RB Targets for Upside Down Draft (1 Viewer)

[kyoun1e]

There seems to be a lot of interest in the upside down strategy this year due to uncertainty of early round RBs, availability of elite QBs/TEs early, and supply of WRs in the middle rounds. As I execute this strategy in mocks, it's clear that success using this strategy is dependant on nailing the middle round RB selections.

Assuming 12 teams, PPR, standard scoring otherwise, I see three critical tiers:

Tier 1:

1. W. McGahee

2. P. Hillis

3. K. Smith

4. D. Brown

5. S. Ridley

6. J. Stewart

Usually, this cast is starting to go in round 5, especially McGahee. I'm usually waiting to round 6 in order to hopefully see one fall to me. Would be curious to hear how folks are ranking these guys and for what reasons and if they are targeting round 6 or ensuring they grab one of the above in round 5.

Tier 2:

1. J. Rodgers -- Bloom recommends round 8 target per his recent article.

2. D. Wilson -- Ditto.

3. Ryan Williams

4. M. Ingram

5. M. Bush

6. B. Tate

7. CJ Spiller

8. D. Williams

In mocks, after I grab a RB 2 in tier 1, I'm usually using RD 7 to secure another WR -- T. Smith, E. Decker, P. Garcon, R. Wayne, and T. Young are just too juicy to pass up. That leaves round 8 as a target to start stockpiling RBs again. ADP has J. Rodgers going later, but feel like he needs to go up the board. Spiller is sometimes going earlier...just can't reach for him up in the Hillis tier.

Tier 3:

Usually thinking about these guys in round 10 or after:

1. E. Royster

2. C. Benson -- tempted to put him in tier 2, but don't think my leaguemates will reach.

3. R. Jennings

4. M. Leshore

5. R. Hillman

6. P. Thomas

7. D. Thomas

8. K. Hunter

9. S. Vereen

10. I. Pead

11. B. Powell

12. R. Brown

Using the above strategy in mocks, I usually end up with the following starting with #5 pick:

QB: A. Rodgers/Brady/Brees

RB 1: F. Jackson (if I'm lucky in the third, D. Martin/Sproles if not). Somebody usually slips here.

RB 2: K. Smith or D. Brown. Feel like this is the greatest risk in the tiers. Sometimes...they're ALL gone.

WR 1: P. Harvin/S. Smith/Colston

WR 2: A. Brown

WR 3: T. Smith/E. Decker/R. Wayne

TE 1: J. Graham or R. Gronkowski

* Note: In my league I can go 1RB/4WR or 1RB/3WR/2TE...makes upside down drafting very appealing.

In any case, I'm wondering if if the upside down drafters are approaching their RB targets the same way, how they're ranking these RBs in the tiers, or if they're seeing any recent trends that could blow up their approach.

Thanks.

KY

 

[doeseatplace]

This is how it went down in our 14-team, 2 ppr draft. I followed this strategy and ended up with Fitz, Marshall, Colston and Hernandez. Shonn Greene fell to me at 5.14, and as much as I don't like him and the Jets situation, the opportunity was hard to pass on. Lynch actually stuck around until 5.13. BJGE went off board at 6.09 and Beanie Wells lasted til 8.071. W. McGahee--6.01 (me)2. P. Hillis--7.023. K. Smith--6.034. D. Brown--7.05 (no love for the Donald)5. S. Ridley--6.126. J. Stewart--5.03 (Panther homer's 1st RB)Tier 2:1. J. Rodgers -- Bloom recommends round 8 target per his recent article.--9.102. D. Wilson -- Ditto.--6.13 (we are in Va Tech country)3. Ryan Williams--9.14 (me)4. M. Ingram--7.135. M. Bush--8.046. B. Tate--7.017. CJ Spiller--6.148. D. Williams--7.08Tier 3:Usually thinking about these guys in round 10 or after:1. E. Royster--9.072. C. Benson -- tempted to put him in tier 2, but don't think my leaguemates will reach.--went high at 6.06, so you may want to bump him3. R. Jennings--9.054. M. Leshore--13.055. R. Hillman--11.086. P. Thomas--7.14 (me)7. D. Thomas--12.128. K. Hunter--11.129. S. Vereen--11.0410. I. Pead--11.0211. B. Powell--14.01 (me)12. R. Brown--10.11

There seems to be a lot of interest in the upside down strategy this year due to uncertainty of early round RBs, availability of elite QBs/TEs early, and supply of WRs in the middle rounds. As I execute this strategy in mocks, it's clear that success using this strategy is dependant on nailing the middle round RB selections. Assuming 12 teams, PPR, standard scoring otherwise, I see three critical tiers:Tier 1:1. W. McGahee2. P. Hillis3. K. Smith4. D. Brown5. S. Ridley6. J. StewartUsually, this cast is starting to go in round 5, especially McGahee. I'm usually waiting to round 6 in order to hopefully see one fall to me. Would be curious to hear how folks are ranking these guys and for what reasons and if they are targeting round 6 or ensuring they grab one of the above in round 5. Tier 2:1. J. Rodgers -- Bloom recommends round 8 target per his recent article.2. D. Wilson -- Ditto.3. Ryan Williams4. M. Ingram5. M. Bush6. B. Tate7. CJ Spiller8. D. WilliamsIn mocks, after I grab a RB 2 in tier 1, I'm usually using RD 7 to secure another WR -- T. Smith, E. Decker, P. Garcon, R. Wayne, and T. Young are just too juicy to pass up. That leaves round 8 as a target to start stockpiling RBs again. ADP has J. Rodgers going later, but feel like he needs to go up the board. Spiller is sometimes going earlier...just can't reach for him up in the Hillis tier.Tier 3:Usually thinking about these guys in round 10 or after:1. E. Royster2. C. Benson -- tempted to put him in tier 2, but don't think my leaguemates will reach.3. R. Jennings4. M. Leshore5. R. Hillman6. P. Thomas7. D. Thomas8. K. Hunter9. S. Vereen10. I. Pead11. B. Powell12. R. BrownUsing the above strategy in mocks, I usually end up with the following starting with #5 pick:QB: A. Rodgers/Brady/BreesRB 1: F. Jackson (if I'm lucky in the third, D. Martin/Sproles if not). Somebody usually slips here.RB 2: K. Smith or D. Brown. Feel like this is the greatest risk in the tiers. Sometimes...they're ALL gone.WR 1: P. Harvin/S. Smith/ColstonWR 2: A. BrownWR 3: T. Smith/E. Decker/R. WayneTE 1: J. Graham or R. Gronkowski* Note: In my league I can go 1RB/4WR or 1RB/3WR/2TE...makes upside down drafting very appealing.In any case, I'm wondering if if the upside down drafters are approaching their RB targets the same way, how they're ranking these RBs in the tiers, or if they're seeing any recent trends that could blow up their approach.Thanks.KY

 

[kyoun1e]

Does,

Some thoughts:

Tier 1

* D. Brown -- I could see the same lack of love for D. Brown in my league. I may bump him down a couple notches and up Ridley...I'm in the Northeast...could see Ridley actually jumping to the 5th.

* W. MacGahee -- I really don't get him consistently being a) drafted as the #1 option in this tier, and b) usually drafted as much as a round above the rest. A head scratcher for me. And reason why I usually pass.

Tier 2

* D. Wilson -- Yeah, after the last game this guy is jumping up the board. Tempted to jump him up to tier 1 due to his potential in a high scoring offense.

* J. Rodgers & R. Williams -- they're going lower than Ingram/Bush/Tate, but for some reason I'm ranking them higher. I can't stop drooling over Rodgers in the ATL offense so I'm loathe to push him lower. Ryan Williams on the other hand...that offensive line worries me. May lower below Ingram/Bush/Tate. ADP would indicate that's a safe move.

Tier 3

* Benson -- Yikes. His ADP may be on the move. Hoping the latest ADP info comes out today/tmrw before my real draft.

* P. Thomas -- why you taking Pierre so high? Especially with an ADP north of 120?

Thanks for the feedback.

KY

 

[doeseatplace]

I am actually having some buyers remorse on McGahee, and probably should have jumped on Ingram. Willis' rushing stats will be down (or he may break down), but I'm hoping he reverts to pre-Tebow form and adds more receptions, and serves as Peyton's Addai in DenverI was very tempted by Jacquizz but someone grabbed him ahead of me, so you should bump him...he will be good. I share the team with my Dad, who went to Va Tech, so had to spot him some Hokies.As for Thomas, he is a guy who is regularly on my team and I wanted to buy into some piece of NOS running game. He catches passes (we award 2/rec), and we have a scoring quirk that provides bonus pts for yards/carry after 7 carries. So if Thomas notches something 8 rushes for 50 yds (which he did frequently last year), that's 16 fantasy points + any catches he may get. So he's more of a system guy for our league; otherwise the NOS backfield is tough to translate save Sproles

Does,Some thoughts:Tier 1* D. Brown -- I could see the same lack of love for D. Brown in my league. I may bump him down a couple notches and up Ridley...I'm in the Northeast...could see Ridley actually jumping to the 5th.* W. MacGahee -- I really don't get him consistently being a) drafted as the #1 option in this tier, and b) usually drafted as much as a round above the rest. A head scratcher for me. And reason why I usually pass.Tier 2* D. Wilson -- Yeah, after the last game this guy is jumping up the board. Tempted to jump him up to tier 1 due to his potential in a high scoring offense. * J. Rodgers & R. Williams -- they're going lower than Ingram/Bush/Tate, but for some reason I'm ranking them higher. I can't stop drooling over Rodgers in the ATL offense so I'm loathe to push him lower. Ryan Williams on the other hand...that offensive line worries me. May lower below Ingram/Bush/Tate. ADP would indicate that's a safe move.Tier 3* Benson -- Yikes. His ADP may be on the move. Hoping the latest ADP info comes out today/tmrw before my real draft. * P. Thomas -- why you taking Pierre so high? Especially with an ADP north of 120?Thanks for the feedback. KY

 

[rascal]

Benson is going way sooner than that. He was taken in the 7th in my 10 team league (no-TE requirement).