RBBC In Houston? (1 Viewer)

[joffer]

Holling tore his ACL in August 2002, is that correct?

 

[Eagle Eye]

Another point to consider. When Houston took Hollings in the supplemental draft they were drafting thier RB of the future. Davis came on last year and and threw a nice monkey wrench in on the plan, but Hollings is still the bigger, faster back with more of a feature back pedigree.I personally see Hollings getting a bit too much action for Davis to justify his draft position.

(Not that I'm saying DD is Terrell Davis) but I'm pretty sure that if Hollings had been on the team with 6th round TD we would be laughing our arses off if people said that Hollings was taking TD's job just because he was picked to be the "franchise back" and had better measurables.The plain point of fact is that DD got it done. Many more highly rated guys than Hollings fall by the wayside so I don't think it would be a huge shock if Hollings did the same.

I don't disagree with anything you say there. Hollings may not cut it for any number of reasons. My only contention is that he will get an opportunity to show what he's got this year. And that makes Davis more of a risk than I'm willing to take at the turn of the 2nd round.Just like we've seen many a high draft pick not pan out, we've also seen guys with one half of a year of hot half stats who never followed it up.This one dates back awhile but its the first example that pops into my head because I got burned by him...undrafted Fred Lane put together an amazing 2nd half and I extrapolated those numbers and convinced myself he was a sure thing. Oops.

 

[Bloom]

Holling tore his ACL in August 2002, is that correct?

it was a little later, late sept or early oct.not only do i think hollings will hit the field just so the texans can see what theyve got, i think a 65/35 mix of the two will give the texans the best chance to win, because they have perfectly complimentary styles, and davis already showed that his style subjects him to punishment that will cause him to miss games (one missed last year) - its in their best interest to decrease the number of hits he takes because he doesnt quite have the right body type for his bruising between-the-tackles style.

 

[TheFanatic]

How did Trent Green' s career turn out?Colin

That's not the point. The guy in place was Green. Just like Hollings was in place to be the starter before DDavis got a shot. DDavis out of sheer luck gets a chance to start and gets the job done, just like Warner in 99. Later, Green was healthy and Warner was still the starter. They didn't just say, "great job Kurt, but our starter is healthy again so back to the bench."Warner earned the job over the projected starter. DDavis earned the job over the projected starter (obviously not to the extent that Warner did, but won it none the less). Could Hollings win the job? Could he get 10-12 touches a game? Sure on both counts, but I think both are unlikely. DDavis won the job and will keep it until he can't perform. Unless you think they will go ahead and forget the fact that Davis got them 1K in 10 games and Hollings has done absolutely nothing for the organization? Or how about the PR mess they will get into when the fan darling, DDavis, is benched for some guy that started 4 games at RB in his career and none of them were in the NFL?

 

[Colin Dowling]

That's not the point. The guy in place was Green. Just like Hollings was in place to be the starter before DDavis got a shot. DDavis out of sheer luck gets a chance to start and gets the job done, just like Warner in 99. Later, Green was healthy and Warner was still the starter. They didn't just say, "great job Kurt, but our starter is healthy again so back to the bench."

No, Stacey Mack was in place to be the starter. THe company line on Hollings was (and continues to be) "he's here for 2004, anything he does in 2003 is a bonus."Colin

 

[Kiddnets]

This controversy surrounding DD is exactly why his value is falling and will be a steal for those who hasn't drafted yet. One of the owners in my ultra competitive 14 team auction ($500 cap) league has been reading these type of posts and panicked by dealing me DD ($10 for 2 years). To show how scared - I gave up $65 and D Clark for Davis ($10), Balt D ($12) and Shockey ($55 - the anchor in the deal but I can cut him and eat half the salary). So I basically will pay $100-130 for DD for 2004 and he is $10 outright in 2005 - so the owner must be convinced there is no way DD starts in 2004 let alone 2005! A top 10 RB in our league goes for well over $200. 10-20 go about $150-$200. So if DD does what I think he will do I will have a #2 with #1 type potential in 2004 and an absolute #1 steal in 2005 - thank you media hype for Hollings! The other owner is convinced that Hollings is the man and will probably overpay to get him in the draft. This is only meant to give you an example of how DD's value is dropping - it is worth the risk to get him IMO. He could very well end up being a top 10 RB by the end of the year. DD would have to flop to have Hollings get a legitimate shot. Not going to happen IMO.

 

[WhoDat]

Wow! Very hot topic today.

Colin, I pick up what you are putting down. Thanks for the response.

I did more digging and here is who Tony put those numbers up against. Again, I am not arguing either side of the topic. This is just an exercise to understand how a player with such little experience is so higly valued.

Vandy, UConn, Clemson and BYU.

I am speaking from experience at this point regarding college football, having played in the Big 12. Anybody at a skill position can get it on when facing a doormat of 1A or 1AA. You are suppose too. You should, otherwise, you would not be starting. I would hope to God a starting TB from Georgia Tech would wreak havoc against UConn and Vandy.

For the sake of validating Tony's stats Vandy and UConn do not count. He got off against lesser competition, which I found happens with regularity when you play teams that are really that bad. Colin, from reading your stuff I know you follow Big 12 athletics. Think Kansas State and their out of conference scheduling habits. Holling burned those two teams and it should have happened that way. Kansas State usually has a player that does that over the first month of the season and fades, when Big 12 play starts.

I will begrudgingly allow the BYU game but a case can be made to throw that one out too. That is a very Weak Athletic Conference. The game against Clemson counts. Conference game and Clemson is not what I would consider an ACC doormat.

Keeping this in mind, Hollings has 1.5 games against decent competition at TB, while in college, and is still healing from a severe knee injury. Stats and one eye witness account earlier in the thread show and validate he had great numbers, ability and speed in college. Scouting reports show he had and still might have home run hitting speed, while possessing raw talent.

Davis was an NFL Offense Rookie of the Year. I would suggest you omit his college stats at this point. His current resume is more applicable for this exercise. His talent is not raw. His risk level is low. None of that can be said about Hollings.

At this point I still do not see the fascination or justfication to claim Hollings will cut that far into Davis' numbers. A few people have mentioned coach speak and motivational tactics, when defining the print articles. I have to agree. The team is attempting to light a fire under Hollings and make sure Davis does not enter camp fat and happy, opinion.

An NFL team is not going to let a supplemental pick play just because they gave up x to get him or for an executive, like Casserly, to save face. He'll play if he is better than the guy in front of him. Period. Today, Hollings is not better than Davis.

Considering all that has been said, I currently cannot say that Hollings is going to get more than 25-30% of the carriers. Maybe that changes over camp, as the Hollings does have a high level of God given talent, but until he makes something happen, Davis still appears to be a decent play.

I am still open to see something I might be missing regarding Hollings. Please make me see it, as I am probably going to be staring D. Davis right in the face come draft day.

 

[pghrob]

Sometimes, players come from nowhere and make it.Terrell Davis was a virtual come from nowhere guy who was a 6th round pick that took the RB job in Denver his rookie year. The year before that, the Broncos thought former Patriot and free agent pickup Leonard Russell was their future RB. Granted 1994 was Wade Phillip's last year as coach and the next year they brought in Shanahan, but the organization thought Leonard Russell was their man until Davis fell into their lap from literally nowhere in 1995.Who would have thought it? Sometimes players come from nowhere.Edited to simply state that DD may be one of those players who came out of nowhere and will make it as a star RB in the NFL.

 

[BigJim®]

I mean Trent Green was signed to be the guy in St. Louis and then blew the knee and out of no where Warner gets it done and stays in the gig after Green departs for greener pastures. I'm not saying that DDavis put up Warner-type numbers at RB last year, but he got the job done. Sometimes a Premium player just falls into your lap out of circumstance. DDavis did just that for the Texans.

I think this analogy is apples/oranges. QBs do not rotate in and out like RBs, so there was little opportunity for legit ongoing competiton at that position after Warner exploded, whereas anytime you have a 60/40 split, a game-by-game competition is unavoidable. Also, I wouldn't compare DD's 1000 yard/8 TD season to a 41 TD/Superbowl Championship year that Warner had. 1000 yard seasons are a dime a dozen in the NFL and in no way, shape or form would this milestone be worthy of precluding competition (or even be expected to). DD showed a lot of promise in 2003, but no way is the Texans coaching staff hamstrung needing to play DD only at the RB position in the same manner the Rams were in needing to start Warner following his 1999 showing.

 

[TheFanatic]

That's not the point. The guy in place was Green. Just like Hollings was in place to be the starter before DDavis got a shot. DDavis out of sheer luck gets a chance to start and gets the job done, just like Warner in 99. Later, Green was healthy and Warner was still the starter. They didn't just say, "great job Kurt, but our starter is healthy again so back to the bench."

No, Stacey Mack was in place to be the starter. THe company line on Hollings was (and continues to be) "he's here for 2004, anything he does in 2003 is a bonus."Colin

Oh, please. I can't believe you even brought up Mack. If Mack was even a factor in this discussion, the Texans would not have burned a 2nd rounder on Hollings. I believe that Hollings was picked up in the first few weeks of the season to be the starter in 2004 because the guy starting in 2003 wasn't getting it done (Mack). Then DDavis got a shot at it and got it done. Then all of the sudden the starter in 2003 was getting it done. I have yet to see mention of where Hollings is going to start or even get a chance to challenge for the job. The most the coaches can hype the guy is that he will get 10 carries a game? That's not much hype considering the time of the year. I think we will have to agree to disagree here and then revisit this during the season when Hollings is getting 6 touches a game and DDavis shuts all the hater up....

 

[Colin Dowling]

Oh, please. I can't believe you even brought up Mack. If Mack was even a factor in this discussion, the Texans would not have burned a 2nd rounder on Hollings. I believe that Hollings was picked up in the first few weeks of the season to be the starter in 2004 because the guy starting in 2003 wasn't getting it done (Mack). Then DDavis got a shot at it and got it done. Then all of the sudden the starter in 2003 was getting it done.

Uh, no. Hollings was selected before the season to start in 2004. Mack was signed to a 1 year deal (before the sup. draft) to be given a chance to prove his worth. Davis came from nowhere and was a welcome surprise since Mack was so bad. I love it when people talk about "shutting the haters up." Good one. I'm not a hater, I just think taking Davis at 2.02 (his ADP) is a stretch. We will revisit it later this year, I assure you. And when fans realize that David Carr isn't dumping it to his running back every time he takes a snap, and Tony Hollings is getting even a meager 1/3 of the workload and Davis is leaking points on people's fantasy teams because he's not getting 30 touches a game (as someone suggested earlier), I'll be more than happy to break down the "how did that happen?" with you.

Colin

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm not saying that DDavis put up Warner-type numbers at RB last year, but he got the job done.

Also, I wouldn't compare DD's 1000 yard/8 TD season to a 41 TD/Superbowl Championship year that Warner had.

Someone needs to read before they comment, huh? Because if you had read what I had posted, you would see that obviously, I didn't make that comparison eaither. I was comparing opportunities for people to start and keep their job not DDavis' 1K and 8 to Warner's 4K and 41.

 

[LHUCKS]

Oh, please. I can't believe you even brought up Mack. If Mack was even a factor in this discussion, the Texans would not have burned a 2nd rounder on Hollings. I believe that Hollings was picked up in the first few weeks of the season to be the starter in 2004 because the guy starting in 2003 wasn't getting it done (Mack). Then DDavis got a shot at it and got it done. Then all of the sudden the starter in 2003 was getting it done.

Uh, no. Hollings was selected before the season to start in 2004. Mack was signed to a 1 year deal (before the sup. draft) to be given a chance to prove his worth. Davis came from nowhere and was a welcome surprise since Mack was so bad. I love it when people talk about "shutting the haters up." Good one. I'm not a hater, I just think taking Davis at 2.02 (his ADP) is a stretch. We will revisit it later this year, I assure you. And when fans realize that David Carr isn't dumping it to his running back every time he takes a snap, and Tony Hollings is getting even a meager 1/3 of the workload and Davis is leaking points on people's fantasy teams because he's not getting 30 touches a game (as someone suggested earlier), I'll be more than happy to break down the "how did that happen?" with you.

Colin

I don't have to post anything on this thread because Colin says everything before I have a chance. Go team.

 

[joffer]

RB14. That's what he finished as in '03. Throw in Moss and Harrison last year, and you could say that if you selected DD at 2.04 in a 12 teamer (16th overall), he equalled his draft position. Obviously you would have been laughed at, but you would have been right. Given that, how is 2.02 a reach with 6 more games to start, even if Hollings takes 100+ carries?

 

[beef]

Dom had like eight different injuries last year. Last year was also the first time in Dom's career that he was the primary ball carrier for an extended period of time and the nagging injuries came with it. At LSU LaBrandon Toefield was the main RB. Houston needs Hollings to take some carries so Dom doesn't need to be playing as much and getting beat up. He'll be even more effective (for Houston) if Hollings takes some carries and Dom can be playing more healthy and fresh. It's about winning games, and Houston knows they need to get Hollings more involved and keep Dom healthy and fresh to do it.In 1pt. per reception leagues I still like Dom and think he'll exceed his receiving numbers from last year. And since he is a great receiver, 18-20 touches a game will still result into many yards for him, but the 2.02 ADP is a bit high.

 

[Bloom]

Dom had like eight different injuries last year. Last year was also the first time in Dom's career that he was the primary ball carrier for an extended period of time and the nagging injuries came with it. At LSU LaBrandon Toefield was the main RB. Houston needs Hollings to take some carries so Dom doesn't need to be playing as much and getting beat up. He'll be even more effective (for Houston) if Hollings takes some carries and Dom can be playing more healthy and fresh. It's about winning games, and Houston knows they need to get Hollings more involved and keep Dom healthy and fresh to do it.In 1pt. per reception leagues I still like Dom and think he'll exceed his receiving numbers from last year. And since he is a great receiver, 18-20 touches a game will still result into many yards for him, but the 2.02 ADP is a bit high.

exactly. houston was placed in a position late last year to play dom as a true feature back because of necessity(mack hurt/sucking and hollings only one year removed from ACL surgery and still raw). this year, with a fully recovered and one-year-of-NFL-coaching hollings to spell davis, houston would be nuts to force davis to take that kind of punishment again when they have one of the most talented backup RBs in the NFL. it makes even more sense when you consider that hollings is a true change of pace from davis. if they stack the box to stop davis, hollings can burn em outside. they can fine tune their running game plan each week to the defense they are facing because they have a burner who can break it outside and a bruiser who can move the chains and take advantage of a weak front.

 

[Colin Dowling]

RB14. That's what he finished as in '03. Throw in Moss and Harrison last year, and you could say that if you selected DD at 2.04 in a 12 teamer (16th overall), he equalled his draft position. Obviously you would have been laughed at, but you would have been right. Given that, how is 2.02 a reach with 6 more games to start, even if Hollings takes 100+ carries?

Personally, I don't think he's going to factor in to the passing game nearly as much as last year. He caught 19% of the team's passes. For comparison's sake, Ahman Green (16%), Jamal Lewis (12%) and Curtis Martin (13%) all factored in less than that. If David Carr has improved at all, he's going to be throwing it more to his WRs and TE (Billy Miller caught a mere 16% of the team's passes) than to Davis in the flat. In week 6, 7 and 8, Davis averaged 9.3 targets a game. In that same stretch, Andre Johnson averaged 5, Gaffney averaged 3.6, and Bradford averaged 4. So, Dom. Davis was the #1 receiver 3 straight weeks as the QB played "safe" and dumped it to him over the middle for meager gains. Low-and-behold, that trend didn't continue and with the exception of week 17, when Edgerrin James was killing the Texans on his own, Davis averaged 3.1 targets the rest of the year.Now, add in that he averaged 20 carries per game as a starter, which is a pace I do not think he can handle nor do I think they'll ask him to handle, and I see him disappointing.COlin

 

[Kiddnets]

ColinRespect your opinion - but disagree with you on this one - just wondering, where do you think DD should fall if his VBD is too high? Do you see him as a solid #2?IMO He is probably a very good #2 in a 12 team league but I play in a 14 team league and I am counting him as a solid #1/2. In a 14 team league a decent #2 RB can be ranked in the 20's so if he is paired with a Travis Henry/Tiki/Curtis type RB would you feel good about it?

 

[Colin Dowling]

ColinRespect your opinion - but disagree with you on this one - just wondering, where do you think DD should fall if his VBD is too high? Do you see him as a solid #2?IMO He is probably a very good #2 in a 12 team league but I play in a 14 team league and I am counting him as a solid #1/2. In a 14 team league a decent #2 RB can be ranked in the 20's so if he is paired with a Travis Henry/Tiki/Curtis type RB would you feel good about it?

I've got Davis ranked as RB17, 21st overall. In a 14 team league, he'll definitely be a viable RB2. We're disagreeing over the tiniest degrees here - he's a RB2 for sure, I just like him more towards the middle of the group then the top.Colin

 

[joffer]

RB14.  That's what he finished as in '03.  Throw in Moss and Harrison last year, and you could say that if you selected DD at 2.04 in a 12 teamer (16th overall), he equalled his draft position.  Obviously you would have been laughed at, but you would have been right.  Given that, how is 2.02 a reach with 6 more games to start, even if Hollings takes 100+ carries?

Personally, I don't think he's going to factor in to the passing game nearly as much as last year. He caught 19% of the team's passes. For comparison's sake, Ahman Green (16%), Jamal Lewis (12%) and Curtis Martin (13%) all factored in less than that. If David Carr has improved at all, he's going to be throwing it more to his WRs and TE (Billy Miller caught a mere 16% of the team's passes) than to Davis in the flat. In week 6, 7 and 8, Davis averaged 9.3 targets a game. In that same stretch, Andre Johnson averaged 5, Gaffney averaged 3.6, and Bradford averaged 4. So, Dom. Davis was the #1 receiver 3 straight weeks as the QB played "safe" and dumped it to him over the middle for meager gains. Low-and-behold, that trend didn't continue and with the exception of week 17, when Edgerrin James was killing the Texans on his own, Davis averaged 3.1 targets the rest of the year.Now, add in that he averaged 20 carries per game as a starter, which is a pace I do not think he can handle nor do I think they'll ask him to handle, and I see him disappointing.COlin

I gotta say, removing the durability factor for a moment, I think you're reaching a little here on the receiving stats. He caught 47 passes in 14 games and 10 starts. To equal that he needs only 3 catches a game over 16 games. You don't think someone that demonstrated his receiving skills will catch around 3 passes a game? Carr is not going to turn into Peyton Manning overnight. He's still going to occasionally look for a reliable safety net.If you think he's a reach because of durability, that'll I'll buy, but his receiving numbers aren't going to just go away.Again, I hear a lot of arguments that Davis can't won't keep up the scoring pace he had last year to justify his draft position, and I'm saying he doesn't have to.And there's always the possibility that the injuries last year were flukes, and Davis can take 300+ carries. In that case, the sky is the limit.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I think his receiving numbers will take enough of a hit to frustrate people. Keep in mind that he had only two games with 3 or more catches in the final 8 games of the season. One of those games (Buffalo), he had 3 receptions with Banks at QB. The other game (Indy), he had 6 receptions with the Colts playing a serious prevent defense. The other 6 games were 1 or 2 catch affairs.COlin

 

[Gr00vus]

Anyone else think the start of that article was wierd?"The Houston Chronicle reports Texans RB Tony Hollings was the NCAA's leading rusher after four games in 2002 before an ACL injury ended his season at Georgia Tech."Thanks for the two years old news flash.Anyway, aren't we getting ahead of ourselves a bit with Hollings? He is comming off and ACL injury and we all know that you don't always make it back from those. He's definitely one situation that requires a decent amount of training camp/preseason viewing before you can make real judgements on it. I really do want to see him get some heavy work in before I form an opinion - hopefully the coaches will give him a chance in preseason.I'd think Davis will get his 20 or so touches a game as long as he a)doesn't get hurt and b)doesn't fail miserably. He was very productive with the number of touches he got last year, so even if there's a small drop off in his production, he looks to be a valuable player - unless you think he's a flash in the pan, in which case you aren't drafting him anyway.He's a second round pick, I like him better than Martin and Barber (I think I like Kevin Jones better than those guys anyway), probably a little better than Bennett (I go back and forth, but the kicker is I really think Bennett will get many TDs vultured by Williams, Smith and Culpepper) and less than Dillon. If I'm in the second and have a running back, I take Moss or Harrison ahead of him, if I don't have a running back I take him before I take a receiver.

 

[WhoDat]

when they have one of the most talented backup RBs in the NFL

This is why I asked my question(s) earlier. Bloom, I sincerely want to know how you or anyone else can come to this conclusion about Hollings, when he has played exactly 4 college games at TB (one against a 1AA team and another against Vandy); has a bionic knee and an uncanny ability to fumble the football? Again, I am not being sarcastic, mean, grumpy or nasty. I just want to understand how Hollings became the second coming with such little actual work experience.If the argument is reduced to talent and potential, then cannot it not be suggested that Davis, ROY, has already proven himself at this level and has more talent than Hollings? Also, has Davis not already defined his ability, whereas, Hollings offers nothing more than potential? I think coaches like to refer to that as raw talent.I agree Hollings is talented but looking great in camp and being able to translate the raw talent from practice field to playing field needs to happen prior to annointing him the starter to be. Davis has already done each. Hollings had a crack last year and did not fair so well. Davis sits within a nasty tier of players. Immediately after Barlow guys like Johnson, Davis, Henry, Barber, Dillon, Bennett and Martin appear. Each has a certain degree of risks associated with them but, if the only thing that could potentially threaten Davis is a guy that has played exactly 4 games at TB and each game was 2 years ago against average to below average talent, then Davis is not that bad of a play directly compared to his tiered peers.

 

[joffer]

I think his receiving numbers will take enough of a hit to frustrate people.

If Banks were the starting QB for 2004, I'd agree with you. Not with Carr. Houston will face some prevent defenses this year. I don't care how DD gets the numbers, just that he gets them.

 

[Marc Levin]

Personally, I don't think he's going to factor in to the passing game nearly as much as last year. He caught 19% of the team's passes. For comparison's sake, Ahman Green (16%), Jamal Lewis (12%) and Curtis Martin (13%) all factored in less than that.

That's b/c all three had REALLY crappy pass receiving years. JLew had 20-ish catches in 16 games - well below the 45 or so he caught in 2002. CuMar has been systematically phazed out of the passing game. AGreen had his lowest receiving totals in the last 5 years, and his receiving numbers have been steadily decreasing every year for the last four years.These are unfair comparisons. DDavis was being used in 2003 in Houston the way LT, Priest, or Deuce are used in their offenses - extensively. And there is every indication he and Hollings will be used just as much or more this year if the OC was correct that Carr will throw 35 times a game - up from just over 27 times a game in 2003.And, they added diddly plus squat to the receiving crew, so there is no reason to think Gaffney and Bradford are suddenly going to be targeted a lot more - Dom "conservative" Capers is likely going to ask Carr to go to the outlet more than the WRs to cut down on Carr's tendency to have more INTs than TDs in a game.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think his receiving numbers will take enough of a hit to frustrate people. Keep in mind that he had only two games with 3 or more catches in the final 8 games of the season. One of those games (Buffalo), he had 3 receptions with Banks at QB. The other game (Indy), he had 6 receptions with the Colts playing a serious prevent defense. The other 6 games were 1 or 2 catch affairs.COlin

But, he was targeted and caught passes every game - 3 catches per game = 48 on the year.

 

[LHUCKS]

And, they added diddly plus squat to the receiving crew, so there is no reason to think Gaffney and Bradford are suddenly going to be targeted a lot more - Dom "conservative" Capers is likely going to ask Carr to go to the outlet more than the WRs to cut down on Carr's tendency to have more INTs than TDs in a game.

I must differ with you there counselor. Gaffney has shown promise and Andre Johnson is a beast. The O-Coordinator has gone on record stating they will get him the ball more this year and anybody who watched Andre last year knows it would probably be a wise decision to do so.Capers is conservative and that wont change, but don't be surprised if the offense is at the very least a little more balanced this year.P.S. If somebody can find the link where the O-Coordinator said this I'd appreciate it...before the link Nazis attack me.

 

[Marc Levin]

before the link Nazis attack me.

Link?

 

[Gr00vus]

"Gaffney has shown promise and Andre Johnson is a beast. The O-Coordinator has gone on record stating they will get him the ball more this year and anybody who watched Andre last year knows it would probably be a wise decision to do so."SHHHHHH!!!! No pimping Andre until after my drafts.

 

[Colin Dowling]

These are unfair comparisons. DDavis was being used in 2003 in Houston the way LT, Priest, or Deuce are used in their offenses - extensively.

For what its worth, those comparisons were actually quite "on point". I was making reference to running backs that caught a similar number of balls to Davis's 47. Green had 50, Martin had 42. Jamal may have been a bad example, but the point stands: I'd be suprised if DDavis catches that percentage of his team's passes again because they DON'T line him up in the slot a la LT2, Faulk, or Priest and RBs that catch almost exclusively out of the backfield rarely account for that high of a percentage of receptions. Colin

 

[Colin Dowling]

But, he was targeted and caught passes every game - 3 catches per game = 48 on the year.

He averaged 2.25 receptions a game in the last half of the season. Thats 36 on the year.COlin

 

[LHUCKS]

Edited to Add: Carr has a year of experience under his belt, which should help assist the development of the passing attack. You don't draft a gunslinger like Carr to hand the ball off.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Good thread. My thoughts:

1. Hollings was drafted to be the starter in 2004, not 2003. Mack was supposed to start in 2003. Since then, D.Davis's performance has changed things. Now D.Davis is expected to start in 2004, and Hollings is expected to get carries as well. It's really not so different from the Panthers' and Bills' situations. An established starter has played well enough to lock up the featured role heading into the season, but many people think the #2 guy has more talent.

2. I've seen Hollings play, and I was very impressed. I'm not talking about college; I'm talking about last year's NFL preseason. Hollings showed exceptional quickness, moves, and vision -- and that was when he was just coming back from injury. Now that he ought to be completely recovered, I'm eager to see what he can do. D.Davis was very successful last year so it's hard to say Hollings will be better; but after watching Hollings a year ago, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he turns out to be the better RB.

3. I don't really think D.Davis is being drafted too high in comparison to other RBs. He's in the same tier as other guys with similar question marks: T.Henry, S.Davis, M.Faulk, M.Bennett, and even T.Barber are expected to share carries this year with very talented RBs -- or, at least, RBs who looked talented in college. (That's the Ron Dayne qualifier.) Based on last year's performance, I'm not sure any of those guys are better than D.Davis. (I tend to like Moss, Holt, and Harrison better than any of those guys; but just among RBs, I'd take D.Davis.)

4. Tony Hollings is actually a point in D.Davis's favor, IMO. If I take D.Davis, I'm definitely going to handcuff Hollings to him. If D.Davis keeps the job, great. If he gets injured or if Hollings just takes the job from him, also fine. I'm covered either way. (If Kevan Barlow gets hurt, on the other hand, I won't have a ready-made sub for him.) The only thing I don't want to see is RBBC a la San Francisco the past couple years, but I don't think that's likely to happen. I think they'll stick predominantly with one guy, even though both will get carries.

 

[beef]

But, he was targeted and caught passes every game - 3 catches per game = 48 on the year.

He averaged 2.25 receptions a game in the last half of the season. Thats 36 on the year.COlin

And he averaged 3.75 receptions a game in the first half of the season. Thats 60 on the year.BEef

 

[ko-jack]

That's impossible. I've read too many posts that say Hollings is no threat to DD's touches.

didnt they blow a supplemental pick on hollings that cost them a real draft pick? thats a pretty big investment to sit on the bench.

 

[beef]

That's impossible. I've read too many posts that say Hollings is no threat to DD's touches.

didnt they blow a supplemental pick on hollings that cost them a real draft pick? thats a pretty big investment to sit on the bench.

It was pick 2.01, #33 overall this year. Since they used it on the supp draft it was skipped and the rest of the picks moved up a spot.

 

[Bloom]

when they have one of the most talented backup RBs in the NFL

This is why I asked my question(s) earlier. Bloom, I sincerely want to know how you or anyone else can come to this conclusion about Hollings, when he has played exactly 4 college games at TB (one against a 1AA team and another against Vandy); has a bionic knee and an uncanny ability to fumble the football? Again, I am not being sarcastic, mean, grumpy or nasty. I just want to understand how Hollings became the second coming with such little actual work experience.If the argument is reduced to talent and potential, then cannot it not be suggested that Davis, ROY, has already proven himself at this level and has more talent than Hollings? Also, has Davis not already defined his ability, whereas, Hollings offers nothing more than potential? I think coaches like to refer to that as raw talent.I agree Hollings is talented but looking great in camp and being able to translate the raw talent from practice field to playing field needs to happen prior to annointing him the starter to be. Davis has already done each. Hollings had a crack last year and did not fair so well. Davis sits within a nasty tier of players. Immediately after Barlow guys like Johnson, Davis, Henry, Barber, Dillon, Bennett and Martin appear. Each has a certain degree of risks associated with them but, if the only thing that could potentially threaten Davis is a guy that has played exactly 4 games at TB and each game was 2 years ago against average to below average talent, then Davis is not that bad of a play directly compared to his tiered peers.

the argument is reduced to talent and potential - hollings can burn, has shown very advanced running instincts, and has an NFL body/athleticism - the texans are crazy if they dont at least give him a chance to contribute - to see what kind of payoff that talent can produce. by no means is he going to displace davis as the back that gets the majority of touches, but he should get more touches than a typical backup. i think maurile is right on with the comparison to panthers/bills situations - and to bring it back to the original question - i think it is fair to be taking d. davis around the same time as henry and s. davis - although they have proven their ability as feature backs over a whole season and dom davis has not - still i think d. davis as 2.02 is fair - you should handcuff hollings, but you should handcuff mcgahee or foster to your other early 2nd rnd RBs, no big news there.

 

[joffer]

2. I've seen Hollings play, and I was very impressed. I'm not talking about college; I'm talking about last year's NFL preseason. Hollings showed exceptional quickness, moves, and vision -- and that was when he was just coming back from injury.

did you happen to catch those games in the actual NFL season?:cough:

2.7 YPC

:cough:

 

[ConstruxBoy]

2. I've seen Hollings play, and I was very impressed. I'm not talking about college; I'm talking about last year's NFL preseason. Hollings showed exceptional quickness, moves, and vision -- and that was when he was just coming back from injury.

did you happen to catch those games in the actual NFL season?:cough:

2.7 YPC

:cough:

Yeah, I'm not sure I understand the hype for Hollings either. I trust Herd's views alot, but I just don't see it with this guy. I lived in ATL when he was at GTech and saw 2 of the games he played at RB and then extensive highlights of the other 2 and I didn't think he looked that great. Decent measureables, but didn't seem to have RB instinct. Of course that makes sense given that we was a DB for most of his life.Edited to add:

Bloom, just saw your post above. I agree about the speed and body type (measureables), but I disagree about the instinct. What in particular makes you mention that about him?

 

[WhoDat]

This has turned into a well argued topic. Bloom, thanks for answering the question.I would place Davis, Rudi, Henry, Davis, Dillon, Martin and Bennett into the same grouping of players. Each has a series of "if, then" statements attributed to their respective situations. Obviously, we all know the situation of each so no need to go into each individual situation. You will have to spend more to obtain D. Davis in the draft but probably pay less for Hollings later, opinion. Unless Hollings proves his worth in camp, which will dramatically impact his value, he will probably come much cheaper than a player like L. Jordan, Perry, O. Smith, McGahee or Foster. Without digressing too far off topic I would rate Davis the best player of that group and would not shy away from taking him early in the second round, given what I know about each player's situation as of today.

 

[beef]

did you happen to catch those games in the actual NFL season?:cough:2.7 YPC:cough:

I did see the week 14 game he started but all I remember seeing was Jacksonville jerseys in the back field as soon as the ball was snapped.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

2. I've seen Hollings play, and I was very impressed. I'm not talking about college; I'm talking about last year's NFL preseason. Hollings showed exceptional quickness, moves, and vision -- and that was when he was just coming back from injury.

did you happen to catch those games in the actual NFL season?:cough:

2.7 YPC

:cough:

No, but I'm pretty sure he didn't suddenly lose all the run skills I saw once the preseason ended. I put a lot more stock into how well a guy runs (quickness to the hole, speed to the corner, moves in the open field, ability to set up his blocks, etc) than I put into YPC. You could make an amazing highlight reel of all of Barry Sanders's best zero-yard runs. If you were to watch the tape, you should not come away thinking, man, that guy averaged zero yards per carry on all those runs; you should come away thinking wow, he may be the best running back I've ever seen.BTW, how many carries did Hollings get when he averaged 2.7 YPC? I'm not looking up his 2003 stats (I've got too many windows open already), but I imagine it's a pretty small sample.

 

[joffer]

did you happen to catch those games in the actual NFL season?:cough:2.7 YPC:cough:

I did see the week 14 game he started but all I remember seeing was Jacksonville jerseys in the back field as soon as the ball was snapped.

Agree. I'll cut him some slack there. Houston was pathetic that day. But 19 yards on 18 carries? They could get that on 18 QB sneaks.

 

[-OZ-]

I didn't read the thread in detail, so I may have missed it, but why was Hollings converted to RB?

 

[Chitown Mole]

Hollings was an option QB in High School. http://cyberbuzz.gatech.edu/technique/issu...2-09-27/26.html

"When I was in high school playing quarterback," explains Hollings, "all the other teams called me Superman because they said they never saw anyone do the things I did. So it kind of grew on me."

 

[Harv72b]

Wow...this topic sure took off. Teach me to drop a quick post before I head off to work & think I'll actually be a player in the ensuing convo.

Going back to the root of this thread, and the current argument being used by most of the pro-Holling/anti-Davis people (I'm oversimplifying--I know most of you are just saying Davis isn't worth a high 2nd, not that he sucks)...I thought I'd use a trick that some others have already done, but bold up some different words.

The Houston Chronicle reports Texans RB Tony Hollings was the NCAA's leading rusher after four games in 2002 before an ACL injury ended his season at Georgia Tech. He is a backup for the purposes of depth charts. The Texans, however, consider him a playmaker. "We'd like to run the ball 30 times a game," OC Chris Palmer said. "We're going to have to split the load, and that's where Hollings is going to get his work. We're looking for Domanick to touch the ball 15, 18, 20 times a game, and we'd like to give Hollings 12 to 15 touches. "Our goal is to throw it 35 times and run it 30 times for 65 plays a game. We know that we need two good running backs to be successful throughout the year. The big thing we have to do as an offense is stay on the field. If we stay on the field, more guys will get more touches."

Now that you've read it the way it was said, what exactly does it say?1) Davis is the starter

2) Hollings will be used as well.

3) Davis will the primary ball-carrier

4) If everything works out & the offense can meet its (rather optimistic) goal of 65 plays/game, Hollings gets 12-15 touches. Meanwhile, Davis gets 15-20, regardless.

We're talking about an OC's comments regarding the ideal situation, and not what he expects to happen. Davis will get his touches. Hollings will get his touches if there are enough plays to go around. It's that simple.

Now, about the draft value question: the names I saw mentioned were Dillon, Henry, Bennett, Barber, and Martin.

Dillon - New team, not known for its rushing dominance. That's a question mark for me.

Henry - Is anyone seriously suggesting that Tony Hollings is a bigger threat to playing time than Willis McGahee?

Bennett - Onterrio Smith waiting in the wings, Moe Williams and Daunte Culpepper to vulture short TD opportunities.

Barber - Yet another plan by the Giants to get a "resurgent" Ron Dayne into the lineup again. And oh, the QB situation which so many are bemoaning.

Martin - LaMont Jordan still there and has the incentive of his last year under contract to drive him. And Martin is 31 years old.

Point being, when you look at likely 2nd round RB picks in a 12 team league, they all have question marks--that's why they aren't first round picks. What I, and others, see in Davis is higher upside than any of these other backs, both in the short- and the long term (for dynasty/keeper leagues). Okay, you could argue equal or better upside for Bennett, but that requires him to keep more than one other player on the bench.

And Mungo, you listed 4 players who ran for 1,000 their rookie seasons & didn't do it again. Over a 9 year span. I still contend that it doesn't "happen all the time".

 

[Dolfan]

....Now, about the draft value question: the names I saw mentioned were Dillon, Henry, Bennett, Barber, and Martin.

Dillon - New team, not known for its rushing dominance. That's a question mark for me.

Henry - Is anyone seriously suggesting that Tony Hollings is a bigger threat to playing time than Willis McGahee?

Bennett - Onterrio Smith waiting in the wings, Moe Williams and Daunte Culpepper to vulture short TD opportunities.

Barber - Yet another plan by the Giants to get a "resurgent" Ron Dayne into the lineup again. And oh, the QB situation which so many are bemoaning.

Martin - LaMont Jordan still there and has the incentive of his last year under contract to drive him. And Martin is 31 years old.

Point being, when you look at likely 2nd round RB picks in a 12 team league, they all have question marks--that's why they aren't first round picks. What I, and others, see in Davis is higher upside than any of these other backs, both in the short- and the long term (for dynasty/keeper leagues). Okay, you could argue equal or better upside for Bennett, but that requires him to keep more than one other player on the bench...

Way to rewrite my post.Too bad Colin doesn't have a response to it yet.

 

[Harv72b]

Way to rewrite my post.Too bad Colin doesn't have a response to it yet.

Sorry...just skimmed the responses, and apparently missed yours.

 

[Bloom]

Bloom, just saw your post above. I agree about the speed and body type (measureables), but I disagree about the instinct. What in particular makes you mention that about him?

i searched for links, but theyre hard to find - basically i remember all of the comments about hollings from NFL GM's and scouts to the effect that that hollings was clearly a natural RB who had an instinctive feel for running that could make him a real star in the league- including that great first cut and the ability to break any run for a TD- which would be borne out by his performance despite having no experience at the RB position. Hollings showed excellent vision, finding the weak point in the defense and hitting it decisively.

another scouting report

He also caught passes, and showed very good lateral movement for his stage of rehab. The former defensive back had run in the 4.38 range before the injury, according to staff members. Hollings started his career, as a defensive back and special teams performer. A between the tackles runnner with very good cut back ability, he also has exhibited an extra step of explosive open field speed. Very good vision, finds the hole quickly and darts to daylight with authority.

Hollings has the unique ability to almost always be falling forward after initial contact; showing very good strength and balance for his size. He has also shown good hands when used as a receiver, but durability and a lack of true game experience would be the big questions surrounding his game initially. "You really have to like what you see in those four game films from last year... he (Hollings) flashes some big time potential as a runner," said one NFC scout who attended Tuesday's workout.

 

[Marc Levin]

I was making reference to running backs that caught a similar number of balls to Davis's 47. Green had 50, Martin had 42.

In 16 full games each as starters. Again, not a good comparison. Extrapolate DD's receiving numbers to 16 full games and then we can talk comparisons.