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RBs, QBs, and WRs to Exploit/Avoid-Week 14 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Hello Shark Pool,

I felt like the past 2 weeks I was sidetracked with other events going on in my life and I wanted to really put together something this week for you all as the playoffs start for most of you. Hopefully a few of you have bye weeks but this is when the FF playoffs really heat up.

I don’t normally write about the QBs and WRs but I haven’t seen a WR thread in awhile so I thought it would be fun if we covered QB/WR and RBs this week. Can’t say I can really commit to this every week but I wanted to get the banter and conversation flowing early and often this week.

I want you to post what you are facing this week, and I actually want you to list your entire starting roster in “1 LEAGUE” not all of them, but post a roster you want to talk about. I think we can all say its safe to play Chris Johnson, Randy Moss, Drew Brees…the decisions are usually RB2/3/flex when you have players like Michael Turner who might be out, those pesky WR3 positions you must fill out. I really want to open it up to you guys this week and I hope you help each other out, I can’t answer every post and PM. Because I am opening the thread up a little more than usual this week, can you please not send me a slew of PMs, keep them in the thread, thanks.

You guys all rock, you’re going to buckle down and do great this week, just don’t over think it too much. I had a lot of fun putting this together and I hope you all enjoy reading thru it. Please be kind to each other, and lets get to the GAMES!!!

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+10) (36)

The Steelers are not playing very well right now. Don’t be confused in what I am saying…I am not suggesting they lose the game this week, in fact they will end their 4 game losing streak. However, Pitt has been very so so all season and have been playing down to inferior competition all year. Rare that they blow anyone out and that is going to make for a good recipe for their passing game and a little less than happy news for the running game.

Big Ben: He tore them up earlier in the season with over 400 yds thru the air and 2 TDs but I think the score was along the lines of 27-14. Even with Hines Ward gimpy, they have weapons at the receiver position and this game will be tighter than the spread but Big Ben should be able to carry this team on his big arm. For the Steelers to have any chance at the playoffs they must win this week, and I believe desperation football will help Big Ben some. I would expect 250 yds and 1-2 TDs in this game.

Santonio Holmes: Last 5 weeks he has 15, 15, 15, 19, and 28…can’t imagine benching him this week. They will be looking for Holmes to provide some much needed big plays.

Mike Wallace: He has had a few decent games this year as the WR3 and if Hines Ward cannot go I would expect an uptick in targets for Wallace. 500+ yds and 3 TDs in the WR3 role, might be an interesting sleeper this week.

Rashard Medenhall: Outside of ADP week 1, Ryan Grant, and Larry Johnson of all folks, not a lot of RBs have had 100+ yd games. I believe Mendy will do OK this week but I would not project more than about 80-90 yds on the ground and about a 75% chance of a rushing TD…the Steelers only have 8 rushing TDs total on the season.

Brady Quinn: 2 of the last 3 weeks he has posted great numbers for FF owners but I doubt a lot of people have been starting him. The Steelers are going to be without Polomalu again this week so the Browns will try and take advantage of that. I would hope you do not have to roll the dice with Quinn but should you attempt this you should know the Steelers are allowing 275/2TD per game over the past 3 weeks in a row with Gradkowski really driving the point home in Pittsburgh this past weekend. Cleveland is playing hard but they really are not that good so I think Quinn is possibly held in check with about 220/TD being his upside this week.

Mohamed Massaquoi: Very erratic, hard to rely on, but I see a lot of upside long term for dynasty owners. 27 targets the past 3 weeks, 2 TDs, and 1 100+ yd game over that span. He’s a rookie but if you made the playoffs you should have other options.

Jerome Harrison: Great game for owners this past week but Pittsburgh is good at shutting the run down. I expect Harrison to be very pedestrian.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 22…Cleveland 14

Denver at Indianapolis (-7) (44)

Denver won 6, lost 4, now they have won 2 in a row. They did manage to knock off the Giants at home 2 weeks ago so I believe they are a playoff team but no threat to do much in the post season. What the Broncos are doing is running the ball well, and playing mistake free football for the most part. When they do that they likely win the game. And the flipside is Indy is playing out of their minds right now, how can you pick against them? You can’t really.

Kyle Orton: He’s thrown 5 TDs in the past 6 weeks. The Colts are decent against the pass, especially when you factor in most teams are playing them form behind. Orton will probably post about 200/TD in this game but nothing too wild. Denver will attempt to run the ball a lot with their 2 RBs this week.

Brandon Marshall: With the exception of the stinker against SD a few weeks back, he has avg about 18-19 points a game over the past 5 weeks. He has quietly racked 800/7 for the season so far, well on his way to another 1,000 yd season. Even if Orton is so so expect double digits from Marshall again this week.

Brandon Marshall: No reason to sit him although the Colts are pretty solid against the pass and have a strong pass rush to balance some deficiencies in the secondary.

Knowshon Moreno: 18 and 20 the past 2 weeks. Avg 17 carries over the past 4 games. Yes Bucky will get some carries but Moreno is starting to come on a little bit. He still is looking for his 1st 100 yd rushing game on the season. The Colts have been giving up about 100 yds rushing a game the past 4 weeks but Denver will test that run defense and I think Moreno has another solid chance to post double digits agains this week. I would expect 80-100 total yds and another score this week.

Correll Buckhalter: Will see touches but likely won’t be close to the 100 yds he racked last week. Flex player at best but he has a lot of small games this year. I feel the hype is better than the end result with him.

Peyton Manning: Now look, I know he’s a man amongst boys but Denver is really good against the pass and I think Manning might have problems cracking the top10 this week.

If you want sunshine blown up your wazoo you know where to find those sites on the net. If you’re reading this than you likely are putting in more effort than 90% of your local beer draft leagues so let’s not pretend this is a juicy match up. I don’t need to be reminded of all the times the Colts have blown out Denver in Indy…those Denver teams and the HC who was there at the time are long gone so let’s not assume this is going to be the same ole story.

Denver has not allowed a QB to throw for 300 yet on them this season. 6 games they have allowed ZERO TDS, 4 other games only 1…Manning will have his hands full.

I got one more evil fact/stat to throw at you so you won’t sleep the rest of the week. Here are the top 10 pass defenses in the NFL…NYJ, DEN, Buff, Wash, Car, GB, NYG, SD, CHI, Philly…how many of those teams has Peyton Manning faced this year? NONE!!!

Reggie Wayne: Been quiet the past couple weeks. Despite being blanketed by Denver this week, he should scrape double digits together. I think Garcon and Collie plus Clark will likely have to shoulder the load though and try to help Manning. I wouldn’t bench Wayne but you may need to find some pop in other parts of your line up this week.

Joseph Addai: Guy hasn’t missed double digits since week 2. 12 TDs on the season, and the Colts will need some running from him this week if they expect to make it to 13-0.

Final Score: Denver 24…Indy 20

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-7) (43.5)

Ice Cream Social: The Bengals are really playing better and they have a great chance now to win the NFC North, props out to their fans for sticking by them all these years as they finally seem to have turned the corner.

Reality: Those sweeps of 2 teams that are not even in the playoffs right now is looking less and less impressive. I think the Bengals win the division and get bounced quickly. THEY CANNOT SCORE!!! Since week the bye week in week 8 they have scored 17, 18, 17, 16, and 23…they have no pop or explosion on offense and feel they can hand it to Benson 35+ times a game(3 times already this year) and they can just sit on teams until the clock expires. They are watching too many Ravens 2000 highlights because they flat out are not nearly as good as that team.

Carson Palmer: Hasn’t had a big game since Chicago in week 7 where he threw 5 TDs. 3 passing TDs in the last 5 games and zero 300 yd passing games all season. Look elsewhere if you can.

Chad Johnson: Started the year pretty strong but the last 4 weeks before Detroit were a graveyard for most owners and this guy is top15 for the season right now. The Vikings were exposed a bit last week but I believe the Vikings are going to want to make a statement…enter the Cinicinnati Bengals this week.

Cedric Benson: While Cinci is in the top6 for rushing per game, they are well below the avg in terms of ypc to almost anyone above or right behind them. I don’t even think they are a great running team, they simply just hand it of a lot. The Vikings have been lights out in rush defense the past 6 weeks basically. Their starting MLB is OUT for the season but they still have bookend DTs in the Williams boys so look for them to keep Benson in relative check.

Brett Favre: Was the old Brett Favre sighting yesterday a figment of our 2009 imagination or is this the beginning of his fall from grace this year? I feel he bounces back well this week but I also feel that the entire team has something to prove including ADP so I look for a much stronger effort at home this week. Cinci has kept the opposing QB under 200 yds passing 5 weeks in a row and they have only allowed 3 passing TDs on defense during that span. It should get snapped this weekend.

Sydney Rice: Will be a tougher match up for him this week but he has been on a tear for several weeks and double digits should be within reach again.

Percy Harvin: 19, 9, 18, 26, 22 the past 5 weeks have been pretty nice for owners. He might slip a bit this week but his speed and the carpet make him an enticing flex play each week.

Adrian Peterson: RBs have not done well against Cinci. I believe ADP is going to want to redeem himself this week. Cinci has held some really good backs to some low totals this year but I have a gut feeling this week that CInci plays a pretty blah game where they don’t really need a win. Peterson should post double digits but don’t look for a huge game here either.

Final Score: Minnesota 17…Cincinnati 7

NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3.5) (37)

Jets suddenly find themselves in the thick of the division race only 1 game back from the Pats. They still are getting very below avg QB play but they should match up fine against the Bucs. Tampa Bay is playing tough but they simply do not have the horses right now for Josh Freeman to create a whole lotta success.

Mark Sanchez: His last 4 weeks have been pretty terrible from a FF perspective. He’s a rookie so there is no way I am going to be too critical at this stage. He’s fun to watch, just not a big FF factor at this point. Plus the Bucs are almost top10 in pass defense believe it or not.



Jerricho Cotchery: Just has not been a great WR this year. Rookie QB has limited his chances somewhat.



Braylon Edwards: Again, what’s the upside here? I know some of you will likely play him but he really is no threat for a huge game. I don’t see more than maybe 1 passing TD in this game as the Jets who are suddenly in the division chase will want to play it close to the vest and run the ball.



Thomas Jones: I would expect him to get a lot of touches and grind out 100/TD this week. The Bucs are 31st against the rush allowing 160+ and a TD+ per week on the ground. Look for the Jets to just line it up and ram it down the Bucs throat as much as possible.

Shonne Greene: 21 carries the past 2 weeks combined. Don’t be surprised if they give it to him 10-12 times this week again. Not a lot of upside for owners but they can’t allow Jones to run it 30 times a game either.

Josh Freeman: So what that he threw 5 picks last week. He’s a rookie, it’s expected at some point. I like the way he keeps on fighting, think he’s gonna be a decent QB in this league, and yes he is the future for the Bucs, much like Sanchez. This game might not be pretty but it will fun to watch the rookies do battle with each other. The Jets pass defense is pretty good, one of the best, so look for Freeman to struggle this weekend.

Antonio Bryant: 18 and 16 the past 2 weeks. I’ve seen this guy floating around the WW in some leagues. I don’t see a big game here but I also believe he could make a very sneaky guy to come off your bench in the next couple weeks. The Jets pass defense is really tough so if you start Bryant you are going against the grain here.

Cadillac: 11, 4, 10, 12…Caddy should be part of a 2 back system, but he has limited upside. That said if he is healthy in this game I expect him to carry the ball a lot. 16-17 carries has been his ceiling. I would look for him to get at least 15 carries this week, rack up 60-80 yds, and I’ll even say about a 50/50 chance of scoring a TD. Low double digits.

Final Score: New York Jetliners 17…Tampa Bay Bucs 13

Buffalo at Kansas City (PK) (37.5)

Not every game can feature playoff teams. There are some things to be said about Buffalo though. They have 21 interceptions for the season vs allowing only 10 passing Touchdowns. Sure, they aren’t very good at all when it comes to stopping the run but teams feel compelled to run when they look at the pass defense which is really pretty good.

The Chiefs come into this game after getting thrashed this past week at home by Denver 44-13. I believe Jamaal Charles is going to be asked to run the ball a lot and I also think Charles is a potential top10 candidate and maybe more this week.



Ryan Fitzpatrick: Hopefully, you don’t need to start this guy but be aware KC allows about 250/2TD almost every game thru the air. You can run on them too but I expect Fitz and TO hook up at least once in this game.

Terrell Owens: 17, 11, 34, 20…then 6 last week against a great pass defense of the Jets which I already highlighted in the last game. Look for TO to be involved and have a good solid day. 100 and a TD are on the table here for the taking this week. I would have to see 3-4 other really superior match ups or better QB/WR combos on my team before I would bench TO this week.

Lee Evans: Sleeper type this week. Someone is going to have a big game at WR for the Bills.

Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch: This is a mess at this point. They shared about 23 points last week and the starter-Jackson, he only collected about 8-9 of those so owners last week were rightfully frustrated. I would try to avoid the pair of them as they really don’t offer huge upside and the Bills will likely find easier success thru the air.

Matt Cassell: NO WAY!!! This guy is so inconsistent you can’t possibly want to start him this week.

ALL KC WRs: I know Chambers popped up as an option over the past month or so but I don’t like the KC passing game this week for much more than about 150 yds that will be sprayed around to guys you have never heard of. Much better options abound than here.



Jamaal Charles: Double digits in the bag, only question to me is whether he ends up with 15, 25, 30+…this has the making for one of those types of games. I see Charles as a top10 candidate this week.

Final Score: Kansas City 21…Buffalo 20

Green Bay at Chicago (+3) (45)

The Packers really started to cement themselves as a playoff team this past Monday Night. I didn’t think they would be able to beat Baltimore but they did and in impressive fashion. Rodgers has total command of this offense and they can be a very dangerous team.

The Bears won last week but they didn’t dominate a bad St Louis team. That usually means the winning team isn’t all that good either.

Aaron Rodgers: Carson Palmer threw for 5 TDs, Warner threw 5 too, Favre had a lot of success as well. I see where Rodgers was avg the 1st week of the season but I think he can redeem himself this week as GB has a lot to play for right now. I’m sure the Bears will be fired up and do their best but Rodgers should at least post respectable numbers. Maybe not a top5 week but 250/2TDs in workmanlike fashion.

Donald Driver: Clearly the WR to own this season. Had a few turnovers against Baltimore but I doubt they seriously think twice throwing in his direction.



Greg Jennings: 4/83/TD, 3/42, 5/64/TD, 6/38/TD, 6/106/TD…Jennings has decent days against Chicago most o f the time. I would look for something along the lines of 5/60 and a good chance at a TD…maybe 15-20 points this week from him.

Ryan Grant: Only thrown up single digits twice this year. Had a tough time finding running room against the Ravens, big surprise. Look for him to bounce back this week and post double digits. 12-15 would be a decent range for him this week. If you need more upside or pop look elsewhere.



Jay Cutler: 7 of the last 8 weeks he has been a big hole for most owners on their rosters. I wouldn’t try and turn the tide this week as GB is pretty tough on defense, especially their pass defense. Look for Cutler to struggle again this week.

All Chicago WRs: Again, they are all over the map. Bennett some weeks, Hester the next, Knox at times…the thing is Green Bay has a tough pass defense. Roy Williams is the only WR they have allowed over 100 yds all season. Look elsewhere this week or have something really good in justifying the start.

Matt Forte: The Pack unfortunately are also pretty good at stopping the run. If the Packers were more consistent running the ball, they would be a dark horse SB contender but that’s for another post. Forte has been struggling of late, and the only way I see him doing well this week is if he can catch a few balls in some open space. I know owners are going to cry that they have to start him but on paper this is not a great match up for him. 3.4 ypc and GB allows 3.6 ypc…just not there right now.

Final Score: Green Bay 27…Chicago 17

New Orleans at Atlanta (+9.5) (51)

What a game last week with Washington. I saw plays I have never seen before. I could not stop watching the end of this game in the bar where I was at. They are never out of the game, they show a lot of heart, and they have great leadership, mark of a true champion.

I loved when the announcer said the return of Zorn was up in the air…SERIUOSLY???!!!???!!! You don’t have Sherm take over mid season on offense after he was raising gerbils or whatever he wass doing and expect to come back as the HC…the second the season ends Snyder will fire Zorn and give him his remaining money, then board him onto the quickest plane out of Washington. Whtehr that is fair or not, I don’t know but to say his coaching employment is up in the air is totally laughable.

Drew Brees: 3 really strong weeks in a row, great season for him too but look for NO to throw all over the 4th worst pass defense in the league. Brees had 300+ and 2 TDs in their 1st meeting this year. Even last year he was pretty good against Atlanta when they had a better defense than they do now. Brees has to be a top5 threat this week.

Marques Colston: On pace for about 1150/10 TDs this season. 7/97, 9/92/2TDs, 7/140, 6/85/TD…this is some of the damage he has caused the past 3-4 years against Atlanta. Look for him to be involved and do well this week.

Robert Meachem: Had the game of his life last week so don’t chase points. That said, he has come on stronger than boar’s breath the past 5 weeks not missing double digits any of the weeks and capping it with a 34 point performance in some of my leagues. I know he’s risky as he has limited targets some weeks but he is playing himself into the starter role. 16 targets the past 2 weeks. I don’t know that you can call him a sleeper at this point but you need to keep him on your radar.

Pierre Thomas: 13, 17, 16…sure it gets frustrating watching Mike Bell steal touches but Thomas is performing well for an RB2 which is what most of you who drafted him hoped he would be. New Orleans should win fairly easily this week. Look what Philly did to Atlanta last week and they are still without Matt Ryan and a very gimpy Michael Turner. Don’t hesitate in starting Pierre Thomas, he’s due for a 120 on the ground and perhaps a TD or two.

Mike Bell: What he didn’t do last week was expected as New Orleans was on the road outside and out of their element sort of speak. Look for Bell to be much more involved this week as I believe New Orleans will be ahead and looking to run the clock out in the 4th.

Chris Redman: I don’t see him having a great day but they might find some passing lanes in garbage time. Would 200/2TDs really surprise me here? No, not really.

Roddy White: 16 and 25 the past 2 weeks. On pace to also hit about 1100-1200 yds and 10 TDs so he is doing what he was drafted by most to do. Atlanta has to pass the ball in order to even try and win the game. Look for White to do some damage. 8/110/TD, 3/75/TD, 5/68/TD, 10/164, 4/108/TD…those are his last 5 games against the Saints.

All Atlanta RBs: Let’s revisit once the IR is released and we can see if Turner will play or not.

Final Score: New Orleans 35…Atlanta 20

Detroit at Baltimore (-13) (40)

The Ravens have really stumbled this season. Pittsburgh or Baltimore is almost a lock for a .500 season at this point. I’m pretty shocked how this season has turned out for Baltimore. Not sure where to place the blame.

Daunte Culpepper: If Stafford sits this week, I can only see CPep as an act of desperation for owners who hopefully have other options going into the playoffs. The Ravens are a shell of what they were at the moment but I’m sure they can line up and beat Detroit for Pete’s sake.

Calvin Johnson: Had a very nice game last week but he has had a very disappointing year. I see owners trying to chase last week’s production. Calvin is top5 maybe top3 in terms of pure talent but his situation this week might not pay off for owners. If you have someone like a Ryan Grant as your RB2 which we discussed earlier as a bland start meaning 10-15…and you need some swing for the fences points in order to win, then by all means start Calvin. We could go on and on all week about it but he always is a threat to pop off against almost anyone. What I’m saying is if you need a HR threat on your team this week then I like the possibilities here but understand it is far forma given that he explodes this week.

Kevin Smith: Most backs struggle with the Ravens run defense, would not expect a big game from Smith this week. Not a strong play even though he has been hitting double digits most weeks.

Joe Flacco: Terrible for owners the past several weeks. 4 of his 1st 6 weeks this year he posted pretty good numbers. But lately he hasn’t and the Ravens as a whole have been moving backwards. Even though this is a decent match up I would feel better with playing Mason than I would Flacco. Ravens are desperate for a win and I think Ray Rice holds all the keys for their victory this week.

Derrick Mason: Had posted 23 and 19 the previous two weeks before the GB debacle this week. His upside is about 15-22 when he is really involved in the game, but he has had a few stinkers this year too. I don’t want to tell you to start him blindly. I think he is a WR3 type at this point, ranks 21st on the season and that is in line with what he did last year and the year before that…20th, 22nd…he’s borderline WR2 but again check all your options before you insert him.

Ray Rice: Had his worst game of the season and still scraped 10 point together. I would not over analyze this situation. As long as Rice is healthy and there is no reason to think otherwise I would plan on just plugging him in. He brought you this far, no reason to turn back now.

Final Score: Baltimore 24…Detroit 14



Miami at Jacksonville (-2.5) (44)

Miami pulls the shocker last weekend falls behind 14-0, watches BB make another mistake and not take the points, suddenly they win the game 22-21. They have to be brimming with confidence right now. I believe this will be a pretty low scoring game but look for some big time hits I this game. If you like defense and big hits this game should be loaded with them. You have two fairly conservative coaches so I do not expect fireworks in the passing game.

Chad Henne: Do we get the anointing oils out yet? Jax gives up about 240/2TD a game on pass defense. Henne is not technically a rookie but this is his 1st year under center so he is close to rookie status. The Jags have not shut a QB out in terms of TDs since…looks like the Jags allow at least a TD every game. Henne and Miami are going to bring it as this game means everything for both teams. Jax wins and gets to 8-5, you gotta like their chances of making that last wildcard spot and possibly saving Jack Del Rio’s job…Miami is not really playing well, look I’m a huge Miami fan but they got mighty lucky against the Pats and are fortunate BB doesn’t like to kick FGs. Henne should put up 200/TD but I would not expect anything approaching top10 this week.

Devone Bess: Since week 9…11, 11, 12, 6, and 27 last week. As a WR3, possible felx, he seems to fit the mold there, but he only has 1 TD for the season. Henne is progressing though. 46 targets the past 5 weeks including 14 each time against NE, not sure if that skews things a bit here.

Ricky Williams: Quiet week last week. The Jags are pretty decent at stopping the run. I imagine they sell out and force Henne to try and beat them. I expect Ricky to see 20 touches, just don’t see him exploding. Miami is 4th in the league right now running the ball so I understand why owners are going to play him but his top5 projection when I looked last week was preposterous. If you get a good game from Ricky, great but he is not a top5 candidate week in and week out.

David Garrard: He’s at home, Miami can be thrown on as they start 2 rookie CBs although they are learning the game very quickly. I expect to see Garrard throwing the ball as they have talent at WR and will try and pick a few spots for some big plays. 200+ and 1-2 TDs would not be a total surprise here.

Mike Sims Walker: He’s had 2 bad weeks in a row. Owners have been riding this guy most of the year. It’s either a big game or nothing with this guy and he has been more big game until the past couple weeks. Moss and VJax have made it past the century mark against the Phins, but other WRs have had solid days despite not getting past the 100 mark.

MJD: Been pretty average the past 2-3 weeks, I would not expect him to explode on the Miami rush defense which is not great but certainly not bad either. DWill and Thomas Jones are the only 2 backs to go over 100 on the ground on the Phins. Gonna be a scrape for double digits, not great chance he hits 20 this week IMO.

Final Score: Miami 17…Jacksonville 14

Carolina at New England (-13) (44)

Matt Moore/Jake Delhomme: Either way I don’t see this as a viable option this week.

DWill: Even is he starts I think the Pats will get ahead and minimize his overall effectiveness. I think FBG is posting some similar thoughts early part of this week. Watch the IR, see if he is going to play but unfortunately for owners DWill is gone when they need him the most.

JStew: If DWill is out you can expect Stewart to get a lot of touches. Is it a great match up? Not really on the road in NE but I can understand if owners who have both try and run Stew out there.

Steve Smith: He has been quiet all year. He’s borderline top30 right now, I might look around and see what my options are because Steve Smith who is a great WR has had to endure some pathetic QB play.

Tom Brady: Was slightly injured in the Miami game. I can’t even imagine what this guy is thinking right now. I sure wouldn’t sit him because NE needs a win, they can’t run the ball effectively or consistently for that matter. I would expect them to push their chips in the middle with Brady’s arm, Moss’ speed, and Welker’s ability to catch a lot of balls.

I want to point out the 2nd INT in the Miami game was not talked about fairly. He was getting hit, and the ball was completely redirected when it left his hand. He wasn’t aiming at Crowder but rather to his right and he was spun just enough to where he zipped it down the middle of the field…at least that’s what I saw after I looked at it a few times.

The bigger point with NE and you just have to be honest, is what is BB thinking? I was elated that they didn’t kick a FG this past weekend, gave Miami the chance to turn the game back around. I was defending BB some in the past few weeks as I thought some of his decisions were well justified but he just pissed all over the Miami fanbase and showed the team zero respect which is terrible because we have beaten these guys in the past and I don’t believe he should take a playoff team form a year ago so lightly. But I am glad he did as it makes the last month a lot more interesting.

Randy Moss: Is not talking to Brady, seems to himself, not digging the old man beard he is sporting, and I cannot figure out how he catches a 60 yd bomb on the first drive and then they don’t dial up that play a few more times in that game. I would never sit him, not ever but I would like to see him get on track again down the stretch here. He went missing in 2007 down the stretch too, hope that is not a trend this year.

Wes Welker: PPR monster…since week 5 he has posted 22, 37, 27, 17, 18, 35, 10, 26…just plug and play. He’s a candidate for FF WR of the year when you factor in consistency. I would love to have this guy on my roster.

Laurence Maroney: Had his 6 game streak of double digits snapped last week. I expect NE to be ahead and I would expect to see Maroney cash in but understand that Maroney doesn’t really close games out. He seems to be involved early and then even when the pats have a lead they don’t put the ball in Maroney’s hands to run the clock out. 75 total yds and a score this week? Sounds pretty good.

Final Score: New England 28…Carolina 14

Seattle at Houston (-6) (44.5)

Both teams are 5-7, very little to play for although networks list them both as “in the hunt”…I feel for Kubiak and he could be gone or demoted if Shanahan were to take over. Not sure that would help the Texans who I believe if they make a change really need to go in a different direction. What could Gruden do with this team? I would like to see Kubiak finish out his contract but I understand fans are impatient at this point.

Matt Hasselbeck: The Texans are no pushovers thru the air. They have had Indy on the ropes twice this season. Hass and the birds don’t travel all that well to begin with. I know in start 2 leagues that Hass is going to be put out there. I probably like him enough to start in those type of leagues but outside of that I would not spend a lot of time trying to figure this out.

TJ Housh: Has not done anything since week 10 against Arizona, 3 weeks in a row of futility…unless you are a person that just loves to start guys on the idea that they are “due” I would pass both housh and probably Burleson too.

Nate Burleson: 16, 8, and 10 the past 3 weeks and an zero catch performance the week before that. He’s very iffy to be wheeling out there. I can agree that either he or Housh will likely hit low double digits this week but not both, and can you really tell who is going to get the targets? Very risky move IMO.

Julius Jones: Houston has been really tough against the run as of late. I don’t see this as a good match up, perhaps a few receptions would get him to double digits but certainly there is little “POP” in the line up with him as your RB2 or flex this week. It’s the playoffs for Pete’s sake, go down swinging baby, don’t lose 112-110 because you played it close with Julius this week.

Matt Schaub: I’m scratching my head here because the Texans now are 5-7, lost 4 in a row and Schaub separated his non throwing shoulder. They have a lot of money invested, they are not going to the playoffs, why risk further injury right now? Watch the IR but I would be hesitant to start him this week even if he is the starter.

Andre Johnson: Good but not great the past 4 weeks. Great numbers for Cotchery perhaps but not if your name is Andre Johnson. Did have 17 targets last week so maybe he will go on a tear down the stretch here. Automatic start in all formats.

Kevin Walter: Possible sleeper this week as Seattle has given up 22 TDs this year thru the air.

Steve Slaton: Watch the IR and lets re-examine this later in the week.

Chris Brown: Had 26 yds on 8 touches, did score a TD but remember I warned you last week that Brown as a starter is different than when he comes in well after Slaton has taken the field. If defenses don’t need to scheme for Slaton, makes shutting down Brown a lot easier.

Final Score: Houston 23…Seattle 19…”Gotta make those kicks”

St Louis at Tennessee (-13) (41.5)

Titans had some chances this past week but the Colts were just too good in the end. I see them still pretty motivated to try and finish the season .500 or better after a terrible start as they start looking to next year.

Kyle Boller: The Titans have been playing much better on defense including pass defense. Look elsewhere for points this week, if you have to start Boller I don’t think you are long for a playoff run anyways.

Donnie Avery: 22, 10, 14, then 7 last week. He had a minor injury but did return to action. I believe Avery warrants a little merit and at least a glance in larger leagues. WR3? Flex? Double Digits are within his grasp this week if he can get some targets. 32 targets or 8 per week the past 4 weeks…certainly a better option than some others this week.

Steven Jackson: I wonder if all the hype about Chris Johnson will make him want to throw it down this week and try to answer back for all the Johnson hype. The problem is Teneessee is pretty good against the run. Actually the Titans give 4.2 ypc which is higher by about a half yard over everyone in front of them so maybe SJax can have one of his biggest games of the year.

Vince Young: Finally lost a game as a starter this year. He’s not pretty but he produces. The Rams can’t stop the run and I expect Young to pick up some yds scrambling this week. I would look for about 175-200 passing, another 35-50 on the ground, 1-2 TDs in some form or fashion, and Young could be in the top half of QBs this week.



Kenny Britt: 14, 25, 13 the past 3 weeks, and 25 targets for an avg of over 8 a game. Young loves this guy and he should find some space this week against St Louis, a nice sleeper pick again this week.

Chris Johnson: Balls to the wall baby. 150+ yds and 2 TDs, that’s what you can expect this week. Unless something bizarre happens I imagine Johnson will have big week and make owners very happy. Guy has been a beast since about week 8…this stretch is something we enjoyed with LT in 2006, Priest before that…this is pretty special what he is doing right now.

Final Score: Tennessee 33…St Louis 17

Washington at Oakland (+1) (37)

Someone forgot to tell these two teams they were supposed to lose rather easily last week. I was on Oakland’s tip the week before but I was a week early.

Jason Campbell: JC the past 2 weeks has been pretty good. If you were a guy that had a roster with stud RBs, stud WRs, just have not been able to get it together at QB…I like JC over some of the other junk this week at QB for other teams. If you had Campbell, Fitz, and maybe Moore at QB, sure I like JC the best of that bunch.

Santana Moss: His upside the past 6-8 weeks has been terrible. He has had success in Oakland when he was a Jet. Could he pop off this week? Sure he could but it’s a longshot the way he has been playing lately. Even with Campbell doing well the past 2 weeks he has been pretty pedestrian.

Devin Thomas: 7/100/2TDs, his best ever as a pro in the NFL, only in his second season. The game was with NO so maybe he was simply overlooked by their defense. I don’t expect a repeat but he is starting to show signs for dynasty owners at the least.

Rock Cartwright: 21 against Dallas 3 weeks ago, 9 against Philly and 10 last week. He is an interesting sleeper this week. Oakland does not stop the run all that well but then again Washington doesn’t run it all that well. Sleeper play wih some very certain risk involved. Portis could come back this week but I believe Portis wants the season to end and I also believe he is going to beg to get out of Washington while he can still do some damage for another team even in a 2 back system.

Bruce Gradkowski: His 3 Tds in the 4th quarter of the Pitt game were more than Russell has thrown all year…look it up. He has been solid the past 3 weeks but he was held in check till late in Pitt…still who cares right? He has a nice set of weapons to throw the ball to. I probably would rate Gradkowski near the top of the scrap heap QBs right now. Skins are pretty good against the pass but Oakland players are fighting for jobs next season.

Louis Murphy: 10 and 27 two of the past 3 weeks. He’s a rookie and makes a tenth of what DHB is getting paid but he might prove to be the better WR when it’s all said and done. I like his attitude and he seems fearless to go and catch the ball. Wouldn’t want to bank on him but this another WR for dynasty owners that might pay off.

Chaz Schilens: Coming back form a broken foot, had a nice game last week but he likely cannot be trusted to put out as a starter on many teams right now.

Justin Fargas: Still kinda gets the most carries but that doesn’t mean success. Limited upside, decent run defense he will be facing. Sure the Skins are bottom 10 for rush yds but only 6 TDs on the ground for the season. Oakland doesn’t score much anyways, this is not the guy you want to be starting in the playoffs.



Darren McFadden: No way, disaster 2nd year for him and his owners this season. Likely one of the reasons you didn’t make the playoffs in certain leagues. Big hole on rosters.

Final Score: Washington 17…Oakland 14

San Diego at Dallas (-3) (48.5)

Phillip Rivers: You have to think he keeps throwing the ball this week. San Diego suddenly has Denver nipping at their heels. In fact both of these teams have to win this week in order to stay in the catbird seat for their divisions. I look for Rivers to get in a shootout of sorts here. I would not expect him to post much less than about 240-280 with 2+ TDs…he has to be on a short list of top10 candidates perhaps top5 if things go right for him on Sunday.

Vincent Jackson: Been very quiet the past 4 weeks. He is avg less than 5 targets a game yet the Chargers are winning a lot lately, not sure what to make of all this. Owners have been OK with his production since they cashed in earlier in the season but I am sure many owners are wanting himt o get back on track ASAP …like this week. Owners are gonna have to hold their “Emeralds” this week and take the plunge. The upside is worth it if he hits.

LaDainian Tomlinson: 21, 13, 17, 15…yet its his TDs that save the season for most owners. He has zero 100 yd rushing games and I don’t expect him to bust out this week either. TD? Sure so he becomes a decent play but honestly he looks terrible running the ball.

Darren Sproles: 13 and 18 the past 2 weeks. Not a consistent scorer but again if you need some pop and you are forced to gamble with some of your other match ups, maybe Sproles can do you some good.

Tony Romo: Continues to impress, continues to post solid numbers, continues to almost force owners to play him every week. The Chargers are pretty good against the pass. McNabb and Big Ben have had the most success on them this year. Romo had had little success in the month of December but despite the loss last week he threw the lights out with almost 400 yds passing. Dallas should have won that game but didn’t because of special teams. I look for Romo to continue his success thru the air. He has to because Dallas’ ground game has been so hit and miss the past 2 months. I likely would start Romo unless you have something like Warner, Rodgers, or someone really up there as your other QB.

Miles Austin: Only Avant and Ward have posted anything north of 100 on the Chargers this season. 27 and 26 his last 2 weeks, seems out of a little funk he had in weeks 10 and 11, always has huge upside. 73 targets over the past 8 weeks which is about 9 a week including 23 the past 2 weeks, no reason to rest this guy now.

Roy Williams: I don’t know what to say. He is all over the map over the past weeks including games of 12, 21, ZERO(4 targets), 9, and 24 last week. I think we might get some fireworks so as a WR3/WR4, possible flex, there are some reasons to start him but there are others that would invite me to sit him too. Really on the fence with him and interested in some of your thoughts.

Dallas RBs: I have been telling you guys for the past 6 weeks that this is a terrible FF owner situation. You can’t point to any of them and have anything to back up a start for any of them. It’s a mess, it’s been a mess, and it continues to be a mess. I wish Choice was the starter but I amin the mionority with that. Barber hasn’t looked right since he popped that thigh muscle against Carolina. He probably won’t be right until he can rest that thing for months in the off season. Felix is a joke and fool’s gold almost every week. Look elsewhere until we can get some real progress form this situation.

Final Score: San Diego 27…Dallas 24

Philadelphia at New York Giants (-1) (44.5)

Donovan McNabb: After watching Romo torch this club last week, I think McNabb should be an auto start for most owners this week. Big game, McNabb usually has good to some great games sprinkled in against the NYG over his career…unless you have a superior QB/match up I would plug and play McNabb this week.

DeSean Jackson: Gonna have to wait and see what his status is. If he doesn’t practice I would look elsewhere.

Jeremy Maclin: 19, 12, 11, 12…he has been a double digit guy for a lot of the season but has been pretty consistent the past 4 weeks which is rare for a rookie. 73 targets for the season including 30 the past 4 weeks or 7-8 a week. Worth considering if Jackson is a no go but even if DeJax is playing I like Maclin to have decent numbers.

Jason Avant: Only avg about 5 targets the past 3 weeks but I understand why owners want to try and play him if they are in a pickle for that WR3/4 spot. If DeJax is out you push him up some, but if not I think he could be the WR3 on this team for the week.



LeSean McCoy: Has been OK while Westbrook is OUT but I don’t see huge upside running the ball on New York.

Leonard Weaver: Don’t chase last week’s points, keep him on the bench unless you are in a real jam.

Eli Manning: In the past 2 months he has had 1 big game and a couple decent games but mostly he has been bottom half or worse. I would not gamble against the likes of Asanti Samauel who can completely change games for opposing QBs. You’re welcome to post any dilemmas you are facing with Eli and we’ll be happy to look at it but I don’t see it as a strong play.

Steve Smith: Has been quietly consistent for many weeks. He has not been close to what he was when they came out of the gate the first month but perhaps he can capture some that back down the stretch. He is likely to hit double digits in PPR leagues as he has been all season.

Hakeem Nicks: Has actually posted double digits albeit on the lower side for many weeks now. He looks like he will be starting alongside Smith next year. In fact Smith and Nicks are the likely pair for Eli for the rest of his career. I like Nicks in somewhat of a sleeper role but the DBs from Philly are tough so you likely would be better served in other plays this week.

Mario Manningham: Just too inconsistent right now and a fairly tough match up.

Brandon Jacobs: Hope owners got what they needed last week because I expect him to be fairly quiet this week and I look for Philly to take it right to NY. How effective will he be once the Gianta fall behind? Far from a top10 candidate this week…might not be a top20 type.

Ahmad Bradshaw: Has not posted double digits since week 6, hampered by injuries, a good cut candidate for WW gems like Jerome Harrison right now. I understand Harrison may not be available but he actually is in a lot of the beer draft leagues right now. Bradshaw is doing nothing for owners.

Final Score: Philly 28...NY 16

Arizona at San Fran (+3.5) (44.5)

Kurt Warner: He has a very soft pass defense this week and I expect him to light it up. Arizona really established themselves last week as a team you DO NOT want to see in the playoffs. They have the road warrior mentality and actually play very well on the road. Warner has seen it all at this point and nothing phases this guy. He might be getting old, he might be aching everywhere, but I love this guy. I love the fact he has 7 kids with his wife, I love the fact he used to bag groceries, I love the fact he is able to keep on top of the game and stay true to who he is…I LOVE KURT WARNER and while I would not have voted him into the HoF a few years ago, what he has done in both St Louis and Arizona, 2 teams with very mild histories to say the least, you gotta love the way he has taken losers and turned them into winners. Warner is a winner and a HoF candidate. I don’t own him in any leagues but I hope he lights up the Niners for 300/3TDs this week. I never get to write about the guy so forgive me if I embellished.

Larry Fitzgerald: Start him. I’m not going to write on an on about perhaps the best WR in the game with his talent. Does it always mean 30 point games? Of course not but he has a good chance to produce strong numbers this week, the kind that help you gloss over the WR3 hole on your roster.

Anquan Boldin: Start him twice if you can. Boldin is a baller and when healthy he can post better numbers than Fitz. He has 37 targets the past 4 weeks or about 9-10 a game. 350+ yds and 3 TDs over the past 4 weeks. Guy is fearless and wants the world to know who he is.

Tim Hightower: Wasn’t going to have a big game against the Vikes. San Fran has a good rush defense but Hightower makes his living with receptions. The trend thought he past month has been to limit his catches some and get the ball into the WRs hands. I can’t argue with that philosophy so Hightower is probably a candidate for 10-12 points max this week.

Beanie Weanie: Weeks 10 and 11 offered some hope, then the air went out of the balloon the past 2 weeks. SF has a good rush defense, no reason to risk playing him IMO.

Alex Smith: What the bleep??? 227/3TD, 232/2TD, 310/2TD…this guy is throwing it down right now. If San Fran moves him in the off season, teams are gonna line up to try and snare this guy. Hopefully the Niners keep him around while they groom another to back him up or push him along but Smith is starting to really come on here lately. I like the Cardinals but I can see a shootout here and some big plays for the SF WRs. I like Smith enough right now to start him, we have to deal in the present not what he did 3-4 years ago when he stunk up everything. I can see 200-250 with 2 TDs easily as the Niners try and keep pace with the Cards.

Michael Crabtree: 17, 9, and 12 the past 3 weeks. 26 targets, this guy merits starting in a lot of leagues. Has not eclipsed 100 yds and his avg per catch is some cause for concern for dynasty owners as I am seeing a possession type in the Keyshawn mold but I will let the board sort that thought out at a later date. You could do worse for a WR3 this week but he is far form automatic start each week.

Josh Morgan: 10 and 19 the past 2 weeks. 8 targets each of the past 2 weeks, expect him to be very active this week. I wouldn’t want to start him yet but he is someone to keep on your radar. Dynasty owners should remain hopeful. He also does not stretch the field like I would hope but he merits keeping on your radar.

Frank Gore: 15, 17, and 11 the past 3 weeks. He is gone form an auto start RB1 in the beginning of the season to now he is producing more as an RB2. No reason to expect him to explode this week…but 35, 26, 25, 11, 19…he owns some big games against the Arizona Cardinals. Look for him to continue a double digit number this week and he has a chance to post 20 this week.

Final Score: Arizona 34…San Fran 24

Good Luck to everyone, please post some thoughts and where you think I am dead wrong. This is not a complete WDIS format but if you are going to ask questions please give us some type of perspective as to your “types” of options so we can all chime in. Most of us have a lot of the same players and will be going thru similar situations this week.

 
Shonn Green against TB seems like it could be a decent play here for those desperate for a flex guy. Can any Jets homers give some insight on his upside this week?

 
Shonn Green against TB seems like it could be a decent play here for those desperate for a flex guy. Can any Jets homers give some insight on his upside this week?
Buff, what are the options because I think the fact NY can actually catch NE in theory makes Jones a 25 carry guy this week, maybe more. Green will see the field but I am not sure he is a great play. Bucs will keep this somewhat close.
 
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Shonn Green against TB seems like it could be a decent play here for those desperate for a flex guy. Can any Jets homers give some insight on his upside this week?
Buff, what are the options because I think the fact NY can actually catch NE in theory makes Jones a 25 carry guy this week, maybe more. Green will see the field but I am not sure he is a great play. Bucs will keep this somewhat close.
I figure he might be about in the Sproles/Norwood range this week (assuming Turner is out again). Dallas is tough against the run and Sproles has been hit or miss. The Jets have a chance of jumping out to a lead and running clock.
 
MOP, thanks for this- terrific analysis as always.

UGLY forecast (30mph winds and snow) for thursday's PIT-CLE game. does that impact your thoughts on the pass game and/or dependence on the run (on both sides of the ball). obviously mendenhall gets an upgrade, but for those of us more desperate at the flex, could the weather mean lots of touches and an upgrade for JHarrison (and check downs from Quinn who likely won't be comfortable throwing downfield given the weather conditions) against a Polamalu-less steelers squad? i'm considering rolling the dice and going with JHarrison over Turner who seems to be 50-50 to play best case, Beanie, Forsett and Bess. am i nuts?

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/nfl/...m=NFL_teamsched

 
Awesome stuff as always...

Didn't have time to read it all (yet), but how is Benson not a Red? He's been solid all year, but Cinci is sputtering and they play the Minnesota DL. I am benching him this week.

 
Shonn Green against TB seems like it could be a decent play here for those desperate for a flex guy. Can any Jets homers give some insight on his upside this week?
Buff, what are the options because I think the fact NY can actually catch NE in theory makes Jones a 25 carry guy this week, maybe more. Green will see the field but I am not sure he is a great play. Bucs will keep this somewhat close.
I figure he might be about in the Sproles/Norwood range this week (assuming Turner is out again). Dallas is tough against the run and Sproles has been hit or miss. The Jets have a chance of jumping out to a lead and running clock.
Good points
 
MOP, thanks for this- terrific analysis as always.

UGLY forecast (30mph winds and snow) for thursday's PIT-CLE game. does that impact your thoughts on the pass game and/or dependence on the run (on both sides of the ball). obviously mendenhall gets an upgrade, but for those of us more desperate at the flex, could the weather mean lots of touches and an upgrade for JHarrison (and check downs from Quinn who likely won't be comfortable throwing downfield given the weather conditions) against a Polamalu-less steelers squad? i'm considering rolling the dice and going with JHarrison over Turner who seems to be 50-50 to play best case, Beanie, Forsett and Bess. am i nuts?

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/nfl/...m=NFL_teamsched
i really have no idea why anyone would want to start turner this week. if he plays and that's a big if, you run the risk of another 12-33 with a re-injury.
 
MOP, thanks for this- terrific analysis as always.

UGLY forecast (30mph winds and snow) for thursday's PIT-CLE game. does that impact your thoughts on the pass game and/or dependence on the run (on both sides of the ball). obviously mendenhall gets an upgrade, but for those of us more desperate at the flex, could the weather mean lots of touches and an upgrade for JHarrison (and check downs from Quinn who likely won't be comfortable throwing downfield given the weather conditions) against a Polamalu-less steelers squad? i'm considering rolling the dice and going with JHarrison over Turner who seems to be 50-50 to play best case, Beanie, Forsett and Bess. am i nuts?

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/nfl/...m=NFL_teamsched
The Steelers play in a ot of bad weather. 30 mph winds is probably th ebiggest cause for concern but I still would think they can mount a passing attack of some sort. I don't see Harrison as as strong play this week no matter the conditions. This would make me want to bet the under though.

Can we get some Cleveland fans to report to us the day of with some better insight? We still are about 48 hours form kickoff ans sometiems things can change.

Edited to add: I believe I would sit Turner though...that would make Harrison a play.

 
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good stuff MOP

my only question this week is at QB with Favre or Schaub, I share your concerns about Schaub this week given everything going on but I am not crazy about Favre's matchup.

 
Need alittle of your insight MOP on this lineup decision.

Looks like i will start 2rb and 4wr's this week with DWILL gimpy.

this is a non ppr.

I have Pierre/Bell and Stew/Dwill. Im thinking Pierre and Stew if Dwill is out.

Then i would have to decide on which of these 4 wr's i roll out:

Driver vs CHI

Wayne vs DEN

Austin vs SDC

Avant vs NYG (if DJax is out)

Boldin vs SF

Ocho vs DET

D.Thomas vs OAK

Im playing Brees at qb this week and Gates at te.

 
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Need alittle of your insight MOP on this lineup decision.

Looks like i will start 2rb and 4wr's this week with DWILL gimpy.

this is a non ppr.

I have Pierre/Bell and Stew/Dwill. Im thinking Pierre and Stew if Dwill is out.

Then i would have to decide on which of these 4 wr's i roll out:

Driver vs CHI

Wayne vs DEN

Austin vs SDC

Avant vs NYG (if DJax is out)

Boldin vs SF

Ocho vs DET

D.Thomas vs OAK

Im playing Brees at qb this week and Gates at te.
Jackson has already said he plans to play.i'd play boldin. don't think ocho is playing detroit again. if he was, i'd start him again. driver looks solid and no way i'd ever sit wayne.

 
Need alittle of your insight MOP on this lineup decision.

Looks like i will start 2rb and 4wr's this week with DWILL gimpy.

this is a non ppr.

I have Pierre/Bell and Stew/Dwill. Im thinking Pierre and Stew if Dwill is out.

Then i would have to decide on which of these 4 wr's i roll out:

Driver vs CHI

Wayne vs DEN

Austin vs SDC

Avant vs NYG (if DJax is out)

Boldin vs SF

Ocho vs DET...you mean MN

D.Thomas vs OAK

Im playing Brees at qb this week and Gates at te.
The only decision here to me is Wayne or Ocho for the last spot...wait till Sunday and flip a coin, neither are terrible options. I think Ocho would be a decent play but nothing wrong with Wayne as a WR4...this isn't PPR though so that can juggle things a bit. You look to be in good shape UCB, good luck

 
Need alittle of your insight MOP on this lineup decision.

Looks like i will start 2rb and 4wr's this week with DWILL gimpy.

this is a non ppr.

I have Pierre/Bell and Stew/Dwill. Im thinking Pierre and Stew if Dwill is out.

Then i would have to decide on which of these 4 wr's i roll out:

Driver vs CHI

Wayne vs DEN

Austin vs SDC

Avant vs NYG (if DJax is out)

Boldin vs SF

Ocho vs DET...you mean MN

D.Thomas vs OAK

Im playing Brees at qb this week and Gates at te.
The only decision here to me is Wayne or Ocho for the last spot...wait till Sunday and flip a coin, neither are terrible options. I think Ocho would be a decent play but nothing wrong with Wayne as a WR4...this isn't PPR though so that can juggle things a bit. You look to be in good shape UCB, good luck
Thx fellas. Funny thing is i got 4 playoff games this week and i think i face Peyton Manning in all 4. I wish someone kidnapp his butt.
 
Rashard Medenhall: Outside of ADP week 1, Ryan Grant, and Larry Johnson of all folks, not a lot of RBs have had 100+ yd games. I believe Mendy will do OK this week but I would not project more than about 80-90 yds on the ground and about a 75% chance of a rushing TD…the Steelers only have 8 rushing TDs total on the season.
The Browns give up 154 ypg on the ground & 1.2 TDs. Everyone runs on them. They've just played lots of committees. (Denver, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cinci with Benson out). Heck, even Matt Forte had 90 yards on the ground and 2 TDs against them. They've only held two teams to under 100 yards - the Lions & Chargers who just threw on them all day (and their respective RBs did very well through the air).You were off on Mendenhall last week too - I've got him for 150 and 2 TDs as the Steelers get angry.

 
Rashard Medenhall: Outside of ADP week 1, Ryan Grant, and Larry Johnson of all folks, not a lot of RBs have had 100+ yd games. I believe Mendy will do OK this week but I would not project more than about 80-90 yds on the ground and about a 75% chance of a rushing TD…the Steelers only have 8 rushing TDs total on the season.
The Browns give up 154 ypg on the ground & 1.2 TDs. Everyone runs on them. They've just played lots of committees. (Denver, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cinci with Benson out). Heck, even Matt Forte had 90 yards on the ground and 2 TDs against them. They've only held two teams to under 100 yards - the Lions & Chargers who just threw on them all day (and their respective RBs did very well through the air).You were off on Mendenhall last week too - I've got him for 150 and 2 TDs as the Steelers get angry.
Did I bold him in red? He had an OK day this past week but he racked 100/TD...nothing to get too excited about. I see him having good but not great numbers this week. Edited to add: Last week I wrote..."Rashard Mendenhall: He has a chance for solid numbers but I don't see him as a top10 projection this week, really I don't. Too many other match ups I like better."

And he finished 11th, just outside the top10 but no need to split hairs. I did say he would post solid numbers, just other match ups last week that I liked better.

Good luck Bill

 
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Rashard Medenhall: Outside of ADP week 1, Ryan Grant, and Larry Johnson of all folks, not a lot of RBs have had 100+ yd games. I believe Mendy will do OK this week but I would not project more than about 80-90 yds on the ground and about a 75% chance of a rushing TD…the Steelers only have 8 rushing TDs total on the season.
The Browns give up 154 ypg on the ground & 1.2 TDs. Everyone runs on them. They've just played lots of committees. (Denver, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cinci with Benson out). Heck, even Matt Forte had 90 yards on the ground and 2 TDs against them. They've only held two teams to under 100 yards - the Lions & Chargers who just threw on them all day (and their respective RBs did very well through the air).You were off on Mendenhall last week too - I've got him for 150 and 2 TDs as the Steelers get angry.
Did I bold him in red? He had an OK day this past week but he racked 100/TD...nothing to get too excited about. I see him having good but not great numbers this week. Edited to add: Last week I wrote..."Rashard Mendenhall: He has a chance for solid numbers but I don't see him as a top10 projection this week, really I don't. Too many other match ups I like better."

And he finished 11th, just outside the top10 but no need to split hairs. I did say he would post solid numbers, just other match ups last week that I liked better.

Good luck Bill
Weather in Cleveland is supposed to be nasty. Snow, rain, wind.
 
Nice write up, i look forward to this every week.

Our rb's get 1PPR, 1pt/10yds rush/rec, 6pts/td's

I have Gore, Rice, and SJAX.

Who do you like the rest of the way, or should i play the match ups?

I've been starting Gore and Rice week after week, but SJAX is staying consistent now.

Our playoffs are weeks 15 and 16.

Rice vs. CHI and @ PITT

Gore @ Philly and vs. DET

SJAX vs. HOU and @ ARI

 
Really looking forward, and hoping, that Peterson is shut down a bit this week. he has never gone 5 games without 100 yards in his career, and Cincy would make 4.

I want my big time star primed to explode, coming off a week 14 bye and propelling me into a week 16 game for all the marbles

 
MoP: not just a post, but an education. Thank you for your generosity.

You asked for rosters, here's mine (minus stash-and-hopes like T. Choice):

Schaub vs. SEA

Smith vs. AZ

Greene vs. TB

McCoy vs. NYG

Moreno vs. IND

Rice vs. DET

V. Jackson vs. DAL

A. Johnson vs. SEA

C. Johnson vs. BAL

R. White vs. NO

R. Meachem vs. ATL

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR

TD-heavy scoring (1 pt/20 yards rush/receiv but only once you pass the 60-yard minimum)

Pass TDs worth 3 (1 pt/50 yards once pass 200)

Feel good about starting Moreno/Rice but what's your take on the receivers who aren't named Andre Johnson?

Also, is it time for Smith to start over Schaub? Or is that what you'd call over-thinking?

Once again: thanks!

 
Weather in Cleveland is supposed to be nasty. Snow, rain, wind.
Not sure what to make of the bad weather...these are bad weather teams meaning they see plenty of it so they should be used to it. Does it make for great passing plays? Maybe not but I'm not sure how far we want to go with Mendy and Harrison hype either. I'm gonna try and research it a bit, I can remember Pitt in some slushy sloshy type games with Miami and it didn't seem to slow them down much and it didn't make the Dolphins do all that well running the ball either. That's a small sample but Pitt likes bad weather IMO...where is the Steeler Nation when we need them?
 
Nice write up, i look forward to this every week.Our rb's get 1PPR, 1pt/10yds rush/rec, 6pts/td'sI have Gore, Rice, and SJAX.Who do you like the rest of the way, or should i play the match ups?I've been starting Gore and Rice week after week, but SJAX is staying consistent now.Our playoffs are weeks 15 and 16.Rice vs. CHI and @ PITTGore @ Philly and vs. DETSJAX vs. HOU and @ ARI
SJax has been one of the best at hitting double digits and I think he should answer the bell this week against TN. Rice has been great most of the year, seems a lot of folks are benching Gore but he hasn't exactly been a high RB1 for a lot of weeks now. I don't think any of them are awful choices but I probably like Rice and SJax best.
 
Here's a tough one for ya....

Pick 6 from the following (1RB/5 WR, 2 RB/4WR, 3RB/3WR) Standard PPR

Gore vs ARI

SJax vs TEN

Mendy vs CLE

Colston vs ATL

Roddy vs NO

Holmes vs CLE

Meachem vs ATL

Walter vs SEA

Schilens vs WAS

 
MoP: not just a post, but an education. Thank you for your generosity.

You asked for rosters, here's mine (minus stash-and-hopes like T. Choice):

Schaub vs. SEA

Smith vs. AZ

Greene vs. TB

McCoy vs. NYG

Moreno vs. IND

Rice vs. DET

V. Jackson vs. DAL

A. Johnson vs. SEA

C. Johnson vs. BAL

R. White vs. NO

R. Meachem vs. ATL

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR

TD-heavy scoring (1 pt/20 yards rush/receiv but only once you pass the 60-yard minimum)

Pass TDs worth 3 (1 pt/50 yards once pass 200)

Feel good about starting Moreno/Rice but what's your take on the receivers who aren't named Andre Johnson?

Also, is it time for Smith to start over Schaub? Or is that what you'd call over-thinking?

Once again: thanks!
I like Smith this week no doubt about it. Schaub...I would check the IR but with AJ you are going to reap some of the passing game there. Smith would spread it around a bit for you. I like Moreno and Rice but McCoy is not a terrible option right now.

AJ, Roddy White, you want to put VJax here but he really has been on the slide...I like Calvin if he is healthy, then Meachem who has been hitting double digits every week.

AJ, Roddy White, and Calvin Johnson is one sick group of WRs, I likely roll with that although you can play witht he WR3 some...Meachem and VJax are nice bench guys to have. Keep an open mind and check the weather reports as that could have a big impact for a couple of those guys.

 
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Here's a tough one for ya....

Pick 6 from the following (1RB/5 WR, 2 RB/4WR, 3RB/3WR) Standard PPR

Gore vs ARI

SJax vs TEN

Mendy vs CLE

Colston vs ATL

Roddy vs NO

Holmes vs CLE

Meachem vs ATL

Walter vs SEA

Schilens vs WAS
Weather might make me rethink Holmes but Meachem has been really explosive as of late...wish he had the targets to back him up...last week he did have 10+ but many weeks he has 2 targets but cashes one of them in for 40/TD so its hard to gauge him sometimes.
 
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Here's a tough one for ya....

Pick 6 from the following (1RB/5 WR, 2 RB/4WR, 3RB/3WR) Standard PPR

Gore vs ARI

SJax vs TEN

Mendy vs CLE

Colston vs ATL

Roddy vs NO

Holmes vs CLE

Meachem vs ATL

Walter vs SEA

Schilens vs WAS
Weather might make me rethink Holmes but Meachem has been really explosive as of late...wish he had the targets to back him up...last week he did have 10+ but many weeks he has 2 targets but cashes one of them in for 40/TD so its hard to gauge him sometimes.
Thanks :thumbup: Although the Gore matchup scares me with the lack of carries the last 3 weeks and his week 1 performance against ARI. Outside of the 2 TD's he got in that game, his numbers were bad.

ETA: Here's the weather report for Thursday's game.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/nfl/...m=NFL_teamsched

 
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PPR League (1/2 ppr RB, 3/4 ppr WR, 1 ppr TE), start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex (RB/WR)

RB's:

ADP

Jacobs

Moreno

Harrison

Fargas

Forsett

WR's:

Mike Sims-Walker

Hines Ward

Devin Hester

I planned to roll with MSW/Ward/Hester the rest of the way last week when I cut Mike Wallace for Harrison. Of course, Ward pulls his hammy and now it looks like I will be rolling with a waiver wire pick up in the first week of my playoffs.

RB's: I am definitely starting ADP and Moreno.

WR's: Gonna start MSW and Hester assuming Hester is good to go. I am at the bottom of the waiver order so Mike Wallace will be gone. Best available choices include:

Davone Bess (@ JAC), Devin Thomas (@OAK) Josh Morgan (vs. AZ)...my leaguemates read the board so I don't want to give my lean but was curious on who you'd target this week...

Flex: I think Harrison is going to be my flex player over Jacobs. I don't see NYG getting ahead of Philly and getting Jacobs more than 12-14 touches. Harrison should probably see a similar amount of carries, but get a lot more looks in the passing game. Thoughts?

 
I'm having trouble this week and it's week one of the playoffs. I typically use a RB in the FLEX spot but think I may go WR this week. This is NOT a PPR league just standard scoring...

QB - Schaub

RB - Beson, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Marion Barber, Justin Forsett

WR - AJ, MSW, TO, Steve Smith (CAR)

TE - Olsen

Right now I'm leaning towards going with Rice and Charles at RB and using AJ and TO at WR leaving me Mike Sims Walker as the FLEX. I hate leaving a guy like Benson on the bench, but feel like the Minnesota matchup will be a tough one.

Thoughts?

 
EdwardCat said:
I'm having trouble this week and it's week one of the playoffs. I typically use a RB in the FLEX spot but think I may go WR this week. This is NOT a PPR league just standard scoring...QB - SchaubRB - Beson, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Marion Barber, Justin ForsettWR - AJ, MSW, TO, Steve Smith (CAR)TE - OlsenRight now I'm leaning towards going with Rice and Charles at RB and using AJ and TO at WR leaving me Mike Sims Walker as the FLEX. I hate leaving a guy like Benson on the bench, but feel like the Minnesota matchup will be a tough one.Thoughts?
Minnesota won't be that tough of a matchup from here on out run-wise. The Henderson injury hurts them.
I'm not so sure. That front 4 can make just about any LB look good.
 
Rashard Medenhall: Outside of ADP week 1, Ryan Grant, and Larry Johnson of all folks, not a lot of RBs have had 100+ yd games. I believe Mendy will do OK this week but I would not project more than about 80-90 yds on the ground and about a 75% chance of a rushing TD…the Steelers only have 8 rushing TDs total on the season.
The Browns give up 154 ypg on the ground & 1.2 TDs. Everyone runs on them. They've just played lots of committees. (Denver, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cinci with Benson out). Heck, even Matt Forte had 90 yards on the ground and 2 TDs against them. They've only held two teams to under 100 yards - the Lions & Chargers who just threw on them all day (and their respective RBs did very well through the air).You were off on Mendenhall last week too - I've got him for 150 and 2 TDs as the Steelers get angry.
Did I bold him in red? He had an OK day this past week but he racked 100/TD...nothing to get too excited about. I see him having good but not great numbers this week. Edited to add: Last week I wrote..."Rashard Mendenhall: He has a chance for solid numbers but I don't see him as a top10 projection this week, really I don't. Too many other match ups I like better."

And he finished 11th, just outside the top10 but no need to split hairs. I did say he would post solid numbers, just other match ups last week that I liked better.

Good luck Bill
Sorry, didn't mean to come off like such a #####! I just thought you were giving Cleveland way more credit than they deserved. They truly are one of the worst defenses I've watched in awhile, have an offense that can't compete, and are playing a team that's angry. Toss some bad weather into the mix, and I can see Mendenhall with a handful of long runs. I can't think of 5 RBs I'd rather have this week. I'm going with Mendy & Thomas Jones over DeAngelo who I'm wary of with this ankle injury even if he plays.

In that same league I was fearlessly rolling out Vince Young over Palmer & Garrard - but I'm wavering toward Garrard.

Thanks for the write up as usual.

 
This is a phenomenal post and shows someone that cares about our hobby! Thank you for that and good luck to you all in this big week 14!

Non PPR:

Addai or Maroney

Pick 3 WR Ocho, Desean (if plays), MSW, Driver, or Harvin.

Thank you for any input!

 
Enjoy reading this every week from you. Takes a lot of guts to put your own work out there publicly.

No playoffs for me but: 1qb, 2rb, 2wr

A.Smith

J.Flacco

L.Maroney

K.Moreno

J.Forsett

L.McCoy

M.Turner

A.Johnson

D.Jackson

K.Britt

R.Meachem

P.Garcon

Celek

Carpenter

NO Def

 
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For those saying I am anti-Mendy...didn't actually read what I wrote last week which was I expect solid numbers but not top10...he ended the week #11 on FBG weekly stats...I'm not splitting hairs but he was solid last week but didn't cover for anything you missed at your RB2, or RB! depending on how you use Mendy.

He exlpoded for 33 against San Diego at home week 4

17 and 15 weeks 5 and 6 against Detroit and Cleveland, lot of RBs have done that.

7 against MN, sure we all forgive him for that. Then it was 17 against Denver, 5 against Cinci, again a tough run defense.

21, 13, 16 the past 3 weeks...certainly he has been a starter for most owners.

13/36 against Cinci a few weeks back, 21/80, 24/95, 20/103...OK but he has only 1 rushing TD that would be last week since WEEK 6...let's not pretend that he is an auto start for everyone. No catches last week, most games he has less than 2...if a team shuts him down running there is little room for him to make it up in receptions.

I appreciate everyone pointing out that I am pretty harsh on Mendy, I think I am more objective than anything but I understand the love by his owners. He has 3 100 yd rushing games, 1 TD on the ground the past 6 weeks as well. Just trying to keep it real...read the Peyton Manning write up, I'm not going to shower sunshine where it doesn't always belong.

What are folks thinking this week? 120/2TDs? Post something concrete like Andy did last week so we can get a read on things. If anyone posted Mendy having 100/TD last week I would not have thought they were off the ranch.

 
Rock Cartwright: 21 against Dallas 3 weeks ago, 9 against Philly and 10 last week. He is an interesting sleeper this week. Oakland does not stop the run all that well but then again Washington doesn’t run it all that well. Sleeper play wih some very certain risk involved. Portis could come back this week but I believe Portis wants the season to end and I also believe he is going to beg to get out of Washington while he can still do some damage for another team even in a 2 back system.
Portis was placed on IR today. His vision problems resulting from his concussion were getting worse. Cartwright has been losing some carries to Quinton Ganther, who apparently looked better than Cartwright last week.
 
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Rashard Medenhall: Outside of ADP week 1, Ryan Grant, and Larry Johnson of all folks, not a lot of RBs have had 100+ yd games. I believe Mendy will do OK this week but I would not project more than about 80-90 yds on the ground and about a 75% chance of a rushing TD…the Steelers only have 8 rushing TDs total on the season.
The Browns give up 154 ypg on the ground & 1.2 TDs. Everyone runs on them. They've just played lots of committees. (Denver, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cinci with Benson out). Heck, even Matt Forte had 90 yards on the ground and 2 TDs against them. They've only held two teams to under 100 yards - the Lions & Chargers who just threw on them all day (and their respective RBs did very well through the air).You were off on Mendenhall last week too - I've got him for 150 and 2 TDs as the Steelers get angry.
Did I bold him in red? He had an OK day this past week but he racked 100/TD...nothing to get too excited about. I see him having good but not great numbers this week. Edited to add: Last week I wrote..."Rashard Mendenhall: He has a chance for solid numbers but I don't see him as a top10 projection this week, really I don't. Too many other match ups I like better."

And he finished 11th, just outside the top10 but no need to split hairs. I did say he would post solid numbers, just other match ups last week that I liked better.

Good luck Bill
Sorry, didn't mean to come off like such a #####! I just thought you were giving Cleveland way more credit than they deserved. They truly are one of the worst defenses I've watched in awhile, have an offense that can't compete, and are playing a team that's angry. Toss some bad weather into the mix, and I can see Mendenhall with a handful of long runs. I can't think of 5 RBs I'd rather have this week. I'm going with Mendy & Thomas Jones over DeAngelo who I'm wary of with this ankle injury even if he plays.

In that same league I was fearlessly rolling out Vince Young over Palmer & Garrard - but I'm wavering toward Garrard.

Thanks for the write up as usual.
That's why we do this, many many many times I am off. I just like to see and understand why I am off. You all are amking good points about Cleveland but they are trying...bad weather could help them or maybe hurt them. Short week, Pitt is banged up adn that is not helping things.
 
EdwardCat said:
PPR league (0.5ppr/0.1per yard) standard scoring:

QB:

Brees

RB (start 2):

Peterson vs CIN

Charles vs BUF

Mendenhall vs CLE

WR (start 3):

Gates vs DAL

Jackson vs NYG

Jennings vs CHI

White vs NO

Marshall vs IND

Bolded guys are who I'm learning towards. It is hard to sit Peterson. However, in light of his miserable play recently and the seriously tough matchup, combined with the Charles/Mendenhall matchups, I must regretfully bench him.

As for Jennings, he's on my perma-bench.
I just wrote that I can't think of 5 guys I'd rather have this week than Mendenhall...There are four: Rice, Johnson, ADP, and MJD. Why does Cincinatti scare you?

 
EdwardCat said:
PPR league (0.5ppr/0.1per yard) standard scoring:

QB:

Brees

RB (start 2):

Peterson vs CIN

Charles vs BUF

Mendenhall vs CLE

WR (start 3):

Gates vs DAL

Jackson vs NYG

Jennings vs CHI

White vs NO

Marshall vs IND

Bolded guys are who I'm learning towards. It is hard to sit Peterson. However, in light of his miserable play recently and the seriously tough matchup, combined with the Charles/Mendenhall matchups, I must regretfully bench him.

As for Jennings, he's on my perma-bench.
I just wrote that I can't think of 5 guys I'd rather have this week than Mendenhall...There are four: Rice, Johnson, ADP, and MJD. Why does Cincinatti scare you?
i'd start Mendenhall ahead of MJD who seems to have pissed off the TD gods with his decision to take a knee at the 1 - 'you don't want a TD? fine. no more TDs for you this year.' LOL.
 
Thanks for the reply, MoP. Your insight is appreciated.

I'm curious as to what is holding you back in terms of Meachem's value.

I usually follow the targets too, but the NO offense is out of hand and in recent games it seems that Meachem is getting more and more work. Yet he's still viewed as a "situational" player.

What's it going to take for him to be treated as a solid WR1b?

 
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PPR League (1/2 ppr RB, 3/4 ppr WR, 1 ppr TE), start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex (RB/WR)RB's:ADPJacobsMorenoHarrisonFargasForsettWR's:Mike Sims-WalkerHines WardDevin HesterI planned to roll with MSW/Ward/Hester the rest of the way last week when I cut Mike Wallace for Harrison. Of course, Ward pulls his hammy and now it looks like I will be rolling with a waiver wire pick up in the first week of my playoffs. RB's: I am definitely starting ADP and Moreno. WR's: Gonna start MSW and Hester assuming Hester is good to go. I am at the bottom of the waiver order so Mike Wallace will be gone. Best available choices include:Davone Bess (@ JAC), Devin Thomas (@OAK) Josh Morgan (vs. AZ)...my leaguemates read the board so I don't want to give my lean but was curious on who you'd target this week...Flex: I think Harrison is going to be my flex player over Jacobs. I don't see NYG getting ahead of Philly and getting Jacobs more than 12-14 touches. Harrison should probably see a similar amount of carries, but get a lot more looks in the passing game. Thoughts?
I like Bess and Morgan in that order of wire. bess is a great ppr play. gl man
 
Non PPR Standard league 1 QB, 2RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 PK 1 DEF

Qb Kurt Warner

Qb Alex Smith

RB Steven Jackson

RB Matt Forte

RB Fred Jackson

RB Chris Brown

WR Hines Ward

WR Mike Sims-Walker

WR Steve Smith (Car)

WR Jerico Cotchery

TE Gates

K Gostkowski

DEF Eagles

Def Titans

also thinking of dropping Chris Brown for Bess or D. Thomas for WR help while Ward is out.

Thanks for your forecasts each week BTW

 
EdwardCat said:
If you are a receiving back, you do very well against Cincy (Rice, Slaton). My concern is the fact that Peterson is pulled on every 3rd down and many times inside the 10 yard line. Chester Taylor could have a very big game here. If I started Peterson, I'd probably bench Mendenhall for Charles. The fact is, Charles and Mendenhall both have easy matchups and are the most likely to have 100 total yards and a TD. Peterson isn't. He hasn't done well even against decent matchups as of late. I don't trust him.
Over the past 4 weeks, only two teams have surrendered fewer fantasy points to opposing RBs than the Cincinnati Bengals (Baltimore and the Pack).Factor in ADP's struggles in good matchups, the offensive line woes and the Favre-Shiancoe red zone combo... seems pretty clear cut to me.Especially with the weather in Cleveland sounding downright ugly.
 
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EdwardCat said:
If you are a receiving back, you do very well against Cincy (Rice, Slaton). My concern is the fact that Peterson is pulled on every 3rd down and many times inside the 10 yard line. Chester Taylor could have a very big game here. If I started Peterson, I'd probably bench Mendenhall for Charles. The fact is, Charles and Mendenhall both have easy matchups and are the most likely to have 100 total yards and a TD. Peterson isn't. He hasn't done well even against decent matchups as of late. I don't trust him.
Over the past 4 weeks, only two teams have surrendered fewer fantasy points to opposing RBs than the Cincinnati Bengals (Baltimore and the Pack).Factor in ADP's struggles in good matchups, the offensive line woes and the Favre-Shiancoe red zone combo... seems pretty clear cut to me.Especially with the weather in Cleveland sounding downright ugly.
I just want to make sure I am reading this right...we are benching ADP for Medenhall, is that correct?
 
Rock Cartwright: 21 against Dallas 3 weeks ago, 9 against Philly and 10 last week. He is an interesting sleeper this week. Oakland does not stop the run all that well but then again Washington doesn’t run it all that well. Sleeper play wih some very certain risk involved. Portis could come back this week but I believe Portis wants the season to end and I also believe he is going to beg to get out of Washington while he can still do some damage for another team even in a 2 back system.
Portis was placed on IR today. His vision problems resulting from his concussion were getting worse. Cartwright has been losing some carries to Quinton Ganther, who apparently looked better than Cartwright last week.
Ganther has been named the starter against Oakland.
 

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