Appreciate the time you spent on that... but projections and ADP are far from reliable.
If not projections and ADP, what do you draft based on? Hair color and astrological sign?When you're drafting, you're trying to pick the guy who you PROJECT will do well this year BEFORE HE'S PICKED BY SOMEONE ELSE. No matter what method or reasoning or justifications or anything else someone comes up with, that's how everyone drafts. Some might use more precise projections, some might use less precise projections, but everyone is projecting to some degree or another. Also, ADP always factors in, as well- if you thought Jerious Norwood was going to be the #1 fantasy RB, you still wouldn't take him in the first, since you could just as easily wait until the second and still grab him (or the third, or the fourth, etc).
Whats the consensus for leagues that start 2Qb's? I'm in an 8 team league that starts 2 Qb's(32 teams overall so its not a small league, just small divisions with their own draft board). I have the 2nd pick in this league and I really debating taking Brees with that pick for the simple reason that I have been a victim of waiting to take a QB. It seems that year after year the team that wins the championship has a Brady, Peyton, Brees, etc plus a solid #2.In this league there is always a QB run mid 2nd round. If that happens then more likely Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodger, and maybe one other could be gone by my pick at 2.7. After the top 3 or 4 Rb's the field levels off with guys with a bunch of question marks. So somebody might be able to be had a little later 10-15 ranked that is just a good as somebody inside the top 10.
Again, when you pick is a result of positional scarcity. In a league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, and 8 WRs... the entire first round should be devoted to WRs (and probably the second and third rounds, too). In a league that starts 3 QBs, 1 RB, and 1 WR, then your first three picks better be QBs. As a result, knowing that you start 2 QBs doesn't help much unless we know how many RBs and WRs you start, too.Simple exercise- divide the number of starters at a position in your fantasy league by the number of starters at that position in the NFL to determine the positional scarcity. Player value is mostly a result of positional scarcity (although scoring factors in, too- TEs outside of the top 10 generally score so little that even in a start 4 TE league, TEs won't ever shoot up the draft board except for the real studs).
