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RB's Falling out of the top 10 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
- Start date
Noah Davis
Footballguy
Injury is very difficult to predict. I used the Data Dominator on the football guys site to get the top RBs from 2013 based on rushing & receiving stats. Here is my swag at your question
NAME POS YR RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD RECTD FANT PT
1 Jamaal Charles rb 2013 259 1288 4.9730 12 70 693 7 312.1000
2 LeSean McCoy rb 2013 314 1605 5.1115 9 52 540 2 280.5000
3 Matt Forte rb 2013 285 1340 4.7018 9 75 592 3 265.2000
4 Marshawn Lynch rb 2013 298 1250 4.1946 12 36 316 2 240.6000
5 Knowshon Moreno rb 2013 242 1039 4.2934 10 60 548 3 236.7000
6 Adrian Peterson rb 2013 278 1267 4.5576 10 29 171 1 209.8000
7 Eddie Lacy rb 2013 284 1178 4.1479 11 35 257 0 209.5000
8 DeMarco Murray rb 2013 217 1124 5.1797 9 53 348 1 207.2000
9 Chris Johnson rb 2013 279 1077 3.8602 6 42 345 4 202.2000
10 Reggie Bush rb 2013 223 1006 4.5112 4 54 506 3 193.200
- Knowshon Moreno - was a product of the DEN offense - knee scope, out of shape, in Miami will not be seeing 5/6 in the box again.
- DeMarco Murray - if someone were to get knocked out of the top 10 due to injury I'd put money on Murray
- Reggie Bush - I think there will be a more even split with Joique bell, also if I were putting money on injury knocking them out I'd split it between Murray and Bush
- Chris Johnson - I was shocked to see him in the top 10 to begin with. Jets have a great O-Line but goal line carries will go to Chris Ivor
NAME POS YR RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD RECTD FANT PT
1 Jamaal Charles rb 2013 259 1288 4.9730 12 70 693 7 312.1000
2 LeSean McCoy rb 2013 314 1605 5.1115 9 52 540 2 280.5000
3 Matt Forte rb 2013 285 1340 4.7018 9 75 592 3 265.2000
4 Marshawn Lynch rb 2013 298 1250 4.1946 12 36 316 2 240.6000
5 Knowshon Moreno rb 2013 242 1039 4.2934 10 60 548 3 236.7000
6 Adrian Peterson rb 2013 278 1267 4.5576 10 29 171 1 209.8000
7 Eddie Lacy rb 2013 284 1178 4.1479 11 35 257 0 209.5000
8 DeMarco Murray rb 2013 217 1124 5.1797 9 53 348 1 207.2000
9 Chris Johnson rb 2013 279 1077 3.8602 6 42 345 4 202.2000
10 Reggie Bush rb 2013 223 1006 4.5112 4 54 506 3 193.200
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In my ppr league the top 10 were Charles, McCoy, Forte, Moreno, Lynch, Murray, Peterson, Lacy, Bush, CJ?K.
If I have to chose 4 guys it would be Moreno, CJ?K, Bush, Murray. Although falling out of the top 10 to say RB15 is not a big deal these days. The difference in points last year between the two was 25 points, or less than 2 points per game.
The tougher question is who slips into the top 10? For PPR I'll go with Martin, Spiller, Richardson, Ellington.
If I have to chose 4 guys it would be Moreno, CJ?K, Bush, Murray. Although falling out of the top 10 to say RB15 is not a big deal these days. The difference in points last year between the two was 25 points, or less than 2 points per game.
The tougher question is who slips into the top 10? For PPR I'll go with Martin, Spiller, Richardson, Ellington.
False Start
Footballguy
People are still buying on Spiller, reminds me of everyone always buying on Stewart. Trent is just not good, want my proof, look at his tape.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
This is basically trying to predict which player with a starter's share of touches will stay healthy for 13+ games.
Chaka
Footballguy
They were just guesses really. It was kind of tongue in cheek as Grahamburn pointed out, which is why I said it was a tough question. RB has become so devalued that 25 guys now have a shot to crack the bottom of the top 10.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How can anyone predict who is going to get injured.That's the thing with that statistic, in many cases its due to injury which just isn't predictable. Just rank your top 10 and let the chips fall as they may.
Based on who I can see dropping in production:
Alfred Morris - A Shanny product that loses Shanny, could be a bad thing. If Gruden brings more os a passing attack to Washington, that wouldn't be good for Morris' production.
Knowshon Moreno - pretty easy to see this one.
Frank Gore - age and more competition for carries
Marshawn Lynch - the guy has abused his body with his violent ruinning style and could slow down at age 28 as a result.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Im going to say jamaal charles drops substantially. Significant losses on the offensive line, and moving from one of the weakest schedules to one of the toughest. I dont know if he falls out of the top ten, but i wouldnt be surprised at all to see him fall out of the top 5 or further.
Forte, lynch and peterson are all guys who could drop off due to age. lynch has had so many carries the last couple years, I can see him hitting the wall. But its hard to pick against him because he's been so consistent. Forte is in a great position because trestman is a ppr hero for running backs, and he has no injury history to speak of the last few years. and its hard to pick against peterson because he's a hall of famer who could easily contribute past 30.
Ball replaces moreno, and I think he stays in the top ten easily.
Fred jackson takes a hit because he's old, but also because bryce is back and spiller, at least for the time being, is healthy.
Its funny that people see chris johnson in the top ten once again, and instead of being interested in a guy who was an absolute beast the second half of the season, they just stick with what they originally thought and predict him to drop out of the top ten. He just went to a team that has tried for years to get a running game going and is immediately their best offensive player and a centerpiece of the offense, but people just assume he will suck. I think the surprise might be that he stays in the top ten.
And that leaves lacy, mccoy and murray. I know its trendy to predict injury for lacy and murray, but that's what it would take. And I don't see any reason to predict an injury for one over the other, even though the odds are good that one of the three will get dinged up.
if I had to pick some guys to move up into the top ten, that lkst is a bit trickier. Fosters a reasonable bet. Doug martin and trent richardson could sneak back up there. Maybe a young guy like ellington, gio or sankey? Its easy to say in the offseason, but before injuries, there's not that many guys knocking on the door here, imo. So maybe the list doesn't change that much. I don't know.
Forte, lynch and peterson are all guys who could drop off due to age. lynch has had so many carries the last couple years, I can see him hitting the wall. But its hard to pick against him because he's been so consistent. Forte is in a great position because trestman is a ppr hero for running backs, and he has no injury history to speak of the last few years. and its hard to pick against peterson because he's a hall of famer who could easily contribute past 30.
Ball replaces moreno, and I think he stays in the top ten easily.
Fred jackson takes a hit because he's old, but also because bryce is back and spiller, at least for the time being, is healthy.
Its funny that people see chris johnson in the top ten once again, and instead of being interested in a guy who was an absolute beast the second half of the season, they just stick with what they originally thought and predict him to drop out of the top ten. He just went to a team that has tried for years to get a running game going and is immediately their best offensive player and a centerpiece of the offense, but people just assume he will suck. I think the surprise might be that he stays in the top ten.
And that leaves lacy, mccoy and murray. I know its trendy to predict injury for lacy and murray, but that's what it would take. And I don't see any reason to predict an injury for one over the other, even though the odds are good that one of the three will get dinged up.
if I had to pick some guys to move up into the top ten, that lkst is a bit trickier. Fosters a reasonable bet. Doug martin and trent richardson could sneak back up there. Maybe a young guy like ellington, gio or sankey? Its easy to say in the offseason, but before injuries, there's not that many guys knocking on the door here, imo. So maybe the list doesn't change that much. I don't know.
Noah Davis
Footballguy
I did this analysis previously and while I found it funny, and do expect him to drop to top 15 I still drafted him this year....because he seems to always surprise me by ending up in the top 10. I do prefer him in best ball leagues though as he can lay some duds to go along with monster weeks.bostonfred said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
johnson had some bad games in tennessee, especially against tough defenses where he'd have a couple bad runs, then they'd go away from the run completely, and by the end of the game he had six carries for one yard and you're like, damn, this guy sucks. and after starting out ice cold the first couple games last year and the year before, that was people's lasting impression of him. by the time he heated up, they'd already put him in the "not remotely interested" casket and didn't even look at what he did down the stretch.
the jets have a better defense and an easier schedule, and i think they'll commit to the run way more. so i expect those turd games to be a lot better. he might still get 20 carries for 42 yards or something, but if you replace his horrid games with regular bad games, and keep his good games intact, he becomes a true stud fantasy back. and i love that marty played the "he's a hall of famer" card before cj2k stepped foot on the field. he's basically putting it all on johnson to get his resume together over the next couple years, and i think it's going to work.
the jets have a better defense and an easier schedule, and i think they'll commit to the run way more. so i expect those turd games to be a lot better. he might still get 20 carries for 42 yards or something, but if you replace his horrid games with regular bad games, and keep his good games intact, he becomes a true stud fantasy back. and i love that marty played the "he's a hall of famer" card before cj2k stepped foot on the field. he's basically putting it all on johnson to get his resume together over the next couple years, and i think it's going to work.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
A lot of people underrating Demarco Murray in this thread.
It's not underrating his skills, it's his ability to make it through a full season. If you want to just look at ppg, then he will be top 10. I was going for end of season totals.
ETA: Not to mention we were asked to guess 4 out of 10 players who could potentially see a dip in production. When you include 40% of the pool, there is going to be a tough cut in there. I'm not really down on any of the players I mentioned except for Moreno and maybe Johnson, depending on how the Jets use him.
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Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Agreed. Murray just seems to be hitting his stride. I think he could miss a game or maybe even two and still hit Top 10.
Pots
Footballguy
This is a silly stat. You need to accomodate outside factors like: Injuries and drastic change of circumstances (like new team, losing key players). No one expects Knowshon and Fred Jackson to be top 10 for obvious reasons.hotboyz said:
A better stat would be how many top 10 RBs fall out of the top 10 without big outside factors.
Pots
Footballguy
People are viewing Murray as another promising Dallas RB with 1 good year that should fall off the face of the earth like Julius Jones and Marion Barber. People think it's the same song and dance since it's the same team, even though it's a different player.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Based solely on total fantasy points and year end rankings, there is no magic, secret formulas, or expert analysis involved in coming up with the Top 10 running backs.
In the past 5 seasons, 70% of the guys that ranked in the Top 10 in fantasy points were Top 10 in running back touches. 90% were ranked in the Top 15 in touches on the season. The only guys that did not have Top 15 touches on the seasons were ranked 16, 17, 19, 19, and 31 in touches. The total true outlier was one season with Sproles who had a ton of receiving yards and total TD on not a lot of touches.
Bottom line, whoever gets the ball the most is going to have the inside track on ranking in the Top 10. Talent, situation, offensive system, etc. really are not that big a factor.
So a lot of this boils down to health. How many guys will be able to play 14-16 games over the season and can endure 20 touches a game. Anyone can get hurt, so it mostly is a lot of guess work.
In the past 5 seasons, 70% of the guys that ranked in the Top 10 in fantasy points were Top 10 in running back touches. 90% were ranked in the Top 15 in touches on the season. The only guys that did not have Top 15 touches on the seasons were ranked 16, 17, 19, 19, and 31 in touches. The total true outlier was one season with Sproles who had a ton of receiving yards and total TD on not a lot of touches.
Bottom line, whoever gets the ball the most is going to have the inside track on ranking in the Top 10. Talent, situation, offensive system, etc. really are not that big a factor.
So a lot of this boils down to health. How many guys will be able to play 14-16 games over the season and can endure 20 touches a game. Anyone can get hurt, so it mostly is a lot of guess work.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Um, kind of like how Murray missed two games last year (and presumably part of the week 6 game where he was injured), and still finished as RB 6/7ish?
Yeah, like that. Plus the Cowboys have stocked up and may have one of the best/deepest O-lines in the league. The only thing that could be a major detriment to him is the sorry state of the Cowboys D, which could let games get away and result in Murray seeing fewer touches. But, it should drive the offense to keep up and result in more receptions and potentially more goal-line looks.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I don't quite follow the logic. Julius Jones = Marion Barber, therefore = DeMarco Murray?
Nevermind the fact that over his first 5 years in Dallas Barber averaged ~1040 yards from scrimmage per year and totaled 49 touchdowns... and Julius Jones averaged 1100+ yards from scrimmage and totaled 17 TDs in his first 3 years.
I don't get the comparison, and even in the comp, I don't quite see how it's a cautionary tale about Murray.
Travis Henry =/= Montee Ball, just because they wear/wore the same uniform.
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree. As mentioned, predicting injury is next to impossible - could happen to anyone.
If we take injuries out of account, there aren't too many RBs that will get as high a proportion of his team's carries than Murray will. That alone is highly valuable in today's RB landscape.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
History also shows trying to predict who falls out is a fools endeavor.hotboyz said:
pantherclub
Footballguy
that in a nutshell is why one should draft a combination of wr-qb-wr in the first 3 or so roundsjmo87usc said:
pantherclub
Footballguy
but they do, so why even play those odds when they are dramatically smaller with wr, qbs? Its better to be safe imo
pantherclub
Footballguy
but in fantasy they are one in the same. It doesnt matter if those running backs are poor performers or if they get hurt. Either way they dont get you points. But the stat remains that the turnover is above the 60% mark
cloppbeast
Footballguy
That's why I try to draft WRs, QBs, or TEs early.
If I draft a RB in the early rounds, I make sure he has a worthy handcuff, making certain to draft him as well. You have to get flood insurance if you live next to a river.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Moreno, Fred Jackson and CJ are the obvious choices. Moreno is hurt and not playing with Peyton anymore, Fred Jackson is older and now has another younger back to fight for touches with, and Chris Johnson is not guaranteed to get a full load of carries in NY.
Lynch should still be really good, but he could easily drop into the 11-15 range if the other RBs start getting more carries, as rumored, and his touchdowns fall off a bit.
Lynch should still be really good, but he could easily drop into the 11-15 range if the other RBs start getting more carries, as rumored, and his touchdowns fall off a bit.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
This topic comes up every year, and I will again suggest that PPG is a better barometer for fantasy RB evaluation than year end ranking. (I generally say that for any position, but I digress.)
A RB that averages 14 ppg and plays in 10 games is worth more than a RB that averages 10 ppg but plays in 16 games. The second guy will score more points over the course of a season, but in the huge majority of leagues, you can play another RB in place of an injured one.
That makes the comparison:
RB 14 ppg x 10 games = 140 points + replacement RB 8 ppg x 6 games = 48 points = a total of 188 fantasy points on the season
- OR -
RB 10 ppg x 16 games = 160 points on the season
Yet somehow people will argue that the first guy (14 ppg) was not worth as much because the second RB (10 ppg) outscored him in total points.
A RB that averages 14 ppg and plays in 10 games is worth more than a RB that averages 10 ppg but plays in 16 games. The second guy will score more points over the course of a season, but in the huge majority of leagues, you can play another RB in place of an injured one.
That makes the comparison:
RB 14 ppg x 10 games = 140 points + replacement RB 8 ppg x 6 games = 48 points = a total of 188 fantasy points on the season
- OR -
RB 10 ppg x 16 games = 160 points on the season
Yet somehow people will argue that the first guy (14 ppg) was not worth as much because the second RB (10 ppg) outscored him in total points.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
For ppr formats the trends over the past 5 years has been between 40% and 50% repeat for a top 10 performer the next season. So if you a person that abides by the trends then you should, at minimum, discount 5 players in last year's top 10. This does not mean you completely drop 5 or 6 players off your rankings, only that you rank them lower based on situation and history.
I am seeing Charles, McCoy, AP and Forte as the first four backs off the board. Trends say that 3 of the 4 will not finish near that ADP, and there is no precedent of the same players finishing in the top four the next year.
I am seeing Charles, McCoy, AP and Forte as the first four backs off the board. Trends say that 3 of the 4 will not finish near that ADP, and there is no precedent of the same players finishing in the top four the next year.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I don't think Forte will live up to his price this year. I had him on multiple teams last year, and he was a great value, but he is the consensus 4th RB off the board this year, and I just don't see him doing any better than he did last year, and he basically has to repeat his career year to be worth a top 5 pick this year. Granted, I think he will still be a top 10 RB, so I don't think he will be a bust, but I just don't trust him to get 1,900+ combined yards and 12 scores again.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If you substitute the name FORTE with ANY RB THAT HAD 360 TOUCHES THE SEASON BEFORE, then you are being very accurate in your assessment. The likelihood that a player gets 360 touches in a season is pretty remote. But the chances of him doing it in consecutive seasons is even more remote.
The odds are that Forte will get nicked up and lose some touches this year, but that has more to do with the law of averages on injuries than him being less productive when he gets the ball. I also would suggest that getting Top 10 production out of a Top 5 pick is still a decent return. Guys that play and don't perform close to their investment cost are the albatrosses in fantasy football, even worse than first round picks that get hurt. At least guys that don't play can be replaced in your lineup. The worst is investing a lot in a player that plays all the time and never does anything. You won't want to bench him, because it always seems as soon as you do he will go for 200/3 the week he is on your bench.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I agree with most of this. In no way am I suggesting that Forte would be a bad pick at the 5 spot this year, ala Spiller or Martin last year (both of whom were going around 5 last year). As someone who does mostly auctions, I just can't see myself spending around 50 on Forte this year (since the consensus 4th best RB off the board usually goes for high 40s-low 50s).
cloppbeast
Footballguy
If a tossed coin lands on heads the first time, does it have a higher chance of tails the second time?
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Pots
Footballguy
It DOES matter when you're trying to make some sort of correlation between Top 10 RBs and how many are going to drop out. The fact that they are a top 10 RB does not mean there is a 50% chance of them dropping out of the top 10, the fact that Knowshon left Denver to go to Miami likely will be. Or X running back got hurt (unpredictable). If you want to make a topic, or statement, saying that history tells us half of the top 10 RBs will not be in the top 10, then you should dig deeper and find actual predictable factors.
For example, what % drop out due to injury? What % drop out due to new scenary/major team changes (which is subjective so a reasonable barometer would be necessary)? And more interestingly, what % dropped out of the top 10 with a reasonable similar situation to the year previously, and how far did they drop? A RB dropping from 8 to 12 counts toward that '60%' but actually put up similar numbers.
Basically what I'm saying is, you can retitle this thread "Which RBs do you think will have a big drop off this year compared to last year?' and not need to try to interpret two things that have no correlation, which is being a top 10 RB one year and X% not ending up there the next year.
Pots
Footballguy
I love how this time of year there are so many teams that 'have the best O-Line in football'
And the Bears and Cowboys are definitely not my top choices in having them.
zamboni
Footballguy
Frankly, I never pay attention much to O-line rankings, or even trying to gauge how well they will do. Unless you're in the trenches, we have no idea how a line can gel or fail to gel.I love how this time of year there are so many teams that 'have the best O-Line in football'
Much like SOS, OL success often turns out much differently than expected.
Chaka
Footballguy
Top 10 in my league were:
Charles
McCoy
Lynch
Moreno
Forte
Peterson
Murray
Lacy
C.Johnson
Gore
I think Moreno is a consensus pick to drop out of the top 10, unfortunately everyone knows that so no one will jump on him too early for anyone to benefit from that in their draft.
I agree that you can't predict injury and that anyone can get injured at any time but some guys have a history of injury. If you accept that everyone is genetically different (a fact) and that some people genetically cannot withstand the beating of an NFL RB as well as others then I don't see how you cannot devalue Murray just a little bit. The guy has an injury history as long as my arm. Sure, he may be the next Fred Taylor or Frank Gore, who both overcame long injury histories but you have to at least consider his history when valuing.
Speaking of Gore I think he will have more competition for touches, whether that competition does enough to reduce his touches overall remains to be seen. Still I have to devalue him some based upon that fact. Plus his age may finally be a factor.
Based upon nothing more than my unconfirmed personal bias I am always a little wary of sophomore RBs after they had dominant rookie years. Perhaps because defensive coordinators have a full year to watch film or maybe they get a little cocky after so much early success. Even though I think Lacy is in line for a ton of touches I am a little wary of him.
I know that Charles, McCoy, Lynch, ADP & Forte will not finish the season as the top five backs but I have no idea how I would even begin to predict which one(s) will fall out and why. They are all very talented and, more importantly, the featured players in their offenses. They deserve to be drafted accordingly.
Charles
McCoy
Lynch
Moreno
Forte
Peterson
Murray
Lacy
C.Johnson
Gore
I think Moreno is a consensus pick to drop out of the top 10, unfortunately everyone knows that so no one will jump on him too early for anyone to benefit from that in their draft.
I agree that you can't predict injury and that anyone can get injured at any time but some guys have a history of injury. If you accept that everyone is genetically different (a fact) and that some people genetically cannot withstand the beating of an NFL RB as well as others then I don't see how you cannot devalue Murray just a little bit. The guy has an injury history as long as my arm. Sure, he may be the next Fred Taylor or Frank Gore, who both overcame long injury histories but you have to at least consider his history when valuing.
Speaking of Gore I think he will have more competition for touches, whether that competition does enough to reduce his touches overall remains to be seen. Still I have to devalue him some based upon that fact. Plus his age may finally be a factor.
Based upon nothing more than my unconfirmed personal bias I am always a little wary of sophomore RBs after they had dominant rookie years. Perhaps because defensive coordinators have a full year to watch film or maybe they get a little cocky after so much early success. Even though I think Lacy is in line for a ton of touches I am a little wary of him.
I know that Charles, McCoy, Lynch, ADP & Forte will not finish the season as the top five backs but I have no idea how I would even begin to predict which one(s) will fall out and why. They are all very talented and, more importantly, the featured players in their offenses. They deserve to be drafted accordingly.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Your example involves only two options and the outcome is essentially evenly distributed. Not so with guys getting 360 carries in a season.
A better analogy would be rolling 4 dice at the same time and having them all be ones on consecutive rolls. The probability is the same on each roll is the same, but the likelihood diminishes.
In your example, we know that if we flipped a coin a million times, each outcome would be represented very close to 500,000 times. If we flipped the coin and it ended up heads 1,000 times in a row, the probability remains the same (50/50 each flip to be heads or tails), but we still know that at some point tails will catch up.
In the carry situation, there have been 152 times when a RB had 360 or more touches since 1960. That works out to an average of about 2.8 running backs per year with 360 touches. In the same time span, there have been 2800 times a RB had 100 touches in a season. Basically, 5% of backs that got 100+ touches managed to get to 360. There were 23 RBs that have had back-to-back 360 touch seasons.
Can it happen? Sure. Does it happen? Sure. Would I expect it to happen? Probably not.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I don't intend to argue Forte has a good chance at 360 touches again, as the odds are against him. I just don't think the odds are any more against him than a running back who didn't get so many touches last year.
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dollar demons
Footballguy
Does the Cowboys schedule scare anybody as far as DeMarco goes.
SF
@STL
@Tenn
N.O
HOU
@SEA
NYG
WAS
AZ
@JAX
@NYG
PHI
@ CHI
@PHI
INDY
@WAS
SF
@STL
@Tenn
N.O
HOU
@SEA
NYG
WAS
AZ
@JAX
@NYG
PHI
@ CHI
@PHI
INDY
@WAS
George Jefferson Airplane
Footballguy
Any chance Bell or Mathews crack the top ten this year in non PPR?
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
so, just assuming this is actually a legit coin that's not predisposed to coming up heads, you think the coin really knows it just gave you 1000 heads and will try to even it out later with an extra 1000 tails?
think about what you're saying. --- this is the kind of thing that got random women burned at the stake.
you're telling me that if I flip a coin 999,000x that it will come up tails half the time, but if I get 1000 heads and then flip it 999,000x that 999,000 set will be predisposed to tails?
really?
this is 2014, dude.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Now the question becomes who is poised to jump into the top 10 (5).
Motee Ball has to be the consensus favorite and, like Moreno, he is being drafted accordingly. So if you want him you are going to have to pay.
Giovani Bernard is another hot commodity and deservedly so. BJGE never had much more than a lot of heart and a penchant for never fumbling but he is on the way out. I don't know enough about Jeremy Hill but I do know that he won't get the first crack at the starting gig or the primary backup gig. So the door is wide open for Bernard.
Toby Gerhart is on a woeful team but he looks like the only show in town. He certainly is in line for a heavy workload and that is what every fantasy owner hopes for.
I am not very optimistic for Doug Martin, he wasn't drafted by the current regime and they look like they want to pass the ball more in TB. I also think his rookie year production was heavily inflated by the game against Oakland when he went bonkers putting up 251 yards and 4 TDs (that represents 17% of his total rushing production and 33% of his TDs that season). However he does have some talent, is a 3 down player and there is not much else on the roster and TB looks like a team on the rise so Martin should definitely be on the radar here.
I think people are sleeping on Ray Rice he is being drafted in the mid 20s at the position and that seems crazy. He has been a legit, durable 3 down back with a solid nose for the end zone and he is only 27 years old. People talk about a changing of the guard with Bernard Pierce but he was even worse than Rice last year. Baltimore was just down all around on offense last year. Now they have brought in Gary Kubiak to coach the offense and that guy has a tremendous track record with RBs and he has never really been a committee coach. Wake up and smell the Rice people.
There are very few backs as dynamic as C.J. Spiller he is shifty, speedy and has excellent hands. Most of us see Fred Jackson as declining and if Bryce Brown is so talented then why did Philly give up on him in favor of a 31 year old Darren Sproles (I know Sproles is awesome but come on, Brown is 23 years old and people saying he was a dynamic play maker, that doesn't gel). I have durability concerns for Spiller and I don't particularly like his prospects around the goal line but he has the play making ability to score around 8 TDs from longer range, which will make up for a lack of goal line love.
Joe Thomas is arguably the best left tackle in the league and Alex Mack is one of the best centers in the game that alone makes Ben Tate an interesting prospect. It seems that Tate has never been able to stay healthy but he showed a lot of toughness last year playing through broken ribs. Considering that it looks like Tate will be the only legitimate offensive weapon on the Browns for most, if not all, of the season he appears to be in line for the kind of heavy workload that can lead to big time fantasy production.
Watching tape of Andre Ellington can be jaw dropping at times. It is almost impossible for a defender to get a solid bead on this kid. He also is a, perhaps, surprisingly North-South runner, he doesn't seem to spend a lot of time dancing at the LOS. Bruce Arians has said that Ellington is in line for a significant increase in touches, then again Arians is also a self admitted liar (True story), but Ellington looks far too dynamic with or without the ball in his hands to keep him on the sidelines too long. Couple his play making ability, an increased workload and the addition of Jared Veldheer and the return of last years #7 overall draft pick guard Jonathan Cooper and how can you not be excited about Ellington this year. His downside is similar to CJ Spiller's IMO in that I am not sure he will see much goal line work but he should get plenty of opportunities to hit multiple home runs.
Motee Ball has to be the consensus favorite and, like Moreno, he is being drafted accordingly. So if you want him you are going to have to pay.
Giovani Bernard is another hot commodity and deservedly so. BJGE never had much more than a lot of heart and a penchant for never fumbling but he is on the way out. I don't know enough about Jeremy Hill but I do know that he won't get the first crack at the starting gig or the primary backup gig. So the door is wide open for Bernard.
Toby Gerhart is on a woeful team but he looks like the only show in town. He certainly is in line for a heavy workload and that is what every fantasy owner hopes for.
I am not very optimistic for Doug Martin, he wasn't drafted by the current regime and they look like they want to pass the ball more in TB. I also think his rookie year production was heavily inflated by the game against Oakland when he went bonkers putting up 251 yards and 4 TDs (that represents 17% of his total rushing production and 33% of his TDs that season). However he does have some talent, is a 3 down player and there is not much else on the roster and TB looks like a team on the rise so Martin should definitely be on the radar here.
I think people are sleeping on Ray Rice he is being drafted in the mid 20s at the position and that seems crazy. He has been a legit, durable 3 down back with a solid nose for the end zone and he is only 27 years old. People talk about a changing of the guard with Bernard Pierce but he was even worse than Rice last year. Baltimore was just down all around on offense last year. Now they have brought in Gary Kubiak to coach the offense and that guy has a tremendous track record with RBs and he has never really been a committee coach. Wake up and smell the Rice people.
There are very few backs as dynamic as C.J. Spiller he is shifty, speedy and has excellent hands. Most of us see Fred Jackson as declining and if Bryce Brown is so talented then why did Philly give up on him in favor of a 31 year old Darren Sproles (I know Sproles is awesome but come on, Brown is 23 years old and people saying he was a dynamic play maker, that doesn't gel). I have durability concerns for Spiller and I don't particularly like his prospects around the goal line but he has the play making ability to score around 8 TDs from longer range, which will make up for a lack of goal line love.
Joe Thomas is arguably the best left tackle in the league and Alex Mack is one of the best centers in the game that alone makes Ben Tate an interesting prospect. It seems that Tate has never been able to stay healthy but he showed a lot of toughness last year playing through broken ribs. Considering that it looks like Tate will be the only legitimate offensive weapon on the Browns for most, if not all, of the season he appears to be in line for the kind of heavy workload that can lead to big time fantasy production.
Watching tape of Andre Ellington can be jaw dropping at times. It is almost impossible for a defender to get a solid bead on this kid. He also is a, perhaps, surprisingly North-South runner, he doesn't seem to spend a lot of time dancing at the LOS. Bruce Arians has said that Ellington is in line for a significant increase in touches, then again Arians is also a self admitted liar (True story), but Ellington looks far too dynamic with or without the ball in his hands to keep him on the sidelines too long. Couple his play making ability, an increased workload and the addition of Jared Veldheer and the return of last years #7 overall draft pick guard Jonathan Cooper and how can you not be excited about Ellington this year. His downside is similar to CJ Spiller's IMO in that I am not sure he will see much goal line work but he should get plenty of opportunities to hit multiple home runs.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Here's to missing the point!
Anarchy99 is right. We could flip heads 1000 times; even still, if we flipped it 10 million more times, it will even out. Like he said, it will eventually even out.
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Chaka
Footballguy
The suspension is still not a guarantee. He is a first time offender and the situation has been resolved in the courts via a pre-trial intervention. If Rice keeps his nose clean for a year he will not be prosecuted. It seems likely that if he is suspended it will be a 4 gamer reduced to 2 on appeal. I think Rice can put up top 10 numbers in 14 games.
And the whole team was awful last year, including Bernard Pierce who was worse than Rice.
