The guys who did it in worse situations, Jones and Green.
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Reasons to avoid Bush and Jones-Drew? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chase Stuart
- Start date
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Seven of the RBs saw their FP go up. However, three of them -- Karim Abdul Jabbar, Ronnie Brown and Antowain Smith -- all regressed in their second seasons. Jabbar went from a 3.64 YPC average to a pitiful 3.15 YPC, so he clearly regressed -- he just scored five more TDs. Ronnie Brown was just last year, so you should remember that. He actually ranked lower (25th instead of 23rd) as a sophomore, despite the absence of Ricky Williams. He failed to meet expectations, and was drafted very highly last year. He also saw his YPC drop. Antowain Smith was in a RBBC as a rookie, and got 100 more carries as a sophomore. But his YPC, TD rate and receiving numbers all dropped sharply as a sophomore. Portis held relatively flat, although I think he still fell short of expectations. Eddie George saw a decline in his YPC, TDs and receiving numbers as a sophomore, but nothing dramatic. Nine others had big drops, Mike Anderson went into a RBBC but still had a big drop, and then you have the Olandis Gary, Jamal Lewis, Robert Edwards, Dom Rhodes group.Suffice it to say, much more often than not, rookie RBs that do well underwhelm the next year.
Tau837
Footballguy
I generally agree with this, but you still have to look at things on a case by case basis.IIRC Bush dealt with an ankle injury during the first half (or was it two different ankle injuries?). Given that we don't project him to play with an ankle injury, it may be more valid to look at his second half. In addition, I do think Bush's skill set and usage is different than most RBs, and it may have taken the offense and coaching staff some time to figure out how to best utilize him. So it may be valid to weigh Bush's second half more heavily than his first half.As for MJD, aside from likely regression in his amazing per touch productivity, MJD really exploded last season when Taylor was hurt. Previous post on this:
So before Taylor got hurt last year, MJD averaged 11.3 fppg. After Taylor got hurt, he averaged 23 ppg. So unless you project Taylor to get hurt again, there is an obvious reason for MJD to regress. It definitely looks like there is reason not to put too much emphasis on MJD's second half IMO. I mean, you can put general value on the fact that he showed he can carry the load, but you can't apply the numbers to project this year IMO.
Tau837
Footballguy
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Off the top of my head, since then, Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton continued that trend, but Reggie Brown (was he the top rookie WR in '05?) might have reversed it.
I was speaking about their 2nd year situations, not the first. Jones and Green, as the study by Chase shows, actually did not do it in the worse situations that I was speaking of.Jacksonville and New Orleans are both positioned for successful rushing seasons. I don't know that the same could have been said for Detroit and Cleveland in Jones' and Green's second year.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
With a large enough sample, strength of schedule (a random variable) would even out. Just like if you flip a coin 50 times you're more likely to get close to 50% heads than if you flip it two times, you're more likely to get an even distribution of SOS with a larger sample.
Joe T
Footballguy
I think you are overstating much more often than not.It looks about 50/50 on paper at face value to me. All of these guys had GREAT rookie seasons. Guess what, great seasons are hard to duplicate whether you are a rookie or not. Of course some are going to go down.Your analysis shows that some go up 7, a few stay the same 3 or 4, and about 10 actually go down. I don't think you need an article to show me that about half of all running backs go down after having great seasons.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Very
John Mamula
Moderator
At 31, I think it is a decent chance that Taylor goes down for some period of time.Very
I don't think you can conclude from a statistical split that a light went on. (In the context of an NFL season.) But sometimes I think you can see a proverbial light go on when a player starts doing something different. With Bush last year, I think in the first half of the season he stayed lateral too much, while in the second half of the season he did a much better job of sticking his nose upfield to take the three yards that were there instead of passing on them in the (usually futile) hope that a bigger hole would eventually open.
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Perhaps we have a different definition for "random," then. The schedule itself may be initially generated randomly, but the strength or weakness of that schedule is definitely not.And, I don't think your coin flip analogy is appropriate here. Flipping a coin is chance. If you have to play the Ravens twice a year, it's not chance that they are going to be difficult to run on.These players were all given schedules randomly, but you can look to find trends within those random schedules so that we can actually compare them with New Orleans' and Jacksonville's schedules.
EBF
Footballguy
When you look at all of the hype for Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, Maurice Drew, and Reggie Bush, you almost have to think one or two of those guys will be major disappointments in the long run. Look at all the recent rookie RBs who have been mega-hyped after their first season:
Ronnie Brown
Carnell Williams
Kevin Jones
Julius Jones
Domanick Davis
Willis McGahee (I'll count his second year as his rookie year due to the injury issue)
William Green
Clinton Portis
LaDainian Tomlinson
Michael Bennett
Anthony Thomas
Edgerrin James
Ricky Williams
How many of these guys lived up to their billing?
Domanick Davis had a couple good years. Ricky Williams had multiple top 10 seasons. LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, and Clinton Portis became some of the most valuable RBs of their era.
Willis McGahee, Kevin Jones, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Julius Jones are all mired in mediocrity. They still carry significant FF value, but none of them are considered players you can build a winning FF team around.
Anthony Thomas and William Green quickly became irrelevant. Michael Bennett looks to be on the same path.
So out of 13 backs who were highly-touted after their rookie season, it looks like only about half really lived up to their hype. I'd venture to guess that a study of broader scope would show similar results. And yet every season we see that any highly-drafted RB who has a remotely promising rookie year is touted as a top 10-20 dynasty pick.
I've talked about this before on these boards, but I think I can explain why this happens. We'll call it the Ron Dayne Paradox. Here are Ron Dayne's final four games from the 2006 season:
18 carries for 95 yards (5.3 YPC) and 0 TDs
21 carries for 87 yards (4.7 YPC) and 2 TDs
18 carries for 94 yards (5.2 YPC) and 1 TD
32 carries for 153 yards (4.8 YPC) and 2 TDs
Over his final four games, Dayne averaged 107 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) and 1.25 rushing TDs per game. If you extrapolate that to a full season, Ron Dayne was on pace for 1700 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs. Clearly Ron Dayne is a beast with the talent to be a perennial Pro Bowler. Clearly he's going to become a stud once Ahman Green is out of the picture.
Or maybe not.
We know Ron Dayne. We know he sucks. Several seasons of mediocrity have proven as much. So when Ron Dayne goes on a hot streak, we don't think much of it. We don't assume that this hot streak is indicative of things to come. We see it for what it is: a mediocre player playing above his head.
But when a rookie goes on a hot streak, people never seem to consider the possibility that he's just a mediocre player on a hot streak. They always assume that a handful of good games are proof that the rookie is destined for stardom. I think this happens because young players simply haven't been around long enough to teach us much about them. The truth is that we don't really know if Addai and Maroney are great players. They haven't played enough games to really show us whether they're for real or not. So we're left to guess based on a few measly shreds of data.
I think the lesson here is that it's best to be skeptical of players who are considered top 10-20 dynasty picks on the basis of 3-4 good games. Laurence Maroney had one 100+ yard game last season. Now he's a top 10 pick in every dynasty league. There are legitimate reasons to believe he can become a very productive player, but the fact remains that his production doesn't in any way justify his draft status. Is this really the guy you want to risk your franchise on?
Ultimately, you have to decide for yourself when it comes to young players. Some will become stars. Some will wash out. The statistics are only so useful in determining which players will do which.
As for last year's group, I do think there's reason to believe that they could be an exception to historical trends. Bush was ranked as the top player on almost every team's draft board. He's probably the first RB to accomplish that feat in a decade. There's reason to believe he's an elite talent. MJD had a great rookie year. Maroney and Addai have the advantage of playing on awesome teams (something that surely would've helped William Green and Ronnie Brown).
Even so, the optimism on these guys is probably a bit premature. I'll be surprised if they all justify the hype.
Ronnie Brown
Carnell Williams
Kevin Jones
Julius Jones
Domanick Davis
Willis McGahee (I'll count his second year as his rookie year due to the injury issue)
William Green
Clinton Portis
LaDainian Tomlinson
Michael Bennett
Anthony Thomas
Edgerrin James
Ricky Williams
How many of these guys lived up to their billing?
Domanick Davis had a couple good years. Ricky Williams had multiple top 10 seasons. LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, and Clinton Portis became some of the most valuable RBs of their era.
Willis McGahee, Kevin Jones, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Julius Jones are all mired in mediocrity. They still carry significant FF value, but none of them are considered players you can build a winning FF team around.
Anthony Thomas and William Green quickly became irrelevant. Michael Bennett looks to be on the same path.
So out of 13 backs who were highly-touted after their rookie season, it looks like only about half really lived up to their hype. I'd venture to guess that a study of broader scope would show similar results. And yet every season we see that any highly-drafted RB who has a remotely promising rookie year is touted as a top 10-20 dynasty pick.
I've talked about this before on these boards, but I think I can explain why this happens. We'll call it the Ron Dayne Paradox. Here are Ron Dayne's final four games from the 2006 season:
18 carries for 95 yards (5.3 YPC) and 0 TDs
21 carries for 87 yards (4.7 YPC) and 2 TDs
18 carries for 94 yards (5.2 YPC) and 1 TD
32 carries for 153 yards (4.8 YPC) and 2 TDs
Over his final four games, Dayne averaged 107 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) and 1.25 rushing TDs per game. If you extrapolate that to a full season, Ron Dayne was on pace for 1700 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs. Clearly Ron Dayne is a beast with the talent to be a perennial Pro Bowler. Clearly he's going to become a stud once Ahman Green is out of the picture.
Or maybe not.
We know Ron Dayne. We know he sucks. Several seasons of mediocrity have proven as much. So when Ron Dayne goes on a hot streak, we don't think much of it. We don't assume that this hot streak is indicative of things to come. We see it for what it is: a mediocre player playing above his head.
But when a rookie goes on a hot streak, people never seem to consider the possibility that he's just a mediocre player on a hot streak. They always assume that a handful of good games are proof that the rookie is destined for stardom. I think this happens because young players simply haven't been around long enough to teach us much about them. The truth is that we don't really know if Addai and Maroney are great players. They haven't played enough games to really show us whether they're for real or not. So we're left to guess based on a few measly shreds of data.
I think the lesson here is that it's best to be skeptical of players who are considered top 10-20 dynasty picks on the basis of 3-4 good games. Laurence Maroney had one 100+ yard game last season. Now he's a top 10 pick in every dynasty league. There are legitimate reasons to believe he can become a very productive player, but the fact remains that his production doesn't in any way justify his draft status. Is this really the guy you want to risk your franchise on?
Ultimately, you have to decide for yourself when it comes to young players. Some will become stars. Some will wash out. The statistics are only so useful in determining which players will do which.
As for last year's group, I do think there's reason to believe that they could be an exception to historical trends. Bush was ranked as the top player on almost every team's draft board. He's probably the first RB to accomplish that feat in a decade. There's reason to believe he's an elite talent. MJD had a great rookie year. Maroney and Addai have the advantage of playing on awesome teams (something that surely would've helped William Green and Ronnie Brown).
Even so, the optimism on these guys is probably a bit premature. I'll be surprised if they all justify the hype.
Tau837
Footballguy
I didn't say they were better in Dillon's second season. I said they put more emphasis on passing.In 1997, Cincy attempted 504 passes (21st) and 452 rushes (13th). In 1998, Cincy attempted 521 passes (15th) and 405 rushes (24th). Not a huge difference, perhaps... but still a difference I do not expect to occur for Bush or MJD.As for the Saints, I agree that they will not likely repeat their pass attempts from last season. However, there are two things about that:1. It doesn't necessarily mean Bush's targets are reduced if the team's overall targets are reduced.2. If they pass less in order to run more, Bush will likely get more rushing attempts.
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
Chase, please post your league finishes last year. TIA.
Joe T
Footballguy
WCOFF - last placeothers - probably just as badI reccomend less time "analyzing" and more time thinking.*Note - the word analyzing is used very loosely above.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Pretty sure your sample isn't that big.
LawFitz
Footballguy
SOS is a random variable and therefore it can be excluded when increasing the sample size. Huh?
That makes absolutely no sense to me. Easy to quantify? No. Extremely meaningful? Absolutely. Just as a number of other variables that would help to give greater meaning to any sort of regression based analysis. Too many material variables in fact exist that are nearly impossible to quantify. This sport and the stats involved are heavily determined by the overall team concept.
I've said before that this is analysis paralysis that is far too complex, but in a way the converse may apply. This analysis may be far too simplified to have meaning in that it is looking back at RBs and creating a very faulty statistical trendline with a ton of statistical error. I notice you didn't include an R squared stat in your regression equation that used draft position and 1st year rushing yards. I would bet that the r-squared is pretty low.
This analysis is not complex enough to be meaningful b/c too many relevant variables are excluded due to lack of quantifiable data points. Coaching change, injury, attrition, SOS, playing time, and a number of other relevant issues should be factored into the regression equation to increase the r-squared.
But they cannot unfortunately, so the best bet is to dump and go back to the basics. Talent + opportunity + motivation (and I'll add) + durability. I guess my point is that you should keep it simple unless you can get to a point of complexity that actually becomes statistically meaningful. And IMO, that's nearly impossible given all the material and hard to quantify variables involved.
That makes absolutely no sense to me. Easy to quantify? No. Extremely meaningful? Absolutely. Just as a number of other variables that would help to give greater meaning to any sort of regression based analysis. Too many material variables in fact exist that are nearly impossible to quantify. This sport and the stats involved are heavily determined by the overall team concept.
I've said before that this is analysis paralysis that is far too complex, but in a way the converse may apply. This analysis may be far too simplified to have meaning in that it is looking back at RBs and creating a very faulty statistical trendline with a ton of statistical error. I notice you didn't include an R squared stat in your regression equation that used draft position and 1st year rushing yards. I would bet that the r-squared is pretty low.
This analysis is not complex enough to be meaningful b/c too many relevant variables are excluded due to lack of quantifiable data points. Coaching change, injury, attrition, SOS, playing time, and a number of other relevant issues should be factored into the regression equation to increase the r-squared.
But they cannot unfortunately, so the best bet is to dump and go back to the basics. Talent + opportunity + motivation (and I'll add) + durability. I guess my point is that you should keep it simple unless you can get to a point of complexity that actually becomes statistically meaningful. And IMO, that's nearly impossible given all the material and hard to quantify variables involved.
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switz
Footballguy
Reality check. How many of those prior to their rookie seaon did you think were going to be stud RBs? If they outperformed your expectations in their rookie season, why did you let that change your mind?In retrospect, maybe we shouldn't have hyped Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Anthony Thomas, Michael Benentt and Dominick Davis because when they were drafted, most of us recognized they weren't going to be STUDs.That leaves William Green, Caddilac, and McGahee as the guys who never lived up to their draft hype.McGahee hasn't been terrible, just not great.So only Green and Caddy have been busts.Then look back and which group do you think each rookie back belongs in?Highly hyped at the draft backs typically go on to produce. Backs hyped due to first year numbers generally dont.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
MJD wasn't highly hyped prior to the draft. In fact, he wasn't talked about much at all and was going to be buried in the depth chart if not for the injury to Greg Jones. Many were saying his size wouldn't translate well. Now, whether or not that ended up being true, which it doesn't seem to be the case, MJD didn't carry even a fraction of the hype as Bush did.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Glad to finally see something like this. Look back to almost any thead about a rookie RB the last few years and you'll find me arguing the same point as this article right after someone spouts off the words "hasn't proven anything."
It's exceedingly comical to me that in almost every thread about a rookie RB someone casually spits out tose words while in the next couple sentences mentioning how they'll stick with the "proven" guys like <insert name of 2nd year RB here> when in reality recent history has shown us that those highly touted second year backs have had just as high (if not higher) a bust rate as the highly touted rookies. It's absurd really.
It's exceedingly comical to me that in almost every thread about a rookie RB someone casually spits out tose words while in the next couple sentences mentioning how they'll stick with the "proven" guys like <insert name of 2nd year RB here> when in reality recent history has shown us that those highly touted second year backs have had just as high (if not higher) a bust rate as the highly touted rookies. It's absurd really.
switz
Footballguy
If this is in response to my post (or even if not) I agree 100%. So draw your own conclusions. Of the actually draft hyped players that performed well their rookie season, only TWO really fell on their face. On the other hand, the players hyped based on exceeding expecations their rookie year, almost universally fell on their face afterward.
Jayrod
Footballguy
This is probably the most useful post in this thread.Reggie Bush was considered an elite talent last year and actually was a bit of a disappointment for all of the pre-season hype.MJD was the surprise stud. Chase's analysis may apply well to MJD, but not Reggie Bush.I asked earlier about how many of the RB's in the study were in a RBBC and Chase basically said only one of them. I'd also ask how many of these backs were used dominantly in a receiving role? I'd be willing to bet that the most would be one. Bush is too unique to try and apply such a broad analysis (and especially one with such a small sample size).MJD is in a unique situation as well, but I think his is less so than Bush's. He was a surprise last year and his production per touch was off the charts. I don't think anyone is extrapolating his last 8 games and expecting that production for 16 games this year either.In reality, MJD should regress......... and that is the expectation. If it wasn't, then he would be getting drafted in the first round and not the middle of the second. The only question is, How much does he regress?
EBF
Footballguy
Brown was the 2nd player chosen in 2005. KJ and Bennett were first round picks. A-Train and Julius were early second round picks. People weren't necessarily comparing these guys to Edge and Faulk, but it's safe to say plenty of people were optimistic about these players before they ever stepped on the field.
Very true, but bear in mind that lots of folks used top 5-6 picks on him. It's safe to say he was a bad pick that high.
Maurice Drew was a second round rookie pick in a lot of my leagues. While there must have been some people expecting stardom in his future, I think it's safe to say that he wasn't widely considered a dynamic RB talent who was going to take the NFL by storm.Addai and Maroney were considered average first round RBs who landed in great situations. Neither was unanimously considered a stud talent at this point last season (Maroney had some buzz, but no one was talking about him in the same sentence as Peterson and Bush). DeAngelo Williams had far hype around here than either Addai or Maroney. Only Bush really had the elite hype. So I think you can say Addai, Maroney, and Drew are ranked high more based on production than on a widespread belief that they were dynamic talents entering the league.
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switz
Footballguy
KJ and Brown had alot of questions about them, and even though they were drafted pretty highly, it wasn't assumed they were going to be STUDs. Bennett was widely acknowledged as a project RB, who had great speed and in a good situation could excel. But none of those guys were thought of at the level of Edge, Williams, Bush, Peterson.. those level of backs.
I agree... the only thing that buouys Addai and Maroney IMO is situation.
Oh, there's probably always a good explanation. There may not be a mathematical one, or a statistical one, but there probably always is.I know in William Green's case, his OL got scrambled by injuries, he tended to be more effective when getting a lot of carries consistently, then he got a 4 game suspension for substance abuse and basically was cut. I'm not sure what data analysis would project that sort of thing, but there was an explanation.
The one thing I was extremely impressed with about Butch Davis here in Cleveland was that he pledged over and over that running the football was a state of mind, and if you stuck with it, it would develop. He force-fed William Green that year when they went 9-7 and by the end Butch had turned a junk OL into a pretty good run-blocking unit. But then the OL suffered a horrible rash of injuries every year for the next several years, and Butch never had the stability to do it again. Plus with the threat of a 1-YEAR suspension hanging over William Green if he got busted again, what team would give him the carries Green needed to succeed?
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Good write up Chase.
I'll continue to gaffe at people that in rookie discussion threads spit out the "I'll take a proven player like <insert 2nd year guy here> over a guy who has never played a down in the NFL anyday" while they continually ignore that their "proven" 2nd year player is more likely to bust than the rookie is.
I'll continue to gaffe at people that in rookie discussion threads spit out the "I'll take a proven player like <insert 2nd year guy here> over a guy who has never played a down in the NFL anyday" while they continually ignore that their "proven" 2nd year player is more likely to bust than the rookie is.
Fantasy Fix Fred
Footballguy
I hate having a Starting RB on my FF team that splits carries. This year I have none of that nonsense. MJD, keep him. As for Bush he's the exception, this guy is a stud.
bb7278
Footballguy
MJD's e-mail to Reggie after last night simply read:Reggie,Nice game,
Mr. President.Signed,MJD
(HULK)
(Smash)
I wonder when this unsupported hype of Bush and haterade of MJD will offically end?
switz
Footballguy
I wonder when the unsupported hype of MJD and the haterade of Bush will officially end.I wonder when this unsupported hype of Bush and haterade of MJD will offically end?
switz
Footballguy
Because Drew's done what so far this season?MJD's e-mail to Reggie after last night simply read:Reggie,Nice game,
(HULK)
(Smash)
How is it unsupported? They're both in similar situations. The only difference is that MJD has performed (over 5 ypc) and Reggie hasn't (under 4 ypc). Everything else is hype.I wonder when the unsupported hype of MJD and the haterade of Bush will officially end.I wonder when this unsupported hype of Bush and haterade of MJD will offically end?
switz
Footballguy
Funny, you call Bush hype unsupported, but you think MJD hype is supported. My point is that there are substantial question marks regarding both of them.How is it unsupported? They're both in similar situations. The only difference is that MJD has performed (over 5 ypc) and Reggie hasn't (under 4 ypc). Everything else is hype.I wonder when the unsupported hype of MJD and the haterade of Bush will officially end.
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(HULK)
(Smash)
I don't disagree with the question marks... both are in share situations which definitely puts a lower ceiling on their potential.But, MJD has done nothing but do more with less. I don't what else can be said about it. I see a lot of potential in both, but MJD actually has 1 season of producing at a high level and Bush does not.They both deserved to be 2nd rounders in drafts this year, not first rounders. Bush became a first rounder solely because of hype.
John Mamula
Moderator
agree in non ppr. disagree in ppr.look at bush's games from last year. these games happened. it just happened on game 1 in prime time so everyone focuses on it. in mid october this will fell like a distant memory.
shakeybarn
Footballguy
These lists have so many exceptions, not "like" comparisons, and so forth riddled throughout. It's a good concept, but the sample pool is like comparing apples to oranges to bananas to cherries to strawberries and so on.
Good concept, but the sample pool just doesn't work well enough.
Good concept, but the sample pool just doesn't work well enough.
shakeybarn
Footballguy
And Maroney hardly gets a mention on being "overhyped" all preseason...Maroney is going in the first round in many/most drafts... putting up 940/7 as a rook entering the season injured. While Bush posted 1300/8 his rookie year, coming in healthy.The anti-USC anti-West Coast biasm or whatever it is to HATE Bush so much... and admit it... many of you do, for no good reason..rings true. Reminds me of the anti-Vick crap a couple years ago.He'll be hit or miss like he was last year. He'll have games where any one of the following will happen: low rush/low rcv, low rush/hi recv, hi rush/low recv, both....
BusterTBronco
Footballguy
Shoulda listedened to you. I have both Bush and MJD on my fantasy team.
Joe T
Footballguy
1huskerfan
Footballguy
Same here, my first two picks in my PPR first year dynasty draft. I am 2-0 somehow.
That is how I see it also. Play to your strength. Maybe the new OC is trying to show off his brilliance and overthinking things in J'ville. It is just too easy to hand the ball to Freddy T and MJD, right? Let's trick 'em and cut Leftwich and throw the ball with Garrard! They'll never see that comin'!!!
vamphyri
Footballguy
Same here. Bush and MJD in 12 team redraft. 2-0 myself as well, thought I'm not quite sure how. A few bargains like Romo in round 10 help.1huskerfan said:Same here, my first two picks in my PPR first year dynasty draft. I am 2-0 somehow.
