JayMan
Footballguy
The setup:
From JAA's thread - where he asked if you would prefer 2xRB1 or 4xRB2 guys on your squad to start the season - I have looked at every RB season since 1996 - to figure out where RB1, RB2 or RB3+ from year n end up in year n+1...
I have used FBG scoring to rank the RBs from 1996 on.
The assumption is that it's a 12 teams league, thus:
RB1
= ranked in the top12 in year n
RB2 = ranked 13th to 24th in year n
RB3+ = ranked further than 24th in year n
RB1(n+1) = ranked in the top12 in year n+1
RB2(n+1) = ranked 13th to 24th in year n+1
RB3+(n+1) = ranked further than 24th in year n+1
Ovbiously, "Ranked in year n" means "finished at that spot in year n" - and not, "was predicted to finished at that spot in year n".
The results:
--------------RB1(n+1)-----RB2(n+1)-----RB3+(n+1)
RB1-------48.1%---------27.8%----------24.1%
RB2-------21.3%---------25.0%----------53.7%
RB3+-----19.5%---------37.9%
rooks---------11.1%----------9.3%
How to interpret the matrix:
The 48.1% figure shows that 48% of RB1 in year n will repeat as RB1 in year n+1... also, 28% of RB1 in year n will become RB2 in year n+1... and 24% of the RB1 in year n won't even make the top24 in year n+1
For the RB2 year n bunch... we can see that 21% will upgrade to RB1 in year n+1... while 25% will remain RB2 in year n+1... finally, 54% will downgrade out of the top24...
Interesting enough - 19% of RB1 in year n+1 comes from guys that were not in the top24 in year n... while 11% of RB1 are coming from rookie seasons...
Conclusions:
We clearly see that a Stud RB has a better chance of remaining in the top12 - for the next year (6 of the 12 RB1 will be "repeaters") while 3 of the remaining 6 will probably come from the RB2 bunch of the previous year... 2 from outside the top24... and 1 rookie...
Who will it be this year?
Evidently, opportunities / talent / coaching / injuries / opponents / teamates / schemes - all of these are more imporant variables then past history to try and figure out who has a chance of being a stud RB in any particular year... What I think can be drawn from this is, that we need not to assume that if a guy did well in year n - that it will automatically be the case in year n+1... or vice versa...
Obviously, this is a small sample study - since I only looked at RBs seasons from 1996 on - and we can't expect history to repeat itself... I just think that we need to keep this in mind when doing projections/rankings/tierings...
---
Here are the expented results (to be pasted in a .csv format file):
The (*) tag in front of the name denotes a rookie season.
From JAA's thread - where he asked if you would prefer 2xRB1 or 4xRB2 guys on your squad to start the season - I have looked at every RB season since 1996 - to figure out where RB1, RB2 or RB3+ from year n end up in year n+1...
I have used FBG scoring to rank the RBs from 1996 on.
The assumption is that it's a 12 teams league, thus:
RB1
= ranked in the top12 in year nRB2
= ranked 13th to 24th in year nRB3+
= ranked further than 24th in year nRB1(n+1) = ranked in the top12 in year n+1
RB2(n+1) = ranked 13th to 24th in year n+1
RB3+(n+1) = ranked further than 24th in year n+1
Ovbiously, "Ranked in year n" means "finished at that spot in year n" - and not, "was predicted to finished at that spot in year n".
The results:
--------------RB1(n+1)-----RB2(n+1)-----RB3+(n+1)
RB1
-------48.1%---------27.8%----------24.1%RB2
-------21.3%---------25.0%----------53.7%RB3+
-----19.5%---------37.9%rooks---------11.1%----------9.3%
How to interpret the matrix:
The 48.1% figure shows that 48% of RB1 in year n will repeat as RB1 in year n+1... also, 28% of RB1 in year n will become RB2 in year n+1... and 24% of the RB1 in year n won't even make the top24 in year n+1
For the RB2 year n bunch... we can see that 21% will upgrade to RB1 in year n+1... while 25% will remain RB2 in year n+1... finally, 54% will downgrade out of the top24...
Interesting enough - 19% of RB1 in year n+1 comes from guys that were not in the top24 in year n... while 11% of RB1 are coming from rookie seasons...
Conclusions:
We clearly see that a Stud RB has a better chance of remaining in the top12 - for the next year (6 of the 12 RB1 will be "repeaters") while 3 of the remaining 6 will probably come from the RB2 bunch of the previous year... 2 from outside the top24... and 1 rookie...
Who will it be this year?
Evidently, opportunities / talent / coaching / injuries / opponents / teamates / schemes - all of these are more imporant variables then past history to try and figure out who has a chance of being a stud RB in any particular year... What I think can be drawn from this is, that we need not to assume that if a guy did well in year n - that it will automatically be the case in year n+1... or vice versa...
Obviously, this is a small sample study - since I only looked at RBs seasons from 1996 on - and we can't expect history to repeat itself... I just think that we need to keep this in mind when doing projections/rankings/tierings...
---
Here are the expented results (to be pasted in a .csv format file):
The (*) tag in front of the name denotes a rookie season.
Code:
RB1:name;year(n);ffpts;rank;RB1(n+1);RB2(n+1);RB3+(n+1)Shaun Alexander;2005;363;1;;;Larry Johnson;2005;335;2;;;LaDainian Tomlinson;2005;316;3;;;Tiki Barber;2005;305;4;;;Edgerrin James;2005;268;5;;;Clinton Portis;2005;243;6;;;Rudi Johnson;2005;226;7;;;Lamont Jordan;2005;224;8;;;Thomas Jones;2005;201;9;;;Mike Anderson;2005;200;10;;;Steven Jackson;2005;196;11;;;Warrick Dunn;2005;187;12;;;Shaun Alexander;2004;306;1;yes;no;noTiki Barber;2004;299;2;yes;no;noLaDainian Tomlinson;2004;286;3;yes;no;noCurtis Martin;2004;278;4;no;no;yesDomanick Davis;2004;261;5;no;yes;noEdgerrin James;2004;257;6;yes;no;noCorey Dillon;2004;251;7;no;yes;noRudi Johnson;2004;225;8;yes;no;no(*) Willis McGahee;2004;207;9;no;yes;noBrian Westbrook;2004;205;10;no;yes;noClinton Portis;2004;201;11;yes;no;noPriest Holmes;2004;197;12;no;no;yesPriest Holmes;2003;373;1;yes;no;noAhman Green;2003;345;2;no;yes;noLaDainian Tomlinson;2003;343;3;yes;no;noJamal Lewis;2003;311;4;no;no;yesClinton Portis;2003;274;5;yes;no;noShaun Alexander;2003;269;6;yes;no;noDeuce McAllister;2003;263;7;no;yes;noFred Taylor;2003;236;8;no;yes;noRicky Williams;2003;232;9;no;no;yesEdgerrin James;2003;221;10;yes;no;noTravis Henry;2003;217;11;no;no;yesStephen Davis;2003;208;12;no;no;yesPriest Holmes;2002;372;1;yes;no;noRicky Williams;2002;323;2;yes;no;noLaDainian Tomlinson;2002;307;3;yes;no;no(*) Clinton Portis;2002;289;4;yes;no;noShaun Alexander;2002;271;5;yes;no;noDeuce McAllister;2002;270;6;yes;no;noTiki Barber;2002;264;7;no;yes;noTravis Henry;2002;258;8;yes;no;noCharlie Garner;2002;256;9;no;no;yesEddie George;2002;226;10;no;yes;noFred Taylor;2002;220;11;yes;no;noJamal Lewis;2002;218;12;yes;no;noMarshall Faulk;2001;340;1;no;yes;noPriest Holmes;2001;276;2;yes;no;noAhman Green;2001;264;3;no;yes;noShaun Alexander;2001;262;4;yes;no;noCurtis Martin;2001;247;5;no;yes;noCorey Dillon;2001;232;6;no;yes;no(*) LaDainian Tomlinson;2001;220;7;yes;no;noRicky Williams;2001;217;8;yes;no;noAntowain Smith;2001;212;9;no;yes;noStephen Davis;2001;193;10;no;no;yes(*) Dominic Rhodes;2001;186;11;no;no;yesGarrison Hearst;2001;185;12;no;yes;noMarshall Faulk;2000;374;1;yes;no;noEdgerrin James;2000;338;2;no;no;yesEddie George;2000;292;3;no;yes;no(*) Mike Anderson;2000;255;4;no;no;yesAhman Green;2000;251;5;yes;no;noFred Taylor;2000;247;6;no;no;yesRobert Smith;2000;246;7;no;no;yesRicky Watters;2000;239;8;no;no;yesCharlie Garner;2000;238;9;no;yes;noCurtis Martin;2000;237;10;yes;no;noLamar Smith;2000;230;11;no;yes;noStephen Davis;2000;229;12;yes;no;no(*) Edgerrin James;1999;315;1;yes;no;noMarshall Faulk;1999;314;2;yes;no;noEddie George;1999;254;3;yes;no;noStephen Davis;1999;253;4;yes;no;noEmmitt Smith;1999;229;5;no;yes;noDorsey Levens;1999;220;6;no;no;yesCharlie Garner;1999;212;7;yes;no;noCurtis Martin;1999;202;8;yes;no;noRicky Watters;1999;201;9;yes;no;noDuce Staley;1999;192;10;no;no;yesCorey Dillon;1999;185;11;no;yes;noJames Stewart;1999;181;12;no;yes;noTerrell Davis;1998;360;1;no;no;yesJamal Anderson;1998;312;2;no;no;yesMarshall Faulk;1998;282;3;yes;no;no(*) Fred Taylor;1998;266;4;no;no;yesGarrison Hearst;1998;264;5;no;no;yesEmmitt Smith;1998;240;6;yes;no;noCurtis Martin;1998;219;7;yes;no;no(*) Robert Edwards;1998;216;8;no;no;yesRicky Watters;1998;215;9;yes;no;noBarry Sanders;1998;202;10;no;no;yesEddie George;1998;196;11;yes;no;noRobert Smith;1998;195;12;no;yes;noBarry Sanders;1997;319;1;yes;no;noTerrell Davis;1997;293;2;yes;no;noDorsey Levens;1997;252;3;no;no;yesJerome Bettis;1997;231;4;no;yes;noNapoleon Kaufman;1997;217;5;no;no;yesKarim Abdul-Jabbar;1997;211;6;no;yes;noMarshall Faulk;1997;200;7;yes;no;no(*) Corey Dillon;1997;198;8;no;yes;noRicky Watters;1997;197;9;yes;no;noRobert Smith;1997;188;10;yes;no;noJamal Anderson;1997;188;11;yes;no;no(*) Warrick Dunn;1997;186;12;no;yes;noTerry Allen;1996;280;1;no;no;yesTerrell Davis;1996;274;2;yes;no;noRicky Watters;1996;263;3;yes;no;noCurtis Martin;1996;250;4;no;yes;noBarry Sanders;1996;236;5;yes;no;noEmmitt Smith;1996;235;6;no;yes;noJerome Bettis;1996;221;7;yes;no;no(*) Eddie George;1996;203;8;no;yes;no(*) Karim Abdul-Jabbar;1996;191;9;yes;no;noJamal Anderson;1996;188;10;yes;no;noThurman Thomas;1996;176;11;no;no;yesAdrian Murrell;1996;175;12;no;yes;no---RB2:name;year(n);ffpts;rank;RB1(n+1);RB2(n+1);RB3+(n+1)Willie Parker;2005;172;13;;;Reuben Droughns;2005;172;14;;;Willis McGahee;2005;172;15;;;Corey Dillon;2005;169;16;;;Domanick Davis;2005;167;17;;;Brian Westbrook;2005;165;18;;;(*) Cadillac Williams;2005;161;19;;;Chris Brown;2005;159;20;;;Julius Jones;2005;151;21;;;Tatum Bell;2005;150;22;;;DeShaun Foster;2005;143;23;;;(*) Ronnie Brown;2005;143;24;;;Ahman Green;2004;196;13;no;no;yesReuben Droughns;2004;196;14;no;yes;noWarrick Dunn;2004;194;15;yes;no;noMichael Pittman;2004;191;16;no;no;yesDeuce McAllister;2004;184;17;no;no;yesJerome Bettis;2004;181;18;no;no;yesThomas Jones;2004;179;19;yes;no;noFred Taylor;2004;174;20;no;no;yes(*) Kevin Jones;2004;167;21;no;no;yesNick Goings;2004;163;22;no;no;yesEmmitt Smith;2004;162;23;no;no;yesChris Brown;2004;157;24;no;yes;no(*) Domanick Davis;2003;186;13;yes;no;noMoe Williams;2003;186;14;no;no;yesTiki Barber;2003;185;15;yes;no;noMarshall Faulk;2003;176;16;no;no;yesKevan Barlow;2003;175;17;no;no;yesCurtis Martin;2003;169;18;yes;no;noRudi Johnson;2003;164;19;yes;no;noBrian Westbrook;2003;160;20;yes;no;noT.J. Duckett;2003;153;21;no;no;yesEddie George;2003;149;22;no;no;yesMichael Pittman;2003;146;23;no;yes;noAnthony Thomas;2003;142;24;no;no;yesAhman Green;2002;217;13;yes;no;noMarshall Faulk;2002;209;14;no;yes;noDuce Staley;2002;205;15;no;no;yesCorey Dillon;2002;202;16;no;no;yesMichael Bennett;2002;200;17;no;no;yesCurtis Martin;2002;187;18;no;yes;noWarrick Dunn;2002;184;19;no;no;yesGarrison Hearst;2002;182;20;no;no;yes(*) Marcel Shipp;2002;178;21;no;no;yesJames Stewart;2002;171;22;no;no;yesAntowain Smith;2002;170;23;no;no;yesEdgerrin James;2002;152;24;yes;no;no(*) Anthony Thomas;2001;178;13;no;no;yesTiki Barber;2001;168;14;yes;no;noLamar Smith;2001;168;15;no;no;yesStacey Mack;2001;164;16;no;no;yesCharlie Garner;2001;159;17;yes;no;noMike Alstott;2001;157;18;no;no;yesEddie George;2001;151;19;yes;no;noDuce Staley;2001;147;20;no;yes;noJerome Bettis;2001;141;21;no;no;yesMichael Pittman;2001;141;22;no;no;yesWarrick Dunn;2001;136;23;no;yes;noMaurice Smith;2001;135;24;no;no;yesTiki Barber;2000;226;13;no;yes;noJames Stewart;2000;213;14;no;no;yesWarrick Dunn;2000;209;15;no;yes;no(*) Jamal Lewis;2000;202;16;no;no;yesCorey Dillon;2000;201;17;yes;no;noRicky Williams;2000;194;18;yes;no;noJerome Bettis;2000;191;19;no;yes;noEmmitt Smith;2000;182;20;no;no;yesTyrone Wheatley;2000;180;21;no;no;yesJamal Anderson;2000;176;22;no;no;yesMichael Pittman;2000;165;23;no;yes;noJames Allen;2000;159;24;no;no;yesTyrone Wheatley;1999;179;13;no;yes;no(*) Olandis Gary;1999;173;14;no;no;yesMike Alstott;1999;172;15;no;no;yesJerome Bettis;1999;162;16;no;yes;noTerry Allen;1999;156;17;no;no;yesCurtis Enis;1999;155;18;no;no;yesTerry Kirby;1999;152;19;no;no;yesErrict Rhett;1999;144;20;no;no;yesWarrick Dunn;1999;132;21;no;yes;noLeroy Hoard;1999;132;22;no;no;yesRobert Smith;1999;130;23;yes;no;noRichard Huntley;1999;130;24;no;no;yesDuce Staley;1998;185;13;yes;no;noAdrian Murrell;1998;181;14;no;no;yesPriest Holmes;1998;168;15;no;no;yesAntowain Smith;1998;161;16;no;no;yesCorey Dillon;1998;160;17;yes;no;noMike Alstott;1998;153;18;no;yes;noWarrick Dunn;1998;149;19;no;yes;noJerome Bettis;1998;145;20;no;yes;noKarim Abdul-Jabbar;1998;142;21;no;no;yesGary Brown;1998;139;22;no;no;yesNatrone Means;1998;127;23;no;no;yesLeroy Hoard;1998;127;24;no;yes;noEddie George;1997;186;13;yes;no;noCurtis Martin;1997;175;14;yes;no;noRaymont Harris;1997;174;15;no;no;yesAdrian Murrell;1997;161;16;no;yes;noGarrison Hearst;1997;157;17;yes;no;noEmmitt Smith;1997;154;18;yes;no;no(*) Antowain Smith;1997;149;19;no;yes;noNatrone Means;1997;146;20;no;yes;noMike Alstott;1997;144;21;no;yes;noJames Stewart;1997;143;22;no;no;yesChris Warren;1997;134;23;no;no;yesGary Brown;1997;132;24;no;yes;noLarry Centers;1996;173;13;no;no;yesAnthony Johnson;1996;167;14;no;no;yesMarcus Allen;1996;164;15;no;no;yesJames Stewart;1996;150;16;no;yes;noMarshall Faulk;1996;143;17;yes;no;noChris Warren;1996;142;18;no;yes;noDorsey Levens;1996;139;19;yes;no;noRaymont Harris;1996;134;20;no;yes;noLeonard Russell;1996;131;21;no;no;yes(*) Mike Alstott;1996;129;22;no;yes;noBam Morris;1996;127;23;no;no;yesEdgar Bennett;1996;125;24;no;no;yes
