King Kickoff
Footballguy
Is he not a viable option as number two running back on a fantasy team? :( King Kickoff
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Reasons Steven Jackson is not (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter King Kickoff
- Start date
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Who is this Steven Jaxson you speak of? 
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Steven Jackson of the Rams of courseWho is this Steven Jaxson you speak of?
T
trader jake
Guest
1) marshall faulk2) the rams pass the ball a lot and any game they get behind early jackson could end up with under 10 carries3) injury concerns 
Aussie Cowboy
Footballguy
Cut him some slack, his avatar rocks.Who is this Steven Jaxson you speak of?
Jim Otto
Footballguy
1) Faulk will see the field a lot but as a receiver and a decoy as well as running the ball. His impact will be minor.2) Jackson is a reasonable pass blocker IMO and can catch too.1) marshall faulk
2) the rams pass the ball a lot and any game they get behind early jackson could end up with under 10 carries
3) injury concerns
3) ANY RB can be injured. The Rams also installed the new field turf artificial surface which should help all of their players stay healthy longer.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Yes thats just as obvious Chuck. I was just cracking jokes on making this forum into the national spelling bee championship.I'm pretty sure that wasSteven Jackson of the Rams of courseWho is this Steven Jaxson you speak of?
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Good points. For some reason people think because he's a bigger back that he can't catch. Recieving is one of his strengths, not weaknesses.1) Faulk will see the field a lot but as a receiver and a decoy as well as running the ball. His impact will be minor.2) Jackson is a reasonable pass blocker IMO and can catch too.1) marshall faulk
2) the rams pass the ball a lot and any game they get behind early jackson could end up with under 10 carries
3) injury concerns
3) ANY RB can be injured. The Rams also installed the new field turf artificial surface which should help all of their players stay healthy longer.
This is a repeat of a response I gave in an earlier topic - copy and pasteI believe Jackson is a viable, even a strong number 2 RB (12 team league)I have Jackson in a dynasty, I state that only for full disclosure. The questions I have relative to Faulk are as follows:1 - What level of performance has Faulk retained as another year has passed and his injuries continue to mount (no post-season injuries I am aware of, but several over the last few years)? He was among the elite all time backs during his prime, but I truly did not see the same back last year. Granted, the O line play was part of the problem, but Faulk's moves were not at the level he demonstrated at the apex of his career.2 - The switch over to Field turf from Astro turf (anybody who has played on Astro turf will immediately rub their elbow as they relive the turf burn). Astro turf, despite all its disadvantages, is an extremely fast and sure surface to run on. I think the switch to Field turf will affect Faulk's performance more than Jackson's.3 - Faulk's 2004 short yardage production was inconsistent. Jackson did not fare exceedingly well either, but I really feel last year's failure for the whole offense was due in large part to a flawed offensive line. Jackson rarely had holes to run through at the first level and often had contact with defensive lineman. Faulk had better lateral moves and jukes, faring better, but many of his plays were to the outside, as they should have been.4 - Last year, Faulk was very vocal in the media about being a competitor and fighting to hold top dog spot in the Rams' depth chart. This year, the title has been handed to Jackson and Faulk has not spoke up to counter it or claim he can take the starting position. Not even the "If he doesn't earn it and I step in, I am not giving up the starting spot" talk like we hear from Garcia.5 - An off-field issue that may or may not be of relevance; Faulk used to advertise for a dietary supplement that contained ephedra. However, regulations handed down from the NFL corporate office prohibited any endorsement by an active player for dietary supplements. This is why the Denver Broncos stopped wearing all the EAS gear during their interviews. Faulk is now prominently in advertising for another weight loss product. I am not certain if this is a violation but if it is, it is worth watching. Typically, when celebrity-athletes start accepting advertising money that is not related to sports specific items, they are strongly contemplating retirement and acting like businessmen. Of course, he has advertised in the past...All things considered, I do not see Marshall being as much a vulture as others believe. Remember, two years ago, Arlen Harris and Lamar Gordon both had nice games when the St Louis machine was clicking without any significant involvement in the passing game.I have Jackson as a #12 - 15 RB, especially if the Offensive line shapes up well in the preseason.
Floyd The Barber
Footballguy
While I agree Jackson will likely open the season as the goal line back, if he proves ineffective Faulk could easily reassume that role.I've watched football for three-plus decades and Faulk is probably the best between the tackles, "crease" goal line runners I've ever seen. His patience and ability to wait for that sliver of daylight - and his short area quickness to exploit the crease - are second to none, even now. And he never takes a direct hit. More often than not he goes in standing up.If Jaxson fails to produce at the stripe, they'd be fools not to turn to Faulk.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
We'll get to know a little about Steven Jackson this year. Their schedule is very favorable......if he doesn't have a solid YPC, I'll be very disappointed in him.I'll be looking at that more than his overall stats depending upon Marshall Faulks involvement in the offense. If Martz did use Marshall, I couldn't blame him for that as he's still a solid football player when healthy.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
Next year folks. This looks to be the last step to finally pulling the cord on Faulk. Jackson will play a lot but I would NEVER draft him ahead of Bell. Bell's upside for the current year is far better. A better running team and weak options to unseat him. As long as Faulk is playing expect Jackson to get less touches and as we know less touches equals less chances of producing. Not saying hew won't be ok.. I just don't see an upside this year but a keeper for sure..
I love posters who put up a topic like this, and then stand back in their first post, offer no reasonable argument, and expect others to take their word for the statement just because they posted it.
My thoughts - including my material from the Steven Jackson spotlight thread with some new embellishment:
Looking at the Rams' history under Martz, he has run the ball erratically but his number of RB touches is remarkably consistent: 434, 459, 422, 434, & 434 from '00-'04. So Im going to base my predictions on 440 RB touches. That number looks like it is at or near the magic number for touches by STL RBs under Martz.
Faulk in '00 & '01 averaged in the 5.2/5.3 ypc range before his ypc started dropping off as injuries & age started effecting him. Jackson had a 5.0 ypc last year. Given Faulk's ypc when healthy in this O, it seems reasonable that Jackson can maintain his 5.0 ypc. The Rams' offense with their passing game, Holt, Bruce, & and emerging Curtis will leave some wide lanes to run through.
Faulk under Martz was also at or over the 10.0 ypr before he starting going downhill in effectiveness. Jackson averaged 9.9 ypr last season. That number also seems sustainable given the evidence, though I'm going to lower it to 9.0 to be a little conservative.
As far as Faulk, we saw when he was traded to STL that he went off on a huge binge, averaging 5.3-5.5 ypc, 9.2-12.0 ypr, and 20 TDs per year the first 3 years. Since that time his ypc dropped to 4.5 in ’02 and now hovers around 4.0 ypc over the past 2 years. That’s a cataclysmic dropoff. Similarly, his ypr has dropped into the 6s, spiraling steadily downward from 6.7 ypr to 6.2 ypr over the past 3 years. His TD production has gone from 10 to 11 to 4 over the past 3 years. Faulk’s career is clearly in a free fall. That’s not denigrating him – anyone who has been as productive as he has been for so long is sure to see their skills deteriorate seriously as they near the end of their career, especially given his size. It’s been a great ride for him, but it’s time for him to step aside & pass the torch. Only a complete fool would keep giving Faulk significant work while they have a thoroughbred like Jackson ready to run.
If the Rams under Martz post winning records, the RBs rush for a lot of TDs. If they have a .500 record or worse, they have single digit rushing TDs. I'm going to assume a winning record this year, especially given their division, so I'm going to figure the rushing TDs at 19 - right about their average when winning under Martz. I'll also throw in 4 receiving TDs. Martz has shown a distinct decline in throwing to the RBs for TDs, but I have to figure that at least part of that can be attributed to Faulk's decline - he just couldn't turn the 5 yd swing into a 40 yd TD anymore after '01.
So if we have 440 RB touches and knowing that Martz seems to like his RBs to catch about 100 balls per year, I'll use 340 rushes & 100 catches. That is completely consistent with Martz being a coach who gives his RBs the fewest carries in the league. I'll give Jackson 70% of the rushes and 50% of the catches, since I do think Faulk will play more in passing downs than in 1st & 2nd down situations, where I think Jackson gets the bulk of the work.
So, given the numbers I listed above, this is what I end up with for Jackson:
238 rushes/1190 rush yds/13 rush TDs
50 catches/450 rec yds/2 rec TDs
288 total touches/1640 total yds/15 total TDs
That would place Jackson as the #6 RB on the FBG projection list. Even with his downside, I can't see him dipping below #10/#11 unless he were to get hurt.
That still leaves:
100 rushes/420 rush yds/4 rush TDs
50 catches/310 rec yds/2 rec TDs
150 touches/730 total yds/6 total TDs for Faulk. That still seems reasonable given the erosion in Faulk's skills but Martz's desire to still involve him in the offense.
My thoughts - including my material from the Steven Jackson spotlight thread with some new embellishment:
Looking at the Rams' history under Martz, he has run the ball erratically but his number of RB touches is remarkably consistent: 434, 459, 422, 434, & 434 from '00-'04. So Im going to base my predictions on 440 RB touches. That number looks like it is at or near the magic number for touches by STL RBs under Martz.
Faulk in '00 & '01 averaged in the 5.2/5.3 ypc range before his ypc started dropping off as injuries & age started effecting him. Jackson had a 5.0 ypc last year. Given Faulk's ypc when healthy in this O, it seems reasonable that Jackson can maintain his 5.0 ypc. The Rams' offense with their passing game, Holt, Bruce, & and emerging Curtis will leave some wide lanes to run through.
Faulk under Martz was also at or over the 10.0 ypr before he starting going downhill in effectiveness. Jackson averaged 9.9 ypr last season. That number also seems sustainable given the evidence, though I'm going to lower it to 9.0 to be a little conservative.
As far as Faulk, we saw when he was traded to STL that he went off on a huge binge, averaging 5.3-5.5 ypc, 9.2-12.0 ypr, and 20 TDs per year the first 3 years. Since that time his ypc dropped to 4.5 in ’02 and now hovers around 4.0 ypc over the past 2 years. That’s a cataclysmic dropoff. Similarly, his ypr has dropped into the 6s, spiraling steadily downward from 6.7 ypr to 6.2 ypr over the past 3 years. His TD production has gone from 10 to 11 to 4 over the past 3 years. Faulk’s career is clearly in a free fall. That’s not denigrating him – anyone who has been as productive as he has been for so long is sure to see their skills deteriorate seriously as they near the end of their career, especially given his size. It’s been a great ride for him, but it’s time for him to step aside & pass the torch. Only a complete fool would keep giving Faulk significant work while they have a thoroughbred like Jackson ready to run.
If the Rams under Martz post winning records, the RBs rush for a lot of TDs. If they have a .500 record or worse, they have single digit rushing TDs. I'm going to assume a winning record this year, especially given their division, so I'm going to figure the rushing TDs at 19 - right about their average when winning under Martz. I'll also throw in 4 receiving TDs. Martz has shown a distinct decline in throwing to the RBs for TDs, but I have to figure that at least part of that can be attributed to Faulk's decline - he just couldn't turn the 5 yd swing into a 40 yd TD anymore after '01.
So if we have 440 RB touches and knowing that Martz seems to like his RBs to catch about 100 balls per year, I'll use 340 rushes & 100 catches. That is completely consistent with Martz being a coach who gives his RBs the fewest carries in the league. I'll give Jackson 70% of the rushes and 50% of the catches, since I do think Faulk will play more in passing downs than in 1st & 2nd down situations, where I think Jackson gets the bulk of the work.
So, given the numbers I listed above, this is what I end up with for Jackson:
238 rushes/1190 rush yds/13 rush TDs
50 catches/450 rec yds/2 rec TDs
288 total touches/1640 total yds/15 total TDs
That would place Jackson as the #6 RB on the FBG projection list. Even with his downside, I can't see him dipping below #10/#11 unless he were to get hurt.
That still leaves:
100 rushes/420 rush yds/4 rush TDs
50 catches/310 rec yds/2 rec TDs
150 touches/730 total yds/6 total TDs for Faulk. That still seems reasonable given the erosion in Faulk's skills but Martz's desire to still involve him in the offense.
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Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I must have missed that memo. Marshall Faulk is one of the most prolific goal line backs in recent memory, and his ability in/familiarty with the Rams passing game makes him all the more likely to be involved inside the 5. If you've seen something different re: Jackson's role at the goalline, please post it b/c I'd be interested in reading that.
Right now, I am not high on Jackson because (a) I DON"T think he's assured of the goalline work and (b) Mike Martz hasn't been keen on running the ball a lot in recent years.
COlin
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Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I'm not sure I agree with some of those numbers in there, but I like your post.I think that it would be a mistake to assume Jackson will carry the rock at 5 ypc, for starters.I love posters who put up a topic like this, and then stand back in their first post, offer no reasonable argument, and expect others to take their word for the statement just because they posted it.
My thoughts - including my material from the Steven Jackson spotlight thread with some new embellishment:
Looking at the Rams' history under Martz, he has run the ball erratically but his number of RB touches is remarkably consistent: 434, 459, 422, 434, & 434 from '00-'04. So Im going to base my predictions on 440 RB touches. That number looks like it is at or near the magic number for touches by STL RBs under Martz.
Faulk in '00 & '01 averaged in the 5.2/5.3 ypc range before his ypc started dropping off as injuries & age started effecting him. Jackson had a 5.0 ypc last year. Given Faulk's ypc when healthy in this O, it seems reasonable that Jackson can maintain his 5.0 ypc. The Rams' offense with their passing game, Holt, Bruce, & and emerging Curtis will leave some wide lanes to run through.
Faulk under Martz was also at or over the 10.0 ypr before he starting going downhill in effectiveness. Jackson averaged 9.9 ypr last season. That number also seems sustainable given the evidence, though I'm going to lower it to 9.0 to be a little conservative.
As far as Faulk, we saw when he was traded to STL that he went off on a huge binge, averaging 5.3-5.5 ypc, 9.2-12.0 ypr, and 20 TDs per year the first 3 years. Since that time his ypc dropped to 4.5 in ’02 and now hovers around 4.0 ypc over the past 2 years. That’s a cataclysmic dropoff. Similarly, his ypr has dropped into the 6s, spiraling steadily downward from 6.7 ypr to 6.2 ypr over the past 3 years. His TD production has gone from 10 to 11 to 4 over the past 3 years. Faulk’s career is clearly in a free fall. That’s not denigrating him – anyone who has been as productive as he has been for so long is sure to see their skills deteriorate seriously as they near the end of their career, especially given his size. It’s been a great ride for him, but it’s time for him to step aside & pass the torch. Only a complete fool would keep giving Faulk significant work while they have a thoroughbred like Jackson ready to run.
If the Rams under Martz post winning records, the RBs rush for a lot of TDs. If they have a .500 record or worse, they have single digit rushing TDs. I'm going to assume a winning record this year, especially given their division, so I'm going to figure the rushing TDs at 19 - right about their average when winning under Martz. I'll also throw in 4 receiving TDs. Martz has shown a distinct decline in throwing to the RBs for TDs, but I have to figure that at least part of that can be attributed to Faulk's decline - he just couldn't turn the 5 yd swing into a 40 yd TD anymore after '01.
So if we have 440 RB touches and knowing that Martz seems to like his RBs to catch about 100 balls per year, I'll use 340 rushes & 100 catches. That is completely consistent with Martz being a coach who gives his RBs the fewest carries in the league. I'll give Jackson 70% of the rushes and 50% of the catches, since I do think Faulk will play more in passing downs than in 1st & 2nd down situations, where I think Jackson gets the bulk of the work.
So, given the numbers I listed above, this is what I end up with for Jackson:
238 rushes/1190 rush yds/13 rush TDs
50 catches/450 rec yds/2 rec TDs
288 total touches/1640 total yds/15 total TDs
That would place Jackson as the #6 RB on the FBG projection list. Even with his downside, I can't see him dipping below #10/#11 unless he were to get hurt.
That still leaves:
100 rushes/420 rush yds/4 rush TDs
50 catches/310 rec yds/2 rec TDs
150 touches/730 total yds/6 total TDs for Faulk. That still seems reasonable given the erosion in Faulk's skills but Martz's desire to still involve him in the offense.
Colin
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Well, Martz did say he was giving him the starting job. I think it's logical to at least assume that at least in the early part of the season he's going to be given a shot at the goaline carries. If he doesn't make the most out of those, Martz will try different ways of getting into the endzone, which he should.
Irish
Footballguy
I think Jackson's height and size will lead him to being either injured or dinged up more than the avg rb and with a quality back such as Faulk on the team I can see Jackson either sitting out some games or equally splitting carries with Faulk in others. It'll be interesting to see how much if any Martz plays both in the backfield at the same time. Jackson isn't the weaklink when it comes to pass blocking, but Faulk is one of the best at picking up the blitz and he knows this offense inside and out and for every position. For redraft leagues I would be more comfortable with alot of other backs than Jackson as my #2 rb, dynasy or keeper leagues he has more value.1) Faulk will see the field a lot but as a receiver and a decoy as well as running the ball. His impact will be minor.2) Jackson is a reasonable pass blocker IMO and can catch too.1) marshall faulk
2) the rams pass the ball a lot and any game they get behind early jackson could end up with under 10 carries
3) injury concerns
3) ANY RB can be injured. The Rams also installed the new field turf artificial surface which should help all of their players stay healthy longer.
Corrected.Faulk vs Jackson last season inside the 10 & inside the 5:
Inside the 10:
Faulk 17 carries, 0.24 ypc, FD every 5.7 carries, TD every 5.7 carries
Jackson 14 carries, 2.0 ypc, FD every 2.8 carries, TD every 4.7 carries
Inside the 5:
Faulk 13 carries, 0.46 ypc, TD every 4.3 carries
Jackson 7 carries, 1.86 ypc, TD every 2.3 carries
Jackson was clearly more prolific last year, and Faulk was actually miserable. That 0.24 ypc is not a misprint, nor is the 0.46 ypc.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Pony, I certainly understand the math you posted, but that's a REALLY small sampls as I'm sure you'd admit.More to the point, if the O-line improves, doesn't that help both guys? COlin
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I have posted many times why I think Jaxson is destined to disappoint this year. Most of it has very little to do with Jaxson himself, but more to do with the team philosophy.Over the past three years, the Rams ranked #1 with a 63.3%/36.7% pass play-to- run play ratio. In reverse, that means they have called the lowest % of running plays out of any team in the league. In fact, they have run the ball the least (total number of rushes) of all NFL teams in that time.Looking at their RB as a group, their RB have ranked 31st in carries, 30th in touches, 28th in rushing yards, and 25th in fantasy points scored over the last 3 seasons. To make matters worse, their fantasy scoring from RB has actually decreased in each season.Jaxson could be the next great running back, but until the Rams decide to run the ball more we may never find out. Factor in that Faulk is going to get the ball some (and likely a fair amount of receptions), and I see the St. Louis system generating a RB that produces an "average" or even "below average" fantasy RB2.Also, people making projections of what the team will do for total RB numbers usually forget to add in any work for "other" RBs. Over the past few years, those leftover backs (not the #1 or #2) have accounted for 10-20% of the team's RB workload, so to leave them out of the picture entirely skews the big picture.People can try to add spices and seasoning all they want, but the botom line is the Rams have not utilized their ground game very much in favor for a high octane passing attack. Until that changes, Jaxson's numbers will suffer because of it.
Thanks. I'll admit that I am somewhat optimistic - but I've got him as the #6 RB also. I think that given the history posted above, those numbers are completely obtainable. I also think one of the important things on projections like this is to give a very realistic amount of work, and I think the rushes/catches seem very reasonable. If you want to bump the ypc down a bit & the ypr down a bit, I think you'll still find Jackson a very capable FF RB - certainly at least a very good #2 RB, despite what the topic sentence avers.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
"Obtainable"I don't often like to project players in their best possible light b/c I think it sets a person up for disappointment. I have him down for
260 carries
1157 yards (4.45)
7 TDs
35 catches
256 yards (7.3)
2 TDs
Thats RB20 on my board, behind Jordan and ahead of Barlow.
I would imagine you see my numbers as the LOW side for Jackson.
EDIT: I really want to like Jackson b/c I remember how unreal Faulk was in his heyday. Getting even 75% of Faulk's old production makes him a great pick. I'm just not sure it will happen. Going to have to dig in a bit more...
Colin
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Callas Disregard
Footballguy
The problem here is that Jackson is being drafted as RB2, but "viable option" as RB2 is his CEILING, not his floor. Faulk WILL cut into his numbers, and Martz WILL abandon the running game several times. When you draft your RB2 in the 2nd or 3rd round, you need to be drafting someone who is almost guaranteed to put up RB2 numbers and has a reasonable chance of putting up RB1 numbers. Jackson, OTOH, has almost zero chance of RB1 numbers, and about a 50-50 chance of putting up RB2 or RB3 numbers. If you are drafting him as your RB3 in the 5th round, then that's fine. But he's not being drafted there. You have to draft him as your RB2 in the late 2nd round or early 3rd round if you want him, and he provides no value and no upside there.So is he a viable RB2? Yes, but I'm not wasting an early 3rd round pick on someone who might perform at RB2 level, might perform at RB3 level, and won't perform at RB1 level.
jurb26
Footballguy
The 2 things I find overly optimistic in your post are:1. You are basing the Rams O of now and it's relative nubmers with one taken form one of the best O's to have ever been fielded. The Rams O of 99-01 was revolutionary in ways. They also had one of if not the best Oline in the game at the time. Assuming that this kind of production simply carries over to the 05 Rams and thus Jackson seems a bit of a stretch to me.
2. You are also assuming that Jackson is too close to the same caliber RB that Faulk was in his prime. You earlier state in your post that Faulk is a one of a kind great and one of the best ever... what kind of odds would you place on Jackosn (knowing what we know now) matching that?
I think your numbers are possible for Jackson, but not likley. I see them as the high end of what he could do. Personally I think Faulk will be used more than you anticipate (which is why I recently traded to aquire him) and not only that, but he will not be as effective as I think you are projecting. Sure, Jackson maintained 5.0 a carry last year, but not as a lead or featured back. How many times through history have we seen that though? More often than not, that same back proves less effective once featured and I would expect this to be the case for Jackson, as I would any RB. 5.0 seems to be an elite mark and basically, I'm not ready to put Jackson in that eltie catagory just yet.
Still I very nice post thoguh.
In response to some of these points, I would add that most FF leagues award points for receiving yards, and quite a few offer some reward for RB receptions. The STL RBs get a good share of the passing game aimed at them, so if you are looking just at rushes, I agree that they will disappoint. But if you look at touches, it becomes a very different story.As far as work by other RBs, I would argue that Faulk & Jackson are the 2 RBs in STL that will get the lion's share of the work. So instead of looking at how many rushes the top RB gets, let's look at the rushes that the top 2 RBs get in STL under Martz:
Year / Total rushes / % rushes by top 2 RBs
'00 / 333 / 92.5%
'01 / 354 / 95.4%
'02 / 298 / 93.0%
'03 / 366 / 80.3%
'04 / 329 / 93.5%
So with the exception of '03, the top 2 RBs in STL get a gigantic share of the RB rushes. The exception in '02 was due primarily to Faulk's injury & the additional carries being made available to L Gordon & A Harris. You won't see that kind of split between the #2A/#2B RB this year because Faulk and Jackson are the clear top 2 RBs in STL - unless either Faulk or Jackson goes down early to injury - meaning that it is very reasonable to expect the top 2 RBs to carve out 94% to 95% of the total carries, if not more since they are so far ahead of the rest of the pack.
So if you project 350 RB carries, 335 carries to Jackson/Faulk seems about right. That still fits your criteria for a very low number of team carries - possibly the lowest in the NFL this year.
I agree with point 1) ; however, I think that the decline in the STL O can be attributed in part to Faulk's eroding skills - which I documented in my initial post in this thread. Jackson outperformed Faulk by a ton last year in ypc, ypr, & goal line efficiency.I disagree with point 2. I am conceding Faulk in his prime a 0.4/0.5 ypc higher than I am projecting for Jackson, and giving Faulk in his prime a full 1.5/2.0 ypr over Jackson's numbers.Jackson has shown that he can put up those kinds of averages that I am projecting - it isn't pure conjecture. You also have to remember that the STL passing game, especially now that they have Curtis as a #3 WR, ought to open some huge running seams as the WRs spread out the opponent's D - and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see teams play a lot of nickel & dime packages against the STL passing game, making those seams even bigger while being manned by smaller players (DBs) who are generally poorer tacklers.BTW - enjoying the good debate, guys. Thanks.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
The average # of attempts per season for the past 5 years was 336 touches. (I did mention that the Rams ranked 30th in RB touches over the past 3 years if you missed it). The average % of their Top 2 RBs was 90%, meaning their Top 2 RB have averaged 302 combined touches.Using that number arbitrarily (I suppose it's as good as any), Faulk and Jackson would have to split 302 touches. Using what you posted:
That would mean the break down would be Jackson 288 touches to Faulk's 14 to get to 302. That seems like an unlikely breakdown, but that's what would have to happen from a touch breakdown if the Rams have "average" RB usage (for them at least) for their Top 2 RBs given your projections.Again, I'm not shooting down what you are projecting based on incompetence of Jackson. All I saying is the team will have to migrate away from the game plan they have had in recent years (and most of the Martz era) for that to happen.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I like Jackson as a talent and think that in the right situation, he would be fantastic. Unfortunately I don't thinks he's in that situation currently.
Here is the text from my Player Spotlight writeup:
Marshall Faulk had a legendary run as the focal point of the Rams offensive attack. Through the 1999-2001 seasons, Faulk averaged:
255 carries
1,374 yards rushing
5.4 YPC
84 receptions
881 yards receiving
19.7 TDs (rushing and receiving)
344 fantasy pointsAs impressive as those numbers were, it's going on four years since Faulk produced at a consistently elite level; which is where Steven Jackson comes into play.
Jackson, considered by some the best RB prospect in the 2004 NFL draft, saw his near-term fantasy potential dashed when the Rams selected him. Jackson, regardless of his talent, wasn't going to replace Faulk, nor were the Rams going to run the ball enough to effectively utilize two RBs to their fantasy potential.
In the context of his limited opportunity, Jackson acquitted himself well and showed just enough for his supporters to project huge numbers for him in a full time role.
134 carries
673 yards rushing
5.0 YPC
19 receptions
189 yards receiving
9.9 YPR
4 TDsOn an apples to apples basis, Jackson outperformed Faulk in several key metrics:
...Averaged a full yard better per carry (5.0 versus 4.0 for Faulk)
...Averaged 9.9 yards per reception versus Faulk's 6.2
...Scored the same # of TDs (four) in 3/5ths the touches (153 to 245)
So it would seem that the only thing keeping Jackson from a major fantasy breakout was the guarantee of an increased workload. Luckily, he got that when HC Mike Martz officially declared Jackson the full-time starter for the 2005 season.
So with a good pedigree, the starting job, and an offense that always puts up big numbers; what's not to like about Jackson's fantasy prospects?
PLENTY.
1) Faulk isn't really out of the picture -- Sure, Marshall Faulk has graciously stepped aside to let Jackson be the lead ball-carrier. But that doesn't mean Faulk won't play, particularly as a receiver. Just a few weeks ago, Mike Martz said, "I see a teamwork deal between the two of them,...They’ll be in at the same time, work as a team. Marshall’s role will be more of a receiver. We’ll have them in the same backfield. We can split either of them out — both can catch the ball. Marshall’s role will be as he defines it, basically. If he wants to play 80 percent, basically that is what he’ll do." What does that mean? It means, at worst, Jackson isn't in line to see the heavy receiving workload that Faulk used to (80+ catches), and at best, Jackson is probably in line to amass 35-40 receptions and commensurate yardage.
2) There aren't enough carries to go around -- Over the last three seasons, the entire Rams RB Corps averaged 339 carries a season, 31st in the league. Even if one assume the Rams increase that number a bit this year (let's say, to 360), that still leaves precious few carries to split between Jackson and Faulk. Say, for argument's sake, Faulk only gets 80 carries this season, that would leave Jackson will somewhere between 260-280. That's enough of a workload to be a solid fantasy runner, but it all but assures he can't surprise anyone and finish among the elite at the position.
3) The Rams throw the ball in the red zone -- Over the last three seasons, the Rams have run the ball 49.3% of the time in the red zone; the 4th lowest percentage in the league over that span. Only Green Bay, Cleveland and Detroit have a propensity to throw the ball more down in the R.Z. With the cadre of Rams receivers, and Faulk being used out of the slot and backfield, I'm just not sure Jackson is going to get the opportunities necessary to put up big TD numbers.
Combine the aforementioned factors with uncertainty at RT (can rookie Alex Barron deliver?) and I'm not sure Jackson is worth the price in 2005 redrafts. According to recent Antsports ADP data, Jackson is the 17th RB drafted toward the end of the 2nd round in 12-team leagues. That's about right, but likely captures much, if not all of his upside.
Positives
Blue chip prospect with size, speed and vision necessary to flourish in any NFL system
Officially declared the starter this season, coming off a rookie year where he averaged 5.0 yards per rush and 9.9 yards per reception
Although the Rams have never run the ball a ton, we've seen what kind of numbers a true talent can produce in that system (i.e., Marshall Faulk)Negatives
Marshall Faulk remains part of the picture and will, at minimum, play a role as a receiver out of the backfield and in the slot
The entire Rams offense has taken a step back from their glory days, with QB and the offensive line being less productive and consistent
Jackson's gaudy numbers came from a small statistical sample and may not be indicative of his baseline level of performance; not to mention his TD production (4 TDs in 153 touches) was not particularly awe-inspiringFinal Thoughts
You might not realize it from this write up but I'm a fan of Steven Jackson. I was bitterly disappointed when the Rams selected him last year because I felt he was one of a handful of rookies that could've stepped into a starting role and been a fantasy force. But such is life and instead he sat behind one of the all-time greats at the position. There's no question that his fantasy prospects are considerably more appealing this year: he's been named the starter, Alex Barron appears to be an upgrade at RT, Orlando Pace will be in camp, and the Rams are always productive offensively with Martz at the helm. That said, his UPSIDE is limited, more so than other young, stud RBs that you might consider in the early rounds. He would have to make a marked improvement in his TD-per-touch production AND hope for a much smaller role from Faulk than I'm expecting in order to emerge as a top 10-12 fantasy RB. I think if he's healthy, Jackson should deliver solid RB15-20 type production, which is worth having on your roster but only at the right price.
Here is the text from my Player Spotlight writeup:
Marshall Faulk had a legendary run as the focal point of the Rams offensive attack. Through the 1999-2001 seasons, Faulk averaged:
255 carries
1,374 yards rushing
5.4 YPC
84 receptions
881 yards receiving
19.7 TDs (rushing and receiving)
344 fantasy pointsAs impressive as those numbers were, it's going on four years since Faulk produced at a consistently elite level; which is where Steven Jackson comes into play.
Jackson, considered by some the best RB prospect in the 2004 NFL draft, saw his near-term fantasy potential dashed when the Rams selected him. Jackson, regardless of his talent, wasn't going to replace Faulk, nor were the Rams going to run the ball enough to effectively utilize two RBs to their fantasy potential.
In the context of his limited opportunity, Jackson acquitted himself well and showed just enough for his supporters to project huge numbers for him in a full time role.
134 carries
673 yards rushing
5.0 YPC
19 receptions
189 yards receiving
9.9 YPR
4 TDsOn an apples to apples basis, Jackson outperformed Faulk in several key metrics:
...Averaged a full yard better per carry (5.0 versus 4.0 for Faulk)
...Averaged 9.9 yards per reception versus Faulk's 6.2
...Scored the same # of TDs (four) in 3/5ths the touches (153 to 245)
So it would seem that the only thing keeping Jackson from a major fantasy breakout was the guarantee of an increased workload. Luckily, he got that when HC Mike Martz officially declared Jackson the full-time starter for the 2005 season.
So with a good pedigree, the starting job, and an offense that always puts up big numbers; what's not to like about Jackson's fantasy prospects?
PLENTY.
1) Faulk isn't really out of the picture -- Sure, Marshall Faulk has graciously stepped aside to let Jackson be the lead ball-carrier. But that doesn't mean Faulk won't play, particularly as a receiver. Just a few weeks ago, Mike Martz said, "I see a teamwork deal between the two of them,...They’ll be in at the same time, work as a team. Marshall’s role will be more of a receiver. We’ll have them in the same backfield. We can split either of them out — both can catch the ball. Marshall’s role will be as he defines it, basically. If he wants to play 80 percent, basically that is what he’ll do." What does that mean? It means, at worst, Jackson isn't in line to see the heavy receiving workload that Faulk used to (80+ catches), and at best, Jackson is probably in line to amass 35-40 receptions and commensurate yardage.
2) There aren't enough carries to go around -- Over the last three seasons, the entire Rams RB Corps averaged 339 carries a season, 31st in the league. Even if one assume the Rams increase that number a bit this year (let's say, to 360), that still leaves precious few carries to split between Jackson and Faulk. Say, for argument's sake, Faulk only gets 80 carries this season, that would leave Jackson will somewhere between 260-280. That's enough of a workload to be a solid fantasy runner, but it all but assures he can't surprise anyone and finish among the elite at the position.
3) The Rams throw the ball in the red zone -- Over the last three seasons, the Rams have run the ball 49.3% of the time in the red zone; the 4th lowest percentage in the league over that span. Only Green Bay, Cleveland and Detroit have a propensity to throw the ball more down in the R.Z. With the cadre of Rams receivers, and Faulk being used out of the slot and backfield, I'm just not sure Jackson is going to get the opportunities necessary to put up big TD numbers.
Combine the aforementioned factors with uncertainty at RT (can rookie Alex Barron deliver?) and I'm not sure Jackson is worth the price in 2005 redrafts. According to recent Antsports ADP data, Jackson is the 17th RB drafted toward the end of the 2nd round in 12-team leagues. That's about right, but likely captures much, if not all of his upside.
Positives
Blue chip prospect with size, speed and vision necessary to flourish in any NFL system
Officially declared the starter this season, coming off a rookie year where he averaged 5.0 yards per rush and 9.9 yards per reception
Although the Rams have never run the ball a ton, we've seen what kind of numbers a true talent can produce in that system (i.e., Marshall Faulk)Negatives
Marshall Faulk remains part of the picture and will, at minimum, play a role as a receiver out of the backfield and in the slot
The entire Rams offense has taken a step back from their glory days, with QB and the offensive line being less productive and consistent
Jackson's gaudy numbers came from a small statistical sample and may not be indicative of his baseline level of performance; not to mention his TD production (4 TDs in 153 touches) was not particularly awe-inspiringFinal Thoughts
You might not realize it from this write up but I'm a fan of Steven Jackson. I was bitterly disappointed when the Rams selected him last year because I felt he was one of a handful of rookies that could've stepped into a starting role and been a fantasy force. But such is life and instead he sat behind one of the all-time greats at the position. There's no question that his fantasy prospects are considerably more appealing this year: he's been named the starter, Alex Barron appears to be an upgrade at RT, Orlando Pace will be in camp, and the Rams are always productive offensively with Martz at the helm. That said, his UPSIDE is limited, more so than other young, stud RBs that you might consider in the early rounds. He would have to make a marked improvement in his TD-per-touch production AND hope for a much smaller role from Faulk than I'm expecting in order to emerge as a top 10-12 fantasy RB. I think if he's healthy, Jackson should deliver solid RB15-20 type production, which is worth having on your roster but only at the right price.
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Otis
Footballguy
My biggest problem is not his talent or the system -- it's his knees. Any RB who, at his age, is already having regular knee problems, off-season arthroscopic surgery (however "minor" it may be), and misses games for knee-related reasons, is a guy I approach with serious reservations.
I respectfully dispute your numbers. I didn't nor have I ever, missed your low RB rush ranking comments, and have mentioned them several times myself when I post my thoughts on this situation.Top 2 RBs in STL under Martz:'00 307 rush 91 rec / 398 touches'01 338 rush 100 rec / 438 touches'02 277 rush 110 rec / 387 touches'03 294 rush 60 rec / 354 touches'04 329 rush 69 rec / 398 touchesThat's an average of 395 touches a season for the top 2 RBs - and '02 is skewed low because of the split in work between Gordon/Harris when Faulk was hurt - Harris got a lot more work in '02 as the #3 RB than any other #3 RB under Martz has gotten. Your 302 touches is WAY too low, IMO, and is where your argument becomes faulty.Here are links to each season’s stats:20042003200220012000Thanks as always to Doug Drinen.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Let's do the math again. I got confused by what you posted earlier. (You mentioned touches but cited carries.So the numbers I mentioned were for rushing attempts only. Running the new numbers . . .
302 total rushing attempts . . . 238 for Jackson . . . leaves 64 for Faulk.
That would mean Faulk would average 4 carries per game.
As for receptions . . .
Average of 86 receptions . . . 50 receptions projected for Jackson = 36 left over for Faulk.
So the revised totals using your projections would be:
Jackson: 238 rushes and 50 receptions
Faulk: 64 rushes and 36 receptions
(if the Rams have an "average" season for their Top 2 RB).
That would be a 74%/26% breakdown.
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That's about what I'm projecting, though I'm using more RB touches - 440 for Jackson/Faulk combined rather than the 390 you have here - because I think with Jackson the O will be more prolific than it has been the past 3 years. I feel that with a healthy Jackson carrying the load rather than an aging Faulk that the O will be closer to the '00/'01 version rather than the '02/'03/'04 version. I also feel that with the improved O that STL will win more games than they lose - and some of those Ws by relatively large margins, which means more rushing in the 2nd half of games.If STL is a .500 team or worse this year, I'd agree that the numbers will probably be closer to the 390 total touches that you are putting forth here rather than the 440 touches that I'm using.
Jim Otto
Footballguy
Yes Colin, you are correct in that I am not in the Rams organization nor do I have a red batphone hotline to Martz office.
However, I seriously doubt that the plan is to run the smaller older back inside the 20's, pounding the ball and getting him beat up. I envision Faulk on the field more between the 20's as a receiving threat and occasionally getting the ball on the ground as well. 2 back sets should not be uncommon in those situations. Up around the goalline, Jackson is the more obvious choice to me. He is younger and bigger, those things would seem to suit that role better. Do you disagree?Faulk - Born: 2-26-73, Height: 5' 10", Weight: 211 lbs.
Jackson - Born 7-22-83, Height: 6' 2", Weight: 233 lbs.
Again, Jackson is the younger, bigger back and if he is not used around the goal significantly more than Faulk at the end of the year (barring injury) I will be very surprised.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
1. I never said anything sarcastic to you. Pick a better place to use your smilies.2. If you have seen anything - interview, article, practice, etc. - indicating that Jackson is the goalline back, please post it as I'm interested.Yes Colin, you are correct in that I am not in the Rams organization nor do I have a red batphone hotline to Martz office.
Faulk - Born: 2-26-73, Height: 5' 10", Weight: 211 lbs.
Jackson - Born 7-22-83, Height: 6' 2", Weight: 233 lbs.
Again, Jackson is the younger, bigger back and if he is not used around the goal significantly more than Faulk at the end of the year (barring injury) I will be very surprised.
3. I think its likely that Jackson will get more goalline touches then Faulk. I DON'T think its likely that Faulk will be phased out of the goalline entirely, which is a concern.
4. Being Bigger means little. Many of the finest goalline backs in the NFL are smallish.
King Kickoff
Footballguy
The reason the original question was asked is that in my league Steven Jackson WILL be a 5th round pick for my team(keeper league) My question is can I get away with him as a 2nd back or do i need to take two more backs ahead of him? By the way great info from everyone....thanxsKing Kickoff
Vibe Raiders
Footballguy
Not one of the top 10 Running backs last year averaged 5 YPC...Seems unresonable to project that...and your assuming that he is going to be as good as Faulk in his prime to do it anyway.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Ordinarily, yes. But Faulk in his heyday was an extremely effective receiver/runner inside the 20. As such, what if the "reduced role" that everyone (me included) is so sure of is not fewer touches throughout the game, but rather Faulk in the goalline packages doing what he's best at and Jackson carrying the load betwix the 20s.I am just suggesting that as a real possibility that no one seems to be interested in acknowledging.
Colin
RBM
Footballguy
I really think this wouldve been mentioned by one of the coaches or players at this point. But its still early, so give it a couple of weeks and we might hear something like this, otherwise it should be safe to assume Jackson will get the chance to establish himself as the goalline back.
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I thought I had explained why he could achieve something close to 5.0 ypc. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough or it got hidden in the middle of one of my posts.Faulk was a good RB with IND, but had ypcs in the vicinity of 3.7-4.1 during his 5 years there. Then Faulk goes to STL, and all of a sudden his pedestrian to solid ypc jumps dramatically to an astounding 5.5 ypc his first year, 5.4 ypc his second year, and 5.3 ypc in his third year in STL. His receptions also jumped up to 80+ catches a year after 4 years in the 50s and his last year with IND in the 80s.Not one of the top 10 Running backs last year averaged 5 YPC...Seems unresonable to project that...and your assuming that he is going to be as good as Faulk in his prime to do it anyway.
It's the STL O philosophy that creates this opportunity. STL throws all over the field, likes to throw deep often, or at least run a lot of credible very deep patterns, and they have some awesome WRs - and this forces the D to play differently. Ds suddenly have to insert another CB, or they risk single coverage on the outside or a LB/WR mismatch. Against STL it becomes pick your poison for opposing Ds. Die a quick death with a long pass going for a TD, or choose a slow death by taking away the deep stuff and letting the RB run underneath.
Most teams - and very reasonably so - choose the slow death. They insert an extra DB or 2 into the lineup, play their Ss deeper, and hope the underneath stuff doesn't result in a TD before STL makes a mistake or runs out of downs. Because the D backfield is playing deeper and there are extra DBs in the game, this allows the O-line to outnumber the D at the point of attack and also creates open field situations where DBs are trying to tackle the RB rather than LBs at the second level.
Because of this, Faulk's ypc jumped by a phenominal amount. It's also part of the reason why Jackson's ypc was so hefty last season. There's more running room, and the tacklers aren't as good at tackling as they are at covering, plus there's more room for the RB to operate underneath running patterns out of the backfield.
I see no reason why STL is going to change their O philosophy, so the mismatches by the running game are going to continue - especially with Curtis emerging as a very legit #3 WR threat. Jackson at 5.0 ypc is well below Faulk's 5.3-5.5 ypc in Faulk's heyday. And Jackson's 5.0 ypc is very different than a 5.0 ypc with any other team in the league.
But make no mistake - as long as STL is committed to throwing the ball the way that they do, Jackson maintaing a 5.0 ypc throughout an entire season as the #1 RB in STL is very realistic. So while he may have fewer opportunities to run the ball because of Martz's love of the passing game, when he does get to run, those runs are at an optimum advantage by the rushing offense.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I have GOT to hear a defense of this position.I am not doubting it, but I really need to understand WHY, a 6'3" 235 pound, prototyically shaped running back is more injury prone.One thing Jakson does NOT have - which is the prime "injury prone" tag for RBs - is an upright style. He gets low and he covers up the football while running through the hole, so I am curious why you believe his size = more injuries.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Never screw with the stat-meister.
