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Reach a little, or keep taking BPA (1 Viewer)

B

bulger2holt

Footballguy
If you have 4-5 guys targeted you like, would you reach one round early for each one, or take the chance you will keep missing those players, resulting in taking BPA in each round?

 
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Im fed up w the whole 'value based draft' approach

Fantasy is meant to be fun.

Take the guys you want on your team. Don't end up w a team of guys you settled on

It's only a reach if you cant evaluate talent properly

 
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bulger2holt said:
If you 4-5 guys targeted you like, would you reach one round early for each one, or take the chance you will keep missing those players, resulting in taking BPA in reach round?
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One round early is not that much of a reach for players you really want (even for each one).

I almost always roll-the-dice on high upside players rather than play it safe.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Im fed up w the whole 'value based draft' approach

Fantasy is meant to be fun.

Take the guys you want on your team. Don't end up w a team of guys you settled on

It's only a reach if you cant evaluate talent properly
Click to expand...
That's kind of how I'm feeling. I think some of the guys I have targeted will out perform their ADP and don't want to miss out on them. I may reach one round early for several players, unless there is a clear cut better player available.

 
Always remember this about any given player's ADP: it has absolutely NO correlation to how their fantasy season will unfold. All adp tells you is what a million other buffoons on average think a player will do this season. But millions of people are dead wrong...ALOT. INCLUDING THE "experts".

If you are targeting a player and you want him on your team and you can grab him with a pick that is 10-20 picks earlier than his ado and you don't think he will come back to you in the next round then take him.

The only time to consider ado is when you are targeting a player but his adp is many round later in your draft. For instance, you draft Steven Jackson in the 6th rd, and you absolutely want devonta freeman. If Freeman's ado is around the 10th round then you can safely wait a few rounds before pouncing on him. But still so it several picks earlier than his adp suggests.

People who try to get value by drafting players that are past their adp in the draft don't know how to draft a winning team. They are just basing their decisions on what the average fantasy player thinks.

Also, every league drafts differently, so individually, each league will have picks that will absolutely shock you based on adp and where the players actually went.

It's the same concept as flipping a coin 10,000 times vs flipping a coin 10 times. If you flip it 10,000 times there is a very high probability that 50% of the tosses will come up heads and 50% tails. But flip it 10 times and you might see 9 heads and 1 tail.

Ach and every individual draft is it's own beast. Treat it as such. Take the players you like based in your analysis not what the herd thinks.

 
The A in ADP stands for average.

If all abided to ADP, then all would be mainstream - not in success, but in conviction.

I use ADP primarily to see where I differ highly from the mainstream to read up on those guys in order to assess if I trust my conviction is sound. This is a pre-draft process.

At the time of draft, I use ADP primarily to forecast the chances of the guy I want would be available the next round.

At the end, I go with my convictions.

I feel I am better off prepping myself up to the draft. I also feel I increase my chances of drafting more guys that I target via the use of ADP data.

 
I never look at ADP. I don't care where players are getting drafted, I only care if they are available when my picks come around. I normally have a few guys I'm targeting and know from the way the draft is shaping up when I need to think about taking them.

 
If you think about the question a little, you are really asking this: use someone else's rankings, or use your own rankings? If you really like a player and you take him a little early, you must think he is the "BPA".

After the first couple of rounds, the only "bad" pick is a player that would have still been available for you to pick in the next round. So I wouldn't reach several rounds ahead, but I would reach one round ahead to snag someone I really like.

 
I use rankings from FBGs but I look at who is there and who I think is in the best situation with the best talent to score points. It's all how percieve things. Trust your gut.

 
bulger2holt said:
Phenomena said:
Always better to take a round early to get them.
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By doing this, you can nearly guarantee your mock from rds 4-10, nearly. There are guys I really like DJax, Cooks, Benjamin, Sanders, Olsen, Decker to name a few.
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The Best Players Available at any draft spot, when all is said and done and the season played out, will rarely if ever turn out to have been the ones that were ranked there by ADP.

Take the players you think are the best available, unless the difference between your perception and the ADP is so radical that there's virtually no chance he'll be scooped in the next several rounds. Josh Gordon in the first last year would have been stupid, even if you thought he was going to be the best WR in football. The only thing that would have made him a stupid pick in round ten is if you decided to wait and someone else took him in round eleven.

 
bulger2holt said:
If you have 4-5 guys targeted you like, would you reach one round early for each one, or take the chance you will keep missing those players, resulting in taking BPA in each round?
Click to expand...
all depends on upside...and if you feel that player can be a difference maker then grab him. This game isn't a science, it's an art....look at mock drafts from last year and where those players ended up at the end of the year. Don't be a slave to ADP...it's a decent gauge on where you can "get" players but it's not a predictor of their future productivity.

 
LittlePhatty said:
FF Ninja said:
This doesn't have to be an issue. The answer you are looking for is in one word:

Auction
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The question simply changes to "would you pay more than the average price for a player?"
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Yes and no. It takes the guess work out of it. Of course you want your guys, but the question is always "can I wait a round?". When you wait and the guy gets taken, you are pissed at yourself. With auction at least you know what you have to pay and if everyone stops bidding and you get your guy at his AAV then you essentially didn't have to blindly reach for him - you got him at cost rather than paying a premium. And hell, sometimes you get him cheaper than his AAV.

 
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