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RBs, WRs, QBs, to Exploit or Avoid: Week 1 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
We have had several heartbreaking losses in the FFA/FBG over the last couple years and one very recently. You feel almost helpless in wanting to assist or do something so I thought a reboot of an old thread idea might be a good way to bring everyone together in honor of those we've lost. My hope is to simply make a few folks chuckle as I make a complete fool of myself trying to predict the unpredictable in week 1. 

I can promise you that at least 50% of the games will not go as planned or how I write them because if I was that good I would be hosting a weekly from an MGM Penthouse on the Strip. And being out of the loop on some stuff makes my advice especially dangerous, I'm more Stugotz than anything these days. If you don't know him, that's Dan LeBatard's ######ed co-host who likes nothing more than to spout off hot takes much to the chagrin of Dan.

You might as well ask this guy for advice vs listening to much I am about to post but in the spirit of the good ole days and also for my friends who still hang out in here, let's have some fun and learn a little form each other although at this point I must say I get the better end of that deal and probably always have. If you have a hot take, be my guest.

I'm not up to speed on a lot of things so take it easy on the old man. I haven't posted much in the player threads, quite frankly there wasn't much to say you couldn't find all over the internet. Somehow though these threads have a way of finding diamonds in the rough. Hopefully most of you have solid options and don't have to squeeze 10 points out of the WR3 in Los Angeles...do they have a viable WR3 there yet? 

I am still working on the SNF plus 2 MNFs but I have the rest done and will post them up for discussion.

WDIS Alert***

Let's do this for those who want to post a couple players that they have to choose from but to make it more fun for everyone. Let me give you an example to help. 

"MOP, I gotz Spencer Ware and LeSean McCoy, only can start one this week. I like Ware because he seems like the sure lead back in KC Week 1 plus a fairly easy match up with the Chargers, should have a field day vs McCoy who I like but is facing the Ravens on the road and Ware seems to have a slightly easier match up." 

-If you can do something like that it makes it more enjoyable for everyone and also gives me a track to run on so I understand your thought process. Otherwise I have to ignore the post because the Mods want that stuff in the WDIS forum, tyvm. 

Carolina vs Denver +3 (41.5)

What a wild opener and not just because it’s a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. Manning has retired, not sure if that’s good or not. Mark Sanchez was brought in to ease the pain and he didn’t make the Final 53. I’m not sure what Denver will be able to do on offense. So much so, hard to predict what the stats are going to look like for Thomas, Sanders, and CJ Anderson. If you feel confident in starting them do understand the road looks a little rocky for now. Carolina has a tough front 7, almost as good as Denver yet they suddenly look vulnerable in the secondary. They couldn’t pick a better team to line up with as it looks they are still trying to find themselves on offense.

The defense for Denver is lights out and the secondary makes it especially hard to recommend many of their starters beyond Cam Newton who will be lucky to rack up 250 yds of offense combined and maybe 1-2 TD but points will come at a premium IMO. Stewart is always a gamble but he managed close to 1,000 rush last season. Where he loses steam are 16 Carolina rushing TD between he and the QB but Newton got 10 of them. Stewart is never more than an RB2 option. It might not even be that vs Denver but should Carolina get a small lead, even 13-7 you can be assured Stewart will see a lot of carries down the stretch. Whitaker and Payne are not true threats for touches. Greg Olsen will see 8 or 9 targets, can he produce enough to land in the top 12 week 1? Teddy Ginn is still around, really he is. Most WRs for Carolina should be on your bench. 

Final Score: Carolina 17...Denver 12

Cleveland vs Philadelphia -4 (47.5)

I look at the over under here and something is telling Vegas these two teams are going to score a lot of points. Now one team is fielding a rookie QB, the other an injured bill of goods that some folks feel is either ready to roll or one tackle from being out 6-8 weeks again. The Browns have one of the worst starting front 7s in the NFL and then you add a shaky secondary and if Wentz were going to have a good start like a Mariota from 2015 this could be the team to have a coming out party. At the same time my football memories tend to tell a different tale. Odds are not good Wentz comes out and lights it up. Is Philly in full rebuild mode? Their defense is middle of the road, if the offense were good they could challenge in this shaky NFC Easy/East. They likely will need to get Wentz more help at the skill positions but overall Philly is not that bad and their OL is still in the upper half of the league if not higher.  

Jordan Mathews had 3x as many targets as Aghalor and Huff last season. Things are different but those are your starting 3 WRs as best we can tell right now. I feel like Philly is a bit fluid in their skill positions, meaning anyone showing a hot hand wins the targets and nobody is untradeable IMHO...they traded Bradford, seems like they are in the mood to stockpile picks and build around Wentz. I feel like Philly when they commit to a plan, go 100% until they are certain that it won’t work out. They were married to Reid until they had to do something, with Chip they figured it out much faster. By as early as 2017 I expect this team to look much different than now. You are rolling the dice with most of the Philly skill position guys until we see a game or two and what the actual offense is trying to run. I hope you have stronger choices to start the season. Phi RBs not a good idea at the moment.

Cleveland on the other hand has a couple interesting options. I’ll start with RG III who I expect to have a good game and also throw an interception at a key moment. I am a Hue Jackson fan and feel like Cleveland could steal this game Week 1 with Philly rolling the rookie out at QB. Jackson knows how to scheme and I think there will be a strong game plan here. Jackson is going to want to show quickly there is a new Sheriff and his name ain’t Reggie Hammond, I expect results as early as week 1, this team is going to pop some folks and despite a rather mediocre at best defense, I expect the Browns to move the football. RG 3 is a good candidate for top 20 Week 1.

Duke Johnson is a guy I will be watching early in the season. He seems like he has learned a lot going into year 2 and there are a few of these guys in the NFL that were drafted in 2015 and had rather slow NFL starts. Duke had the quietest 50+ catch season you have ever seen by a rookie. Josh Gordon is still susp for a few more games and the WRs are leaning on folks like converted QB/WR Terrelle Pryor and rookie Corey Coleman. Crowell is going to start the game and he might have more carries but I think Crowell tops out at 14-15 touches where Duke should see 8-10 carries at a minimum and then another 5-7 targets and whatever he can rack up thru the air. If you drafted Johnson I believe you will like the early returns and get set for a coming out party in 2016. By Week 5 he should be rolling with the 1s.

Final Score: Cleveland 24...Philadelphia 20

Tampa Bay vs Atlanta -3 (47.5)

Julio Jones has had pretty impressive games the last 2 years vs the Bucs, something like 8/120/TD is about the avg over 4 games, this week should be no different. Devonta Freeman had around 100 yds rush/rec vs the Bucs each game last year plus about 15 receptions spread over the 2 games, he’s a good bet to have a nice game Week 1. Both the WR2 and TE spot should be a bench play for now. Sanu is OK but he might take a while to emerge, don’t rush him out there if you drafted him. This also leads me to believe Freeman will see plenty of receptions even if Coleman gets a few more carries this season. Matt Ryan is a good play this week.

For the Bucs, you have a suspect OL and a suspect defense, vital for this offense to show up and take some of the pressure off. No reason to not play Mike Evans and also Vincent Jackson should see plenty of targets as the Bucs try and stay with Atlanta, a tall task for sure. Doug Martin might not have a strong week as Sims is perhaps better suited in what will eventually turn into a pass happy offense to match the Falcons. This game will be different in Bucs Stadium but not in Atlanta Week 1.

Final Score: Atlanta 31...Tampa Bay 21

Cincinnati vs New York +2 (42)

This game should be straightforward for what most owners are looking for. There is no need to over analyze this. Brandon Marshall will see tight coverage from one of the better secondaries but he also will find his points. The floor is likely 6/60 so you better start him unless you have Cooper and Julio in some dynasty league but in redraft he should be a must start no matter the DB across from him. And Decker will be a decent play as well in your flex or WR3 spot. He also has a floor of around 4/50 most weeks so he rarely blanks on you. If Marshall steals all the coverage usually Decker makes them pay. Matt Forte will see plenty of action in the passing game.

AJ Green was hurt in the preseason. Of course he says he is fine but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had just an average vs amazing week. The Bengals have to fill in the blanks for their WR2/3 spots plus Tyler Eifert is likely out. Will Cinci be in a position to run the clock out with Hill for much of the game...not likely in Week 1 @NY so enter who might be the best play on the board for Cinci this week and that is Giovani Bernard. I see 80-100 rush/rec and 4-5 catches, should he score for once he could hit the 20 point plateau in PPR leagues. Jeremy Hill will have some strong weeks, he is likely to see a decent amount of carries but the Jets can move the football and the Bengals will need to show up on offense, their defense isn’t pitching a shutout in this one.

Final Score: New York Jets 20...Cincinnati 17 UPSET!

If you have some injury report info to share or a camp report don't be shy, a twitter feed or beat writer in your area is especially welcome. 

Thank you and Cheers everyone!

:banned:

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Minnesota at Tennessee +2.5 (41.5)

Incredible and bold move by the Vikings to not throw the towel in. I think it’s a great move and gives the team hope for now that it can succeed or compete for a playoff spot. Maybe they wheel and deal once the season starts but for now they show a lot of confidence in the current coach and players, I commend them for making the move and not accepting a throwaway season. I would still play ADP and Diggs this week, much past that at the skill position spots I would leave alone. I would not play Bradford and I do not expect the Vikings to throw the ball a lot more than they did last season. Defense and pound the football will be their recipe for winning games.

The Titans have been shuffling guys in and out, Mariota looks like the real deal and you can see they are trying to build a solid ground game behind him while he grows the next 2-3 years. The OL has been improved and finally look solid. That has opened a lot of holes in the preseason for Murray and Henry, both have found success. Murray didn’t even see the field in Week 4 of the preseason, Henry did so despite those owner’s best efforts and also rosary bead prayers for Murray to either fumble his way or big toe injury himself out of their way....unless he really does go down I see no reason these two backs won’t split time. Henry is 6-3/250, he’s like Brandon Jacobs except he is a much better version or simply better overall by a lot. But it’s not going to be the Derrick Henry show for a little while. I imagine at some point it will be, but let’s not get the anointing oils out just yet. I expect to see both Murray and Henry most weeks and it will drive owners nuts.

Any idea who the WR is here? Sharpe is now listed as the WR1 or WR1/1a with Mathews and Kendall Wright has eased back into the WR3/4 role here. In late drafts I like Sharpe a lot and if he went undrafted in early July leagues, you can be sure he will be a WW pick up come week 1. The Vikings will play strong defense and I don’t anticipate the Titans looking as good as I expect they will vs teams such as Jax/Indy/Hou, those teams just are not as good on defense as what they are likely to see in Week 1.

Final Score: Minnesota 20...Tennessee 17  

Oakland vs New Orleans -1 (51)

If you believe everything you read in the off season, Oakland now has a strong OL and also is poised to challenge for the AFC West crown in 2016. I am a believer in much of the Oakland hype but I also have mixed reviews of Carr and while I think he should make progress in 2016, I also thought he should have done a little better at times last year. Still, this place has been topsy turvy for so long, finally some stability and so I am still optimistic on Carr this year.

Carr should see a soft defense and find Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree as they try and match the Saints high powered offense. Maybe you don’t run Carr out week 1 if you have a slightly better option but bombs away with Cooper and Crabtree can find the top 30 this week as well. Latavius Murray is still the starter here. Washington the heralded rookie didn’t do that much to make me think Murray is losing his job in the 1st month. Murray should end up with 75 yds and a better than avg chance of scoring, Cooper is more in the 100/TD range, perhaps more if a shootout takes place.

For the Saints, Cooks is a shoe in for WR2 spot on your roster. Coleman and Snead are both going to see action, the real question is how much Fleener is going to see in terms of targets. He’s not a great run blocker so if he is on the field it’s to catch footballs. I would hold back most Saints WRs after Brandin Cooks until you can see who is getting the most targets. Snead is listed as the WR3 behind Coleman to my knowledge. Rookie Michael Thomas is looming in the 4 hole but he is going to watch for a while IMO. Lot of youth at WR across the board.

Final Score: New Orleans 27...Oakland 24

San Diego at Kansas City -7 (44)

This is a mismatch of different sized proportions, Reid has McCoy’s offense figured out pretty good. The Chargers scored a FG in each game last year. I feel like San Diego is a mess right now from the front office down to the field. I hope they get it straightened out quickly but it won’t happen week 1. I wouldn’t expect a lot out of them although I am high on Melvin Gordon and his prospects this year as another 2015 subpar rookie who should show marked improvement this year. I’m sure most of you are going to start Keenan Allen and rightly so but I wouldn’t take a huge position on the Chargers week 1. Kansas City should seize control early and then nurse a 2 TD lead in the 2nd half.

If you haven’t heard it looks like Charles might not suit up Week 1. Folks it’s possible the Chiefs feel like they can win this game anyways without him so why rush him back, but then the question becomes well what about week 2 and 3 and 4 and so on and so forth...this is going to be a split or shared time. It doesn’t look like the Chiefs want Charles anything other than healthy and rested when they close in on the playoffs. I’m simply saying I think Charles is going to have a lot more 15/70 stat lines than people realize with fewer TD opps.

[SIZE=14.6667px]Spencer Ware[/SIZE][SIZE=14.666666666666666px] is about 230+ lbs and is like a bowling ball, he also has developed a knack for catching the football and seems poised to gain a larger role. KC might actually have 2 starting RBs when Charles returns. Ware is not tall but he is thick and breaks tackles. Ware had a TD every 12 times he carried the ball in 2016, how many touches will he have on Sunday?[/SIZE]

Ware should be a top5 back week 1...there you go. Maclin and Kelce will be their usual self, it’s Andy Reid, there’s not much to worry about, those guys are likely the 2 who see the most targets in his offense, embrace it. Alex Smith likely to have a decent day but San Diego has a sneaky secondary and Smith will play it close to the vest because the running game should be fine even with no Charles.

Final Score: Kansas City 27...San Diego 17 , Chargers find some garbage time points.

Buffalo at Baltimore -3 (44)

I was high on LeSean McCoy entering the season and while the Ravens are always coached up and usually are not a terrible run defense, this week should show the long decay that has taken place there. I don’t sweat McCoy week 1 and I think he will start paying dividends immediately. Taylor is not a great QB but he can be efficient and Sammy Watkins plus Charles Clay who is flying so far under the radar he needs a ramp just to wheel out and up to the takeoff runway. I feel pretty strong that Buffalo is going to win this football game. I don’t see a lot to fear from the Ravens, not yet anyways. Buffalo +3 is looking juicy folks.

The Ravens, there will be 16 weeks to rip this offense a new one, instead I would like to focus your attention to one player I think might be way under the radar and has a skill set to match the QB for once. Mike Wallace could be a steal this season. Flacco doesn’t have the best arm but he can air it out and that has been proven. Wallace straight line speed might just be what the doctor ordered. Wallace somehow has not had over 12 ypc since his 1st 3 seasons when he was hooking up with BB in Pittsburgh. I think we could see a throwback to some of that. He has been running 10 yard outs in Miami and Minnesota, not his best use of skills.

Who is running the ball in Baltimore? Is Steve Smith back? Now what at TE? Is Aiken the real stud to have at WR here? Find out the answers to these questions as you should have most of them on the bench or ready to trade on waivers before long. There is good and bad in the NFL when it comes to offense, not sure how you could see Baltimore as an oasis of FF gold at the moment. It will sort itself out as the season unfolds.

Final Score: Buffalo 24...Baltimore 17

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Chicago at Houston -6 (44.5)

The Texans are poised to explode. They have a hot rookie at WR pushing guys in their 2nd and 3rd year ahead of him topped off with a stud in DeAndre Hopkins who is one of the top 5 at his position depending on who you ask. They brought over a QB who the World Champs let slip away. You can argue Brock is average but I believe most of what is around him is either on pace with Denver’s offense he left behind or in some cases like at RB he might be pairing with even greater talent.

Hopkins is a must start and I would hold my horses on Fuller until he is getting a steady diet of targets, that might be a couple weeks. TE is pretty moot on this team so I expect 2-3 WRs to flourish. Some of the guys not named Hopkins and Fuller have looked Strong in the preseason.

Lamar Miller is set to have a career year. Expect top 5 to top 10 numbers most weeks. He might not hit them every week but he is a candidate to have big weeks this year. My only concern is recent OL injuries might set them back, hopefully they can overcome those because this offense is loaded at the skill spots.

The Bears made a recent OL pick up, that’s great and will help long term for the season but that doesn’t suddenly make them a juggernaut on offense. They have looked horrible in the preseason and Gase has left so Cutler is in new hands. I understand there are playmakers on this offense especially at WR with Alshon but I’m not sure you can really project numbers here. I do think Houston is going to open a can of something on offense so they will be playing from behind so yes yes yes make sure you have their top WR out there because even if he is bottled up early he should find success later when the game is in hand. Sorry but just calling it like I see it.

Final Score: Houston 38...Chicago 17

Green Bay at Jacksonville +5 (48)

Times are changing in Jax, they have a franchise QB who can throw the rock and they have a duo at WR that is starting to remind me of a pair of Marks Bros but these are the Allen Bros, clearly one of them is a little better than the other but both are going to have lots of targets in this offense. The tandem at RB in Jax offers both power and elusiveness, Yeldon can catch the ball which helps in the passing games on 3rd down. Ivory seems to have health issues every year but while healthy he can move the pile on short yardage. Jags must show improvement in that front 7, are they up for the challenge Week 1?

Aaron Rodgers is a HoF QB and on Sunday he will hopefully have his weapons back and running full speed with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. I think the timing will be a little hit n miss for them and Rodgers on the road in September, the ball is going to be slippery from the humidity and I question how much fun GB will be having in the 3rd and 4th Q of a 1:00 game in Jacksonville with very little air or breeze blowing thru…

Start all 4 WRs, Jordy, Cobb, the Allen Bros, Eddie Lacy should have a strong showing, Rodgers without question but Blake Bortles should be on your potential start list. Yeldon will see a few receptions to go with his 75 total yards we will say, double digit PPR flex type play.

Final Score: Jacksonville 27...Green Bay 24, Upset!

New York Giants at Dallas Pk’Em (46)

I love the Prescott story so in some way I am rooting for Dez and Elliott to do well with or without Romo. I think Prescott is going to become a story. He does open at home Week 1 but the Giants seem to have Dallas’ number even at AT&T where New York of course won the first NFL game ever there.

I would gingerly start both Dez and Elliott, you drafted them high and for better or worse you are gonna roll with whatever happens at QB right now. I just am not expecting astronomical numbers right now although I expect the offense to run smoother than last year when Romo was absent. Prescott is going to have some growing pains and you cannot expect it to look so easy all the time.

Eli and ODB should be must starts. The rest is going to be dependent on your team. I would like to watch Victor Cruz for a couple weeks before I rush to start him. RB? Jennings is your horse for now.

Final Score: New York Giants 24...Dallas 20

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Detroit at Indianapolis -4 (50)

This game started at Indy laying a TD and has moved a little. I don’t believe either team has a dominant defense or an OL that can just impose it’s will. Both teams have decent QBs, speed at WR and since neither team has a dominant defense this game has a chance to be high scoring even if we have some new names.

I would start Hilton and Moncrief for Indy, Dorsett if you are feeling frisky but his targets have been fewer than the other two, will be interesting to see the target distribution and when they come as the weeks unfold. I don’t profess to know or have better knowledge of the situation but on the surface I feel like Hilton is the hand down clear winner here. After that is a little more guessing for me.

Looks like Golden Tate lines up wide left, Boldin will go wide right and be a 10 yard in and out guy, his best days are behind him and he offers little speed, again hands are his key now and I think he will be fine in this offense but he isn’t stretching the field. Marvin Jones will be the slot guy and I think he will find success there, just how much and how fast it happens is a mystery right now. Abdullah is the RB1 it appears and also offers good hands for the passing game. Another guy drafted in 2015 who disappointed as a rookie but should see a lot of improvement in 2016.

Final Score: Detroit 24...Indy 21

Miami at Seattle -10.5 (44)

When a team brings shame to the NFL like Miami has in 2013 with Martin/Incognito, in 2014 their 1st round pick was suspended for a year, in 2015 they hadn’t fired the coach who oversaw the mess in 2013 and 2014 so they got the results of that creation blowing up in their face by Week 3 or 4, they end up promoting the TE coach to Head Coach and the year went on to be a disaster of sorts. What does the NFL do to repay the Dolphins? Road games @Sea and @NE to open the season after bowing to Goodell’s wishes that we fix our stadium to host Super Bowls.

-This/That would be the Art Bell portion of the show…

The WRs for Seattle seem to be fluid right now. It feels like a couple of them could have better weeks but then it could shift another way towards the RBs. I wouldn’t bank on a Seattle WR for more than an WR3 role or flex option. Rawls(SP Pointed out he isn't 100%) would appear to be their bellcow at RB but ultimately they are going to use a mix to keep guys fresh. Lynch is gone and those will be big shoes to fill. Wilson can always run them in if they can’t find a RB to do it the way they want. Outside of Wilson you can’t be sure of anything at the moment. Looks like Jimmy Graham is not 100% yet and might not be for a while even when he starts.

The Phins are going to roll with Foster as the RB1, that means 10-12 carries and probably 4-5 receptions in the opener. I expect about 10 targets for Landry, 7-8 for Stills, a handful or less for Parker in the opener. I base it on preseason observations and camp notes. Parker can however score a lot of points with fewer touches. He could have 3/60/TD on 4 targets, Stills might have 5/60 on 7-8 targets, who had the better game? Those are going to be the questions for Phins owners.

Fact is Miami is sporting a rookie with no experience at DB/Corner, good luck with that.

Final Score: Seattle 30...Miami 17

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
Hey MOP thanks for starting this thread.  :thumbup:

For the Vikings vs Titans game it seems remiss to not mention Delanie Walker who led their team in targets and receptions last season and might do so again. With Mularkey in charge I think more 2 TE and 1 TE 1 FB formations will be used so I am not sure they will use 3 WR sets that much.

Because the Titans are likely to try to run the ball a lot the Vikings have kept 7 linebackers for the first game when I could see them cutting this number to six, as most of the time they will only be playing two of them. Some play special teams of course, but I feel the Vikings kept an extra LB because of this match up. If the Vikings do use 3 LB defensive packages frequently, this could mean Chad Greenway, Audie Cole and/or Kentrell Brothers will play a lot of snaps. Greenway especially is a liability in pass coverage and this is a match up that I think the Titans will try to exploit with Walker as much as they can. The Vikings may use man coverage or assign Barr or Kenricks to Walker which is a match up the Vikings have a better chance with, but the LB will no doubt be peeking at the RB a bit more and Walker should find himself open at times.

I think the Vikings defensive backs will match up pretty well against the Titans WR, so I see Walker as the best bet to have a good game out of their receiving options.

I hope the Vikings are up to the task of stopping the run, as that will be critical for them to win this game. The Vikings defense has greatly improved the last two seasons under HC Zimmer, but their main weakness has been against the run more than the pass. While that has been a point of emphasis for improvement for the Vikings defense this offseason, remains to be seen if they are up to the task. They will surely be tested by the two quality RBs of the Titans.

As far as the Titans defense against the Vikings, they get a break because the Vikings will start Shaun Hill this game. Hill is not very good so the offense will likely lean on Peterson and be somewhat one dimensional. If Hill actually manages to play well and make some throws I think this will turn into an easy win for the Vikings, but if Hill plays how I expect him to (not good) this game may turn into a nail biter or possible loss for the Vikings, especially if Hill gifts the defense interceptions.

Titans players to start- Murray, Walker.

Vikings players to start - Peterson, Diggs.

All of the other players for both sides I would be looking for better options.

I can understand people being tempted to start Henry and I understand that point of view. As a Vikings fan Henry scares me a bit. But as this is the first game I expect Henrys playing time to be limited. Or maybe I am just hoping that is the case. Not sure which.

 

AtomicDogg97

Footballguy
The Cleveland Browns run defense might be historically bad. At the very least, it will be worst in the league this year.

Ryan Matthews should not be in red he should be in green.

 

pinkham13

Footballguy
Great kickoff to the season! Havent been around these parts in a dozen years. Good to see some familiar posters!

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Hey MOP thanks for starting this thread.  :thumbup:

For the Vikings vs Titans game it seems remiss to not mention Delanie Walker who led their team in targets and receptions last season and might do so again. With Mularkey in charge I think more 2 TE and 1 TE 1 FB formations will be used so I am not sure they will use 3 WR sets that much.

Because the Titans are likely to try to run the ball a lot the Vikings have kept 7 linebackers for the first game when I could see them cutting this number to six, as most of the time they will only be playing two of them. Some play special teams of course, but I feel the Vikings kept an extra LB because of this match up. If the Vikings do use 3 LB defensive packages frequently, this could mean Chad Greenway, Audie Cole and/or Kentrell Brothers will play a lot of snaps. Greenway especially is a liability in pass coverage and this is a match up that I think the Titans will try to exploit with Walker as much as they can. The Vikings may use man coverage or assign Barr or Kenricks to Walker which is a match up the Vikings have a better chance with, but the LB will no doubt be peeking at the RB a bit more and Walker should find himself open at times.

I think the Vikings defensive backs will match up pretty well against the Titans WR, so I see Walker as the best bet to have a good game out of their receiving options.

I hope the Vikings are up to the task of stopping the run, as that will be critical for them to win this game. The Vikings defense has greatly improved the last two seasons under HC Zimmer, but their main weakness has been against the run more than the pass. While that has been a point of emphasis for improvement for the Vikings defense this offseason, remains to be seen if they are up to the task. They will surely be tested by the two quality RBs of the Titans.

As far as the Titans defense against the Vikings, they get a break because the Vikings will start Shaun Hill this game. Hill is not very good so the offense will likely lean on Peterson and be somewhat one dimensional. If Hill actually manages to play well and make some throws I think this will turn into an easy win for the Vikings, but if Hill plays how I expect him to (not good) this game may turn into a nail biter or possible loss for the Vikings, especially if Hill gifts the defense interceptions.

Titans players to start- Murray, Walker.

Vikings players to start - Peterson, Diggs.

All of the other players for both sides I would be looking for better options.

I can understand people being tempted to start Henry and I understand that point of view. As a Vikings fan Henry scares me a bit. But as this is the first game I expect Henrys playing time to be limited. Or maybe I am just hoping that is the case. Not sure which.
Great post, forgot about the TE there. Good insight into the Titans and Vikes

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
The Cleveland Browns run defense might be historically bad. At the very least, it will be worst in the league this year.

Ryan Matthews should not be in red he should be in green.
Alright, give us a projection to work with. You may be on to something here...I did say Cleveland has one of the worst front 7 so I agree with you.

 

Bojang0301

Omar4Heisman
I don't understand the love for Sharpe over Rishard Matthews. I get Sharpe is the hip thing right now but Matthews is a good veteran outlet for Mariota who was producing at a WR2 clip before getting hurt last year in Miami. He was a sneaky late round pick and I also think he is a sneaky play for the week.

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I don't understand the love for Sharpe over Rishard Matthews. I get Sharpe is the hip thing right now but Matthews is a good veteran outlet for Mariota who was producing at a WR2 clip before getting hurt last year in Miami. He was a sneaky late round pick and I also think he is a sneaky play for the week.
Nothing is wrong with any of the first 2-3 TN WRs, but we don't know what the real targets are going to be just yet. The more Sharpe reels in and makes plays not just catches and scoots out of bounds but turns 10 and 20 yard plays into more, he is going to see more targets, any WR would in that scenario. He is a talented rookie and we don't know his limits. Within reason we kind of know what Mathews brings to the table. He's solid but not special. 

Some feel Sharpe is special...we have to wait and see. 

 
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pinkham13

Footballguy
The Cleveland Browns run defense might be historically bad. At the very least, it will be worst in the league this year.

Ryan Matthews should not be in red he should be in green.
I had Matthews in the green until Bradford was traded. With a questionable offense and Ryans penchant for injuries I wouldnt be too quick to start him despite the good matchup. Fortunately, I have better options.

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Why do you expect Duke to beat out Crowell?
He broke records at Miami, he has some talent. I believe his ability to catch is going to make him more of a dual threat. 

Duke more likely to be a Bernard type, well rounded. 

 
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BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I have four bad options to choose from:

  1. Michael Thomas v. OAK
  2. Will Fuller v. CHI
  3. Devin Funchess @ DEN
  4. Eli Rogers @ WAS
We can talk about my draft screwups some other time.

Thoughts: Thomas was hyped early by Brees and Payton, but we've heard that one before. Talk is cheap in NOLA. Snead may be just an average talent but he's still the starter, and Thomas didn't really shine in the PS. Fuller blew by Strong during PS, who had very good reports throughout OTAs and early TC. Will definitely stretch the field, but it's a run first team. Seems like [Braxton] Miller will be in the mix as well, so to me it's Hopkins and a WRBC situation - expecting inconsistency from all three of the "other" WRs in Houston. Funchess is a popular pick to breakout. The 9 targets in the first half of the dress rehearsal plus Benjamin's 35 snap count limit are very encouraging. But starting off the FF season by putting your WR3 in versus the Broncos in what should be a low scoring game seems like a bad idea. Rogers unexpectedly passed Coates during PS as the de facto WR3 on the Steelers. He should see a ton of snaps from the slot and he reportedly has a similar skillset to top dog AB. But again, do I really want to start off the season with a 3-35-0 line?

Feel free to chime in, but I think I'll ask my 8 y.o. daughter and just roll with whatever she picks. She hates sports and especially football, but I'm pretty sure she's got as much chance as you and I trying to figure out which of these four should get the nod.

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
MOP,  Rawls, Crowell, or Foster in standard?
MOP definitely, that guy rolls with the 1s  :D

Why don't you tell me why you like which guy better? Rawls isn't 100%, we seem to have uncovered that. Crowell...I like Duke more. Foster? He is likely to see the field and Miami will be throwing the ball a lot. 

Fostr is starting with little to eat into his touches other than snap count, I'm inclined to believe he gathers the most of this trio. 

 

need2know

Footballguy
Thanks for the writeup mop.

You don't mention saints rbs at all.  Ingram prob going to be nice vs oak.

Pick 2 of 3.  

Ware vs sd

Ingram vs oak

L. Murray @ no

 

jbalicki10

Footballguy
Damn nice writeup! Keep up the good work!

You got me thinking of Bortles....  I have to choose Bortles vs Stafford....  6pts per TD.   Any ideas?

 

ldizzle

Footballguy
This isn't a who do I start thread

edit: and thanks mop love these every year

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Let's do this for those who want to post 2-3-4 players that they have to choose to start to make it more fun for everyone. Let me give you an example to help. 

"MOP, I gotz Spencer Ware and LeSean McCoy, only can start one this week. I like Ware because he seems like the sure lead back in KC Week 1 plus a fairly easy match up with the Chargers, should have a field day vs McCoy who I like but is facing the Ravens on the road and Ware seems to have a slightly easier match up." 

-If you can do something like that it makes it more enjoyable for everyone and also gives me a track to run on so I understand your thought process. 

Thank you so much for all the kind words, I might post this up in the OP to remind folks how we try and roll in the SP. 

 
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BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Let's do this for those who want to post 2-3-4 players that they have to choose to start to make it more fun for everyone. Let me give you an example to help. 

"MOP, I gotz Spencer Ware and LeSean McCoy, only can start one this week. I like Ware because he seems like the sure lead back in KC Week 1 plus a fairly easy match up with the Chargers, should have a field day vs McCoy who I like but is facing the Ravens on the road and Ware seems to have a slightly easier match up." 

-If you can do something like that it makes it mroe enjoyable for everyone and also gives me a track to run on so I understand your thought process. 

Thank you so much for all the kind words, I might post this up in the OP to remind folks how we try and roll in the SP. 
Yo

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I have four bad options to choose from:

  1. Michael Thomas v. OAK
  2. Will Fuller v. CHI
  3. Devin Funchess @ DEN
  4. Eli Rogers @ WAS
We can talk about my draft screwups some other time.

Thoughts: Thomas was hyped early by Brees and Payton, but we've heard that one before. Talk is cheap in NOLA. Snead may be just an average talent but he's still the starter, and Thomas didn't really shine in the PS. Fuller blew by Strong during PS, who had very good reports throughout OTAs and early TC. Will definitely stretch the field, but it's a run first team. Seems like [Braxton] Miller will be in the mix as well, so to me it's Hopkins and a WRBC situation - expecting inconsistency from all three of the "other" WRs in Houston. Funchess is a popular pick to breakout. The 9 targets in the first half of the dress rehearsal plus Benjamin's 35 snap count limit are very encouraging. But starting off the FF season by putting your WR3 in versus the Broncos in what should be a low scoring game seems like a bad idea. Rogers unexpectedly passed Coates during PS as the de facto WR3 on the Steelers. He should see a ton of snaps from the slot and he reportedly has a similar skillset to top dog AB. But again, do I really want to start off the season with a 3-35-0 line?

Feel free to chime in, but I think I'll ask my 8 y.o. daughter and just roll with whatever she picks. She hates sports and especially football, but I'm pretty sure she's got as much chance as you and I trying to figure out which of these four should get the nod.
1s of all, ty for posting how you do this. We don't need to entire roster, in fact we focused on choices a lot of dynasty owners who have to play younger talent will face this weekend.  

I do not like Car WRs so  would cross that off...I might roll the dice on Fuller if you have solid production out of your WR2/3 spots, i assume this is either a flex or WR3/4 option, if so I would just see what Fuller is all about but to my knowledge he is not starting. Doesn't mean he won't have the 2nd most targets after Hopkins. I'm taking the Fuller plunge from this list.

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
1s of all, ty for posting how you do this. We don't need to entire roster, in fact we focused on choices a lot of dynasty owners who have to play younger talent will face this weekend.  

I do not like Car WRs so  would cross that off...I might roll the dice on Fuller if you have solid production out of your WR2/3 spots, i assume this is either a flex or WR3/4 option, if so I would just see what Fuller is all about but to my knowledge he is not starting. Doesn't mean he won't have the 2nd most targets after Hopkins. I'm taking the Fuller plunge from this list.
Thanks.

No, those are redraft WRs. I. Don't. Know. What. I. Was. Thinking. Yes I was sober. I digress...

FWIW - Fuller won the job & is starting Week 1. Which doesn't preclude the other two from rotating or joining him in 3-WR sets. I like your thought process, but I forgot to mention who I drafted in the first round. My first and eighteenth rounders both catch passes from Osweiler.

It's going to be a long season, even after Gordon comes off suspension. Hate my team.

 
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Dismattle

Footballguy
Ya know I can read stuff like this http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/64764/478/the-nfl-week-1-worksheet

But MOP your posts looks legit :thanks:

For instance you have Cam in the green..

Right on   I believe the Panthers are comming to take care of business 

imho Sieman fans gain nothing watching this game  (Luke w/ a pick six type action)

But bottom line, we all know SB teams will get their opponents best game 

It looks like ya forgot Olsen   However if Im considering the benching of Olsen?  

Id say Im FF challenged 

Thank-you for taking the time to write down your thoughts on the upcoming games..

I mean even if it just helps to consider a different angle for some?  Id say it helps

Bottom-line   This other "Guru" thinks most of my players are busts, like that helps in some way   :confused:

Its nice to think I got a chance!  :2cents:

p.s. Please guys, if you find some small bit of info by MOP posted (### u me 'd) incorrectly?

Try to understand it is but just a brush-stroke on a masterpiece

This is a one of a kind thread!

 

gabes1919

Footballguy
What are your thoughts on Jennings vs. Bernard?

I lean very heavily towards Jennings in this match up. The Cowboys defense should be poopy and while Vereen is obviously a great 3rd down RB, Jennings has shown the ability to catch out of the back field. He's also shown RB1 ability when he is given the touches and the long leash, they'll give Vereen touches but they don't HAVE to take Jennings off the field just because of situation.

Bernard on the other hand has a really tough match up in terms of running but should be given a ton of work as a pass catcher. I don't think he has the same upside but he feels like he has a safer floor. Against the Jets and with Hill there, I don't like his odds of scoring.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Damn nice writeup! Keep up the good work!

You got me thinking of Bortles....  I have to choose Bortles vs Stafford....  6pts per TD.   Any ideas?
Both Bortles and Stafford should have solid weeks, Stafford is down a major weapon and Bortles can be a little up and down. 

Bortles at home...His last 4 games in 2016 he avg close to 275/2TD per game, would be comfortable with either though. 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
What are your thoughts on Jennings vs. Bernard?

I lean very heavily towards Jennings in this match up. The Cowboys defense should be poopy and while Vereen is obviously a great 3rd down RB, Jennings has shown the ability to catch out of the back field. He's also shown RB1 ability when he is given the touches and the long leash, they'll give Vereen touches but they don't HAVE to take Jennings off the field just because of situation.

Bernard on the other hand has a really tough match up in terms of running but should be given a ton of work as a pass catcher. I don't think he has the same upside but he feels like he has a safer floor. Against the Jets and with Hill there, I don't like his odds of scoring.
Jennings is hitting the top 15 on some site in terms of Week 1 projections. 

Vereen is running about 30-35 depending on the site. You are suggesting Vereen lands ahead of Jennings this week? That would be a bolder prediction but certainly worth a look, it would only be because of reception plus combined yds because I think Jennings will get more carries. 

Bernard by default IMO will have a strong game this week. I do understand the challenge the Jets defense will be. 

Cin-NY has a chance to be a defensive struggle, the more we talk about it in this thread I am getting more nervous about all of them. Still, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, these guys are studs. 

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Yes sir, I have a few choice words for those Patriots, not often you get to write about how bad they will be run out of the building. Burning Man 2.0!
I am pretty sure over the years you have picked against them way more frequently than you have picked them to win.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
@ImTheScientist Thoughts on Seattle offense and the inexperience at DB for Miami plus Maxwell returning to Seattle? 

I fell confident Wilson is going to produce top 5 this week, will any of the WRs sneak into the top 10? top 20?

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Before I write the NE/AZ game, I want to share with you what I wrote about New England in a thread I was going to do a couple weeks ago but never got past the AFC, it was only half done like most of my work.

New England Patriots (12-4 in 2015)

OL has already been hit with some pretty bad news as it looks like Sebastian Vollmer at RT could miss the entire 2016 season, that is bad news for Brady in the passing game when he returns and certainly not good for a running game that ranked 30th last season.

QB: Brady will finally serve his month long suspension and I couldn’t be happier although he should have been banned from the Super Bowl he won, these 4 games are simply a perm record of the cheating that goes on with this team. Just keepin it real and he will tear the league up for a while when he returns. Jimmy G might have a hard time standing upright as the season unfolds, we’ll see. I won’t be surprised if QB No 3 is starting the week before Brady is set to return...we’ll see if I’m right.

RB: Dion Lewis out until about midway thru the season and if you’re smart you just don’t touch him for now. Hype for 2 years strong and the guy cannot stay on the field, Pats are in trouble.

Blount is not a feature back but can eat up clock with the lead. He only started about 8 games last season and racked up 700+ rushing yards. He is a bye week filler for most.

James White is interesting as a pass catching RB but he only had 8 carries last year? Boulden could see action if Blount goes down for a period of time. White also is likely to catch a good number of balls, how many and for 10 yds a clip plus TDs? Might be a lot to ask.

TE: I turn to the TEs first here because it would seem they have the most talent, Gronk will go in the 1st, no Brady for a decent chunk of the season could frustrate owners who draft him in the middle of the 1st. I also have interest in Bennett but am also tempering those expectations. Bennett is solid but he ‘s not magic. I wouldn’t reach for him and assume you have the same thing from a few seasons back with W106228.  

WR: You have to assume Julian Edelman will be ready and back to his old self. 151 and 134 targets in 2013 and 2014, brady loves this guy. I also understand he is approaching 30 and not truly built for the grind of the NFL, he might not be able to stay healthy once again which will open the door for a number of players but I have one in mind that did well this past preseason game and IMO the Pats are going to use Chris Hogan. He is now No 3 on the depth charts and he can play Amendola’s roll who is on the PUP still I think. Anyone who grabbed this guy in the later rounds is going to prosper IMHO. I see Hogan in the 800 yard range and a handful or more TDs, could be a lot higher once Brady returns.

Intangibles: Hard to point to a tough schedule but I will say there is a chance under Jimmy G they start off slow @Ari, MIA, HOU, BUF...yeah 3 of the 4 are home for the Pats but these teams all have playoff aspirations whether true or not...OK Miami not so much but they play NE tough.

I’m not overly excited about a lot of the offense and I do think Brady could find problems with a damaged OL. I like the upside of Hogan and would target him for great value in the draft although now his stock will rise a bit. RBs are shaky and there is plenty of good ones to find on other teams right now. Brady, Gronk, Edelman/Hogan, RB?, Bennett in that order right now.

New England at Arizona -6 (47)

Belichick praised the Arizona Cardinals this week and rightly he should. I don't think Jedi mind tricks will lull the Cards into thinking they have this one in the bag which means Arians will have them way prepared and IMO means they actually will have this game in the bag by the middle of the 3rd Q. This is a statement game for the Cards with or without Brady on the other side. Sure, it's not a very big statement to beat a non Brady Pats team, I understand but the Cards are on a short list of SB contenders, NE would be on one for the AFC, this game matters.

I wouldn't start very many Patriots, I don't see a lot of light at the end of the tunnel. Their RB1 is down, Their QB1 is down, Their WR1...who is that again at the moment? Too many questions, I'll pass. List anyone you want, sure you gotta start Gronk but I might pass on the 2 TE system until Brady is at the controls. I like Chris Hogan as the rogue Marvel Superhero here until the smoke clears. The Patriots are flying in on a plane with both wings on fire, that's not good. 

Arizona...I'm not all in on David Johnson just yet. I think he can do well but they use a mix of backs at times, I think DJ owners could get frustrated when things are not going their way. There has to be risk attached to him, otherwise he should be going RB1 since he plays in a much more uptempo offense than say Todd Gurley. I think he will show a lot of flashes but I don't think he going to be the RB1 Week 1. I'm going to keep an open mind, I haven't a dog in the fight at the moment. 

2 of the yes 4 AZ WRs will have quality games...which 2 of them? I'll let you all discuss this but I still think target distribution is a little jumbled right now. I wouldn't hesitate to start Floyd, Fitz, or Brown, I'm simply saying that it's likely 1 of them flops Week 1 while the other two profit. 

Final Score: Arizona 31...New England 13, it might not even be that close towards the end.  

 

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