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Red Sox vs Angels **OFFICIAL THREAD** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wilked
- Start date
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Angels, 5, because they're better
Red Sox own the Angels.....
But this year I'm not sure they have what it takes.
SP matchups are going to be pretty huge.
Not sure how they are going to lineup, I'll assume Beckett- Lackey...after that, Dice-K - Santana? Lester - Saunders? First game is going to be huge. Sox win, Angels are pretty much in desperation mode, tough to play like that. Angels win, ton of pressure on game 2 starter for the Sox.
I'll say Sox in 4. I think Beckett's about the best big game pitcher there is in the game. Hoping he wins 1 & 4 and the Sox can scratch out another win in game 2 or 3.
But this year I'm not sure they have what it takes.
SP matchups are going to be pretty huge.
Not sure how they are going to lineup, I'll assume Beckett- Lackey...after that, Dice-K - Santana? Lester - Saunders? First game is going to be huge. Sox win, Angels are pretty much in desperation mode, tough to play like that. Angels win, ton of pressure on game 2 starter for the Sox.
I'll say Sox in 4. I think Beckett's about the best big game pitcher there is in the game. Hoping he wins 1 & 4 and the Sox can scratch out another win in game 2 or 3.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Yeah but if history dictated anything, the Red Sox would now be waiting for their first title in 90 years. I think the Angels are the more complete team by far, though I do agree with a previous poster that Game 1 determines the whole thing.Clifton said:
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
when do tickets go on sale?
the moops
Footballguy
The Sox score more runs per game, 5.22 vs 4.72, and give up less runs per game, 4.21 vs 4.25.The Sox have a team OPS of 806 compared to 742 for the Angels.They have identical team ERAs of 3.94.The Angels have stolen 7 more bases, but have hit 15 less HRs.The Angels may have a better bullpen, but even that is debatable. K-Rod mayhave 61 saves, but him and Papelbon have nearly identical stat lines. Except that K-Rod has walked an astonishing number of guys (34 in 66 innings) compared to Papelbon (7 in 67 innings). All while having the same number of strikeouts, 75.Sox in 4
ugh, I understand you're staff and a Yankee fan, so I will not hold that against you, but please let's keep this discussion within the realms of sanity. Let's keep fishing threads in the FFA under the topics started by LHUCKSTIA
-guru_007
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
No surprise but I am pretty confident in the Sox chances here.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
The Rays scare me more than the Angels
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Using weighted pythagorian expected outcomes, the Sox should have a 100-57 record and Anaheim should be 82-75. The Sox have 5 more wins than anyone else (over the Rays) and the only other team in the 90s are the Cubs with 91 wins.Of course that means absolutely nothing when they kick off Game One, but the concept that the Angels are "more complete by far" certainly seems debatable.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Halos have a better pen (K Rod = Pap, I'm talking about the rest of it) and Red Sox have a better top of the order (Tex balances out the middle though).
I don't see an advantage for either team in any other department, this one's going five and I'll give the advantage to the home team with a better bullpen. Should be a good series.
I don't see an advantage for either team in any other department, this one's going five and I'll give the advantage to the home team with a better bullpen. Should be a good series.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Alright I'll concede that saying "by far" was an overstatement. And I know I'm putting myself on an island here, but pythagorean outcomes aren't really my bag. Besides, aren't those based on the teams' seasons as a whole? Right now, the Sox aren't what they've been all year. Drew is probably done after a dynamite first half. Beckett is 3-5 with an ERA over 4 post-All Star break. Wakefield has been awful. And Lowell's banged-up. None of these were factors in June.
And ironically enough, the one area people are saying the Angels and Sox are even is at closer, which I find laughable since Papelbon is much better than K-Rod in my opinion.
You guys can have your win shares and VORP and OPS and whatever other stat you'd like to throw out there. I'm into stats too (real ones, not weighted pythagorean outcomes), and the biggest stat I see is that the Angels were 8-1 against Boston this year. So for anyone to sit there and tell me that I'm CRAZY for suggesting they're a more complete team, how do you reconcile that stat? We all know about the 1988 NLCS between the Dodgers and Mets, so yes anything is possible. But as anyone can tell you, all of the stats in the world can't account for how two teams play when they are matched up against one another. The Angels also have home field advantage. Boston is a sub-.500 team on the road this year. But I suppose there's a stat out there that'll prove that they "should" be 50-31.
And ironically enough, the one area people are saying the Angels and Sox are even is at closer, which I find laughable since Papelbon is much better than K-Rod in my opinion.
You guys can have your win shares and VORP and OPS and whatever other stat you'd like to throw out there. I'm into stats too (real ones, not weighted pythagorean outcomes), and the biggest stat I see is that the Angels were 8-1 against Boston this year. So for anyone to sit there and tell me that I'm CRAZY for suggesting they're a more complete team, how do you reconcile that stat? We all know about the 1988 NLCS between the Dodgers and Mets, so yes anything is possible. But as anyone can tell you, all of the stats in the world can't account for how two teams play when they are matched up against one another. The Angels also have home field advantage. Boston is a sub-.500 team on the road this year. But I suppose there's a stat out there that'll prove that they "should" be 50-31.
Capella
CAPELLODINHO
You know, I can get into "advanced" stats and all, but this one really bothers me. They play a 162-game season. We don't need another theorem in place to tell us what the records should be. They are what they are. It's been played out over 6 months, and the luck (good and bad) has largely fallen into place for all teams. The Sox should not have 100 wins now, they should have 92. Just because they blew out some teams late in games really shouldn't make a difference.David Yudkin said:
wilked
Footballguy
XIn the lineup tonight
In September his ERA to this point is 2.16. He is peaking at the right time
#1, Wakefield may not see the field if the Angels pick the '3 Starter' series.That said, Wakefield is having arguably his best season since 2005, posting a 4.24 ERA (26th in the league), eating up 176+ innings (27th), and winning 10 games (31st).
He is not the staff ace (rather, the #4), but calling him awful is laughable, if not absurd.
Granted he has had two bad outings in Sept, but for a #4 starter what more can you want than this guy?
uhh, you do realize that every team in the league save one (Angels) are ≤ 0.500 on the road, right? Sox are a respectable 0.481 on the road. It will be a good series. I have Beckett taking Game 1, Dice-K losing Game 2, Lester winning Game 3 at home. I will be at Game 4, so obv the Sox close it out then
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Michael Brown
Footballguy
If an aging Yankee pitcher had two bad outings in September, you'd be telling us his career was over. And besides, I wasn't saying he was bad all year; rather, he's been awful lately. Which is true. And also serves to counter Yudkin's pythagorean argument.Are you expecting much from Drew? I wouldn't be.
And no one is saying the Sox are a BAD road team. Rather, they are a sub-.500 team on the road and that includes games against bad teams like the Royals, Yankees, etc. They will be facing arguably the league's best team and have to do it on the road, so I can't expect them to play much better than they have to this point.
As for Beckett, I'll take the 2+ month sample size over a handful of September starts, but I'll concede you may be right there. He hasn't been his typical dominant self much this season, however. And as you and countless others have argued for years in the A-Rod discussions, there's no such thing as "clutch" so we shouldn't expect Beckett to pitch any differently in the postseason than he does during the season.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Based off your response, even if we explained it to you I doubt you'd get it.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
sox in 4. enjoy the clinching game wilked!
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Sox.......
Interestingly, the sports books have tabbed Lester as a favorite in game 1 vs Lackey.
However, Angels are favored to win the series. Current divisional series odds if anyone cares to take a shot:
10/1/2008 2:00 PM Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies
201 Milwaukee Brewers +150
202 Philadelphia Phillies -175
10/1/2008 2:00 PM Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs
203 Los Angeles Dodgers +190
204 Chicago Cubs -230
10/1/2008 2:00 PM Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
205 Boston Red Sox +100
206 Los Angeles Angels -125
However, Angels are favored to win the series. Current divisional series odds if anyone cares to take a shot:
10/1/2008 2:00 PM Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies
201 Milwaukee Brewers +150
202 Philadelphia Phillies -175
10/1/2008 2:00 PM Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs
203 Los Angeles Dodgers +190
204 Chicago Cubs -230
10/1/2008 2:00 PM Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels
205 Boston Red Sox +100
206 Los Angeles Angels -125
Thorn
Footballguy
It's a way to give the sox more wins in a pretend 157-game season.
Linus Scrimmage
Footballguy
The Beckett "injury" is going to be an advantage for the red sox.
Dice K stats
Home 3.18 era 9 - 2 15 starts 87.2 inn .235 avg
Away 2.37 era 9 - 0 13 starts 76.0 inn .178 avg
9 wins in 13 starts with no loses? That's almost as close to a lock as you can get
I'm not very thrilled with the idea that Lowell and Drew are in the starting lineups though.
I think it's going to be a close series, but I'll take the Sox in 4.
Dice K stats
Home 3.18 era 9 - 2 15 starts 87.2 inn .235 avg
Away 2.37 era 9 - 0 13 starts 76.0 inn .178 avg
9 wins in 13 starts with no loses? That's almost as close to a lock as you can get
I'm not very thrilled with the idea that Lowell and Drew are in the starting lineups though.
I think it's going to be a close series, but I'll take the Sox in 4.
the moops
Footballguy
157?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Here's the jist of the Pythagorean stuff . . .
For starters, wins and losses are adjusted for runs scored compared to runs allowed.
That total is adjusted based on an equivalent runs scored formula to compare the team vs the league as a whole.
That total is then adjusted based on strength of schedule, the strength of the pitching of the opponent, and the strength of the hitting of the opponent.
Add it all up and that's how you get the Sox having the highest adjusted win total.
The top five teams with that adjusted formula were:
BOS 102.2 wins
TB 97.0 wins
CHC 94.5 wins
TOR 92 wins
NYY 91.3 wins
You can put whatever faith in that as you want, but that's what the Baseball Prospectus folks are calculating.
For starters, wins and losses are adjusted for runs scored compared to runs allowed.
That total is adjusted based on an equivalent runs scored formula to compare the team vs the league as a whole.
That total is then adjusted based on strength of schedule, the strength of the pitching of the opponent, and the strength of the hitting of the opponent.
Add it all up and that's how you get the Sox having the highest adjusted win total.
The top five teams with that adjusted formula were:
BOS 102.2 wins
TB 97.0 wins
CHC 94.5 wins
TOR 92 wins
NYY 91.3 wins
You can put whatever faith in that as you want, but that's what the Baseball Prospectus folks are calculating.
Thorn
Footballguy
wilked
Footballguy
Lesterwanna guess who is pitching Game 5?
mex
Footballguy
nobody because the Angels win in 4
I got the Red Sox to win the series at +130.I would have also been on the Dodgers to win their series, but the line dropped down to +160, so I passed at that number.I'm predicting Red Sox in 4, Dodgers in 5, Phillies in 4 and Rays in 5
