RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (1 Viewer)

[barackdhouse]

I'm all for dart throws on RBs in the later rounds, but I could see them drafting someone like Robinson, Gibbs, or Evans next year that would kill Allgeier's value.

I meant redraft. For dynasty yeah he could easily be replaced. If he even becomes relevant in the first place. Mike Davis was going 4th 5th in redraft last year.

 

[ryno1980]

In fact, I'd argue that if Allgeier is good this year, he's pretty unlikely to get replaced. If he sucks, maybe they prioritize rb in the draft, maybe not.  But if he's any good, they're more likely to use early round draft picks on their many other needs and see what he can do in year two.  They're more likely to replace Cordarelle as the lightning in the backfield than to go after a bell cow. 

Agree with the entire post but this especially is why I targeted Allgeier. 
I think they look for a 3rd-4th round back that’s more of a 3rd down complement. Team with so many needs to spend first/2nd round draft capital on a RB. 

 

[Faust]

'Guys have to make a business decision when they have to tackle him:' How the Falcons decided on Tyler Allgeier in 2022 NFL Draft

 

[bostonfred]

'Guys have to make a business decision when they have to tackle him:' How the Falcons decided on Tyler Allgeier in 2022 NFL Draft

This is a total puff piece but it's exactly what i like about him.  And it's nice to hear them talk about the role they see for him as their closer. I think he's going to get volume.  

 

[Faust]

ESPN's Michael Rothstein writes that RB Tyler Allgeier is expected to be one of the top two backs on the Atlanta depth chart.

This meshes with what we've seen so far, but it's good for Allgeier's fantasy stock that Damien Williams and Quadree Ollison are regarded more as fighting to make the roster than as actual candidates for the backup job. Allgeier is behind Cordarrelle Patterson, who has never rushed more than 153 times in a season and is entering his age-31 season. Allgeier seems like a good bet to get work at some point this year, but how fantasy-interesting will that volume be on what looks to be a rough Atlanta offense?

SOURCE: ESPN

Jun 21, 2022, 3:21 PM ET

 

[TripItUp]

That snippet is a pretty good summary of how I feel about Allgeier this year.

 

[rockaction]

Volume is king. If he gets enough volume, he'll produce points regardless of how effective the offense is. See: Robinson, James

 

[TripItUp]

Volume is king. If he gets enough volume, he'll produce points regardless of how effective the offense is. See: Robinson, James

I mean, he still needs to be effective as a runner which is TBD by most accounts.

 

[rockaction]

I mean, he still needs to be effective as a runner which is TBD by most accounts.

Yes, but not as much as you think. He needs to be effective enough to keep his job. Volume is still king. If he averages 3.4 a carry as opposed to 4.2, it will be a negligible difference in production as long as he holds off competition for touches on his own team. Running backs are mostly all volume, and volume means beating out your teammates. 

Now, once you get in the top tier of backs like a Taylor or Henry, then yes, performance and efficiency per touch is important, but for almost everybody, it's volume. 

 

[bostonfred]

Yes, but not as much as you think. He needs to be effective enough to keep his job. Volume is still king. If he averages 3.4 a carry as opposed to 4.2, it will be a negligible difference in production as long as he holds off competition for touches on his own team. Running backs are mostly all volume, and volume means beating out your teammates. 

Now, once you get in the top tier of backs like a Taylor or Henry, then yes, performance and efficiency per touch is important, but for almost everybody, it's volume. 

Mike Davis averaged 3.6 last year and his agent's phone started ringing about as soon as Allgeier's hung up on draft day

 

[rockaction]

Mike Davis averaged 3.6 last year and his agent's phone started ringing about as soon as Allgeier's hung up on draft day

Sure, you want the guy to be effective so that he holds his job. Think of what I'm saying as a broad-based comment with an absolute. The absolute is that volume is king in FF. Now, volume might get determined by effectiveness, so you want your guy to be great, but if you hand somebody the ball 250 times a year, he's going to be an RB2 at least, even if he stinks. And all Allgeier has right now is Patterson in his way. 

Still not sold on Allgeier long-term, but if they use Patterson how I think they will, Allgeier will get plenty of run, effective or not. 

 

[barackdhouse]

I think the offense will be better this year. I think it will be difficult to scheme for Pitts/London/CPAT and even if Allgeier is JAG he will fit their need and get enough volume to be FF relevant. Hard for me to imagine they won't be better. Mariota doesn't have to light it up to put up points here. I don't think the quality of the offense should have any bearing on taking Allgeier or not. At his ADP he is probably a steal IMO.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

He's going to get a shot earlier than he would on probably most NFL teams.  But this isn't going to be an offense that puts up a lot of points.  They were at the bottom of the league with Ryan at QB last year and vibe seems to be that Ridder will get a shot at some point in the year, maybe earlier than you'd think for a 3rd rounder.

Feels like his 2022 ceiling is a guy who gets 10-12 touches/game on a low scoring offense.

 

[TheWinz]

He's going to get a shot earlier than he would on probably most NFL teams.  But this isn't going to be an offense that puts up a lot of points.  They were at the bottom of the league with Ryan at QB last year and vibe seems to be that Ridder will get a shot at some point in the year, maybe earlier than you'd think for a 3rd rounder.

Feels like his 2022 ceiling is a guy who gets 10-12 touches/game on a low scoring offense.

I know Cordarrelle got all the hype last season, but he was very much in a timeshare with Mike Davis.  The only reason we think Cordarrelle was a stud was his 11 TD's.  Otherwise:

Patterson - 473 snaps, 153 rushes, 52 catches
Davis - 594 snaps, 138 rushes, 44 catches

There were only 3 teams whose RB2 had more touches than Davis, and 2 were in known timeshares (Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon & Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon).  The third team was NYG, and Booker only out-touched Davis by 3 because Saquon missed 4 games.

I am providing all these numbers because I think there is a real chance for volume.  Cordarrelle's workload (which really wasn't alot) looks like it may have caught up with him at the end of last season.  After 13 weeks, he was RB6.  In the last 5 weeks, he could only muster 159 yards on 55 touches, and was RB43 (behind Mike Davis, who had 225 yards on 48 touches).

Mike Davis has moved on to BAL, and 30+ year old Cordarrelle remains.  Who else is there?
Qadree Ollison - A 5th round pick who's been on the team 3 years.
Damien Williams - IMO he was brought on as veteran depth, that's it
Avery Williams - A converted cornerback just trying to keep a roster spot
Caleb Huntley - UDFA getting a look in camp

If you are worried about the Falcons being a low scoring offense, don't be.  Cordarrelle finished as RB10 on a team that ranked 26th in scoring.  The year prior, James Robinson finished RB7 while JAX was 30th.  And before that, Leonard Fournette finished RB7 while JAX was 26th.

As has already been said, all you need for a RB is volume.  The numbers will follow.

 

[TS Garp]

Allgeier seems like the kind of back who could give you decent if unspectacular production if he has enough volume. With that said, he's playing for a bad team and running behind an objectively bad line. Not bottom 3 in the league but certainly bottom 10. He does have good blocking WR's, so that should help, but something else to keep in mind is the Falcons' schedule. Look at this start:

NO

@LAR

@SEA

CLE

@TB

SF

@CIN

CAR

LAC

It gets better after that for a couple of weeks but the defenses above are pretty stout for the most part and at least 5 of them have offenses that could put the Falcons in 2-3 touchdown deficits quickly.  Just not sure Allgeier will have the kind of positive game scripts that play to his strengths.

 

[TheWinz]

Allgeier seems like the kind of back who could give you decent if unspectacular production if he has enough volume. With that said, he's playing for a bad team and running behind an objectively bad line. Not bottom 3 in the league but certainly bottom 10. He does have good blocking WR's, so that should help, but something else to keep in mind is the Falcons' schedule. Look at this start:

Bolded below is how each team did vs fantasy RB's last year.  Sure, teams change from year to year, but you have to start somewhere:

NO - #3 vs RB's
@LAR - #11 vs RB's
@SEA - #31 vs RB's
CLE - #12 vs RB's
@TB - #9 vs RB's
SF - #17 vs RB's
@CIN - #23 vs RB's
CAR - #6 vs RB's
LAC - #26 vs RB's

The first 9 games look pretty middle-of-the-road.  Let's continue:

@CAR - #6 vs RB's
CHI - #8 vs RB's
@WAS - #15 vs RB's
PIT - #28 vs RB's
BYE
@NO - #3 vs RB's
@BAL - #14 vs RB's
ARI - #10 vs RB's
TB - #9 vs RB's

It gets better after that for a couple of weeks but the defenses above are pretty stout for the most part and at least 5 of them have offenses that could put the Falcons in 2-3 touchdown deficits quickly.  Just not sure Allgeier will have the kind of positive game scripts that play to his strengths.

Just by last year's numbers, his 2nd half of the season is tougher.  Still, the path to 200+ touches is well within reach.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I know Cordarrelle got all the hype last season, but he was very much in a timeshare with Mike Davis.  The only reason we think Cordarrelle was a stud was his 11 TD's.  Otherwise:

Patterson - 473 snaps, 153 rushes, 52 catches
Davis - 594 snaps, 138 rushes, 44 catches

There were only 3 teams whose RB2 had more touches than Davis, and 2 were in known timeshares (Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon & Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon).  The third team was NYG, and Booker only out-touched Davis by 3 because Saquon missed 4 games.

I am providing all these numbers because I think there is a real chance for volume.  Cordarrelle's workload (which really wasn't alot) looks like it may have caught up with him at the end of last season.  After 13 weeks, he was RB6.  In the last 5 weeks, he could only muster 159 yards on 55 touches, and was RB43 (behind Mike Davis, who had 225 yards on 48 touches).

Mike Davis has moved on to BAL, and 30+ year old Cordarrelle remains.  Who else is there?
Qadree Ollison - A 5th round pick who's been on the team 3 years.
Damien Williams - IMO he was brought on as veteran depth, that's it
Avery Williams - A converted cornerback just trying to keep a roster spot
Caleb Huntley - UDFA getting a look in camp

If you are worried about the Falcons being a low scoring offense, don't be.  Cordarrelle finished as RB10 on a team that ranked 26th in scoring.  The year prior, James Robinson finished RB7 while JAX was 30th.  And before that, Leonard Fournette finished RB7 while JAX was 26th.

As has already been said, all you need for a RB is volume.  The numbers will follow.

I think the fallacy of your stance is that the Falcons will treat the RB2 role with one guy from the seasons start.  I think that's a low percentage play.

A whole season volume load will require Allgeier to beat Williams out decisively for a role coming out of TC.  Patterson is clearly atop the depth chart now - plus his RB10 standing was aided by his 52/548/5 receiving line with Ryan at QB.  In a similar situation last year, Williams was RB2 to David Montgomery over Khalil Herbert coming out of TC limiting Herbert to 10 snaps the seasons first 4 weeks.  Herbert turned out to carve out a bigger role later in the season but still only garnered 117 touches overall and that was with Montgomery missing a month.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Allgeier seems like the kind of back who could give you decent if unspectacular production if he has enough volume. With that said, he's playing for a bad team and running behind an objectively bad line. Not bottom 3 in the league but certainly bottom 10. He does have good blocking WR's, so that should help, but something else to keep in mind is the Falcons' schedule. Look at this start:

NO

@LAR

@SEA

CLE

@TB

SF

@CIN

CAR

LAC

It gets better after that for a couple of weeks but the defenses above are pretty stout for the most part and at least 5 of them have offenses that could put the Falcons in 2-3 touchdown deficits quickly.  Just not sure Allgeier will have the kind of positive game scripts that play to his strengths.

That really doesn't seem all that daunting of a list to me. 

 

[menobrown]

That really doesn't seem all that daunting of a list to me. 

I think he's actually on to something.

If you judge strength of run defense as yards given up he'll face 5 teams, all ranked 3-7 last year in those first 9 games.

If you judge strength or run defense as yards per rush he'll face the number 1, 2, 5, 7, 9 and 11.

The only team he listed that was not included in one of those run defense rankings was the Chargers, who were one of the worst last year, but they along with a few of those other offenses have ability in theory to get Atlanta in a hole and away from the running game.

 

[bostonfred]

 Patterson is clearly atop the depth chart now

Is he?  I see Patterson as the change of pace/ third down back, and that's kind of the role he had last year.  Do you think he gets more than half of the carries?  More than the 153 he got last year?  

I think Atlanta would, in their ideal case, use Allgeier as the thunder and Patterson as the lightning. That doesn't mean he's good enough to actually do it, but I think that's what they want. 

I don't think they see Williams in that role at all - he's 30, coming off a 40 carry season, didn't play in 2020, and his high water marks for carries before that were 111 and 50.  They might mix Williams in more often if Allgeier isn't very good, but I don't see him as much more than a 5 touch a week guy.  

It's hard to project his touches because he's a day 3 pick and it seems wrong to project him for success. I think everyone is aware that he could be a total, worse than Mike Davis, can't beat out Damien Williams bust.  But what if he's actually good?  

Do you think 200 carries is possible if he's averaging 4.6 ypc?  I do. Atlanta was 29th in the league with 393 carries last year but IF they run better it makes sense that they'd run more, right?  Plus they may be protecting a rookie quarterback. 

Do you think he can get 8 touchdowns?  I do. Atlanta was 27th in the league in rushing touchdowns last year with 11, and Cordarelle got 6. Do you think they want Cordarelle getting over half their rushing touchdowns year IF Allgeier is playing well?   I don't.  

Do you think he can get 30 catches?  I do.  He was pretty good on screens and dump offs in college. 1-2 catches a week isn't a huge stretch.  

I think he has the potential to be a fantasy rb2. I think you're right to question whether he can reach that potential, and i think it's reasonable to cap his ceiling at rb2 numbers, but the reason he's an interesting prospect is that he is very cheap and has a clear path to production.

 

[TS Garp]

I think he's actually on to something.

If you judge strength of run defense as yards given up he'll face 5 teams, all ranked 3-7 last year in those first 9 games.

If you judge strength or run defense as yards per rush he'll face the number 1, 2, 5, 7, 9 and 11.

The only team he listed that was not included in one of those run defense rankings was the Chargers, who were one of the worst last year, but they along with a few of those other offenses have ability in theory to get Atlanta in a hole and away from the running game.

Exactly - thank you.  For the most part, the teams the Falcons play in this stretch either have very strong run defenses (and the Chargers should be significantly improved) and/or they can drop a lot of points on you quickly, creating negative game scripts for Allgeier (and probably positive ones for Patterson...).  I'd be more optimistic if he was starting the year with games against the Jaguars, Texans, Bears, etc.  But, as it is, I'm concerned that we'll see some 9/35 games.  He seems like the kind of back who could thrive on a team that runs a lot and has a good line. Put him on the Ravens and it's wheels up.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Is he?  I see Patterson as the change of pace/ third down back, and that's kind of the role he had last year.  Do you think he gets more than half of the carries?  More than the 153 he got last year?  

I'd say yes because of the versatility he gives to the offense.  And he's actually shown himself to be a pretty good RB.  Certainly he's not traditional, but you could see how much better he was than Davis pretty quickly. 

I don't think they see Williams in that role at all - he's 30, coming off a 40 carry season, didn't play in 2020, and his high water marks for carries before that were 111 and 50.  They might mix Williams in more often if Allgeier isn't very good, but I don't see him as much more than a 5 touch a week guy.  

Williams is a veteran stop gap for sure.  But he opted out of 2020 because of COVID and there was an established young starter in CHI last year.  He's not much more than capable.

One of the biggest mistakes I think that gets made this time of year is projecting Day 3 RB's to be solid FF options their rookie year.  Let's look at success stories over the past few years of Day 3 rookie RB's.

Michael Carter (4th -2021): 147/639/4 - 36/325/0
Rhamondre Stevenson (4th - 2021): 133/606/5 - 14/123/0
Kenneth Gainwell (5th - 2021): 68/291/5 - 33/253/1
Elijah Mitchell (6th - 2021): 207/963/5 - 19/137/1
Khalil Herbert (6th - 2021): 103/433/2 - 14/96/0
Joshua Kelley (4th - 2020): 111/354/2 - 23/148/0
Benny Snell (4th - 2019):108/426/2 - 3/23/0
Tony Pollard (4th - 2019): 86/455/2 - 15/107/1
Nyheim Hines (4th - 2018): 85/314/2 - 63/425/2
Tarik Cohen (4th - 2017): 87/370/2 - 53/353/1

...and on and on.  The most successful on this list is Mitchell and I'd argue the attribution of that to being a Shanahan family special in the mold of Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson et al, whose system unearths the type of later round talents regularly.

Probably the most recent success story of a Day 3 RB is that of Jordan Howard who in 2016 RBBC'ing with Matt Forte went 252/1313/6 - 29/298/1.

Point I'm making is that even with that 'success' list above, the list of who didn't do squat is much larger.  These guys last to Day 3 for a reason.  It isn't that there isn't talent there, it's just that more the most part, their skillset is limited enough to where the best they can really contribute is in that of a very specific role.
 

 

[bostonfred]

One of the biggest mistakes I think that gets made this time of year is projecting Day 3 RB's to be solid FF options their rookie year.  

See, I think it's a mistake to ignore low price, high volatility options. 

Elijah Mitchell was a 6th round pick and James Robinson was undrafted. Both were rb1s as rookies. 

Austin ekeler was undrafted.  Aaron Jones a 5th round pick.  

5th round rbs, on average, put up at least one startable season about 20 percent of the time. But that includes survivorship bias.  A lot of those guys were drafted to spots behind a strong incumbent where they were never going to start, or drafted into a specialist role. 

It stands to reason that you could improve that 20 percent to 40 or 50 by separating the guys with opportunity from the ones who don't have a path to start, but that's highly subjective.

There are three problems with that analysis. First, there were people who thought Cameron Artis-payne had a chance to eventually take over.  I don't think he ever had a chance.  People who draft based on their perception of talent might think Keontay Ingram has a chance to start. I don't think he's startable even if Conner gets hurt.  I might be wrong.  Subjective analysis is flawed so it is hard to give exact numbers. 

Second, some guys have opportunity and still suck. I'm looking at you, paul perkins.  Not every 5th round rb turns in to Aaron Jones, and not every one turns into perkins.  

Third, some of these guys don't have immediate opportunity or emerge later.  Ekeler and Aaron Jones both took time to become viable starters. Mitchell was drafted along side sermon and a lot of people left him for dead instead of seeing it as a camp competition. 

Interestingly, Mitchell's path was similar to Allgeier's. Drafted behind a career backup who had his first big year and got paid.  They brought in another guy. Veteran starter at qb who will likely give way to a rookie soon. Elite te and talented young wr1. 

There's nothing wrong with expecting a steep discount for a guy who has a <50 percent chance of being a good starter.  But you're getting that discount, both in redraft, and in dynasty.  I think it's a mistake to pooh pooh it.  

 

[Ilov80s]

@TheDirtyWord I agree with the premise there. We should never be counting on any of those players for production in fantasy.  However, these players are generally drafted in the double digit rounds when hit rates on any RB or WR are minuscule. Most of the players we draft in the double digit rounds will be dropped at some point in the season to make way for waiver wire adds.  Taking a backup rookie RB in round 12 is likely the same outcome as taking a team's aging veteran WR3 or a 2nd TE. 

 

[TheDirtyWord]

See, I think it's a mistake to ignore low price, high volatility options. 

Elijah Mitchell was a 6th round pick and James Robinson was undrafted. Both were rb1s as rookies. 

Austin ekeler was undrafted.  Aaron Jones a 5th round pick.  

5th round rbs, on average, put up at least one startable season about 20 percent of the time. But that includes survivorship bias.  A lot of those guys were drafted to spots behind a strong incumbent where they were never going to start, or drafted into a specialist role. 

It stands to reason that you could improve that 20 percent to 40 or 50 by separating the guys with opportunity from the ones who don't have a path to start, but that's highly subjective.

There are three problems with that analysis. First, there were people who thought Cameron Artis-payne had a chance to eventually take over.  I don't think he ever had a chance.  People who draft based on their perception of talent might think Keontay Ingram has a chance to start. I don't think he's startable even if Conner gets hurt.  I might be wrong.  Subjective analysis is flawed so it is hard to give exact numbers. 

Second, some guys have opportunity and still suck. I'm looking at you, paul perkins.  Not every 5th round rb turns in to Aaron Jones, and not every one turns into perkins.  

Third, some of these guys don't have immediate opportunity or emerge later.  Ekeler and Aaron Jones both took time to become viable starters. Mitchell was drafted along side sermon and a lot of people left him for dead instead of seeing it as a camp competition. 

Interestingly, Mitchell's path was similar to Allgeier's. Drafted behind a career backup who had his first big year and got paid.  They brought in another guy. Veteran starter at qb who will likely give way to a rookie soon. Elite te and talented young wr1. 

There's nothing wrong with expecting a steep discount for a guy who has a <50 percent chance of being a good starter.  But you're getting that discount, both in redraft, and in dynasty.  I think it's a mistake to pooh pooh it.  

And we may be talking different things...dynasty vs redraft.  In dynasty, the outlook obviously extends past 2022 and certainly Allgeier has a chance to turn out to be a good pro.  But in responding to a 200+ touches in 2022 comment...I find that highly unlikely.

Even including Aaron Jones rookie numbers 81/448/4 - 9/22/0.  Ekeler 47/260/2 - 27/279/3 while both turned out to be studs...their rookie years were nothing eye catching.  In year 2 PPR wise, Jones was drafted RB41 and Ekeler RB59 (according to FFCalc).

James Robinson had a great rookie year no doubt but his rookie year success was paved by a drastically changed situation in front of him at the start of the season when the Jags waived Fournette who was a known locker room #####.  And as I mentioned on Mitchell...the Shanahan family history of doing this with Day 3 RB's is well established - plus as you mentioned, Mostert's injury changed that landscape significantly as well.

I'm not saying there is a 0% chance.  And Damien Williams is the definition of surmountable obstacle.  But Allgeier was still the 12th RB drafted this year, likely for a reason.  Can crazy things happen where the Falcons HAVE to play Allgeier, of course.  But that same logic applies to D'Onta Foreman.  Maybe moreso.

To be fair, I'm sure people are looking at Allgeier as an RB5/6 in the draft.  So what's the harm.  

 

[TS Garp]

Interestingly, Mitchell's path was similar to Allgeier's. Drafted behind a career backup who had his first big year and got paid.  They brought in another guy. Veteran starter at qb who will likely give way to a rookie soon. Elite te and talented young wr1. 

I see where you're going but this feels like a true reach to me when you look at the team context/environment. The 49ers are one of the run-heaviest teams w/almost constant positive game scripts, had a great line, receiving weapons to keep defenses honest and Shanahan is an excellent play-designer. I take your point that Mitchell was a late pick but when he got his chance, he stepped into about as perfect of a situation as one could hope for, whereas Allgeier is coming into a situation where he'll be running behind a poor line, likely dealing w/negative game scripts, and he'll have a running QB who can steal goal-line touches. There will always be outliers and I think he can exceed a very low ADP but given the history for players drafted in this range and the team environment/context, his chances for a breakout season seem diminishingly low to me.

 

[Faust]

Which Falcons Rookie Has Gone ‘Under-the-Radar’?

The Falcons may have gotten a steal in the fifth round.

As the Atlanta Falcons rookie class reports to training camp today, many eyes will be on first-round pick Drake London or the unsigned quarterback Desmond Ridder.

However, according to NFL Network, there's another player that deserves attention.

Fifth-round rookie running back Tyler Allgeier is making a quiet ascent up Atlanta's depth chart and is expected to challenge veteran Cordarrelle Patterson for carries in the offense.

“The rookie to really keep your eye on is fifth-round draft pick running back Tyler Allgeier out of Bringham Young,” NFL Network said. “This is a player in his final two years out of BYU who had 2,700 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns. He can catch the ball. He can invade tackles and he’s got the big-play possibility. They have such high expectations out of him because, again, after selecting him in the fifth round, they cut last year’s starter Mike Davis who’s now with the Ravens."

“And as we know, head coach Arthur Smith, this whole offense, circulates around the ground game. Now they have a running back they feel can be the bell cow to get that going and to give some relief to Cordarrelle Patterson.”

According to ESPN, Allgeier is expected to be a top-2 running back in the offense behind Patterson. Patterson should be the starter after an electric 2021 season where he led the team in rushing yards and touchdowns, but his age presents opportunity for the 22-year-old to gain more touches.

Patterson has been pretty durable throughout his career, only missing two games in the first nine seasons in the NFL. But some relief was necessary. And now that the season is inching closer, Allgeier will get to slowly move onto everybody's radar.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The Falcons may have gotten a steal in the fifth round.

“And as we know, head coach Arthur Smith, this whole offense, circulates around the ground game. Now they have a running back they feel can be the bell cow to get that going and to give some relief to Cordarrelle Patterson.”

Fantasy Football Rankings 2022: Breakouts from analytical model that nailed Jaylen Waddle's huge year

Top 2022 Fantasy football breakouts

... breakout that SportsLine's Fantasy football rankings 2022 have identified: Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier. Cordarrelle Patterson is expected to be the starter after leading the team in rushing yards and touchdowns last season, but his age presents an excellent opportunity for Allgeier as the No. 2 running back. The rookie had an outstanding career at BYU, totaling 2,899 yards and 36 touchdowns.

He also has an opportunity to lock down a starting role for years to come, making him a strong pick in dynasty formats. Allgeier ranked first in rushing yards after contact and second in rushing touchdowns among FBS players with at least 150 carries over the past two seasons. He has proven an ability to shoulder a large workload as a rusher and receiver, making him a strong Fantasy football pick this season.

 

[zeeshan2]

Beat: Allgeier could become Falcons starting RB

http://www.nbcsportsedge.com/football/nfl/player-news/10857841?category=headlines&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[Ilov80s]

Beat: Allgeier could become Falcons starting RB

http://www.nbcsportsedge.com/football/nfl/player-news/10857841?category=headlines&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Seems like a total non-story to me. Beat writer saying "there's a scenario" and he basically says if Allgeiers plays as well as he did in college then he might become the starter. 

 

[TripItUp]

Seems like a total non-story to me. Beat writer saying "there's a scenario" and he basically says if Allgeiers plays as well as he did in college then he might become the starter. 

classic beat writer fluff piece

 

[menobrown]

If you want to brush him on  Allgeier  a one hour special airing tonight but you got have some free BYU TV app: https://twitter.com/DaveMcCannTV/status/1551577464760987648

 

[zamboni]

Will be keeping an eye on Allgeier's pass catching/blocking abilities. If he does earn the starting role, that obviously has value, but if he's locked into a 2-down role on a team that may not have the strongest offense, that's a different value proposition IMO. 

 

[TripItUp]

I just can't get rid of the idea that Allgeier is Mike Davis 2.0 with a little more juice.   I have some shares, but not a player I'm targeting or going out of my way to acquire.

 

[barackdhouse]

I just can't get rid of the idea that Allgeier is Mike Davis 2.0 with a little more juice.   I have some shares, but not a player I'm targeting or going out of my way to acquire.

Might be right but Mike Davis was going 4th-6th round and Allgeier has been going in the teens.

 

[bostonfred]

Seems like a total non-story to me. Beat writer saying "there's a scenario" and he basically says if Allgeiers plays as well as he did in college then he might become the starter. 

Did the beat writers say anything about Damien Williams having a path to being the starter?

 

[TheWinz]

I just can't get rid of the idea that Allgeier is Mike Davis 2.0 with a little more juice.   I have some shares, but not a player I'm targeting or going out of my way to acquire.

Mike Davis with a little more juice would make a fine FF RB.  He finished as a RB3 in a full timeshare with CPat, and in 2020 he was a RB1.  He's like a cockroach that won't die.  But yes, he sucks.

 

[Faust]

On an unofficial depth chart released by the team Tuesday, Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier is listed eighth at the position.​

The beat all summer has been that Allgeier has a good shot to be the No. 2 back behind Cordarrelle Patterson, if not eventually become the starter. Coaches love to lie via depth chart. Please do not take this too seriously. But it is very funny to see Allgeier behind converted defensive back Avery Williams, among others. Atlanta's run offense had major problems last season, and it's hard to see Allgeier being empirically impressive or efficient, but volume should eventually come for him this year.
SOURCE: Atlanta Falcons
Aug 9, 2022, 1:10 PM ET

 

[Saint]

For a double digit draft pick with upside, I will take this to the bank. If he doesn't work out in a few weeks, cut him for someone else, but this is the type of cat I like to look at it with those late round draft picks.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He looked solid, but nothing special, in a fairly big role early in the game. Williams was first RB in.
He ran hard. Caught a few balls but got nothing after the catch. He had all positive yardage plays and at worst got what was blocked for him - with a few broken tackles.
Volume can be king in fantasy football. He has a path to volume.

 

[reedik04]

I think he looks slow.

 

[Boone22]

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier is inactive for Week 1 against the Saints.​

The Falcons weren't lying when they listed Allgeier eighth on their summer depth chart. It will be Cordarrelle Patterson leading the Falcons' backfield, with journeyman veteran Damien Williams second in line for touches. Allgeier can be dropped if you were still holding out hope in 12-team leagues, though keep him on your watch lists. Things change quickly around here.

 

[(HULK)]

I'm kinda surprised at the healthy scratch. Williams is a JAG 100%. You'd think they'd want him up to at least dip his toes in the water.

This probably means Corderelle was way under drafted more than anything.

 

[Weebs210]

Agreed. Small bench redraft I guess I'm going to drop him but definitely going to keep my eyes on practice reports to rescoop him.

 

[Weebs210]

Williams placed on IR. May be time to grab him again. Unfortunately in the one league I don't have him I'd have to drop Brian Robinson or Dotson so I can't there.

 

[Faust]

Falcons Daily: Analyzing the running back rotation, likelihood Tyler Allgeier is active against Rams

 

[TampaMike19]

Feels like a must-add given the Falcons just put up some big RB points...perhaps the scheme churns out some value this year.

 

[Doubles]

I think he looks slow.

Seriously. I watched highlights and he looks slow af. I thought it was just me.

 

[wickster33]

unnerving that he doesn’t top a converted CB/Kick returner on the depth chart, but he is still one of only three healthy rbs on the Falcons roster and the only one who grades out as a pure running back. Have to think he’ll get some run today.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Any updated thoughts on this guy? Box scored 10 rushes for 30 yards, nothing too exciting but active nonetheless.