RB's who were Top 5 Picks over the Last 30 Years (1 Viewer)

[Gerg73]

Okay, I went back averaged out the Season for a Running Back who was a Top 5 Pick and what he did his Rookie Season.

This covers 30 Years.

Here's the List of Players and where they were Drafted:

2005 2 Ronnie Brown Dolphins

4 Cedric Benson Bears

5 Cadillac Williams Buccaneers

2001 5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers

2000 5 Jamal Lewis Ravens

1999 4 Edgerrin James Colts

5 Ricky Williams Saints

1998 5 Curtis Enis Bears

1995 1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals

1994 2 Marshall Faulk Colts

1993 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals

1990 2 Blair Thomas Jets

1989 3 Barry Sanders Lions

1987 3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers

4 Brent Fullwood Packers

1986 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers

1983 2 Eric Dickerson Rams

3 Curt Warner Seahawks

1981 1 George Rogers Saints

3 Freeman McNeil Jets

1980 1 Billy Sims Lions

5 Curtis Dickey Colts

1978 1 Earl Campbell Oilers

5 Terry Miller Bills

1977 1 Ricky Bell Buccaneers

2 Tony Dorsett Cowboys

In a List filled with HOF'ers and some Perrennial All-Pro's, there are obviously some busts included. In particular the '87 Draft which REALLY killed the averages for Rb's drafted in the Top 5.

All Players in BOLD Had at least 1,100 Yards Rushing or 7-13 Td's!

But the AVERAGE Numbers for a RB drafted in the Top 5 is VERY IMPRESSIVE.

Here they are:

Carries - 220

Yards - 951

TD's - 7

Rec - 26

Rec. Yds - 221

TD's - 1

Would 1,172 Yards and 8 Td's be a good numbers from your RB#2?

It's Debatable, depending where you drafted him. If you got him in the 3rd round and drafted a STUD #1 WR in the 2nd round, then it's pretty good.

But AGAIN, I point out that the list above has 8 RB's who Never played in 10 games or had 130+ carries.

There are many reason for it; Holdouts, (Benson, Hearst) Injuries, (Enis, Carter, Thomas) or they just sucked (Fullwood, Highsmith).

But if you're looking into Drafting a Top 5 Rb pick this year (Bush being the only 1), then you OBVIOUSLY think he DOESN'T SUCK.

So, we can take out the factors of Fullwood and Highsmith.

We know he won't holdout, so take out Hearst and Benson.

Which leaves us with the Injury question. Which we all know is almost IMPOSSIBLE to predict.

If you think Bush will get injured and play less than 10 games, or will not warrant 130+ Carries, then stay with the averages above or better yet...DON'T DRAFT HIM!

But if you think he'll stay realatively Healthy and play 10+ games and recieve 130+ Carries, here's the AVERAGE of what the Top 5 Picks at RB have done.

This is taking out the 8 Rb's from the list above who didn't play 10 games or get 130+ carries.

Here they are:

Carries - 280

Yards - 1,227

TD's - 10

Rec - 33

Rec. Yds - 287

TD's - 1

I don't know about you, but I'M IMPRESSED. Those are Solid RB #1 Numbers!

 

[Gerg73]

Nobody Cares!

 

[Bojang0301]

Nobody Cares!

Sorry dude, it's been gone through several times this offseason. Thats why this should be my FFA time but I'm drunk and got lost.

 

[thecardiackid]

Nobody Cares!

Here's the problem w/ your theory (albeit interesting and well prepared)<paste> It's debatable, depending where you drafted him. If you got him in the 3rd round and drafted a STUD #1 WR in the 2nd round, then it's pretty good. </paste>

The Bush hype has him going in R2 in most cases (unless you're in a 8 team league - but even there I'd bet he goes R2). Therefore the risk/reward is compounded. I'm sure most of us would be fine (or thrilled) w/ those #s, but how many of these guys you mentioned were splitting time w/ someone like Duce out of the gate? If he was the undisputed #1 in NO, now that's a different story.

 

[The Jerk]

Nobody Cares!

Here's the problem w/ your theory (albeit interesting and well prepared)<paste> It's debatable, depending where you drafted him. If you got him in the 3rd round and drafted a STUD #1 WR in the 2nd round, then it's pretty good. </paste>

The Bush hype has him going in R2 in most cases (unless you're in a 8 team league - but even there I'd bet he goes R2). Therefore the risk/reward is compounded. I'm sure most of us would be fine (or thrilled) w/ those #s, but how many of these guys you mentioned were splitting time w/ someone like Duce out of the gate? If he was the undisputed #1 in NO, now that's a different story.

Another problem is that while it's nice that historically the numbers are good for top 5 picks, that doesn't guarantee that the individual player you select in any given year will hit the historical average.It's as simple as looking at the year James and Williams came into the league. Edge was outstanding. Ricky not so much.

 

[SSOG]

Okay, I went back averaged out the Season for a Running Back who was a Top 5 Pick and what he did his Rookie Season.

This covers 30 Years.

Here's the List of Players and where they were Drafted:

2005 2 Ronnie Brown Dolphins

4 Cedric Benson Bears

5 Cadillac Williams Buccaneers

2001 5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers

2000 5 Jamal Lewis Ravens

1999 4 Edgerrin James Colts

5 Ricky Williams Saints

1998 5 Curtis Enis Bears

1995 1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals

1994 2 Marshall Faulk Colts

1993 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals

1990 2 Blair Thomas Jets

1989 3 Barry Sanders Lions

1987 3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers

4 Brent Fullwood Packers

1986 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers

1983 2 Eric Dickerson Rams

3 Curt Warner Seahawks

1981 1 George Rogers Saints

3 Freeman McNeil Jets

1980 1 Billy Sims Lions

5 Curtis Dickey Colts

1978 1 Earl Campbell Oilers

5 Terry Miller Bills

1977 1 Ricky Bell Buccaneers

2 Tony Dorsett Cowboys

In a List filled with HOF'ers and some Perrennial All-Pro's, there are obviously some busts included. In particular the '87 Draft which REALLY killed the averages for Rb's drafted in the Top 5.

All Players in BOLD Had at least 1,100 Yards Rushing or 7-13 Td's!

But the AVERAGE Numbers for a RB drafted in the Top 5 is VERY IMPRESSIVE.

Here they are:

Carries - 220

Yards - 951

TD's - 7

Rec - 26

Rec. Yds - 221

TD's - 1

Would 1,172 Yards and 8 Td's be a good numbers from your RB#2?

It's Debatable, depending where you drafted him. If you got him in the 3rd round and drafted a STUD #1 WR in the 2nd round, then it's pretty good.

But AGAIN, I point out that the list above has 8 RB's who Never played in 10 games or had 130+ carries.

There are many reason for it; Holdouts, (Benson, Hearst) Injuries, (Enis, Carter, Thomas) or they just sucked (Fullwood, Highsmith).

But if you're looking into Drafting a Top 5 Rb pick this year (Bush being the only 1), then you OBVIOUSLY think he DOESN'T SUCK.

So, we can take out the factors of Fullwood and Highsmith.

We know he won't holdout, so take out Hearst and Benson.

Which leaves us with the Injury question. Which we all know is almost IMPOSSIBLE to predict.

If you think Bush will get injured and play less than 10 games, or will not warrant 130+ Carries, then stay with the averages above or better yet...DON'T DRAFT HIM!

But if you think he'll stay realatively Healthy and play 10+ games and recieve 130+ Carries, here's the AVERAGE of what the Top 5 Picks at RB have done.

This is taking out the 8 Rb's from the list above who didn't play 10 games or get 130+ carries.

Here they are:

Carries - 280

Yards - 1,227

TD's - 10

Rec - 33

Rec. Yds - 287

TD's - 1

I don't know about you, but I'M IMPRESSED. Those are Solid RB #1 Numbers!

You've obviously ignored all of my critiques from the other thread, so let's bring them over here.First off, you mention the 10 game/130 carry cutoff, but you didn't stick to it. Curtis Enis had 133 carries as a rookie, and should be included in the list. Brent Fullwood played in 11 games as a rookie and should be on the list, as well. I didn't even bother looking up anyone else, but I strongly suspect that you left a lot of other people out of the second average who should have been in, like Enis and Fullwood should have.

Second, you establish a FLOOR (10 games/130 carries), but no ceiling. I don't think anyone in his right mind is predicting a 300 carry season for Reggie Bush. If you want to manipulate the data to throw out the low data points, you have to throw out the high ones as well. So kindly remove Tomlinson, Faulk, Dickerson, James, JamLewis, and Earl Campbell from those averages as well and tell me what the new average numbers are.

Third problem- you're talking averages here, and not success rate. I posted several times in the other thread the FREQUENCY at which a top-5 rookie RB became a top-12 or top-20 fantasy RB in his first season. If there were 10 rookie RBs, and one of them rushed for 20,000 yards and 200 scores, and all the others rushed for 0 yards, would you say it's accurate to say that the average top-5 RB rushes for 2,000 yards and 20 scores as a rookie? Of course not. Success rate is VERY important. For rookie RBs, the top-12 success rate was about 25%, and the top 24 success rate was about 50%.

Anyway, you're skewing the statistics, throwing out whatever data you don't think describes Bush because it's too low while leaving in any data that obviously doesn't describe Bush because it's too high. You can't have it both ways. You also sweep under the rug the fact that rookie RBs appear to have a higher risk of injury than veteran RBs. If you want to go with the averages of all top-5 RBs, you don't even tell how that ranks- historically, a 1172 yard and 8 TD season will rank you as about the #18 overall RB.

Statistics are all well and good, but it's better to present them with a little bit less spin. To be honest, the historical numbers are nice enough on their own. Better than what I thought they'd be. Thanks to the historical numbers, I wouldn't have a problem with ranking Bush in the top 20. Still, let's not spin the numbers to try to make them look better than they really are here.

 

[Gerg73]

But the AVERAGE Numbers for a RB drafted in the Top 5 is VERY IMPRESSIVE.

Here they are:

Carries - 220

Yards - 951

TD's - 7

Rec - 26

Rec. Yds - 221

TD's - 1

These were the Numbers I meant to be the important ones. I should've left the others off. I was just trying to show the UPSIDE that is Possibble. Barring Injury or not getrting on the field for WHATEVER Reason.

Reggie Bush WILL BE ON THE FIELD.

So, In My Mind, the players in the list who weren't are IRRELEVANT.

I don't project Reggie Bush getting injured this year. He has no History of it, so he's just as likely to play 16 games as any other NFL Rb.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I don't project Reggie Bush getting injured this year. He has no History of it, so he's just as likely to play 16 games as any other NFL Rb.

How do you know this?Hypothesis: Rookie RBs get injured/weardown moreso than veteran RBs since they aren't used to NFL caliber hits and the length of the NFL schedule.

 

[3nOut]

50% of all people are below average. Where does Bush fall in? In the group that scored better than that average, or the group that scored below that average? What I want to know are the stats for top 5 RBs that had to split time with an incumbent veteran RB starter coming off of a knee injury.

 

[(HULK)]

I don't project Reggie Bush getting injured this year. He has no History of it, so he's just as likely to play 16 games as any other NFL Rb.

How do you know this?Hypothesis: Rookie RBs get injured/weardown moreso than veteran RBs since they aren't used to NFL caliber hits and the length of the NFL schedule.

I thought this rumor was disproven?

 

[SSOG]

50% of all people are below average. Where does Bush fall in? In the group that scored better than that average, or the group that scored below that average? What I want to know are the stats for top 5 RBs that had to split time with an incumbent veteran RB starter coming off of a knee injury.

I think the closest comparison would be Warrick Dunn, who was an undersized top-5 RB known for his shiftiness and skill in the passing game who was splitting time with a veteran RB (Alstott, in this case). He wound up putting 1440 and 7 scores with 39 receptions, iirc.

I don't project Reggie Bush getting injured this year. He has no History of it, so he's just as likely to play 16 games as any other NFL Rb.

How do you know this?Hypothesis: Rookie RBs get injured/weardown moreso than veteran RBs since they aren't used to NFL caliber hits and the length of the NFL schedule.

I thought this rumor was disproven?

I don't know. I've posted several times that I'd like to see if someone had any data on whether rookie RBs got injured more than vets. Just looking at the data set of top-5 RBs, it certainly LOOKS like they miss games at a higher rate than the NFL norm, although it might be a sample size issue.