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RBs after the 4th round (1 Viewer)

ScottNorwood

ScottNorwood

Footballcutie
ADP rounds 4-12

Pierre Thomas

Ronnie Brown

Ryan Grant

Thomas Jones

Kevin Smith

Reggie Bush

Marshawn Lynch

Larry Johnson

LenDale White

Jonathan Stewart

Darren McFadden

Willie Parker

Derek Ward

Knowshon Moreno

Chris Wells

Felix Jones

Jamal Lewis

Darren Sproles

Cedric Benson

LeRon McLain

Willis McGahee

A lot of :moneybag: players here. IMO there's a big drop off after the top 5-6 QBs and after the top 10-11 WRs. If I'm able to land a top QB and 2 top WRs I'd be more than happy building my RB corps out of this group. This is winning fantasy football, especially if you end up with a later pick.

 
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I completely agree with your premise, Norwood, but from my experience the top three backs on your list never make it to the fourth round. At least not in the mocks that I've particpated in.

 
ScottNorwood said:
ADP rounds 4-12Pierre ThomasRonnie BrownRyan GrantThomas JonesKevin SmithReggie BushMarshawn LynchLarry JohnsonLenDale WhiteJonathan StewartDarren McFaddenWillie ParkerDerek WardKnowshon MorenoChris WellsFelix JonesJamal LewisDarren SprolesCedric BensonLeRon McLainWillis McGaheeA lot of :goodposting: players here. IMO there's a big drop off after the top 5-6 QBs and after the top 10-11 WRs. If I'm able to land a top QB and 2 top WRs I'd be more than happy building my RB corps out of this group. This is winning fantasy football, especially if you end up with a later pick.
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ok. grats.
 
ScottNorwood said:
ADP rounds 4-12

Pierre Thomas

Ronnie Brown

Ryan Grant

Thomas Jones

Kevin Smith

Reggie Bush

Marshawn Lynch

Larry Johnson

LenDale White

Jonathan Stewart

Darren McFadden

Willie Parker

Derek Ward

Knowshon Moreno

Chris Wells

Felix Jones

Jamal Lewis

Darren Sproles

Cedric Benson

LeRon McLain

Willis McGahee

A lot of :thumbup: players here. IMO there's a big drop off after the top 5-6 QBs and after the top 10-11 WRs. If I'm able to land a top QB and 2 top WRs I'd be more than happy building my RB corps out of this group. This is winning fantasy football, especially if you end up with a later pick.
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to get a top QB and 2 top WRs, you'd need to draft near the end of a typical serpentine. therefore, you're looking at RBs at the end of round 4 to start building. i've marked the RBs typically gone by then. i'm not sure i'd want to build a team using Thomas Jones and Reggie Bush as my weekly starters. plus, you're almost required to continue drafting RBs in subsequent rounds to hedge your bet, at the expense of some good WRs available there.
 
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Anonymous Internet User said:
ScottNorwood said:
ADP rounds 4-12

Pierre Thomas

Ronnie Brown

Ryan Grant

Thomas Jones

Kevin Smith

Reggie Bush

Marshawn Lynch

Larry Johnson

LenDale White

Jonathan Stewart

Darren McFadden

Willie Parker

Derek Ward

Knowshon Moreno

Chris Wells

Felix Jones

Jamal Lewis

Darren Sproles

Cedric Benson

LeRon McLain

Willis McGahee

A lot of :confused: players here. IMO there's a big drop off after the top 5-6 QBs and after the top 10-11 WRs. If I'm able to land a top QB and 2 top WRs I'd be more than happy building my RB corps out of this group. This is winning fantasy football, especially if you end up with a later pick.
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to get a top QB and 2 top WRs, you'd need to draft near the end of a typical serpentine. therefore, you're looking at RBs at the end of round 4 to start building. i've marked the RBs typically gone by then. i'm not sure i'd want to build a team using Thomas Jones and Reggie Bush as my weekly starters. plus, you're almost required to continue drafting RBs in subsequent rounds to hedge your bet, at the expense of some good WRs available there.
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You can begin crossing off DMC to, I've been seeing him go towards the end of the 3rd in PPR
 
ScottNorwood said:
oh dear, this changes things drastically. Thanks for your input guys.
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Well, here's what you look at. If all these RB's are flying off the board by the end of the 4th, a number of the others in the top 50 have slipped and the value is elsewhere. But if you are specificy targetting Brown, Grant, or Thomas or in PPR Bush or possibly McFadden,, those could be gone. Lots of people are high on them.. also Morena.. chances are one could be there, but don't count on 2. If you are hoping to get these at the end of the 4th, that means you are drafting early first.. and you really should grab the RB there, or go WR/WR and get the RB you want in the third. That way if another RB you want isn't there in the 4th, you are looking at Rodgers/Rivers or a top TE. Winning position battles wins fantasy football.
 
Real draft spots from a PPR draft I am currently drafting in . . .

Pierre Thomas 3.05

Ronnie Brown 2.07

Ryan Grant 4.12

Thomas Jones 4.03

Kevin Smith 4.02

Reggie Bush 3.10

Marshawn Lynch 4.09

Larry Johnson 5.11

LenDale White Still available in 8th

Jonathan Stewart 5.02

Darren McFadden 4.01

Willie Parker 6.11

Derek Ward 5.03

Knowshon Moreno 5.04

Chris Wells 6.05

Felix Jones 7.06

Jamal Lewis Still available in 8th

Darren Sproles Still available in 8th

Cedric Benson 6.12

LeRon McLain Still available in 8th

Willis McGahee Still available in 8th

 
Added mine through 5.06 (12 teams; start 2RBs, 2WRs)

David Yudkin said:
Real draft spots from a PPR draft I am currently drafting in . . .Pierre Thomas 3.05, 4.03Ronnie Brown 2.07, 2.04Ryan Grant 4.12, 4.04Thomas Jones 4.03, 4.12Kevin Smith 4.02, 3.08Reggie Bush 3.10, 3.03Marshawn Lynch 4.09, 4.09Larry Johnson 5.11, 3.07LenDale White Still available in 8thJonathan Stewart 5.02Darren McFadden 4.01, 4.05Willie Parker 6.11, 5.06Derek Ward 5.03, 5.05Knowshon Moreno 5.04, 5.03Chris Wells 6.05Felix Jones 7.06Jamal Lewis Still available in 8thDarren Sproles Still available in 8thCedric Benson 6.12LeRon McLain Still available in 8thWillis McGahee Still available in 8th
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How many teams are in the league..8-10-12-14? Things change fast from a ten to a fourteen team league.

 
ScottNorwood said:
ADP rounds 4-12Pierre ThomasRonnie BrownRyan GrantThomas JonesKevin SmithReggie BushMarshawn LynchLarry JohnsonLenDale WhiteJonathan StewartDarren McFaddenWillie ParkerDerek WardKnowshon MorenoChris WellsFelix JonesJamal LewisDarren SprolesCedric BensonLeRon McLainWillis McGaheeA lot of :lmao: players here. IMO there's a big drop off after the top 5-6 QBs and after the top 10-11 WRs. If I'm able to land a top QB and 2 top WRs I'd be more than happy building my RB corps out of this group. This is winning fantasy football, especially if you end up with a later pick.
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i agree, especially if you are in a ppr league at the end of odd rounds.EDIT
 
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Mystery Achiever said:
Added mine through 4.10 (12 teams; start 2RBs, 2WRs)

David Yudkin said:
Real draft spots from a PPR draft I am currently drafting in . . .Pierre Thomas 3.05, 4.03Ronnie Brown 2.07, 2.04Ryan Grant 4.12, 4.04Thomas Jones 4.03, I hope to take at 4.12Kevin Smith 4.02, 3.08Reggie Bush 3.10, 3.03Marshawn Lynch 4.09, 4.09Larry Johnson 5.11, 3.07LenDale White Still available in 8thJonathan Stewart 5.02Darren McFadden 4.01, 4.05Willie Parker 6.11Derek Ward 5.03, Knowshon Moreno 5.04Chris Wells 6.05Felix Jones 7.06Jamal Lewis Still available in 8thDarren Sproles Still available in 8thCedric Benson 6.12LeRon McLain Still available in 8thWillis McGahee Still available in 8th
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If handcuffed properly, I think Lynch and Parker (or Larry Johnson) can be a serviceable backfield.
 
David, because I respect your judgment, which of the players on that list you presented do you believe will exceed their ADP? You don't have to get in depth if you don't want, but I certainly wouldn't object if you did.

 
know your league scotty.

in one league I can guarantee that RBrown wil be there at the end of the 3/4 turn. one other not so much,

Personally in PPR Im targeting one of the saints RBs at the bottom of 3/4 and then trying to get Mcfadden at the 5/6

 
If I opened with QB and 2 WR, and you told me that Willie Parker, Moreno, and Marshawn Lynch would all be there for me when I got to pick again, I'd be quite happy. In this situation, I would absolutely have to draft Moreno. His potential upside is irresistible. If he breaks out in year 1, which is very possible, you will dominate your league. Willie Parker would be next on my list.

 
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ScottNorwood said:
If handcuffed properly, I think Lynch and Parker (or Larry Johnson) can be a serviceable backfield.
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I'll take this one step further and say when you open QB-WR-WR, you need to not just handcuff, but take multiple shots on second-tier backs. So like even after you get Moreno or Parker or Wells, you are still targeting a Jamal Lewis-Harrison handcuff.
 
kaa said:
ScottNorwood said:
If handcuffed properly, I think Lynch and Parker (or Larry Johnson) can be a serviceable backfield.
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I'll take this one step further and say when you open QB-WR-WR, you need to not just handcuff, but take multiple shots on second-tier backs. So like even after you get Moreno or Parker or Wells, you are still targeting a Jamal Lewis-Harrison handcuff.
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I agree with this.
 
Mystery Achiever said:
two_dollars said:
wow is Ronnie's value really that high?
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I was a little surprised. I thought there was a good chance I'd get him at 2.12/3.01. Ended up with Jacobs who I had slightly higher anyway.
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Even as a Dolphins fan and someone who thinks Ricky gets a LOT less workload this year...2.04, 2.07? That's a little high.(However, there's no way he should make it past round three in a 12 team league.)
 
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I don't think LJ is getting enough love. While we wont be seeing 30 TDs, he is the lead back who will get a ton of work on a team that could have an ok offense (not great but shouldnt be terrible). He will get the rock, he will get goal line touches and his backups, from what Ive heard, are not exactly setting the world on fire in camp.

I see lots of people saying how LJ is not a guy they'd want as a #2. I think he is a nice fallback if you are looking for a K Smith type and lose out (which is exactly what happened to me in a recent draft).

That said, I am in a 2 QB league, drafting near the end. That means a couple of those RBs taken in the 3rd will be around in the early/mid 4th round. The question there is what happens if you take a RB in the first or second round (end of first early second) and then hold off until late 5TH round?

 
Koya said:
I don't think LJ is getting enough love. While we wont be seeing 30 TDs, he is the lead back who will get a ton of work on a team that could have an ok offense (not great but shouldnt be terrible). He will get the rock, he will get goal line touches and his backups, from what Ive heard, are not exactly setting the world on fire in camp.I see lots of people saying how LJ is not a guy they'd want as a #2. I think he is a nice fallback if you are looking for a K Smith type and lose out (which is exactly what happened to me in a recent draft).That said, I am in a 2 QB league, drafting near the end. That means a couple of those RBs taken in the 3rd will be around in the early/mid 4th round. The question there is what happens if you take a RB in the first or second round (end of first early second) and then hold off until late 5TH round?
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The way I see it, there's going to be at least one very good value pick available at RB in the 4th/5th round. So rounds 1-3 I will try to take at most 1 RB. If something ridiculous happens like I get AP #1 and someone like Portis is available with my next pick then I'll go there. So if there's value at RB in rounds 1-3 I'll go there, but I'm not going to reach on an RB in those rounds because I expect there to be good value in the middle rounds.
 
What if you go WR, WR, WR and if Rodgers is there in the 4th, QB in a PPR league? I've actually been bouncing this idea around lately. If I can get what I estimate as 3 top-15 WRs in PPR, I might jump at the opportunity. Then, I'd like to hedge my bets with a top-flight QB.

I know this is a risky proposition but if you can hit big on 1-2 midround backs, you might be able to field a potentially dominant team.

Some mock drafts I've done have had some of the following available in the 5-6 round range:

McFadden (this is growing less likely by the day)

Moreno

Ward/Graham

Addai/Brown

Parker

Wells/Hightower

Larry Johnson

Benson

ETA: The biggest problem here seems to be Rodgers not making it to the 4th.

 
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Buffaloes said:
What if you go WR, WR, WR and if Rodgers is there in the 4th, QB in a PPR league? I've actually been bouncing this idea around lately. If I can get what I estimate as 3 top-15 WRs in PPR, I might jump at the opportunity. Then, I'd like to hedge my bets with a top-flight QB. I know this is a risky proposition but if you can hit big on 1-2 midround backs, you might be able to field a potentially dominant team. Some mock drafts I've done have had some of the following available in the 5-6 round range:McFadden (this is growing less likely by the day)MorenoWard/GrahamAddai/BrownParkerWells/HightowerLarry JohnsonBenson
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Not sure if this is in any order, but hard to see how the split backfields go ahead of LJ. Moreno is hurt right now but obviously you have upside if you want to go that route. I can see McFadden too because of youth and upside - but he will likely share some of the load with Bush.As noted above, there will be a couple value spots in the 4-5 round for RBs, but (1) if someone else takes that guy (and it only takes one owner to do so) then what and (2) while you think its a value guy, there is a reason he is still available that late, and likely because there is some risk involved so if you guess and guess wrong, where are you.
 
Koya said:
Buffaloes said:
What if you go WR, WR, WR and if Rodgers is there in the 4th, QB in a PPR league? I've actually been bouncing this idea around lately. If I can get what I estimate as 3 top-15 WRs in PPR, I might jump at the opportunity. Then, I'd like to hedge my bets with a top-flight QB. I know this is a risky proposition but if you can hit big on 1-2 midround backs, you might be able to field a potentially dominant team. Some mock drafts I've done have had some of the following available in the 5-6 round range:McFadden (this is growing less likely by the day)MorenoWard/GrahamAddai/BrownParkerWells/HightowerLarry JohnsonBenson
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Not sure if this is in any order, but hard to see how the split backfields go ahead of LJ. Moreno is hurt right now but obviously you have upside if you want to go that route. I can see McFadden too because of youth and upside - but he will likely share some of the load with Bush.As noted above, there will be a couple value spots in the 4-5 round for RBs, but (1) if someone else takes that guy (and it only takes one owner to do so) then what and (2) while you think its a value guy, there is a reason he is still available that late, and likely because there is some risk involved so if you guess and guess wrong, where are you.
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No particular order. I should have stated that in my previous post.
 
This is the list of RBs taken starting in the 4th round in the only $$ Redraft league I do.

4.02 38. Public Enemy Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB ® Tue Aug 11 9:41:20 p.m. ET 2009

4.03 39. Brutus Smith, Kevin DET RB Tue Aug 11 9:44:49 p.m. ET 2009

4.08 44. Yoda of Borg McFadden, Darren OAK RB Tue Aug 11 10:29:06 p.m. ET 2009

4.10 46. Kellysmash Bush, Reggie NOS RB Tue Aug 11 10:55:25 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

6.03 63. Brutus Wells, Chris ARI RB ® Wed Aug 12 12:34:18 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

6.07 67. Flying Fish of Death Addai, Joseph IND RB Wed Aug 12 2:27:14 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

6.09 69. PrecisionCFC Johnson, Larry KCC RB Wed Aug 12 6:22:17 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

6.10 70. Kellysmash Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB Wed Aug 12 6:22:17 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

6.11 71. Detroit Jazz Ward, Derrick TBB RB Wed Aug 12 6:22:17 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

7.01 73. Titletown Favres Jones, Thomas NYJ RB Wed Aug 12 6:53:53 p.m. ET 2009

7.06 78. Flying Fish of Death Lewis, Jamal CLE RB Wed Aug 12 9:25:23 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

7.07 79. Snake Eyes Benson, Cedric CIN RB Wed Aug 12 9:30:09 p.m. ET 2009

8.11 95. Detroit Jazz Parker, Willie PIT RB Thu Aug 13 2:28:15 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

9.03 99. Kellysmash Jones, Felix DAL RB Thu Aug 13 5:18:33 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

9.05 101. Yoda of Borg Washington, Leon NYJ RB Thu Aug 13 6:26:12 p.m. ET 2009

9.08 104. Playmakers Brown, Donald IND RB ® Thu Aug 13 6:35:44 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

10.04 112. Sinn Fein Jones, Julius SEA RB Thu Aug 13 9:46:34 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

10.09 117. PrecisionCFC Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB Thu Aug 13 10:03:23 p.m. ET 2009

11.02 122. Detroit Jazz Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB Thu Aug 13 10:46:29 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

11.05 125. Yoda of Borg Sproles, Darren SDC RB Thu Aug 13 11:46:24 p.m. ET 2009 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

12.11 143. Detroit Jazz White, LenDale TEN RB Fri Aug 14 6:43:41 p.m. ET 2009

 
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