RBs with the most UPSIDE in 2007 (1 Viewer)

[The Man with the Plan]

Running backs with the most upside.

Julius Jones- If he can get half of the touchdowns of Marion Barber he'll be a great value where he's going.

Chester Taylor- For all the AD hype he's still an unproven and injury prone player. CT is the tried and true vet who will be a steal in 2007.

Vernand Morency- Probably a better runner than Ahman Green last year. He's going dirt cheap this season for a starting running back on a pretty decent Packers offense.

Chris Brown- Health is an obvious issue but since when has he been a bad player? When he's played he's produced.

If Vince Young can do for him what he did with Travis Henry, Brown could provide massive value this season.

All running backs who can be had in the 6th round or later and have the upside to be worth so much more.

I think you're selling Henry a bit short here. Vince Young was good and all, but he isn't what allowed Henry to rush for over 1200 yds in less than a full season's work. He is a just a very talented RB who has succeeded on less than optimal teams. Watch out, Denver.

Travis Henry's a good running back not a great running back. If you look at how he played early in the season with Kerry Collins he was pretty bad. Less than 3 ypc bad. Once Vince Young was on the field his yard per carry average raised sharply.It was like the effect Vick has on his offense Vince Young did the same. The qb's running ability left the field open to running backs to go wild.

Travis Henry averages less than 4 yards per carry for his career (before last season) and the year he plays with a running quarterback he runs for nearly 4.5? It's pretty clear to me what's up. That's why if Chris Brown's the starting running back for the Titans this season (and there's really no reason he shouldn't be) I think he'll have a good year. And I think alot of people expecting a top 5-10 season from Travis Henry in 2007 could wind up pretty disappointed.

You mean all TWO of those games? You mean the TWO games and one of which he got all of 9 carries? Yeah, that's a trend for you. And the 2 years as a starter for Buffalo (yes, the offensive juggernaut of Buffalo) he averaged 4.1 and 4.4 ypc in his 2nd and 3rd years in the league. I can see how Vince Young is the only reason he did so well.

As I said it's not just two games though I think they mean something. Look at his entire career. Up until last season he averaged under 4 yards a carry. Vince Young isn't the only reason but I do believe he played a big part in Travis Henry's comeback last year. If you could provide a better explanation why he posted his highest career rushing average on a less than spectacular Titans team I'd love to hear it. He wasn't that great in Buffalo. In 2002 when the Bills had one of the best offenses (top 10 scoring and yardage) in the league he averaged 4.4 yard per rush. The Titans team was not a better team offensively than that Bills team.

I don't know how many other ways to say it but Travis Henry is nothing special. He's good maybe even very good but I wouldn't say he's any better than that. Now people think that just because he's going to Denver that he's going to be the next Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis? What a joke. It's 2007 not 1997 or 2002. Ed McCaffrey doesn't play for the team anymore. Shannon Sharpe doesn't play for the Broncos. Rod Smith isn't half the player he was then. But since Travis Henry is going to play in Denver he's automatically going to be a top 5 running back. Lol.

Just to make it seem like this thread hasn't been totally derailed I'll say that Travis Henry has one of the highest "perceived" (myopic) upsides of any running back but when you look at everything unbiased actually won't be much better than he was last season.

Or Mike Anderson. Or Olandis Gary. Or Reuben Droughns. Or Tatum Bell. Or Mike Bell. You don't have to be Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis to do well in Denver. Just look at their track record. And it's not from the past, it's been consistent year after year after year up to the present. It's not like these guys last put up good rushing #'s in Denver in the 1990's. Mike Anderson is now a backup. Reuben Droughns is a backup. Tatum Bell would be backup if not for an injury. Never heard of Olandis Gary again. These are not quality backs that put up pretty substantial #'s in Denver. Travis Henry, while not Portis or TD, is MUCH more talented than the rest of those scrubs. And again, in his 3 seasons as a starter (2002, 2003, and 2006), he avg'd 4.4, 4.1, and 4.5 ypc. I don't see erratic and I don't see a huge uptick in that 4.5 that should be attributed to Young. It looks like that's just what he can average with the full load.

When you look at everything unbiased, there's no reason to think he won't do better than last year. Oh, and by the way, McCaffrey, Sharpe haven't been in Denver for a few years and last year Rod Smith didn't do much and they still put up some impressive rushing #'s. I know it's 2007.

Travis Henry is a good running back but the Broncos aren't the same on offense as they've been in the past. While Clinton Portis and Terrell Davis played incredibly well they were also helped by the fact that Denver had the top 5 offense in the league year after year. When Mike Anderson had his big year the Broncos were #2 in scoring and total offense. Those other running backs mentioned (Bells, Gary) are nothing special and don't really help people's argument about Denver being "stud running back city". They didn't do much of anything in Denver. Droughns had a pretty good season in Cleveland so he's probably more talented than people thought.In 2006 the Broncos were a mediocre offense. They were in the bottom half of the league in scoring and yardage offense. Unless you think Jay Cutler is the next John Elway (I don't) or that Travis Henry really is that much of a difference maker on offense (I don't) I have a hard time believing he's that much better off in Denver this season than he was in Tennessee last season.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, we need to start with team totals from last year and that may lead us to who has upside or not.

SD 525

NO 433

JAX 424

NE 401

STL 385

KC 369

NYG 363

PHI 362

WAS 351

PIT 348

SF 345

DAL 341

MIN 326

CHI 321

IND 314

GB 310

ATL 305

DEN 293

CIN 282

NYJ 277

HOU 275

BAL 274

CAR 267

DET 240

SEA 240

MIA 234

TEN 234

ARI 233

TB 227

BUF 218

OAK 198

CLE 164

IMO, Michael Turner would have more upside than the starters from at least 1/3 of the league.

 

[CalBear]

In 2006 the Broncos were a mediocre offense. They were in the bottom half of the league in scoring and yardage offense. Unless you think Jay Cutler is the next John Elway (I don't) or that Travis Henry really is that much of a difference maker on offense (I don't) I have a hard time believing he's that much better off in Denver this season than he was in Tennessee last season.

What if Jay Cutler is the next Jake Plummer or Brian Griese? Anderson and Portis had top-5 seasons with Griese under center, Portis repeated with Plummer at QB, and Anderson at age 32 finished in the top-10 while splitting time with Bell and with Plummer at QB.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

In 2006 the Broncos were a mediocre offense. They were in the bottom half of the league in scoring and yardage offense. Unless you think Jay Cutler is the next John Elway (I don't) or that Travis Henry really is that much of a difference maker on offense (I don't) I have a hard time believing he's that much better off in Denver this season than he was in Tennessee last season.

What if Jay Cutler is the next Jake Plummer or Brian Griese? Anderson and Portis had top-5 seasons with Griese under center, Portis repeated with Plummer at QB, and Anderson at age 32 finished in the top-10 while splitting time with Bell and with Plummer at QB.

If Jay Cutler has the same TD-INT ratio as Griese did in 2000 (19-4) and Jake Plummer did in 2003 (15-7) and 2005 (18-7) then the Broncos offense will certainly be playing much better than I anticipate. Yeah if that happens Travis Henry has a chance at top-5. I certainly wouldn't bet on that however.

 

[Dt's Mules]

I'm liking having LT, Gore, Portis and working on SA. Surely 2 of them will go big, if not 3.Anyone else think this way? Any other misses in my list?

that's awesome, be sure and check back and let us know if you get SA. If you get SA, you'll be completely unstoppable.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Running backs with the most upside.

Julius Jones- If he can get half of the touchdowns of Marion Barber he'll be a great value where he's going.

Chester Taylor- For all the AD hype he's still an unproven and injury prone player. CT is the tried and true vet who will be a steal in 2007.

Vernand Morency- Probably a better runner than Ahman Green last year. He's going dirt cheap this season for a starting running back on a pretty decent Packers offense.

Chris Brown- Health is an obvious issue but since when has he been a bad player? When he's played he's produced.

If Vince Young can do for him what he did with Travis Henry, Brown could provide massive value this season.

All running backs who can be had in the 6th round or later and have the upside to be worth so much more.

I think you're selling Henry a bit short here. Vince Young was good and all, but he isn't what allowed Henry to rush for over 1200 yds in less than a full season's work. He is a just a very talented RB who has succeeded on less than optimal teams. Watch out, Denver.

Travis Henry's a good running back not a great running back. If you look at how he played early in the season with Kerry Collins he was pretty bad. Less than 3 ypc bad. Once Vince Young was on the field his yard per carry average raised sharply.It was like the effect Vick has on his offense Vince Young did the same. The qb's running ability left the field open to running backs to go wild.

Travis Henry averages less than 4 yards per carry for his career (before last season) and the year he plays with a running quarterback he runs for nearly 4.5? It's pretty clear to me what's up. That's why if Chris Brown's the starting running back for the Titans this season (and there's really no reason he shouldn't be) I think he'll have a good year. And I think alot of people expecting a top 5-10 season from Travis Henry in 2007 could wind up pretty disappointed.

You mean all TWO of those games? You mean the TWO games and one of which he got all of 9 carries? Yeah, that's a trend for you. And the 2 years as a starter for Buffalo (yes, the offensive juggernaut of Buffalo) he averaged 4.1 and 4.4 ypc in his 2nd and 3rd years in the league. I can see how Vince Young is the only reason he did so well.

As I said it's not just two games though I think they mean something. Look at his entire career. Up until last season he averaged under 4 yards a carry. Vince Young isn't the only reason but I do believe he played a big part in Travis Henry's comeback last year. If you could provide a better explanation why he posted his highest career rushing average on a less than spectacular Titans team I'd love to hear it. He wasn't that great in Buffalo. In 2002 when the Bills had one of the best offenses (top 10 scoring and yardage) in the league he averaged 4.4 yard per rush. The Titans team was not a better team offensively than that Bills team.

I don't know how many other ways to say it but Travis Henry is nothing special. He's good maybe even very good but I wouldn't say he's any better than that. Now people think that just because he's going to Denver that he's going to be the next Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis? What a joke. It's 2007 not 1997 or 2002. Ed McCaffrey doesn't play for the team anymore. Shannon Sharpe doesn't play for the Broncos. Rod Smith isn't half the player he was then. But since Travis Henry is going to play in Denver he's automatically going to be a top 5 running back. Lol.

Just to make it seem like this thread hasn't been totally derailed I'll say that Travis Henry has one of the highest "perceived" (myopic) upsides of any running back but when you look at everything unbiased actually won't be much better than he was last season.

I find it AMAZING how so many people on this board (and these are people who call themselves sharks mind you) are getting caught in this Henry hype. What people just do not get is that the Denver OL is just not that good these days and they have had their starters suffer injuries last year which you do not know if they will come back from and play as well. Also, they will not have Rod Smith blocking for them..... 1000 yards by a RB is no big deal in today's NFL. Henry will not produce as per his ADP.....

His YPC over his career is average at best and how many times has Henry been injured? Also people keep pointing to his production last year.....do these guys realize that playing against Indy and Houston can help a lot of RBs.

Is Denver playing Houston and Indy twice this year?

Also Titans got to play against really bad run defenses like Eagles, Redskins and Bills last year. Again, look at Denver's schedule this year.....Bears, Vikings, Green Bay are all better defenses, especially against the run than the NFC East and AFC South were last year

When he played against a real run D like Jax, they guy was back to his < 4 YPC crap.....3.5 YPC and 3.1 YPC to be precise

 

[gianmarco]

In 2006 the Broncos were a mediocre offense. They were in the bottom half of the league in scoring and yardage offense. Unless you think Jay Cutler is the next John Elway (I don't) or that Travis Henry really is that much of a difference maker on offense (I don't) I have a hard time believing he's that much better off in Denver this season than he was in Tennessee last season.

You're making statements and generalizations and thinking that one thing is necessary for the other. What does it matter if the Broncos were a mediocre offense? Tenn was the 28th best offense last year yet Vince Young AND Travis Henry were able to put up decent FANTASY #'s. A good offense is not needed for fantasy production. Why does Jay Cutler have to be the next Elway? Does a RB need to have a HOF QB to put up good #'s? LJ had Damon Huard last year. Gore had Alex Smith. Willie Parker has Big Ben. Travis Henry doesn't need John Elway to put up good fantasy #'s.This is what I do know. Last year, as a rookie, Mike Bell ran 157 times for 677 yds (4.3 ypc) and scored 8 times. Tatum Bell ran 233 times for 1025 yds (4.4 ypc) and scored 2 times. That's 390 rushes with a 4.3-4.4 ypc average. Now, please don't tell me that either Bell is a better RB than Henry. If you don't think that Henry can AT LEAST come close to those #'s as the feature back, which would put him at a floor of about 1200-1300 yds rushing with a decent shot at double digit TD's (Henry has never had a problem finding the endzone), then I'm not sure what else to say.But your statements above don't really make sense to me. I'm just not quite sure why he would need Cutler to be like Elway or why it matters if Denver was a mediocre offense when they were still quite succesful running the ball with below average RB's last year. If that's necessary, then please explain how a team like SF with A. Smith as QB was able to allow Gore to do as well as he did.

 

[gianmarco]

As I said it's not just two games though I think they mean something. Look at his entire career. Up until last season he averaged under 4 yards a carry.

Vince Young isn't the only reason but I do believe he played a big part in Travis Henry's comeback last year. If you could provide a better explanation why he posted his highest career rushing average on a less than spectacular Titans team I'd love to hear it. He wasn't that great in Buffalo. In 2002 when the Bills had one of the best offenses (top 10 scoring and yardage) in the league he averaged 4.4 yard per rush. The Titans team was not a better team offensively than that Bills team.

I don't know how many other ways to say it but Travis Henry is nothing special. He's good maybe even very good but I wouldn't say he's any better than that. Now people think that just because he's going to Denver that he's going to be the next Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis? What a joke. It's 2007 not 1997 or 2002. Ed McCaffrey doesn't play for the team anymore. Shannon Sharpe doesn't play for the Broncos. Rod Smith isn't half the player he was then. But since Travis Henry is going to play in Denver he's automatically going to be a top 5 running back. Lol.

Just to make it seem like this thread hasn't been totally derailed I'll say that Travis Henry has one of the highest "perceived" (myopic) upsides of any running back but when you look at everything unbiased actually won't be much better than he was last season.

I find it AMAZING how so many people on this board (and these are people who call themselves sharks mind you) are getting caught in this Henry hype. What people just do not get is that the Denver OL is just not that good these days and they have had their starters suffer injuries last year which you do not know if they will come back from and play as well. Also, they will not have Rod Smith blocking for them..... 1000 yards by a RB is no big deal in today's NFL. Henry will not produce as per his ADP.....



His YPC over his career is average at best and how many times has Henry been injured? Also people keep pointing to his production last year.....do these guys realize that playing against Indy and Houston can help a lot of RBs.

Is Denver playing Houston and Indy twice this year?

Also Titans got to play against really bad run defenses like Eagles, Redskins and Bills last year. Again, look at Denver's schedule this year.....Bears, Vikings, Green Bay are all better defenses, especially against the run than the NFC East and AFC South were last year

When he played against a real run D like Jax, they guy was back to his < 4 YPC crap.....3.5 YPC and 3.1 YPC to be precise

Aside from torn rib cartilage and a broken leg (both of which he played through), I'm not sure...do you know how many times he's been injured? Because that's it. He missed the remainer of the 2004 season (when he was a backup) because of the broken leg. Aside from that, in his 3 years as a starer, he's missed only 1 game (the rib cartilage in the last game of the season). The rest of his time that was missed was due to suspension, not injuries. He's essentially had one injury, back in 2004, and has played without a problem since then. He played the entire year last year without missing a game to injury. So how is that an issue? There are very few completely injury-free players in the NFL. Alexander, LT, Parker, Westbrook, Portis, Edge....all of these guys have had injuries and missed time. Henry's injury history is no more significant than any of those guys.Oh, and about Denver's schedule. They get to play the vaunted defenses of Buffalo, Indy, Detroit, KC (twice), Tenn, and Houston. That's half a season of juicy matchups. So how is that an issue again?

ETA--And last year when he played the 2 toughest defenses of the year, against NE (5th against the run in 2006) and Baltimore (2nd against the run in 2006), he hung up 100+ yds on both of them. 4.0 ypc vs. Balt and 4.9 ypc vs. NE. I know it's nice to leave out those kinds of #'s to prove your point, but if you're gonna mention his low ypc vs Jax as proof that he can't run against a good defense, then be sure to notice his other games against these top 2 defenses. I wouldn't be worried about him running against a tough defense. He's already proven he can do it.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

In 2006 the Broncos were a mediocre offense. They were in the bottom half of the league in scoring and yardage offense. Unless you think Jay Cutler is the next John Elway (I don't) or that Travis Henry really is that much of a difference maker on offense (I don't) I have a hard time believing he's that much better off in Denver this season than he was in Tennessee last season.

You're making statements and generalizations and thinking that one thing is necessary for the other. What does it matter if the Broncos were a mediocre offense? Tenn was the 28th best offense last year yet Vince Young AND Travis Henry were able to put up decent FANTASY #'s. A good offense is not needed for fantasy production. Why does Jay Cutler have to be the next Elway? Does a RB need to have a HOF QB to put up good #'s? LJ had Damon Huard last year. Gore had Alex Smith. Willie Parker has Big Ben. Travis Henry doesn't need John Elway to put up good fantasy #'s.This is what I do know. Last year, as a rookie, Mike Bell ran 157 times for 677 yds (4.3 ypc) and scored 8 times. Tatum Bell ran 233 times for 1025 yds (4.4 ypc) and scored 2 times. That's 390 rushes with a 4.3-4.4 ypc average. Now, please don't tell me that either Bell is a better RB than Henry. If you don't think that Henry can AT LEAST come close to those #'s as the feature back, which would put him at a floor of about 1200-1300 yds rushing with a decent shot at double digit TD's (Henry has never had a problem finding the endzone), then I'm not sure what else to say.

But your statements above don't really make sense to me. I'm just not quite sure why he would need Cutler to be like Elway or why it matters if Denver was a mediocre offense when they were still quite succesful running the ball with below average RB's last year. If that's necessary, then please explain how a team like SF with A. Smith as QB was able to allow Gore to do as well as he did.

For all this talk about Travis Henry he was the 22nd ranked running back last season. What's changed so much from this year to next? If anything he's going to a worse offense. Statistically Tennessee last season was pretty much equal to Denver and down the stretch the Titans were a much better offense than the Broncos and he still wasn't in the top 20. So if anything it could (and probably should) be considered a downgrade him going to Denver. But since people keep harking back to the glory days of the Denver Broncos they expect him to have this great magical season.Tatum Bell and Mike Bell combined to have a great year at running back but that's both of them. And at the same time neither of them. Travis Henry is better than both Bells I'll give you that. By how much though I think not alot. What you had as his statistical floor of 1300 yards rushing and double digit touchdowns I see as his ceiling. To expect much better is a mistake in my opinion.

In order for a player to be a top 5-10 (particularly top 5) running back he has to either be supremely talented (Larry Johnson, Frank Gore) very talented and playing on a good offense (Steven Jackson, Willie Parker) or both (LaDainian Tomlinson). I can't really see that about Travis Henry. He's not that great. Probably in the top half of running backs in the league but not in the top 10 in that category. And the Broncos just aren't as good offensively as they've been in the past.

In his career Travis Henry has only been ranked in the top 10 one time. And that was 5 seasons playing ago for a Buffalo Bills team that was among the best in the league with a 4000 yard passer and 2 1000 yard receivers. If Jay Cutler can play pretty well I think that Travis Henry has a chance at a low top-10 finish. Henry's not good enough to carry a team by himself like a Frank Gore or Larry Johnson so I think the situation is important for a player like him and I don't think it's that great.

 

[Righetti]

I'm liking having LT, Gore, Portis and working on SA. Surely 2 of them will go big, if not 3.Anyone else think this way? Any other misses in my list?

that's awesome, be sure and check back and let us know if you get SA. If you get SA, you'll be completely unstoppable.

 

[gianmarco]

In 2006 the Broncos were a mediocre offense. They were in the bottom half of the league in scoring and yardage offense. Unless you think Jay Cutler is the next John Elway (I don't) or that Travis Henry really is that much of a difference maker on offense (I don't) I have a hard time believing he's that much better off in Denver this season than he was in Tennessee last season.

You're making statements and generalizations and thinking that one thing is necessary for the other. What does it matter if the Broncos were a mediocre offense? Tenn was the 28th best offense last year yet Vince Young AND Travis Henry were able to put up decent FANTASY #'s. A good offense is not needed for fantasy production. Why does Jay Cutler have to be the next Elway? Does a RB need to have a HOF QB to put up good #'s? LJ had Damon Huard last year. Gore had Alex Smith. Willie Parker has Big Ben. Travis Henry doesn't need John Elway to put up good fantasy #'s.This is what I do know. Last year, as a rookie, Mike Bell ran 157 times for 677 yds (4.3 ypc) and scored 8 times. Tatum Bell ran 233 times for 1025 yds (4.4 ypc) and scored 2 times. That's 390 rushes with a 4.3-4.4 ypc average. Now, please don't tell me that either Bell is a better RB than Henry. If you don't think that Henry can AT LEAST come close to those #'s as the feature back, which would put him at a floor of about 1200-1300 yds rushing with a decent shot at double digit TD's (Henry has never had a problem finding the endzone), then I'm not sure what else to say.

But your statements above don't really make sense to me. I'm just not quite sure why he would need Cutler to be like Elway or why it matters if Denver was a mediocre offense when they were still quite succesful running the ball with below average RB's last year. If that's necessary, then please explain how a team like SF with A. Smith as QB was able to allow Gore to do as well as he did.

For all this talk about Travis Henry he was the 22nd ranked running back last season. What's changed so much from this year to next? If anything he's going to a worse offense. Statistically Tennessee last season was pretty much equal to Denver and down the stretch the Titans were a much better offense than the Broncos and he still wasn't in the top 20. So if anything it could (and probably should) be considered a downgrade him going to Denver. But since people keep harking back to the glory days of the Denver Broncos they expect him to have this great magical season.Tatum Bell and Mike Bell combined to have a great year at running back but that's both of them. And at the same time neither of them. Travis Henry is better than both Bells I'll give you that. By how much though I think not alot. What you had as his statistical floor of 1300 yards rushing and double digit touchdowns I see as his ceiling. To expect much better is a mistake in my opinion.

In order for a player to be a top 5-10 (particularly top 5) running back he has to either be supremely talented (Larry Johnson, Frank Gore) very talented and playing on a good offense (Steven Jackson, Willie Parker) or both (LaDainian Tomlinson). I can't really see that about Travis Henry. He's not that great. Probably in the top half of running backs in the league but not in the top 10 in that category. And the Broncos just aren't as good offensively as they've been in the past.

In his career Travis Henry has only been ranked in the top 10 one time. And that was 5 seasons playing ago for a Buffalo Bills team that was among the best in the league with a 4000 yard passer and 2 1000 yard receivers. If Jay Cutler can play pretty well I think that Travis Henry has a chance at a low top-10 finish. Henry's not good enough to carry a team by himself like a Frank Gore or Larry Johnson so I think the situation is important for a player like him and I don't think it's that great.

First of all, please tell me you're kidding that he's going to a worst offense by leaving Tenn and going to Denver. Secondly, saying Henry has ranked in the top 10 only once is a little inaccurate. Yes, he finished 8th in 2002. In 2003, he finished 11th, but he missed a game. On a ppg basis, he was top 10 in 2003 as well. And last year, yes, overall he finished 22nd. But he only started 12 games out of the season. He didn't play in 2 games at the beginning of the season. Even if you count his first 2 weeks when he wasn't a starter, on a ppg basis, he would have finished top 10. So, in the 3 years he was a starter, he's had 3 top 10 ppg finishes. You keep on discounting Denver and its rushing offense, but you are in the minority in that regard. I see a top 10 RB with decent talent (albeit not elite) in a fantastic situation. There's no reason to think he can't crack the top 10 yet again (as he's done in every year he's been a starter) and being in Denver will only improve that, not make it worse.

 

[rdstorm]

The biggest upside RBs I see are:

Caddy (better QB play, improved and healthy OL, healthy and taking more precaution against injury himself)

Edge (improved OL, better QB play, better coaching that is more run-focused)

Chris Henry (he's got all the potential in the world once he's ready for prime time in the NFL)

 

[zamboni]

Chris Henry (he's got all the potential in the world once he's ready for prime time in the NFL)

Curious as to your thinking given that he's widely viewed as a poor draft pick by the Titans.

 

[Sleeper 43]

In 2006 the Broncos were a mediocre offense. They were in the bottom half of the league in scoring and yardage offense. Unless you think Jay Cutler is the next John Elway (I don't) or that Travis Henry really is that much of a difference maker on offense (I don't) I have a hard time believing he's that much better off in Denver this season than he was in Tennessee last season.

You're making statements and generalizations and thinking that one thing is necessary for the other. What does it matter if the Broncos were a mediocre offense? Tenn was the 28th best offense last year yet Vince Young AND Travis Henry were able to put up decent FANTASY #'s. A good offense is not needed for fantasy production. Why does Jay Cutler have to be the next Elway? Does a RB need to have a HOF QB to put up good #'s? LJ had Damon Huard last year. Gore had Alex Smith. Willie Parker has Big Ben. Travis Henry doesn't need John Elway to put up good fantasy #'s.This is what I do know. Last year, as a rookie, Mike Bell ran 157 times for 677 yds (4.3 ypc) and scored 8 times. Tatum Bell ran 233 times for 1025 yds (4.4 ypc) and scored 2 times. That's 390 rushes with a 4.3-4.4 ypc average. Now, please don't tell me that either Bell is a better RB than Henry. If you don't think that Henry can AT LEAST come close to those #'s as the feature back, which would put him at a floor of about 1200-1300 yds rushing with a decent shot at double digit TD's (Henry has never had a problem finding the endzone), then I'm not sure what else to say.

But your statements above don't really make sense to me. I'm just not quite sure why he would need Cutler to be like Elway or why it matters if Denver was a mediocre offense when they were still quite succesful running the ball with below average RB's last year. If that's necessary, then please explain how a team like SF with A. Smith as QB was able to allow Gore to do as well as he did.

For all this talk about Travis Henry he was the 22nd ranked running back last season. What's changed so much from this year to next? If anything he's going to a worse offense. Statistically Tennessee last season was pretty much equal to Denver and down the stretch the Titans were a much better offense than the Broncos and he still wasn't in the top 20. So if anything it could (and probably should) be considered a downgrade him going to Denver. But since people keep harking back to the glory days of the Denver Broncos they expect him to have this great magical season.Tatum Bell and Mike Bell combined to have a great year at running back but that's both of them. And at the same time neither of them. Travis Henry is better than both Bells I'll give you that. By how much though I think not alot. What you had as his statistical floor of 1300 yards rushing and double digit touchdowns I see as his ceiling. To expect much better is a mistake in my opinion.

In order for a player to be a top 5-10 (particularly top 5) running back he has to either be supremely talented (Larry Johnson, Frank Gore) very talented and playing on a good offense (Steven Jackson, Willie Parker) or both (LaDainian Tomlinson). I can't really see that about Travis Henry. He's not that great. Probably in the top half of running backs in the league but not in the top 10 in that category. And the Broncos just aren't as good offensively as they've been in the past.

In his career Travis Henry has only been ranked in the top 10 one time. And that was 5 seasons playing ago for a Buffalo Bills team that was among the best in the league with a 4000 yard passer and 2 1000 yard receivers. If Jay Cutler can play pretty well I think that Travis Henry has a chance at a low top-10 finish. Henry's not good enough to carry a team by himself like a Frank Gore or Larry Johnson so I think the situation is important for a player like him and I don't think it's that great.

So Travis is going to get the full load and he is better than both Bells. Shanny brought in Travis because probably because he was tired off grooming for now. Shanny will feel more comfortable in running the ball with a vet and as a result you'll have 1 RB getting a ton of carries in a historically successful RB system. Travis is an ideal one cut runner as well. In Re-draft hes a RB1 this year.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Norwood - could get all the playing time...

Benson - if he gets the clear majority of carries,....

MJD - if Taylor goes down...

Maroney - I think he's healthy...

The consistent theme is that the upside is tied to increased carries or health issues.

Love Norwood's upside. Another miss on my part. He'd be on the edge of the top. QB questions make me wonder a bit...

what makes people think norwood would get all of the playing time?

Explosiveness. 32 year old Dunn who turns 33 in January.

Norwood averaging 2.4 yards more per carry then Dunn last year. (Yes, he did have only one third the carries)

Dunn - herniated disc - out 6 weeks.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=329028

 

[sholditch]

Norwood moves to the top of my value play list with today's news. I think he will hold onto the starting job all year.

 

[cstu]

Norwood moves to the top of my value play list with today's news. I think he will hold onto the starting job all year.

If you're willing to take chances, Norwood could be a league-winner this year.

 

[rdstorm]

Chris Henry (he's got all the potential in the world once he's ready for prime time in the NFL)

Curious as to your thinking given that he's widely viewed as a poor draft pick by the Titans.

The Chris Henry pick is "widely viewed" as in "outside of the Titans' organization (and the other organizations that would have drafted him in the 2nd or early 3rd, and there were some)" as a poor draft pick, you are correct. The Titans, on the other hand are on record as saying they thought about taking him in the first round. The reason people thought he went too high was his lack of numbers in college. His combine and workout numbers were excellent. I don't remember the exact reasons for his college numbers being so low, but I do remember there were a few. And I do remember that the Titans looked into them and were satisfied of the reasons. Off the top of my head, I think the coach that recruited him left, he was suspended for awile because of grades (maybe?), and there was a minor injury that made him miss some games. When he did start the last few games of last year, he put up some pretty decent numbers playing on a bad team against the Pac10. His workout numbers compare favorably to Willie Parker, only he doesn't have a Jerome Bettis to make him sit the bench for a couple of years before getting his chance to start.The bottom line is the Titans' like his work ethic and think he's a big-time RB. Of the 3 name RBs on their roster (Brown, White, and Henry) the coaches want Henry to win the job. They will give him every chance to do so. I doubt he will be the starter by the start of the regular season, just by virtue of the fact that Chris Brown is back that tells me that Henry isn't quite ready yet, but when Brown goes down around week 6, look for Henry to step in and never look back.

 

[Penguin]

Of the 3 name RBs on their roster (Brown, White, and Henry) the coaches want Henry to win the job. They will give him every chance to do so.

First of all, I have a hard time believing this. Secondly, if it is true I can only imagine that it's because Henry has a tremendous work ethic where as Mr.White has a reutation of being lazy and Mr. Brown always seems to be on the mend, which usually ticks coaches off. Bottom line is that if I had three RB's on my team and one of them worked his ### off while the second RB showed up late, overweight & unmoivated after being hand feed the starting job and your #3 guy was already cut and resigned and has a history of being a ######.... yeah, I'd be rooting for #1 (Chris Henry) even though he has almost zero football skills. I just don't like lazy players or players that won't play when slightly nicked up, I think most coaches feelthe same way. Pers

 

[JAA]

Benson, Willis, Portis, Ten RB, and Addai

 

[buster c]

great thread! names I've not seen mentioned as potential UPSIDE:

Tatum Bell - he could surprise in Det (not that I expect him to)

Willis McGahee - not too long ago, Lewis churned out 2K in a Billick offense

Marsha Lynch - the corn-rowed one is going to a conservative, run-oriented team

Ronnie Brown - as a recovering RB owner, I'm not surprised to see him fall. a year ago, he was highly regarded (and again, no Ricky threat)

 

[ImTheScientist]

Running backs with the most upside.

.

I think you're selling Henry a bit short here. Vince Young was good and all, but he isn't what allowed Henry to rush for over 1200 yds in less than a full season's work. He is a just a very talented RB who has succeeded on less than optimal teams. Watch out, Denver.

Travis Henry's a good running back not a great running back. If you look at how he played early in the season with Kerry Collins he was pretty bad. Less than 3 ypc bad. Once Vince Young was on the field his yard per carry average raised sharply.It was like the effect Vick has on his offense Vince Young did the same. The qb's running ability left the field open to running backs to go wild.

Travis Henry averages less than 4 yards per carry for his career (before last season) and the year he plays with a running quarterback he runs for nearly 4.5? It's pretty clear to me what's up. That's why if Chris Brown's the starting running back for the Titans this season (and there's really no reason he shouldn't be) I think he'll have a good year. And I think alot of people expecting a top 5-10 season from Travis Henry in 2007 could wind up pretty disappointed.

You mean all TWO of those games? You mean the TWO games and one of which he got all of 9 carries? Yeah, that's a trend for you. And the 2 years as a starter for Buffalo (yes, the offensive juggernaut of Buffalo) he averaged 4.1 and 4.4 ypc in his 2nd and 3rd years in the league. I can see how Vince Young is the only reason he did so well.

As I said it's not just two games though I think they mean something. Look at his entire career. Up until last season he averaged under 4 yards a carry. Vince Young isn't the only reason but I do believe he played a big part in Travis Henry's comeback last year. If you could provide a better explanation why he posted his highest career rushing average on a less than spectacular Titans team I'd love to hear it. He wasn't that great in Buffalo. In 2002 when the Bills had one of the best offenses (top 10 scoring and yardage) in the league he averaged 4.4 yard per rush. The Titans team was not a better team offensively than that Bills team.

I don't know how many other ways to say it but Travis Henry is nothing special. He's good maybe even very good but I wouldn't say he's any better than that. Now people think that just because he's going to Denver that he's going to be the next Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis? What a joke. It's 2007 not 1997 or 2002. Ed McCaffrey doesn't play for the team anymore. Shannon Sharpe doesn't play for the Broncos. Rod Smith isn't half the player he was then. But since Travis Henry is going to play in Denver he's automatically going to be a top 5 running back. Lol.

Just to make it seem like this thread hasn't been totally derailed I'll say that Travis Henry has one of the highest "perceived" (myopic) upsides of any running back but when you look at everything unbiased actually won't be much better than he was last season.

I find it AMAZING how so many people on this board (and these are people who call themselves sharks mind you) are getting caught in this Henry hype. What people just do not get is that the Denver OL is just not that good these days and they have had their starters suffer injuries last year which you do not know if they will come back from and play as well. Also, they will not have Rod Smith blocking for them..... 1000 yards by a RB is no big deal in today's NFL. Henry will not produce as per his ADP.....

His YPC over his career is average at best and how many times has Henry been injured? Also people keep pointing to his production last year.....do these guys realize that playing against Indy and Houston can help a lot of RBs.

Is Denver playing Houston and Indy twice this year?

Also Titans got to play against really bad run defenses like Eagles, Redskins and Bills last year. Again, look at Denver's schedule this year.....Bears, Vikings, Green Bay are all better defenses, especially against the run than the NFC East and AFC South were last year

When he played against a real run D like Jax, they guy was back to his < 4 YPC crap.....3.5 YPC and 3.1 YPC to be precise

I could not agree more.