RE DRAFT the First Round (1 Viewer)

[Team Legacy]

1 pt per 10 yards, 1 pt per recept, 6 pt per TD - 13 WEEK REGULAR SEASON - to make the playoffs

1.1 LaDanian Tomlinson, RB

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.10

1.11

1.12

I'll start...

1.1 - LaDanian Tomlinson - Ya, he's had a rough start, but he hasn't been a reason you've LOST a game yet. His upside is too hard to pass up for anyone else.

Other considersations :

Joe Addai - Consistent production, with great upside, but he's no LT.

Brian Westbrook - Durability is still THE concern right? We know when he plays, he's a stud.

Antonio Gates - Yes, I said Gates. 3 20 point + weeks from a tight end are points nobody else has. Having a stud in this position makes the rest of your team that much better than everyone elses. This IS the year to own GATES.

Randy Moss - A METEORIC rise to the top. 3 30 point weeks. Not only Top scorer, but CONSISTENT DOMINATION. He's winning leagues for teams as an AMAZING WR4. Teams that went RB, WR, WR, WR, MOSS are killing right now!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

100% agree on LT, and I still see a decent gap to #2. I would personally be looking at Parker #2.

 

[Cixelsyd]

I think a thread discussing the mental state of a person considering Gates or Moss at the #1 pick is more in line.

What kinda crack do you have to take to think about a TE or WR as the #1 overall pick? Put the pipe down, step away from the computer and seek Fantasy Football help.

As for your question, does it matter... drafts are done... and the last 3 weeks are the last 3 weeks... it's gonna move some up, some down... but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks...

So what were you smoking?

 

[Keys Myaths]

I think a thread discussing the mental state of a person considering Gates or Moss at the #1 pick is more in line.What kinda crack do you have to take to think about a TE or WR as the #1 overall pick? Put the pipe down, step away from the computer and seek Fantasy Football help.As for your question, does it matter... drafts are done... and the last 3 weeks are the last 3 weeks... it's gonna move some up, some down... but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks... So what were you smoking?

You need help.As far as who to pick #2, I think it's Addai in a slam dunk. He's looked incredibly good this year, and his main competition (Westbrook) is too injury-prone.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

As far as who to pick #2, I think it's Addai in a slam dunk. He's looked incredibly good this year, and his main competition (Westbrook) is too injury-prone.

Addai's fantasy prospects are great because of the numerous GL opps, but he hasnt looked "incredibly good" except in the NO game. I will say his instincts inside the 10 look better than last year.

 

[Keys Myaths]

As far as who to pick #2, I think it's Addai in a slam dunk. He's looked incredibly good this year, and his main competition (Westbrook) is too injury-prone.

Addai's fantasy prospects are great because of the numerous GL opps, but he hasnt looked "incredibly good" except in the NO game. I will say his instincts inside the 10 look better than last year.

I disagree. In the Houston/Tennessee games, the stats are low, but he's done a great job getting good yardage on most plays that allow it. I don't think he's ever going to be the homerun threat, but neither was James.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I would think Addai, Parker, Westbrook would be the 2 to 4 selections at this point.

 

[Lash]

IMO Parker will get the Davenport TD's when Pittsburgh plays more games where they are not 3 TD's ahead in the 4th

i would have Westbrook #2 but the "Q" beside his name is one of the most frustrating things to go thru as a FF coach and he has had that letter bedide his name along with 'gametime decision' for about 3 or 4 years now

so i'll choose number 2

1.1 LT

1.2 Parker

 

[tomarken]

Antonio Gates - Yes, I said Gates. 3 20 point + weeks from a tight end are points nobody else has. Having a stud in this position makes the rest of your team that much better than everyone elses. This IS the year to own GATES.

Can I still get Witten in the 9th round?

 

[faux_bear]

my shot at the first round:

1.1 LaDanian Tomlinson, RB

1.2 Joseph Addai

1.3 Willie Parker

1.4 Brian Westbrook

1.5 Shaun Alexander

1.6 Randy Moss

1.7 Chad Johnson

1.8 Travis Henry

1.9 Reggie Bush (cracks the list only because of Deuce's injury)

1.10 Adrian Peterson

1.11 Frank Gore

1.12 Steve Smith

 

[LionsFan78]

my shot at the first round:1.1 LaDanian Tomlinson, RB1.2 Joseph Addai1.3 Willie Parker1.4 Brian Westbrook1.5 Shaun Alexander1.6 Randy Moss1.7 Chad Johnson1.8 Travis Henry1.9 Reggie Bush (cracks the list only because of Deuce's injury)1.10 Adrian Peterson1.11 Frank Gore1.12 Steve Smith

Absolutely have to throw Brady in in a 6-point TD league.

 

[gianmarco]

Would be interesting to see where Peterson would go now in redrafts after just 3 weeks.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

my shot at the first round:1.1 LaDanian Tomlinson, RB1.2 Joseph Addai1.3 Willie Parker1.4 Brian Westbrook1.5 Shaun Alexander1.6 Randy Moss1.7 Chad Johnson1.8 Travis Henry1.9 Reggie Bush (cracks the list only because of Deuce's injury)1.10 Adrian Peterson1.11 Frank Gore1.12 Steve Smith

Absolutely have to throw Brady in in a 6-point TD league.

Brady is the new Manning. (QB picked in the 1st round)

 

[daveandken]

my shot at the first round:1.1 LaDanian Tomlinson, RB1.2 Joseph Addai1.3 Willie Parker1.4 Brian Westbrook1.5 Shaun Alexander1.6 Randy Moss1.7 Chad Johnson1.8 Travis Henry1.9 Reggie Bush (cracks the list only because of Deuce's injury)1.10 Adrian Peterson1.11 Frank Gore1.12 Steve Smith

Absolutely have to throw Brady in in a 6-point TD league.

Really? I'll draft Manning later on in that case.

 

[skoal brother]

i got Addai at 2.7 i'm feeling real good about that selection right now.

 

[sho nuff]

i got Addai at 2.7 i'm feeling real good about that selection right now.

Did you draft last year?

 

[fatness]

At some point people will begin mentioning Marion Barber as a first round pick.

 

[Team Legacy]

Antonio Gates - Yes, I said Gates. 3 20 point + weeks from a tight end are points nobody else has. Having a stud in this position makes the rest of your team that much better than everyone elses. This IS the year to own GATES.

Can I still get Witten in the 9th round?

No, he's likely TE2 or 3 off the board, which means there's a great chance you miss a stud TE entirely. Sure is nice to have a WR1 on your team when everybody else is starting a TE with 6-10 points.

 

[Team Legacy]

1 pt per 10 yards, 1 pt per recept, 6 pt per TD - 13 WEEK REGULAR SEASON - to make the playoffs

1.1 LaDanian Tomlinson, RB

1.2 Joe Addai, RB

1.3 Brian Westbrook, RB

1.4 Antonio Gates, TE

1.5 Randy Moss, WR

1.6 Chad Johnson, WR

1.7 Willie Parker, RB

1.8 Terrell Owens, WR

1.9 Frank Gore, RB

1.10 Adrian Peterson, RB

1.11 Reggie Bush, RB

1.12 Marion Barber, RB

2.1 TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR

Many of the picks below are due to having 3 games in the books already. You know what you're getting for 3 games of the season and they'll COUNT towards your wins in the first 3 weeks.

 

[Team Legacy]

but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks...

Agreed. Kevin Curtis had only 1 good game. You'd be 1-2 with Kevin Curtis your WR1 more than likely.

 

[shadyridr]

I think a thread discussing the mental state of a person considering Gates or Moss at the #1 pick is more in line.What kinda crack do you have to take to think about a TE or WR as the #1 overall pick? Put the pipe down, step away from the computer and seek Fantasy Football help.As for your question, does it matter... drafts are done... and the last 3 weeks are the last 3 weeks... it's gonna move some up, some down... but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks... So what were you smoking?

Wow somebody takes this hobby a little too seriously

 

[Keys Myaths]

but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks...

Agreed. Kevin Curtis had only 1 good game. You'd be 1-2 with Kevin Curtis your WR1 more than likely.

You've never been able to recover with a bad game from one player?Curtis all but guarantees a win in a week. Then, it's up to the rest of your team. I bet most teams would be at LEAST 2-1, if not 3-0 with Curtis at WR.

 

[Team Legacy]

but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks...

Agreed. Kevin Curtis had only 1 good game. You'd be 1-2 with Kevin Curtis your WR1 more than likely.

I bet most teams would be at LEAST 2-1, if not 3-0 with Curtis at WR.

???? How do you get that? I wouldn't sign up for a 6 point week and a 7 point week from Curtis in weeks one and two. How you can assume that someone who drafted him in the Top 10 WRs would be AT LEAST 2-1 is mind boggling. I can certainly understand them having 1 win, but how would they win with a 6 or 7 point week from their wr1? Where is the logic there?

 

[Keys Myaths]

but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks...

Agreed. Kevin Curtis had only 1 good game. You'd be 1-2 with Kevin Curtis your WR1 more than likely.

I bet most teams would be at LEAST 2-1, if not 3-0 with Curtis at WR.

???? How do you get that? I wouldn't sign up for a 6 point week and a 7 point week from Curtis in weeks one and two. How you can assume that someone who drafted him in the Top 10 WRs would be AT LEAST 2-1 is mind boggling. I can certainly understand them having 1 win, but how would they win with a 6 or 7 point week from their wr1? Where is the logic there?

The fact that you most likely start more than just one wide receiver every week?You probably have a couple running backs, maybe even a quarterback, hell, I hear kickers even score these days.

WR10 is about a 4th round pick. You're guaranteed a win (basically), and you fight for points elsewhere the other two weeks. That's pretty powerful.

 

[Team Legacy]

but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks...

Agreed. Kevin Curtis had only 1 good game. You'd be 1-2 with Kevin Curtis your WR1 more than likely.

I bet most teams would be at LEAST 2-1, if not 3-0 with Curtis at WR.

???? How do you get that? I wouldn't sign up for a 6 point week and a 7 point week from Curtis in weeks one and two. How you can assume that someone who drafted him in the Top 10 WRs would be AT LEAST 2-1 is mind boggling. I can certainly understand them having 1 win, but how would they win with a 6 or 7 point week from their wr1? Where is the logic there?

The fact that you most likely start more than just one wide receiver every week?You probably have a couple running backs, maybe even a quarterback, hell, I hear kickers even score these days.

WR10 is about a 4th round pick. You're guaranteed a win (basically), and you fight for points elsewhere the other two weeks. That's pretty powerful.

But your assumption is a BLIND assumption that the rest of the team can OVERCOME your WR1 getting you WR4 numbers. Obviously, my brian doesn't work like yours because my brain assumes the EXACT opposite, that with that player as your WR1, you've made it MORE DIFFICULT to win, rather than assuming you've went 1-1, or even 2-0, in those first two games.And please, I don't mind a little sarcasm, but use it when your point is clearly defendable, not arguable at best.

 

[Keys Myaths]

but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks...

Agreed. Kevin Curtis had only 1 good game. You'd be 1-2 with Kevin Curtis your WR1 more than likely.

I bet most teams would be at LEAST 2-1, if not 3-0 with Curtis at WR.

???? How do you get that? I wouldn't sign up for a 6 point week and a 7 point week from Curtis in weeks one and two. How you can assume that someone who drafted him in the Top 10 WRs would be AT LEAST 2-1 is mind boggling. I can certainly understand them having 1 win, but how would they win with a 6 or 7 point week from their wr1? Where is the logic there?

The fact that you most likely start more than just one wide receiver every week?You probably have a couple running backs, maybe even a quarterback, hell, I hear kickers even score these days.

WR10 is about a 4th round pick. You're guaranteed a win (basically), and you fight for points elsewhere the other two weeks. That's pretty powerful.

But your assumption is a BLIND assumption that the rest of the team can OVERCOME your WR1 getting you WR4 numbers. Obviously, my brian doesn't work like yours because my brain assumes the EXACT opposite, that with that player as your WR1, you've made it MORE DIFFICULT to win, rather than assuming you've went 1-1, or even 2-0, in those first two games.And please, I don't mind a little sarcasm, but use it when your point is clearly defendable, not arguable at best.

It's really not a blind assumption. Receivers, yes, even WR1-10s, score less than 10 points pretty often.Want stats?

Steve Smith didn't score 10 points in six games last year. He scored 11 in one other. You think his owners lost all those games?

Chad Johnson? Ten times last year.

If you really think that because one of your players has a bad game, you're "destined" to lose your game...especially from a fourth round pick?

Doesn't happen. Besides, if you're in a non-PPR league, 100 points is about the average win score from a 2WR start league. So, assuming a QB, 2 RB, 2WR, TE, PK, DEF...you need about 12 points per player to win.

Do you really think if your fourth round pick scores 5-6 less than that, you can't make that up elsewhere? Ever? I'd say you decrease your win chances by a few percent. If you're assuming, everything else equal, that you're 50/50 to win: 5% of a 50% chance makes it 47.5/52.5.

So, assuming a 95% chance to win when Curtis goes off:

.95+.475+.475=an average of a 1.9-1.1 record to start the season, or 2-1.

 

[Team Legacy]

but Kevin Curtis doesn't get drafted in the top 10 WR cause of the last 3 weeks...

Agreed. Kevin Curtis had only 1 good game. You'd be 1-2 with Kevin Curtis your WR1 more than likely.

I bet most teams would be at LEAST 2-1, if not 3-0 with Curtis at WR.

???? How do you get that? I wouldn't sign up for a 6 point week and a 7 point week from Curtis in weeks one and two. How you can assume that someone who drafted him in the Top 10 WRs would be AT LEAST 2-1 is mind boggling. I can certainly understand them having 1 win, but how would they win with a 6 or 7 point week from their wr1? Where is the logic there?

The fact that you most likely start more than just one wide receiver every week?You probably have a couple running backs, maybe even a quarterback, hell, I hear kickers even score these days.

WR10 is about a 4th round pick. You're guaranteed a win (basically), and you fight for points elsewhere the other two weeks. That's pretty powerful.

But your assumption is a BLIND assumption that the rest of the team can OVERCOME your WR1 getting you WR4 numbers. Obviously, my brian doesn't work like yours because my brain assumes the EXACT opposite, that with that player as your WR1, you've made it MORE DIFFICULT to win, rather than assuming you've went 1-1, or even 2-0, in those first two games.And please, I don't mind a little sarcasm, but use it when your point is clearly defendable, not arguable at best.

I'd say you decrease your win chances by a few percent.

Cutting through your eloquent explanation, I see this. Assuming wins when your win chances decrease is bad logic and a blind assumption. You know NOTHING of the drafter's skills or team other than his WR1 scored 5-6 points.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Assuming wins when your win chances decrease is bad logic and a blind assumption. You know NOTHING of the drafter's skills or team other than his WR1 scored 5-6 points.

It's like poker.There's $100 in the pot. You think you only have a 20% chance of winning the hand. Your opponent bets $10 on the final bet. Do you call?Of course you do. Why? Because 20% of the time, you'll win $110 for the cost of $10. Your expected gain from making that call is ($110*.2)-$10, or $12.Now, let's apply this to the above post that you so rudely cut off. Even if your win chances decrease, your expected win total is still a combination of the number of games played times the percentage chance of you winning that game.If you give yourself a 95% chance to win game 3, because of Curtis, you already are .95-2.05 on the season, on average.Your assumption says that there's a damn good chance you'll end up 1-2. Okay. I'll take "damn good chance" to mean about 67%, or 2/3.So, let's make the "best" your team can do is 1.33-2.67 under this model.Therefore, with .95 wins already in the bag, you're saying the team should only have a 19% chance (.38/2) of winning either game.Do you really think that 81% of the time, the rest of your team will be so bad after a fourth round pick underperforms by 5-6 points, that you'll lose eighty-one percent of the time?Wow.

 

[Pyramid Scheme]

1 pt per 10 yards, 1 pt per recept, 6 pt per TD - 13 WEEK REGULAR SEASON - to make the playoffs

1 PPR with 1 per 5 yards, not 10, and TE's treated as wide receivers:#. player (value)1. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB (21.2717)2. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB (16.3844)3. Johnson, Chad CIN WR (16.2985)4. Addai, Joseph IND RB (13.4691)5. Williams, Roy DET WR (12.3086)6. Jackson, Steven STL RB (12.2487)7. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB (11.7931)8. Boldin, Anquan ARI WR (11.6126)9. Johnson, Andre HOU WR (11.5689)10. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR (11.3638)11. Owens, Terrell DAL WR (11.3031)12. Parker, Willie PIT RB (11.2649)13. Brady, Tom NEP QB (10.8232)14. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB (10.8147)15. Moss, Randy NEP WR (10.7033)16. Smith, Steve CAR WR (10.5397)17. Palmer, Carson CIN QB (10.2654)18. Jordan, Lamont OAK RB (10.0501)19. Manning, Peyton IND QB (9.1347)20. Henry, Travis DEN RB (9.1143)21. McGahee, Willis BAL RB (8.7325)22. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB (8.3741)23. Gore, Frank SFO RB (8.3119)24. Romo, Tony DAL QB (8.2846)

 

[GoBirds]

1 pt per 10 yards, 1 pt per recept, 6 pt per TD - 13 WEEK REGULAR SEASON - to make the playoffs

1 PPR with 1 per 5 yards, not 10, and TE's treated as wide receivers:#. player (value)1. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB (21.2717)2. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB (16.3844)3. Johnson, Chad CIN WR (16.2985)4. Addai, Joseph IND RB (13.4691)5. Williams, Roy DET WR (12.3086)6. Jackson, Steven STL RB (12.2487)7. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB (11.7931)8. Boldin, Anquan ARI WR (11.6126)9. Johnson, Andre HOU WR (11.5689)10. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR (11.3638)11. Owens, Terrell DAL WR (11.3031)12. Parker, Willie PIT RB (11.2649)13. Brady, Tom NEP QB (10.8232)14. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB (10.8147)15. Moss, Randy NEP WR (10.7033)16. Smith, Steve CAR WR (10.5397)17. Palmer, Carson CIN QB (10.2654)18. Jordan, Lamont OAK RB (10.0501)19. Manning, Peyton IND QB (9.1347)20. Henry, Travis DEN RB (9.1143)21. McGahee, Willis BAL RB (8.7325)22. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB (8.3741)23. Gore, Frank SFO RB (8.3119)24. Romo, Tony DAL QB (8.2846)

Brown #7........Bush not in top 24?

 

[Cixelsyd]

As far as who to pick #2, I think it's Addai in a slam dunk. He's looked incredibly good this year, and his main competition (Westbrook) is too injury-prone.

Addai's fantasy prospects are great because of the numerous GL opps, but he hasnt looked "incredibly good" except in the NO game. I will say his instincts inside the 10 look better than last year.

I disagree. In the Houston/Tennessee games, the stats are low, but he's done a great job getting good yardage on most plays that allow it. I don't think he's ever going to be the homerun threat, but neither was James.

Though you think I need help, I also agree with you. Addai is the sure #2 right now going forward, and has the chance to move to #1... I think he only improves as the season progresses and the oline gels... and having the D worry about Manning helps alot

 

[Pyramid Scheme]

1 pt per 10 yards, 1 pt per recept, 6 pt per TD - 13 WEEK REGULAR SEASON - to make the playoffs

1 PPR with 1 per 5 yards, not 10, and TE's treated as wide receivers:#. player (value)1. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB (21.2717)2. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB (16.3844)3. Johnson, Chad CIN WR (16.2985)4. Addai, Joseph IND RB (13.4691)5. Williams, Roy DET WR (12.3086)6. Jackson, Steven STL RB (12.2487)7. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB (11.7931)8. Boldin, Anquan ARI WR (11.6126)9. Johnson, Andre HOU WR (11.5689)10. Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR (11.3638)11. Owens, Terrell DAL WR (11.3031)12. Parker, Willie PIT RB (11.2649)13. Brady, Tom NEP QB (10.8232)14. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB (10.8147)15. Moss, Randy NEP WR (10.7033)16. Smith, Steve CAR WR (10.5397)17. Palmer, Carson CIN QB (10.2654)18. Jordan, Lamont OAK RB (10.0501)19. Manning, Peyton IND QB (9.1347)20. Henry, Travis DEN RB (9.1143)21. McGahee, Willis BAL RB (8.7325)22. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB (8.3741)23. Gore, Frank SFO RB (8.3119)24. Romo, Tony DAL QB (8.2846)

Brown #7........Bush not in top 24?

Bush is 25 under the valuation method used.Under this scoring system, Brown is currently RB3 by average PPW. Compare to LT at RB14....

 

[Keys Myaths]

As far as who to pick #2, I think it's Addai in a slam dunk. He's looked incredibly good this year, and his main competition (Westbrook) is too injury-prone.

Addai's fantasy prospects are great because of the numerous GL opps, but he hasnt looked "incredibly good" except in the NO game. I will say his instincts inside the 10 look better than last year.

I disagree. In the Houston/Tennessee games, the stats are low, but he's done a great job getting good yardage on most plays that allow it. I don't think he's ever going to be the homerun threat, but neither was James.

Though you think I need help, I also agree with you. Addai is the sure #2 right now going forward, and has the chance to move to #1... I think he only improves as the season progresses and the oline gels... and having the D worry about Manning helps alot

We all need help, gb. Myself included. I just like to point it out.

 

[Cixelsyd]

Assuming wins when your win chances decrease is bad logic and a blind assumption. You know NOTHING of the drafter's skills or team other than his WR1 scored 5-6 points.

It's like poker.There's $100 in the pot. You think you only have a 20% chance of winning the hand. Your opponent bets $10 on the final bet. Do you call?Of course you do. Why? Because 20% of the time, you'll win $110 for the cost of $10. Your expected gain from making that call is ($110*.2)-$10, or $12.Now, let's apply this to the above post that you so rudely cut off. Even if your win chances decrease, your expected win total is still a combination of the number of games played times the percentage chance of you winning that game.If you give yourself a 95% chance to win game 3, because of Curtis, you already are .95-2.05 on the season, on average.Your assumption says that there's a damn good chance you'll end up 1-2. Okay. I'll take "damn good chance" to mean about 67%, or 2/3.So, let's make the "best" your team can do is 1.33-2.67 under this model.Therefore, with .95 wins already in the bag, you're saying the team should only have a 19% chance (.38/2) of winning either game.Do you really think that 81% of the time, the rest of your team will be so bad after a fourth round pick underperforms by 5-6 points, that you'll lose eighty-one percent of the time?Wow.

Key... slow down... all this math is making my head hurt... love the passion though...I think the arguement is you can't have Curtis as your #1 WR... are you saying with Curtis as your #1 WR you can be 2-1? The value of Curtis is he's not your #1, the guys who got him got him late... his value is as a #3 or #4 that is out performing... you cant take Curtis as the #1 or #2 WR overall and think all is peachy... even going forward, if you drafted today I don't see anyone taking curtis as more then a #2 WR... The body of work just isn't there to support it... Moss I can see... his ADP was low prior to the start of the season... and know he's flourishing in a great system and he's looking like the Moss of old... There is no Curtis of old...Statistics are just that... statistics... Your betting more the 10 on a 100 pot if you select Curtis as your #1... As your #3 or #4 is more like it..One key to fantasy success (and there are many) is to draft players that out perform their ADP... that is why Curtis makes no sense as your #1 WR

 

[Cixelsyd]

As far as who to pick #2, I think it's Addai in a slam dunk. He's looked incredibly good this year, and his main competition (Westbrook) is too injury-prone.

Addai's fantasy prospects are great because of the numerous GL opps, but he hasnt looked "incredibly good" except in the NO game. I will say his instincts inside the 10 look better than last year.

I disagree. In the Houston/Tennessee games, the stats are low, but he's done a great job getting good yardage on most plays that allow it. I don't think he's ever going to be the homerun threat, but neither was James.

Though you think I need help, I also agree with you. Addai is the sure #2 right now going forward, and has the chance to move to #1... I think he only improves as the season progresses and the oline gels... and having the D worry about Manning helps alot

We all need help, gb. Myself included. I just like to point it out.

gb? True, if we didn't need help this board wouldn't exist.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Key... slow down... all this math is making my head hurt... love the passion though...

It's how my mind operates. That's why you guys don't realize it's a blessing in disguise when 98% of my posts in here aren't serious.

I think the arguement is you can't have Curtis as your #1 WR... are you saying with Curtis as your #1 WR you can be 2-1?

This guy gets it. I'm not saying you should draft Curtis #1, but yes, you can be 2-1, or even 3-0 with him right now as your #1.

The value of Curtis is he's not your #1, the guys who got him got him late... his value is as a #3 or #4 that is out performing... you cant take Curtis as the #1 or #2 WR overall and think all is peachy... even going forward, if you drafted today I don't see anyone taking curtis as more then a #2 WR...

I don't disagree with this. We were just talking about through the first three games, and what was possible/impossible.

Statistics are just that... statistics... Your betting more the 10 on a 100 pot if you select Curtis as your #1... As your #3 or #4 is more like it..

One key to fantasy success (and there are many) is to draft players that out perform their ADP... that is why Curtis makes no sense as your #1 WR

I don't disagree at all.

 

[Keys Myaths]

As far as who to pick #2, I think it's Addai in a slam dunk. He's looked incredibly good this year, and his main competition (Westbrook) is too injury-prone.

Addai's fantasy prospects are great because of the numerous GL opps, but he hasnt looked "incredibly good" except in the NO game. I will say his instincts inside the 10 look better than last year.

I disagree. In the Houston/Tennessee games, the stats are low, but he's done a great job getting good yardage on most plays that allow it. I don't think he's ever going to be the homerun threat, but neither was James.

Though you think I need help, I also agree with you. Addai is the sure #2 right now going forward, and has the chance to move to #1... I think he only improves as the season progresses and the oline gels... and having the D worry about Manning helps alot

We all need help, gb. Myself included. I just like to point it out.

gb? True, if we didn't need help this board wouldn't exist.

gb=good buddy.

 

[Cixelsyd]

Key... slow down... all this math is making my head hurt... love the passion though...

It's how my mind operates. That's why you guys don't realize it's a blessing in disguise when 98% of my posts in here aren't serious.

I think the arguement is you can't have Curtis as your #1 WR... are you saying with Curtis as your #1 WR you can be 2-1?

This guy gets it. I'm not saying you should draft Curtis #1, but yes, you can be 2-1, or even 3-0 with him right now as your #1.

The value of Curtis is he's not your #1, the guys who got him got him late... his value is as a #3 or #4 that is out performing... you cant take Curtis as the #1 or #2 WR overall and think all is peachy... even going forward, if you drafted today I don't see anyone taking curtis as more then a #2 WR...

I don't disagree with this. We were just talking about through the first three games, and what was possible/impossible.

Statistics are just that... statistics... Your betting more the 10 on a 100 pot if you select Curtis as your #1... As your #3 or #4 is more like it..

One key to fantasy success (and there are many) is to draft players that out perform their ADP... that is why Curtis makes no sense as your #1 WR

I don't disagree at all.

Hey Key... I see where you were going... and I think thats where the other guy had some issue... of course you could be 2-1 or 3-0 with him as your #1... you have the overall draft to factor in, the mentality of the other owners, and who you play that week... they all factor in... I'm 0-3 in a league that I hit the #1 scorer each week... I ran into the McNabb/Curtis train this last week but lost by only 30 points in a PPR league... he only started Curtis because he traded away Colston for RB depth... Hey, how do you post just section of quote, rather then quoting all like I just did?

 

[Keys Myaths]

Hey, how do you post just section of quote, rather then quoting all like I just did?

Push quote, and just erase all the text that you don't want in there. You have to make sure the quote tags match up, which is a pain. You get used to it after a few tries.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Hey Key... I see where you were going... and I think thats where the other guy had some issue... of course you could be 2-1 or 3-0 with him as your #1... you have the overall draft to factor in, the mentality of the other owners, and who you play that week... they all factor in...

Which is why we assign percentages. I'm not saying the math or the assumptions of the percentages are perfect, but they're reasonable estimates to show that it's pretty out there to say that it's nearly impossible for the team to win more than one game.

 

[Team Legacy]

Assuming wins when your win chances decrease is bad logic and a blind assumption. You know NOTHING of the drafter's skills or team other than his WR1 scored 5-6 points.

It's like poker.There's $100 in the pot. You think you only have a 20% chance of winning the hand. Your opponent bets $10 on the final bet. Do you call?Of course you do. Why? Because 20% of the time, you'll win $110 for the cost of $10. Your expected gain from making that call is ($110*.2)-$10, or $12.Now, let's apply this to the above post that you so rudely cut off. Even if your win chances decrease, your expected win total is still a combination of the number of games played times the percentage chance of you winning that game.If you give yourself a 95% chance to win game 3, because of Curtis, you already are .95-2.05 on the season, on average.Your assumption says that there's a damn good chance you'll end up 1-2. Okay. I'll take "damn good chance" to mean about 67%, or 2/3.So, let's make the "best" your team can do is 1.33-2.67 under this model.Therefore, with .95 wins already in the bag, you're saying the team should only have a 19% chance (.38/2) of winning either game.Do you really think that 81% of the time, the rest of your team will be so bad after a fourth round pick underperforms by 5-6 points, that you'll lose eighty-one percent of the time?Wow.

Okay, so let's use this example: (although I appreciate your example and the time you put into it)Not knowing any of the player results, or anything of a player's draft, player A vs player B, each player has a 50% chance of winning. If Player A drafted Kevin Curtis as their WR1, and he scores 5-6 points (well under the average for a WR1 with PPR), then the chances of Player A winning are now LESS THAN Player B. Correct? To what extent you ask? Although I believe it is more like a 15% impact, let's just say 10%. So if you're odds going in against Player B were 50%, they're now 45%.If I go into Monday nights game with a 45% chance of winning the week, I likely LOSE. If next week, again my chances of winning are 45%, I likely LOSE again.Notice my original post stated nothing of this "damn good chance" (your words, not mine). I simply stated, "You'd be 1-2 with Kevin Curtis your WR1 more than likely." Your statement was what I had issue with which was, "I bet most teams would be at LEAST 2-1, if not 3-0 with Curtis at WR."I think our differences come into where Kevin Curtis was drafted. Does he replace a Steve Smith as your WR1? Then I'm correct. If he's replacing Devery Henderson, you're likely correct.

 

[Keys Myaths]

If I go into Monday nights game with a 45% chance of winning the week, I likely LOSE. If next week, again my chances of winning are 45%, I likely LOSE again.

Ugh, you're going to make me late for a date tonight (seriously). You dragged me into it. Realize that statistically, if you win a game 45% of the time, on an expected value basis, you get .45 of a win. You don't "lose" like your post states. You lose 55% of the time.So, adding up the two expected value propositions, you get .9 of a win. That's your expected worth of the team right now. Add that to the 85 or 95% chance you have to win the other game, and we're talking 1.8-1.9 wins for your team. That's much closer to 2-1 than 1-2.Yes, you "likely" lose in any one of those two weeks. My point is, you're looking at it the wrong way.Remember that 55% figure, your "likeliness to lose"? Okay. What's the likelihood, given a 55% chance, that you lose BOTH weeks that Curtis underperformed?.55*.55, right? That's the first week of statistics class. .55*.55=0.3025.That's a 30% chance of losing both games, a 20% chance of winning both games, and a 50% chance of going 1-1 in those two games.Meh, she's not that hot anyway.