RB Sony Michel (1 Viewer)

[jdoggydogg]

I saw what I saw on Sunday. The OL opened up some really big holes.

Michel isn't going to be Todd Gurley - not on this team. But he's going to be good enough to start most weeks - and that's what owners need. 

 

[jdoggydogg]

He looks damn good.

The thing I like is he's delivering blows at the end of his runs. He's not fun to tackle, and that works in his favor. 

 

[TripItUp]

I really want to bump posts from the preseason in this thread, but I'll resist.  

Hopefully people were paying attention to my "league winner" posts from the preseason and were  ignoring the naysayers.

 

[tangfoot]

I really want to bump posts from the preseason in this thread, but I'll resist.  

Hopefully people were paying attention to my "league winner" posts from the preseason and were  ignoring the naysayers.

League winners aren’t crowned in October, but he’s off to a better start than I was expecting. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm a pro-Sony guy and went and got him in several leagues, but the pre-mature "I told you so"s in this thread are a little out of hand.  He really lucked out with most of his competition getting hurt which was by far the biggest obstacle the doubters were concerned about so that was a real freebie on that front.  As far as his actual performance he's had one game where he looked bad, and one game where he looked OK running through giant holes, and on top of that he's looked poor as a receiver and they seem to have abandoned him on that front.

I am excited that it looks like I'll be able to start him confidently in my RB2 slot the rest of the way, but let's not pretend he just ran out there and looked so amazing that New England couldn't help but sit everyone else on the bench and find ways to get him the ball.

 

[ahartig]

Here is some nice analysis of his week 4 performance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa0i2wv7xls

 

[Bronco Billy]

I really want to bump posts from the preseason in this thread, but I'll resist.  

Hopefully people were paying attention to my "league winner" posts from the preseason and were  ignoring the naysayers.

Geez.  That’s some pretty serious self-aggrandizement for one decent game from a guy barely averaging 4 ypc and not involved in the passing game on a team where the passing game drives everything.

You may be right in the long run, but you might want to ease up a bit before you end up with a rotator cuff injury.

 

[Iceman03]

I'm a pro-Sony guy and went and got him in several leagues, but the pre-mature "I told you so"s in this thread are a little out of hand.  He really lucked out with most of his competition getting hurt which was by far the biggest obstacle the doubters were concerned about so that was a real freebie on that front.  As far as his actual performance he's had one game where he looked bad, and one game where he looked OK running through giant holes, and on top of that he's looked poor as a receiver and they seem to have abandoned him on that front.

I am excited that it looks like I'll be able to start him confidently in my RB2 slot the rest of the way, but let's not pretend he just ran out there and looked so amazing that New England couldn't help but sit everyone else on the bench and find ways to get him the ball.

Who cares? Nick Chubb looked amazing and got three snaps. Aaron Jones looks amazing and splits three ways. People are ####ting all over the Seahawks for taking Penny over a litany of other positions and they play him behind Mike Davis without a care. Coaches are irrational and dumb. That includes BB, who benched his top DB in the Super Bowl. By hook or by crook. No/little competition is a good thing for fantasy players.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Here is some nice analysis of his week 4 performance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa0i2wv7xls

I think Harris has it right:

Michel didn't display brilliant talent last week. But he had the workload and the blocking you need for a RB to succeed.

 

[jdoggydogg]

That’s some pretty serious self-aggrandizement for one decent game from a guy barely averaging 4 ypc

Yards per carry is not a stat that NFL experts use to assess talent. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Yards per carry is not a stat that NFL experts use to assess talent. 

Care to provide some documentation to support your position?

 

[jdoggydogg]

Care to provide some documentation to support your position?

No problem:

6 NFL Stats Fans and Media Don't Understand

Dwindling yards per carry show there's a 21st-century RB dilemma

 

[rockaction]

I thought he looked good and ran hard between the tackles and that Rotoworld was right for once: They stacked the line/box knowing NE would run up at least twenty. 

His first four carries went for 36, IIRC. When they weren't script-dependent (not coach script, but game script) he looked darn good.  

 

[Bronco Billy]

No problem:

6 NFL Stats Fans and Media Don't Understand

Dwindling yards per carry show there's a 21st-century RB dilemma

You understand that those are opinions, right?  Football Outsiders and Advanced Football Analytics both use ypc as part of their baseline for their analyses, and I guess we could consider them NFL statistical experts, don’t you think?

 

[jdoggydogg]

You understand that those are opinions, right?  Football Outsiders and Advanced Football Analytics both use ypc as part of their baseline for their analyses, and I guess we could consider them NFL statistical experts, don’t you think?

Yes, I do understand what opinions are. Chris Harris talks about YPC being nonsense. That's where I first heard this. I'm not saying Harris means the end of the discussion, but he's a lot smarter than I am about football so I trust him.

Did you read the articles? Pretty interesting:

Rushing Yards Per Carry

There are a lot of myths still associated with the running game, especially in today’s NFL.

But one of the stats that should be a good indicator of effectiveness is rushing yards per carry (YPC). Passing yards per attempt works well for passing, so why doesn’t the mathematical equivalent for rushing work, too?

The problem is most runs in the NFL are gains of two to four yards, and the YPC number is inflated by those rare, long runs. A long run is great for an offense, but it can only help you on that one drive.

This is why rushing YPC has a poor correlation with winning (0.17 since 1970).

Since the merger, 24 teams have averaged over 5.0 YPC for the season. Out of the 24, 14 failed to make the playoffs, including nine of the top 13 teams.

Of the top 15 teams in rushing YPC, only the 1998 San Francisco 49erswon a playoff game. That of course was the game where Jerry Rice fumbled the ball on the final drive, but the referees missed it. Then Steve Young found Terrell Owens for the game-winning touchdown with three seconds left. Talk about a fortunate win.

The 2011 Carolina Panthers (No. 4) and Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) are among the two greatest teams ever in rushing YPC. Combined, they won nine games.

The rushing stat that best correlates with winning is the number of carries themselves. The reason is simple: Teams with the lead run out the clock, piling up the carries and getting the win. Throw in a few kneel downs at the end for extra carry stat-padding.

You can have a great day running with over 5.0 or even 6.0 YPC but if you do that on 20 or fewer carries, your team only wins about 8.2 percent of the games.

How about averaging less than 3.0 YPC? That sounds like a horribly ineffective day on the ground. Since 1970, teams that carry the ball at least 30 times with less than 3.0 YPC have won 77.4 percent of those games. Plus, all 32 teams have a winning record in such games.

Still, experts, especially those that were former running backs, get this twisted all the time, thinking the carries cause the winning, when the opposite is true.

Perhaps the most useless stat in football is “RB X’s team is [insert great record] when he gets at least 20 carries.” Of course. It has nothing to do with the quality of that running back, but everything to do with the game situation.

I caught Mark Kriegel on the second episode of NFL A.M. using the stat for DeMarco Murray. Out of 194 running backs with at least 10 career games of 20 or more carries, 179 of them had a winning record. Murray’s not special.

A team's record with a running back logging at least 20 carries may be the only rushing stat more useless than rushing YPC.

 

[Nucker101]

I'm a pro-Sony guy and went and got him in several leagues, but the pre-mature "I told you so"s in this thread are a little out of hand.  He really lucked out with most of his competition getting hurt which was by far the biggest obstacle the doubters were concerned about so that was a real freebie on that front.  As far as his actual performance he's had one game where he looked bad, and one game where he looked OK running through giant holes, and on top of that he's looked poor as a receiver and they seem to have abandoned him on that front.

I am excited that it looks like I'll be able to start him confidently in my RB2 slot the rest of the way, but let's not pretend he just ran out there and looked so amazing that New England couldn't help but sit everyone else on the bench and find ways to get him the ball.

To be fair, some of the appeal in drafting Michel was that Burkhead's durability was a concern. Not that Michel didn't have his own red flags either.

I drafted both he and Burkhead in a few leagues, hoping to squeeze out RB2 numbers once some dust settled or during weeks when one of them was out with an injury. 

I'm not really sure if this is a great sell high opportunity or a strong hold situation now. The while Gillislee/Burkhead situation last year scares the hell outta me, especially if NE signs.

Anyone receiving or sending out offers for Michel in redraft leagues? Just trying to gauge his value right now since I'm tempted to sell high.

 

[Blick]

To be fair, some of the appeal in drafting Michel was that Burkhead's durability was a concern. Not that Michel didn't have his own red flags either.

I drafted both he and Burkhead in a few leagues, hoping to squeeze out RB2 numbers once some dust settled or during weeks when one of them was out with an injury. 

I'm not really sure if this is a great sell high opportunity or a strong hold situation now. The while Gillislee/Burkhead situation last year scares the hell outta me, especially if NE signs.

Anyone receiving or sending out offers for Michel in redraft leagues? Just trying to gauge his value right now since I'm tempted to sell high.

His Ingram for my Michel. I accepted, but had to think about it. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Yes, I do understand what opinions are. Chris Harris talks about YPC being nonsense. That's where I first heard this. I'm not saying Harris means the end of the discussion, but he's a lot smarter than I am about football so I trust him.

Did you read the articles? Pretty interesting:

I’m not going to get too far into this debate because it’s removed from the topic, but let’s use an iota of common sense.  Below are a list of 2017 RBs from Pro Football Reference based upon ypc.  Which group of 10 RBs would you consider successful and which group is, shall we say, somewhat less successful?  You tell me.  I could do the same for plenty of other years.  Just noticed - obviously ignore Cam... :duh:  quick c&p

1Alvin Kamara*

2Cam Newton

3Dion Lewis

4Kareem Hunt*

5Mark Ingram*

6Kenyan Drake

7Alfred Morris

8Todd Gurley*+

9Alex Collins

10Devonta Freeman

**************

39DeMarco Murray

40Jamaal Williams

41Kerwynn Williams

42Joe Mixon

43Jonathan Stewart

44Samaje Perine

45Adrian Peterson

46Chris Ivory

47Ameer Abdullah

48Doug Martin

.

 

[travdogg]

Who cares? Nick Chubb looked amazing and got three snaps. Aaron Jones looks amazing and splits three ways. People are ####ting all over the Seahawks for taking Penny over a litany of other positions and they play him behind Mike Davis without a care. Coaches are irrational and dumb. That includes BB, who benched his top DB in the Super Bowl. By hook or by crook. No/little competition is a good thing for fantasy players.

While I agree it was a mistake to bench Butler, best DB is silly. He was the worst starter in their secondary, and that has bled over to him being the worst starter in the Titans secondary this year. 

 

[jdoggydogg]

I’m not going to get too far into this debate because it’s removed from the topic, but let’s use an iota of common sense.  Below are a list of 2017 RBs from Pro Football Reference based upon ypc.  Which group of 10 RBs would you consider successful and which group is, shall we say, somewhat less successful?  You tell me.  I could do the same for plenty of other years.  Just noticed - obviously ignore Cam... :duh:  quick c&p

I think Harris would say that people use YPC as a reason why a bench scat back is better than the starter - when there are several factors that make a good RB. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

I think Harris would say that people use YPC as a reason why a bench scat back is better than the starter - when there are several factors that make a good RB. 

No one is claiming that ypc is the only stat that should be used to evaluate a RB.  But it certainly is very useful when combined with other data.  I believe most FFers (and NFL experts) understand the difference between a bellcow and a 3rd down RB and how ypc can be affected in those cases.

 

[Sir Psycho]

To be fair, some of the appeal in drafting Michel was that Burkhead's durability was a concern. Not that Michel didn't have his own red flags either.

I drafted both he and Burkhead in a few leagues, hoping to squeeze out RB2 numbers once some dust settled or during weeks when one of them was out with an injury. 

I'm not really sure if this is a great sell high opportunity or a strong hold situation now. The while Gillislee/Burkhead situation last year scares the hell outta me, especially if NE signs.

Anyone receiving or sending out offers for Michel in redraft leagues? Just trying to gauge his value right now since I'm tempted to sell high.

Got an offer for Michel and D Watson (already have Mahomes) for David Johnson and R Wilson.

 

[Ilov80s]

Sony Michel has 40 career carries. We don't need articles from analysts or mathematicians to know that his ypc has no predictive value right now. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Sony Michel has 40 career carries. We don't need articles from analysts or mathematicians to know that his ypc has no predictive value right now. 

49 carries, actually.  And in an offense that is very RB friendly in that it forces Ds to overload against the pass both in scheme and posture.  That you feel it has absolutely no value doesn’t make it so.  It should be part of the ongoing evaluation for open minded people.

 

[pmark]

Got an offer for Michel and D Watson (already have Mahomes) for David Johnson and R Wilson.

I hope you accepted that deal.  I like Michel, but Michel for David Johnson is a no brainer.

 

[Ilov80s]

49 carries, actually.  And in an offense that is very RB friendly in that it forces Ds to overload against the pass both in scheme and posture.  That you feel it has absolutely no value doesn’t make it so.  It should be part of the ongoing evaluation for open minded people.

Their passing attack hasn't been scaring anyone this year but that is besides the point. 49 rushes and an average YPC is meaningless for predicting future success or failure. It's just mathematically meaningless. 

 

[nelly29]

Sorry guys I have to start Sony tonight.....My 0-4 team has chewed up and spit out everyone it has touched (Cook,Fournette,Hilton) I apologize in advance!

:(

 

[Bronco Billy]

Their passing attack hasn't been scaring anyone this year but that is besides the point. 49 rushes and an average YPC is meaningless for predicting future success or failure. It's just mathematically meaningless. 

Percent that opponents played nickel/dime Ds against NE this year:

Week 1 HOU 24%

Week 2 JAX 100%

Week 3 DET 83%

Week 4 MIA 52%

Guess that’s meaningless too since it doesn’t fit your position.

 

[Ilov80s]

Percent that opponents played nickel/dime Ds against NE this year:

Week 1 HOU 24%

Week 2 JAX 100%

Week 3 DET 83%

Week 4 MIA 52%

Guess that’s meaningless too since it doesn’t fit your position.

That is 64% which was was basically the league average last year. 

But that has nothing to do with my argument. I don't even have an argument. I am just telling you what math says. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Percent that opponents played nickel/dime Ds against NE this year:

Week 1 HOU 24%

Week 2 JAX 100%

Week 3 DET 83%

Week 4 MIA 52%

Guess that’s meaningless too since it doesn’t fit your position.

He had 10 carries in Week 2 against one of the leagues best defenses coming off a knee surgery and has looked better each subsequent week. I really think you're fighting a losing battle here and I'm kind of surprised it's one your waging because generally you're pretty level headed. I know that you must realize that ypc really is meaningless in such a small sample size. One long run where he was untouched with a huge hole and it would jump to over 5 - would that be meaningful?

 

[Ilov80s]

He had 10 carries in Week 2 against one of the leagues best defenses coming off a knee surgery and has looked better each subsequent week. I really think you're fighting a losing battle here and I'm kind of surprised it's one your waging because generally you're pretty level headed. I know that you must realize that ypc really is meaningless in such a small sample size. One long run where he was untouched with a huge hole and it would jump to over 5 - would that be meaningful?

If he runs for a 1 yard TD on his next carry, he will be down to 3.94 and then I will start to panic on him. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

He had 10 carries in Week 2 against one of the leagues best defenses coming off a knee surgery and has looked better each subsequent week. I really think you're fighting a losing battle here and I'm kind of surprised it's one your waging because generally you're pretty level headed. I know that you must realize that ypc really is meaningless in such a small sample size. One long run where he was untouched with a huge hole and it would jump to over 5 - would that be meaningful?

I’m saying that so far he’s hasn’t performed any better than your average run-of-the-mill 1st/2nd down RB.  That’s always subject to change as he builds up more evidence, but as of now he hasn’t been an elite RB as some want to portray him.  To simply ignore data when the data exists smacks of subjective rather than objective evaluation.

I have no dog in this hunt and was a casual observer of this thread until he was portrayed as some kind of uber-RB who will win FF leagues.  Nothing in his regular season performance to date supports that.  But again, that is subject to change as we move forth in the season.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I’m saying that so far he’s hasn’t performed any better than your average run-of-the-mill 1st/2nd down RB.  That’s always subject to change as he builds up more evidence, but as of now he hasn’t been an elite RB as some want to portray him.  To simply ignore data when the data exists smacks of subjective rather than objective evaluation.

Well I do agree with the bolded. He actually looked terrible in Week 2, not so good in Week 3, and pretty good in Week 4. So all in all he's been nothing special.

However it's simply math as far as the ypc argument goes, and that's all I was really pointing out. @Ilov80s statement was correct his ypc is statistically meaningless at this point.

The book is not written on Michel one way or the other yet but his arrow is trending up looking at his performance and certainly as far as his opportunity goes.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Well I do agree with the bolded. He actually looked terrible in Week 2, not so good in Week 3, and pretty good in Week 4. So all in all he's been nothing special.

However it's simply math as far as the ypc argument goes, and that's all I was really pointing out. @Ilov80s statement was correct his ypc is statistically meaningless at this point.

The book is not written on Michel one way or the other yet but his arrow is trending up looking at his performance and certainly as far as his opportunity goes.

Well, I guess the only point we disagree on is the data being meaningless.  Large databases are made up of a collection of smaller databases. When all you have is a smaller database, you recognize it as such - but that doesn’t make it meaningless.  It’s just all that you have to work with until more data accumulates.  I’ve been saying all along that the data can change as it compiles, but to simply dismiss the data outright shouldn’t happen.  IMO.

 

[Ilov80s]

Well, I guess the only point we disagree on is the data being meaningless.  Large databases are made up of a collection of smaller databases. When all you have is a smaller database, you recognize it as such - but that doesn’t make it meaningless.  It’s just all that you have to work with until more data accumulates.  I’ve been saying all along that the data can change as it compiles, but to simply dismiss the data outright shouldn’t happen.  IMO.

The bold is like saying Bill Gates isn't really rich, he just has lots of 1 dollar bills.

I am not saying the data is totally meaningless, but just that it's descriptive not predictive. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

The bold is like saying Bill Gates isn't really rich, he just has lots of 1 dollar bills.

So, using your hyperbole as having some kind of import, you are expecting Michel to finish his career with somewhere around 4 Trillion carries?

If you use the Gates analogy for where Michel might be in his career, then yeah I’d say it might be somewhat relevant to see how Gates earned his first $5M.

In any case, I’m done debating this.  My opinion will remain fluid as more data accumulates, and I guess you’ll let us know some time in the future when Michel hits a point in his career where we can actually use the data to evaluate him.

 

[ty247]

Are people seeing 'special' in Sony?

I've got to be honest I'm not seeing it but I hope I'm wrong.

If someone can direct me to some game tape that shows glimpse of it, please I'd love to see..

 

[ahartig]

Are people seeing 'special' in Sony?

I've got to be honest I'm not seeing it but I hope I'm wrong.

If someone can direct me to some game tape that shows glimpse of it, please I'd love to see..

I think people are just saying he has a massive opportunity right now and he could be special....  He has not lit the world on fire yet, but he is a rookie that missed the entire pre-season.

Hell, Kamara didn't look that special last year weeks 1 through 4....and he was around for the entire pre-season also...I am in no way comparing Sony to Kamara talent wise, but the situation might be similiar.

But the facts remains:

• He looked like a damn special talent at Georgia
  
• Belichek believes in him (he is an OK coach)
  
• He is being given the opportunity (20+ touches)
  
• He is still getting adjusted to NFL speed and the offense
  
• NE offense is about to get way better with Edelman back and Gordon adapting
  
• He is the goal line back
  

The above is a recipe for massive fantasy production.... Let's see how tonight goes

 

[Man In The Box]

 

[avina1]

Are people seeing 'special' in Sony?

I've got to be honest I'm not seeing it but I hope I'm wrong.

If someone can direct me to some game tape that shows glimpse of it, please I'd love to see..

right now the only thing I'm not seeing from his college days are his speed, but I think that is because of his knee issue pre-season and perhaps lack of training. It may not come back fully this season but would be something to watch for next season.

 

[Mister CIA]

Not buying - 'cause I already bought.

Strong like.

 

[ahartig]

Great game. But hot damn white was in way more then I thought. They need to get Sony involved in the passing game more. 

 

[steelwind]

He should have had 2 TDs tonight but the point is he is their goal line back and will continue to carry the load.  He will improve week to week as I have seen him faster in college.  They are also giving him some pass plays.

 

[metoo]

I'd rather buy James White.

 

[Insein]

Couldn't get those last 2 yards!!! Oh well still a great night.

 

[rockaction]

He looked pretty good to me tonight. I'm glad I have him in one league, though I almost took White in another and am kicking myself for taking a Crowell/Powell combination instead.  

 

[Nucker101]

I'd rather buy James White.

I'm buying them both.

 

[Faust]

Sony Michel rushed 18 times for 98 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' Week 5 win over the Colts, adding a 12-yard reception.

Michel fell just short of his second-straight 100-yard day on the ground, though he now has 222 yards from scrimmage over his past two games. The Pats were so confident in Michel heading into tonight that they dressed only two running backs. Michel could have had a second score but was stymied on back-to-back goal line runs in the second quarter. He appeared to clear the plane on the second, but the Pats went hurry up and ran a quarterback sneak in lieu of a review. A locked-in RB2, Michel is on an RB1 trajectory. He gets the Chiefs' soft run defense in Week 6.

Oct 4 - 11:42 PM

 

[Bronco Billy]

Still not involved in the passing game, but given his workload it’s nice to see that long run.  He looks like he’s trending up a bit.

 

[rockaction]

Still not involved in the passing game, but given his workload it’s nice to see that long run.  He looks like he’s trending up a bit.

Yeah, he is. That's 5 YPC tonight (I'm not entering the debate about that, merely pointing it out).

White rushed two times for zero yards. The sort of workload he's getting isn't sustainable at that rate b/c LBs will just key on him when he's in the game. It's a good thing tonight that the Colts were missing theirs, or the story is different.