Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
We have had several heartbreaking losses in the FFA/FBG over the last couple years and one very recently. You feel almost helpless in wanting to assist or do something so I thought a reboot of an old thread idea might be a good way to bring everyone together in honor of those we've lost. My hope is to simply make a few folks chuckle as I make a complete fool of myself trying to predict the unpredictable in week 1.
I can promise you that at least 50% of the games will not go as planned or how I write them because if I was that good I would be hosting a weekly from an MGM Penthouse on the Strip. And being out of the loop on some stuff makes my advice especially dangerous, I'm more Stugotz than anything these days. If you don't know him, that's Dan LeBatard's ######ed co-host who likes nothing more than to spout off hot takes much to the chagrin of Dan.
You might as well ask this guy for advice vs listening to much I am about to post but in the spirit of the good ole days and also for my friends who still hang out in here, let's have some fun and learn a little form each other although at this point I must say I get the better end of that deal and probably always have. If you have a hot take, be my guest.
I'm not up to speed on a lot of things so take it easy on the old man. I haven't posted much in the player threads, quite frankly there wasn't much to say you couldn't find all over the internet. Somehow though these threads have a way of finding diamonds in the rough. Hopefully most of you have solid options and don't have to squeeze 10 points out of the WR3 in Los Angeles...do they have a viable WR3 there yet?
I am still working on the SNF plus 2 MNFs but I have the rest done and will post them up for discussion.
WDIS Alert***
Let's do this for those who want to post a couple players that they have to choose from but to make it more fun for everyone. Let me give you an example to help.
"MOP, I gotz Spencer Ware and LeSean McCoy, only can start one this week. I like Ware because he seems like the sure lead back in KC Week 1 plus a fairly easy match up with the Chargers, should have a field day vs McCoy who I like but is facing the Ravens on the road and Ware seems to have a slightly easier match up."
-If you can do something like that it makes it more enjoyable for everyone and also gives me a track to run on so I understand your thought process. Otherwise I have to ignore the post because the Mods want that stuff in the WDIS forum, tyvm.
Carolina vs Denver +3 (41.5)
What a wild opener and not just because it’s a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. Manning has retired, not sure if that’s good or not. Mark Sanchez was brought in to ease the pain and he didn’t make the Final 53. I’m not sure what Denver will be able to do on offense. So much so, hard to predict what the stats are going to look like for Thomas, Sanders, and CJ Anderson. If you feel confident in starting them do understand the road looks a little rocky for now. Carolina has a tough front 7, almost as good as Denver yet they suddenly look vulnerable in the secondary. They couldn’t pick a better team to line up with as it looks they are still trying to find themselves on offense.
The defense for Denver is lights out and the secondary makes it especially hard to recommend many of their starters beyond Cam Newton who will be lucky to rack up 250 yds of offense combined and maybe 1-2 TD but points will come at a premium IMO. Stewart is always a gamble but he managed close to 1,000 rush last season. Where he loses steam are 16 Carolina rushing TD between he and the QB but Newton got 10 of them. Stewart is never more than an RB2 option. It might not even be that vs Denver but should Carolina get a small lead, even 13-7 you can be assured Stewart will see a lot of carries down the stretch. Whitaker and Payne are not true threats for touches. Greg Olsen will see 8 or 9 targets, can he produce enough to land in the top 12 week 1? Teddy Ginn is still around, really he is. Most WRs for Carolina should be on your bench.
Final Score: Carolina 17...Denver 12
Cleveland vs Philadelphia -4 (47.5)
I look at the over under here and something is telling Vegas these two teams are going to score a lot of points. Now one team is fielding a rookie QB, the other an injured bill of goods that some folks feel is either ready to roll or one tackle from being out 6-8 weeks again. The Browns have one of the worst starting front 7s in the NFL and then you add a shaky secondary and if Wentz were going to have a good start like a Mariota from 2015 this could be the team to have a coming out party. At the same time my football memories tend to tell a different tale. Odds are not good Wentz comes out and lights it up. Is Philly in full rebuild mode? Their defense is middle of the road, if the offense were good they could challenge in this shaky NFC Easy/East. They likely will need to get Wentz more help at the skill positions but overall Philly is not that bad and their OL is still in the upper half of the league if not higher.
Jordan Mathews had 3x as many targets as Aghalor and Huff last season. Things are different but those are your starting 3 WRs as best we can tell right now. I feel like Philly is a bit fluid in their skill positions, meaning anyone showing a hot hand wins the targets and nobody is untradeable IMHO...they traded Bradford, seems like they are in the mood to stockpile picks and build around Wentz. I feel like Philly when they commit to a plan, go 100% until they are certain that it won’t work out. They were married to Reid until they had to do something, with Chip they figured it out much faster. By as early as 2017 I expect this team to look much different than now. You are rolling the dice with most of the Philly skill position guys until we see a game or two and what the actual offense is trying to run. I hope you have stronger choices to start the season. Phi RBs not a good idea at the moment.
Cleveland on the other hand has a couple interesting options. I’ll start with RG III who I expect to have a good game and also throw an interception at a key moment. I am a Hue Jackson fan and feel like Cleveland could steal this game Week 1 with Philly rolling the rookie out at QB. Jackson knows how to scheme and I think there will be a strong game plan here. Jackson is going to want to show quickly there is a new Sheriff and his name ain’t Reggie Hammond, I expect results as early as week 1, this team is going to pop some folks and despite a rather mediocre at best defense, I expect the Browns to move the football. RG 3 is a good candidate for top 20 Week 1.
Duke Johnson is a guy I will be watching early in the season. He seems like he has learned a lot going into year 2 and there are a few of these guys in the NFL that were drafted in 2015 and had rather slow NFL starts. Duke had the quietest 50+ catch season you have ever seen by a rookie. Josh Gordon is still susp for a few more games and the WRs are leaning on folks like converted QB/WR Terrelle Pryor and rookie Corey Coleman. Crowell is going to start the game and he might have more carries but I think Crowell tops out at 14-15 touches where Duke should see 8-10 carries at a minimum and then another 5-7 targets and whatever he can rack up thru the air. If you drafted Johnson I believe you will like the early returns and get set for a coming out party in 2016. By Week 5 he should be rolling with the 1s.
Final Score: Cleveland 24...Philadelphia 20
Tampa Bay vs Atlanta -3 (47.5)
Julio Jones has had pretty impressive games the last 2 years vs the Bucs, something like 8/120/TD is about the avg over 4 games, this week should be no different. Devonta Freeman had around 100 yds rush/rec vs the Bucs each game last year plus about 15 receptions spread over the 2 games, he’s a good bet to have a nice game Week 1. Both the WR2 and TE spot should be a bench play for now. Sanu is OK but he might take a while to emerge, don’t rush him out there if you drafted him. This also leads me to believe Freeman will see plenty of receptions even if Coleman gets a few more carries this season. Matt Ryan is a good play this week.
For the Bucs, you have a suspect OL and a suspect defense, vital for this offense to show up and take some of the pressure off. No reason to not play Mike Evans and also Vincent Jackson should see plenty of targets as the Bucs try and stay with Atlanta, a tall task for sure. Doug Martin might not have a strong week as Sims is perhaps better suited in what will eventually turn into a pass happy offense to match the Falcons. This game will be different in Bucs Stadium but not in Atlanta Week 1.
Final Score: Atlanta 31...Tampa Bay 21
Cincinnati vs New York +2 (42)
This game should be straightforward for what most owners are looking for. There is no need to over analyze this. Brandon Marshall will see tight coverage from one of the better secondaries but he also will find his points. The floor is likely 6/60 so you better start him unless you have Cooper and Julio in some dynasty league but in redraft he should be a must start no matter the DB across from him. And Decker will be a decent play as well in your flex or WR3 spot. He also has a floor of around 4/50 most weeks so he rarely blanks on you. If Marshall steals all the coverage usually Decker makes them pay. Matt Forte will see plenty of action in the passing game.
AJ Green was hurt in the preseason. Of course he says he is fine but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had just an average vs amazing week. The Bengals have to fill in the blanks for their WR2/3 spots plus Tyler Eifert is likely out. Will Cinci be in a position to run the clock out with Hill for much of the game...not likely in Week 1 @NY so enter who might be the best play on the board for Cinci this week and that is Giovani Bernard. I see 80-100 rush/rec and 4-5 catches, should he score for once he could hit the 20 point plateau in PPR leagues. Jeremy Hill will have some strong weeks, he is likely to see a decent amount of carries but the Jets can move the football and the Bengals will need to show up on offense, their defense isn’t pitching a shutout in this one.
Final Score: New York Jets 20...Cincinnati 17 UPSET!
If you have some injury report info to share or a camp report don't be shy, a twitter feed or beat writer in your area is especially welcome.
Thank you and Cheers everyone!
I can promise you that at least 50% of the games will not go as planned or how I write them because if I was that good I would be hosting a weekly from an MGM Penthouse on the Strip. And being out of the loop on some stuff makes my advice especially dangerous, I'm more Stugotz than anything these days. If you don't know him, that's Dan LeBatard's ######ed co-host who likes nothing more than to spout off hot takes much to the chagrin of Dan.
You might as well ask this guy for advice vs listening to much I am about to post but in the spirit of the good ole days and also for my friends who still hang out in here, let's have some fun and learn a little form each other although at this point I must say I get the better end of that deal and probably always have. If you have a hot take, be my guest.
I'm not up to speed on a lot of things so take it easy on the old man. I haven't posted much in the player threads, quite frankly there wasn't much to say you couldn't find all over the internet. Somehow though these threads have a way of finding diamonds in the rough. Hopefully most of you have solid options and don't have to squeeze 10 points out of the WR3 in Los Angeles...do they have a viable WR3 there yet?
I am still working on the SNF plus 2 MNFs but I have the rest done and will post them up for discussion.
WDIS Alert***
Let's do this for those who want to post a couple players that they have to choose from but to make it more fun for everyone. Let me give you an example to help.
"MOP, I gotz Spencer Ware and LeSean McCoy, only can start one this week. I like Ware because he seems like the sure lead back in KC Week 1 plus a fairly easy match up with the Chargers, should have a field day vs McCoy who I like but is facing the Ravens on the road and Ware seems to have a slightly easier match up."
-If you can do something like that it makes it more enjoyable for everyone and also gives me a track to run on so I understand your thought process. Otherwise I have to ignore the post because the Mods want that stuff in the WDIS forum, tyvm.
Carolina vs Denver +3 (41.5)
What a wild opener and not just because it’s a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. Manning has retired, not sure if that’s good or not. Mark Sanchez was brought in to ease the pain and he didn’t make the Final 53. I’m not sure what Denver will be able to do on offense. So much so, hard to predict what the stats are going to look like for Thomas, Sanders, and CJ Anderson. If you feel confident in starting them do understand the road looks a little rocky for now. Carolina has a tough front 7, almost as good as Denver yet they suddenly look vulnerable in the secondary. They couldn’t pick a better team to line up with as it looks they are still trying to find themselves on offense.
The defense for Denver is lights out and the secondary makes it especially hard to recommend many of their starters beyond Cam Newton who will be lucky to rack up 250 yds of offense combined and maybe 1-2 TD but points will come at a premium IMO. Stewart is always a gamble but he managed close to 1,000 rush last season. Where he loses steam are 16 Carolina rushing TD between he and the QB but Newton got 10 of them. Stewart is never more than an RB2 option. It might not even be that vs Denver but should Carolina get a small lead, even 13-7 you can be assured Stewart will see a lot of carries down the stretch. Whitaker and Payne are not true threats for touches. Greg Olsen will see 8 or 9 targets, can he produce enough to land in the top 12 week 1? Teddy Ginn is still around, really he is. Most WRs for Carolina should be on your bench.
Final Score: Carolina 17...Denver 12
Cleveland vs Philadelphia -4 (47.5)
I look at the over under here and something is telling Vegas these two teams are going to score a lot of points. Now one team is fielding a rookie QB, the other an injured bill of goods that some folks feel is either ready to roll or one tackle from being out 6-8 weeks again. The Browns have one of the worst starting front 7s in the NFL and then you add a shaky secondary and if Wentz were going to have a good start like a Mariota from 2015 this could be the team to have a coming out party. At the same time my football memories tend to tell a different tale. Odds are not good Wentz comes out and lights it up. Is Philly in full rebuild mode? Their defense is middle of the road, if the offense were good they could challenge in this shaky NFC Easy/East. They likely will need to get Wentz more help at the skill positions but overall Philly is not that bad and their OL is still in the upper half of the league if not higher.
Jordan Mathews had 3x as many targets as Aghalor and Huff last season. Things are different but those are your starting 3 WRs as best we can tell right now. I feel like Philly is a bit fluid in their skill positions, meaning anyone showing a hot hand wins the targets and nobody is untradeable IMHO...they traded Bradford, seems like they are in the mood to stockpile picks and build around Wentz. I feel like Philly when they commit to a plan, go 100% until they are certain that it won’t work out. They were married to Reid until they had to do something, with Chip they figured it out much faster. By as early as 2017 I expect this team to look much different than now. You are rolling the dice with most of the Philly skill position guys until we see a game or two and what the actual offense is trying to run. I hope you have stronger choices to start the season. Phi RBs not a good idea at the moment.
Cleveland on the other hand has a couple interesting options. I’ll start with RG III who I expect to have a good game and also throw an interception at a key moment. I am a Hue Jackson fan and feel like Cleveland could steal this game Week 1 with Philly rolling the rookie out at QB. Jackson knows how to scheme and I think there will be a strong game plan here. Jackson is going to want to show quickly there is a new Sheriff and his name ain’t Reggie Hammond, I expect results as early as week 1, this team is going to pop some folks and despite a rather mediocre at best defense, I expect the Browns to move the football. RG 3 is a good candidate for top 20 Week 1.
Duke Johnson is a guy I will be watching early in the season. He seems like he has learned a lot going into year 2 and there are a few of these guys in the NFL that were drafted in 2015 and had rather slow NFL starts. Duke had the quietest 50+ catch season you have ever seen by a rookie. Josh Gordon is still susp for a few more games and the WRs are leaning on folks like converted QB/WR Terrelle Pryor and rookie Corey Coleman. Crowell is going to start the game and he might have more carries but I think Crowell tops out at 14-15 touches where Duke should see 8-10 carries at a minimum and then another 5-7 targets and whatever he can rack up thru the air. If you drafted Johnson I believe you will like the early returns and get set for a coming out party in 2016. By Week 5 he should be rolling with the 1s.
Final Score: Cleveland 24...Philadelphia 20
Tampa Bay vs Atlanta -3 (47.5)
Julio Jones has had pretty impressive games the last 2 years vs the Bucs, something like 8/120/TD is about the avg over 4 games, this week should be no different. Devonta Freeman had around 100 yds rush/rec vs the Bucs each game last year plus about 15 receptions spread over the 2 games, he’s a good bet to have a nice game Week 1. Both the WR2 and TE spot should be a bench play for now. Sanu is OK but he might take a while to emerge, don’t rush him out there if you drafted him. This also leads me to believe Freeman will see plenty of receptions even if Coleman gets a few more carries this season. Matt Ryan is a good play this week.
For the Bucs, you have a suspect OL and a suspect defense, vital for this offense to show up and take some of the pressure off. No reason to not play Mike Evans and also Vincent Jackson should see plenty of targets as the Bucs try and stay with Atlanta, a tall task for sure. Doug Martin might not have a strong week as Sims is perhaps better suited in what will eventually turn into a pass happy offense to match the Falcons. This game will be different in Bucs Stadium but not in Atlanta Week 1.
Final Score: Atlanta 31...Tampa Bay 21
Cincinnati vs New York +2 (42)
This game should be straightforward for what most owners are looking for. There is no need to over analyze this. Brandon Marshall will see tight coverage from one of the better secondaries but he also will find his points. The floor is likely 6/60 so you better start him unless you have Cooper and Julio in some dynasty league but in redraft he should be a must start no matter the DB across from him. And Decker will be a decent play as well in your flex or WR3 spot. He also has a floor of around 4/50 most weeks so he rarely blanks on you. If Marshall steals all the coverage usually Decker makes them pay. Matt Forte will see plenty of action in the passing game.
AJ Green was hurt in the preseason. Of course he says he is fine but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had just an average vs amazing week. The Bengals have to fill in the blanks for their WR2/3 spots plus Tyler Eifert is likely out. Will Cinci be in a position to run the clock out with Hill for much of the game...not likely in Week 1 @NY so enter who might be the best play on the board for Cinci this week and that is Giovani Bernard. I see 80-100 rush/rec and 4-5 catches, should he score for once he could hit the 20 point plateau in PPR leagues. Jeremy Hill will have some strong weeks, he is likely to see a decent amount of carries but the Jets can move the football and the Bengals will need to show up on offense, their defense isn’t pitching a shutout in this one.
Final Score: New York Jets 20...Cincinnati 17 UPSET!
If you have some injury report info to share or a camp report don't be shy, a twitter feed or beat writer in your area is especially welcome.
Thank you and Cheers everyone!
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