Redraft: Pick 1.01 (1 Viewer)

[joemayo]

Just found out recently that I have the first pick in my 12 team redraft league. So for the last few days, I've had in my mind that I would be deciding between Tomlinson and Johnson. However, I remembered that in this league you play your division opponents in weeks 1-3 and 12-14 (3 divisions of 4 teams each). Top team from each division + 1 wild card team makes the playoffs.

Given this, I'm wondering about taking Alexander at #1. Here are the schedules for these guys in those critical division weeks:

Tomlinson

@ Oakland

Tennessee

BYE

Oakland

@ Buffalo

Denver

Johnson

Cincinnati

@ Denver

BYE

Denver

@ Cleveland

Baltimore

Alexander

@ Detroit

Arizona

NYG

Green Bay

@ Denver

@ Arizona

The week 3 byes for both Tomlinson and LJ are what have me concerned. Right out of the gate, you'd be losing your best player in a game against a division opponent. And given a serpentine draft, by the time you pick again at 2.12, you're probably looking at somebody like a Warrick Dunn or Chester Taylor as your #2 RB.

In this league we also have the option of starting only 1 RB and 4 WRs, so I'm tempted by the prospect of drafting 2 WRs at the 2.12 and 3.01 turn, but that would be a lot more difficult if you knew you'd lose your #1 RB early in the season.

Or am I overthinking the impact of the schedule? For sake of argument and discussion, lets use the FBG projections of each player's points, standard scoring, etc.

 

[kupcho1]

There's nothing wrong with taking any one of those guys at #1 and your rationale for Alexander is as good as any I've heard.

 

[chris1969]

Just found out recently that I have the first pick in my 12 team redraft league. So for the last few days, I've had in my mind that I would be deciding between Tomlinson and Johnson. However, I remembered that in this league you play your division opponents in weeks 1-3 and 12-14 (3 divisions of 4 teams each). Top team from each division + 1 wild card team makes the playoffs.

Given this, I'm wondering about taking Alexander at #1. Here are the schedules for these guys in those critical division weeks:

Tomlinson

@ Oakland

Tennessee

BYE

Oakland

@ Buffalo

Denver

Johnson

Cincinnati

@ Denver

BYE

Denver

@ Cleveland

Baltimore

Alexander

@ Detroit

Arizona

NYG

Green Bay

@ Denver

@ Arizona

The week 3 byes for both Tomlinson and LJ are what have me concerned. Right out of the gate, you'd be losing your best player in a game against a division opponent. And given a serpentine draft, by the time you pick again at 2.12, you're probably looking at somebody like a Warrick Dunn or Chester Taylor as your #2 RB.

In this league we also have the option of starting only 1 RB and 4 WRs, so I'm tempted by the prospect of drafting 2 WRs at the 2.12 and 3.01 turn, but that would be a lot more difficult if you knew you'd lose your #1 RB early in the season.

Or am I overthinking the impact of the schedule? For sake of argument and discussion, lets use the FBG projections of each player's points, standard scoring, etc.

Well, I wouldn't change who I drafted, but I might look at RB's that have a great matchup in week 3 in the later rounds.

 

[joemayo]

Well, I wouldn't change who I drafted, but I might look at RB's that have a great matchup in week 3 in the later rounds.

That's a good point. And one of the players I mentioned (Dunn) fits that scenario. Atlanta is @ New Orleans week 3. Beyond him, though, I'm not sure there is a good matchup with guys that are likely to be there at the 2.12/3.01 turn or later.Given we can start 4 WRs, it would also be tempting to grab 2 WRs at that turn from a group like Owens, Moss, Harrison and Boldin. So that might favor grabbing Alexander at 1.01.