Redraft '24 - The BIG One (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I have the first 90 picks according to ADP at many places.

-I break them down for both 10 and 12-team leagues, you can see how difficult it is in larger leagues trying to get the edge on other GMs.
I feel like I should have worked even longer on this and it does need more commentary, perhaps including a Round by Round 1-10/12 so it's more obvious my intentions

I welcome all comments and will be happy to answer questions.

I do have a few more rounds I would like to discuss and several sleepers that do not appear in much of the discussion. I also feel pressed to get this out before many of you draft in your long time home leagues and also the big ones in places like Las Vegas where I would imagine ADP many times is thrown right out the window

Without much further ado, let's get this party started!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1.01 CMC - coming off a 2,000+ yds and 21 TDs with 67 catches to boot and they barely use him. 272 carries is not abuse for a front line RB over 17 games. 329 touches in ‘22, 339 in ‘23.
There’s not a lot to discuss here, safe pick with little downside except for total wear n tear since entering the league, doesn’t seem to be slowing him down. And he really has found his stride since changing from a poor offense to a good offense. If only there were others going thru the same type of scenery change.

-Before we get to the 2nd pick, there is a small pool of elite WRs that all go somewhere in the 1st round - Hill, CDL, JJ, Chase, ARSB and AJB I would also slip into this tier. Does that make them all just as good as the other because they sit in the same tier and have an ADP in the 1st round? That’s what the websites and media want you to believe but I have a different take on a few of these and remember how often we see 1st round land mines, many years it’s 50/50 at best in the 1st round, especially because the price tag is so high. If you take Tyreek Hill 1st out of this batch, you aren’t going to be happy if he finishes 8th.

1.02/1.03 CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill - They are very close and depending on your Redraft League, either of these seem to be acceptable fits if you are picking 2nd or 3rd. Personally, I don’t care for CDL at the moment, this contract holdout is wearing thin, it starts to get into conditioning for Weeks 1-2-3…sure he can be extended right before the start of the season but there is no way to simulate training camp, I’ve heard this directly from former players and so the risk factor of Lamb getting injured early in the season could be higher than normal. Same thing happens to pitchers who have to wait for a contract until the season starts, Blake Snell should have had an entire spring training but didn’t and ended up getting injured early in the MLB season.

At the same time, Hill is 30 years old and missed a few games last year at a very crucial point in the season. I don’t fault anyone for taking him at No 2 and ahead of a few others in this tier. I don’t fault those who grab CDL but I will point out that Lamb is not surrounded by a lot of talent and defenses will find it easier to key in on him with no big threat at RB…unless Rico seizes the moment but I don’t see enough at RB right now to scare anyone so all the focus will be Lamb and disrupting the timing.

-The next 3-4 players all go in a different variety of mix n match but I’ll stick to the script and just base everything as I see it on current ADP. Because of the questions at WR even in the elite tier, there are 2 running backs that seem to pop up in the top/middle part of the 1st round, neither of them has totaled 1,000 yds rushing over a 17 game schedule but these days we typically measure total yds and receptions play a big part of the expectations.

1.04 Breece Hall - Last season he was the only thing at times for the Jets. Wilson had a great season at WR but with no QB almost all the focus was trying to get Hall loose. 1,500 yds/9 TDs, he flashes a lot of talent and anyone who watches a variety of RBs can see the talent. But this is a leap of faith to think he will easily be a Top 5 FF player, not just RB but 5th overall at WR/RB/TE, it’s a lot to shoot for with this pick at No 4. He’s already missed half his rookie season, durability could also be a factor. Almost 300 touches last season including 76 catches, I’ll take the under on that one. Rodgers is terrific at QB as long as he’s healthy, he can distribute the ball better than anything they’ve had, I don’t think of Rodgers as dumping it off to the RB all the time. Add in the Jets organization in general, there’s more risk here than you might initially think.

1.05 Bijan Robinson - new Head Coach, new QBs both starting and on the bench, we really don’t know yet what the expectations should be but based on talent and things we heard about him coming out of college, we’re paying top dollar. 900+ rushing and 4 TDs on the ground…Is he a shoe-in for another 60 balls receiving with so many weapons that have been waiting for a QB to arrive to showcase what they got? I like Bijan plenty but I think the risk at No 5 is a lot, you’re mostly taking a leap of faith. The Falcons also have another RB on the roster that isn’t terrible, teams tend to not load up their lead RB with 20+ touches a game, Robinson had 272 his rookie season, not really abused by Atlanta, some folks would like to see Robinson used a lot more.

1.06 Ja’Marr Chase 1,455/13TD as a rookie, 1,050/9TD and missed 5 full games his 2nd year, his numbers were on pace with his rookie season. Last year he lost his QB along the way, still managed to rack 100/1,200/7TDs and that was with Burrow missing a large part of the season. And yet I hear these internet/”XYZ” sites with the same folks that said Stafford would never throw a football again last year, his elbow nerves were shot and he couldn’t even grip a football we were told…The Sky is Falling! They say bad things about Chase online in similar ways.

-What concerns me more is that Cincinnati has arguably one of the very best QB-WR1-WR2 combos in the entire league…I can count on one hand the number of teams that have enough at these 3 spots to strike fear into almost any Defense and the Bengals are one of them and yet they can’t seem to keep all 3 positions healthy including 2 lost seasons for Joe Burrow out of the 4 seasons he’s played including a trip to the Super Bowl. I’ve always had my doubts about Cincinnati as an organization, they do not know how to protect their best players and that concerns me. But Chase has a track record that is hard to beat or even match. Would I take him at 6? Not with some of the other choices still available but I’m not going to pretend he’s a landmine waiting to implode, the facts simply do not support that.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1.07 Amon-Ra St Brown - The ultimate PPR machine that is being drafted at his highest point. But when you look at some of the risk in the elite WR tier, this guy is a safe blanket for many who play FF. ARSB has 310 targets over the last 2 years, he literally had a monopoly on the passing game outside of La Porta last season at TE. His numbers jumped from 106 to 119 catches, 1160 to over 1,500+ and 5-6 TDs became 10 TDs. Will he repeat those numbers in 2024? I think the evolution of Gibbs 1-A along with Monty at 1-B plus La Porta and then ARSB, that’s the offense or what we have seen to this point. And there’s not a lot pushing for targets behind him but I could see a slight down tick in his overall production.

-Is 100/1,300/8TDs enough to take him around here? He does seem like a safe bet to catch 100+ balls, as long as you understand the likelihood of him hitting 1,500+ yds is not super high, most WRs, Hall of Fame WRs I would remind you, many of them did not post multiple 1,500+ yd seasons so don’t be shocked if he doesn’t repeat his 2023 campaign. I like him and think he’s safe but you are not distancing yourself or winning your league with ARSB single handedly. He can be part of a strong WR stable you draft, but I see him taking a slight step back in stats this season. If you don’t want to go through the roller coaster of the next guy on this list, ARSB is a safe port for a lot of FF ships at this spot in the draft.

1.08 Justin Jefferson - I just have no faith in Sam Darnold over a 17 game schedule. I could see JJ turning on his 1 year deal Quarterback, it’s not like the Vikings are gonna get rid of him. I’m sure he will be heavily involved each week in the game plan but you throw it enough to him and after a while defenses are going to trick Darnold and create interceptions, that leads to less pass attempts, see Devante Adams for how things can sometimes work out with poor QB play all season. JJ has immense talent, one of the elite NFL Wide Receivers, there is no debate about this but he has a terrible starting QB and a WR can only do so much with average or below average QB play. Do you put Darnold ahead of Tua “Two Seconds” Tags? (that’s about how long Tua has to make a decision with that OL) I don’t and I’m a big TT critic but even I can see the difference between the two of them and Hil is going just a few spots ahead of JJ with a much better QB/Offense situation than JJ. I see tons of risk with this pick but at No 8, many FF fans will jump right in and feel like they got a gift. Which POV is right as the season unfolds?

-We are about to hit an MoP sweet spot in the 1st, for some who might have the turn in a 10-team redraft, you especially want to pay attention here

-One of the MoP stay out of trouble and get your butt to the Playoffs rule is splitting the picks in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th at RB and WR, usually we like a split at RB/WR in the 1st/2nd, don’t get yourself pinned into the corner where you start making bad decisions, get off the ropes!
5th round is where we might look to go off script at TE for example but you quickly find that WR and RB dry up and you are left looking at “Half-a Backs” as I like to call them or Flex style WRs that you would rather not have to rely on week in and week out as a starter on your roster.

1.09 Saquon Barkley - I liked him a lot more when he was going in the middle of the 2nd round Picks 16-18 earlier in the summer but the cat is out of the bag and people have started to zero in on him earlier it would seem. I am not alone because I have seen other posters in the Saquon thread that have him as high as I do which is above a couple RBs already taken so even here I would say that GMs are getting a decent deal at the back end of the 1st round. I think the uneasiness with a couple of the top tier WRs has created some to look into the 2nd round and take guys a little ahead of their ADP, that would seem to be the case here.

-Won’t go on endlessly but I feel strongly towards Barkley. There will be a ringing theme on many of the picks I like, I’m a fan of the Philly Offense, sure the OL is a little scary with new pieces shuffling in and out right now, but I think the skill level of the QB-WR1-WR2-TE and then you add in Saquon at RB and you have one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL. If you like other RBs in this area even better, that’s fine as we are going to hit on several great selections coming up.

1.10 AJ Brown - Hands down I have him ahead of a few others in that Top 6-7 tier at WR, would feel very comfortable taking him higher in the 1st round

He has amassed B2B 1,400+ yd seasons and demands a lot of targets even with the rich talent around him. I find it funny how Smith and Waddle were drafted very high and play 2nd fiddle to a couple of elite WRs that these teams feel are essential to run the offenses.

2.950+ Rec Yds/18 TDs last 2 seasons in Philly, I love his upside any week and in recent years I have been able to snag him in the 2nd/early 3rd to pair with another top tier WR, this season just isn’t one of them but he’s worth the investment.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

2.01/1.11 Jonathan Taylor - 2,171/20TD in 2021…
2022 and 2023 combined = 1,895 yds total and 12 TDs combined, his last 2 seasons don’t even add up to what he did in ‘21 and some of it has to do with an up and down offense that is trying to cater itself to the talents of Anthony Richardson. The guy has a resume that shows as a rookie and 2nd year player what he can do. What happened last year? Injuries are part of it but there was a bad contract issue, (CeeDee Lamb ‘24) and it just seemed to override everything else. Even when he was paid and extended there seemed to be bad blood going around. The optics have not been good and I can find other options around here with less mystery IMHO.

2.02/1.12 Jahmyr Gibbs - Sure he has a counterpart that gets a lot of touches as well but Gibbs started to shine the 2nd Half of ‘23, that also seemed to match when Monty was missing time for injuries, Gibbs showed he was worth the high investment Detroit spent. He’s locked and loaded and ready to roll. 52 catches, 1,200+ total yds and 11 TDs, he’s definitely capable of a lot more. I like the upside despite sharing the load and I like Gibbs more than others around this area. I’d be worried if he were going to take on 350+ touches. I like him paired with AJB in 10-team formats, good way to get your team going early in the draft.

2.03/2.01 Garrett Wilson - I guess if you believe in Rodgers being upright all year, maybe you see WIlson improving on his 1st 2 seasons where he eclipsed 1,000+ yds both years with poor QB play most of the time. Still feels like he is being taken at the top top end of where he should go. There are a lot of Wide Receivers that are gonna go in the next 20-24 picks, WIlson is solid but there are others I might like better and would be tempted to pull further down the ADP list. I wouldn't want to feel forced into this pick. Others love the guy despite just 3 TD as a rookie and 4 TDs last year, Rodgers might change that stat. 85/1,100/8TDs, is that a wild expectation? That’s what you are expecting here if not more.

2.04/2.02 Puka Nacua - I believe the Rams will need to throw the ball a lot to win 9-10 games and make it back to the Playoffs, I just am not sure Nacua will equal his numbers from last year, he had an entire month+ to himself to start the season. I do think Kupp will re-emerge as the No 1 option in the passing game, a slight down tick in yds could be countered with a slight uptick in TD catches where he landed just 6 on 105/1,486 production over the other 2 categories. A lot of his production was in the 1st 7 weeks, then he has a couple bigger games in Weeks 15 and 16, some might not have been around long enough to cash in on that. He also has several duds when Kupp returned and was more active in the game plan. There is a lot of risk with him as a high 2nd round pick at WR, especially if this is your WR1 you are planting the flag with.

2.05/2.03 Kyren Williams - B2B Rams with basically 1 good year and they are being overdrafted IMHO. Williams had 15 rushing TDs, look at most RBs across the league, not many consistently hit this number. His yds per carry rose from 4 to 5, is that real or inflated? I was never floored watching this guy run the football but maybe I don’t need to be for him to have a productive 2024, I just don’t think I will be investing a Top 15-20 pick on him this year. Other players I like better in the 2nd round.

-I heard the 2nd round was loaded with great finds but so far I find a lot of it to be pretty ho hum or risky based on what they did in 2023. Where are guys gonna be drafted in 2025? If you have that list I would love to see it.

2.06/2.04 Marvin Harrison Jr - How about we run the “Zonk” prize from Let’s Make a Deal? How about an 8 foot tall couch with diapers the size of large area rugs? I can keep making jokes here but the risk of a rookie WR in the first 18-20 picks is hard to measure. This is the WR1 for some teams? And you’re going to put that up against Hill, CDL, ARSB and AJB just to name a few of the WRs that go just a few picks ahead of Junior. Redraft ‘24, I’ll pass at this price point, seems foolish but I understand how some get seduced.

2.07/2.05 Derrick Henry - (Long Pause)
MoP has a projected bid/total of 1,500+ total yds and 15 TDs
“Showcase Showdown Winner!” Cue the music Johnny

The Ravens know exactly what they are doing and he very well could be the finishing touches on a Super Bowl run for Baltimore, I have them down as the 1-Seed in the AFC, they will be nursing leads throughout the season, sometimes they might not want to over use Henry but it’s hard to not see him as productive in this offense. Last year was not the best measuring stick for him in a very limited offense with the Titans. Pairing him with a WR you covet in the 1st is a winning formula. Pairing him with Barkley towards the end of the 1st/early 2nd isn’t a bad idea either, both of them are going to follow in CMC’s footsteps and do much better on their upgraded offenses where they landed. Do you think Baltimore is the only team that offered Henry a deal? Of course not but he’s over 30 and wants to have a deep Playoff run, who could blame him? Both sides enter into this feeling very optimistic, so should you.

2.08/2.06 Travis Etienne - I was sure I wasn’t going to like his ADP but when you look at what he’s done since missing his entire Rookie season, a season many others on that team would have liked to have not taken part in, but you look at ‘22 and then ‘23, his numbers are pretty strong. Paired with a stud from Round 1, this is a decent selection at RB.
1,441/5 TD to 1,484/12 TDs, my only quibble is his ypc dropped from 5 to under 4 at 3.8 yds per carry, that’s not a good number. His touches rose from 255 to 325, almost 20 per game and he catches plenty of balls, Jacksonville is still trying to formulate the WR1/WR2 and Kirk has the slot, Engram at TE but most feel he saw too many targets for the numbers he produced. But despite a lot of questions in the passing game, Etienne seems like a pretty sure thing at RB in this offense. No problem with folks that like taking him in the middle of the 2nd, you could do a lot worse.

2.09/2.07 DeVante Adams - Huge dip last season but the Raiders fired a Head Coach early into his 2nd season, the whole team on offense was tough to gauge. 2020, 2021 and 2022 were very high levels of Adams career and now he is 31 years old, not ancient at WR but he might not be as sure a thing as he once was. 1,374/18Tds, 1,553/11Tds, 1,516/14TDs and then last year that dropped down to 1,144/8TDs and Adams recorded his 5th 1,000+ yd season. He is in the discussion for the Hall of Fame although it’s not the slam dunk everyone thinks. 95 career TDs, 6 double digit TD seasons, he might already be in but a couple more strong seasons would cement his legacy. I think Minshew will find him and be able to keep his stats rolling enough to justify the selection. Solid pick but some risk, better option than some other 2nd round picks.

2.10/2.08 Isiah Pacheco - 170 carries a s rookie, 205 his 2nd season, not exactly what we call a bellcow but he also catches some passes to help pad the numbers. Saw his catch total jump from 13 to 44 last year, will that trend continue? Could Year 3 be one of his best 2-3 seasons ever as a Pro? Possibly but you have to see a scenario where he enhances what Mahomes is doing, hard to imagine the Chiefs as a power running team although with that Super Bowl Defense, it’s not a bad idea. Never gonna happen with Mahomes at QB, too easy to sling the ball all over the place. I think Pacheco will underwhelm everyone again, his numbers last season were not off the chart by any means. Where is Pacheco going to be drafted next year? He’s already going in the Top 20. Are we at “Half-a-Back” yet?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

3.01/2.09 Travis Kelce - Missed 1,000 yds receiving for the first time in 7-8 years and it was only by a handful of yards, 11-9-12 TD the previous 3 seasons dropped all the way to 5 and that might stop folks from taking him No 1 overall at TE. Hard to argue against a Hall of Fame TE, likely 1st ballot with 3 rings around his fingers and having a huge say in how the offense performed over those winning seasons. I’m not going to scream at folks that value his consistency but he does turn 35 this season and he’s kind of working 2 jobs with the NFL and then touring with Swift all the time, it can wear on a person.

3.02/2.10 Josh Allen - A QB has to come off the board at some point. I’m not going to talk at great length about most of the early QBs, you like ‘em then take ‘em but there are so many QBs, some seem undervalued by a lot. Allen lost a lot at WR, it remains to be seen if what was brought in and drafted can replace what left. 15 Rushing TDs last season, 6 more than his best year previously, normally he’s at 7-8-9 Rush TDs but he also threw for 35-37 TDs prior to putting up 29 last season, broke a 3 year run with at least 35 passing TDs so it balanced out. He’s a top level QB that can put up 30-40 on any week to cover holes at other positions. But you have a lot of choices at QB and you give up something at WR or RB by taking him here.

3.03/2.11 Chris Olave - Just not a big fan of Dennis Alllen, Carr at QB, and yet this guy has posted B2B 1,000+ yd seasons his 1st 2 years in the NFL. When you look at the stats/facts, MoP can feel anything he wants but the results would say he belongs in this tier. What hasn’t happened are the TDs which seem to top out at 4-5 so far but that could change. Is Olave really a bad option as perhaps your WR2? Went from 119 targets up to 138 last season. 87/1,123 ain’t bad and there isn’t anyone that is going to take his targets away. I love Shaheed but that’s a different style of WR IMHO.

3.04/2.12 Drake London - Takes us to the turn in 12-team leagues. His production does not justify this selection or pick but many are pumped he finally has a decent QB throwing him the ball. Imagine he just shows up each week and gets decent QB play, he could easily hit the 80/1,100+/6+Tds and that would likely justify the selection around here. He could easily surpass others in the first couple rounds but it will also take some serious work on his part, a higher yds per catch than what we have thus far seen and a fairly large uptick on his TDs but he has a chance to land in the Top 12 this year. But we are talking about the Atlanta Falcons, their way of doing business and building their team is questionable to many. I think transitioning from Matt Ryan to anyone was going to be challenging for them. And trying to fill the shoes of Roddy White and Julio Jones is not easy for someone like Drake London. This is a different team than the one we saw 10 years ago.

3.05/3.01 De’Von Achane - Only had 27 catches, missed at least 6 weeks and likely was a little on the ginger side in a few others, only had…wait a minute this can’t be right, 103 carries? 130 touches for a RB and he totals close to 1,000 yds of offense and 11 TDs, and you add up what the other RB for Miami did and you have a big pie to cut into.

-Let’s not sugarcoat it, some think he’s highly injury prone already so I have a battle plan for those that want the Miami offense/RB production but worried about risk. If you are in a 10 team league, it’s a little easier to see yourself doing this, in 12 team leagues it might be a stretch.

If you take Achane 25th overall you MUST draft Jaylen Wright as a handcuff and I will explain why, for some this will be obvious. There is no way the Miami running attack can be on all cylinders with just Achane or just Mostert, some folks are taking Achane and Mostert and thinking they got it figured out but I disagree. If Raheem stays healthy, he’s likely to carry it 175-200 times or 10-12 carries per game, Achane is somewhat in the same category, don’t see him carrying the ball more than 8-10-12 times a game and it won’t be consistent but where I do think he is going to make waves is the missing WR3 slot in this Miami Offense, I call for 50 balls this year being caught by Achane, that’s my take on where he can expand his numbers. I also don’t think he will come anywhere close to that 8 yds per clip he was running last season, mainly because the interior of the Miami OL is GONE!

Achane? How about “Achance” and if you do, I would take the rookie as a handcuff, Wright will see touches anyways but the minute one of these 2 starters is on the shelf, Wright’s value skyrockets and you help cover your risk taking Achane or even Mostert later on, I like Wright as a handcuff to either of them. As a Miami fan it is hard to be unbiased, it would be hard to pass in the Mid 3rd of a 10-team league but you also take on mega risk.

150-750-8Td and 52-420-4Td and I am assuming he starts or is healthy to suit up 15-16 games.
1,200 yds/12 TDs on about 200 touches which is a big increase from 130 but his yds per carry must come down, just trying to be reasonable. If your projections are higher I am all ears.

3.06/3.02 Sam LaPorta - How sweet it is to pick in the middle of those 10 team leagues, you can jump the gun on AJB or Barkley in the 1st, chance to grab Henry in the 2nd and then you could go TE with LaPorta in the 3rd. AJB-Henry-LaPorta, anchor at 3 big positions, QBs are plenty and you are off to the races. All that said, I am not as high on LaPorta this year simply because it is such a high investment. He had the rookie season of all time last year, maybe he improves but my gut says we see a slight downtick in Touchdowns. But it’s possible he reaches the same plateau, he’s very talented and it’s obvious when you watch him play. I can understand why a GM would reach right out there and take him. And if you can’t grab one of the next few at TE and you know when it swings back you might not be as excited about the TE possibilities, Mid-3rd in TE PPR/1.5 is not that big of a reach, even early 3rd for 12-team, you’re going to have the advantage many weeks.

3.07/3.03 Patrick Mahomes - Much like I felt about Allen in the 2nd, this is not about the Super Bowl MVP as much as it is the plethora of arms you can choose from. IMHO, the Chiefs haven’t gotten light years better at their skill positions so there is a limit to how much Mahomes will outpace other options on Sundays. I enjoy watching him play, that’s never gonna change but as far as taking him here in the 3rd round, I like assembling my starting WRs and RBs plus even the TE position before I reach for a QB.

3.08/3.04 Josh Jacobs - I want to like him…playing in what many would say is an upgrade for total offense and he should be the person to reap the benefits. If you remove the career year in 2022, Jacobs still is on avg about 1,200-1,300 yds plus about 8 TDs and then you add in catches, he’s cleared 50 twice in his career. Can he start 15+ games? I think maybe the fact he got hit many times behind the LOS or had few holes to find, I’m willing to buy on the dip here.

Another guy you can pair in the 3rd with someone you liked a lot in the 1st or 2nd and likely have your two starting RBs before the 3-4 turn or you can wait on RB knowing you get a guy with some upside in the 3rd you like. Others likely soured after last season, we haven’t discussed value too much here but this could be a buy low opportunity for some folks. The Packers did draft a RB and still have Dillon to vulture some TDs here and there. Still plenty of chances for Jacobs to showcase his talents in this offense.

3.09/3.05 Nico Collins - I like Nico and loved his year 3 breakout but is 80/1297/8TD repeatable with the addition of Diggs into the WR stable. Collins is 6-4, plays and looks like he’s 6-8 in uniform, this guy is a BIG target, hard to imagine CJS ignoring him but there will be a limited amount of targets to go around at times. He’s going to have some 4/75 days that leave GMs wanting a little more. Not to mention the presence of Tank Dell and a decent TE, there are many options for Stroud to dial up. I could see a slight tick down in yds but an uptick in TDs so 1,000/10TDs is not off the board here. Diggs has never been a massive TD machine but I think he will take away targets and catches which equals yards. But you can see what Nico brings when they enter the Red Zone, he’s just a bully and while listed at 220, he looks bigger to me.
Hard to fault anyone that rolls the dice on Nico but I also would like to see this offense take shape this year, I’d be more interested in another slice of the pie later on in the Draft.

3.10/3.06 Jalen Hurts - I’ve drafted him before, I’m not new to anything he does. I think with Barkley coming on board and Kelce retiring, we might not see the push tush as often around the end zone is all I’m saying. This team is built for a Super Bowl run, have no illusions about what you are going to witness in ‘24. There is talent at every skill position but where I see 10-13-15 rushing TDs from Hurts the last 3 seasons, I think that will slide down to single digits easily, the flip side to that coin could be a career year throwing TDs, so far he’s only hit 22 and 23, why couldn’t he hit 25-30+ with all the talent at WR, TE and RB? 3,700 and 3,800 pass yds last 2 seasons, is this the year that number rises to over 4,000? Lots of options at QB much later IMHO but Hurts has a chance to be a top 5 QB this year, that’s why people are taking him this high.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

4.01/3.07 James Cook - 281 touches including 44 receptions which this guy makes count as he was over 10 yds a catch last season and over 8 his rookie year, 237 carries, he is the RB1 on this offense and will continue to be so even though I like the rookie Davis but he’s there to be the RB2 in the offense not option 1B his rookie year. I think Cook will go over 300 touches this year, the Bills lost a lot on offense. I liked him a lot as his draft spot last year. For the 3-4 turn in 10 team leagues I think he makes a terrific RB2 behind whatever you got on the 1-2 turn so again when you pick at the end of the 1st, not a death sentence at all IMHO.

-If you see Cook as a potential 1st/2nd round selection at RB in 2025, then you see not only good value around this spot but you want this guy as one of your starting RBs, last season he was thought of more as a platoon type with others you could rotate at RB2/Flex, this year I see him in the Top 10-12 RBs, that would push him more into the RB1/High upside RB2 tier

4.02/3.08 Deebo Samuel - Way too high for a guy that has direct competition for targets and with a stud RB like CMC that demands the football not by his words but by results, there really is not a big upside here taking Deebo, you can get similar production later. He also has missed several games the last 2 seasons. 56/632/2 then 60/892/7TD last year and he’s going Top 50 in every draft. I know what he did in 2021 but that seems like a long time ago before CMC arrived and Aiyuk developed into what he is right now. If anyone should be traded it’s Deebo for the Niners. Oh wait a minute, this guy is able to push the stat sheet by running the football, not many WRs can add in another 5 TDs rushing, is that something you should always plan on? It does make for an 1,100+ total yds/12 TD campaign in 2024 which look a lot better. Still feels like you are paying heavily, this is a Mid 3rd in 12-team leagues. The low number of catches scares me at this point of the draft.

4.03/3.09 Mike Evans - Not 1 Not 2 Not 3 Not 4 Not 5 Not 6 Not 7 Not 8 Not 9 but 10 consecutive 1,000+ yd seasons since he came into the NFL, avg roughly 70-75 catches a season and over the last 4 years including Baker Mayfeild last season and an aging 43-44-45 yr old Brady, he caught 13-14-6-13 and last year was 79/1255/13 TD, he just keeps on chugging. 15th WR off the board, he’s not really a WR1 as much although he hits that level a few times during the season. He’s a solid WR2 for most teams and in 10 teams leagues I could even see someone scoping him up as a WR3 if they went that way early in Rounds 1-4.

How do I get WR1 level production out of my 2nd and 3rd slots at Wide Receiver? That’s one of the questions you should be asking yourself

4.04/3.10 Raschaad White - 64 catches, 336 touches, a 3.6 yds per carry avg that is a carbon copy of his rookie year where he was 3.7, Bucs interior OL stunk more recently, that could change but the rookie Center has a long way to go. 64/1,539/9TDs and I will take the under all day on this one. I’m not anti-Raschaad White but I do think there is a limit to what he can do. We are talking late 3rd/mid 4th RB2 range so he can certainly hit something like that and maybe makes him a possibility for more rosters out there. I know he has a lot of fans, and Baker likes to check down or dump off to his RBs, White had 70 targets and caught 64 of them. If his yds per carry were to rise over 4/4.2/4.5 then you would have a more dynamic package on your hands. A better QB that scared more defenses would likely make for more open holes so it all correlates.

4.05/3.11 Brandon Aiyuk - Just the facts…’22 and ‘23 he has emerged as a strong WR. 75/1,000+/8TD, 75/1,342/7TD why the big rise in yds per catch? Went from 13 to almost 18, that’s a very high yds per catch in the NFL, he did this Year 4. 12.5 rookie and 1.8 the 2nd season…I would be timid to project over 15 yds a catch. 80/1,200/8TD, is that a terrible projection? Looks like a perfect golf swing for your WR2. If you went RB-RB on the 1-2 turn in Redraft, this isn’t the worst way to start your WR stable but you are venturing into one of the few teams that sports not 1 but 2 WRs that both clear 1,000 yds or are thought to in their offenses. Sometimes that doesn’t always work out.

4.06/3.12 Michael Pittman Jr - In MoP’s best Tom Cruise voice from A Few Good Men “How does a 6-4/225 Wide Receiver in the National Football League have such a low yds per catch his 1st 4 seasons? 12-12-9 and 10, can you explain that Colonel?” “We’ll get to the GITMO/ARICH Log Books in a minute”...He is likely to have another 100-1,000-4TDs, that’s what he’s done the last 2 seasons and he has a QB that prefers to run the football any time he can do so. I hear fans groan in the game threads a lot on Sundays. I’m sure Pittman fits a lot of rosters the ay they are drafted and designed but he just doesn’t make the MoP cut for what I’m looking for up top in the 1st 4-5 rounds. But I understand and respect why folks draft him. I wish he had a better Quarterback situation so this comes down to personal preferences. You cannot deny he is the first option on almost any pass play so he’s very involved. 100 catches is usually something that many crave on their rosters. He could be a WR3 in some 10-team leagues, that might be a perfect spot where he can get you WR1/2 production some weeks and you are making a bolder move when you take him. What if his TDs creep up to 8 or more? 7/72 isn’t always a bad week for a WR in PPR.

4.07/4.01 Cooper Kupp - “Double Showcase Showdown Winner!” Nothing to really discuss here, I see him taking back his spot on the team as option 1A and let’s not forget this guy was unstoppable not very long ago. He’s only played 21 out of 34 regular season games the last 2 seasons and word is he is pretty darn healthy right now, BUY on the DIP!

12-team at the end of the 1st, 10-11-12 spots, you can get either star from Philly and Gibbs, then you can go Aiyuk and Kupp, certain things would need to fall just right but you have a chance to come out of the 4th round stacked at whichever position you want to lean towards. I say split the picks the first 4 rounds but I also like 1RB-3WRs or “The Blade” as I like to call it at WR. Why roll out just one WR1 when you can roll out a lead or Top12 WR at ALL 3 slots?

4.08/4.02 Joe Mixon - Consistently average his entire career, played behind an agv to below avg OL many seasons, but still just consistently average. His numbers went up when Burrow arrived for sure. His last 3 seasons look much different than his first 4 and I see an uptick in his receptions. I think he will see catches but not as many as he saw in Cincinnati more recently.

1,519/16TD, 1,255/9TD(missed 3+ games) and last year 1,410/12TD, his receptions 42-50-62 over that 3 year span, not sure I see him hitting that again, I’m at around 40 tops but his rush yds and TD opportunities will be high with the Texans, they have added more weapons and get Tank Dell back, this offense could be very explosive, what does that do for a guy like Mixon that is not usually thought of as elite? It would seem like the Mid 4th or even early 4th as an RB2, where is the downside? They know Mixon is a lead RB, doubt he falls down on the depth charts. They need him when they have leads in the 2nd Half, he’s going to get work. If you went WR heavy up top, this is a decent spot to drop anchor at RB. What if you got Jacobs in the 3rd after WR-WR, you would have a decent floor to build around in coming rounds.

4.09/4.03 Lamar Jackson - QB4 off the board, that sounds about right. Once again, I will not be taking a QB early in most of my leagues, very comfortable after the first 5-6 come off the board and perhaps much deeper than that. But I will say, there areas of the Draft Board where you aren’t making much difference from 1 RB to the next WR, they all fall into large tiers where the final stats on a PPG basis won’t look like that much at the end of the year. So an impact QB that could have some big weeks, easy to see the appeal. I think Henry will take away a few of Lamar’s TD on the ground, we’ll see if he evolves into more of a pocket passer to extend his career. Jackson is still just 27 yrs old, he likely can keep playing this style that has made him a star for a few more years but we’ve seen guys slow down after 30 that make a living by running the ball often to create plays or keep drives moving.

4.10/4.04 Stefon Diggs - I don’t have any issues projecting him for 85/1,000+/7-8TDs, look at his stats the last 4 years and his target totals are very similar year in year out, around 160 or about 10 a game, I can see that dropping to about 8 now. 103-108-107 his last 3 seasons after a 127/1535 campaign back in 2020 but that was a long time ago now. Solid WR2 for most teams. Maybe not spectacular but he’s a proven WR, Houston didn’t trade for him to stick him on the bench or not target him frequently. It’s partly why I see a slight ceiling on Nico Collins although maybe Diggs helps Nico at times during the games

 

[Ministry of Pain]

5.01/4.05 D.K. Metcalf - A star QB is all that keeps him from absolute greatness. A physical best of a WR, 66/1,110/8TD…7-10-12-6-8, he is on the higher side of avg TDs per season and maybe a new head coach will throw the ball a little more often although Geno Smith makes you rethink that a bit. I like the upside and we’re talking WR2/3 for a lot of teams. He’s very consistent and there is upside with him despite a very average starting QB for them.

-Diggs/Metcalf on the 4-5 turn as your WR2 and WR3 in a 10 team league, should help fill up the stat box for many or you can look ahead and see if you like something better down in the Mid/Late 5th, early 6th, it’s not too early to pull the trigger if you think you might miss out on the guy you want.

5.02/4.06 Alvin Kamara - Dealing with the facts, he is on the decline and has been for some time, maybe he still has it but the offense in New Orleans and the coaching staff is not inspiring much confidence with most of their picks for your roster. Be it a suspension or injuries, the guy never plays 16-17 games, 13-15-13 last 3 seasons, 1,337/9 followed by 1,387/4 and then last season he bottomed out at 1,160 and 6TDs, you look at what he did 3 of his 4 seasons in the NFL, obviously there is a lack of talent at QB and the weapons at the skill positions are not being utilized to their max capacity right now. It brings everything down. I know some will believe they are getting a steal here. 47-57 and then 75 catches last year, he did have over 80 a season back in the day. His yds per catch dropped thru the floor vs other seasons, Carr has a lot to do with that, likes to dump it off. 60-1200-6TD…is that a reasonable expectation?That does make him somewhat valuable in PPR, does it not? I have mixed feelings about him, try to stick with the facts but he seems to be on the slide IMHO. 29 years young.

5.03/4.07 Jaylen Waddle - WR3 in a 10-team league, sign me up and something similar could happen in a 12 team league with a middle 4th round pick to slide in behind top tier types at the 1 and 2, now we’re cooking with gas. Where he was going way too high in the Mid 2nd last year, you get a guy on the dip again. 3 consecutive 1,000+ yd seasons to start his career and last year he missed a month with injuries, there is a lot of upside here. He was playing through injuries as well, hopefully he learns and understands how to play within his frame. I would have no hesitation taking him here. Dropped from 8TDs to 4 last season, otherwise I think he would be a full round ahead of where he’s at right now.

5.04/4.08 Kenneth Walker III - He still is the lead RB although i would think Seattle would want to work Charbonnett in a lot more Year 2. All teams like to have 2 RBs they can use, maybe not ALL of them but many use a 2-Back attack and try not to put all their eggs in one RB basket. 1,200/9 and then 1,150/9 while missing a couple games, he firmly is the starting RB right now. He’s not flashy but behind a so-so OL he managed 4.6 his rookie year but did fall to 4.1 last season. He’s yet to crack 30 catches and many don’t see him a dual threat or a big part of the passing game. I think Seattle has plenty at WR to overuse the RB in pass patterns.

5.05/4.09 Devonta Smith - As I am writing this, the news of the Dotson trade is breaking. I’m not sure about the impact just yet to Smith and the offense but I know Philly gave him $25M per year for a 3 year extension so they aren’t likely to bench Smith for Dotson. The Ministry also has been super high on Barkley, maybe he won’t catch as many balls as previously anticipated or maybe we have to take a few catches off everyone across the board and just temper expectations a little although I’m still super high on AJ Brown and Barkley leading the way. If you look at Smith, he really came on towards the end of last season. His numbers speak for themselves the last 3 years, there does seem to be a ceiling for his stats mostly because he has AJB across from him. Went from 136 targets to 112 last year, 120 for 2024 seems reasonable over 17 games. Another 1,000+ yds and 6-8TDs, no reason he can’t hit those numbers in this offense. It’s possible we haven’t even seen his best yet.

5.06/4.10 DJ Moore - I understand he has a rookie QB and a strong producing WR brought in by the name of Keenan Allen that isn’t toast just yet and then you add in a rookie WR with a lot of hype, it’s hard to imagine him going for 100/1,385/9TD again but he is the alpha in this group right now, has a lot more experience than the hyped up rookie and I don’t see Keenan Allen just shoving him to the side. Is 136 targets expected again? I don’t see 100 catches but I can see 75-80 easily, another push for 1,000+ yds and at least 5-6 TDs after posting 7 and 9 the past 2 seasons. That may not be what you want to hear and I can come up with some other projections but you can’t believe he hits the same numbers this season. Slight step back is to be expected and that’s why he is falling towards the 4-5 turn in some leagues and the middle 5th for the 10-team ones.

5.07/4.11 Mark Andrews - 108/1360/9TDs and we’re still paying for that 2021 season in 2024. Injuries have had a lot to do with the down tick in production but overall that looks more and more like a career year and not something to base your excitement level on. 100-110 targets would be a step in the right direction, great ground attack that will keep drives moving, Andrews should benefit from Henry in more ways than people might think. 75-850-7TDs, that’s what I think he will minimally accumulate if he can stay on the field. Is that enough to justify this pick, not sure you’re getting tremendous value here But he’s a solid pick to start your TE position with.

5.08/4.12 C.J. Stroud - If you were going to reach on a Top 5 QB and especially with the next guy off the board at QB, this is the guy I would be reaching for at QB in the 5th of a 10-team league if I had a strong base already at WR and RB, both starting positions so 2 of each. Yeah I might just reach out there and not have to worry about who I am flip flopping at QB each week which is what you will be doing by waiting until the 8th-9th-10th rounds to start taking QBs, and believe me I love waiting on QBs but this is one I have a hard time passing on. What he did as a rookie is nothing short of spectacular including winning the opening round of the Playoffs, this QB is years ahead of where many are going into Year 2 and they gave him a new toy at WR and RB1 with Mixon on board, he doesn’t have to do all the heavy lifting. I love watching him play.

5.09/5.01 Trey McBride - 80/825/3TDs, that’s all I can tell you because I didn’t watch a lot of McBride last year, my note cards are very extensive on this young man. The number of catches is eye popping of course for a TE but there is reason to think that he might see a few less targets this season. They invested heavily into Marvin Harrison Jr who went in the 2nd round of most Drafts so far this year, you can’t have it both ways. Would 65/700/4-5TDs, would that be a catastrophe for those taking him? Tight Ends were all over the place but this a great time to discuss the fact that McBride was in Year 2, i figured he was a rookie from the big draft class in 2023 but I learned he was 2022 in fact. Year 2…I highly encourage everyone to scroll thru the TEs taken in last year’s Draft. We’re about to roll up on one of my absolute favs but there are many from last year that figure to have a big leap Year 2. Six of them were taken in the first 2 rounds and obviously La Porta looks like the big winner but there is room for others to succeed and many times Year 2 is a better indicator of what to expect from a Tight End.

5.10/5.02 Dalton Kincaid - Showcase Showdown Winner! and I expect a big leap from him in Year 2, this is the point in the Draft where I like to start taking some risk, Kincaid is a fellow I have circled and want to draft, loved what I saw as a rookie and looking forward to more. No established WR that would take away from him, rookie WR possibly as the WR1 on this team, there is a huge hole to fill up and I’m not the least bit worried about Dawson Knox, a stiff compared to Kincaid and Knox isn’t even that bad.

He was a rookie and started to see the light of day in Week 7, shall we?
8/75, 5/65/TD, 10/81, 5/51/TD…what a run for a rookie over 4 weeks.
Targets stick at 7-8 but the production falls off a bit and then he only has 2 targets weeks 14 and 15, his last 2 games of the season with the usual 7-8 targets he produces 4/87 and 7/74, he is going to be a huge factor in the passing game this season like it or not.

7 targets a game is roughly 120 for the year by MoP Math, 80+/900+/4-6 TDs minimum and I actually can see a path where Kincaid could make a run for #1 overall TE in Year 2. Bills lost a lot and will be in some shootouts on Sundays. This is an easy pick for MoP

 

[Ministry of Pain]

6.01/5.03 Malik Nabers - WOW! I guess we’re at that point in the Draft where we are willing to bet blindly on a player we don’t know can adjust as a rookie in the NFL. Many want to make him an immediate stud but Daniel Jones is at least cause for concern and a big pause for folks like me. I want to see him play for a year, if he blows up then awesome. I don’t believe in the Giants very much and maybe in garbage time or time that doesn’t seem to matter, maybe he does carve out a huge season. But it’s not likely he will be on any of the MoP redraft teams, even if he succeeds to some degree, it might drive some GMs nuts trying to figure out when those will be. A few duds and even when he does blow up, he might be sitting on some folks bench. He’s going to be an all or nothing type of player his rookie season IMHO

6.02/5.04 Anthony Richardson - PASS! I’m not going to rip on him for 5 minutes, we have too many dynasty folks that are sold on him and I don’t want the thread to get into a tug of war about 1 QB. Instead I will simply say there are so many options that it seems ridiculous to reach for him at QB6 overall after what we saw unfold last season. That said, we are talking about the 6th round in some leagues and he is well liked in the FF community so I get where some folks are coming from. I still think it’s a very risky pick and simply not necessary in order to build a winner, in fact it might sink your ship if you’re not careful.

6.03/5.05 George Kittle - 930/6, 765/11, 1,022/6…has to compete for targets and seems to attract injuries that always have you guessing if you need to sit him or not, it is aggravating.
He hasn’t caught 80+ balls since 2019, but he does produce yds and TDs, this isn’t a terrible spot to grab him and I think I definitely like him over McBride but I could be off on this. You have a track record here that speaks for itself. 65/800/8TD, is that too high? He could do better than that of course and an injury to either lead WR and he might catch a few more balls. Would love to see him stay healthy. TE6 but you might need another TE if you take him to be your starter.

6.04/5.06 James Conner - I want to have a romance with the rookie Trey Benson but the facts are facts and Conner is decent value in this area. 1,082/8, 1209/9, he had 18 TDs in ‘21 but that was a career season, he’s likely to have about 240 touches total this season and miss almost a month or more, he’s started 13 and 13 the last 2 seasons, he has his limits but they play him like a 300 touch guy when you run the numbers. I do think Benson will see more and more touches throughout the season. Conner is 28+ and has a lot of wear and tear over 7 seasons starting for Pitt and Arizona, he’s not built to last and yet he’s still here. Would strongly encourage a rookie RB handcuff here and you’re probably good to go. Offense should be much better this season.

6.05/5.07 Amari Cooper - 75/1,100/7TDs, we good here? He;s consistent and Jerry Jeudy does not frighten me. All the trade talks about other WRs does not scare me at this point in the year as Week 1 is about ready to start. We overthink things sometimes and while Cooper is not a Top 12 WR, he performs at that level some weeks. It’s possible Watson finally arrives in Cleveland and shakes off this cloud that’s been hanging over him…WR3 territory, sign me up and I might even reach a few picks earlier than his ADP, seems like a better option in Redraft ‘24 vs some rookie Rs we already have discussed.

6.06/5.08 Aaron Jones - Loved this signing at first, disappointed that JJ McCarthy is gone for the year and no matter what Darnold does they are stuck with him. I’m kind of meh about it. He’s made his living as a dual threat and I think that will be harder with the Vikings this season. He hasn’t rushed for double digit TDs since 2019, also had a bad hammy last year. He could be part of a platoon at RB if you waited but you likely are not moving the needle with this pick vs the guy that just went off the board.

6.07/5.09 Joe Burrow - 4 seasons thus far and he’s finished how many of them? He has a legit chance to be Top 5 with his weapons but I question the OL and the scheme that requires longer routes to develop when you have a suspect OL. There’s nothing wrong rolling Burrow out there every week when he’s healthy, one of the best in the NFL, top 5. Are you buying on the dip here? Or are you setting yourself up for more injuries?

6.08/5.10 Zay Flowers - I love this pick and he did well as a rookie with a lot of room for improvement. 108 targets last season, let’s pencil him in for 120 so I’ll say 85/1,050/7TDs and the Ravens have a tougher schedule this season, they can’t just run the football all the time, they need to stretch the field although Flowers thus far feels more like a possession type that can catch it with a DB draped on him. Flowers has an opportunity to surpass even my lofty projections, he’s only 5-9 and that does put him in a different category from many ahead of him, he’s not physically imposing and we’ll need to watch him vs bigger DBs. I have plenty of faith in him where he’s being drafted, should compliment most rosters.

6.09/5.11 George Pickens - Something is missing with this guy and on the surface it appears like he has an attitude. I love the production last year with just 63 catches but 1,140/5 TDs, this guy has flashed the goods his first two seasons. And yet the Steelers are in big talk for Aiyuk with a suspect QB duo of Wilson and Fields, something just doesn’t add up. Maybe that’s why he falls to this spot in the Draft but I have a lot of questions towards him and the Steelers in general right now. OL is questionable and will take time to come together, maybe not until 2025.

Gambling on him as your WR3 or perhaps you waited at WR and needed someone with a high ceiling but understand that he could go up in flames, this might be your guy. I think the QB play is what is scaring everyone right now, I prefer Fields just because he can scramble and lengthen plays which bodes well for Pickens who can rip the cover off a defense deep…maybe MoP isn’t the only one that can observe this and I think Wilson’s time as a starter there is limited.

6.10/5.12 D’Andre Swift - While I do like Chicago a lot more than in recent year, Swift and his track record leaves me with a lot of questions. Here is what we did find out in Philly and they were never going to extend Swift with all the other players they have to pay, and yeah Barkley cost them some money but he’s a major upgrade. Swift will either make it for GMs or die a slow death depending on his usage in the passing game. He totaled 1,200+ and 6 TDs on a pretty talented offense in Philly. 268 touches and I do like Herbrt but he just doesn't seem to be able to establish himself as a viable option. Swift is likely to see 200+ carries if he can stay on the field, which was a bigger problem in Detroit vs last year although he missed a couple games.

I think where GMs might get the short end is with all the mouths to feed at WR and TE with Kmet who is no slouch, it’s hard to see Swift catching 50 balls. 200 carries 900 rush yds, another 35 catches for 250 and we do get to 1,150 total yds pretty quick. He’s always had about 5 rushing TDs per season but if Chicago is in the red zone more, he could have more opps to carry the football. It’s a gamble and for many he will fit an RB3 role or flex play and not much more.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

7.01/6.01 Kyle Pitts - Atlanta picked up his 5th year option so he’s there the next 2 seasons almost bar none. Kind of lost his starting spot last season to Jonnu Smith. I do think he has a chance to right the ship but I also wouldn’t expect miracles. 100 targets with a slightly better catch ratio assuming the QB play is solid, you could project 65/800/4-5TDs, he’s gone from 1 to 2 to 3 TD, 4 isn’t a huge projection. It’s possible if he really is as good as the No 4 overall pick, he might improve with decent QB play. This is why you might want to grab a TE just a bit earlier if you like them a lot better. 7th Tight End off the board but there are some interesting picks ahead.

7.02/6.02 David Montgomery - I think this is a good spot for an RB3 that is likely to see a lot of action and do well in this offense. Detroit is not going to load up on either RB for 300+ carries, no reason to even if they do start leaning 55/45 in favor of Gibbs, Monty is still likely to see around 250 touches, 1.100+ total yds, 8-10 TDs, he is a solid pick. Either RB misses time and the value of the other rises even further, for Gibbs there isn’t a lot further to go at the end of the 1st Round but Monty can exceed this draft spot.

7.03/6.03 Tee Higgins - I don’t view 2023 as his normal output, he missed some games. He’s on a 5th year option and then might be a free agent. 75/1000/6 TD if he can take the field for a full 15+ games, great gamble down around here. Perfect type of WR3 on any roster, wouldn’t blink taking him here.

7.04/6.04 Tank Dell - I don’t like Dell as a 3rd WR in the pecking order and we’re at WR29 off the board, something has to give. I like Dell but he’s quite small in comparison to Nico and even Diggs. 760/7 TD as a rookie over 10-11 games. I do think he could be one of the most explosive WR3 on any NFL roster we see all season. Could be weeks where we see something like 4/100/TD but then you will see 2/40 and it will drive you nuts. I think there are better options to wheel out every week especially if this is only your 2nd or 3rd WR off the board. Things can change, maybe one of the others gets the injury bug, that would change things a lot. Dell is frail compared to most, yes he’s all muscle but he’s 5-10/165 and that’s pretty slim, the Texans would be wise to limit his touches and design plays that will unleash him in space, that’s where he’s deadly. If he hits 750/7 again with less targets I’ll be impressed. He was on pace for well over 100, I think that will be peeled back a little. It’s hard to imagine three different 1,000 yd receivers and I can only remember a few Run n Shoot type offenses like the Houston Oilers that could pull that off.

7.05/6.05 Rhamondre Stevenson - Never a TD machine, add in a limited offense right now, he’ll be lucky to scrape 900-1,000 total yds and he’s never been able to get much higher than 4-5-6 TDs, loved his ‘22 campaign, not interested in what he offers for ‘24, pretty much a pass here.

7.06/6.06 Zamir White - Not in love with the offense but he looked good in limited touches last season. Not a lot behind him after Mattison and he had his chance last year in Minnesota, don’t see him as a threat. What if White musters 1,000 total yds and maybe 4-5 TDs, does that excite you? If you look at his usage in the last 4 weeks of the season in ‘23 and the same HC was retained, a slight upgrade at QB, you got a fading star at WR but still capable and a hot rookie TE plus some decent Receivers after Adams, White could surprise some folks. What are you risking Mid-6th/7th at RB, for sure you would have an upside guy in the RB 2 platoon but he might be able to clear the field of anyone else on your roster to seize a starting RB spot.

17/69/TD 3/16, 22/145, 20/70 plus 5/35 and finally 22/112, this guy seems to be able to handle a full load. He’s not a small RB at 6-0/215+

Diamond in the Rough here

7.07/6.07 Evan Engram - Too many targets and not enough production, we’ll get to who is taking these targets or maybe we won’t by Pick 100 so I’ll tell you I am super impressed with Brian Thomas the 1st round pick, no matter what you thought coming out of college, they have a plan for him and he will be a surprise rookie for many this year. Kirk went down and they threw way too many passes to Engram, very little for 114 catches, didn’t even clear 1,000 yds. I wouldn’t plan on a repeat in ‘24.

7.08/6.08 Dak Prescott - 4,500 and 36-37 TDs in 2 of the last 3 seasons, in ‘22 he missed 5 full games, he seems to be a rock star in FF and he usually runs a couple in. Apparently he doesn’t have much to work with at the skill positions outside of Lamb who is holding out and rightfully so right now. The market has been set, he should be paid more than anyone else who has signed recently, it shouldn't be hard to find the right number. Maybe Dallas wants to move on from Dak and Lamb but when you’re worth $10 Billion+ what’s the hurry, right Jerry?

7.09/6.09 Jordan Love - Almost 4,200 yds and 32 TDs in his 3rd season, I’ll take the under for 2024. Everyone seems to think he is destined for a Super Bowl and I saw him get close to an NFCC in San Fran during the Playoffs last year. I will have to see all this again, not sure exactly why I am skeptical and he’s not costing an arm and a leg at this spot in the Draft, most have already taken at least 2-3 RB and 2-3 WRs, you’re either thinking TE or QB and perhaps a Flex spot, QB9 but I can almost assure you many weeks there will be several QBs well ahead of him and there are still some great WR and RB plus TE still on the board.

7.10/6.10 Kyler Murray - Another QB off the board, another QB I am not that interested in. I’m not a huge fan of Murray in general, he does buck the trend physically of most QBs, the guy who believed in him more than anyone was fired as head coach and we haven’t seen him work with the current one for an entire off season, training camp and thru Week 1, they both were learning about each other on the fly last season as Murray worked his way back. Rookie WR1, hyped TE, decent RB tandem if you believe in the rookie to go with Conner, he averages around 225 yds passing and 1-2 TDs per game, he had 819 rush yds and 11 rush TDs in 2020, he hasn’t come close to that since, he’s diminutive by NFL QB standards standing at 5-10 with lifts in his shoes if you ask me. I think his ceiling is a bit lower than some want to believe.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

8.01/6.11 Najee Harris - We move into the 8th round for some leagues, Harris is better than his stats would tell you, feels like he suffers from a below avg OL of late, that might not change much in ‘24 and especially early in the season, add in below avg QB play as being projected, this might not be the steal you think it is. Since his rookie season, his touches have come down, entering Year 4 of his 1st round rookie deal, Steelers declined the option. So unless he gets franchise tagged, he’s likely going bye bye after ‘24. Things can change but he surely wants to try as hard as he can to earn his next paycheck. Warren was nursing an injury last we heard, not sure what the extent of it is.

8.02/6.12 Keenan Allen 4th on the active list for most receptions at 900+, sits 26th all time and has a chance if he does what he typically does to move up into the Top 15 past guys like Randy Moss. Just 78 catches away and he’s done at least that number in 6 of his last 7 seasons. This WR is typically in the range of 100/1,200+/6TDs, he’s not a TD magnet by any means but he is the epitome of a PPR machine and while he has a rookie QB and direct competition for targets, he fits a certain set of routes that are vital for any QB, Allen will find his groove in this offense, he might just be a future Hall of Fame WR and even at 32 he’s still got plenty left. I don’t think he will make DJ Moore irrelevant at all but I do think it will put a damper on Odunze having a huge rookie season. Allen does a lot of work in the slot and that also will cut into Kmet’s targets.

8.03/7.01 Christian Kirk - Kirk was going a little higher earlier in the summer, it looks like some savvy GMs are already catching wind of Brian Thomas and taking notes of some of the new additions on offense. I still think Kirk will have a nice season. 120 targets - 80/1,050/5 TD, maybe a couple more scores, something close to his 1st season with Jacksonville, he’s a top 5 slot WR and his job only gets easier with guys stretching the defense on the outside like the incoming rookie Thomas. We’re likely talking WR3/Flex play here, decent value for where he is going in the drafts, if Thomas explodes as a rookie and draw coverage away from Kirk and he stays healthy all 17 games, he could have a career season, we still may not have seen him at his best in a truly explosive offense, although we may not be there yet with the Jags. He a solid PPR contributor and that’s not likely to change this season.

8.04/7.02 Raheem Mostert - Why pay top dollar for Achane when the guy that had 21 TDs last year awaits you this late in the Draft? Just take him and the rookie Jaylen Wright, same idea as with Achane since no single RB can actually carry the full load in Miami. Some will say just take Wright later but if Achane or Mostert or both stay upright for most of the season then Wright’s value is less and less. Mostert has been an anomaly the last 2 seasons in Miami and if he does what he did the last 2 then he is due for about 180-200 carries, especially in the crunch time moments. He’s not as big a threat to catch the ball as Achane and that could work against him at some point. You could do a lot worse than Mostert as an RB3 but I will say he is difficult to gauge week to week whether you want to play him or not. That’s only going to get more complicated with not 1 but 2 young fresh RBs with explosive speed coming up behind him on the depth charts.

8.05/7.03 Calvin Ridley - Hopkins is injured already, Ridley didn’t nail it in Jacksonville but he had a handful of decent if not big games. Ridley also will turn 30 this season. 76/1,000/8TDs but just a 55% completion rate, somewhat low for a wide receiver. 60-67-62-58-55…his catch % has come down every season he has suited up, he missed all of ‘22 because he gambled on football. At this point in the draft what do you have to lose taking a chance on a guy that did OK last year and might not be better than 1,000/8TD but try and find that around here. At least Ridley has a resume and if he’s your WR3 or a possible flex you want to roll out there, it’s not a terrible idea. I’m just not a big fan of his and he has many duds last season but when he hits, you can feel it on your roster. Pretty good game - Dud - Dud - Pretty solid game - Good Game -Dud - Dud…he’s up and down but we aren’t talking about your WR1 when discussing Ridley. I like Levis but think the Titans will not be a great team, garbage time could be Ridley time if the Price is Right and it looks like we might be there.

8.06/7.04 Terry McLaurin - And then you have a guy like this at the next pick. With Dotson being traded, I see McLaurin going up in value. He’s a steal here and pretty much always was. Many haven’t seen Daniels or know much about him yet but it won’t take long to see these two have a good connection already. ™ has been the 75/1000/4-5 TD guy, his numbers will rise this year and I still believe he’s more of a possession type vs ripping the cover off a defense but he’s gonna see a plethora of targets, as long as he can maintain his health he’s gonna be a Top 20 type WR that sneaks up on people. He’s been very consistent with very little consistent at QB, McLaurin is set up for a possible career year. Let’s just say after you made $1 on the Big Wheel, you were able to hit one of the 2 green squares for $5,000. He might not be a home run but he’s going to help get you over the finish line. Would not blink taking him.

8.07/7.05 Chris Godwin - He’s just not been the same since the injury. You add in a QB that likely is not capable of supporting 2 frontline WRs the same way Brady did and his TDs have dropped thru the floor in the last couple seasons. 98-104 dropped to 83 last year and still scraped 1,000+ yds for the 4th time in his career. 140 and 130 targets the last 2 years, he is a a big part of the game plan typically.

8.08/7.06 Rashee Rice - Again i think as we get a little closer and there isn’t a suspension by either the Chiefs or the NFL then you have to assume he plays all 17 games and improves on his rookie season. 79-938-7TD, why can’t he approach 85-100 this year, go well over 1,000 yds and hit 6-7 TD again if not more? I like the rookie Worthy but he isn’t the same WR as Rice who is already a year ahead and well schooled on the playbook by now. I like many of the players going in this range, this another WR if you waited that can help right the ship in those 2nd and 3rd WR slots you must fill most weeks.

8.09/7.07 Tony Pollard - 250 touches including a lot more catches than you want to acknowledge. 55 and 67 targets last 2 seasons, the titans have some issues already at WR, lot is expected from them within the organization and fan base despite many of us being skeptical right now. I know Pollard will not be a workhorse with Spears flashing some talent and skills as a rookie but they brought Pollard in for a reason and paid him well. I still see him getting about 180-200+ carries and a lot of catches as Levis is scrambling behind the OL and looking to dump it off. Pollard as RB3 all day long, there are some veteran RBs that changed teams, many of them cost a lot more up top, this is one that doesn’t require a huge investment and you might get a surprise on the return. Also makes a good piece of the RB2 platoon, again let me know how that goes, never quite works out for me.

8.10/7.08 David Njoku - 7 seasons in the NFL and he just hit a career high with 80/882/6TD but if that is his career best in Year 7, you might assume it’s not the norm. I’ve always questioned why he hasn't had more success, I watched a lot of him at the University of Miami and while at one time it was Running Back “U” it also has produced a number of Tight Ends in the NFL. He also saw 123 targets last year, lets lower that down to like 95-100 maybe. That might give you a bette projection for Njoku but you do wonder with Watson now going out every week at QB, why can’t Njoku have another 75-80 catch season, whatever the yds and TDs?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

9.01/7.09 Jayden Reed - We haven’t discussed the Green Bay Wide Receivers and that is why they are coming up much later in drafts despite being on what is perceived as a good offense, none of the WRs seem to stand out as the go to guy. 90 targets as a rookie, 64/793/8TD, he was pretty efficient. Not the biggest target for red zone throws but he showed he has talent and can be one of the top 2 Wideouts for Green Bay. Reed is the slot guy so I wouldn’t over project his numbers. If he gets 100+ targets he should be a pretty strong pick around here. I also like the upside of Watson and his ability to stretch the defenses but Reed seems more of a sure thing week to week getting his targets. Look for a jump in targets, maybe a slight drop in TDs, not every WR catches 8-10 TDs, in fact many don’t.

9.02/7.10 Jake Ferguson - I wish I could be concerned about Luke Schoonmaker that Dallas took in the 2nd round last year but I’m not. As long as Ferguson stays healthy he stands a good chance to catch a lot of footballs for Dallas, maybe a lot more than some folks think. 102 targets could jump up to around 120+ with little at WR past Lamb and maybe Brandin Cooks but there are a lot of targets to go around for Ferguson. 760/5TD last season, he could easily see something like 900/6 this year, that makes him a terrific deal as the 10th TE off the board and likely puts you in potential Top 5 range.

9.03/7.11 Jaylen Warren - Nursing an injury currently. Not likely to see 60+ catches again this year but does seem to find more yds on the ground behind the same subpar OL that Harris works with. He’s going to touch the ball about 200+ times but he’s not a bellcow type. He’s not someone I am trying to put on my roster

9.04/7.12 Jonathon Brooks - Last I heard he was coming off an ACL injury, I like him better for the 2nd Half of the season but the entire Carolina offense scares me right now. I don’t think much of Bryce young right now and the entire franchise has been going down the drain of late. If you have a lot of patience and a stacked RB stable up top, this might be a worthwhile investment for later in the season.

9.05/8.01 Austin Ekeler - I thought for sure I found something here but after watching the team play the first couple preseason games, it sure looks like Brian Robinson will be the lead back and Ekeler will see more play on 3rd down and passing situations. 160-650-3TD and 60/450/4TD and you get a total of 1,100 yds/7TD and 60 catches. You can toggle the projections however you want, I went with about 9-10 carries a game at a little over 4 yds, there is room for more especially if Robinson were to miss some time but it’s clear they plan on running the ball with Brian Robinson so don’t have any illusions like I did initially. If he exceeds the numbers I am projecting, more power to you and this pick takes on a different tone in the middle of the 9th round for some of you. This was a Top 3-5 pick a couple seasons ago, different team but an upstart rookie that looks good so far in the preseason, hoping that carries over to the regular season.

9.06/8.02 Javonte WIlliams - The whole Denver offense is being hyped lately as looking better on Bo Nix, a lot of it is what I call TV pundit types that have to fill air time and every team minus a handful all look like they could win the Super Bowl right now in their minds. I loved him coming out of college, got frustrated with how he was used and then he was injured in the 2nd season and he looked pretty average or below last season. And yet we don’t see anyone really pushing him out of the starting spot right now, I don’t see him getting much of a 2nd contract from Denver and it won’t surprise me if Denver either makes a trade for a decent RB that can either push WIlliams or take his spot. There are some names including 5th round rookie on the roster but thus far nothing looks very substantial behind him.

9.07/8.03 Diontae Johnson - ‘20-’21-’22 lot of targets and just OK production, suffered from an aging Big Ben and transitioned into Kenny Pickett and we all know how that went. Last season he missed roughly 6 full games. I am not a fan of Carolina right now and the less Panthers I have on my team the better off I’m likely gonna be to start the season. And once you draft them, you might be stuck with them as not too many GMs want to load up on Carolina Panthers, even as bye week fillers they might be questionable.

9.08/8.04 Nick Chubb - Coming off a major injury, they say he looks OK or is ready to resume football. I have my doubts that he looks anything like what we saw prior, at least for this season. I would rather let someone else take the risk but at this point in the draft, his risk level does go down some as a possible RB3

9.09/8.05 Zack Moss - Whoever can pass block for Burrow is likely to be the lead RB in Cincinnati, 1st time they whiff and Burrow is strip sacked they’re gonna be riding the bench. I think Moss has the best chance to win the job for ‘24.

200 carries, 850 on the ground, more catches than he has ever seen with Burrow at QB, easily should clear 40-300 and that puts us close to about 1,200 total yds and I’ll say 6-8 TDs total in this offense, not horrific as the RB32 off the board, he could have a career year this season. It’s also possible the bengals bring in another RB late when cuts happen so keep an eye out but so far it looks like Moss has the inside track.

9.10/8.06 Brock Purdy - QB11 off the board, most teams already have a QB so it’s hard to fault anyone that starts grabbing them around here and it does come down to preference. I just can’t get over some of the names still on the board.

 

[Chaka]

This thread isn't about what I thought it was going to be about.

I like yours better.

Incredible work, man. Looks like I have some reading to do.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This thread isn't about what I thought it was going to be about.

I like yours better.

Incredible work, man. Looks like I have some reading to do.

 

[jabarony]

Name something people like to bite.

 

[Chaka]

1.02/1.03 CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill - They are very close and depending on your Redraft League, either of these seem to be acceptable fits if you are picking 2nd or 3rd. Personally, I don’t care for CDL at the moment, this contract holdout is wearing thin, it starts to get into conditioning for Weeks 1-2-3…sure he can be extended right before the start of the season but there is no way to simulate training camp, I’ve heard this directly from former players and so the risk factor of Lamb getting injured early in the season could be higher than normal. Same thing happens to pitchers who have to wait for a contract until the season starts, Blake Snell should have had an entire spring training but didn’t and ended up getting injured early in the MLB season.

At the same time, Hill is 30 years old and missed a few games last year at a very crucial point in the season. I don’t fault anyone for taking him at No 2 and ahead of a few others in this tier. I don’t fault those who grab CDL but I will point out that Lamb is not surrounded by a lot of talent and defenses will find it easier to key in on him with no big threat at RB…unless Rico seizes the moment but I don’t see enough at RB right now to scare anyone so all the focus will be Lamb and disrupting the timing.

For me both of these guys feel like I'm chasing ceilings. I hate CeeDee's holdout and agree it makes him vulnerable to lots of issues, for me it's a slow start more than injury concern. If it takes him 3-4 weeks to hit his form his managers could be in an 0-3 hole. We're not talking about your 6th round draft pick, this is the guy your franchise is named after (CeeDeez...you get the idea). Throw in a regression for the Cowboys who got worse this season and I don't love the RoI on CeeDee.

For Tyreek my concerns are more centered around injury but not just for him, also for Tua who weighs, what 190 soaking wet? Did he put all the weight back on because he looked teeny-tiny coming into TC? I don't care how good Tyreek is, Mike White & Skylar Thompson will spell a very disappointing outcome for him.

I would definitely take Tyreek over CeeDee ATM, I guess if Lamb signs today maybe I move him over Tyreek but I think both of these guys are closer to my WR3/4 than 1/2 and CeeDee is still dropping.

 

[FarFromHome]

Wow. Wonderful post man. Great read. Hard to post something like this for the Internet jackals to see and critique. At first glance.

I know it's not the norm but I just can't pull the trigger on Puka so high. With a lot of money on the line I just couldn't do it.

Love the Kincaid love. He is my top flag plant.

Posted my thoughts in his thread. I think people about to be upset about Drake London this year. People are expecting him to be this big alpha. I don't see it

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Pip's Invitation
Very humbling, thank you bud

 

[Pip's Invitation]

@Pip's Invitation
Very humbling, thank you bud

No problem. I hope your friend is doing ok. I understand the need to throw yourself into a project like this in a time of personal stress. The 200-song Neil Young countdown that I did in the FFA was what I threw myself into in 2020 when we were in the early months of pandemic/lockdown and I had just lost my father (not from COVID).

As I said in the Dotson thread, that trade will have little impact on Smith and Brown. The deal was made because the team had a gaping hole at slot WR (Paris Campbell would have had that role and he’s never healthy) and Dotson seems to do better there than outside. The impact on Brown and Smith in terms of PT/snaps is zero. The impact on them in terms of targets is minimal.

 

[Scoresman]

Nice work. Only guys I dont agree with are Chase and JJ.

Chase. Couple things I dont like. Cincy's chronic problem of starting seasons rusty. I dont want my first round pick putting up duds the first few weeks. His contract situation isnt helping. That said, you need to take him at some point in the first round. I just hope he doesnt fall to me.

JJ. I take him a bit earlier than you. I'm not worried about the QB situation. If Darnold stinks, we know JJ put up numbers even with Mullens.

I also probably take AJB over Saquon.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nice work. Only guys I dont agree with are Chase and JJ.

Chase. Couple things I dont like. Cincy's chronic problem of starting seasons rusty. I dont want my first round pick putting up duds the first few weeks. His contract situation isnt helping. That said, you need to take him at some point in the first round. I just hope he doesnt fall to me.

JJ. I take him a bit earlier than you. I'm not worried about the QB situation. If Darnold stinks, we know JJ put up numbers even with Mullens.

I also probably take AJB over Saquon.

You do know those aren't my rankings?
I'm just ripping thru what the current ADP is and shooting from the hip

I would never take them off the board in the order they're listed

 

[Scoresman]

Nice work. Only guys I dont agree with are Chase and JJ.

Chase. Couple things I dont like. Cincy's chronic problem of starting seasons rusty. I dont want my first round pick putting up duds the first few weeks. His contract situation isnt helping. That said, you need to take him at some point in the first round. I just hope he doesnt fall to me.

JJ. I take him a bit earlier than you. I'm not worried about the QB situation. If Darnold stinks, we know JJ put up numbers even with Mullens.

I also probably take AJB over Saquon.

You do know those aren't my rankings?
I'm just ripping thru what the current ADP is and shooting from the hip

I would never take them off the board in the order they're listed

Gotcha. I see now. I should've figured after seeing Henry so low.

 

[jabarony]

1.02/1.03 CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill - They are very close and depending on your Redraft League, either of these seem to be acceptable fits if you are picking 2nd or 3rd. Personally, I don’t care for CDL at the moment, this contract holdout is wearing thin, it starts to get into conditioning for Weeks 1-2-3…sure he can be extended right before the start of the season but there is no way to simulate training camp, I’ve heard this directly from former players and so the risk factor of Lamb getting injured early in the season could be higher than normal. Same thing happens to pitchers who have to wait for a contract until the season starts, Blake Snell should have had an entire spring training but didn’t and ended up getting injured early in the MLB season.

At the same time, Hill is 30 years old and missed a few games last year at a very crucial point in the season. I don’t fault anyone for taking him at No 2 and ahead of a few others in this tier. I don’t fault those who grab CDL but I will point out that Lamb is not surrounded by a lot of talent and defenses will find it easier to key in on him with no big threat at RB…unless Rico seizes the moment but I don’t see enough at RB right now to scare anyone so all the focus will be Lamb and disrupting the timing.

For me both of these guys feel like I'm chasing ceilings. I hate CeeDee's holdout and agree it makes him vulnerable to lots of issues, for me it's a slow start more than injury concern. If it takes him 3-4 weeks to hit his form his managers could be in an 0-3 hole. We're not talking about your 6th round draft pick, this is the guy your franchise is named after (CeeDeez...you get the idea). Throw in a regression for the Cowboys who got worse this season and I don't love the RoI on CeeDee.

For Tyreek my concerns are more centered around injury but not just for him, also for Tua who weighs, what 190 soaking wet? Did he put all the weight back on because he looked teeny-tiny coming into TC? I don't care how good Tyreek is, Mike White & Skylar Thompson will spell a very disappointing outcome for him.

I would definitely take Tyreek over CeeDee ATM, I guess if Lamb signs today maybe I move him over Tyreek but I think both of these guys are closer to my WR3/4 than 1/2 and CeeDee is still dropping.

Regarding Tyreek, I would say he leans towards the QB-doesn't-matter side of the spectrum. While other top WRs may lean towards needs-a-decent-QB end.

Plus, I think Skylar can sustain him to 80% peak Tyreek in case Tua goes down. This viewpoint also has a lot to do with their coaching & scheme.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Nice work. Only guys I dont agree with are Chase and JJ.

Chase. Couple things I dont like. Cincy's chronic problem of starting seasons rusty. I dont want my first round pick putting up duds the first few weeks. His contract situation isnt helping. That said, you need to take him at some point in the first round. I just hope he doesnt fall to me.

JJ. I take him a bit earlier than you. I'm not worried about the QB situation. If Darnold stinks, we know JJ put up numbers even with Mullens.

I took JJ over Chase in my money redraft because last year indicated to me that JJ is pretty much QB-proof and Chase isn't.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

JJ. I take him a bit earlier than you. I'm not worried about the QB situation. If Darnold stinks, we know JJ put up numbers even with Mullens.

Same. And I’ve seen a lot of practice footage of Darnold throwing to JJ. Dude is QB proof, and zest old is more talented than Mullins. Mullins is a train wreck and JJ produced.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I took JJ over Chase in my money redraft because last year indicated to me that JJ is pretty much QB-proof and Chase isn't.

I did the same in a high stakes draft on Wednesday.

 

[ffmail4me]

Yeah its hard to knock JJ down. It didn't matter who threw him that ball last year, he's a stud. Getting him 5 or later in the 1st is a gift IMO.

 

[Rubi]

This thread isn't about what I thought it was going to be about.

I like yours better.

Incredible work, man. Looks like I have some reading to do.

Agree. Great job Hot Sauce Guy. Best read I've had here in a long time.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This thread isn't about what I thought it was going to be about.

I like yours better.

Incredible work, man. Looks like I have some reading to do.

Agree. Great job Hot Sauce Guy. Best read I've had here in a long time.

Who?
HSG is a good dude

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Pietaster2 and @Dez
Thank you both

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Black dot. I pick 2nd tomorrow. That’s a lotta reading. I’m leaning towards breeze hall. But those wrs are tempting. Especially in ppr

 

[The Dude]

12-team at the end of the 1st, 10-11-12 spots, you can get either star from Philly and Gibbs, then you can go Aiyuk and Kupp, certain things would need to fall just right but you have a chance to come out of the 4th round stacked at whichever position you want to lean towards. I say split the picks the first 4 rounds but I also like 1RB-3WRs or “The Blade” as I like to call it at WR. Why roll out just one WR1 when you can roll out a lead or Top12 WR at ALL 3 slots?

12 team half PPR, 12 pick. I think you paint a nice picture to consider RB-RB at the turn if Wilson & Brown are gone. 2 of Gibbs-Henry-Barkley. Your thoughts?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

12-team at the end of the 1st, 10-11-12 spots, you can get either star from Philly and Gibbs, then you can go Aiyuk and Kupp, certain things would need to fall just right but you have a chance to come out of the 4th round stacked at whichever position you want to lean towards. I say split the picks the first 4 rounds but I also like 1RB-3WRs or “The Blade” as I like to call it at WR. Why roll out just one WR1 when you can roll out a lead or Top12 WR at ALL 3 slots?

12 team half PPR, 12 pick. I think you paint a nice picture to consider RB-RB at the turn if Wilson & Brown are gone. 2 of Gibbs-Henry-Barkley. Your thoughts?

You can't do much wrong going Barkley-Gibbs if you can pull it off.
The 3-4 turn will be something like Kupp-AIyuk-Pittman-Diggs-Metcalf
The RBs around there are Joe Mixon...maybe White from the Bucs, not many get taken around that area but there also isn't much to get excited about there.
I might go RB-RB on the 1-2 turn, Gibbs-Henry should be plenty if Barkley is already off the board. If AJB is there I might consider him and just 1 RB

 

[BobbyLayne]

-One of the MoP stay out of trouble and get your butt to the Playoffs rule is splitting the picks in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th at RB and WR,

One of my core tenets to winning in PPR is go heavy on WR. Last year’s championship squad:

1. WR
2. WR
3. WR
4. Hall
5. QB
6. TE
7. RB Pacheco
8. WR Addison (traded 4 Gibbs Wk 5-6)
9. RB
10. TE Kincaid (traded 4 LaPorta Wk 1-2)
11. Goff
12. RB
13. WR
14. DST
15. K
16. RB
17. WR Reed (Yahtzee!)
18. RB

YMMV

I may start WR-WR-WR-WR

QB-3 WR-2 RB-TE-WRT Flex-K-DST

 

[Ministry of Pain]

-One of the MoP stay out of trouble and get your butt to the Playoffs rule is splitting the picks in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th at RB and WR,

One of my core tenets to winning in PPR is go heavy on WR. Last year’s championship squad:

1. WR
2. WR
3. WR
4. Hall
5. QB
6. TE
7. RB Pacheco
8. WR Addison (traded 4 Gibbs Wk 5-6)
9. RB
10. TE Kincaid (traded 4 LaPorta Wk 1-2)
11. Goff
12. RB
13. WR
14. DST
15. K
16. RB
17. WR Reed (Yahtzee!)
18. RB

YMMV

I may start WR-WR-WR-WR

QB-3 WR-2 RB-TE-WRT Flex-K-DST

I understand your position on this but for many it's easier to fill their starters at RB and WR then the WR3/4 slots and so forth.
You're comfortable grabbing RBs in the 6th-7th-8th and building around them as your starters, many won't
Also I said get to the Playoffs not necessarily a title but you have to of course get there or you can't make it to the Title Round.
You shared your story, one of my leagues last year I outscored all but 1 team for most points on the season, my team also had the most pts scored against
We went 5-9 and I was bummed, thought I needed a new game plan this season but MoP Jr reminded me that we drafted just fine, ran into some buzzsaws and bad luck
It happens sometimes...and we did pretty good in several others but this one annoyed me.

I had Bijan-Gibbs-Hall and Pacheco all on one team, Flex slot allowed for three of them each week.
I had 3 of the Top 5 RBs in the 1st round of this years redraft, that's usually a recipe for success.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Generally my teams start slow. I favor 25 & under, and sometimes takes a minute for pass catching satellite RBs to shake out. Last year was 2-5, finished 9-1 - and that was not atypical.



I went QB super early then compounded it by going TE usually don’t go B2B with the onesie. Will endeavor to repeat either of those in 2024.

FWIW, those 5th/6th rounders (Burrow & ‘muth) were ****-on-a-bull worthless. Plus I like a lot of the RBs in the 4th-5th-6th.

Have the #7 spot so the big 3 RBs will be gone, hero is not an option. Likely I’ll start WR/WR but depends on who is there at 18.

Drafts are fluid; you have to be flexible. Personally I find my teams are stronger when I just focus on BPA instead of filling out my lineup, at least through 8 rounds.

I drafted 6 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs last year. A lot of years it’s 7-8/4-5/1.

I have two sheets besides what’s available in the platform. One is a ranking of ~ 583 players; the other is a two-sided tier chart, one side for overall & the other by position. With 5-6 picks before mine I start queuing 4-5 BPAs and see who comes off.

Then when it’s my turn I confirm by looking at the tier sheets one more time, and the platform rankings by position (my personal ranks are uploaded.)

Then I hit submit, and let out a long primal scream. Without muting the Zoom session, natch.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let's talk Sleepers because there are plenty of names I like well after all these folks come off the boards.

I'll start with Quarterbacks and make this as easy as I can
QB - After Purdy comes off the board in about Round 8 you don't see a QB taken on average until
ADP 104 Jayden Daniels
ADP 105 Caleb Williams

On the surface there is not much wrong waiting until after the first 100 picks come off the board and then taking on some risk with a couple rookies that many of us have watched in the preseason and like what we see. Personally I think Daniels is going to be on a fast track but Caleb Williams has a lot of help surrounding him, should perform well as a rookie
Performing well as a rookie is a lot different than making a push into the Top 5-10 at QB in FF this season. And because of that I am forced to look down the board a little further and my eye balls start to pop out who sits on the boards at QB in like rounds 9-11+ depending on 10 or 12 team formats

ADP 112 Jared Goff - Detroit Lions. QB14
ADP 113 Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins QB15

-Both of them threw for over 4,500 yards and 30 TDs last season...Tua had 29 but close enough.
-Both of them have 1st round Wide Receivers, you saw them in one of the first posts up top, Hill and ARSB.
Goff has a pair of RBs that take a lot of pressure off him anytime they want to go ground and force the defenses to pinch up
Goff also has what many feel is the best Tight End in football right now after just 1 season, Sam La Porta another skill player taken 1st/2nd round for the Lions
Tua has at least a pair of RBs that are lightning fast and has other strong weapons like Jaylen Waddle he can exploit
Both QBs play for teams that are likely to win 10-11+ games, they don't fold once they fall down 10 points, Miami and Detroit very capable of coming from behind
Goff road games which is where he gets ripped a lot @ AZ in the month of September, weather won't be a factor. @ Dallas, @ Minnesota, both are in doors. @ Houston and @ Indy, looks like at least half his road games weather has no impact, plays in a Dome at home. Tua Tags has a pretty soft schedule, Miami should start the season 5-2/6-1, likely 9-3 before the schedule gets a little tougher. Road games late season vs Cleveland and the NY Jets will scare some folks. But that's why you have 2 QBs and all the weeks these 2 guys hit the Top 5-10, it will way pay off.
I am pretty sold on what CJ Stroud can and will do this year, I've still taken one of these guys in double digit rounds to back up Stroud in the late 4th/early 5th
I like teams that score points, call me nutty.

And there are other names after Tua and Goff that many will find comforting.
ADP 120 Trevor Lawrence - 16th QB off the board and has some new weapons to work with including a sensational rookie we haven't discussed ADP 117 Brian Thomas, you went to familiarize yourself with this guy because he might be one of the most explosive rookie WRs you see the first month of the season and wonder why you didn't hear more about him. Lawrence is going to ahve a much better 2024, i'll take the over on QB16

ADP 123 Justin Herbert - QB17 hard to believe he falls this far but that's what Harbaugh did tearing apart the team and offense specifically. Could be a long year for Justin Herbert
ADP 146 Matt Stafford - QB20 last I checked so he's one fo the last guys to come off the board at QB, thought the guy was never going to be able to grip and throw a football again. He should easily pass 4,000/25+ TDs with the 2 Wide Receivers he has to throw the football to. He's not young so he has no curb appeal at this point and yet I see several weeks in the season where he lands in the Top 10 so he's great value after all the QBs come off the board.

 

[wgoldsph]

So if I'm getting this right as a sum up...
The first two rounds suck except for eagles players. In fact everyone has issues except the eagles.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Statorama
Thank you!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So if I'm getting this right as a sum up...
The first two rounds suck except for eagles players. In fact everyone has issues except the eagles.

Goldie!!!

 

[travdogg]

Well, I was in the process of making a big final thread about draft rankings, and probably still will, but you've covered a ton of ground that I'll just be repeating.

Lots of in-depth analysis to digest (and some to counter argue) well worth everyone's time to read.

Great work here!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

3.08/3.04 Josh Jacobs - many times after writing this dissertation I go back and slowly read while taking the temperature of the room, social media and the Univ of Miami
What I find is this guy for the area of the Draft, he might be a mid to early 2nd round grade in actuality
I'll take the OVER on this guy, in fact I am picking 5th in a 10 team coming up this Thursday, I **** you not, he's on my radar as early as 2.06 so put that in the pipe and start puffing

We are sleeping on this guy, if the Packers offense is going to be as good as everyone seems to think and believe me I have some doubts about Love but many fans out there think he's the real deal and that would bode well for Jacobs who just like D.Adams will go about this range, suffered from poor QB play. You can almost do no wrong middle of the 1st and 2nd if you are willing to not follow the exact script according to ADP

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Well, I was in the process of making a big final thread about draft rankings, and probably still will, but you've covered a ton of ground that I'll just be repeating.

Lots of in-depth analysis to digest (and some to counter argue) well worth everyone's time to read.

Great work here!

I'm jealous of that main thread where you have all the rankings, that pushes me to try and aim high around here.
Big fan and you had an influence on several of the write ups in the opening posts.

-Brian Thomas as an example, if I can trade Kirk in for Thomas in the 6th round of my 3-man keeper league, I've seen enough. Miami better watch out Week 1
And even if he doesn't ball out at Hard Rock, I'm excited to watch his progression all year. I see big things ahead for him, explosive playmaker from what i see.

That's a guy that is high on my list of reaching a round or two ahead to make sure I get him.
And that's just 1 example, I could list many

 

[Ministry of Pain]

-One of the MoP stay out of trouble and get your butt to the Playoffs rule is splitting the picks in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th at RB and WR,

One of my core tenets to winning in PPR is go heavy on WR. Last year’s championship squad:

1. WR
2. WR
3. WR
4. Hall
5. QB
6. TE
7. RB Pacheco
8. WR Addison (traded 4 Gibbs Wk 5-6)
9. RB
10. TE Kincaid (traded 4 LaPorta Wk 1-2)
11. Goff
12. RB
13. WR
14. DST
15. K
16. RB
17. WR Reed (Yahtzee!)
18. RB

YMMV

I may start WR-WR-WR-WR

QB-3 WR-2 RB-TE-WRT Flex-K-DST

Understadnding that you made 2 incredible trades to upgrade, let's use your model with this year's ADP, more fun this way
I'll just say Middle of the 1st is the luck of the draw

10-team league
1- WR Ja'Marr Chase
2- WR DeVante Adams, I just can't take Harrison Jr at 2.06
3- RB Josh Jacobs, I guess I'm overriding but I promise to come back in the 4th with a WR, for me it's an easy pick
4- WR Cooper Kupp
5- QB CJ Stroud
6- TE George Kittle
7- Zamir White/Monty, It's possible Monty falls this far to around 75 but would also be happy to grab WHite when you see his usage down the stretch last year.
8- WR Rashee Rice/Terry McLaurin, either one is being undervalued and would be hapy to scoop up a WR4 with upside
9- RB -Zack Moss/Ekeler/BRobinson, something like that in this area

Seems like a nice start for a team to build around, might be a little short on RBs, should be rolling at WR if Adams bounces back with better QB play.
I don't like many of the WRs in the 2nd round to be perfectly honest

 

[BobbyLayne]

-One of the MoP stay out of trouble and get your butt to the Playoffs rule is splitting the picks in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th at RB and WR,

One of my core tenets to winning in PPR is go heavy on WR. Last year’s championship squad:

1. WR
2. WR
3. WR
4. Hall
5. QB
6. TE
7. RB Pacheco
8. WR Addison (traded 4 Gibbs Wk 5-6)
9. RB
10. TE Kincaid (traded 4 LaPorta Wk 1-2)
11. Goff
12. RB
13. WR
14. DST
15. K
16. RB
17. WR Reed (Yahtzee!)
18. RB

YMMV

I may start WR-WR-WR-WR

QB-3 WR-2 RB-TE-WRT Flex-K-DST

Understadnding that you made 2 incredible trades to upgrade, let's use your model with this year's ADP, more fun this way
I'll just say Middle of the 1st is the luck of the draw

10-team league
1- WR Ja'Marr Chase
2- WR DeVante Adams, I just can't take Harrison Jr at 2.06
3- RB Josh Jacobs, I guess I'm overriding but I promise to come back in the 4th with a WR, for me it's an easy pick
4- WR Cooper Kupp
5- QB CJ Stroud
6- TE George Kittle
7- Zamir White/Monty, It's possible Monty falls this far to around 75 but would also be happy to grab WHite when you see his usage down the stretch last year.
8- WR Rashee Rice/Terry McLaurin, either one is being undervalued and would be hapy to scoop up a WR4 with upside
9- RB -Zack Moss/Ekeler/BRobinson, something like that in this area

Seems like a nice start for a team to build around, might be a little short on RBs, should be rolling at WR if Adams bounces back with better QB play.
I don't like many of the WRs in the 2nd round to be perfectly honest

My plan fell apart when Breece fell to #7



No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy

BobbyLayne
1.	(7)	Breece Hall (NYJ - RB)
2.	(18)	Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ari - WR)
3.	(31)	Drake London (Atl - WR)
4.	(42)	James Cook (Buf - RB)
5.	(55)	Tank Dell (Hou - WR)
6.	(66)	Raheem Mostert (Mia - RB)
7.	(79)	Jordan Love (GB - QB)
8.	(90)	Jayden Reed (GB - WR)
9.	(103)	Brock Bowers (LV - TE)
10.	(114)	Blake Corum (LAR - RB)
11.	(127)	Jaylen Wright (Mia - RB)
12.	(138)	Curtis Samuel (Buf - WR)
13.	(151)	Matthew Stafford (LAR - QB)
14.	(162)	MarShawn Lloyd (GB - RB)
15.	(175)	Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)
16.	(186)	Isaiah Likely (Bal - TE)
17.	(199)	Evan McPherson (Cin - K)
18.	(210)	New Orleans (NO - DEF)

The 1.06 drafter didn’t snipe me once. The 1.08, about 6 rounds lol.

Feel OKish about it but kept missing on my middle and late round targets.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

-One of the MoP stay out of trouble and get your butt to the Playoffs rule is splitting the picks in the 1st-2nd-3rd-4th at RB and WR,

One of my core tenets to winning in PPR is go heavy on WR. Last year’s championship squad:

1. WR
2. WR
3. WR
4. Hall
5. QB
6. TE
7. RB Pacheco
8. WR Addison (traded 4 Gibbs Wk 5-6)
9. RB
10. TE Kincaid (traded 4 LaPorta Wk 1-2)
11. Goff
12. RB
13. WR
14. DST
15. K
16. RB
17. WR Reed (Yahtzee!)
18. RB

YMMV

I may start WR-WR-WR-WR

QB-3 WR-2 RB-TE-WRT Flex-K-DST

Understadnding that you made 2 incredible trades to upgrade, let's use your model with this year's ADP, more fun this way
I'll just say Middle of the 1st is the luck of the draw

10-team league
1- WR Ja'Marr Chase
2- WR DeVante Adams, I just can't take Harrison Jr at 2.06
3- RB Josh Jacobs, I guess I'm overriding but I promise to come back in the 4th with a WR, for me it's an easy pick
4- WR Cooper Kupp
5- QB CJ Stroud
6- TE George Kittle
7- Zamir White/Monty, It's possible Monty falls this far to around 75 but would also be happy to grab WHite when you see his usage down the stretch last year.
8- WR Rashee Rice/Terry McLaurin, either one is being undervalued and would be hapy to scoop up a WR4 with upside
9- RB -Zack Moss/Ekeler/BRobinson, something like that in this area

Seems like a nice start for a team to build around, might be a little short on RBs, should be rolling at WR if Adams bounces back with better QB play.
I don't like many of the WRs in the 2nd round to be perfectly honest

My plan fell apart when Breece fell to #7



No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy

BobbyLayne
1.	(7)	Breece Hall (NYJ - RB)
2.	(18)	Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ari - WR)
3.	(31)	Drake London (Atl - WR)
4.	(42)	James Cook (Buf - RB)
5.	(55)	Tank Dell (Hou - WR)
6.	(66)	Raheem Mostert (Mia - RB)
7.	(79)	Jordan Love (GB - QB)
8.	(90)	Jayden Reed (GB - WR)
9.	(103)	Brock Bowers (LV - TE)
10.	(114)	Blake Corum (LAR - RB)
11.	(127)	Jaylen Wright (Mia - RB)
12.	(138)	Curtis Samuel (Buf - WR)
13.	(151)	Matthew Stafford (LAR - QB)
14.	(162)	MarShawn Lloyd (GB - RB)
15.	(175)	Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)
16.	(186)	Isaiah Likely (Bal - TE)
17.	(199)	Evan McPherson (Cin - K)
18.	(210)	New Orleans (NO - DEF)

The 1.06 drafter didn’t snipe me once. The 1.08, about 6 rounds lol.

Feel OKish about it but kept missing on my middle and late round targets.

Harrison-London-Dell-Reed-Samuel...Samuel is so over looked in Buffalo, lot of youngsters assembled here
I love the Mostert-Wright combo, what if Mostert gets another 180-200 carries, I like taking either Achane or Mostert with Wright handcuff, James Cook was a nice beginning at RB
Corum is interesting in LosAng

 

[Statorama]

If you take Achane 25th overall you MUST draft Jaylen Wright as a handcuff

I never saw myself as an Achane guy, but when I got him I was thinking about this post and got Wright for a $1 at the end of the draft. Love everything I read/see about Wright, might be a nice long term keeper.

Thanks for the suggestion

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If you take Achane 25th overall you MUST draft Jaylen Wright as a handcuff

I never saw myself as an Achane guy, but when I got him I was thinking about this post and got Wright for a $1 at the end of the draft. Love everything I read/see about Wright, might be a nice long term keeper.

Thanks for the suggestion

I think either Miami RB is worth it, Achane or Mostert as long as you take Wright as the hand cuff, some folks are just taking Wright

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tua "Two Seconds" Tags
And this is mostly for @Gatorman who says I don't like Tua and that simply is not true, I just don't think he plays well against good teams, 7-14 W-L record, stats fall thru the floor at times

But here is what he said after I made this comment the other day about 2 Seconds, and that's about how much time he has in the pocket right now...
-Tua Tagovailoa on his comfort playing behind fluctuating Dolphins interior OL: "Well brother, I get the ball out fast. So I'm comfortable with whoever we got out there."

x.com

twitter.com

Cameron Wolfe posted this

Tua's ability to distribute the ball quickly combined with a minimum of 4 starting skill players that all hover around 4.3 speed or faster
And this guy is 15th QB off the board in FF, that is laughable for a guy that led the league in passing yds last season and as 1 shy of 30 Pass TDs, easily Top 5-10 numbers.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Have my first draft of the year tonight! 12 team, 0.5 PPR, full redraft. I'm picking #4.

Any last minute advice? I find myself wanting Breece more than anyone.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Have my first draft of the year tonight! 12 team, 0.5 PPR, full redraft. I'm picking #4.

Any last minute advice? I find myself wanting Breece more than anyone.

NFL Fact or Fiction: Foul Move by Tua Tagovailoa to Criticize Brian Flores

Plus, is there a dark horse candidate for Offensive Player of the Year? And what's going on with the Patriots' quarterback competition?

www.si.com

Scroll down to the Bijan section and read along, so much stuff out there to turn your head into a blender
I write a thread on Redraft traps and reading too many of these articles will mess with your head but I did like what this writer had to say about him