Rb's drafted late and future production (1 Viewer)

[Pastor]

I am trying to think through what James Davis's long term outlook looks like for Dynasty league purposes. What do you think about him in particular and then on other Rb's drafted after the 4th round. There seem to be very few breakout Rb's drafted that late. WHy do you think this is and who has the potential to break that trend? Thanks

 

[Banger]

look at the bottom of the page...there's a bunch of threads on him if you use the search...

 

[Pastor]

Even beyond him, what about late drafted Rb's?

 

[Banger]

Even beyond him, what about late drafted Rb's?

I like B. Scott quite a bit. Super talented but troubled past led him to draft down in the draft. He went from the bubble to Benson's backup during camp. Along the way Carson said he dropped the most jaws at camp and he was one of the most impressive in camp. He's got great vision, good breakaway ability, good hands. He's raw but he's the #2 behind one of the worst starting RB's in the league and is beneath almost everyones radar.
Against the Rams in week 3 he had a tremendous run on 3rd and 21 from their goal line where he used his speed to get around a guy and then hurdled another the get the 1st down. On hard knocks they showed the play and Carson after the play pulled him aside and told him that was a great play and during the game that would be a game changer and to keep it up.

3rd and 21 run from the 4 fast forward to 3:05 of the clip....

The kid has tremendous talent, the #2 role but he just needs some opportunity and to keep his head on straight.

 

[Cleat Spike]

Was just thinking about this with Ced Peerman. Sounds like he's fighting for a roster spot now. It's sounds like he may not be rosterable in a dynasty league almost, unless they are looking to practice squad him.

I would say the usuals like Bernard Scott, Jennings, have chances to stand out, maybe Sutton?

 

[Biabreakable]

I did a study on this a few years back.

This would not be up to date. But for the time studied IIRC a 6th round pick only had a success rate of something like 3-5% to be a top 24 RB. And then usualy only for one or 2 years before falling out of the top 24 again.

This 3% was reflecting players like Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson. The success rate gets much better the higher round the RB is drafted.

 

[Pastor]

Thanks Biabreakable, thats what I was looking for. It seems to me that the sucess rate is so low, that when a back like Davis gets this much hype, you should trade him in a dynasty league. His value is through the roof. I could only come up with 4-5 Rb's that were drafted late or not at all that were worth anything. Seems like the shark move is trade him in a dynasty league.

 

[lyon812]

. I could only come up with 4-5 Rb's that were drafted late or not at all that were worth anything.

Alternately, he could have been drafted so low because he had a bad senior year and Senior Bowl. Going into 2008, he received All-American hype, and the wheels fell off. That's not to dispute Biabreakable's thread, which I remember well. I'm just pointing out that sometimes there are circumstances that cause a person's stock to drop further than it should.

Just a peek at http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft...p;type=position shows the following RBs drafted fourth round or later, since 2001, that have contributed meaningfully in some way. I know that's arbitrary, but I think you'll agree with the list.

4th Rounders:

R Johnson

T Choice

M Bush

L McClain

L Washington

M Barber

B Jacobs

D Sproles

M Moore

D Davis

N Davenport

C Buckhalter (meh)

5th Rounders:

J Harrison

M Turner

T Hightower (heh)

6th Rounders:

C Taylor

7th Rounders:

A Bradshaw

P Hillis

J Forsett

D Ward

There are some solid fantasy contributors there, and a couple of studs. I'd say that's more than 4-5 RBs. You did say late rounds, but it's arguable that Davis was a higher round talent--3rd or 4th--before his plummet in 2008.

 

[Pastor]

Thanks for the list. But that list really shows my point. Round 5 and later produced 1 FF top 20 rb really. (Taylor maybe if not for Peterson) But it seems in dynasty leagues these Rb's do good in pre-season and then come back to earth and you can get a lot for them. Does Davis seem to have a long term future and what makes a later pick move into a position to be a top 20 Rb?

 

[prefontaine]

Thanks for the list. But that list really shows my point. Round 5 and later produced 1 FF top 20 rb really. (Taylor maybe if not for Peterson) But it seems in dynasty leagues these Rb's do good in pre-season and then come back to earth and you can get a lot for them. Does Davis seem to have a long term future and what makes a later pick move into a position to be a top 20 Rb?

While this is true and I don't necessarily mean to pump up Davis, I think the statement that elite players rarely come from low round draft picks is also true. But at every position, players come out of nowhere to produce. Davis and others like him shouldn't be compared to a random 6th pick but to a 6th round pick that made headlines in camp. There are probably 5 or less of these every year. I think guys like Marques Colston who got rave reviews his rookie camp is a better comparison. The problem there is we all have a results bias to more readily remember the guys who got rave reviews in camp and then produced and forget many of the guys that simply disappear. So what percentage of these players end up producing? What percentage of the guys on the above lists were getting pumped up their rookie year? How many disappeared? This would give you a much better idea. So my belief is that Davis, and others like him, have a significantly better chance of producing than the average 6th (or 5th or 7th) but that still hardly makes him a sure thing.

 

[coolnerd]

 

[lyon812]

Thanks for the list. But that list really shows my point. Round 5 and later produced 1 FF top 20 rb really. (Taylor maybe if not for Peterson) But it seems in dynasty leagues these Rb's do good in pre-season and then come back to earth and you can get a lot for them. Does Davis seem to have a long term future and what makes a later pick move into a position to be a top 20 Rb?

I tend to think that a lot of times, draft position is arbitrary. Sure, there's a correlation on the macro level, but on an individual basis there are numerous players each year who are drafted much higher or much lower than their talent level indicates. Thus, it really depends on personal analysis. I was down on Davis after his poor 2008, but I didn't see him when he was highly touted--and haven't followed him much in preseason aside from reading numerous positive reports. However, he was highly touted before 2008, then fell off. It reminds me somewhat of Steve Slaton, who was everyone's darling after his sophomore season and then had a bad year--and it cost him, in my opinion, 2 rounds of draft status. Thus, while I know it doesn't give you an answer, my point is that if Davis has fourth round talent, regardless of draft position, then there's a very high chance that he'll be productive. What I want to convey to you is not to just assume that late round picks always suck, or to look solely at the round they were drafted.

 

[David Yudkin]

Priest Holmes wasn't exactly chopped liver and he wasn't even drafted.

Other Round 6 or later picks . . .

Terry Allen

Earnest Byner

Marion Butts

Gary Brown

Mike Anderson

Chester Taylor

Generally, late guys haven't done a ton.