Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let’s look at how teams are looking in the preseason. I realize they are preseason games but I think the 1st half of most of these games does tell a lot on whether teams have made some progress in the off season or not.
AFC East
New England: They are just mowing teams down. I still question the secondary a little bit but they are going to stop the run and any talk of the Patriots demise has been greatly exaggerated. As a Phins fan I was hoping we would unseat them this year…not so sure that’s gonna happen.
Miami: Their defense against the run is solid…but they have some holes in the secondary. Luckily they have a lot of offensive firepower and Chambers is looking like a great WR to repeat his work from a year ago.
NY Jets: The Jets 1st team defense is not playing that bad. We are always quick to dismiss teams like the Jets based on last year…and last year they had no running game, no passing game, defense was most likely on the field a lot…maybe the Jets are a decent team this season. If Penny stays under center all year and Barlow is decent maybe they can win 7-8 games. My point is their defense is not one of the 5 worst in the league right now and should probably be viewed as nothing less than a neutral type match up and not a cupcake necessarily.
Buffalo: They have looked bad. This defense is nothing like what they were 2 years ago. Don’t forget that Takeo Spikes is coming back from a terrible injury that will probably not allow him to push off with the same intensity he used to. Their DL is putrid and that makes a so so secondary worse because they have to cover a lot longer. I see Buffalo as a cupcake defense right now for most teams facing them…I also think it will help guys like Lee Evans put together breakout years because they will be playing from behind.
AFC North
Pittsburgh: Certainly will not have the same intensity coming off a SB win, but their defense is solid and a difficult match up for most teams.
Baltimore: They will be tough as usual.
Cincinnati: Once again they are showing that the defense is behind…far behind the offense, and that’s great news for FF owners. I wouldn’t hesitate starting anyone against Cinci…ANYONE.
Cleveland: I think their defense will be better. Their ground game despite not having a Center looks OK right now. Frye under center is not going to bode well for the season though and eventually that stuff catches up. Cleveland is not a cupcake on defense…probably neutral match ups for most of your weeks.
AFC South
Indy: Does it matter? I think they will be good on defense but not great…pleanty of shootouts. They won’t be shutting teams out with their defense often though.
Jax: They look tough again. Not world beaters but they have an awful tough DL that makes things easier for their secondary.
Tennessee: They have given up 51 points in the 1st half of 3 games total this preseason. Not too good and RB are having their best games against the Titans…they look like must starts against. Problem for Volek and Bennett owners is if the Titans are awful against the run, teams will simply put together long drives and keep them on the sidelines…I’m saying don’t assume Titans WR/QBs are awesome selections because of their pitiful defense. Inability to stop the run spells doom most of the time IMO.
Houston: They still are going to have problems on defense but they may not be quite the pushover they were of a year ago. Probably worse at stopping the pass than run.
AFC West
Denver: Not easy to run the offense against. Great collection of LB/DBs…Ian Gold, Al Wilson and DJ Williams make a fine trio of LB. Bailey and Lynch in the secondary…so so DL but they are backed up by a great group. Not fun to go up against on Sundays.
San Diego: Hard to tell. They gave up turnovers on offense in their own territory against a good Seattle team…I like San Diego on defense for the most part. They still have secondary problems but they are not fun at all to run against. Shawn Merriman is an absolute animal…guy has a serious motor.
Kansas City: Here’s their problem. They have Surtain and Ty Law which makes a great pair of CBs. However their DL is really bad. Sims has been a bust as far as I’m concerned, Dalton, Allen, Hicks, Browing, Edwards, none of this is exciting. Law and Surtain will get their interceptions but they are going to give up big plays too because of the ineffectiveness of this OL and also the Knight/Wesley safety combo doesn’t thrill anyone either. Cupcake? Maybe not but they are not all that improved.
Oakland: I don’t care what they showed against SF and Detroit…both of those offenses are very marginal at best. They are going to give up a lot of points and if FF owners are lucky they will be able to score…but again Det and SF are more in the bottom of the league on defense.
NFC East
Washington: They will be solid when the season rolls around. Gibbs is notorious for losing his preseason games…in fact when the Skins have won their Super Bowls they usually don’t win a game in the preseason. They will be tough.
Dallas: Every Cowboys fan I know said they were going to be awesome on defense this year. SO far I think they are dead on. I take bake anything I ever said that was snide about the Dallas Defense. They look really good against the run, still may be suspect in the secondary but that wouldn’t be a problem for Bledsoe and Glenn owners right now.
NY Giants: Solid. They will get into some shootouts through the season. I don’t see them as world beaters this season.
Philly: They look better than last season but this still seems like the worst of the 4 defenses within its division. Their secondary is talented…far better than their LB crew right now.
NFC North
Chicago: Terrible…just kidding, they’re probably one of the top3-5 defenses in the NFL and you don’t need me to tell you that…not a good match up for your offensive weapons on Sundays.
Minnesota: Their defense will be better than their offense.
Detroit: Their weakness has been and still is their secondary. They are going to get passed on and maybe that will play over for their offense to do some things…problem there is their OL is not real good. But on defense you can’t shy away from starting anyone against the Lions right now.
GB: Not horrific from what we have seen. GB will be a start for anyone you have on your team most weeks.
NFC South
Carolina: Tough…real tough…especially against the run.
Tampa Bay: They shutout JAX on Saturday…final score didn’t show that. They are going to give people fits…great DL, LB, and DBs…they will be tough.
Atlanta: Still having a lot of problems stopping the run…secondary is tough and their DL will get pressure allowing the secondary to do even better. However if they cannot stop the run, big big trouble ahead.
New Orleans: Leading candidate for bottom 3-5 defenses in the league right now.
NFC West
Seattle: Peterson and Tatupu really make a deadly tandem at LB. Now you look at what Turner did and you say maybe Seattle’s defense is suspect…I look at it differently. The Chargers have a lot of talent on offense and I think they will run on most teams. Seattle has a good solid defense.
Arizona: Below average across the board for right now. Should be in a lot of shootouts.
St.Louis: Terrible. You want to run, no problem, you want to pass, no problem.
San Fran: Awful. How does so much bad defense accumulate in 1 division.
Rushing Defenses:
Good to Excellent
New England
Miami
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
JAX
Denver
San Diego
Washington
Dallas
Chicago
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Seattle
That’s 13 teams that are not going to be optimum match ups. Obviously if you have a stud you should start him but these defenses appear to be the toughest to run on so far.
Below Avg to Poor
Buffalo
Cinci
Tennessee
Houston
Oakland
Green Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans
Arizona
St Louis
San Fran
11 teams that would appear to be the weakest against the run so far. Many were spotted way back in April.
Teams not listed IMO are somewhere in the middle…NYJ, Cle, Indy, KC, Philly, MN, Det,
Passing defenses
Good to Excellent
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
JAX
Denver
Washington
Chicago
Minnesota
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Seattle
These 11 teams have the best pass defense…sometimes because they have such a great pass rush.
Below Avg to Poor
NY Jets
Buffalo
Cinci
Cleveland
Tennessee
Houston
Kansas City
Oakland
Detroit
New Orleans
Arizona
St Louis
San Fran
These 13 teams should evoke no fear when you are setting your line ups on Saturday Nights.
OK, so I told you that to set up the rest of this.
I feel as I am sure many of you do that it’s a lot easier to win if you come out of the box hot…especially if you have players that were maybe drafted a little later in the 5th-10th rounds that come out of the box hot. A lot of times you can trade these players who you know won’t stay that hot who have been beating inferior defenses.
So I thought I would start with the RBs and see who might have trouble and cost you some early season victories and possibly may just not have as a good as season as we hoped. And also those teams that really do have a soft schedule. Let’s use ADP and go from there.
Larry Johnson: Cinci, @Denver, Bye, SF, @AZ…other than the Denver game and a bye week, it looks like LJ will benefit from a soft schedule early in the season. That’s good because weeks 6,7, and 8 he will face @Pitt, SD, and Seattle.
Shaun Alexander: @Det, AZ, NYG, @Chi, Bye…his schedule is pretty average at best but it’s Shaun and you are not gonna be playing match up with him much. His schedule gets better after the bye week. @St.Louis, MN, @KC, OAK, St.Louis, @SF, GB…that should be fun for SA owners.
LaDainian Tomlinson: @Oak, TN, BYE, @Balt, Pitt…the 1st 2 games will be pinball games for him…Balt and Pitt won’t be fun but as long as he gets out of them without too many knicks he’ll be fine. Then it’s @SF, @KC, St.Louis, CLEVE, @Cinci…LT owners have nothing to fear.
Tiki Barber: Indy, @Philly, @Seattle, Bye, Wash…not super easy games. It’s Tiki so your likely to start him every week reguardless of who they play. The Giants do not have the easiest of schedules and do play in a very tough division.
Steven Jackson: DEN, @SF, @AZ, DET, @GB…after the Broncos it looks like pretty smooth sailing. He should make owners look smart for taking him as long as his little nagging injuries don’t persist.
Ronnie Brown: @Pitt, BUFF, TEN, @Hou, @NE…sandwiched between Pitt and NE are 3 very nice games. Brown owners will be on a bit of a roller coaster this season but he has plenty of soft run defenses throughout the season.
Clinton Portis: MN, @Dallas, @Hou, JAX, @NYG…mix of good and hard here. Still has a very soft run schedule towards the end of the year and playoffs when he should certainly be beyond his shoulder injury.
Edge: SF, @Seattle, StLouis, @ATL, KC…can the OL perform at all? AZ has a very very very soft schedule for the run and the pass…Edge has looked terrible in preseason but don’t be surprised if all of that matters little when the season opens.
Rudi Johnson: @KC, CLE, @Pitt, NE, Bye…the Bengals offense is a must start…he also seems to do well even against the better defenses…he has a talented OL in front of him blocking.
LaMont Jordan: SD, @Balt, Bye, CLE, @SF…the 1st 3 weeks are gonna hurt owners that took him in the 1st round. I expect him to perform poorly vs SD and Balt…a bye week, then some relief. There will be a lot of FF owners crying the Jordan blues the 1st couple weeks of the season. He then faces Denver (2), Pitt, and Seattle in 4 of his next 5 games…this could be a long season. He should be a guy owners tuck away though for a trade to get towards the end of the season…wks 13, 14, 15, 16 he faces HOU, @Cinci, St. Louis, KC…should do very well along with the Oakland pass attack in those games.
“Cadillac” Williams: Appears to likely get pulled at the goal line this year…just want to point that out…Alstott is a real TD vulture for him. BALT, @Atl, CAR, Bye, @NO…2 hard games and a bye week will not help owners. He is a candidate to come out of the box a little slow. Has a stretch this season @Car, WASH, @Dallas, @Pitt, @Chicago…Yikes!
Willis McGahee: @NE, @Miami, NYJ, MN, @Chicago…kind of a rough start for McGahee…could be a long season for Buffalo in general.
Brian Westbrook: @Hou, NYG, @SF, GB, Dallas…the rush schedule is not as important as the pass…I think McNabb owners are going to think they got a steal in the 5th round this season.
Reggie Bush: Is he the starter? @Cle, @GB, ATL, @Car, TB…1st 3 games look pretty good. Closes the season with @Dallas, WASH, @NYG, CAR…has a lot of tough match ups throughout the season but he could come out of the box hot. Is he the starter?
Kevin Jones: SEA, @Chi, GB, @St. Louis, @MN…2 rather difficult match ups to start the season and then it gets a lot easier…BUFF, @NYJ and a bye the next 3 weeks. Kevin Jones will have some real nice match ups after weeks 1 and 2. Might be able to snare him from a panicked owner after week 2.
Chester Taylor: @Wash, CAR, CHI, @Buff, DET…rough 1st 3 weeks of the season…he might be a guy that was your RB2 that you think of benching early in the season. Schedule mellows out a little bit in the 2nd half of the season but it looks like Taylor has a good chance of puttering the first few weeks of the season.
Willie Parker: Miami, @Jax, Cinci, Bye, @SD…might not get a lot for 4 out of the 1st 5 weeks with FWP. Would not be a candidate to come out of the box hot.
Dom Davis: On my personal PUP list for right now.
Jamal Lewis: @TB, OAK, @Cle, SD, @Denver…not an easy start to the season.
Julius Jones: @JAX, Wash, Bye, @TN, @Philly…not looking great for the start of the season. Dallas seems set to take it to the air if need be.
Reuben Droughns: NO, @Cinci, BALT, @Oak, @Car…2 tough ones and 3 pretty good ones…NO and Cinci to open the season…I expect to see Droughns in the top10-15 of RB for the 1st couple weeks of the season. Closes the season @Pitt, @Balt, TB, @Hou…weeks 14-16 are almost assured as no starts…Droughns owners would be wise to milk a few good games from him and then possibly trade him if they think they are going to be playoff contenders.
Warrick Dunn: @Car, TB, @NO, AZ, Bye…rough 1st 2 weeks for owners. @Balt, @Wash, @TB, Dallas, Carolina…he could be really worthless towards the end of the season when you look at those teams I just put up. I understand Atlanta has a good OL and can run the ball but I am going to be looking to move Dunn either before the season since he is worth a lot right now without Duckett there, or shortly after the NO and AZ games where he should look good.
DeShaun Foster: ATL, @MN, @TB, NO, CLE…should do very well. The Panthers are not going to be a team you look at match ups all the time, they have a solid offense and a terrific defense which will create lots of opps for short fields for the offense.
Corey Dillon: BUFF, @NYJ, DEN, @Cinci, MIAMI…should start off well…Denver and Miami are at home…Dillon stays healthy he will pay dividends far better than where he was drafted.
Frank Gore: @AZ, ST. Louis, PHI, @KC, OAK…looks like he might get off the blocks quick as well. @St. Louis, @NO, GB, @Seattle, AZ to close out the season…Gore may really surprise some folks. Dark horse for top10.
Joseph Addai: Not sure he’s even the starter…who cares who the Colts play, you start ‘em no matter what.
Tatum Bell/Mike Bell: @St. Louis, KC, @NE, Bye, BAL…again with Denver you just start whoever Shanny says is their starter…the match ups are not as big a concern.
T.Jones/C.Benson: @GB, DET, @MN, SEA, BUFF, @AZ…pretty decent set up for a conservative offense. TJ if healthy will look good early for the Bears.
Fred Taylor: DAL, PITT, @Indy, @Wash, NYJ…Dallas and Pittsburgh to open the season…YUCK! Gonna be a rough go early for Taylor.
Chris Brown/LenDale White/Travis Henry: NYJ, @SD, @Miami, Dallas, @Indy…don’t know who will get the bulk of the work and it’s not an easy schedule.
Ahaman Green: CHI, NO, @Det, @Philly, St. Louis…after Chicago he has some pretty nice waters he sails into after that. If he has recovered from his injury he has a good chance to produce…FF owners that passed on him might groan thru the 1st 5 weeks. NYJ, @SF, DET, MN to carry through the playoffs…no reason the schedule will not allow him to bounce back…it’s a matter of if he has recovered.
Kevan Barlow: @TN, NE, @Buff, INDY, @Jax…mix of sorts here. The key will be Ferguson and Mangold on the OL…if they can gel quickly the Jets might be able to run the ball with some effectiveness. It is Barlow though so don’t hold your breath too much.
So some are going to ask what is the point? I feel you want to come out strong, and when you get stuck with players that are not producing, and you can't trade them...by the time they get on track it could be too late...buying low and selling high s an absolute key to many a good season. being able to possibly spot early trends can keep you ahead of the pack.
OK, discuss.
AFC East
New England: They are just mowing teams down. I still question the secondary a little bit but they are going to stop the run and any talk of the Patriots demise has been greatly exaggerated. As a Phins fan I was hoping we would unseat them this year…not so sure that’s gonna happen.
Miami: Their defense against the run is solid…but they have some holes in the secondary. Luckily they have a lot of offensive firepower and Chambers is looking like a great WR to repeat his work from a year ago.
NY Jets: The Jets 1st team defense is not playing that bad. We are always quick to dismiss teams like the Jets based on last year…and last year they had no running game, no passing game, defense was most likely on the field a lot…maybe the Jets are a decent team this season. If Penny stays under center all year and Barlow is decent maybe they can win 7-8 games. My point is their defense is not one of the 5 worst in the league right now and should probably be viewed as nothing less than a neutral type match up and not a cupcake necessarily.
Buffalo: They have looked bad. This defense is nothing like what they were 2 years ago. Don’t forget that Takeo Spikes is coming back from a terrible injury that will probably not allow him to push off with the same intensity he used to. Their DL is putrid and that makes a so so secondary worse because they have to cover a lot longer. I see Buffalo as a cupcake defense right now for most teams facing them…I also think it will help guys like Lee Evans put together breakout years because they will be playing from behind.
AFC North
Pittsburgh: Certainly will not have the same intensity coming off a SB win, but their defense is solid and a difficult match up for most teams.
Baltimore: They will be tough as usual.
Cincinnati: Once again they are showing that the defense is behind…far behind the offense, and that’s great news for FF owners. I wouldn’t hesitate starting anyone against Cinci…ANYONE.
Cleveland: I think their defense will be better. Their ground game despite not having a Center looks OK right now. Frye under center is not going to bode well for the season though and eventually that stuff catches up. Cleveland is not a cupcake on defense…probably neutral match ups for most of your weeks.
AFC South
Indy: Does it matter? I think they will be good on defense but not great…pleanty of shootouts. They won’t be shutting teams out with their defense often though.
Jax: They look tough again. Not world beaters but they have an awful tough DL that makes things easier for their secondary.
Tennessee: They have given up 51 points in the 1st half of 3 games total this preseason. Not too good and RB are having their best games against the Titans…they look like must starts against. Problem for Volek and Bennett owners is if the Titans are awful against the run, teams will simply put together long drives and keep them on the sidelines…I’m saying don’t assume Titans WR/QBs are awesome selections because of their pitiful defense. Inability to stop the run spells doom most of the time IMO.
Houston: They still are going to have problems on defense but they may not be quite the pushover they were of a year ago. Probably worse at stopping the pass than run.
AFC West
Denver: Not easy to run the offense against. Great collection of LB/DBs…Ian Gold, Al Wilson and DJ Williams make a fine trio of LB. Bailey and Lynch in the secondary…so so DL but they are backed up by a great group. Not fun to go up against on Sundays.
San Diego: Hard to tell. They gave up turnovers on offense in their own territory against a good Seattle team…I like San Diego on defense for the most part. They still have secondary problems but they are not fun at all to run against. Shawn Merriman is an absolute animal…guy has a serious motor.
Kansas City: Here’s their problem. They have Surtain and Ty Law which makes a great pair of CBs. However their DL is really bad. Sims has been a bust as far as I’m concerned, Dalton, Allen, Hicks, Browing, Edwards, none of this is exciting. Law and Surtain will get their interceptions but they are going to give up big plays too because of the ineffectiveness of this OL and also the Knight/Wesley safety combo doesn’t thrill anyone either. Cupcake? Maybe not but they are not all that improved.
Oakland: I don’t care what they showed against SF and Detroit…both of those offenses are very marginal at best. They are going to give up a lot of points and if FF owners are lucky they will be able to score…but again Det and SF are more in the bottom of the league on defense.
NFC East
Washington: They will be solid when the season rolls around. Gibbs is notorious for losing his preseason games…in fact when the Skins have won their Super Bowls they usually don’t win a game in the preseason. They will be tough.
Dallas: Every Cowboys fan I know said they were going to be awesome on defense this year. SO far I think they are dead on. I take bake anything I ever said that was snide about the Dallas Defense. They look really good against the run, still may be suspect in the secondary but that wouldn’t be a problem for Bledsoe and Glenn owners right now.
NY Giants: Solid. They will get into some shootouts through the season. I don’t see them as world beaters this season.
Philly: They look better than last season but this still seems like the worst of the 4 defenses within its division. Their secondary is talented…far better than their LB crew right now.
NFC North
Chicago: Terrible…just kidding, they’re probably one of the top3-5 defenses in the NFL and you don’t need me to tell you that…not a good match up for your offensive weapons on Sundays.
Minnesota: Their defense will be better than their offense.
Detroit: Their weakness has been and still is their secondary. They are going to get passed on and maybe that will play over for their offense to do some things…problem there is their OL is not real good. But on defense you can’t shy away from starting anyone against the Lions right now.
GB: Not horrific from what we have seen. GB will be a start for anyone you have on your team most weeks.
NFC South
Carolina: Tough…real tough…especially against the run.
Tampa Bay: They shutout JAX on Saturday…final score didn’t show that. They are going to give people fits…great DL, LB, and DBs…they will be tough.
Atlanta: Still having a lot of problems stopping the run…secondary is tough and their DL will get pressure allowing the secondary to do even better. However if they cannot stop the run, big big trouble ahead.
New Orleans: Leading candidate for bottom 3-5 defenses in the league right now.
NFC West
Seattle: Peterson and Tatupu really make a deadly tandem at LB. Now you look at what Turner did and you say maybe Seattle’s defense is suspect…I look at it differently. The Chargers have a lot of talent on offense and I think they will run on most teams. Seattle has a good solid defense.
Arizona: Below average across the board for right now. Should be in a lot of shootouts.
St.Louis: Terrible. You want to run, no problem, you want to pass, no problem.
San Fran: Awful. How does so much bad defense accumulate in 1 division.
Rushing Defenses:
Good to Excellent
New England
Miami
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
JAX
Denver
San Diego
Washington
Dallas
Chicago
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Seattle
That’s 13 teams that are not going to be optimum match ups. Obviously if you have a stud you should start him but these defenses appear to be the toughest to run on so far.
Below Avg to Poor
Buffalo
Cinci
Tennessee
Houston
Oakland
Green Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans
Arizona
St Louis
San Fran
11 teams that would appear to be the weakest against the run so far. Many were spotted way back in April.
Teams not listed IMO are somewhere in the middle…NYJ, Cle, Indy, KC, Philly, MN, Det,
Passing defenses
Good to Excellent
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
JAX
Denver
Washington
Chicago
Minnesota
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Seattle
These 11 teams have the best pass defense…sometimes because they have such a great pass rush.
Below Avg to Poor
NY Jets
Buffalo
Cinci
Cleveland
Tennessee
Houston
Kansas City
Oakland
Detroit
New Orleans
Arizona
St Louis
San Fran
These 13 teams should evoke no fear when you are setting your line ups on Saturday Nights.
OK, so I told you that to set up the rest of this.
I feel as I am sure many of you do that it’s a lot easier to win if you come out of the box hot…especially if you have players that were maybe drafted a little later in the 5th-10th rounds that come out of the box hot. A lot of times you can trade these players who you know won’t stay that hot who have been beating inferior defenses.
So I thought I would start with the RBs and see who might have trouble and cost you some early season victories and possibly may just not have as a good as season as we hoped. And also those teams that really do have a soft schedule. Let’s use ADP and go from there.
Larry Johnson: Cinci, @Denver, Bye, SF, @AZ…other than the Denver game and a bye week, it looks like LJ will benefit from a soft schedule early in the season. That’s good because weeks 6,7, and 8 he will face @Pitt, SD, and Seattle.
Shaun Alexander: @Det, AZ, NYG, @Chi, Bye…his schedule is pretty average at best but it’s Shaun and you are not gonna be playing match up with him much. His schedule gets better after the bye week. @St.Louis, MN, @KC, OAK, St.Louis, @SF, GB…that should be fun for SA owners.
LaDainian Tomlinson: @Oak, TN, BYE, @Balt, Pitt…the 1st 2 games will be pinball games for him…Balt and Pitt won’t be fun but as long as he gets out of them without too many knicks he’ll be fine. Then it’s @SF, @KC, St.Louis, CLEVE, @Cinci…LT owners have nothing to fear.
Tiki Barber: Indy, @Philly, @Seattle, Bye, Wash…not super easy games. It’s Tiki so your likely to start him every week reguardless of who they play. The Giants do not have the easiest of schedules and do play in a very tough division.
Steven Jackson: DEN, @SF, @AZ, DET, @GB…after the Broncos it looks like pretty smooth sailing. He should make owners look smart for taking him as long as his little nagging injuries don’t persist.
Ronnie Brown: @Pitt, BUFF, TEN, @Hou, @NE…sandwiched between Pitt and NE are 3 very nice games. Brown owners will be on a bit of a roller coaster this season but he has plenty of soft run defenses throughout the season.
Clinton Portis: MN, @Dallas, @Hou, JAX, @NYG…mix of good and hard here. Still has a very soft run schedule towards the end of the year and playoffs when he should certainly be beyond his shoulder injury.
Edge: SF, @Seattle, StLouis, @ATL, KC…can the OL perform at all? AZ has a very very very soft schedule for the run and the pass…Edge has looked terrible in preseason but don’t be surprised if all of that matters little when the season opens.
Rudi Johnson: @KC, CLE, @Pitt, NE, Bye…the Bengals offense is a must start…he also seems to do well even against the better defenses…he has a talented OL in front of him blocking.
LaMont Jordan: SD, @Balt, Bye, CLE, @SF…the 1st 3 weeks are gonna hurt owners that took him in the 1st round. I expect him to perform poorly vs SD and Balt…a bye week, then some relief. There will be a lot of FF owners crying the Jordan blues the 1st couple weeks of the season. He then faces Denver (2), Pitt, and Seattle in 4 of his next 5 games…this could be a long season. He should be a guy owners tuck away though for a trade to get towards the end of the season…wks 13, 14, 15, 16 he faces HOU, @Cinci, St. Louis, KC…should do very well along with the Oakland pass attack in those games.
“Cadillac” Williams: Appears to likely get pulled at the goal line this year…just want to point that out…Alstott is a real TD vulture for him. BALT, @Atl, CAR, Bye, @NO…2 hard games and a bye week will not help owners. He is a candidate to come out of the box a little slow. Has a stretch this season @Car, WASH, @Dallas, @Pitt, @Chicago…Yikes!
Willis McGahee: @NE, @Miami, NYJ, MN, @Chicago…kind of a rough start for McGahee…could be a long season for Buffalo in general.
Brian Westbrook: @Hou, NYG, @SF, GB, Dallas…the rush schedule is not as important as the pass…I think McNabb owners are going to think they got a steal in the 5th round this season.
Reggie Bush: Is he the starter? @Cle, @GB, ATL, @Car, TB…1st 3 games look pretty good. Closes the season with @Dallas, WASH, @NYG, CAR…has a lot of tough match ups throughout the season but he could come out of the box hot. Is he the starter?
Kevin Jones: SEA, @Chi, GB, @St. Louis, @MN…2 rather difficult match ups to start the season and then it gets a lot easier…BUFF, @NYJ and a bye the next 3 weeks. Kevin Jones will have some real nice match ups after weeks 1 and 2. Might be able to snare him from a panicked owner after week 2.
Chester Taylor: @Wash, CAR, CHI, @Buff, DET…rough 1st 3 weeks of the season…he might be a guy that was your RB2 that you think of benching early in the season. Schedule mellows out a little bit in the 2nd half of the season but it looks like Taylor has a good chance of puttering the first few weeks of the season.
Willie Parker: Miami, @Jax, Cinci, Bye, @SD…might not get a lot for 4 out of the 1st 5 weeks with FWP. Would not be a candidate to come out of the box hot.
Dom Davis: On my personal PUP list for right now.
Jamal Lewis: @TB, OAK, @Cle, SD, @Denver…not an easy start to the season.
Julius Jones: @JAX, Wash, Bye, @TN, @Philly…not looking great for the start of the season. Dallas seems set to take it to the air if need be.
Reuben Droughns: NO, @Cinci, BALT, @Oak, @Car…2 tough ones and 3 pretty good ones…NO and Cinci to open the season…I expect to see Droughns in the top10-15 of RB for the 1st couple weeks of the season. Closes the season @Pitt, @Balt, TB, @Hou…weeks 14-16 are almost assured as no starts…Droughns owners would be wise to milk a few good games from him and then possibly trade him if they think they are going to be playoff contenders.
Warrick Dunn: @Car, TB, @NO, AZ, Bye…rough 1st 2 weeks for owners. @Balt, @Wash, @TB, Dallas, Carolina…he could be really worthless towards the end of the season when you look at those teams I just put up. I understand Atlanta has a good OL and can run the ball but I am going to be looking to move Dunn either before the season since he is worth a lot right now without Duckett there, or shortly after the NO and AZ games where he should look good.
DeShaun Foster: ATL, @MN, @TB, NO, CLE…should do very well. The Panthers are not going to be a team you look at match ups all the time, they have a solid offense and a terrific defense which will create lots of opps for short fields for the offense.
Corey Dillon: BUFF, @NYJ, DEN, @Cinci, MIAMI…should start off well…Denver and Miami are at home…Dillon stays healthy he will pay dividends far better than where he was drafted.
Frank Gore: @AZ, ST. Louis, PHI, @KC, OAK…looks like he might get off the blocks quick as well. @St. Louis, @NO, GB, @Seattle, AZ to close out the season…Gore may really surprise some folks. Dark horse for top10.
Joseph Addai: Not sure he’s even the starter…who cares who the Colts play, you start ‘em no matter what.
Tatum Bell/Mike Bell: @St. Louis, KC, @NE, Bye, BAL…again with Denver you just start whoever Shanny says is their starter…the match ups are not as big a concern.
T.Jones/C.Benson: @GB, DET, @MN, SEA, BUFF, @AZ…pretty decent set up for a conservative offense. TJ if healthy will look good early for the Bears.
Fred Taylor: DAL, PITT, @Indy, @Wash, NYJ…Dallas and Pittsburgh to open the season…YUCK! Gonna be a rough go early for Taylor.
Chris Brown/LenDale White/Travis Henry: NYJ, @SD, @Miami, Dallas, @Indy…don’t know who will get the bulk of the work and it’s not an easy schedule.
Ahaman Green: CHI, NO, @Det, @Philly, St. Louis…after Chicago he has some pretty nice waters he sails into after that. If he has recovered from his injury he has a good chance to produce…FF owners that passed on him might groan thru the 1st 5 weeks. NYJ, @SF, DET, MN to carry through the playoffs…no reason the schedule will not allow him to bounce back…it’s a matter of if he has recovered.
Kevan Barlow: @TN, NE, @Buff, INDY, @Jax…mix of sorts here. The key will be Ferguson and Mangold on the OL…if they can gel quickly the Jets might be able to run the ball with some effectiveness. It is Barlow though so don’t hold your breath too much.
So some are going to ask what is the point? I feel you want to come out strong, and when you get stuck with players that are not producing, and you can't trade them...by the time they get on track it could be too late...buying low and selling high s an absolute key to many a good season. being able to possibly spot early trends can keep you ahead of the pack.
OK, discuss.
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