'Reaching' For A QB (1 Viewer)

[RalphMouth]

Do you do it ? Have you had luck or disaster ?

My league loves to takes QBs by the time the 5th round is over. Looking in the archives on average my league

has taken nine QB's after five rounds of drafting.

I'm the 12th pick so if I wait and take one in 5.12 or 6.01 spot my fear is that I don't get a Tier 2 guy (Rivers, Romo, Warner, McNabb) but this means a would have to take one at 4.01 and this could be considered 'reaching.'

My fear is that I don't want a Tier 3 guy (Palmer, Schaub) but would be stuck with one of them.

What the best strategy THIS YEAR for QBs ?

Would you be happy w/Palmer or Schaub? Draft those and I think a quality backup must be taken due to injury risks.

 

[netnalp]

In my 14 team league, I'd be really happy with a Palmer/Schaub combo. I'm expecting I'll only be able to get one of those to combine with either Edwards, Garrard or Hasselback.

 

[sinatravolta]

Do you do it ? Have you had luck or disaster ?

My league loves to takes QBs by the time the 5th round is over. Looking in the archives on average my league

has taken nine QB's after five rounds of drafting.

I'm the 12th pick so if I wait and take one in 5.12 or 6.01 spot my fear is that I don't get a Tier 2 guy (Rivers, Romo, Warner, McNabb) but this means a would have to take one at 4.01 and this could be considered 'reaching.'

My fear is that I don't want a Tier 3 guy (Palmer, Schaub) but would be stuck with one of them.

What the best strategy THIS YEAR for QBs ?

Would you be happy w/Palmer or Schaub? Draft those and I think a quality backup must be taken due to injury risks.

I would be happy with Schaub and Palmer. I think to get Schaub you'd probably have to take him in the 5.12/6.01 in this league. While healthy he should be a perfectly good starting QB - pretty much the same level as McNabb and maybe even Warner - and with the same issue of being more likely than most to get injured. I would rather have him than Romo who I think has a rough year this year, but I view Rivers as more of a sure thing. But basically - you're getting a guy equivalent to what you've listed as Tier 2 in that spot. Then if he's still there - you take Palmer at 7.12/8.01. Now you have 2 very high upside guys and should be set. If Palmer goes before then you look at someone like Hasselbeck or Garrard (probably in the 9.12/10.01 spot) as a solid backup. I think you're right that a quality backup should be taken due to injury risks - but that's really not a high price to pay.

 

[puckalicious]

Do you do it ? Have you had luck or disaster ?

My league loves to takes QBs by the time the 5th round is over. Looking in the archives on average my league

has taken nine QB's after five rounds of drafting.

I'm the 12th pick so if I wait and take one in 5.12 or 6.01 spot my fear is that I don't get a Tier 2 guy (Rivers, Romo, Warner, McNabb) but this means a would have to take one at 4.01 and this could be considered 'reaching.'

My fear is that I don't want a Tier 3 guy (Palmer, Schaub) but would be stuck with one of them.

What the best strategy THIS YEAR for QBs ?

Would you be happy w/Palmer or Schaub? Draft those and I think a quality backup must be taken due to injury risks.

I would be happy with Schaub and Palmer. I think to get Schaub you'd probably have to take him in the 5.12/6.01 in this league. While healthy he should be a perfectly good starting QB - pretty much the same level as McNabb and maybe even Warner - and with the same issue of being more likely than most to get injured. I would rather have him than Romo who I think has a rough year this year, but I view Rivers as more of a sure thing. But basically - you're getting a guy equivalent to what you've listed as Tier 2 in that spot. Then if he's still there - you take Palmer at 7.12/8.01. Now you have 2 very high upside guys and should be set. If Palmer goes before then you look at someone like Hasselbeck or Garrard (probably in the 9.12/10.01 spot) as a solid backup. I think you're right that a quality backup should be taken due to injury risks - but that's really not a high price to pay.

I think many leagues will be won this year with Palmer & Schaub drafted late. Odds are good that 1 of them finishes top 5 IMO.

 

[SSOG]

I have an 8-team keeper league, and in a league that small, I will reach CRIMINALLY to get an elite QB. In an 8-team league, there's a lot less position scarcity at RB and WR, so you can make it up later... but when the 4th best QB is an average starter, a true difference-maker (i.e. someone who will separate himself from his peers) is worth every penny, every time. This year, I wound up taking Brady with the #5 overall pick (although, remember, this is a keeper league) while guys like Moss, Calvin, Gore, and Tomlinson were still on the board. I probably would have taken him with the #2 over Fitz, Andre Johnson, and Steven Jackson if it'd come to that.

On the other end of the spectrum, in a 12 or 14 team league, there's far too much position scarcity, imo, to waste a 4th rounder on a QB (unless one of the really elite guys falls that far). I far prefer the "buckshot" method- grab 2-3 guys with high upside in the 12-18 range and figure that at least one of them will hit.

In a 10-team league, it can go either way. There's less positional scarcity than in a 12 or 14 teamer, and difference makers are almost as valuable as in an 8-teamer. I generally wind up with a tier 2 QB in these leagues, although I'm happy to grab a tier 1 guy if they're falling further than I think they should, or drop back and go with the Buckshot method if QBs are flying off the board.

Really, I think the big key with this (as with everything else) is to let the draft come to you. If your 4th pick rolls around and there's a QB who you think presents good value, then take him. If there's not, then don't reach- take a different position and start gobbling up all the talent that starts falling once your league goes on its QB run.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

2007 - good fortune

2008 - disaster

ps

I wouldn't guess Schaub will be going all that late.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Here's the deal with Qb from the MOP "Reality" of these drafts and results every season. I love Chase but I tried to implement the QBBC religiously for several seasons and I flopped in most of them...so I went back to the mindset that i would not reach for a QB, but if value is there no matter the position I grab it.

I typically try and get a QB in rounds 4-5 when the 2nd tier is unloading...this season you have McNabb, Cutler, Romo, Palmer, i think any one of those guys could be top5 if not a little better. I am not a fan of Garrard and no matter what the numbers are spun out to be, having the #12 QB in FF is not a good thing. It really isn't because i don't want to have any weaknesses if I can prevent it and while its great to load up at RB and WR, I can make up those points thru numbers later. This year you can find soem value for QB2 across the board but I want that 1st QB to have a chance to change games. You have to love when you get 30+ points out of a QB...that doesn't happen often enough with a guy like Garrard so I am -10 each week at QB. Cause you are going to face Brees, Brady, manning, and that 2nd tier almost every week and if luck isn't on your side you are a big dog at QB every week...its just the truth.

So I wouldn't reach for QBs but I would try and secure osmething you are comfortable with. Also, you want to get a young guy in tandem with a veteran. For example, i think a Flacco/Ryan combo is disastrous vs a Ryan/Delhomme combo or a Flacco/Hass combo...I like a vetran and a young guy with upside. Scahub/Palmer is a very interesting combo and Palmer would be the vet in that duo. Also 2 older vets are not a great combo either like Hass/Delhomme I don't care for that combo.

 

[RalphMouth]

The last few years I've had sub par quarterbacking and I'm tired of it. It would be nice just once to have a guy I can start with confidence each week.

At 4.01 I can get that guy but at 5.12 they will be gone. I just feel that at 4.01 I may be overpaying unless I grab Rivers but I think he's due to have less points this season. I like McNabb this year but if taken in this slot I'm

most likely 'reaching' a good 15 -20 picks earlier than I should but I firmly believe he's gone at 5.12.

 

[SSOG]

The last few years I've had sub par quarterbacking and I'm tired of it. It would be nice just once to have a guy I can start with confidence each week.At 4.01 I can get that guy but at 5.12 they will be gone. I just feel that at 4.01 I may be overpaying unless I grab Rivers but I think he's due to have less points this season. I like McNabb this year but if taken in this slot I'm most likely 'reaching' a good 15 -20 picks earlier than I should but I firmly believe he's gone at 5.12.

Have you ever been drafting when you look at the board and say "How the heck is __________ still on the board??!"The reason why ________ is still on the board at that pick is because everyone else is reaching. Reaching is the unforgivable sin of drafting. It means you're passing on superior talent. Now, if you think that McNabb is going to finish the season with 5000 yards and 40 TDs, then by all means grab him in the fourth (because, as you said, he won't be there in the 5th)... but don't grab a QB because you want a QB. Grab who you think is the best player on the board that won't still be there when you pick next. If that's a QB, then so be it. If it's not, then resign yourself to the fact that you're just not going to get a top QB this year, but know that you'll make up for it with superior talent all over the rest of your team.

 

[gump]

In my 10-team, I usually get a QB in the 4th/5th. Sometimes I'll 'reach' a little.

What I've discovered is that over the years I've been much better than my leaguemates at building depth in rounds 6 and later...probably due to this site. The first 4 rounds or so go as planned, as a lot of cheatsheets are the same...then guys start reaching at other positions...and value falls to me.

So I target 2-3 QBs and will take one at 4/5 if available...this year it's Rivers, McNabb, and Warner.

 

[Captain Hook]

To reinforce what SSOG just said, you should NEVER be "reaching" for a specific player - loosely defined at drafting him before the other players in his position Tier have started to go (obviosly there are some really close situatins or drafting on the corner etc)

Players "reaching" for players - especially teams at either end of the draft creates huge VALUE as higher ranked players thus fall to the middle of the draft from both ends (another reason all things being equal, why if I can't get the first pick or two I would rather draft from the middle)

The situation is compounded with Quarterbacks - look at the QB scoring from your league for last year.......then look at the "projections" for the quarterbacks for the upcoming season............look at the difference in points for first four QBs.....next five QBs......then next 3-7 quarterbacks............there are always guys who play up from that third group (or below) to be in the Top 10. The difference in points rarely justifies losing the position player you could obtain by waiting to take a quarterback (or better yet PAIR of quarterbacks with later picks.

BTW since MOP brought up QBBC (loosely defined as staying off all the top quarterbacks and selecting three quarterbacks later in the draft who combined will play a very easy schedule of passing defenses........it works fine in Theory............one problem is that defesnses rarely repeat as being as good OR bad as they were the prior year (except for the Lions of course.....or where you have a screwy defensive scoring) AND even more important, one of the three QBs you pick as part of your Committee often jumps up to be an almost every week starter (look back at Rodgers, Rivers, Hasselbeck etc from previous seasons).....and then people say ..."well the committee thing didn't work" - actually it DID because it allowed you to find that guy and draft him late. If you were trying to pick out just one starting QB aside from the studs, there is little chance you would have drafted that same guy.

 

[Instinctive]

I would definitely be happy with Schaub. And his matchups cover well with Garrard of Hass I believe, who you can get later. But I view Schaub as a matchup proof type guy, and consistently grab him at 5.01.

 

[FUBAR]

To reinforce what SSOG just said, you should NEVER be "reaching" for a specific player - loosely defined at drafting him before the other players in his position Tier have started to go (obviosly there are some really close situatins or drafting on the corner etc)

If you mean tiers that you have created for yourself I agree. If you're referring to consensus tiers, I completely disagree. I'll "reach" for a player that won't make it back to me if he's on top of my rankings even if he's perceived to be a reach by everyone else.

 

[Chaz]

Why is it thought to be so smart to try to hit on one of several QBs in the mid-later rounds, because one of them will pan out? Of course this is the case. However, it is also the case that several RBs taken in the middle rounds will pan out.

For some reason, many owners feel that the smarter move is to go with the herd and take the "scarce" RBs and then roll the dice on QB. The other way around can work just as well, IMO. The key is, as ever, to get the right player. Nothing special here, just that the player can be of any position.

It's not a reach if you are right, no matter the player (within reason, of course. A top kicker would not be taken in the 2nd round, etc...)

 

[hoochiemama]

The more I draft, the more I feel it is important to get a top 5 QB no matter what. I also grab my back up earlier than most. I would define reach as grabbing a player at least two rounds ahead of his ADP ( mid rounds) or a full tier out of the general consensus ranking. If you do a lot of mock drafts you will pretty much be able to see when you need to draft your player.

This year I think it is even more warranted to follow your gut on a reach. I want a top tier QB. Considering the number of RBs with warts and the 2nd tier Qbs with question marks. PM, Brady, Brees gives me a lot more confidence going into the season. If I was too miss them I would reach like a one arm at the Bunny Ranch's free feel night to get Rodger or Rivers.

 

[SSOG]

To reinforce what SSOG just said, you should NEVER be "reaching" for a specific player - loosely defined at drafting him before the other players in his position Tier have started to go (obviosly there are some really close situatins or drafting on the corner etc)

If you mean tiers that you have created for yourself I agree. If you're referring to consensus tiers, I completely disagree. I'll "reach" for a player that won't make it back to me if he's on top of my rankings even if he's perceived to be a reach by everyone else.

That's not reaching, that's taking the best player on the board. Other people might disagree with your board, but there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the philosophy (provided your projections are sound- and really, they're likely to be as sound as those "consensus" projections everyone else is drafting from).Personally, I just went off the reservation and took DeSean Foster in the 5th in my league, but that's because we reward punt return yardage and I think he's going to put up as many points as a WR who goes for 1300/10 without the punt returns. I would have taken him in the 4th if I wasn't sure he would have dropped to me at the 5th. Some people might say that I reached, but I say I took the best player on the board a full round after he should have been drafted.

Why is it thought to be so smart to try to hit on one of several QBs in the mid-later rounds, because one of them will pan out? Of course this is the case. However, it is also the case that several RBs taken in the middle rounds will pan out. For some reason, many owners feel that the smarter move is to go with the herd and take the "scarce" RBs and then roll the dice on QB. The other way around can work just as well, IMO. The key is, as ever, to get the right player. Nothing special here, just that the player can be of any position.It's not a reach if you are right, no matter the player (within reason, of course. A top kicker would not be taken in the 2nd round, etc...)

Here's the difference. In the NFL, there are 32 starting QBs, 32 starting RBs (maybe 40 if you double-count two-back committees), and 64 starting WRs. In a 12 team league, 12 of those 32 QBs are going to start (37.5%), compared to 60% of RBs and 56% of WRs. This means that there are a lot more quality QBs floating around not being used than there are RBs and WRs, and the odds of a starter-caliber season coming from outside the perceived starter-caliber QBs is significantly higher than that of a starter-caliber RB/WR coming from outside the perceived starters at those positions.In other words, it's all a function of positional scarcity. Supply and demand is a powerful thing.

 

[two_dollars]

Why is it thought to be so smart to try to hit on one of several QBs in the mid-later rounds, because one of them will pan out? Of course this is the case. However, it is also the case that several RBs taken in the middle rounds will pan out.

For some reason, many owners feel that the smarter move is to go with the herd and take the "scarce" RBs and then roll the dice on QB. The other way around can work just as well, IMO. The key is, as ever, to get the right player. Nothing special here, just that the player can be of any position.

It's not a reach if you are right, no matter the player (within reason, of course. A top kicker would not be taken in the 2nd round, etc...)

No, not really, as in most leagues you will draft 2-3 QB's mid rounds to hit on 1 starter, where you have to start 2 to 3 RB's and you need the "sure" thing in the early rounds.I can say this.. in the last 4 years in my league, someone who drafted a QB in the first 4 rounds has not won the championship. I don't have the draft boards available for the first 3 years, but by memory, no one won then either.

 

[TenTimes]

I will say this: in leagues when my QB had a great year my fantasy team followed suit. Chris Chandler and Rich Gannon's superbowl years put my team in the playoffs. I won the title and set scoring records during Peyton's record setting year.

Last year I had Brady on a couple years and my teams bombed, and while that's partly due to losing a high pick, I've come back from 1st or 2nd round busts before, but I could never recover from mediocre QB play last year.

How many teams with Brees missed the playoffs last year. Not many I bet.

IMO QB is the best position to reach for. HAVE to have a good one.

 

[Native]

I think it depends which sleeper QB you like in rounds 6-10 and how confident you are of their success. Last year, I pegged Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers as top 10 QB's who could be had in the later rounds - so I passed on the middle tier QB's in rounds 4-5. I was wrong about Eli, but right about Rodgers and my draft was a success as a result. This year, I'm not as certain about the sleeper QB's - noone stands out as a top 10 QB. Maybe Cassel or Big Ben but Im still not convinced....

Anyway, if you feel like youve identified 1-2 strong sleeper QB's who can finish in the top 10, then Id be patient and let the draft come to you.

 

[Chaz]

Why is it thought to be so smart to try to hit on one of several QBs in the mid-later rounds, because one of them will pan out? Of course this is the case. However, it is also the case that several RBs taken in the middle rounds will pan out.

For some reason, many owners feel that the smarter move is to go with the herd and take the "scarce" RBs and then roll the dice on QB. The other way around can work just as well, IMO. The key is, as ever, to get the right player. Nothing special here, just that the player can be of any position.

It's not a reach if you are right, no matter the player (within reason, of course. A top kicker would not be taken in the 2nd round, etc...)

No, not really, as in most leagues you will draft 2-3 QB's mid rounds to hit on 1 starter, where you have to start 2 to 3 RB's and you need the "sure" thing in the early rounds.I can say this.. in the last 4 years in my league, someone who drafted a QB in the first 4 rounds has not won the championship. I don't have the draft boards available for the first 3 years, but by memory, no one won then either.

Point well made. I would only note that there are (perhaps) fewer "sure thing" RBs in the early rounds than the common perception may be.

 

[brakeyawself]

Just dont reach for Cutler. Youre better off with Palmer and maybe Schaub imo.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I just wanted to post in a couple more threads about how I think Trent Edwards is going to be a strong scoring option that no-huddle offense.

 

[awesomeness]

I'm reaching for Matt Cassell a round or 2 above his ADP if i can't get Brady, Manning, or Brees.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

when you look at your lineup and your opponets lineup, the first thing you usually look at is the QB position....if you don't have one of the top guys, you usually know you are down a few points right off the top....I want to be the guy that teams know they need to make up points because I have a good QB....I generally draft a top QB pretty high because I think I can dominate the guys in my league in the later rounds picking up value/talent at the other positions....it is hard to catch up to the top QB sometimes....

with that said, I will be hypocritical with the fact that guys that dont have a ton of confidence in their drafting ability will usually draft a QB high to guarantee them points each week....so you take advatge of that maybe....take a top qb and dominate them the rest of the way...

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Cutler, Rivers, Rodgers, Warner, Cassell were all probably taken in the 5th or later last year so, I dunno, good luck with that.

 

[a_troll00]

My plan for this season is to grab Palmer in the 6th to 8th rounds, depending upon how fast QBs are falling off the board. IMO, he has a great shot of breaking back into the top 5 this year.

I've really been thinking about who to back him up with, but I'll go out on a limb here. Kerry Collins. No, seriously, Kerry Collins. People have been talking alot about Garrard being a great value, but Collins is going to put up better numbers this year. How? First, he's got a better offensive line than Garrard. Collins also has better weapons overall in Chris Johnson, Gage, Washington, and a very underrated Bo Scaife. Jeff Fisher says he wants to be more aggressive in the passing game, and Collins' arm is looking really good so far. Collins is also flying far under the radar this year, he'll be available in the late rounds leaving you plenty of time to grab a TE, and more depth to the RB and WR positions.

Palmer and Collins to the championship!

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I reached for Brees last year, but that's the only time it's really worked out. It just seems like other owners end up with a great RB or WR and then find a pretty decent QB to pick up the slack. The guy who reaches for the QB ends up with a good QB and a shortage of talent at the other positions. Plus they often wait a long time for a backup (maybe to compensate for reaching) and don't have alot of options if there's an injury or the player underperforms.

There are maybe six top QBs, and one of them is going to have a banner year. But I don't know who it will be. Just not worth the risk most times.

 

[puckalicious]

Cutler, Rivers, Rodgers, Warner, Cassell were all probably taken in the 5th or later last year so, I dunno, good luck with that.

Not sure what you're referring to with this post...But it made me look up where these QBs were drafted in my main redraft league last year (FBG standard w/6pt pass TDs).Cutler: 6 (6th taken)Rivers: 10 (15th taken)Rodgers: 12 (18th taken)Warner: 12 (19th taken)Cassell: undrafted (like in every other league)Every year there is late QB value available. This year I would target Schaub/Palmer in mid rounds (6th/7th) but I have a feeling their ADPs will jump too high by preseason. You have to like the chances of one of Hass/Garrard/Edwards/Orton/Cassell to greatly outperform their ADP.

 

[Ned]

I'm reaching for Matt Cassell a round or 2 above his ADP if i can't get Brady, Manning, or Brees.

Matt Cassell is going to be exhibit A of why you don't reach for QBs.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Cutler, Rivers, Rodgers, Warner, Cassell were all probably taken in the 5th or later last year so, I dunno, good luck with that.

Not sure what you're referring to with this post...But it made me look up where these QBs were drafted in my main redraft league last year (FBG standard w/6pt pass TDs).Cutler: 6 (6th taken)Rivers: 10 (15th taken)Rodgers: 12 (18th taken)Warner: 12 (19th taken)Cassell: undrafted (like in every other league)Every year there is late QB value available. This year I would target Schaub/Palmer in mid rounds (6th/7th) but I have a feeling their ADPs will jump too high by preseason. You have to like the chances of one of Hass/Garrard/Edwards/Orton/Cassell to greatly outperform their ADP.

My point is that if half of the top 10 was drafted late or even undrafted I don't see the big advantage some are positing in drafting a QB early.The flipside is that there are also DeAngelos in the 5th and Slatons in the 12th. If you're better at picking FF hits in positions other than QB I would go for the sure thing.

 

[Eviloutsider]

I struggle with the same thing in my league as well (6 pt TDs) as we will more than likely go through Brees and Brady in the first, Manning and Rodgers in the second, and Warner, Rivers, and maybe McNabb and Romo in the third. I love to get an anchor to help the team but I can't handle paying those high prices on average players so I will more than likely wait. In mock drafts I usually go with the trident approach, grabbing three QBs in mid rounds (Schaub, Edwards, and ???).

 

[Manster]

i took Brees in the 2nd last yr and it paid off. of course hitting on T.Jones and Slaton didnt hurt.

this yr i'm targeting Mcnabb, Schaub, Palmer, Romo, Ryan.

this yr i'm feeling like RB and WR depth is very important early. lots of questions at RB, and WR talent falls off a cliff after about the 5 round.

it just feels like a very good yr to get good value in mid to late rounds at QB, imo.

 

[Manster]

when you look at your lineup and your opponets lineup, the first thing you usually look at is the QB position....if you don't have one of the top guys, you usually know you are down a few points right off the top....I want to be the guy that teams know they need to make up points because I have a good QB....I generally draft a top QB pretty high because I think I can dominate the guys in my league in the later rounds picking up value/talent at the other positions....it is hard to catch up to the top QB sometimes....with that said, I will be hypocritical with the fact that guys that dont have a ton of confidence in their drafting ability will usually draft a QB high to guarantee them points each week....so you take advatge of that maybe....take a top qb and dominate them the rest of the way...

i think the guys in my post above will be close to the top tier, and can be had much later than, say Brees/Manning/Brady.oh yea, i forgot Hass. i've coupled im with some of the guys above in mocks, and felt pretty good about it.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

RalphM - This is the second thread you have started to seemingly talk yourself into taking a QB early this year. So I would do it. Well, I wouldn't do it, but I would do it if I were you. Because there is nothing worse in FF than going against your gut and having your gut be right.

 

[Wu-banger]

I have had great success targeting QB's late and not wasting an early pick on them.

Last year the 2 QBs I targeted were K. Warner and A. Rodgers in redrafts...

Year before it was Hasselbeck .... before that Palmer.

I have had success building Championships with lower ADP QBs.

 

[habsfan]

I took Warner late last year but I don't see it as wise drafting as much as I see it as "saving my bacon". It worked out great but is more likely not to on average. I would have struggled at QB all year without him and I have learned my lesson somewhat.

 

[Darko M]

Fantasy 'sharks' are just obsessed with finding value... but more often than not your value picks turn out to be duds. For every person who struck gold with Warner or Rodgers last year there were 6-7 others who were scrambling after Palmer, Delhomme, Hasselback, Kitna, etc turned out to be duds.

In a 6 point per TD league you're putting your season at risk waiting for a sleeper QB.

I'm looking at last years 1st and 2nd round: 3 of the first 4 QBs drafted finished top 10 at their position (only Brady finished out of the top 10). Compare that to running backs, where only 4 of the first 13 finished top 10 at their position. And WRs selected during the first 2 rounds, only 2 of the first 7 selected finished top 10 at their position.

It appears going with the stud QB is a safe pick in the first couple rounds.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I'm looking at last years 1st and 2nd round: 3 of the first 4 QBs drafted finished top 10 at their position (only Brady finished out of the top 10). Compare that to running backs, where only 4 of the first 13 finished top 10 at their position. And WRs selected during the first 2 rounds, only 2 of the first 7 selected finished top 10 at their position.It appears going with the stud QB is a safe pick in the first couple rounds.

Taking Brady 1st round last year was hardly safe. Also, if 3 of 4 finished top ten, that means 6 of ten QBs in the Top Ten were taken later. Plus, the scarcity factor does not make for a clean comparison between QB and RB/WR. But if we all drafted the same way, it wouldn't be much fun.

 

[-jb-]

A. Based on your scoring system, look at your top 12 QBs' projections and ADPs

B. Determine the QBs that have higher projections and later ADPs than at least 2 other QBs

C. Calculate the point variance between that QB and your next highest projected QB with a later ADP

D. Target the two QBs with the largest trailing variances as your QB1 and QB2

 

[Stinkin Ref]

A. Based on your scoring system, look at your top 12 QBs' projections and ADPsB. Determine the QBs that have higher projections and later ADPs than at least 2 other QBsC. Calculate the point variance between that QB and your next highest projected QB with a later ADPD. Target the two QBs with the largest trailing variances as your QB1 and QB2

have no idea how to do this and won't do this but it sounds like

 

[-jb-]

A. Based on your scoring system, look at your top 12 QBs' projections and ADPs

B. Determine the QBs that have higher projections and later ADPs than at least 2 other QBs

C. Calculate the point variance between that QB and your next highest projected QB with a later ADP

D. Target the two QBs with the largest trailing variances as your QB1 and QB2

have no idea how to do this and won't do this but it sounds like

Sorry, I was trying to keep the wording to a minimum and it probably lost it's clarity. Here goes...for the purpose of discussion, I'm going to use Dodds projections, a standard scoring system, and standard ADP. However, the real value of this exercise comes when you insert your own projections, league scoring system, and league ADP.A. Top 12 QB projections

1. Tom Brady - 358 / 2.04

2. Drew Brees - 339 / 1.10

3. Peyton Manning - 327 / 2.10

4. Aaron Rodgers - 315 / 3.10

5. Philip Rivers - 312 / 4.01

6. Donovan McNabb - 298 / 5.04

7. Kurt Warner - 286 / 4.02

8. Tony Romo - 285 / 4.09

9. Jay Cutler - 279 / 6.10

10. Ben Roethlisberger - 278 / 8.03

11. Matt Ryan - 273 / 6.03

12. Matt Schaub - 272 / 6.08

13. David Garrard - 269 / 10.12

B. Players with higher projections and later ADPs than at least 2 other QBs

1. Donovan McNabb (more points than Warner & Romo, but can be had at 5.04 vs. 4.0x)

2. Ben Roethlisberger (more points than Ryan & Schaub, but can be had at 8.03 vs. 6.0x)

C. Projected Point Variance

1. Donovan McNabb - Next highest projection with a later ADP is Cutler. Point variance is McNabb (298) - Cutler (279) = 19 pts

2. Ben Roethlisberger - Next highest projection with a later ADP is Garrard. Point variance is Big Ben (278) - Garrard (269) = 9 pts

D. Target 2 QBs

In this case, there are only two that qualify, so McNabb and Big Ben would be your guys. If you miss on McNabb, you go with Big Ben.

To reiterate, this exercise means much, much more to you if you apply your own projections, scoring, and league ADP.

Just a mathematical way to reenforce what your gut is already telling you.

 

[Darko M]

I'm looking at last years 1st and 2nd round: 3 of the first 4 QBs drafted finished top 10 at their position (only Brady finished out of the top 10). Compare that to running backs, where only 4 of the first 13 finished top 10 at their position. And WRs selected during the first 2 rounds, only 2 of the first 7 selected finished top 10 at their position.It appears going with the stud QB is a safe pick in the first couple rounds.

Taking Brady 1st round last year was hardly safe. Also, if 3 of 4 finished top ten, that means 6 of ten QBs in the Top Ten were taken later. Plus, the scarcity factor does not make for a clean comparison between QB and RB/WR. But if we all drafted the same way, it wouldn't be much fun.

Trying to understand your reason...of course there were 6 more QBs drafted later that finished in the top 10...just like there were 6 more RBs that finished in the top 10 that were drafted out of the 2nd round, and there were 8 WRs drafted outside the 2nd round that finished in the top 10.My point was that it appears a bit safer selecting the "sure thing" in a top tier QB, who tend to be more consistent year to year vs RBs/WRs who are more likely to get injured or just plain suck and drop from the top 10.In my 6-point per TD league I'm going QB in the 1st or 2nd...an added bonus would be starting a QB run.

 

[Darko M]

A. Based on your scoring system, look at your top 12 QBs' projections and ADPs

B. Determine the QBs that have higher projections and later ADPs than at least 2 other QBs

C. Calculate the point variance between that QB and your next highest projected QB with a later ADP

D. Target the two QBs with the largest trailing variances as your QB1 and QB2

have no idea how to do this and won't do this but it sounds like

Sorry, I was trying to keep the wording to a minimum and it probably lost it's clarity. Here goes...for the purpose of discussion, I'm going to use Dodds projections, a standard scoring system, and standard ADP. However, the real value of this exercise comes when you insert your own projections, league scoring system, and league ADP.A. Top 12 QB projections

1. Tom Brady - 358 / 2.04

2. Drew Brees - 339 / 1.10

3. Peyton Manning - 327 / 2.10

4. Aaron Rodgers - 315 / 3.10

5. Philip Rivers - 312 / 4.01

6. Donovan McNabb - 298 / 5.04

7. Kurt Warner - 286 / 4.02

8. Tony Romo - 285 / 4.09

9. Jay Cutler - 279 / 6.10

10. Ben Roethlisberger - 278 / 8.03

11. Matt Ryan - 273 / 6.03

12. Matt Schaub - 272 / 6.08

13. David Garrard - 269 / 10.12

B. Players with higher projections and later ADPs than at least 2 other QBs

1. Donovan McNabb (more points than Warner & Romo, but can be had at 5.04 vs. 4.0x)

2. Ben Roethlisberger (more points than Ryan & Schaub, but can be had at 8.03 vs. 6.0x)

C. Projected Point Variance

1. Donovan McNabb - Next highest projection with a later ADP is Cutler. Point variance is McNabb (298) - Cutler (279) = 19 pts

2. Ben Roethlisberger - Next highest projection with a later ADP is Garrard. Point variance is Big Ben (278) - Garrard (269) = 9 pts

D. Target 2 QBs

In this case, there are only two that qualify, so McNabb and Big Ben would be your guys. If you miss on McNabb, you go with Big Ben.

To reiterate, this exercise means much, much more to you if you apply your own projections, scoring, and league ADP.

Just a mathematical way to reenforce what your gut is already telling you.

Appreciate the time you spent on that... but projections and ADP are far from reliable.

 

[-jb-]

A. Based on your scoring system, look at your top 12 QBs' projections and ADPs

B. Determine the QBs that have higher projections and later ADPs than at least 2 other QBs

C. Calculate the point variance between that QB and your next highest projected QB with a later ADP

D. Target the two QBs with the largest trailing variances as your QB1 and QB2

have no idea how to do this and won't do this but it sounds like

Sorry, I was trying to keep the wording to a minimum and it probably lost it's clarity. Here goes...for the purpose of discussion, I'm going to use Dodds projections, a standard scoring system, and standard ADP. However, the real value of this exercise comes when you insert your own projections, league scoring system, and league ADP.A. Top 12 QB projections

1. Tom Brady - 358 / 2.04

2. Drew Brees - 339 / 1.10

3. Peyton Manning - 327 / 2.10

4. Aaron Rodgers - 315 / 3.10

5. Philip Rivers - 312 / 4.01

6. Donovan McNabb - 298 / 5.04

7. Kurt Warner - 286 / 4.02

8. Tony Romo - 285 / 4.09

9. Jay Cutler - 279 / 6.10

10. Ben Roethlisberger - 278 / 8.03

11. Matt Ryan - 273 / 6.03

12. Matt Schaub - 272 / 6.08

13. David Garrard - 269 / 10.12

B. Players with higher projections and later ADPs than at least 2 other QBs

1. Donovan McNabb (more points than Warner & Romo, but can be had at 5.04 vs. 4.0x)

2. Ben Roethlisberger (more points than Ryan & Schaub, but can be had at 8.03 vs. 6.0x)

C. Projected Point Variance

1. Donovan McNabb - Next highest projection with a later ADP is Cutler. Point variance is McNabb (298) - Cutler (279) = 19 pts

2. Ben Roethlisberger - Next highest projection with a later ADP is Garrard. Point variance is Big Ben (278) - Garrard (269) = 9 pts

D. Target 2 QBs

In this case, there are only two that qualify, so McNabb and Big Ben would be your guys. If you miss on McNabb, you go with Big Ben.

To reiterate, this exercise means much, much more to you if you apply your own projections, scoring, and league ADP.

Just a mathematical way to reenforce what your gut is already telling you.

Appreciate the time you spent on that... but projections and ADP are far from reliable.

To each his own.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Trying to understand your reason...of course there were 6 more QBs drafted later that finished in the top 10...just like there were 6 more RBs that finished in the top 10 that were drafted out of the 2nd round, and there were 8 WRs drafted outside the 2nd round that finished in the top 10.My point was that it appears a bit safer selecting the "sure thing" in a top tier QB, who tend to be more consistent year to year vs RBs/WRs who are more likely to get injured or just plain suck and drop from the top 10.

I just meant that, since there are fewer QBs than the other positions the ramifications of the pick not panning out seem to behose posititions, too.greater. Yes, I realize you have to fill more roster spots with I guess it just depends on preferences.

 

[andrew11]

year after year people say not to reach and grab a QB early. In my 2 champshipnship season I had 2 studs at QB. I had Romo 2 years ago and Brees last year.

Grab a stud. It will be one less spot to worry about come Sunday morning.

 

[sinatravolta]

It doesn't make sense to compare early round QBs making the Top 10 QBs compared to RBs/WRs making the top 10 RBs/WRs.

Being a top 10 QB does not mean you were above average for a fantasy starter whereas being a top 10 RB/WR does. Sorry - but if you took a QB early and they came out as QB9 on the year - that does not make it a successful pick. Whereas if you took an RB or WR there and they came out as RB9 or WR9 - it probably was successful.

You need to do something more like who did they compare to the average starter (QB - take avg of 6th and 7th place, RB take average of 12th/13th, WR take average of 18th/19th). If you were well above that average starter - great pick. If you were slightly above it - good pick. If you were below it - then it was a bad pick.

 

[RalphMouth]

RalphM - This is the second thread you have started to seemingly talk yourself into taking a QB early this year. So I would do it. Well, I wouldn't do it, but I would do it if I were you. Because there is nothing worse in FF than going against your gut and having your gut be right.

I'm leaning that direction but have never done it before so it feels kind of 'dirty' or 'illegal' certainly not my norm but as mentioned I'm sick of owning an avg to below avg QB.

 

[WeaponX]

Whats the consensus for leagues that start 2Qb's? I'm in an 8 team league that starts 2 Qb's(32 teams overall so its not a small league, just small divisions with their own draft board). I have the 2nd pick in this league and I really debating taking Brees with that pick for the simple reason that I have been a victim of waiting to take a QB. It seems that year after year the team that wins the championship has a Brady, Peyton, Brees, etc plus a solid #2.

In this league there is always a QB run mid 2nd round. If that happens then more likely Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodger, and maybe one other could be gone by my pick at 2.7. After the top 3 or 4 Rb's the field levels off with guys with a bunch of question marks. So somebody might be able to be had a little later 10-15 ranked that is just a good as somebody inside the top 10.

 

[SSOG]

Appreciate the time you spent on that... but projections and ADP are far from reliable.

If not projections and ADP, what do you draft based on? Hair color and astrological sign?When you're drafting, you're trying to pick the guy who you PROJECT will do well this year BEFORE HE'S PICKED BY SOMEONE ELSE. No matter what method or reasoning or justifications or anything else someone comes up with, that's how everyone drafts. Some might use more precise projections, some might use less precise projections, but everyone is projecting to some degree or another. Also, ADP always factors in, as well- if you thought Jerious Norwood was going to be the #1 fantasy RB, you still wouldn't take him in the first, since you could just as easily wait until the second and still grab him (or the third, or the fourth, etc).

Whats the consensus for leagues that start 2Qb's? I'm in an 8 team league that starts 2 Qb's(32 teams overall so its not a small league, just small divisions with their own draft board). I have the 2nd pick in this league and I really debating taking Brees with that pick for the simple reason that I have been a victim of waiting to take a QB. It seems that year after year the team that wins the championship has a Brady, Peyton, Brees, etc plus a solid #2.In this league there is always a QB run mid 2nd round. If that happens then more likely Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodger, and maybe one other could be gone by my pick at 2.7. After the top 3 or 4 Rb's the field levels off with guys with a bunch of question marks. So somebody might be able to be had a little later 10-15 ranked that is just a good as somebody inside the top 10.

Again, when you pick is a result of positional scarcity. In a league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, and 8 WRs... the entire first round should be devoted to WRs (and probably the second and third rounds, too). In a league that starts 3 QBs, 1 RB, and 1 WR, then your first three picks better be QBs. As a result, knowing that you start 2 QBs doesn't help much unless we know how many RBs and WRs you start, too.Simple exercise- divide the number of starters at a position in your fantasy league by the number of starters at that position in the NFL to determine the positional scarcity. Player value is mostly a result of positional scarcity (although scoring factors in, too- TEs outside of the top 10 generally score so little that even in a start 4 TE league, TEs won't ever shoot up the draft board except for the real studs).