded that Freeman is the bellcow? Seems a little contradictory. 
Because the team said he was the starter & he led the backfield in snap count.

that seems pretty cut & dry. 

 
That's a strange statement.  Can you explain further?
Do you think Lindsay will get 15 touches a game all season? Do you think his body will hold up to that? Because I can think of 1 or two backs who ever held up to that kind of work load in the history of the NFL

His best asset is his ability in the passing game. He wasn't used enough in the passing game to give me confidence that he will get 4-6 targets a game, resulting in double digit scores. If he could get 5/50 a game I would think that's an amazing floor and I'd be all over this, especially if you add 6-8 rushes a game (random number). So, if he is not used in the rushing game as much as the season goes on, then his floor is potentially very low unless his usage goes up in the passing game. 

If we are going to hop all over the guy for 15 rushing attempts week 1, then we should be equally concerned about only 2 receptions, because word was he was going to be the pass catching back.

Do you think it is typical for a UDFA to get that many touches in week 1?
If you consider him a typical UDFA you've been sleeping all offseason. I started this thread in July because he was already getting rave reviews and there was early talk about him being the 3rd down back long before the preseason. 

 
I think 8-12 carries + 2-5 receptions is about what folks can expect.

maybe less, maybe more week to week.

5-10% seems very fair. 15% would be aggressive, but that also depends on your roster. If you’ve got Bell & Devonte Freeman as your RB1-2, you might spend upwards of 25%.

any more than that seems silly to me, as invariably there’ll be a RB more worthy of that sort of investment coming available this year. 
If he gets anything more than 3 receptions a week then people should be pretty happy with him in PPR leagues. That's a pretty nice floor and something I could get excited over (and what I was somewhat predicting on post 1)  

 
The narrative that Lindsay only got carries because Denver was tired of having the box stacked against Freeman is interesting considering Freeman had a whopping two carries at the time Lindsay started getting a lot of work.

I really don't think that had anything to do with it.

And btw, four of those carries against 8 in the box came on the last drive when Seattle was stacking the box because Denver was in clock killing mode, not because of who the RB was.

 
Because the team said he was the starter & he led the backfield in snap count.

that seems pretty cut & dry. 
He got less than 40% of the offensive snaps 50% of the carries. That's not bell cow utilization. 

I don't think I've read a single person claim that Lindsay will continue getting 50% of the carries moving forward. Nobody is saying the book is closed or ruling out a Freeman dominated backfield at some point down the road. It's just weird to me that you and a few other Freeman owners are somehow taking Sunday as a positive. You can't even grant that you expected more than 29 snaps and 0 targets for a guy you drafted at 5.01.That's some serious mental gymnastics. 

It's not about you eating crow. Again, it's just odd that you can't acknowledge any level of concern.  

 
Because the team said he was the starter & he led the backfield in snap count.

that seems pretty cut & dry. 
I mean he had 3 more snaps and 2 less touches. That doesn’t exactly scream bellcow. And I do think he will be used that way with Lindsay playing a more traditional Woodhead like role. Just found it funny that you say week 1 is all we know when week 1 doesn’t prove he’s a bellcow in the least.

 
:lol:

So you’re expecting him to break his long running streak with something that is actually accurate and knowledgeable?  
I really do not care to speak for other folks very much  But I will say that some people have the ability to paint a picture good enough that it can cloud your own vision  Chance it happened to Cecil in the past without even realizing it  The NFL is just a strange animal  You have speed w/o pads  Then you have practice speed  Maybe for some there's a Pre Season speed  Finally you have NFL speed  This mofo has NFL speed! :wub:   Hope that helps ya some  Good day to you!

 
Touchdowns do correct?  Freeman had an Oregon record 60 rushing touchdowns in college and he will get 10+ in Denver this year.  Add in over 1000 rushing/receiving yards and he will live up to his draft position just fine.
How many TDs did Denver rush for last year?  

10 may be a bit optimistic 

 
i did last night and did not get him
He went 5th in one league, 6th in the other.

it’s week one - most teams are healthy enough at all positions that they don’t want to blow their WW priority for a BYE/flex player. 

In both leagues it was the Bell owner who grabbed him. One league the Bell owner had his handcuff, but also had McKinnon. Ouch. 

 
He got less than 40% of the offensive snaps 50% of the carries. That's not bell cow utilization. 

I don't think I've read a single person claim that Lindsay will continue getting 50% of the carries moving forward. Nobody is saying the book is closed or ruling out a Freeman dominated backfield at some point down the road. It's just weird to me that you and a few other Freeman owners are somehow taking Sunday as a positive. You can't even grant that you expected more than 29 snaps and 0 targets for a guy you drafted at 5.01.That's some serious mental gymnastics. 

It's not about you eating crow. Again, it's just odd that you can't acknowledge any level of concern.  
Against 8-9 in the box he averaged over 4 yards per carry. And he received 17 touches. 

He had success against the worst possible scenario & received a workhorse number of touches in a weird game, game-flow wise.

theres plenty of reason tor optimism in that information as Freeman owner, or anyone who’s watched this game for a while.

i fail to understand your pessimism watching the same thing. That’s super weird to me. 

 
He went 5th in one league, 6th in the other.

it’s week one - most teams are healthy enough at all positions that they don’t want to blow their WW priority for a BYE/flex player. 

In both leagues it was the Bell owner who grabbed him. One league the Bell owner had his handcuff, but also had McKinnon. Ouch. 
I have Fournette and little depth (Stud WR/TEs) ... so I'm dropping 60% of my FAAB on grabbing Lindsay, hoping he'll be flex worthy all year. He doesn't need to ever turn into a feature back to be worth that for me.

Note that this is a deep league (18 spots) so there's basically nothing on the waiver wire.  Desean, Hines, and Jalen Richard are the only other roster-able guys.

 
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I have Fournette and little depth (Stud WR/TEs) ... so I'm dropping 60% of my FAAB on grabbing Lindsay, hoping he'll be flex worthy all year. He doesn't need to ever turn into a feature back to be worth that for me.

Note that this is a deep league (18 spots) so there's basically nothing on the waiver wire.  Desean, Hines, and Jalen Richard are the only other roster-able guys.
60% seems high. 

Inwouldnt go more than 40% and that’s if I was totally desperate. And only because of your deep bench. 

60% means if a truly workhorse back emerges due to injury, you’ll be too cash poor to make a move.

i dunno - it’s your budget. I just feel like that’s not going to pay off. I could be wrong.  :shrug:

 
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60% seems high. 

Inwouldnt go more than 40% and that’s if I was totally desperate. And only because of your deep bench. 

60% means if a truly workhorse back emerges due to injury, you’ll be too cash poor to make a move.

i dunno - it’s your budget. I just feel like that’s not going to pay off. I could be wrong.  :shrug:
Agreed. I drafted him the dropped him @ roster cuts. Another owner picked him up after week 1 for 50% of our BB bucks. That was $150. I bid $25 on him lol

 
Do you think Lindsay will get 15 touches a game all season? Do you think his body will hold up to that? Because I can think of 1 or two backs who ever held up to that kind of work load in the history of the NFL

His best asset is his ability in the passing game. He wasn't used enough in the passing game to give me confidence that he will get 4-6 targets a game, resulting in double digit scores. If he could get 5/50 a game I would think that's an amazing floor and I'd be all over this, especially if you add 6-8 rushes a game (random number). So, if he is not used in the rushing game as much as the season goes on, then his floor is potentially very low unless his usage goes up in the passing game. 

If we are going to hop all over the guy for 15 rushing attempts week 1, then we should be equally concerned about only 2 receptions, because word was he was going to be the pass catching back.

If you consider him a typical UDFA you've been sleeping all offseason. I started this thread in July because he was already getting rave reviews and there was early talk about him being the 3rd down back long before the preseason. 
Thanks for starting the thread - I'm glad that you did.  It's probably why I drafted him.  So no, I don't think he's a typical UDFA and neither do you.  Which makes his UDFA pedigree meaningless (note:  you brought it up first; I didn't).

On the 15 vs 2 points issue, the reason for my question is.....that lots of guys who have high variance point totals from week-to-week still have value. I found it weird that you would so quickly dismiss a guy like him.....like you had zero interest in owning him because his stats will fluctuate each week.   Austin Ekeler, Dion Lewis and Chris Thompson will be similar -- but they all have value as RB3/flex, particularly in bigger or deeper leagues.   Maybe that isn't your league structure, but if that's the case realize others DO have leagues with 12/14/16 teams or 40-man rosters.  It isn't ridiculous to think Lindsay is valuable in those leagues, yet you play off this attitude of "I have no interest in that volatility (with an implied addition of "anyone who does have interest is a moron").

Anyway.  That's what I found odd.

Again, I've loved the vigorous debate in this thread.  It's awesome when people disagree and bring a range of perspectives.  Maybe Lindsay is JAG by week 5.  Maybe he's MJD.  Probably somewhere in the middle, closer to JAG.  But I'm glad that this thread is active.  Thanks again for starting it.

 
Against 8-9 in the box he averaged over 4 yards per carry. And he received 17 touches. 

He had success against the worst possible scenario & received a workhorse number of touches in a weird game, game-flow wise.

theres plenty of reason tor optimism in that information as Freeman owner, or anyone who’s watched this game for a while.

i fail to understand your pessimism watching the same thing. That’s super weird to me. 
I think you are assuming that people in here who are excited about Lindsay....are also automatically pessimistic about Freeman.  Hell, I'm just happy Lindsay has value.  If he turns into Chris Thompson/Dion Lewis/Austin Ekeler and is a RB3/flex guy or whatever, I'm cool.  He's not a future bellcow.  I'm pretty sure about that.

Freeman looks good.  He averaged a good ypc against 8-man fronts.  That's pretty darn good.

Anyway, that's my take.

 
Thanks for starting the thread - I'm glad that you did.  It's probably why I drafted him.  So no, I don't think he's a typical UDFA and neither do you.  Which makes his UDFA pedigree meaningless (note:  you brought it up first; I didn't).

On the 15 vs 2 points issue, the reason for my question is.....that lots of guys who have high variance point totals from week-to-week still have value. I found it weird that you would so quickly dismiss a guy like him.....like you had zero interest in owning him because his stats will fluctuate each week.   Austin Ekeler, Dion Lewis and Chris Thompson will be similar -- but they all have value as RB3/flex, particularly in bigger or deeper leagues.   Maybe that isn't your league structure, but if that's the case realize others DO have leagues with 12/14/16 teams or 40-man rosters.  It isn't ridiculous to think Lindsay is valuable in those leagues, yet you play off this attitude of "I have no interest in that volatility (with an implied addition of "anyone who does have interest is a moron").

Anyway.  That's what I found odd.

Again, I've loved the vigorous debate in this thread.  It's awesome when people disagree and bring a range of perspectives.  Maybe Lindsay is JAG by week 5.  Maybe he's MJD.  Probably somewhere in the middle, closer to JAG.  But I'm glad that this thread is active.  Thanks again for starting it.
I dont think Lindsay is JAG and I dont think hes Chris Thompson unless he gets more targets in the passing game. I'm concerned he won't hold up with 15 carries a game, and if those go down, which I do think they will, and his targets dont go up, hes not really rosterable depending on league size. 

If I was not in a short bench league I would have drafted him or put in a claim this week, but I would have had to drop Godwin or Jimmy G. 

In my dynasty league I'm very mad at myself for dropping him briefly for another flier. Everytime I see this thread I think how I could use him on my team because I am thin at rb.

I just think expectations are a little out of control after a 15 carry game. but certainly encouraging for his owners. 

 

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