Judge Smails
Footballguy
So picking 10th in a 12 team 1/2 PPR, 6 point TD league with bonuses for 100/100/300. I like my roster construction much better when I go RB/RB and hammering WR's 3-5. I've taken AJ or GW in mocks and just don't like my teams when I go WR early from that spot.
The question is which RBs? Assuming the guy picking 9 goes AJ Brown, I will have my first choice of Taylor, Barkley, Gibbs, Henry, Williams. Those are the 5 I'm considering. Out of all of those guys, the guy I feel most solid about believe it or not is Henry. I think he's a lock for 15 TD's in Baltimore. I'm not afraid of the cliff - matter of fact I'd bet on him staying healthy over all the others, and he's showed zero wear. Still looks like a beast in camp. If Gus Edwards can get 12 TD's then what's he gonna get? Lamar doesn't vulture short TD's like Allen and Hurts. Not worried about the O-Line - he had worse at Tennessee. They'll be playing ahead vs from behind so he should get more carries than last year. The question is who to get besides him and what's the right strategy to ensure I get both?
Strategy 1 - I can just take Henry at 10 even though it's a reach with ADP. If I do that great shot Taylor, Barkley and Gibbs go, leaving me with Henry/Williams. That actually was my preferred combo until recently, only I was going to draft Kyren first then Henry. But then the punt return news. I'm starting to think that's not a big deal.
Strategy 2 - Take one of the other 3 first knowing that there is a 80+% chance that Henry will be there in the early 2nd. He's there in every mock and he's just not a sexy pick, so may slip through the turn.
So how to rank them? Interesting, as even with higher rankings than the others guys like Barkley/Taylor are at the top of Evan Silva's shy away list. Both have rushing QB's that steal TD's (while Lamar scrambles for some rushing TD's, when they are down close he hands it to RB's - not the same). I got burned by Taylor when he was the consensus #1 so admittedly have a sour taste in my mouth with him. And it would drive me nuts all year to see Hurts Tush Push TD's that could be Barkley's. So realistically I don't want those guys. Gibbs? I like him more than the other 2. Love his talent and love the offense. Montgomery is still there, and he had the hamstring. Williams? It all comes down to whether we believe Corum is a real threat as McVay has never split carries with RB's. He rides one. After last year's performance I would have to think it's Williams workhorse role to lose. He would have to fumble or get hurt for Corum to make a dent.
Gibbs won't make it back to me. I'm sure of that. So if I go Henry first I have to be good with Williams. Or I can take Gibbs first and then roll the dice that there is a very good chance Henry is there at 2.02.
Am I crazy to be discounting Barkley and Taylor and taking these other guys?
The question is which RBs? Assuming the guy picking 9 goes AJ Brown, I will have my first choice of Taylor, Barkley, Gibbs, Henry, Williams. Those are the 5 I'm considering. Out of all of those guys, the guy I feel most solid about believe it or not is Henry. I think he's a lock for 15 TD's in Baltimore. I'm not afraid of the cliff - matter of fact I'd bet on him staying healthy over all the others, and he's showed zero wear. Still looks like a beast in camp. If Gus Edwards can get 12 TD's then what's he gonna get? Lamar doesn't vulture short TD's like Allen and Hurts. Not worried about the O-Line - he had worse at Tennessee. They'll be playing ahead vs from behind so he should get more carries than last year. The question is who to get besides him and what's the right strategy to ensure I get both?
Strategy 1 - I can just take Henry at 10 even though it's a reach with ADP. If I do that great shot Taylor, Barkley and Gibbs go, leaving me with Henry/Williams. That actually was my preferred combo until recently, only I was going to draft Kyren first then Henry. But then the punt return news. I'm starting to think that's not a big deal.
Strategy 2 - Take one of the other 3 first knowing that there is a 80+% chance that Henry will be there in the early 2nd. He's there in every mock and he's just not a sexy pick, so may slip through the turn.
So how to rank them? Interesting, as even with higher rankings than the others guys like Barkley/Taylor are at the top of Evan Silva's shy away list. Both have rushing QB's that steal TD's (while Lamar scrambles for some rushing TD's, when they are down close he hands it to RB's - not the same). I got burned by Taylor when he was the consensus #1 so admittedly have a sour taste in my mouth with him. And it would drive me nuts all year to see Hurts Tush Push TD's that could be Barkley's. So realistically I don't want those guys. Gibbs? I like him more than the other 2. Love his talent and love the offense. Montgomery is still there, and he had the hamstring. Williams? It all comes down to whether we believe Corum is a real threat as McVay has never split carries with RB's. He rides one. After last year's performance I would have to think it's Williams workhorse role to lose. He would have to fumble or get hurt for Corum to make a dent.
Gibbs won't make it back to me. I'm sure of that. So if I go Henry first I have to be good with Williams. Or I can take Gibbs first and then roll the dice that there is a very good chance Henry is there at 2.02.
Am I crazy to be discounting Barkley and Taylor and taking these other guys?
