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Redraft, Redraft and more Redraft 2024 - New Rules, Player Hype and Old "Wise" Tales... (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
The former MoP would have written old wives tales but in an effort to stay ahead of current trends, we took the gender right out of that saying and replaced it with what it really means
It's a new season but there are still some MAJOR old time rules and trends that are even more important now than ever before and I am happy to facilitate some rousing debate about upcoming perceived values.

-Quick note to the numerous Dynasty heads that fill these boards, BACK OFF! :lol:
I am somewhat shocked when I read over the ADP of some of the players.
My biggest help to the boards is going to be a very simple (y) (n) on the individual player based on where they go in the Drafts at the time of the post.

-We were debating Kamara this morning and the bottom line, if he's going ADP 78 overall and he was RB8 on PPG when he was not on suspension...that's important info and should matter a helluva lot more than someone that says they couldn't sell Kamara in Dynasty all off season...that has almost no impact on redraft. Clear your head of all long term thoughts when it comes to players in the upcoming redrafts.

Want a punch between the eyes, Marvin Harrison Jr will never live up to that WR10 overall ranking and a 2nd round draft spot, gimme a break!

And I know what you're thinking, you ain't giving us no juice MoP, this is just fluff to confuse us...WRONG!!!

Rule #1 - Whoever drafts the first QB off the board will struggle to make the Playoffs all season long.
Rule #2 - If you don't get serious about being almost the last team to draft a QB, then you haven't looked closely at who is sitting around come Rounds 7 and 8
Rounds 9 and 10 are loaded as well so my 1st encouragement is to load up at WR and RB, maybe even slip in a quality TE like Dalton Kincaid after the first 2-3 TEs come off the board

If you roll around in Round 9 and have 4-5 WRs, 3-4 RBs and likely a TE, you done well
MoP has done dozens and dozens of mock drafts and I can assure you that Tua Tags sits there like a leper from the set of "Ben-Hur" from the 50s...
I'm convinced that Tua + QB2 is a recipe for success. @travdogg is a HUGE Dolphins '24 fan and if he thinks Miami is going to be part of a 1984 re-match against SF then Tua is going to be even better than he was in 2023 where he started all 17 games. I'm well aware he stunk 2nd Half of the season but he lost a lot of pieces on his way to the Freezer Bowl in KC.

This will be an on going thread and sometimes I might bump it with some thoughts as I see them unfold in the mock drafts.
I plan on going pick by pick thru the ADP provided by numerous sites. There is a total sweet spot for RBs if you wait around
It's shaping up well for the Redraft specialists, lot of value when you get past the first 3-4 rounds.
All posts and comments welcome, make sure your focus is on redraft 2024

Cheers!
 
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While I dont think Tua is a bad pick at ADP, you need to strategize on your #2 QB. Tua isnt startable in bad weather games. Tua is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 in temperatures under 40 degrees. I dont like that going into winter months when the playoff hunt is heating up.

He's also 10-15 pounds lighter this year. Not sure how that might affect his durability and his O-line still stinks.

Honestly, with so many options in his tier, I'll probably look elsewhere.
 
While I dont think Tua is a bad pick at ADP, you need to strategize on your #2 QB. Tua isnt startable in bad weather games. Tua is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 in temperatures under 40 degrees. I dont like that going into winter months when the playoff hunt is heating up.

He's also 10-15 pounds lighter this year. Not sure how that might affect his durability and his O-line still stinks.

Honestly, with so many options in his tier, I'll probably look elsewhere.
Let's walk thru it together, great post btw....

JAX
BUF
@Sea...Sept day game, weather should not be the overriding factor IMHO
TEN
@ Pats...Oct 6th, doubt a blizzard rolls thru
@ Indy...DOME

AZ
@ Bills...early Nov, should not be a white out
@ LA Rams...I lived in LA for several years, doubt mid Nov there is much to worry about here
LVR
NEP

@ GB on Thanksgiving could be an issue
NYJ
@ Hou...TEXAS in Nov/Dec should not be an issue
SF

Week 17 and 18, likely the Bowl Game or Final for most redrafts...
@ Cle and @ NYJ, those are the absolute worst possible weather games for Tua and they are at the very end so I would think Tua is a very safe play most weeks of the season.

Tua/Staff or Tua/Goff has been one of my best combos at QB after waiting and waiting
 
While I dont think Tua is a bad pick at ADP, you need to strategize on your #2 QB. Tua isnt startable in bad weather games. Tua is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 in temperatures under 40 degrees. I dont like that going into winter months when the playoff hunt is heating up.

He's also 10-15 pounds lighter this year. Not sure how that might affect his durability and his O-line still stinks.

Honestly, with so many options in his tier, I'll probably look elsewhere.
Let's walk thru it together, great post btw....

JAX
BUF
@Sea...Sept day game, weather should not be the overriding factor IMHO
TEN
@ Pats...Oct 6th, doubt a blizzard rolls thru
@ Indy...DOME

AZ
@ Bills...early Nov, should not be a white out
@ LA Rams...I lived in LA for several years, doubt mid Nov there is much to worry about here
LVR
NEP

@ GB on Thanksgiving could be an issue
NYJ
@ Hou...TEXAS in Nov/Dec should not be an issue
SF

Week 17 and 18, likely the Bowl Game or Final for most redrafts...
@ Cle and @ NYJ, those are the absolute worst possible weather games for Tua and they are at the very end so I would think Tua is a very safe play most weeks of the season.

Tua/Staff or Tua/Goff has been one of my best combos at QB after waiting and waiting

As a QB2 sure. But I dont want my QB1 to be unstartable in the fantasy playoffs or the weeks leading up to them.

Your Tua/Goff pair is great, but Goff has an earlier ADP than Tua so he'd technically be your QB1.

I do agree that Tua's upside is through the roof and I would be thrilled with him as my QB2.
 
I will say that everything about Tua (including going round 10+) also applies to my other favorite wait on QB target, Brock Purdy. Purdy does go about a round earlier than Tua, but its not too hard to pair them up say round 9 and 10, and often even 10 and 11.
 
While I dont think Tua is a bad pick at ADP, you need to strategize on your #2 QB. Tua isnt startable in bad weather games. Tua is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 in temperatures under 40 degrees. I dont like that going into winter months when the playoff hunt is heating up.

He's also 10-15 pounds lighter this year. Not sure how that might affect his durability and his O-line still stinks.

Honestly, with so many options in his tier, I'll probably look elsewhere.
Let's walk thru it together, great post btw....

JAX
BUF
@Sea...Sept day game, weather should not be the overriding factor IMHO
TEN
@ Pats...Oct 6th, doubt a blizzard rolls thru
@ Indy...DOME

AZ
@ Bills...early Nov, should not be a white out
@ LA Rams...I lived in LA for several years, doubt mid Nov there is much to worry about here
LVR
NEP

@ GB on Thanksgiving could be an issue
NYJ
@ Hou...TEXAS in Nov/Dec should not be an issue
SF

Week 17 and 18, likely the Bowl Game or Final for most redrafts...
@ Cle and @ NYJ, those are the absolute worst possible weather games for Tua and they are at the very end so I would think Tua is a very safe play most weeks of the season.

Tua/Staff or Tua/Goff has been one of my best combos at QB after waiting and waiting

As a QB2 sure. But I dont want my QB1 to be unstartable in the fantasy playoffs or the weeks leading up to them.

Your Tua/Goff pair is great, but Goff has an earlier ADP than Tua so he'd technically be your QB1.

I do agree that Tua's upside is through the roof and I would be thrilled with him as my QB2.
Say what now?
Tua threw for more yards than any other QB in the NFL last year as painful as that is for me to post.
The Dolphins have speed and weapons in spades at the skill positions and got even stronger thru the draft and the signing of OBJ now on the team.
Tua Tags as a QB2?

We can agree to disagree, I've always enjoyed your posts and there's no beef/issue here, we just see Tua and Dolphins' passing game a little different this season
You add in a rather soft schedule, the entire Miami Dolphins offense might be underrated
Food for thought, it's still June
 
While I dont think Tua is a bad pick at ADP, you need to strategize on your #2 QB. Tua isnt startable in bad weather games. Tua is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 in temperatures under 40 degrees. I dont like that going into winter months when the playoff hunt is heating up.

He's also 10-15 pounds lighter this year. Not sure how that might affect his durability and his O-line still stinks.

Honestly, with so many options in his tier, I'll probably look elsewhere.
Let's walk thru it together, great post btw....

JAX
BUF
@Sea...Sept day game, weather should not be the overriding factor IMHO
TEN
@ Pats...Oct 6th, doubt a blizzard rolls thru
@ Indy...DOME

AZ
@ Bills...early Nov, should not be a white out
@ LA Rams...I lived in LA for several years, doubt mid Nov there is much to worry about here
LVR
NEP

@ GB on Thanksgiving could be an issue
NYJ
@ Hou...TEXAS in Nov/Dec should not be an issue
SF

Week 17 and 18, likely the Bowl Game or Final for most redrafts...
@ Cle and @ NYJ, those are the absolute worst possible weather games for Tua and they are at the very end so I would think Tua is a very safe play most weeks of the season.

Tua/Staff or Tua/Goff has been one of my best combos at QB after waiting and waiting

As a QB2 sure. But I dont want my QB1 to be unstartable in the fantasy playoffs or the weeks leading up to them.

Your Tua/Goff pair is great, but Goff has an earlier ADP than Tua so he'd technically be your QB1.

I do agree that Tua's upside is through the roof and I would be thrilled with him as my QB2.
Say what now?
Tua threw for more yards than any other QB in the NFL last year as painful as that is for me to post.
The Dolphins have speed and weapons in spades at the skill positions and got even stronger thru the draft and the signing of OBJ now on the team.
Tua Tags as a QB2?

We can agree to disagree, I've always enjoyed your posts and there's no beef/issue here, we just see Tua and Dolphins' passing game a little different this season
You add in a rather soft schedule, the entire Miami Dolphins offense might be underrated
Food for thought, it's still June

What pushes him to QB2 for me is his inconsistency and bad play in bad weather which just happens to coincide with fantasy playoffs. Thats not what I want in a QB1. It pushes him to being part of a QB by committee, which is fine. So QB1A/1B maybe instead of a true QB2. He will have weeks where he will win you your matchup.
 
What pushes him to QB2 for me is his inconsistency and bad play in bad weather which just happens to coincide with fantasy playoffs
It's not just bad weather, he's just inconsistent.

Without checking weather reports here is where he finished each week:

1
27
3
17
14
4
23
7
17
9
22
10
22
22*
21*
16*

The * gets me to the second reason I'm not so high on him. Just my opinion here but he's made by the system and the top two WR's. I'm not saying anything novel when I say he's like a PG, highly accurate and quick in his decision making and when he's got Waddle and Tyreek both available and healthy that works out great with them and the entirety of the system.

That's what those * denotes. Those last 3 weeks he was without Tyreek one game, without Waddle another, and the game he finished 21st he was without Waddle for a half while Tyreek was returning from missing a game.

Good weapons help all QB's, but I dont' think any QB in the league is more reliant on his top two WR's then Tua and that's an extra layer of concern past the inconsistenty as you need 3 players to stay healthy or his decline seems impactful.

Due to the inconsistency he's solid Best Ball QB2, a high end one. I'm not messing with him in non BB leagues where I need to draft him.
 
Current Underdog draft rank by position (not going to do overall ADP because it's very WR skewed and will spark a different debate):

Running Backs:
1. CMC
tier break
2. Bijan
3. Breece
tier break
4. Gibbs
5. Taylor
6. Barkley
7. Achane
tier break
8. Kyren
9. Henry
tier break
10. Etienne
11. Pacheco
12. Jacobs
13. Cook
tier break
14. White
15. Mixon
16. Walker
tier break
17. Kamara
18. Montgomery
19. Aaron Jones
20. Najee
21. Rhamondre
22. Brooks
23. Zamir
24. Swift
25. Warren
26. Moss
mini tier break
27. Conner
28. Mostert
29. Pollard
30. Benson
mini tier break
31. Javonte
32. Singletary
33. Robinson
34. Spears
35. Edwards
36. Corum
37. Brown
mini tier break
38. Ekeler
39. Zeke
40. Ford
mini tier break
41. Charbonnet
42. Kendre
43. Chubb
44. Dowdle
45. Lloyd
46. Chandler
mini tier break
47. Jaylen Wright
48. Allgeier
49. McLaughlin
50. Ray Davis
51. Vidal
52. Gibson
mini tier break
53. Hubbard
54. Irving
55. Herbert
56. Dobbins
57. Braelon
57. Eli Mitchell
59. Tyrone Tracy
60. Roschon
61. Pierce
62. CEH
63. Foreman
64. Bigsby
65. Keaton Mitchell
66. Mattison
67. Estime
68. Shipley
 
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Tight Ends:

1. Laporta
2. Kelce
tier break
3. McBride
4. Andrews
5. Kincaid
tier break
6. Pitts
7. Kittle
tier break
8. Engram
9. Furgeson
tier break
10. Bowers
11. Njoku
tier break
12. Godert
tier break
13. Schultz
14. Friermuth
tier break
15. Hockensen
16. Kmet
17. Musgrave
tier break
18. Henry
19. Sinott
20. Otton
21. Conklin
tier break
22. Likely
23. Fant
24. Chig
25. Jonnu
tier break
26. Juwan
27. Woods
28. Gesicki
29. Sanders
30. Knox
31. Parkinson
32. Kraft
33. Theo Johnson
 
Quarterbacks:

1. Allen
2. Hurts
mini tier break
3. Lamar
4. Mahomes
tier break
5. Richardson
6. Stroud
big tier break
7. Kyler
8. Burrow
tier break
9. Prescott
10. Love
11. Daniels
12. Caleb Williams
mini tier break
13. Purdy
14. Lawrence
mini tier break
15. Tua
16. Goff
17. Herbert
tier break
18. Cousins
19. Stafford
20. Rodgers
21. Watson
22. Baker
23. Geno
24. Levis
tier break
25. Young
26. Maye
27. McCarthy
28. Jones
29. Carr
tier break
30. Nix
31. Fields
32. Russ
tier break
33. Minshew
34. Darnold
35. O'Connell
36. Hill
 
Wide Receivers:

1. Lamb
2. Hill
3. Chase
4. Jefferson
5. St.Brown
tier break
6. AJB
7. Puka
8. Wilson
mini tier break
9. MHJ
10. London
mini tier break
11. Olave
12. Aiyuk
13. Adams
14. Nico
15. Waddle
16. Deebo
17. Evans
mini tier break
18. Nabers
19. Dmith
20. Metcalf
21. DJ Moore
22. Diggs
mini tier break
23. Kupp
24. Pittman
25. Flowers
26. Dell
mini tier break
27. Higgins
28. Pickens
29. Cooper
30. Kirk
tier break
31. McLaurin
32. Hollywood
33. Allen
34. Reed
35. Ridley
36. Worthy
37. Godwin
mini tier break
38. Odunze
39. Addison
40. McConkey
41. Hopkins
42. Brian Thomas
43. Coleman
44. Diontae
45. Rice
mini tier break
46. Christian Watson
47. JSN
48. Jamo
tier break
49. Sutton
50. Samuel
51. Lockett
52. Doubs
53. Shaheed
54. Shakir
55. Palmer
mini tier break
56. Mike Williams
57. Adonai
58. Meyers
59. Cooks
60. Wicks
61. Jeudy
tier break
62. Downs
63. Davis
64. Dotson
65. Legette
66. Persall
67. Polk
tier break
68. QJ
69. Mooney
70. Burton
71. Roman Wilson
72. Thielen
tier break
73. Bateman
74. Corley
75. Wan'Dale
76. Franklin
77. Michael Wilson
78. Mimms
79. Douglas
80. Robinson
81. Luke McCaffrey
tier break
82. Javon Baker
83. McMillan
84. Zay Jones
85. Tez Walker
86. Tolbert
87. Boyd
88. Slayton
89. Chark
90. OBJ
91. Eli Moore
92. Dorch
93. Rondale Moore
94. Hyatt
95. Kalif Raymond
96. Claypool
 
There is a total sweet spot for RBs if you wait around
Let's talk about this observation...and I'll use Fantasy Pros consensus HPPR rankings with this being the production format (YFS/Receptions/TDs)

Najee Harris (RB23): 2022 saw him go for 1267/41/10 while 2023 saw him go for 1205/29/8. Bland. But in the 8 games after Canada was fired? 686/13/6. He's in a contract year. He just acquired Arthur 'I built my HC credentials riding Derrick Henry's ability to break tackles' Smith. His QB will be Russell Wilson or Justin Fields.

DeAndre Swift (RB24): 1263/39/6 in 16 games...pretty solid numbers in what seemed like a reputation rehab type season performance where his toughness was being questioned. His TD numbers also neutered by the tush push. The contract was one of FA's early ones while the Bears pursuit seemed to be quite deliberate and singular.

Tony Pollard (RB26): Last year was just so very non-descript (1317/55/6). Was it the leg which sapped his explosiveness? Maybe. And he won't have carte blanche at 70% of the workload like he was given in DAL last year. but isn't that the role he's excelled in in the past? A 60/40 sharing of the load still would mean alot of volume especially in a non-Dak/CD led offense. Alot of people taking a bad year to heart.

Zack Moss (RB30): Moss played 707 snaps for IND. 1363/31/8. Solid. But he was yo-yo'ed a bit in terms of workload since JTaylor was their RB1 when injury and contract weren't issues. So in games where Moss got 50%+ more of the RB snaps...different story. 12 games - 1097/25/6.

Austin Ekeler (RB33): Certainly another RB coming off a down year like Pollard, changing teams to boot. His signature 2023 play was him reaching a top speed of 13 miles/hour. But 2020-2022 saw him play in 43 games; 4128/231/41. His game 1 in 2023 was a typical Ekeler performance. Yes, that 3.13 YPC was ugly thereafter, but he reunites with the coach that ' discovered' him in Anthony Lynn. RB33 for a pass catching back whose shown an ability to be very productive in the red zone?

Gus Edwards (RB36):
I mean this just seems silly. Yes, Gus is non-existent in the passing game albeit from the odd 80-yard play. But JK Dobbins seems his only real threat from a workload standpoint...whatever he has left is simply an unknown. Gus inside the 5 while losing a QB that averaged 10.5 rushes from 2019-2023 seems like a no-brainer in terms of outperformance.

NOW...the question is, how much worse do you feel about this group above when compared with...

DeVon Achane (RB11)
Joe Mixon (RB15)
Ken Walker (RB16)
Alvin Kamara (RB17)
Aaron Jones (RB19)

...from my POV, this almost feels too obvious. Where most owners will go into their drafts thinking I can wait on RB2. For me, it feels like you siomply wait on the whole position. Almost irrationally.
 
While I dont think Tua is a bad pick at ADP, you need to strategize on your #2 QB. Tua isnt startable in bad weather games. Tua is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 in temperatures under 40 degrees. I dont like that going into winter months when the playoff hunt is heating up.

He's also 10-15 pounds lighter this year. Not sure how that might affect his durability and his O-line still stinks.

Honestly, with so many options in his tier, I'll probably look elsewhere.
Let's walk thru it together, great post btw....

JAX
BUF
@Sea...Sept day game, weather should not be the overriding factor IMHO
TEN
@ Pats...Oct 6th, doubt a blizzard rolls thru
@ Indy...DOME

AZ
@ Bills...early Nov, should not be a white out
@ LA Rams...I lived in LA for several years, doubt mid Nov there is much to worry about here
LVR
NEP

@ GB on Thanksgiving could be an issue
NYJ
@ Hou...TEXAS in Nov/Dec should not be an issue
SF

Week 17 and 18, likely the Bowl Game or Final for most redrafts...
@ Cle and @ NYJ, those are the absolute worst possible weather games for Tua and they are at the very end so I would think Tua is a very safe play most weeks of the season.

Tua/Staff or Tua/Goff has been one of my best combos at QB after waiting and waiting

As a QB2 sure. But I dont want my QB1 to be unstartable in the fantasy playoffs or the weeks leading up to them.

Your Tua/Goff pair is great, but Goff has an earlier ADP than Tua so he'd technically be your QB1.

I do agree that Tua's upside is through the roof and I would be thrilled with him as my QB2.
Say what now?
Tua threw for more yards than any other QB in the NFL last year as painful as that is for me to post.
The Dolphins have speed and weapons in spades at the skill positions and got even stronger thru the draft and the signing of OBJ now on the team.
Tua Tags as a QB2?

We can agree to disagree, I've always enjoyed your posts and there's no beef/issue here, we just see Tua and Dolphins' passing game a little different this season
You add in a rather soft schedule, the entire Miami Dolphins offense might be underrated
Food for thought, it's still June

What pushes him to QB2 for me is his inconsistency and bad play in bad weather which just happens to coincide with fantasy playoffs. Thats not what I want in a QB1. It pushes him to being part of a QB by committee, which is fine. So QB1A/1B maybe instead of a true QB2. He will have weeks where he will win you your matchup.
Here is where I am finding disconnect (and you are a great poster, this ain't personal)...you're worried about the last game of the season, not saying that's unfair but i clearly showed where Tua has a cake walk most of the year, still not good enough. I will take my chances last week of the season in the Fantasy Bowl with Tua...BUT BUT BUT I trust myself that throughout the season i can find another QB, a true QB2 if I need in the waning moments of the FF season. Tua is going to be an Auto-Win some weeks for owners and I'll gladly scoop those up

You appear very focused on the end of '23 and I would encourage you to look at the 1st half of '23 with Tua.
I think the schedule and numerous skill guys they have provided PLUS he is overdue for an extension....

Do you understand I am a Miami Dolphins life long fan and I dislike Tua, even going back to when the Dolphins selected him
I think Herbert might be better pick later but he hasn't done a whole lot either post season, same boat as Tua.

I am all about OFFENSE in Redrafts and i see a QB going well after the perceived top QBs that has a good chance to finish Top 6 IMHO...I'll take that Rd 8 to go with all the riches I take at WR/RB the first 7 rounds.

Hill-Waddle-Achance-Mostert-OBJ and 3 pretty strong rookie selections including the Washington and Washington boys at WR and also Jaylen Wright at RB
Miami also upgraded the TE position in the off season although I am not as big a Jonnu Smith fan as other Phinfans

Just things to ponder
 
There is a total sweet spot for RBs if you wait around
Let's talk about this observation...and I'll use Fantasy Pros consensus HPPR rankings with this being the production format (YFS/Receptions/TDs)

Najee Harris (RB23): 2022 saw him go for 1267/41/10 while 2023 saw him go for 1205/29/8. Bland. But in the 8 games after Canada was fired? 686/13/6. He's in a contract year. He just acquired Arthur 'I built my HC credentials riding Derrick Henry's ability to break tackles' Smith. His QB will be Russell Wilson or Justin Fields.

DeAndre Swift (RB24): 1263/39/6 in 16 games...pretty solid numbers in what seemed like a reputation rehab type season performance where his toughness was being questioned. His TD numbers also neutered by the tush push. The contract was one of FA's early ones while the Bears pursuit seemed to be quite deliberate and singular.

Tony Pollard (RB26): Last year was just so very non-descript (1317/55/6). Was it the leg which sapped his explosiveness? Maybe. And he won't have carte blanche at 70% of the workload like he was given in DAL last year. but isn't that the role he's excelled in in the past? A 60/40 sharing of the load still would mean alot of volume especially in a non-Dak/CD led offense. Alot of people taking a bad year to heart.

Zack Moss (RB30): Moss played 707 snaps for IND. 1363/31/8. Solid. But he was yo-yo'ed a bit in terms of workload since JTaylor was their RB1 when injury and contract weren't issues. So in games where Moss got 50%+ more of the RB snaps...different story. 12 games - 1097/25/6.

Austin Ekeler (RB33): Certainly another RB coming off a down year like Pollard, changing teams to boot. His signature 2023 play was him reaching a top speed of 13 miles/hour. But 2020-2022 saw him play in 43 games; 4128/231/41. His game 1 in 2023 was a typical Ekeler performance. Yes, that 3.13 YPC was ugly thereafter, but he reunites with the coach that ' discovered' him in Anthony Lynn. RB33 for a pass catching back whose shown an ability to be very productive in the red zone?

Gus Edwards (RB36): I mean this just seems silly. Yes, Gus is non-existent in the passing game albeit from the odd 80-yard play. But JK Dobbins seems his only real threat from a workload standpoint...whatever he has left is simply an unknown. Gus inside the 5 while losing a QB that averaged 10.5 rushes from 2019-2023 seems like a no-brainer in terms of outperformance.

NOW...the question is, how much worse do you feel about this group above when compared with...

DeVon Achane (RB11)
Joe Mixon (RB15)
Ken Walker (RB16)
Alvin Kamara (RB17)
Aaron Jones (RB19)

...from my POV, this almost feels too obvious. Where most owners will go into their drafts thinking I can wait on RB2. For me, it feels like you siomply wait on the whole position. Almost irrationally.
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

:towelwave:

These are the types of posts that get me going
I gotta digest it for a couple days but I like what i'm reading here.
Glad others also see a similar sweet spot for RBs, great place to find those RB2/3 types.
 
While I dont think Tua is a bad pick at ADP, you need to strategize on your #2 QB. Tua isnt startable in bad weather games. Tua is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 in temperatures under 40 degrees. I dont like that going into winter months when the playoff hunt is heating up.

He's also 10-15 pounds lighter this year. Not sure how that might affect his durability and his O-line still stinks.

Honestly, with so many options in his tier, I'll probably look elsewhere.
Let's walk thru it together, great post btw....

JAX
BUF
@Sea...Sept day game, weather should not be the overriding factor IMHO
TEN
@ Pats...Oct 6th, doubt a blizzard rolls thru
@ Indy...DOME

AZ
@ Bills...early Nov, should not be a white out
@ LA Rams...I lived in LA for several years, doubt mid Nov there is much to worry about here
LVR
NEP

@ GB on Thanksgiving could be an issue
NYJ
@ Hou...TEXAS in Nov/Dec should not be an issue
SF

Week 17 and 18, likely the Bowl Game or Final for most redrafts...
@ Cle and @ NYJ, those are the absolute worst possible weather games for Tua and they are at the very end so I would think Tua is a very safe play most weeks of the season.

Tua/Staff or Tua/Goff has been one of my best combos at QB after waiting and waiting

As a QB2 sure. But I dont want my QB1 to be unstartable in the fantasy playoffs or the weeks leading up to them.

Your Tua/Goff pair is great, but Goff has an earlier ADP than Tua so he'd technically be your QB1.

I do agree that Tua's upside is through the roof and I would be thrilled with him as my QB2.
Say what now?
Tua threw for more yards than any other QB in the NFL last year as painful as that is for me to post.
The Dolphins have speed and weapons in spades at the skill positions and got even stronger thru the draft and the signing of OBJ now on the team.
Tua Tags as a QB2?

We can agree to disagree, I've always enjoyed your posts and there's no beef/issue here, we just see Tua and Dolphins' passing game a little different this season
You add in a rather soft schedule, the entire Miami Dolphins offense might be underrated
Food for thought, it's still June

What pushes him to QB2 for me is his inconsistency and bad play in bad weather which just happens to coincide with fantasy playoffs. Thats not what I want in a QB1. It pushes him to being part of a QB by committee, which is fine. So QB1A/1B maybe instead of a true QB2. He will have weeks where he will win you your matchup.
Here is where I am finding disconnect (and you are a great poster, this ain't personal)...you're worried about the last game of the season, not saying that's unfair but i clearly showed where Tua has a cake walk most of the year, still not good enough. I will take my chances last week of the season in the Fantasy Bowl with Tua...BUT BUT BUT I trust myself that throughout the season i can find another QB, a true QB2 if I need in the waning moments of the FF season. Tua is going to be an Auto-Win some weeks for owners and I'll gladly scoop those up

You appear very focused on the end of '23 and I would encourage you to look at the 1st half of '23 with Tua.
I think the schedule and numerous skill guys they have provided PLUS he is overdue for an extension....

Do you understand I am a Miami Dolphins life long fan and I dislike Tua, even going back to when the Dolphins selected him
I think Herbert might be better pick later but he hasn't done a whole lot either post season, same boat as Tua.

I am all about OFFENSE in Redrafts and i see a QB going well after the perceived top QBs that has a good chance to finish Top 6 IMHO...I'll take that Rd 8 to go with all the riches I take at WR/RB the first 7 rounds.

Hill-Waddle-Achance-Mostert-OBJ and 3 pretty strong rookie selections including the Washington and Washington boys at WR and also Jaylen Wright at RB
Miami also upgraded the TE position in the off season although I am not as big a Jonnu Smith fan as other Phinfans

Just things to ponder
We’re just going back and forth at this point, but look at menobrown’s post above. How are you going to be able to know when he will have a top 5 week or when he will have a 27th ranked week. You have to get most of those start/sit decisions right for him to return value. These ups and downs happened all season.
 
While I dont think Tua is a bad pick at ADP, you need to strategize on your #2 QB. Tua isnt startable in bad weather games. Tua is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 in temperatures under 40 degrees. I dont like that going into winter months when the playoff hunt is heating up.

He's also 10-15 pounds lighter this year. Not sure how that might affect his durability and his O-line still stinks.

Honestly, with so many options in his tier, I'll probably look elsewhere.
Let's walk thru it together, great post btw....

JAX
BUF
@Sea...Sept day game, weather should not be the overriding factor IMHO
TEN
@ Pats...Oct 6th, doubt a blizzard rolls thru
@ Indy...DOME

AZ
@ Bills...early Nov, should not be a white out
@ LA Rams...I lived in LA for several years, doubt mid Nov there is much to worry about here
LVR
NEP

@ GB on Thanksgiving could be an issue
NYJ
@ Hou...TEXAS in Nov/Dec should not be an issue
SF

Week 17 and 18, likely the Bowl Game or Final for most redrafts...
@ Cle and @ NYJ, those are the absolute worst possible weather games for Tua and they are at the very end so I would think Tua is a very safe play most weeks of the season.

Tua/Staff or Tua/Goff has been one of my best combos at QB after waiting and waiting

As a QB2 sure. But I dont want my QB1 to be unstartable in the fantasy playoffs or the weeks leading up to them.

Your Tua/Goff pair is great, but Goff has an earlier ADP than Tua so he'd technically be your QB1.

I do agree that Tua's upside is through the roof and I would be thrilled with him as my QB2.
Say what now?
Tua threw for more yards than any other QB in the NFL last year as painful as that is for me to post.
The Dolphins have speed and weapons in spades at the skill positions and got even stronger thru the draft and the signing of OBJ now on the team.
Tua Tags as a QB2?

We can agree to disagree, I've always enjoyed your posts and there's no beef/issue here, we just see Tua and Dolphins' passing game a little different this season
You add in a rather soft schedule, the entire Miami Dolphins offense might be underrated
Food for thought, it's still June

What pushes him to QB2 for me is his inconsistency and bad play in bad weather which just happens to coincide with fantasy playoffs. Thats not what I want in a QB1. It pushes him to being part of a QB by committee, which is fine. So QB1A/1B maybe instead of a true QB2. He will have weeks where he will win you your matchup.
Here is where I am finding disconnect (and you are a great poster, this ain't personal)...you're worried about the last game of the season, not saying that's unfair but i clearly showed where Tua has a cake walk most of the year, still not good enough. I will take my chances last week of the season in the Fantasy Bowl with Tua...BUT BUT BUT I trust myself that throughout the season i can find another QB, a true QB2 if I need in the waning moments of the FF season. Tua is going to be an Auto-Win some weeks for owners and I'll gladly scoop those up

You appear very focused on the end of '23 and I would encourage you to look at the 1st half of '23 with Tua.
I think the schedule and numerous skill guys they have provided PLUS he is overdue for an extension....

Do you understand I am a Miami Dolphins life long fan and I dislike Tua, even going back to when the Dolphins selected him
I think Herbert might be better pick later but he hasn't done a whole lot either post season, same boat as Tua.

I am all about OFFENSE in Redrafts and i see a QB going well after the perceived top QBs that has a good chance to finish Top 6 IMHO...I'll take that Rd 8 to go with all the riches I take at WR/RB the first 7 rounds.

Hill-Waddle-Achance-Mostert-OBJ and 3 pretty strong rookie selections including the Washington and Washington boys at WR and also Jaylen Wright at RB
Miami also upgraded the TE position in the off season although I am not as big a Jonnu Smith fan as other Phinfans

Just things to ponder
We’re just going back and forth at this point, but look at menobrown’s post above. How are you going to be able to know when he will have a top 5 week or when he will have a 27th ranked week. You have to get most of those start/sit decisions right for him to return value. These ups and downs happened all season.
My apologies, doesn't feel like back and forth, you've done a good job of allowing me to explain why i feel as passionately about him going into '24
-With the losses of Wilkins on the DL and Hunt on the OL, I wouldn't have believed what is coming out of these fingers right now. I would love to accept Tua as you do in '24
Up DOWN Up DOWN Up DOWN and where do you know when to start him? My feeling is soft schedule leads to more consistency and 250/2TD weekly are my expectations
4,600+/29 Pass TDs last season
I have no doubt he throws over 4,000 yds again this year and I see the TDs pushing up more towards 32-38 with all the weapons they have brought in.
4,400 and 37 TDs has a nice ring to it.

What I am trying to broadcast to the larger audience is I firmly see Tua as a QB1 in '24
And I'm totally cool if you don't see it the same way at this time, Scores
-Don't be surprised if Miami makes a couple more moves that might persuade you like perhaps....

This Guy! I had the pleasure of meeting Connor's mom after the NYJ game at the Hard Rock Casino/Hotel, did my best as a Miami ambassador
Thanks for the posts, I understand your POV
Cheers!
 
Speaking of RBs, Ryan Heath wrote a great article about the importance of volume and weighted opportunity for RBs.


So from that, three RBs I'm projecting well below their ceiling, and most likely will avoid at ADP this year:

Josh Jacobs
Tony Pollard
Aaron Jones

They all had horrible efficiency comparing their weighted opps vs points scored.

At first I thought that since all three of these guys changed teams, it makes the data less valuable, but then I learned from the article that RBs changing teams has predictive value for lowered performance.
 
From an Underdog best ball lens, @Ministry of Pain you'll love this fact. 2 of the last 3 BBM winners (won a million+ each) rostered both Tua and Mostert.

What's changed in 2024? Not much. Miami is still likely to put up a boatload of points. Tua is cheaper and Mostert moved up 5 rounds.
  • Tua ADP 124 in the 11th round (went 9th last year)
  • Mostert ADP 96 end of 8th round (went 13th last year)

Another Underdog BBM fact. 2 of last 3 years, the winning team went stud RB first 2 rounds. The 2023 winner was the exception going WR first 5 rounds and picked Tua 9th, Mostert 13th, Stroud 17th and Kyren 18th.
 
From an Underdog best ball lens, @Ministry of Pain you'll love this fact. 2 of the last 3 BBM winners (won a million+ each) rostered both Tua and Mostert.

What's changed in 2024? Not much. Miami is still likely to put up a boatload of points. Tua is cheaper and Mostert moved up 5 rounds.
  • Tua ADP 124 in the 11th round (went 9th last year)
  • Mostert ADP 96 end of 8th round (went 13th last year)

Another Underdog BBM fact. 2 of last 3 years, the winning team went stud RB first 2 rounds. The 2023 winner was the exception going WR first 5 rounds and picked Tua 9th, Mostert 13th, Stroud 17th and Kyren 18th.
Best ball is the perfect type of league to favor Tua in. You don’t have to make the decision when to start him. I imagine his best ball ADP is quite higher than typical redraft.

It’s a completely different situation when you have to make start/sit decisions.
 
This time of year, while the NFL is pretty much on break; the thing to do is practice. That means mock drafts, best ball drafts and getting a feel how players are moving and how drafts are flowing. My first few drafts left me feeling very uneasy, like I was always being caught off-guard. Now, I'm much more comfortable and beginning to formulate strategies.

Now, when to have your redraft drafts? Well, drafting now brings the risk of your team being decimated by week 1. On the other hand, July's deep round sleepers will be going between rounds 6-10 come mid-August.
 
There is a total sweet spot for RBs if you wait around

...from my POV, this almost feels too obvious. Where most owners will go into their drafts thinking I can wait on RB2. For me, it feels like you simply wait on the whole position. Almost irrationally.
Interesting thoughts...looking at the ranked list of RB's, it goes 45-50+ with guys who are at least interesting. I can see waiting (or taking one top 5 guy early) while stocking up on other positions.
The question (depending on starting requirements) is how far down the list would you dip for your first RB selection? The draft scenarios might lead you to take your first RB's in back to back or in 2 of 3 rounds for example. For me it might be Brian Robinson Jr - though I would probably rank him higher than a few guys - or maybe Chase Brown or Spears if I am really pushing it.
 
This time of year, while the NFL is pretty much on break; the thing to do is practice. That means mock drafts, best ball drafts and getting a feel how players are moving and how drafts are flowing. My first few drafts left me feeling very uneasy, like I was always being caught off-guard. Now, I'm much more comfortable and beginning to formulate strategies.

Now, when to have your redraft drafts? Well, drafting now brings the risk of your team being decimated by week 1. On the other hand, July's deep round sleepers will be going between rounds 6-10 come mid-August.

One way to do it. I've used to do 100+ mocks and found the diminishing returns didn't really add much value.

I have done maybe a dozen mocks for redraft. Probably won't do another until mid-August. Our draft is always the 4th Sunday in August.

I have 522 players ranked rn. Will probably be over 550 by the end of summer. Our draft is 18 rounds, so in theory I only need to rank 216. But I find getting these guys on my radar preseason saves a lot of time when I need to hit the WW or a significant injury occurs.

What I focus on this time of year is starting out player projections. I've already completed my team projections, now I am going through each team for the individual projections. Along the way I make frequent stops to read draft scouting reportings or watch film. We're in that 6 week dark period between Minicamp and Training Camp, so it's an ideal time to methodically go through a deep dive of all 32 teams.

Admittedly I spend a lot more time on high octane teams and do only cursory research on bottom 5 / bottom 10 offenses. Which is not a universal rule for me, gosh I've squeezed production out of
countless good player/bad situation scenarios. But just as a baseline, I have developed a strong preference over the last 25 years for players on winning teams and/or teams that score TDs often. Reductive but it works for me lol.

full PPR 12 team
 
What pushes him to QB2 for me is his inconsistency and bad play in bad weather which just happens to coincide with fantasy playoffs
It's not just bad weather, he's just inconsistent.

Without checking weather reports here is where he finished each week:

1
27
3
17
14
4
23
7
17
9
22
10
22
22*
21*
16*

The * gets me to the second reason I'm not so high on him. Just my opinion here but he's made by the system and the top two WR's. I'm not saying anything novel when I say he's like a PG, highly accurate and quick in his decision making and when he's got Waddle and Tyreek both available and healthy that works out great with them and the entirety of the system.

That's what those * denotes. Those last 3 weeks he was without Tyreek one game, without Waddle another, and the game he finished 21st he was without Waddle for a half while Tyreek was returning from missing a game.

Good weapons help all QB's, but I dont' think any QB in the league is more reliant on his top two WR's then Tua and that's an extra layer of concern past the inconsistenty as you need 3 players to stay healthy or his decline seems impactful.

Due to the inconsistency he's solid Best Ball QB2, a high end one. I'm not messing with him in non BB leagues where I need to draft him.
Could a lot of this inconsistency be tied to Mostert/Achane and their combined 26 rushing TD's? As the passing yardage leader it seems what held Tua back from a consistent week to week scoring was TD's and where they came from. So if those rushing TD numbers go down it's likely because Tua's TD's go up. More TD's likely leads to a more consistent week to week performance.

Just another piece to the puzzle of figuring out why the up and downs may have happened.
 
Last edited:
What pushes him to QB2 for me is his inconsistency and bad play in bad weather which just happens to coincide with fantasy playoffs
It's not just bad weather, he's just inconsistent.

Without checking weather reports here is where he finished each week:

1
27
3
17
14
4
23
7
17
9
22
10
22
22*
21*
16*

The * gets me to the second reason I'm not so high on him. Just my opinion here but he's made by the system and the top two WR's. I'm not saying anything novel when I say he's like a PG, highly accurate and quick in his decision making and when he's got Waddle and Tyreek both available and healthy that works out great with them and the entirety of the system.

That's what those * denotes. Those last 3 weeks he was without Tyreek one game, without Waddle another, and the game he finished 21st he was without Waddle for a half while Tyreek was returning from missing a game.

Good weapons help all QB's, but I dont' think any QB in the league is more reliant on his top two WR's then Tua and that's an extra layer of concern past the inconsistenty as you need 3 players to stay healthy or his decline seems impactful.

Due to the inconsistency he's solid Best Ball QB2, a high end one. I'm not messing with him in non BB leagues where I need to draft him.
Could a lot of this inconsistency be tied to Mostert/Achane and their combined 26 rushing TD's? As the passing yardage leader it seems what held Tua back from a consistent week to week scoring was TD's and where they came from. So if those rushing TD numbers go down it's likely because Tua's TD's go up. More TD's likely leads to a more consistent week to week performance.

Just another piece to the puzzle if figuring out why the up and downs may have happened.

There is a very strong correlation to Tua performing badly in < 70 degree weather and even worse when it gets really cold. But other weeks where he is inconsistent, that could be a reason. I mean, no need to throw if you're running that well.

To be fair, he wasn't all that bad last year in terms of consistency. Right around average according to my metric. But I guess with those weapons, you want a bit more.

These were his fantasy points each week last year. You can see his production got worse late in the year but most of those were at home. I assume the weather in Miami is still good in December?

at LAC
28.1​
at NEP
13.3​
DEN
28.4​
at BUF
15​
NYG
18.9​
CAR
22.5​
PHI
11.3​
NEP
22.8​
at KC
12.4​
LV
BYE​
at NYJ
18.6​
at WAS
9.8​
TEN
19.2​
NYJ
9.1​
DAL
13​
at BAL
15.5​
BUF
16.9​
 
What pushes him to QB2 for me is his inconsistency and bad play in bad weather which just happens to coincide with fantasy playoffs
It's not just bad weather, he's just inconsistent.

Without checking weather reports here is where he finished each week:

1
27
3
17
14
4
23
7
17
9
22
10
22
22*
21*
16*

The * gets me to the second reason I'm not so high on him. Just my opinion here but he's made by the system and the top two WR's. I'm not saying anything novel when I say he's like a PG, highly accurate and quick in his decision making and when he's got Waddle and Tyreek both available and healthy that works out great with them and the entirety of the system.

That's what those * denotes. Those last 3 weeks he was without Tyreek one game, without Waddle another, and the game he finished 21st he was without Waddle for a half while Tyreek was returning from missing a game.

Good weapons help all QB's, but I dont' think any QB in the league is more reliant on his top two WR's then Tua and that's an extra layer of concern past the inconsistenty as you need 3 players to stay healthy or his decline seems impactful.

Due to the inconsistency he's solid Best Ball QB2, a high end one. I'm not messing with him in non BB leagues where I need to draft him.
Could a lot of this inconsistency be tied to Mostert/Achane and their combined 26 rushing TD's? As the passing yardage leader it seems what held Tua back from a consistent week to week scoring was TD's and where they came from. So if those rushing TD numbers go down it's likely because Tua's TD's go up. More TD's likely leads to a more consistent week to week performance.

Just another piece to the puzzle of figuring out why the up and downs may have happened.
Yes I think the rushing TD's by the RB's was one of reasons for his inconsistency.

The other is that he's close to a zero in rushing production so there is only one way for him to score.

Miami as a team had the 4th most fantasy points for the QB position from their goal the opponents 21 yard line. Tua was third in fantasy points in pure passing in this area.

As a team they fell to 23rd in QB fantasy points inside the 20.

He's a top 5 fantasy QB outside the red zone, a bottom 10 fantasy QB inside of it.

I think that's due to 3 reasons. The rushing TD prowess of the RB's, his own lack of rushing ability, and the speed and impact of what Tyreek and Waddle bring to the team is minimized when the field shrinks.
 

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