RB Willis McGahee is STILL Overrated (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

Willis McGahee is still way overrated.Edit:Conscensus #4 RB as of May 5, 2005Edit:Moving down.Concensus number 5 running back as of June 03, 2005.I'll keep updating this as the season moves closer.Edit:Moving Down.Concensus number 6 running back as of June 15, 2005.

 

[Maulers]

This should be fun

 

[Snotbubbles]

What scoring system? 1ppr no way he's top 5.

 

[Bloom]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

 

[Joe T]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

That's one non-sheep in the group.

 

[David Yudkin]

I have him ranked the lowest of any FBG staff (15th), so I guess I am in Joe T's camp on this one . . .

 

[Payne]

Willis McGahee is still way overrated.

Concensus number 5 running back as of June 03, 2005.

I'll keep updating this as the season moves closer.

I agree. But instead of trying to convince others, I think the rest of us should keep quiet and take a better RB down the line.

 

[Joe T]

I have him ranked the lowest of any FBG staff (15th), so I guess I am in Joe T's camp on this one . . .

I've got him 16th.Welcome aboard!

I'm predicting many other riders on this train in the coming months.

 

[Snotbubbles]

mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Since when is that a determining factor of success in future years.

 

[Joe T]

Willis McGahee is still way overrated.

Concensus number 5 running back as of June 03, 2005.

I'll keep updating this as the season moves closer.

I agree. But instead of trying to convince others, I think the rest of us should keep quiet and take a better RB down the line.

 

[Jason Wood]

Willis McGahee is still way overrated.

Concensus number 5 running back as of June 03, 2005.

I'll keep updating this as the season moves closer.

I've got him 12th...although I would expect someone like you Joe to break down exactly WHY you see him as overvalued rather than just mandating the view.

 

[jurb26]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

What about:Tiki

DD

Martin

Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB )

From looking at the title, I actaully thought this thread had usefull information or some sort of breaking news in it. Silly me I suppose.

 

[Joe T]

I would expect someone like you Joe to break down exactly WHY you see him as overvalued rather than just mandating the view.

be patient GB....no one has come to the McGahee side yet.

 

[Joe T]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

What about:Tiki

DD

Martin

Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB )

None of those guys are in the concensus top 5.Nor will they need 1+ TD a game to live up to their draft position.

 

[Bloom]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

What about:Tiki

DD

Martin

Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB )

None of those guys are in the concensus top 5.Nor will they need 1+ TD a game to live up to their draft position.

just to follow up, all of them (except bettis of course) had at least 3 games with 150+ total yards.

 

[jurb26]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

What about:Tiki

DD

Martin

Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB )

None of those guys are in the concensus top 5.Nor will they need 1+ TD a game to live up to their draft position.

OK, then Edge. After the top 2 or possible 3 (if you count Holmes), its a rather large tier with little seperation. A lot of people may rank Willis 5, but could just as easily place 3 or 4 (maybe a lot more) other guys there too.

 

[jurb26]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

What about:Tiki

DD

Martin

Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB )

None of those guys are in the concensus top 5.Nor will they need 1+ TD a game to live up to their draft position.

just to follow up, all of them (except bettis of course) had at least 3 games with 150+ total yards.

Yes, but the point is that no RB with subpar TD numbers will finish in the top 5. Any RB in the top 5 is dependent on getting his TDs.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I've been on this train for a LONG time.

 

[jurb26]

I love the 150 yd cut off too. You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

 

[SammyJankis]

I think he's way overrated. I own him in one of my dynasty leagues, so I watched him a lot last year. There were plenty of scary moments where McGahee got banged up and limped off the field. He usually returned, but it seemed like he was getting injured every game.Then consider that this is a guy that is going to be playing in an offense with a first year starter and 2nd year pro at quarterback.Then consider that his offensive line lost its best lineman in Jonas Jennings.Then when you go back and look at his numbers from last year, you'll see that of his seven 100 yard games, they came against teams ranked 31st(MIA), 27th(ARI), 5th(NYJ), 29th(STL), 23rd(SEA), 32nd(CLE) and 20th(SF) against the run.I think McGahee is a talent and I think he has a good shot at a decent season. But he carries a lot of risk, and I think his upside is much lower than the average person.I just don't think you can draft McGahee at #5. I think he's the most overrated RB on the board in redraft leagues.

 

[Joe T]

I love the 150 yd cut off too. You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.

 

[Joe T]

I think he's way overrated. I own him in one of my dynasty leagues, so I watched him a lot last year. There were plenty of scary moments where McGahee got banged up and limped off the field. He usually returned, but it seemed like he was getting injured every game.

Then consider that this is a guy that is going to be playing in an offense with a first year starter and 2nd year pro at quarterback.

Then consider that his offensive line lost its best lineman in Jonas Jennings.

Then when you go back and look at his numbers from last year, you'll see that of his seven 100 yard games, they came against teams ranked 31st(MIA), 27th(ARI), 5th(NYJ), 29th(STL), 23rd(SEA), 32nd(CLE) and 20th(SF) against the run.

I think McGahee is a talent and I think he has a good shot at a decent season. But he carries a lot of risk, and I think his upside is much lower than the average person.

I just don't think you can draft McGahee at #5. I think he's the most overrated RB on the board in redraft leagues.

I'm quoting this not only because it is , but also so Jason Wood can make note of the .Thank you Sammy.

 

[Burning Sensation]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

 

[Jason Wood]

I love the 150 yd cut off too.  You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.

Joe brings up an excellent point...people seem comfortable to look at McGahee's part-time TD totals and think, "WOW, imagine what he'll do starting all 16 games!" Yet, we also have to realize that TD production is the least predictable variable from year-to-year of the major RB metrics. It's dangerous to play the "if we project Player X's stats for a full season" game but yet people are so readily comfortable in doing that for McGahee.Yet, I see almost no one talking about someone like Julius Jones who, last time I checked, projected to more than 1800 yards rushing based on his performance as a "starter." I'm not advocating Julius Jones to rank that high either, but why there's a universal belief that McGahee will be "can't miss" and elite while guys like Kevin Jones and Julius Jones are being projected more conservatively makes little sense to me.

 

[jdid258]

Has had another year to get stronger and heal. His carries will number over 400 as he is the team. They will stack the D against him with a 1st yr qb which will limit his yds per carry. But 400 x 3.5 = 1400 yds + TD's.

 

[Kleck.]

I love the 150 yd cut off too.  You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.

1408 yards rushing isn't too bad if he does that for 16 games this year. I'm in the middle on this one. Overvalued at #5, undervalued at #16. The TD's will decide it.

 

[Joe T]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Edit to add: Alexander has averaged 17 TD's the last four seasons putting up 16, 18, 16, 20 the last four years.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I love the 150 yd cut off too.  You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.

Joe brings up an excellent point...people seem comfortable to look at McGahee's part-time TD totals and think, "WOW, imagine what he'll do starting all 16 games!" Yet, we also have to realize that TD production is the least predictable variable from year-to-year of the major RB metrics. It's dangerous to play the "if we project Player X's stats for a full season" game but yet people are so readily comfortable in doing that for McGahee.Yet, I see almost no one talking about someone like Julius Jones who, last time I checked, projected to more than 1800 yards rushing based on his performance as a "starter." I'm not advocating Julius Jones to rank that high either, but why there's a universal belief that McGahee will be "can't miss" and elite while guys like Kevin Jones and Julius Jones are being projected more conservatively makes little sense to me.

I don think predicting TD's is as difficult as many make it out to be, at least compared to yardage. Martz, Haslett and Dungy(Manning) will pass inside the 10 more than say Vermeil and Holmgren.

 

[Jason Wood]

Has had another year to get stronger and heal. His carries will number over 400 as he is the team. They will stack the D against him with a 1st yr qb which will limit his yds per carry. But 400 x 3.5 = 1400 yds + TD's.

Hey Jdid...FOUR (4) people in the ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE NFL have had a 400+ carry season. If you're basing your assumptions for him on that expectation, I would encourage you to re-assess your enthusiasm.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/misc/rsh.htm

Woodrow

 

[wilked]

"Sharks" like jurb have shown me that Tiki will not be a top back this season, Williamson will be great value, and McGahee will be top 5Thanks for the info

 

[Burning Sensation]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

 

[wilked]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

I count 15 TDsMight want to get some better numbers

 

[wilked]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

This has already been disproven. Edge simply was not effective there last year. Good comment though

 

[beefcake]

mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Since when is that a determining factor of success in future years.

mmm 21x4 = 84he needs an average of like 8 ypc!!!

u consider that real?

 

[Jason Wood]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

McGahee MAY be a top 5 back, he's certainly got that ability. But my point (and I think it's Joe's point too) is that why is he considered a stone cold lock (his ADP suggests people view him as near can't miss) while other young runners with compelling 2004 campaigns are viewed as being less certain?

 

[Burning Sensation]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

I count 15 TDsMight want to get some better numbers

http://footballguys.com/McGaWi00-2.htm

 

[Jason Wood]

I count 15 TDs

Might want to get some better numbers

... 13 touchdowns

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Has had another year to get stronger and heal. His carries will number over 400 as he is the team. They will stack the D against him with a 1st yr qb which will limit his yds per carry. But 400 x 3.5 = 1400 yds + TD's.

He IS the team? They couldn't possibly throw to Moulds or Evans or anything.Predicting 400+ carries for a guy who had 284 last year and limped off the field in half of his games when no RB in the league was even CLOSE to 400 carries is pretty funny.

But hey, 400 carries has happened 4 times in the last 25 years (and not once in the last four years), so let's use that as a minimum projection for a guy with a bum knee.

Not only is the McGahee kool-aid abundant this year, apparently somebody spiked it.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Mcgahee was also under 1200 yards rushing last year

 

[Football Jones]

Willis is dynasty gold. You only need your eyes to see his enormous potential. And he'll only get better.I understand why people will hesitate in redraft leagues, but this kid just might be the top dog in a year or two when Losman matures & their OL improves. Yes...better than LT.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Willis is dynasty gold. You only need your eyes to see his enormous potential. And he'll only get better.

I understand why people will hesitate in redraft leagues, but this kid just might be the top dog in a year or two when Losman matures & their OL improves. Yes, better than LT.

Sure better than LT in 4 four years maybe, But not in PPR leagues.

 

[Banger]

Willis is dynasty gold. You only need your eyes to see his enormous potential. And he'll only get better.

I understand why people will hesitate in redraft leagues, but this kid just might be the top dog in a year or two when Losman matures & their OL improves. Yes, better than LT.

Not unless he substantially increases his receiving yards.

 

[Kleck.]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

I count 15 TDsMight want to get some better numbers

13 TD's FBG's15 TD's FBG's game logs

13 TD's NFL.com

13 TD's ESPN.com

FBG's game logs for week 8 and 11 don't match the logs from ESPN or NFL.

 

[Burning Sensation]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

McGahee MAY be a top 5 back, he's certainly got that ability. But my point (and I think it's Joe's point too) is that why is he considered a stone cold lock (his ADP suggests people view him as near can't miss) while other young runners with compelling 2004 campaigns are viewed as being less certain?

I think Mcgahee is in the top 5 more because the lack of any true top 5 backs. With the exception of Tomlinson, who else could you say is a lock to have a btter year than Mcgahee? Alexander or Holmes maybe, but they have ? that make me a bit nervous about spending a top 5 pick on them.

 

[Joe T]

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Interesting point. I agree that McGahee put up 1300 TOTAL yards in 15 games played with only 12 of those as the starter which I still find unimpressive. Yet the 13 TD's is impressive. But unless you are predicting him to be another Shaun Alexander, you can't draft him number five.There are so many differences in those two guys and their situations, I'm lost as to where to begin.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396170

NFL.com says 13 td, 22 catches and under 1200 yards rushing.

 

[Joe T]

Mcgahee was also under 1200 yards rushing last year

1128 - in 15 games (12 as a starter) not too good

 

[Banger]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

McGahee MAY be a top 5 back, he's certainly got that ability. But my point (and I think it's Joe's point too) is that why is he considered a stone cold lock (his ADP suggests people view him as near can't miss) while other young runners with compelling 2004 campaigns are viewed as being less certain?

I think Mcgahee is in the top 5 more because the lack of any true top 5 backs. With the exception of Tomlinson, who else could you say is a lock to have a btter year than Mcgahee? Alexander or Holmes maybe, but they have ? that make me a bit nervous about spending a top 5 pick on them.

Not sure what questions Alexander has besides his contract (which will be ironed out). He's been a top 5 lock the last 4 years, they really don't get much more consistent than he's been. Holmes I'd agree has questions and the whole handcuff scenario makes him less attractive.

 

[jurb26]

I love the 150 yd cut off too.  You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.

Since when are 1400+ rushing seasons disturbing?

 

[Jason Wood]

Mcgahee was also under 1200 yards rushing last year

1049 - in 15 games (12 as a starter) not too good

Just playing Devil's Advocate here...1,058 yards in 12 games started = 1,411 yards rushing pace

That would've been good enough for:

6th in 2004

10th in 2003

6th in 2002
4th in 2001
6th in 2000It's not McGahee's rushing totals from a year ago that make his top 5 ADP troubling, it's his lack of receiving yardage