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RBs to Exploit/Avoid Week 8 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Let's jump right into it. I will color code them in sometime tomorrow.

Denver at Baltimore (-3.5) (41.5)

Knowshon Moreno: Not going to be real easy to find running room this week. The Ravens have lost 3 games in a row and I look for them to come in mad this week. The Ravens allowed Cedric Benson to run for 120 yds and a TD, ADP got 140 and 4 receptions to go with his. Moreno is not where those 2 backs are in terms of experience in the NFL so I believe he will not put up numbers similar to those 2. If I had to project out I would say Moreno is likely in a 15-18 carries, maybe 50-65/75 yds rushing. Denver does not make getting the back involved in the passing game a priority. Buck and Moreno combine for about 3-4 catches a week.

Correll Buckhalter: Does well with the limited number of touches he gets each week but I don’t believe he will tear up Baltimore for a lot this weekend. Deeper leagues you might look at a flex spot here but you would need a lot of bye week issues factored in too.

Ray Rice: 17, 20, 27, 41…that is what Ray Rice has done the past 4 games. As his totals rise the losses have mounted for the Ravens. Pure coincidence I assume but just something to track. Seriously though, Rice is paying off big time for those that invested a 4th or 5th for him in drafts. The Bornocs have not allowed any back to rush for 100 yds but Rice has only topped that mark by a couple yds twice this season. What he excels at is receptions and Denver has allowed 6 to Cin, 5 to Cle, 8 to Oak, 8 to Dal, 5 to NE, 6 to SD…Rice should be good for at least 5-6 receptions if Baltimore wants to try and exploit that. Top10 numbers might be hard for Rice this week but then again he is quickly becoming a regular even against better teams.

Final Score: Baltimore 20…Denver 17

Cleveland at Chicago (-13) (40)

Jamal Lewis: Never a good option this season. You can throw out the Benson game last week against the Bears because otherwise they have been close to lights out for opposing RBs and Lewis is getting old, has no talent surrounding him, has virtually no upside right now.

Matt Forte: He continues to punish the owners that drafted him. If this was your plan I bet it has been a rocky season for you and a lot of WW work just to stay in it. He has all the tools and Chicago is light years ahead of Cleveland, MF should blow up this week against a defense that is rather terrible. Ryan Grant looked like a Pro Bowler last week against the Browns.

Final Score: Chicago 27…Cleveland 13

Houston at Buffalo (+3.5) (41)

Steve Slaton: SS has topped the 20 point mark in 3 of the last 4 weeks. He is starting to gain some momentum and even though he has a poor ypc avg he should see some big running lanes this weekend as Houston will want to establish the run, lean on Slaton as AJ is ailing a bit and their passing game much like NO could get grounded in buffalo this weekend. Slaton is a must start.

Marshawn Lynch: 17, 19, 17…those are his carry totals form the past 3 weeks so he is getting touches, close to 20 each week. His numbers other than 1 week have been pedestrian but owners should keep putting him out there. Now I do want to point out this board known as the Shark Pool made some great observations about the Houston rush defense last week and if you did see them and applied them then you avoided the Gore debacle last week. It might be tough for Lynch to grind out much more than about 65-75 yds and he will need a TD to turn a profit for owners, that’s something Buffalo does not do a lot of, score TDs.

Final Score: Houston 20…Buffalo 10

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3) (47.5)

Adrian Peterson: 21, 18, 22…his scores the last 3 weeks have been more than solid. Owners would like him to do what he did in week 1 every week but he still is very close to being the best in the league.

Ryan Grant: Had a big day last week but I believe Green Bay will try and attack the secondary of the Vikings. This will open up the run lanes in the 2nd half of the football game. Grant is almost a lock for double digits every week, can he shoot pat the 12-15 range again this week? Gonna be tough to do it against the Vikes.

Final Score: Minnesota 24…Green Bay 23

San Fran at INDY (-12) (44)

Frank Gore: Perhaps he came back from his injury to quickly. If you start Gore, it’s a leap of faith and more a product of what he has done in the past. The Colts are playing at a high level on both sides it seems right now.

Joseph Addai: Looks like Donald Brown is OUT this week, it could make for a big game or he might be asked to do too much. 16, 22, 24, 13 last week…he is almost a lock for double digits, just a matter if it will be a 2 or a 3 as the 1st digit.

Final Score: Indy 27…San Fran 17

Miami at NY Jets (-3) (40.5)

Ronnie Brown: Was held in check a bit last week and was not able to make the Wildcat work for him. I look for the Jets to do the same exact thing, crash the DBs and OLBs to attack the RB until Miami can throw or do something else besides run it up the middle every time which is what they had done until this past week. Brown will get plenty of touches and Kris Jenkins is done for the season, look for a solid game this week.

Ricky Williams: That will be his high score of the year last week, don’t chase points. Still, he is coming off 4 weeks in a row of double digits that look like this…18, 16, 16, and 29…for me to tell you to sit him flys in the face of what he is doing. Solid flex play every week right now, slowly working his way to an every week starter but don’t forget that he is likely to only touch the ball about 10-12 times…sometimes a little more but he is not the primary back in the offense.

Thomas Jones: Weekly starter for sure right now. Miami is pretty good at stopping the run but Jones will be fed a lot as New York tries to pull together and jump back into the playoff race. He’s on pace for about 1,300-1,400 yds and almost 16 TDs…sure is turning in a great performance for a 4th-5th round pick. Those rounds seem to be a real sweet spot this year for finding RB gold.

Leon Washington: Sustained a severe broken leg last week against Oakland and is OUT for the remainder of the season, and he will likely have a very long recovery and his 2010 season is not a surefire bet for him to be 100%. Feel especially bad for Dynasty Owners that have him.

Shonn Greene: Burst onto the scene last week with and racked up 19/144/2TDs. I really don’t know if he has good hands or not. I thought he was billed as the future replacement for Thomas Jones, now he will likely see somewhere around 30-40% of the carries, depending on the match up and the score week to week. I picked him up off waivers in one of my redraft leagues this week and he was a hot buy in most of my others. You can be sure he will see touches, the Jets must keep Jones fresh if they are to make a serious run for the playoffs this year.

Final Score: Miami 21…NY Jets 20

St Louis at Detroit (-4) (44)

Steven Jackson: Should be one of his better games of the year. Most backs have had solid days against Detroit, even though the Rams are pathetic right now, still should be able to compete with the Lions who are not world beaters just yet.

Kevin Smith: 20, 11, 14, 21, 12, and then last week he had a stinker with only 6. But I think Smith is fine, the return of Stafford and Calvin assuming they can go, that will only help him and his ceiling. He should rack up a lot of yds against the Rams.

Final Score: Detroit 28…St Louis 17

Seattle at Dallas (-10) (46)

Julius Jones: Had 2 good weeks the 1st 3 weeks of the season, and since then has done diddly poo,, surprise surprise surprise. The Seadogs are not very good and they have sustained major injuries on both sides of the ball, I look for the team to really come undone over the next several weeks. The running game is almost non-existent and it would not surprise me if we saw more of Forsett at some point. Edge is toast and there is no reason to even roster him at this point.

Justin Forsett: Keep him on your radar. Hasn’t done a whole lot but he does have a 5.7 ypc avg on limited touches.

Let’s break down the drive charts.

1st drive: 3 n out, 1 carry for MB III

2nd drive: 6 plays, 1 carry for both MBIII and Felix

3rd drive: 8 plays resulting in a FG, 1 carry for Felix.

4th drive: 2 plays both to Felix and he fumbles on the 2nd carry, turned the ball over.

5th drive: Big pass play to Austin

6th drive: 11 plays, 2 minute warning for most of it, MBIII had 1 carry.

In the 2nd half Barber started, then Felix and Dallas scored a TD with him on the drive. Barber came back on the next drive and the Cowboys scored again, this time a FG. When it went inside 5 minutes Barber carried the ball to close the game out.

What does this tell us? Tashard Choice got basically nothing. Barber and Felix will be split a lot of drives or 1 on and 1 off it seems. If Dallas is ahead, barber will get more carries as they trust him to grind it out for the win.

MBIII: Should be good to go. See no reason not to start him although there are reports that he has a nagging wrist injury and has to wear a cast right now. Seattle is a terrible road team and I don’t see anyway they put up a fight.

Felix Jones: Interesting flex play but he does not gat enough touches.

Final Score: Dallas 31…Seattle 20

Oakland at San Diego (-17) (41.5)

DMac: Reports are all over the place but I did read where Cable said they were going to work with him more next week, which to me means he is not playing this week.

Justin Fargas: Not flashy, not sexy, but he gets touches and he has 10 and 12 points the past 2 weeks so he is a borderline RB2 in many leagues. With bye week issues you might as well play him. San Diego is coming off a blow out and is probably still fuming but Oakland can run the ball at times. Chargers rush defense is OK, and remember they have Jamal Williams out for the season too.

Michael Bush: Just doesn’t get enough touches.

L.Tomlinson: Has been running better, maybe he can feast on the Raiders this week but we keep waiting for him to snap out of this funk. Last season wasn’t this bad. 100 yds and 2 scores this week, he’s majorly due .

Darren Sproles: Did really well against a terrible defense last week, look for him to have some shots this week as well. He is no threat to take away carries form LT, but he can and is the guy they want to go to OOTB, look for him to be a likely double digit contributor this week.

Final Score: San Diego 35…Oakland 14

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3) (45)

Maurice Jones Drew: Lucky you that gets the luxury of playing this guy every week. The Titans have done well at shutting down the run until they gave up in NE. Hopefully they show a little backbone(can you tell I am not a MJD owner) and get back to where they were prior. But even if they shut him down in the running game, they are so awful against the pass that MJD will find a way to hurt them no matter what. Each season MJD has 1 good game and 1 pretty bad game against TN…they played a couple weeks ago , Drew put up 13 points, pretty average.

Chris Johnson: All or nothing with this guy it seems this season. Outside of the 55 he pasted up week 2 he is avg below 10 points a week all other weeks of the season. It’s going to be interesting to see if Vince Young helps or hinders the running game. Titans are a mess but they are coming out of the bye week, hopefully they realize that Johnson is about their best playmaker and get him in space if they can.

Final Score: Jacksonville 24…Tennessee 21

Carolina at Arizona (-10) (41)

DeAngelo Williams: Best thing for DWill owners will be either a change of scenery or a new HC for the Panthers. Whenever this guy really is handed the lead and fed the ball he typically responds with a huge performance. He is coming off 31 and 24 point performances so he is running top5-top10 the past 2 weeks. The Cards look pretty good against the run. Jacobs was held to about 70 last week and that is the most on the ground to any one back so far this season. I wouldn’t expect more than about 12-15 from DWill this weekend. The Panthers are not a good football team right now.

JStewart: Has only had more than 11 carries once this season. Not more than a flex option at best. He practiced fully Thursday so the injured hand he sustained last week seems to be a non factor.

Tim Hightower: Seems like Beanie Wells is getting more carries but Tim has totls of 25, 17, 11, 15, 15, and 10. He has less than 200 yds rushing for the season but he also has 31 receptions and 4 TDs including 3 games in a row. I believe you continue to start Hightower for now. Carolina is not a great run defense so the Cards may find some success on the ground this week.

Beanie Wells: Had 12 carries week6, 14 for 67 and a TD last week, 3 receptions to boot. Again, Wells makes a decent bye week or perhaps flex option in deeper leagues.

Final Score: Arizona 24…Carolina 17

NY Giants as Philly (Pk Em) (44)

Brandon Jacobs: Started to come out of it last week with 70 yds and a score. The Eagles have not allowed a single 100 yd rusher all season and they haven’t given up a rushing TD since week 2 against the Saints. Jacobs is going to be a tough start this week as will Bradshaw. Will it surprise anyone if they score? Probably not but they will have their work cut out for them. Jacobs has 1 good game against Philly in his whole career and that was in 2008 with 120 yds and 2 TDs, but outside of that he has been very quiet against Philly.

Brian Westbrook: I hope Philly does the right thing and sits him down another week. I believe Andy Reid will do what is right, he has never struck me a HC who forces his players out there if they are hurt or in danger.

LeSean McCoy: If he is named the starter you might have an option here. I am not the biggest McCoy fan to be honest and I haven’t seen anything yet that he has done that made me go WOW!!! Not saying he won’t or that he isn’t the future in Philly, but right now he seems just OK.

Final Score: Philly 23…NY Giants 20

Atlanta at New Orleans (-10) (54)

Michael Turner: While I was not big on him last week, I do believe he will be fine this week in a big showdown in the NFC South. The Falcons might need 40 points this week and while Ryan will pass a lot, they tend to bring it in the end zone from close range via the ground. Tirner should be good for at least 1-2 scores this week.

Pierre Thomas: Is the starter although Mike Bell really kicked the offense up a notch when he entered the game this past weekend. Until Bell takes the field with the 1st team on the 1st drive, I still believe Thomas is the better play most weeks. Bell should be on rosters in all leagues though because it seems pretty much anyone can be in the back field for right now for the Saints and that player whoever they are is likely to get some good stats.

Mike Bell: 27 carries the past 2 weeks but hasn’t turned a profit for owners, he is still a bench player IMO.

Reggie Bush: Thomas is avg over 5.5 ypc, the 3rd stringer is avg almost 5 ypc, and Bush is avg 3.9 ypc…so obvious this guy just can’t do it as a runner. He gets about 7-8 carries a week, but he only has 18 receptions this season…31 targets. He has back to back TDs the past 2 weeks and he still is almost unstartable except in TD only leagues.

Final Score: New Orleans 34…Atlanta 30

 
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Nice analysis, as usual. I do question whether Pierre Thomas is a better start than Mike Bell, considering that Bell seems to be the goal-line back. Frankly, they're both tough to start. The owner I'm playing this week is starting BOTH of them. I guess that's one way to try to solve the dilemma. :mellow:

 
Solid work as usual, MoP.

As an Addai owner, I think there's going to be a likelihood of over-use over the next 3 weeks due to Donald Brown's injury. That kid is the future, so the Colts will be cautious with him. But Lord knows, Addai isn't exactly the toughest guy around, though he is pretty much a lock for 14-16 points a week.

 
Thanks for the work, as always. A couple questions/comments...

You like Addai that much this week? I kind of liked him better sharing carries with Brown as weird as that sounds.

I really agree with your analysis of Kevin Smith. I couldn't wait for Culpepper to get out of there so he could get back to catching some passes.

DeAngelo really worries me this week. To expound upon Cardinals defense a bit - 3.0 ypc this year against them despite facing

Gore, MJD, Jacobs. I am seriously considering showing him the bench in favor of Beanie.

Chargers rush D is ok? Just a few weeks back everyone thought they were the leagues worst. We'll probably know for sure what they are made of after week 9 against the G-men.

 
LordHusker said:
Nice analysis, as usual. I do question whether Pierre Thomas is a better start than Mike Bell, considering that Bell seems to be the goal-line back. Frankly, they're both tough to start. The owner I'm playing this week is starting BOTH of them. I guess that's one way to try to solve the dilemma. :shrug:
Thomas was given chances to score the past couple weeks but could not capitilize. Mike Bell did not score last week either. Thanks for the kind words
 
great stuff....thanks for taking the time to do this.

I'm thinking of starting SJAX over Gore this week in PPR league.

By your analysis it looks like you would agree with this move. No?

 
LordHusker said:
Nice analysis, as usual. I do question whether Pierre Thomas is a better start than Mike Bell, considering that Bell seems to be the goal-line back. Frankly, they're both tough to start. The owner I'm playing this week is starting BOTH of them. I guess that's one way to try to solve the dilemma. :goodposting:
I'm not sure this is the case. In week 7, Bell got 2 goal-line carries, PT got 0. In week 6, PT got 4 (& one from the 11 yard line), while Bell got just 2. It seems like the Saints go with the "hot hand" not necessarily a "goal-line" back.
 
I LOVE "BORNOCS"

LOL!!!

great post!
may personal fave isRicky Williams:

"for me to tell you to sit him flys in the face of what he is doing"

:lmao:

and Chicago's rush defense is lousy, not sure why he's saying to toss out last week's drubbing by Cincy and in particular, Benson's performance.

:shrug:

 
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What are your thoughts on Snelling in the MNF game???

I am so desparate I am trying to decide between Snelling / Jamal Lewis / and Jerome Harrison as RB2 in a ppr league. I thought Mike Smiths comments on Snelling earning more touches was interesting... and I think the Saints v Falcons could be a high scoring game. I was thinking of starting Snelling as a high risk / high reward RB2.

ETA: I also noticed that Snelling did not practice Thursday and was like WTF??? I don't see him listed on any injury reports.

 
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Are you a McGahee owner or are you frustrated you missed out on Rice? What is it with you and mentioning losses with Rice? Do you think that the Ravens would have come back against the undefeated (at that time) Vikings with McGahee running the ball?

Seriously, you may want to look at the schedule. They won their first 3 against KC (1-6), SD (3-3) and Cleveland (1-6) and lost their last 3 against NE (5-2), Cincy (5-2) and Minnesota (6-1). They also only lost the last 3 by 11 points. So, could you get off the McGahee high horse and realize that the Ravens lost close games to teams that most teams lose to and that they probably would have lost by more if McGahee got more carries.

In those 3 games, Rice has 35 carries for 249 yards (7.1 ypc) and also has 22 receptions for 240 yards (10.9). McGahee has a whopping 1ypc (13 carries for 13 yards) in the same three games with 2 receptions for 17 yards. Could you tell me again, how McGahee would have helped them win the 3 games? Rice was excellent in 3 games against good defenses (2 top 10 rushing). Please stop mentioning something that is absurd to a message board that actually looks at more than the W-L column.

ETA: I do read this thread, so thanks for that, but I have seen that Rice = L comment from you in other threads and it makes no sense.

 
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I LOVE "BORNOCS"

LOL!!!

great post!
Thanks for your wonderful insight...we need more idiots valuable posters like you to add to our discussions of Fantasy Football.MoP...why do you like Grant again? Do you think GB gets ahead and that Minny has to focus a lot more on the pass? Is MIN's rush D just not what it used to be? They looked good against PIT...

ETA: spelling edit

 
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MoP,

Are you not concerned about LT's inability to punch his touches into the red zone last weekend? That o-line is looking terrible and with Turner and SJax as my other options I'll admit I'm a bit scared by San Diego's o-line. They're playing Oakland this weekend but had an easy matchup last weekend vs. KC.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Brandon Jacobs: Started to come out of it last week with 70 yds and a score. The Eagles have not allowed a single 100 yd rusher all season and they haven’t given up a rushing TD since week 2 against the Saints. Jacobs is going to be a tough start this week as will Bradshaw. Will it surprise anyone if they score? Probably not but they will have their work cut out for them.
the Eagles definitely have some good defensive numbers, but so far they've played some pretty bad offenses in Carolina, KC, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Washington. The Saints are the only top ten offense they've faced, and New Orleans rushed for 133 yards (4.6 avg) and 2 TDs.
Jacobs has 1 good game against Philly in his whole career and that was in 2008 with 120 yds and 2 TDs, but outside of that he has been very quiet against Philly.
He was rushing for 5 ypc against them (10 for 52) in their other meeting last year, but got hurt and didn't play the second half. He's only had one other game against the Eagles as a starter (2007 - 81 total yards) - I don't think there's much of a trend you can draw from 2.5 games.I think with Bradshaw continuing to deal with that foot injury, and the Giants being a much better offense than the Eagles are used to facing this year, Jacobs is a better play this week than what you're suggesting.

 
I LOVE "BORNOCS"

LOL!!!

great post!
Thanks for your wonderful insight...we need more idiots valuable posters like you to add to our discussions of Fantasy Football.MoP...why do you like Grant again? Do you think GB gets ahead and that Minny has to focus a lot more on the past? Is MIN's rush D just not what it used to be? They looked good against PIT...
If either team is focusing on the past, it is the Packers. :)
 
stbugs said:
Are you a McGahee owner or are you frustrated you missed out on Rice? What is it with you and mentioning losses with Rice? Do you think that the Ravens would have come back against the undefeated (at that time) Vikings with McGahee running the ball?

No Just posting it out there...its just an observation, nothing more.

Seriously, you may want to look at the schedule. They won their first 3 against KC (1-6), SD (3-3) and Cleveland (1-6) and lost their last 3 against NE (5-2), Cincy (5-2) and Minnesota (6-1). They also only lost the last 3 by 11 points. So, could you get off the McGahee high horse and realize that the Ravens lost close games to teams that most teams lose to and that they probably would have lost by more if McGahee got more carries.

In those 3 games, Rice has 35 carries for 249 yards (7.1 ypc) and also has 22 receptions for 240 yards (10.9). McGahee has a whopping 1ypc (13 carries for 13 yards) in the same three games with 2 receptions for 17 yards. Could you tell me again, how McGahee would have helped them win the 3 games? Rice was excellent in 3 games against good defenses (2 top 10 rushing). Please stop mentioning something that is absurd to a message board that actually looks at more than the W-L column.

ETA: I do read this thread, so thanks for that, but I have seen that Rice = L comment from you in other threads and it makes no sense.
You sound like me a year ago, don't take it so personally bro, good luck this weekend.I have questions but I think it might be best to let you be this week.

 
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Instinctive said:
I LOVE "BORNOCS"

LOL!!!

great post!
Thanks for your wonderful insight...we need more idiots valuable posters like you to add to our discussions of Fantasy Football.MoP...why do you like Grant again? Do you think GB gets ahead and that Minny has to focus a lot more on the past? Is MIN's rush D just not what it used to be? They looked good against PIT...
He's just been very consistent in the 12-15 range, had a big game last week which is probably his ceiling. He's a very safe play most weeks.
 
Knobs said:
MoP,Are you not concerned about LT's inability to punch his touches into the red zone last weekend? That o-line is looking terrible and with Turner and SJax as my other options I'll admit I'm a bit scared by San Diego's o-line. They're playing Oakland this weekend but had an easy matchup last weekend vs. KC.
100 yds and 2 TDs :( I have that Otis feeling
 
Possum said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Brandon Jacobs: Started to come out of it last week with 70 yds and a score. The Eagles have not allowed a single 100 yd rusher all season and they haven’t given up a rushing TD since week 2 against the Saints. Jacobs is going to be a tough start this week as will Bradshaw. Will it surprise anyone if they score? Probably not but they will have their work cut out for them.
the Eagles definitely have some good defensive numbers, but so far they've played some pretty bad offenses in Carolina, KC, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Washington. The Saints are the only top ten offense they've faced, and New Orleans rushed for 133 yards (4.6 avg) and 2 TDs.
Jacobs has 1 good game against Philly in his whole career and that was in 2008 with 120 yds and 2 TDs, but outside of that he has been very quiet against Philly.
He was rushing for 5 ypc against them (10 for 52) in their other meeting last year, but got hurt and didn't play the second half. He's only had one other game against the Eagles as a starter (2007 - 81 total yards) - I don't think there's much of a trend you can draw from 2.5 games.I think with Bradshaw continuing to deal with that foot injury, and the Giants being a much better offense than the Eagles are used to facing this year, Jacobs is a better play this week than what you're suggesting.
Great points, don't be a stranger round here.
 
From CBS

Sit of the Week

Frank Gore is not having a good season. He has not played like a top 10 Fantasy running back this year.

Sure, Gore had one big game in Week 2 against Seattle with 16 carries for 207 yards and two touchdowns. He also scored two touchdowns in Week 1 at Arizona.

But if you look closer at his production, Gore has struggled. And let's not forget that he missed two games and the majority of a third with an ankle injury, which could still be bothering him.

Against the Seahawks, Gore scored on a 79-yard run and an 80-yard run. Take away those carries, and he had 14 carries for 48 yards, which is 3.4 yards per carry. That's more in line with how he's run all season.

He averaged 1.4 yards per carry against the Cardinals and 2.5 yards per carry against Houston last week in his first game back from the injury. Along with that, the 49ers have injuries on the offensive line with right tackle Tony Pashos (shoulder) going on injured reserve.

This week, Gore could be limited again, so consider putting him on your bench. The Colts won't allow Gore to beat them.

Indianapolis hasn't been dominant against the run as Ronnie Brown (136 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 2) and Steven Jackson (134 rushing yards in Week 7) can attest, but they haven't allowed a rushing touchdown since the Dolphins game. And with Bob Sanders back, the run defense should continue to improve.

Let's also keep in mind that if the Colts build a big lead as expected, that should negate Gore and the running game. And he wasn't much of a factor as a receiver out of the backfield in last week's comeback attempt at Houston with only two catches for 15 yards.

Gore should rebound once the offensive line improves and when he has an easier matchup, but this should be a tough week for him. Keep Gore reserved in all leagues.

Why is Gore not getting any love? He is one of the best backs in the league. Sure, last week wasn't great, but they were playing catch up. Singletary knows he can't get into shootouts like he did (accidentally) last week. He knows that he needs to run,run, run & Frank Gore is the only way they can win. I expect a heavy dose of Frank Gore this week with a TD or two.

Looking at SF/Gore last few games

Gore vs Min. One play and out of the game. Niners L

The next week out w/ injury. (Rams) Niners W

The next week BYE.

The next week vs. HOU. --Game out of hand early and Niners screwed. No action for Gore. Niners L

The first few weeks of SF/Gore season...

vs AZ (a good run D) 22 carries for 30 yds 2 TD's 15fantasy points Niners W

vs SEA 16 carries 200+yds 2 TDs 55 fantasy points (in my league) Niners W

I have to think they will feed their best player the ball as many times as possible & control the clock. With the added passing option from Alex Smith, I think Gore is a must start this week (RB2/borderline RB1)

What irritates the crap out of me is CBS Sportsline calling him their sit of the week. Good thing they are usually wrong!!

 
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From CBS

Against the Seahawks, Gore scored on a 79-yard run and an 80-yard run. Take away those carries, and he had 14 carries for 48 yards, which is 3.4 yards per carry. That's more in line with how he's run all season.
Absurd.
 
I don't like Turner at all this week, although you've probably got to start him if you've got him. Outside of Miami's trickery, the Saints have only given up 3 rushing TD's to a RB in 5 games. Turner will be lucky to get 15 carries with Atlanta playing catch-up and the Falcons working Snelling in more.

 
Instinctive said:
I LOVE "BORNOCS"

LOL!!!

great post!
Thanks for your wonderful insight...we need more idiots valuable posters like you to add to our discussions of Fantasy Football.MoP...why do you like Grant again? Do you think GB gets ahead and that Minny has to focus a lot more on the past? Is MIN's rush D just not what it used to be? They looked good against PIT...
If either team is focusing on the past, it is the Packers. :popcorn:
Oops. I always say I'm a terrible typist...should read "pass"
 
Instinctive said:
I LOVE "BORNOCS"

LOL!!!

great post!
Thanks for your wonderful insight...we need more idiots valuable posters like you to add to our discussions of Fantasy Football.MoP...why do you like Grant again? Do you think GB gets ahead and that Minny has to focus a lot more on the past? Is MIN's rush D just not what it used to be? They looked good against PIT...
He's just been very consistent in the 12-15 range, had a big game last week which is probably his ceiling. He's a very safe play most weeks.
I totally agree that he's safe. Love having an RB2 that gets all the carries and catches, and a good chance of a TD. Would you play him over Bradshaw then? I see him as a guy who'll get less touches, but doesn't Bradshaw have a much better chance to produce against PHI than Grant against MIN?
 
stbugs said:
Are you a McGahee owner or are you frustrated you missed out on Rice? What is it with you and mentioning losses with Rice? Do you think that the Ravens would have come back against the undefeated (at that time) Vikings with McGahee running the ball?

No Just posting it out there...its just an observation, nothing more.

Seriously, you may want to look at the schedule. They won their first 3 against KC (1-6), SD (3-3) and Cleveland (1-6) and lost their last 3 against NE (5-2), Cincy (5-2) and Minnesota (6-1). They also only lost the last 3 by 11 points. So, could you get off the McGahee high horse and realize that the Ravens lost close games to teams that most teams lose to and that they probably would have lost by more if McGahee got more carries.

In those 3 games, Rice has 35 carries for 249 yards (7.1 ypc) and also has 22 receptions for 240 yards (10.9). McGahee has a whopping 1ypc (13 carries for 13 yards) in the same three games with 2 receptions for 17 yards. Could you tell me again, how McGahee would have helped them win the 3 games? Rice was excellent in 3 games against good defenses (2 top 10 rushing). Please stop mentioning something that is absurd to a message board that actually looks at more than the W-L column.

ETA: I do read this thread, so thanks for that, but I have seen that Rice = L comment from you in other threads and it makes no sense.
You sound like me a year ago, don't take it so personally bro, good luck this weekend.I have questions but I think it might be best to let you be this week.
What a weak, condescending reply. Didn't want to address the question/scrutiny, lol.
 
LordHusker said:
Nice analysis, as usual. I do question whether Pierre Thomas is a better start than Mike Bell, considering that Bell seems to be the goal-line back. Frankly, they're both tough to start. The owner I'm playing this week is starting BOTH of them. I guess that's one way to try to solve the dilemma. :popcorn:
I'm not sure this is the case. In week 7, Bell got 2 goal-line carries, PT got 0. In week 6, PT got 4 (& one from the 11 yard line), while Bell got just 2. It seems like the Saints go with the "hot hand" not necessarily a "goal-line" back.
Right.You can expect any Saints back to get the ball at the goal line. Even Heath Evans before he got hurt.

Bell and PT are more dependant on the game situation, Bell coming in for PT to crush a tired defense, so it's more a question of when they get their opportunities not where.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Ray Rice: 17, 20, 27, 41…that is what Ray Rice has done the past 4 games. As his totals rise the losses have mounted for the Ravens. Pure coincidence I assume but just something to track. Seriously though, Rice is paying off big time for those that invested a 4th or 5th for him in drafts. The Bornocs have not allowed any back to rush for 100 yds but Rice has only topped that mark by a couple yds twice this season. What he excels at is receptions and Denver has allowed 6 to Cin, 5 to Cle, 8 to Oak, 8 to Dal, 5 to NE, 6 to SD…Rice should be good for at least 5-6 receptions if Baltimore wants to try and exploit that. Top10 numbers might be hard for Rice this week but then again he is quickly becoming a regular even against better teams.
I really cannot bring myself to bench Rice, but how good is Denver's defense? It sure looks good to me, so I'm a little worried.Or was - nice bit on the RB receptions vs Denver because I am in a 0.5 PPR league.

 
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I don't like Turner at all this week, although you've probably got to start him if you've got him. Outside of Miami's trickery, the Saints have only given up 3 rushing TD's to a RB in 5 games. Turner will be lucky to get 15 carries with Atlanta playing catch-up and the Falcons working Snelling in more.
Injured. Not sure how much of a factor he is going to be.
 
stbugs said:
Are you a McGahee owner or are you frustrated you missed out on Rice? What is it with you and mentioning losses with Rice? Do you think that the Ravens would have come back against the undefeated (at that time) Vikings with McGahee running the ball?

No Just posting it out there...its just an observation, nothing more.

Seriously, you may want to look at the schedule. They won their first 3 against KC (1-6), SD (3-3) and Cleveland (1-6) and lost their last 3 against NE (5-2), Cincy (5-2) and Minnesota (6-1). They also only lost the last 3 by 11 points. So, could you get off the McGahee high horse and realize that the Ravens lost close games to teams that most teams lose to and that they probably would have lost by more if McGahee got more carries.

In those 3 games, Rice has 35 carries for 249 yards (7.1 ypc) and also has 22 receptions for 240 yards (10.9). McGahee has a whopping 1ypc (13 carries for 13 yards) in the same three games with 2 receptions for 17 yards. Could you tell me again, how McGahee would have helped them win the 3 games? Rice was excellent in 3 games against good defenses (2 top 10 rushing). Please stop mentioning something that is absurd to a message board that actually looks at more than the W-L column.

ETA: I do read this thread, so thanks for that, but I have seen that Rice = L comment from you in other threads and it makes no sense.
You sound like me a year ago, don't take it so personally bro, good luck this weekend.I have questions but I think it might be best to let you be this week.
What a weak, condescending reply. Didn't want to address the question/scrutiny, lol.
It's OK, I probably did sound more angry than I was. I just don't get why MOP has said it in multiple threads. Whether you look at the fact that Baltimore's schedule was easy then hard or the fact that Rice has actually helped them almost win the tougher games, it is so easy to see that Rice = L is absurd. Either he is fishing, in his own thread no less, or he doesn't realize he harbors some sort of sub-conscious grudge. I am assuming he has looked into the details because he obviously puts thought into this thread.
 
From CBS

Sit of the Week

Frank Gore is not having a good season. He has not played like a top 10 Fantasy running back this year.

Sure, Gore had one big game in Week 2 against Seattle with 16 carries for 207 yards and two touchdowns. He also scored two touchdowns in Week 1 at Arizona.

But if you look closer at his production, Gore has struggled. And let's not forget that he missed two games and the majority of a third with an ankle injury, which could still be bothering him.

Against the Seahawks, Gore scored on a 79-yard run and an 80-yard run. Take away those carries, and he had 14 carries for 48 yards, which is 3.4 yards per carry. That's more in line with how he's run all season.

He averaged 1.4 yards per carry against the Cardinals and 2.5 yards per carry against Houston last week in his first game back from the injury. Along with that, the 49ers have injuries on the offensive line with right tackle Tony Pashos (shoulder) going on injured reserve.

This week, Gore could be limited again, so consider putting him on your bench. The Colts won't allow Gore to beat them.

Indianapolis hasn't been dominant against the run as Ronnie Brown (136 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 2) and Steven Jackson (134 rushing yards in Week 7) can attest, but they haven't allowed a rushing touchdown since the Dolphins game. And with Bob Sanders back, the run defense should continue to improve.

Let's also keep in mind that if the Colts build a big lead as expected, that should negate Gore and the running game. And he wasn't much of a factor as a receiver out of the backfield in last week's comeback attempt at Houston with only two catches for 15 yards.

Gore should rebound once the offensive line improves and when he has an easier matchup, but this should be a tough week for him. Keep Gore reserved in all leagues.

Why is Gore not getting any love? He is one of the best backs in the league. Sure, last week wasn't great, but they were playing catch up. Singletary knows he can't get into shootouts like he did (accidentally) last week. He knows that he needs to run,run, run & Frank Gore is the only way they can win. I expect a heavy dose of Frank Gore this week with a TD or two.

Looking at SF/Gore last few games

Gore vs Min. One play and out of the game. Niners L

The next week out w/ injury. (Rams) Niners W

The next week BYE.

The next week vs. HOU. --Game out of hand early and Niners screwed. No action for Gore. Niners L

The first few weeks of SF/Gore season...

vs AZ (a good run D) 22 carries for 30 yds 2 TD's 15fantasy points Niners W

vs SEA 16 carries 200+yds 2 TDs 55 fantasy points (in my league) Niners W

I have to think they will feed their best player the ball as many times as possible & control the clock. With the added passing option from Alex Smith, I think Gore is a must start this week (RB2/borderline RB1)

What irritates the crap out of me is CBS Sportsline calling him their sit of the week. Good thing they are usually wrong!!
While CBS is laughable, I am also benching Gore this week, and yes, before I read this CBS thing. If Houston can light up the SF pass D, what will Manning and company do? The Colts are built to put up points early, get a lead and use Mathis and Freeney to cause havoc. That more than having a good run defense is why Indy's run D looks so good on paper.

Next is the SF O line. It isn't very good right now. I expect the Colts to grab an early 14 point lead, and look for Gore to get limited touches.

CBS does make two good points. Gore was a non-factor in the failed comeback against Houston. Smith LOVES Vernon Davis. Unless Singletary installs specific passing plays, screens and whatnot designed for Gore... Davis will get Smith's attention just like he did last week. The other is that Gore may still be less than 100%. Gore is explosive when healthy. Is he really healthy? When he has big fantasy weeks, there is always a big play or two in there. He is not a grind it out guy, but has to get his touches to break one. (which is another knock on CBS... Gore is a big play RB, but they want to forget his big plays? OK, right)

I'm gonna roll with R Brown and Rice over Gore. I know the Rice matchup is not a favorable one, but I think he's a safer bet this week despite the Broncos D. (Actually, I am starting a WR over Gore as my flex- Wayne-Hester-S Rice or SS NYG)

Some have said they are nervous about RB and RR... I am more nervous about Gore.

 
stbugs said:
Are you a McGahee owner or are you frustrated you missed out on Rice? What is it with you and mentioning losses with Rice? Do you think that the Ravens would have come back against the undefeated (at that time) Vikings with McGahee running the ball?

No Just posting it out there...its just an observation, nothing more.

Seriously, you may want to look at the schedule. They won their first 3 against KC (1-6), SD (3-3) and Cleveland (1-6) and lost their last 3 against NE (5-2), Cincy (5-2) and Minnesota (6-1). They also only lost the last 3 by 11 points. So, could you get off the McGahee high horse and realize that the Ravens lost close games to teams that most teams lose to and that they probably would have lost by more if McGahee got more carries.

In those 3 games, Rice has 35 carries for 249 yards (7.1 ypc) and also has 22 receptions for 240 yards (10.9). McGahee has a whopping 1ypc (13 carries for 13 yards) in the same three games with 2 receptions for 17 yards. Could you tell me again, how McGahee would have helped them win the 3 games? Rice was excellent in 3 games against good defenses (2 top 10 rushing). Please stop mentioning something that is absurd to a message board that actually looks at more than the W-L column.

ETA: I do read this thread, so thanks for that, but I have seen that Rice = L comment from you in other threads and it makes no sense.
You sound like me a year ago, don't take it so personally bro, good luck this weekend.I have questions but I think it might be best to let you be this week.
What a weak, condescending reply. Didn't want to address the question/scrutiny, lol.
It's OK, I probably did sound more angry than I was. I just don't get why MOP has said it in multiple threads. Whether you look at the fact that Baltimore's schedule was easy then hard or the fact that Rice has actually helped them almost win the tougher games, it is so easy to see that Rice = L is absurd. Either he is fishing, in his own thread no less, or he doesn't realize he harbors some sort of sub-conscious grudge. I am assuming he has looked into the details because he obviously puts thought into this thread.
I was talking about MoP, not you.
 
stbugs said:
Are you a McGahee owner or are you frustrated you missed out on Rice? What is it with you and mentioning losses with Rice? Do you think that the Ravens would have come back against the undefeated (at that time) Vikings with McGahee running the ball?

No Just posting it out there...its just an observation, nothing more.

Seriously, you may want to look at the schedule. They won their first 3 against KC (1-6), SD (3-3) and Cleveland (1-6) and lost their last 3 against NE (5-2), Cincy (5-2) and Minnesota (6-1). They also only lost the last 3 by 11 points. So, could you get off the McGahee high horse and realize that the Ravens lost close games to teams that most teams lose to and that they probably would have lost by more if McGahee got more carries.

In those 3 games, Rice has 35 carries for 249 yards (7.1 ypc) and also has 22 receptions for 240 yards (10.9). McGahee has a whopping 1ypc (13 carries for 13 yards) in the same three games with 2 receptions for 17 yards. Could you tell me again, how McGahee would have helped them win the 3 games? Rice was excellent in 3 games against good defenses (2 top 10 rushing). Please stop mentioning something that is absurd to a message board that actually looks at more than the W-L column.

ETA: I do read this thread, so thanks for that, but I have seen that Rice = L comment from you in other threads and it makes no sense.
You sound like me a year ago, don't take it so personally bro, good luck this weekend.I have questions but I think it might be best to let you be this week.
What a weak, condescending reply. Didn't want to address the question/scrutiny, lol.
It's OK, I probably did sound more angry than I was. I just don't get why MOP has said it in multiple threads. Whether you look at the fact that Baltimore's schedule was easy then hard or the fact that Rice has actually helped them almost win the tougher games, it is so easy to see that Rice = L is absurd. Either he is fishing, in his own thread no less, or he doesn't realize he harbors some sort of sub-conscious grudge. I am assuming he has looked into the details because he obviously puts thought into this thread.
What part of "pure coincidence" that I put in the OP was missed?
 
Nice job on the Dallas 3 headed monster-I agree with your comments.
ty, drive charts can help or hinder depending on how you use them.
Yup, I hear you.For the part most people misunderstand that Choice is the 3rd down back and is Barber's backup (Not Felix's) nothing more. He will not get much action unless Barber is out for a while. He should be on waiver's unless you can afford the luxury of his potential if Barber were to go down.As well, gauging Felix and what his role will be has been tough based on his health so far this year. I am personally a big fan of Felix and his potential. Understand though that this is absolutely a work in progress. I do expect when all parts are healthy that Felix will be taking a larger %'s of the team carries.Barber does not have exclusive rights to GL carries, but should the vast majority of them. I do expect the Cowboys to run an awful lot this week against the beat up interior line for Seattle. The Cowboys will likely have a very conservative approach to this game and they don't want to give Philly any more game tape on any new wrinkles in the offense. I think Barber and Felix are decent to good starts this week. Cowboys win big.35-17
 
From CBS

Sit of the Week

Frank Gore is not having a good season. He has not played like a top 10 Fantasy running back this year.

Sure, Gore had one big game in Week 2 against Seattle with 16 carries for 207 yards and two touchdowns. He also scored two touchdowns in Week 1 at Arizona.

But if you look closer at his production, Gore has struggled. And let's not forget that he missed two games and the majority of a third with an ankle injury, which could still be bothering him.

Against the Seahawks, Gore scored on a 79-yard run and an 80-yard run. Take away those carries, and he had 14 carries for 48 yards, which is 3.4 yards per carry. That's more in line with how he's run all season.

He averaged 1.4 yards per carry against the Cardinals and 2.5 yards per carry against Houston last week in his first game back from the injury. Along with that, the 49ers have injuries on the offensive line with right tackle Tony Pashos (shoulder) going on injured reserve.

This week, Gore could be limited again, so consider putting him on your bench. The Colts won't allow Gore to beat them.

Indianapolis hasn't been dominant against the run as Ronnie Brown (136 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 2) and Steven Jackson (134 rushing yards in Week 7) can attest, but they haven't allowed a rushing touchdown since the Dolphins game. And with Bob Sanders back, the run defense should continue to improve.

Let's also keep in mind that if the Colts build a big lead as expected, that should negate Gore and the running game. And he wasn't much of a factor as a receiver out of the backfield in last week's comeback attempt at Houston with only two catches for 15 yards.

Gore should rebound once the offensive line improves and when he has an easier matchup, but this should be a tough week for him. Keep Gore reserved in all leagues.

Why is Gore not getting any love? He is one of the best backs in the league. Sure, last week wasn't great, but they were playing catch up. Singletary knows he can't get into shootouts like he did (accidentally) last week. He knows that he needs to run,run, run & Frank Gore is the only way they can win. I expect a heavy dose of Frank Gore this week with a TD or two.

Looking at SF/Gore last few games

Gore vs Min. One play and out of the game. Niners L

The next week out w/ injury. (Rams) Niners W

The next week BYE.

The next week vs. HOU. --Game out of hand early and Niners screwed. No action for Gore. Niners L

The first few weeks of SF/Gore season...

vs AZ (a good run D) 22 carries for 30 yds 2 TD's 15fantasy points Niners W

vs SEA 16 carries 200+yds 2 TDs 55 fantasy points (in my league) Niners W

I have to think they will feed their best player the ball as many times as possible & control the clock. With the added passing option from Alex Smith, I think Gore is a must start this week (RB2/borderline RB1)

What irritates the crap out of me is CBS Sportsline calling him their sit of the week. Good thing they are usually wrong!!
While CBS is laughable, I am also benching Gore this week, and yes, before I read this CBS thing. If Houston can light up the SF pass D, what will Manning and company do? The Colts are built to put up points early, get a lead and use Mathis and Freeney to cause havoc. That more than having a good run defense is why Indy's run D looks so good on paper.

Next is the SF O line. It isn't very good right now. I expect the Colts to grab an early 14 point lead, and look for Gore to get limited touches.

CBS does make two good points. Gore was a non-factor in the failed comeback against Houston. Smith LOVES Vernon Davis. Unless Singletary installs specific passing plays, screens and whatnot designed for Gore... Davis will get Smith's attention just like he did last week. The other is that Gore may still be less than 100%. Gore is explosive when healthy. Is he really healthy? When he has big fantasy weeks, there is always a big play or two in there. He is not a grind it out guy, but has to get his touches to break one. (which is another knock on CBS... Gore is a big play RB, but they want to forget his big plays? OK, right)

I'm gonna roll with R Brown and Rice over Gore. I know the Rice matchup is not a favorable one, but I think he's a safer bet this week despite the Broncos D. (Actually, I am starting a WR over Gore as my flex- Wayne-Hester-S Rice or SS NYG)

Some have said they are nervous about RB and RR... I am more nervous about Gore.
Most people don't have the luxury of a Ray Rice replacement, and he is very involved in the passing game so even if they fall behind he will still get yards. Frank Gore has too much talent to sit on most people's bench no matter who he is playing. Singletary is from Chicago and the days of Walter Payton. Run, run, run, play solid defense control the clock. He will get back to that this week. I won't be benching one of the best players in the league. For CBS to suggest this, they are saying he will be outperformed by scrubs. Last week they said to bench Romo. Frank Gore is a stud, and I always play my studs.
 
You sound like me a year ago, don't take it so personally bro, good luck this weekend.I have questions but I think it might be best to let you be this week.
What a weak, condescending reply. Didn't want to address the question/scrutiny, lol.
It's OK, I probably did sound more angry than I was. I just don't get why MOP has said it in multiple threads. Whether you look at the fact that Baltimore's schedule was easy then hard or the fact that Rice has actually helped them almost win the tougher games, it is so easy to see that Rice = L is absurd. Either he is fishing, in his own thread no less, or he doesn't realize he harbors some sort of sub-conscious grudge. I am assuming he has looked into the details because he obviously puts thought into this thread.
What part of "pure coincidence" that I put in the OP was missed?
Don't take it so personally. :lmao: I just still don't understand why you even threw it in there. You said it in at least one other thread so you keep thinking about it and it makes your analysis weaker IMHO. As SLBD said, you ignored any analysis and just added that tidbit, which is one of the worst cause and effect arguments I have ever read on this board.
 
Thanks for adding the color coding, it makes scanning for players of interest a LOT easier.

And thanks for the effort each week. :wall:

 
Ray Rice: 17, 20, 27, 41…that is what Ray Rice has done the past 4 games. As his totals rise the losses have mounted for the Ravens. Pure coincidence I assume but just something to track. Seriously though, Rice is paying off big time for those that invested a 4th or 5th for him in drafts. The Bornocs have not allowed any back to rush for 100 yds but Rice has only topped that mark by a couple yds twice this season. What he excels at is receptions and Denver has allowed 6 to Cin, 5 to Cle, 8 to Oak, 8 to Dal, 5 to NE, 6 to SD…Rice should be good for at least 5-6 receptions if Baltimore wants to try and exploit that. Top10 numbers might be hard for Rice this week but then again he is quickly becoming a regular even against better teams.
I really cannot bring myself to bench Rice, but how good is Denver's defense? It sure looks good to me, so I'm a little worried.Or was - nice bit on the RB receptions vs Denver because I am in a 0.5 PPR league.
see bolded above.....and the answer is that we really don't know - Look at the teams where they built those stats:Week 1 - Cincinnati - Bengals offense not yet in gear

Week 2 - Cleveland - Browns wouldn't score much vs good college teams

Week 3 - Oakland - another disfunctional team

Week 4 - Dallas - (in Denver) before Romo, Austin and running game untracked

Week 5 - New England - (in Denver) Brady was just over 50% and Orton torched the Pats secondary in comeback win

Week 6 - San Diego - gave up 23 points including 70 yards to LT and 275 to Rivers

 
The Saints have been pretty good against the run this year although it took them some time to figure out how to stop the wild cat in the last game. I think the Saints are solid on the defensive line and the #1 draft picks Charles Grant, Will Smith and Sedrick Ellis are starting to play like it which frees up Johnathan Vilma to tee off on the run. One concern is Eliis and the knee sprain. If he is out then that makes things a little different for the Atlanta run game. I see the Monday night game as being a shoot out. The Saints will get out to their trade mark early lead and Atlanta will lean much more on Matt Ryan, Roddy White , and Tony Gonzalas to try to keep pace on the score board. If you own any saints WR's in this game you better start them. Brees was electric the last time these two teams played on Monday night.

 
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