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RBs at/near the 4/5 turn - rank ‘em (1 Viewer)

joey

Footballguy
Kind of mentioned this in multiple other RB player threads, but consolidating it here…

If you’re sitting at or near the 4/5 turn, you’re faced with these RBs according to FBG PPR ADP:


43 (-3)Cam AkersLAR/7RB 196435293440
45 (-3)David MontgomeryCHI/14RB 204139343641
46 (+1)J.K. DobbinsBAL/10RB 214951363746
54 (+4)A.J. DillonGB/14RB 22 (+3)4866445356
55 (-2)Josh JacobsLV/6RB 23 (-1)5552434853
56 (-1)Elijah Mitchell

how do you rank them? For me, it‘s:
Jacobs
Dillon
Dobbins
Akers
Mitchell
Montgomery

I guess you might be able to include Hall at the top end if he falls to the late 4th (he’d be at the top of my rankings if so) and maybe with the Robinson shooting injury, maybe Gibson is creeping way up from 6th round ADP, so he would be at the bottom end of my rankings.

Discuss…
 

joey

Footballguy
Every player on this list is an avoid for me except Dillon.

1) Dillon





2)Montgomery
3)Dobbins
4) Mitchell
5) Akers
6) Jacobs

interesting. Mocking from the 1 slot, I find myself going RB/WR/WR half the time, leaving me with the 4/5 turn where I really want to grab my RB2. So I can’t avoid them all, in my mind.
 

EBF

Footballguy
I'm rolling with Jacobs. Simply believe he's the best player on this list. Zamir White is fine, but as far as I can tell, he's just a worse version of Jacobs. I have some fear of Abdullah vulturing pass looks because I've always felt Abdullah is a lot better than people think. All the same, I think the bad buzz has gotten out of hand with Jacobs. He usually delivers a decent season when it's all said and done. Complete back who just lacks a bit of big play sizzle.

Montgomery might be my second choice here simply because of likely volume. I expect Chicago's offense to be BAD, but there aren't a lot of great threats to his role on the roster. By default he should post startable RB2 numbers.

With Dobbins and Akers, they're just such enigmas because of the injuries and lack of track record. Could they be amazing? Sure, but it's hard to know what you're getting. These are the boom or bust picks. High ceiling. Lots of volatility. You'll feel like a genius if they hit. I did like Dobbins a lot before he got hurt, so if he can get back to being that guy, he can be dynamic in PPR.

I'm fading Dillon and Mitchell. Too much RBBC possibility. Jones is still on the Packers and figures to eat into Dillon's numbers. With Mitchell, I'm really not sure he's the best back on the roster. I should probably be giving him more credit for a strong rookie year. That they got rid of Sermon and Hasty shows a certain amount of faith in their other backs. I still feel this could get messy, with the other guys all lurking as threats to supplant him.
 

joey

Footballguy
I'm rolling with Jacobs. Simply believe he's the best player on this list. Zamir White is fine, but as far as I can tell, he's just a worse version of Jacobs. I have some fear of Abdullah vulturing pass looks because I've always felt Abdullah is a lot better than people think. All the same, I think the bad buzz has gotten out of hand with Jacobs. He usually delivers a decent season when it's all said and done. Complete back who just lacks a bit of big play sizzle.

Montgomery might be my second choice here simply because of likely volume. I expect Chicago's offense to be BAD, but there aren't a lot of great threats to his role on the roster. By default he should post startable RB2 numbers.

With Dobbins and Akers, they're just such enigmas because of the injuries and lack of track record. Could they be amazing? Sure, but it's hard to know what you're getting. These are the boom or bust picks. High ceiling. Lots of volatility. You'll feel like a genius if they hit. I did like Dobbins a lot before he got hurt, so if he can get back to being that guy, he can be dynamic in PPR.

I'm fading Dillon and Mitchell. Too much RBBC possibility. Jones is still on the Packers and figures to eat into Dillon's numbers. With Mitchell, I'm really not sure he's the best back on the roster. I should probably be giving him more credit for a strong rookie year. That they got rid of Sermon and Hasty shows a certain amount of faith in their other backs. I still feel this could get messy, with the other guys all lurking as threats to supplant him.
Love this reply. Thanks. and it generally aligns with my rankings and assessment of risk, especiallly coming off injuries.
I only put Dobbins 2nd in this list because I just realized in another thread that he finished RB21 in the same committee last year. but if I were on the spot this second (I’ll be on the spot in around 52 hours ;) ) I’d probably fade Dillon for one of the non-RBBC backs in this group.

knowing me and the league I’m drafting in on Monday night (not TE mandatory, which matters a lot in this decision I think) if I do go RB/WR/WR in the first 3 rounds, I’d like grab TWO from this group of RBs to mitigate risk (and the drop off at RB after this group is pretty precarious (except for specific RBs like Edmonds and Patterson)).
 

TripItUp

Footballguy
1) Mitchell - proven producer on a proven offense
2) Dobbins - best pure runner, but may start slow
3) Jacobs - clear role on top offense
4) Dillon - timeshare lowers ceiling
5)Montgomery - very pessimistic about offense
6) Akers - won't be the same this year and in a timeshare

Handcuffs for the first 3 are cheap
 
Last edited:

VikingFrog

Footballguy

Craig_MiamiFL

Footballguy
Dillon is at the top for me. Good offense / will get goalline and receiving work / great talent with elite upside if Jones goes down.

WIth the others aside Mithcell, it's whomever falls the further is who I may look at. I typically steer away from RB with mobile/rushing QBs so would probably rank Akers/Jacobs next. Dobbins next as view as the most talented of bunch. Then probably Montgomery.

Mitchell is at the bottom for me. I'd just as soon wait on Miles Sanders/Ant Gibson and the like
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
Every player on this list is an avoid for me except Dillon.

1) Dillon





2)Montgomery
3)Dobbins
4) Mitchell
5) Akers
6) Jacobs

interesting. Mocking from the 1 slot, I find myself going RB/WR/WR half the time, leaving me with the 4/5 turn where I really want to grab my RB2. So I can’t avoid them all, in my mind.
It depends on your league structure. If this is a three receiver league I would just hammer WR’s unless there was an RB I loved. If you only start two receivers then running backs become more important. I would like to avoid having to settle for a player.
 

joey

Footballguy
Every player on this list is an avoid for me except Dillon.

1) Dillon





2)Montgomery
3)Dobbins
4) Mitchell
5) Akers
6) Jacobs

interesting. Mocking from the 1 slot, I find myself going RB/WR/WR half the time, leaving me with the 4/5 turn where I really want to grab my RB2. So I can’t avoid them all, in my mind.
It depends on your league structure. If this is a three receiver league I would just hammer WR’s unless there was an RB I loved. If you only start two receivers then running backs become more important. I would like to avoid having to settle for a player.
My league in particular is start 2RB/3Receivers and I’ll admit I still grab a 3rd RB before my 3rd WR which is likely a very old habit I need to break but I still feel like you can find better upside startable WRs than RBs, and RBs get injured more. I have a mental block on this one I fear 😬
 

travdogg

Footballguy
4th round caliber
1. Montgomery

5th round caliber, prefer Chase Edmonds to these guys, and he goes much later
2. Akers
3. Dillon

6th round caliber
4. Mitchell

7th round caliber, prefer guys like Pollard, Hunt and Stevenson to these guys
5. Dobbins
6. Jacobs
 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
Mitchell - I don’t get why he’s being faded, but I seem to be in a minority.
Akers - best RB on a great offense. I get the Achilles, but I’ll bet on the kid.
Jacobs - JMD will get his years use out of him, then rebuild the backfield.
Montgomery - do the Bears like him or Herbert better?
Dillon - still sharing the backfield, clear RB2
Dobbins - will revisit in 2023
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Kind of mentioned this in multiple other RB player threads, but consolidating it here…

If you’re sitting at or near the 4/5 turn, you’re faced with these RBs according to FBG PPR ADP:


43 (-3)Cam AkersLAR/7RB 196435293440
45 (-3)David MontgomeryCHI/14RB 204139343641
46 (+1)J.K. DobbinsBAL/10RB 214951363746
54 (+4)A.J. DillonGB/14RB 22 (+3)4866445356
55 (-2)Josh JacobsLV/6RB 23 (-1)5552434853
56 (-1)Elijah Mitchell

how do you rank them? For me, it‘s:
Jacobs
Dillon
Dobbins
Akers
Mitchell
Montgomery

I guess you might be able to include Hall at the top end if he falls to the late 4th (he’d be at the top of my rankings if so) and maybe with the Robinson shooting injury, maybe Gibson is creeping way up from 6th round ADP, so he would be at the bottom end of my rankings.

Discuss…
Jacobs is the top choice with everything you've seen Josh "Wahoo" McDaniels do in terms of roster cuts in the last week?
I would have cold sweats at night trying to figure out what my role on that team would be and how to keep my starting job.

From the PFN, I googled quickly and that was the first site

Elijah Mitchell, SF​

Elijah Mitchell is set to be the starting running back once again in Kyle Shanahan’s run-friendly scheme. With last year’s third-round pick Trey Sermon cut and claimed off the waiver wire by the Philadelphia Eagles, there’s zero question as to who San Francisco’s primary ball carrier is heading into Week 1.



-Is AJ Dillon the primary? Maybe he is
-Is Dobbins the primary Week 1? They just signed Drake, who knows?
-Ia Akers even available? If you skim thru that player thread, the man is coming back from an Achilles' tear and there doesn't seem to be a lot of precedence for success.
-Monty may very well be the starter but I encourage folks to watch him, you'll pull your hair out the number of times there''s a hole and he doesn't accelerate thru it for any variety of reasons.

Now let's go back to the part I bolded for everyone.
 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
I don't quite get the "hate" on Montgomery.
I know people don't necessarily believe in Fields, but I look at 2 different factors.
Regardless of what you believe, do we NOT think Fields will improve this year??? (At least a little, bear with me)
Everyone talks about how bad he looked last season at times, including the team around him.
HOWEVER, most don't realize that David Montgomery was a TOP 20 RB in standard last season. AND HE MISSED 4 GAMES.
I DO* have him in a couple spots, as my RB3 (or a combo of him and 2-3 others I'll juggle as my RB2) and I'm loving that.
Once the injuries start to set in, league members would KILL to have those RB2 numbers.
And I'm a BIG believer in putting Khalil Herbert on my benches everywhere too.
This may not be the flashiest talent play, but the volume should certainly be there.
 

Judge Smails

Footballguy
Every player on this list is an avoid for me except Dillon.

1) Dillon





2)Montgomery
3)Dobbins
4) Mitchell
5) Akers
6) Jacobs

interesting. Mocking from the 1 slot, I find myself going RB/WR/WR half the time, leaving me with the 4/5 turn where I really want to grab my RB2. So I can’t avoid them all, in my mind.
If you drafted a 2nd RB on the 2/3 turn I think you’ll have a better squad. Tons of receivers in those middle rounds
 

massraider

Footballguy
interesting. Mocking from the 1 slot, I find myself going RB/WR/WR half the time, leaving me with the 4/5 turn where I really want to grab my RB2. So I can’t avoid them all, in my mind
Dillon for me.
But in my leagues, we can start 4 WR, so I'll go stud WRs, and grab some pass catching back later for my RB2.
There are WR there who have top 5 upside. Several.
I HATE having a weak RB room, but at the end of it all, if you have the best WRs, it doesn't matter.
 

joey

Footballguy
If you drafted a 2nd RB on the 2/3 turn I think you’ll have a better squad. Tons of receivers in those middle rounds

yeah, I get it. But if a run on RBs happens back to me in the 2nd (it will) and I’m left looking at the likes of Zeke and Conner, I tend to think grabbing 2 of Evans/Tyreek(if a miracle happens)/KAllen and then come back for one of these RBs, I like the looks of that team bettear since I don’t trust Zeke or Conner so much this year. And I feel that 1 of these 4/5 turn RBs has a good chance of matching Zeke/Conner productivity. Am I crazy?
(Also, we start 3 WRs(receivers) and 0 TEs)

but I hope JWilliams somehow drops to me at the 2/3 turn and then I’ll grab him there.
 

joey

Footballguy
Dillon for me.
But in my leagues, we can start 4 WR, so I'll go stud WRs, and grab some pass catching back later for my RB2.
There are WR there who have top 5 upside. Several.
I HATE having a weak RB room, but at the end of it all, if you have the best WRs, it doesn't matter.
It’s interesting to see a few respected Shark Pool posters (and you too ;) ) pushing for Dillon. Even in a time share with the very highly respected AJones.
if my league started 4 WRs (it doesnt. We start 3) I’d definitely go WR/WR at the 2/3 turn and then adjust from there.
 

Judge Smails

Footballguy
If you drafted a 2nd RB on the 2/3 turn I think you’ll have a better squad. Tons of receivers in those middle rounds

yeah, I get it. But if a run on RBs happens back to me in the 2nd (it will) and I’m left looking at the likes of Zeke and Conner, I tend to think grabbing 2 of Evans/Tyreek(if a miracle happens)/KAllen and then come back for one of these RBs, I like the looks of that team bettear since I don’t trust Zeke or Conner so much this year. And I feel that 1 of these 4/5 turn RBs has a good chance of matching Zeke/Conner productivity. Am I crazy?
(Also, we start 3 WRs(receivers) and 0 TEs)

but I hope JWilliams somehow drops to me at the 2/3 turn and then I’ll grab him there.
I hear you. I have the same potential quandary. Also 3 WR no TE. Fournette is likely my dividing line for 2/3 turn
 

rockaction

Footballguy
In one league, Fournette fell to me at the 2/3 turn and I was ecstatic. Picked up Conner on the turn. That was all that was left for RB, and I'd gone with J. Jefferson at three. Solid start, I think.

To rank the guys you asked about

Mitchell
Montgomery
Dillon
Jacobs
Akers
Dobbins

I'm minimizing risk here. If I'm not, I move Akers up. Dobbins I really think is hurt, though I'm a layman. He sure looked like he was limping in practice the other day.
 

jvdesigns2002

Footballguy
Dillon-Mitchell-Montgomery-Jacobs-Akers-dobbins (His health scares me–i just cant imagine the ravens giving him excessive workloads with what he is recovering from).
 

greenmountaingoat

Footballguy
Montgomery. All we need out of this spot is solid mid tier RB2 numbers. He went first out of these guys (by a bit) in my home league so you'll be paying for a little more certainty of role. I think. Don't love the offense. I think he's the most conservative pick but you're paying for it.

Dillon I think in home leagues you can wait a little and get the same value with some baked in top 6 potential if anything happens with Jones. He went much later in my draft than any of these guys.

Mitchell I love the upside but the injury risk and don't know if he'll get the passing work that will make him a smash in PPR. Usage may be capped because we still haven't seen what SF will do with all of their guys healthy and a running QB.

Jacobs likely goes 2nd in this group but I think the trap door of usage will keep me away. I think his upside is very good, I feel like he's an underrated pass catcher and like the Vegas offense to be one of the more fantasy friendly out there.

Dobbins is obviously the best talent of this group to me but he's not going to be fully healthy (in terms of explosiveness), have limited usage for a while then get his ceiling capped even when he's back. Baltimore could surprise and not rotate 3 backs and start throwing the ball to him but, given he's still recovering, those odds all seem very low. 2nd half of the year, if the BAL offense is rolling, he's going to be a beast but if you're 2-4 that won't matter much.

Akers. I started the offseason as having him as a full fade then started warming to him. Back to full fade. If he was being drafted in the 9th or 10th that would be fine but not a chance I'm drafting him.

In general, when I did my projections, checked my notes from last year and did my full workup of platform ADP vs value over last starter, I ended up not liking the draft value for very many of the RBs from the mid third through the 7th round. None of the ones I liked at cost fell to me so I pounced on Pierce and Edmonds in the 7th/8th.
 

joey

Footballguy
Just had my 12 team, 0.5ppr, draft from the 1 slot, and I didn't even end up taking an RB at the 4/5 turn after all :)

I went:

Taylor
Fournette
Deebo
DIonte
Kyler Murray (the earliest I've taken a QB in this league in as long as I can remember)
AJ Dillon
Thielen

So, of the RBs I mentioned in the OP, they order they went was:
Mitchell 3.11 (9ers homer)
Montgomery 4.6
Jacobs 4.11
Hall 5.4 (didn't mention him in my OP cuz ADP said he's "should've" gone earlier)
Akers 5.5
Damien Harris 5.9 (slight surprise)
Dobbins 6.5
Edmonds 6.11
Dillon 6.12

I hope all you Dillon supporters are right and I got your top guy of this batch 2 rounds later! :)

good luck with your drafts, everyone, and thanks for the replies in this thread.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Just had my 12 team, 0.5ppr, draft from the 1 slot, and I didn't even end up taking an RB at the 4/5 turn after all :)

I went:

Taylor
Fournette
Deebo
DIonte
Kyler Murray (the earliest I've taken a QB in this league in as long as I can remember)
AJ Dillon
Thielen

So, of the RBs I mentioned in the OP, they order they went was:
Mitchell 3.11 (9ers homer)
Montgomery 4.6
Jacobs 4.11
Hall 5.4 (didn't mention him in my OP cuz ADP said he's "should've" gone earlier)
Akers 5.5
Damien Harris 5.9 (slight surprise)
Dobbins 6.5
Edmonds 6.11
Dillon 6.12

I hope all you Dillon supporters are right and I got your top guy of this batch 2 rounds later! :)

good luck with your drafts, everyone, and thanks for the replies in this thread.
I took Burrow in the 6th this year and didn't look back. I wanted him after the first 3-4 QBs came off the board, was not interested in Hurts and Lance types still in the prove it stages.

Taylor-Fournette is terrific 1-2 at RB, would look into R.White the rookie back in Tampa, just keep an eye on him, think he has big upside. AJDillon as an RB3 is ideal. Thielen makes a nice WR3/Flex option as well. Hope you also found some depth and contributors on your bench. Thanks for the insight, good thread and draft position strategy.
 

joey

Footballguy
Just had my 12 team, 0.5ppr, draft from the 1 slot, and I didn't even end up taking an RB at the 4/5 turn after all :)

I went:

Taylor
Fournette
Deebo
DIonte
Kyler Murray (the earliest I've taken a QB in this league in as long as I can remember)
AJ Dillon
Thielen

So, of the RBs I mentioned in the OP, they order they went was:
Mitchell 3.11 (9ers homer)
Montgomery 4.6
Jacobs 4.11
Hall 5.4 (didn't mention him in my OP cuz ADP said he's "should've" gone earlier)
Akers 5.5
Damien Harris 5.9 (slight surprise)
Dobbins 6.5
Edmonds 6.11
Dillon 6.12

I hope all you Dillon supporters are right and I got your top guy of this batch 2 rounds later! :)

good luck with your drafts, everyone, and thanks for the replies in this thread.
I took Burrow in the 6th this year and didn't look back. I wanted him after the first 3-4 QBs came off the board, was not interested in Hurts and Lance types still in the prove it stages.

Taylor-Fournette is terrific 1-2 at RB, would look into R.White the rookie back in Tampa, just keep an eye on him, think he has big upside. AJDillon as an RB3 is ideal. Thielen makes a nice WR3/Flex option as well. Hope you also found some depth and contributors on your bench. Thanks for the insight, good thread and draft position strategy.

thanks MoP.
I actually did grab R White a few rounders later. Here’s the whole thing for those interested in a 1/2 ppr draft from the 1 slot (start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 Receivers, 1 K, 1 D)

Pantloads
1.(1)Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB)
2.(24)Leonard Fournette (TB - RB)
3.(25)Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
4.(48)Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR)
5.(49)Kyler Murray (Ari - QB)
6.(72)AJ Dillon (GB - RB)
7.(73)Adam Thielen (Min - WR)
8.(96)Robert Woods (Ten - WR)
9.(97)Kenneth Walker III (Sea - RB)
10.(120)Khalil Herbert (Chi - RB)
11.(121)Rachaad White (TB - RB)
12.(144)Denver (Den - DEF)
13.(145)Jameson Williams (Det - WR)
14.(168)Skyy Moore (KC - WR)


I had a little young/upside RB run with Walker, Herbert, and R White but the rest of the RBs on the bored were horrible imo. My WRs don’t have me jumping for joy, but I decided to draft J Williams instead of a kicker (moved him to IR after the dr@ft and will grab my top rated K tomorrow morning once yahoo waivers are run and I can get one for free) and a what-the-heck on Skyy Moore.

anyway, that’s how it all worked out. I sure hope that Deebo has a year close to last year but I’m worried about Lance’s affect on his stats as well as his recent discontent with the 9ers. I was really hoping Evans or Tyreek fell to me (they went 1 and 3 picks before my 2.12) and I second guess myself not taking Pittman instead, but Debo has proven to light it up already, so I went with the slam dunk consensus ranking there.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Just had my 12 team, 0.5ppr, draft from the 1 slot, and I didn't even end up taking an RB at the 4/5 turn after all :)

I went:

Taylor
Fournette
Deebo
DIonte
Kyler Murray (the earliest I've taken a QB in this league in as long as I can remember)
AJ Dillon
Thielen

So, of the RBs I mentioned in the OP, they order they went was:
Mitchell 3.11 (9ers homer)
Montgomery 4.6
Jacobs 4.11
Hall 5.4 (didn't mention him in my OP cuz ADP said he's "should've" gone earlier)
Akers 5.5
Damien Harris 5.9 (slight surprise)
Dobbins 6.5
Edmonds 6.11
Dillon 6.12

I hope all you Dillon supporters are right and I got your top guy of this batch 2 rounds later! :)

good luck with your drafts, everyone, and thanks for the replies in this thread.
I took Burrow in the 6th this year and didn't look back. I wanted him after the first 3-4 QBs came off the board, was not interested in Hurts and Lance types still in the prove it stages.

Taylor-Fournette is terrific 1-2 at RB, would look into R.White the rookie back in Tampa, just keep an eye on him, think he has big upside. AJDillon as an RB3 is ideal. Thielen makes a nice WR3/Flex option as well. Hope you also found some depth and contributors on your bench. Thanks for the insight, good thread and draft position strategy.

thanks MoP.
I actually did grab R White a few rounders later. Here’s the whole thing for those interested in a 1/2 ppr draft from the 1 slot (start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 Receivers, 1 K, 1 D)

Pantloads
1.(1)Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB)
2.(24)Leonard Fournette (TB - RB)
3.(25)Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
4.(48)Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR)
5.(49)Kyler Murray (Ari - QB)
6.(72)AJ Dillon (GB - RB)
7.(73)Adam Thielen (Min - WR)
8.(96)Robert Woods (Ten - WR)
9.(97)Kenneth Walker III (Sea - RB)
10.(120)Khalil Herbert (Chi - RB)
11.(121)Rachaad White (TB - RB)
12.(144)Denver (Den - DEF)
13.(145)Jameson Williams (Det - WR)
14.(168)Skyy Moore (KC - WR)


I had a little young/upside RB run with Walker, Herbert, and R White but the rest of the RBs on the bored were horrible imo. My WRs don’t have me jumping for joy, but I decided to draft J Williams instead of a kicker (moved him to IR after the dr@ft and will grab my top rated K tomorrow morning once yahoo waivers are run and I can get one for free) and a what-the-heck on Skyy Moore.

anyway, that’s how it all worked out. I sure hope that Deebo has a year close to last year but I’m worried about Lance’s affect on his stats as well as his recent discontent with the 9ers. I was really hoping Evans or Tyreek fell to me (they went 1 and 3 picks before my 2.12) and I second guess myself not taking Pittman instead, but Debo has proven to light it up already, so I went with the slam dunk consensus ranking there.
I like the upside on the final 2 WRs you drafted. What a short bench and that was a good reason to take Murray in the 5th. You don't want to roster 2 QBs in the 10-15 pack with such a short bench. Walker and White, like the upside and think one will hit.

One word of caution for future drafts and I do like this one but I want to point out you have a lot of Rookies and I usually limit Rookie WRs to just 1, typically same thing for RBs and it has to be a special player for me to invest early in them, like say Najee Harris last year.

It's deep as well, you took chances after you filled out the starters and you can always cut and pick up on the waiver wire if you need to find a veteran bye week or spot start, you might not even need it if somebody hits early.

Good stuff
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
The only ones I would want on my roster would be Mitchell and Dillon, maybe Jacobs (but definitely not at 4/5). And Mitchell is the only one I'd be comfortable having as my RB2.
 

Deranged Hermit

Not cool & Pissed
Dillon and Montgomery are one and two from this list. Two weeks ago Dobbins would have been three, but he scares me to death right now, so I'll go Mitchell.
Jacobs really scares me too, but for different reasons. Right now the Raiders have zero invested in him. He's a two fumble game from not seeing the field again except in garbage time.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Kind of mentioned this in multiple other RB player threads, but consolidating it here…

If you’re sitting at or near the 4/5 turn, you’re faced with these RBs according to FBG PPR ADP:


43 (-3)Cam AkersLAR/7RB 196435293440
45 (-3)David MontgomeryCHI/14RB 204139343641
46 (+1)J.K. DobbinsBAL/10RB 214951363746
54 (+4)A.J. DillonGB/14RB 22 (+3)4866445356
55 (-2)Josh JacobsLV/6RB 23 (-1)5552434853
56 (-1)Elijah Mitchell

how do you rank them? For me, it‘s:
Jacobs
Dillon
Dobbins
Akers
Mitchell
Montgomery

I guess you might be able to include Hall at the top end if he falls to the late 4th (he’d be at the top of my rankings if so) and maybe with the Robinson shooting injury, maybe Gibson is creeping way up from 6th round ADP, so he would be at the bottom end of my rankings.

Discuss…

I'm rolling with Jacobs. Simply believe he's the best player on this list. Zamir White is fine, but as far as I can tell, he's just a worse version of Jacobs. I have some fear of Abdullah vulturing pass looks because I've always felt Abdullah is a lot better than people think. All the same, I think the bad buzz has gotten out of hand with Jacobs. He usually delivers a decent season when it's all said and done. Complete back who just lacks a bit of big play sizzle.

Montgomery might be my second choice here simply because of likely volume. I expect Chicago's offense to be BAD, but there aren't a lot of great threats to his role on the roster. By default he should post startable RB2 numbers.

With Dobbins and Akers, they're just such enigmas because of the injuries and lack of track record. Could they be amazing? Sure, but it's hard to know what you're getting. These are the boom or bust picks. High ceiling. Lots of volatility. You'll feel like a genius if they hit. I did like Dobbins a lot before he got hurt, so if he can get back to being that guy, he can be dynamic in PPR.

I'm fading Dillon and Mitchell. Too much RBBC possibility. Jones is still on the Packers and figures to eat into Dillon's numbers. With Mitchell, I'm really not sure he's the best back on the roster. I should probably be giving him more credit for a strong rookie year. That they got rid of Sermon and Hasty shows a certain amount of faith in their other backs. I still feel this could get messy, with the other guys all lurking as threats to supplant him.

Nice call guys.
 

tricky92

Footballguy
I'm rolling with Jacobs. Simply believe he's the best player on this list. Zamir White is fine, but as far as I can tell, he's just a worse version of Jacobs. I have some fear of Abdullah vulturing pass looks because I've always felt Abdullah is a lot better than people think. All the same, I think the bad buzz has gotten out of hand with Jacobs. He usually delivers a decent season when it's all said and done. Complete back who just lacks a bit of big play sizzle.

Montgomery might be my second choice here simply because of likely volume. I expect Chicago's offense to be BAD, but there aren't a lot of great threats to his role on the roster. By default he should post startable RB2 numbers.

With Dobbins and Akers, they're just such enigmas because of the injuries and lack of track record. Could they be amazing? Sure, but it's hard to know what you're getting. These are the boom or bust picks. High ceiling. Lots of volatility. You'll feel like a genius if they hit. I did like Dobbins a lot before he got hurt, so if he can get back to being that guy, he can be dynamic in PPR.

I'm fading Dillon and Mitchell. Too much RBBC possibility. Jones is still on the Packers and figures to eat into Dillon's numbers. With Mitchell, I'm really not sure he's the best back on the roster. I should probably be giving him more credit for a strong rookie year. That they got rid of Sermon and Hasty shows a certain amount of faith in their other backs. I still feel this could get messy, with the other guys all lurking as threats to supplant him.

I feel like I should be paying you money next year to build my pre-draft cheat sheet! Amazing analysis.
 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
Had a ton of conviction on Jacobs but didn't land him anywhere.

Shouldn't we listen to our own lines of thought and rather be wrong than to be a coward?
 

tricky92

Footballguy
Shouldn't we listen to our own lines of thought and rather be wrong than to be a coward?

This is how I used to manage in-season when I was younger, and won championships because of it... and have definitely been more "cowardly" the past few seasons and went with consensus and have been wrong as a result. Did the same thing last week when I knew I should have started Taysom Hill over Waller and didn't (and lost as a result).
 

joey

Footballguy
Kind of mentioned this in multiple other RB player threads, but consolidating it here…

If you’re sitting at or near the 4/5 turn, you’re faced with these RBs according to FBG PPR ADP:


43 (-3)Cam AkersLAR/7RB 196435293440
45 (-3)David MontgomeryCHI/14RB 204139343641
46 (+1)J.K. DobbinsBAL/10RB 214951363746
54 (+4)A.J. DillonGB/14RB 22 (+3)4866445356
55 (-2)Josh JacobsLV/6RB 23 (-1)5552434853
56 (-1)Elijah Mitchell

how do you rank them? For me, it‘s:
Jacobs
Dillon
Dobbins
Akers
Mitchell
Montgomery

I guess you might be able to include Hall at the top end if he falls to the late 4th (he’d be at the top of my rankings if so) and maybe with the Robinson shooting injury, maybe Gibson is creeping way up from 6th round ADP, so he would be at the bottom end of my rankings.

Discuss…

I'm rolling with Jacobs. Simply believe he's the best player on this list. Zamir White is fine, but as far as I can tell, he's just a worse version of Jacobs. I have some fear of Abdullah vulturing pass looks because I've always felt Abdullah is a lot better than people think. All the same, I think the bad buzz has gotten out of hand with Jacobs. He usually delivers a decent season when it's all said and done. Complete back who just lacks a bit of big play sizzle.

Montgomery might be my second choice here simply because of likely volume. I expect Chicago's offense to be BAD, but there aren't a lot of great threats to his role on the roster. By default he should post startable RB2 numbers.

With Dobbins and Akers, they're just such enigmas because of the injuries and lack of track record. Could they be amazing? Sure, but it's hard to know what you're getting. These are the boom or bust picks. High ceiling. Lots of volatility. You'll feel like a genius if they hit. I did like Dobbins a lot before he got hurt, so if he can get back to being that guy, he can be dynamic in PPR.

I'm fading Dillon and Mitchell. Too much RBBC possibility. Jones is still on the Packers and figures to eat into Dillon's numbers. With Mitchell, I'm really not sure he's the best back on the roster. I should probably be giving him more credit for a strong rookie year. That they got rid of Sermon and Hasty shows a certain amount of faith in their other backs. I still feel this could get messy, with the other guys all lurking as threats to supplant him.

Nice call guys.
Thanks, man.

The funny thing is I didn’t land Jacobs at the 4/5 turn in the main redraft league I was referring to in this thread. He literally went at the 4.11 :(
BUT, in my only auction redraft league, I landed Jacobs. So at least I followed my gut and landed him in 1 league.
 

Dickies

Footballguy
I was stoked to get Jacobs at 5.5 in my 12 person league. Mitchell was taken at the start of the 4th by a 49ers homer and Dillon was taken 5.2. After I took Jacobs the next three picks were Akers, Montgomery and Dobbins in that order.

Never understood why people were so high on Dillon with Jones in the picture.
 

Pip's Invitation

Footballguy
I was stoked to get Jacobs at 5.5 in my 12 person league. Mitchell was taken at the start of the 4th by a 49ers homer and Dillon was taken 5.2. After I took Jacobs the next three picks were Akers, Montgomery and Dobbins in that order.

Never understood why people were so high on Dillon with Jones in the picture.
Probably because he did well last year even with Jones around, and the Packers were expected to run more due to lack of talent at WR.

Anyway, the correct answer was Jacobs and most of us were wrong.
 

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