Redraft Regrets Support Group (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Last I read, Ollison may not make the team.

I saw that too - whoever Mike Davis’ backup is should be rostered then, because it’s Mike Davis. 

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Had my first draft tonight, and as expected, I have "regerts". I drafted Gibson and Jacobs in the first four rounds -- not amazing but not terrible coming out of the 11 spot -- and then I "let the draft come to me" and woke up in Round 10 realizing I hadn't added any more RBs since. The only other two on my roster are Jamaal Wiliams and Coleman.

New league so no idea how active people will be on the WW, but I'm definitely going to need to go hunting for breakout RBs.

 

[Ilov80s]

Had my first draft tonight, and as expected, I have "regerts". I drafted Gibson and Jacobs in the first four rounds -- not amazing but not terrible coming out of the 11 spot -- and then I "let the draft come to me" and woke up in Round 10 realizing I hadn't added any more RBs since. The only other two on my roster are Jamaal Wiliams and Coleman.

New league so no idea how active people will be on the WW, but I'm definitely going to need to go hunting for breakout RBs.

That’s not too terrible assuming you are strong at WR, QB and TE.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Had my first draft tonight, and as expected, I have "regerts". I drafted Gibson and Jacobs in the first four rounds -- not amazing but not terrible coming out of the 11 spot -- and then I "let the draft come to me" and woke up in Round 10 realizing I hadn't added any more RBs since. The only other two on my roster are Jamaal Wiliams and Coleman.

New league so no idea how active people will be on the WW, but I'm definitely going to need to go hunting for breakout RBs.

Oh man. I've done this. It's never a good thing. But WW adds do happen. You could get that next gem who propels you to a championship. It could be Williams even. 

Bring it in, hug it out. Ahhh. That feels better already. 

/support group

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

That’s not too terrible assuming you are strong at WR, QB and TE.

Looking back at the round-by-round, the key decision point was at the 5/6 turn when I took Hock and Russell Wilson. I really wanted to get a TE at that point and had decided I would take Wilson if he were still there, but during the long stretch after that pick I lost out on a ton of potential RB3s (Henderson, Sermon, Javonte, Edmonds and, one spot before my next pick, Ronald Jones). I had never had that problem in my mocks, but then, I'm not sure how many mocks I did from the 11-spot. 

If I hadn't taken the guys I did, I probably would have ended up with Logan Thomas as my TE and/or Tannehill as my QB. I feel like the upgrade at both positions is worth missing out on an RB3, but it will ultimately come down to whether I can add depth as the season goes on. 

Anyway, I know no one cares about my fantasy team, but if I could generalize my experience into a cautionary lesson for everyone, it would be that if you're going with a QB/TE stack near the turn, be mindful of the risks. That's a key part of the draft for adding depth, and RB tends to fall off a cliff after a certain point.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Had my first draft tonight, and as expected, I have "regerts". I drafted Gibson and Jacobs in the first four rounds -- not amazing but not terrible coming out of the 11 spot -- and then I "let the draft come to me" and woke up in Round 10 realizing I hadn't added any more RBs since. The only other two on my roster are Jamaal Wiliams and Coleman.

New league so no idea how active people will be on the WW, but I'm definitely going to need to go hunting for breakout RBs.

Oh, and I also gave myself yet another bye-pocalypse, this time in Week 9. The thing that annoys me the most is that I don't really mind if I have to punt a week, but I hate having my QB and TE with the same bye weeks because it means I have to roster backups for both at the same time.

But in contrast to last year, I actually went into this one with eyes open; I was going to take Andrews at TE but got snaked one pick before, so I had to take Hock. And at that point, I didn't feel right taking Rodgers over Wilson just because of the bye week.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Anyway, I know no one cares about my fantasy team, but if I could generalize my experience into a cautionary lesson for everyone, it would be that if you're going with a QB/TE stack near the turn, be mindful of the risks. That's a key part of the draft for adding depth, and RB tends to fall off a cliff after a certain point.

I put it in the "cautionary tale for drafting at or near the turn, when 20 picks come off the board between your picks". 

IMO, you coulda had either Wilson, or Hock, but not both. Taking both set you back, because a lot can happen in 20 picks. Like a run on RB that leaves you flat when it gets back to you. Now you need to either reach for a scrubby RB, or take value elsewhere. Do that a couple times & you end up right where you did with 2 on your roster. 

Plus Tannehill isn't a bad fallback. Or Stafford, or Hurts - they may not be as sexy as an elite QB, but they'll often perform like one. 

Good luck to you this year! 

 

[Ilov80s]

Looking back at the round-by-round, the key decision point was at the 5/6 turn when I took Hock and Russell Wilson. I really wanted to get a TE at that point and had decided I would take Wilson if he were still there, but during the long stretch after that pick I lost out on a ton of potential RB3s (Henderson, Sermon, Javonte, Edmonds and, one spot before my next pick, Ronald Jones). I had never had that problem in my mocks, but then, I'm not sure how many mocks I did from the 11-spot. 

If I hadn't taken the guys I did, I probably would have ended up with Logan Thomas as my TE and/or Tannehill as my QB. I feel like the upgrade at both positions is worth missing out on an RB3, but it will ultimately come down to whether I can add depth as the season goes on. 

Anyway, I know no one cares about my fantasy team, but if I could generalize my experience into a cautionary lesson for everyone, it would be that if you're going with a QB/TE stack near the turn, be mindful of the risks. That's a key part of the draft for adding depth, and RB tends to fall off a cliff after a certain point.

Just make sure to be a hawk on the WW for RBs and you could end up with a killer team. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Looking back at the round-by-round, the key decision point was at the 5/6 turn when I took Hock and Russell Wilson. I really wanted to get a TE at that point and had decided I would take Wilson if he were still there, but during the long stretch after that pick I lost out on a ton of potential RB3s (Henderson, Sermon, Javonte, Edmonds and, one spot before my next pick, Ronald Jones). I had never had that problem in my mocks, but then, I'm not sure how many mocks I did from the 11-spot. 

If I hadn't taken the guys I did, I probably would have ended up with Logan Thomas as my TE and/or Tannehill as my QB. I feel like the upgrade at both positions is worth missing out on an RB3, but it will ultimately come down to whether I can add depth as the season goes on. 

Anyway, I know no one cares about my fantasy team, but if I could generalize my experience into a cautionary lesson for everyone, it would be that if you're going with a QB/TE stack near the turn, be mindful of the risks. That's a key part of the draft for adding depth, and RB tends to fall off a cliff after a certain point.

Everybody has different draft philosophies, and there’s more than one way to skin a cat. But for myself, it’s a hard rule: wait on QB, or wait on TE, but not both, And def never either. [ETA: awkward phrasing, meant draft one run the other, but not punt both, and never ever draft both early)

If I take both a TE and a QB in the first half of a draft (first 6-7 rounds), I’m probably relatively weak at RB/WR. Oh, it’s never completely horrible, I can make it work, I’ll grind the wire. From a roster construction standpoint, just not my preference.

_______________

I’m not trying to pick on you; we’re all just here to learn from one another. Your middle paragraph is sort of the polar opposite of my core beliefs about drafts. That doesn’t make me right - I win my league every 4-5 years, and I don’t play fir bug money. I haven’t mastered this hobby. But hear me out & try to keep an open mind.

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During every draft, I follow on  a color coded Draft Board. I always want to know how the draft is flowing. I usually want to swim against the current, bc that’s where the value is. If the draft - the league as a whole - is focusing more on RBs, I’m not interested in being at the end of that run (& vice versa.) There are probably some WRs who are outside their ADP or ECR. I’m the guy who stops the QB/TE run and takes sick value BPA.

I’m always counting tiles on that color coded draft board - either the league software or DD - and I basically ALWAYS know where RBs are at. 15 have been taken after round 2, 22 are gone after round 4, et al. Sure, I’m looking at targeting specific players as my turn comes up, but I’m always thinking about that flow. This year I divided up QBs into 4 Tiers, TEs only 3, and for RBs I think more about roles.

QBs - 2 elite passers, then 2 running QBs, then 2 hybrids. I don’t think I have too name them. 7-15, not much difference. I’m vaguely aware if the draft is in Tier 1-3 or if I’m ok punting here.

TEs - Big 3, little 3, the bakers dozen (7-19 are all about the same.) I sometimes like a Waller or Kittle, but at worst I try to always leave with a could be elite guy.

RBs - I’m always counting those tiles. I know I’ve already said that, but it’s important. I know not only how many have gone so far, how many went during the last round, MOST importantly, I pretty much know (+/- 1.5) how many are coming off the board in the next round after I make this pick. Constantly. CountIng. RB. Tiles.it anchors everything else I think about.

I rarely worry about WRs. There’s value in every part of the draft, scarcity is never an issue. I find ones I like, but whatever - they’re going to make sad (see below.)

I can stream QBs and find emergent starters, every year. Without fail. But if you take a Top 6, one less thing to worry about. 

TEs - If you’re not getting an elite (or could be elite), then you’re praying for a TD. Streaming is really hard.

WRs -there’s an melancholy of infinite sadness to WR3. I try to draft two in the top 12-15 and then add three or four more at any point. It doesn’t matter if I take WR25 or WR31 or WR55 - he’s going to make me sad, often. It’s part of the charm, a feature not a bug.

RBs - did I mention I’m counting color coded tiles? Like, all the time. It’s the same thing every year. I never stop drafting them, I’m constantly churning them through my roster from the WW. I want a Top 10 RB after 2 rounds and a Top 20 RB after 4 rounds. After that, 1/3rd role players, 2/3rds upside. I want 3 (or preferably 4) of the top 30. I want 4-5 of the top 35. I want 5-6 of the top 40. I’m constantly counting tiles and keeping the RB count up to date. I’ll take value WRs where I find them, but the flow of the draft dictates where my RBs are at. I want to be one of the first 3 teams to have 3 RBs, one of the first 3 to have 4 RBs, etc. it never stops. I am always counting. 

RB Roles or Upside: my first two RBs def have roles, and they usually have upside. But my Flex and bench player RBs might be either or both. I want 1-2 pass catchers (Bernard, Hines, McKissic), I’m fine taking 1-2 GL back if it’s good value. It’s one part role RBs for every two parts upside RBs. Is there a path to RB1? Does he have the talent to command a bigger share? If there is an injury, will he be part of a RBBC or is he set to be the RB1. I want twice as many of those guys as I do role RBs. Upside backs may or may not have a role, it’s not important. But they have a theoretical path to Top 24 RB.

And I’m always counting tiles.

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TL;DR - do what feels right to you, nobody knows anything.

 

[TZMarkie]

First draft is in the books, and I'm pretty stoked.    Perfect....? No. I did have a couple draft regrets.

  But I feel like its a playoff team, and then let the chips fall where they may.

I ended up getting slot #7, in a 10 teamer. I even told my buddy to "watch , I bet I get slot 7 or 8" . I swear every year in mostly every single one of my leagues I get 7th or 8th. It really is uncanny.  I've had the #1 overall pick ONE TIME is probably nearly 50-60 leagues I've tracked.   This year in my "biggest" league, we do a draft lottery, then pick our spots. I of course, got my USUAL 8TH there too , but I moved back to 11 pick.

 Here is how my draft tonight went down..................

SLOT 7 , 10 TEAMER.......START QB WR WR WR RB RB TE K DEF..... STANDARD , NO FLEX

(7)Davante Adams (GB - WR)

2.(14)Austin Ekeler (LAC - RB)

3.(27)Terry McLaurin (Was - WR)

4.(34)Chris Godwin (TB - WR)

5.(47)Gus Edwards (Bal - RB)

6.(54)Justin Herbert (LAC - QB)

7.(67)Damien Harris (NE - RB)

8.(74)Zack Moss (Buf - RB)

9.(87)Javonte Williams (Den - RB)

10.(94)Melvin Gordon III (Den - RB)

11.(107)Brandin Cooks (Hou - WR)

12.(114)Denver (Den - DEF)

13.(127)Rodrigo Blankenship (Ind - K)

14.(134)Jonnu Smith (NE - TE)

15.(147)Chuba Hubbard (Car - RB)

16.(154)Alexander Mattison (Min - RB)

 MY DRAFT REGRETS -  My strategy usually is to try and acquire 3 top end WRs, so I have an advantage there, then after loading up on RBs, once the attrition, injuries , talent emerging starts, I usually like my teams construct.

 REGRET A -  I wanted to acquire Kyle Pitts in the 5th. But he was sniped before me in rd 4.  (A buddy goes off at #1 overall, and he drafts this....... HENRY, CARSON , JEFFERSON , PITTS )  It tended to get me a bit frustrated I didn't get Pitts so I started loading up on RBs. 5 of my next 6 picks were RBs.   I feel like my starting WR corps of DAVANTE ADAMS , TERRY MCLAURIN and CHRIS GODWIN should give me a pretty good edge on the field, so missing out on Pitts didn't bother me as much.

REGRET B - Possibly waiting on TE too long.    That is kind of misleading.  The last few weeks I've been high on Jonnu Smith (and I knew I could get him ultra late), but the more I think about it, I might have been better served to get a Tonyan, or Fant a touch earlier. But maybe I'm just having a bit of "drafter's remorse" which is similar to "buyers remorse......... (you get the picture)".  I feel like Jonnu is almost certainly a top 12 guy at TE, so I didn't see where the draft capital of 4-5 rounds difference, was worth spending on what might be a possible incremental amount of point differential. I *DO* think Jonnu has some top 5ish or top 6ish upside too.

REGRET C - Wanting a "stronger" WR4 than COOKS. Several TE guys fell in front of me in multiple rounds. Andrews in the 6th, TJ Hockensen in the 9th (great value I think) and there were a couple others. So rather than getting TE/WR in those 9th and 10th rds, I pivoted and wanted to get more strength at RB, so I locked up the Denver backfield.  So I'm stoked at my RB stable which should be built to last the season, I'd liked to have gotten a small upgrade at WR4.  I'll probably be able to snag one off the wire though if I get in a jam.

 I'm happy overall with my first draft, but still a few regrets.

 Now another draft tonight,  THEN another draft tomorrow night..... and a couple more next week.



 TZM

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I put it in the "cautionary tale for drafting at or near the turn, when 20 picks come off the board between your picks". 

IMO, you coulda had either Wilson, or Hock, but not both. Taking both set you back, because a lot can happen in 20 picks. Like a run on RB that leaves you flat when it gets back to you. Now you need to either reach for a scrubby RB, or take value elsewhere. Do that a couple times & you end up right where you did with 2 on your roster. 

Plus Tannehill isn't a bad fallback. Or Stafford, or Hurts - they may not be as sexy as an elite QB, but they'll often perform like one. 

Good luck to you this year! 

This is an excellent point. It's also one I'm pretty sure I made myself earlier in this thread. 

I knew it was a risk, but somehow convinced myself I could get away with it. I think it was because I didn't practice drafting enough from the 11-spot. I hate when leagues rely on the default Yahoo setting of only telling you your draft position 30m beforehand.

One thing this experience helped me realize is that I've (unconsciously) developed a strategy in recent years of making sure I get a couple rookie RB lottery tickets. Last year I got Swift and Gibson on one team, Akers on another. The year before it was Singletary and Sanders. They don't always work out, but I figure if you get a couple and even one hits you can mine really good value. It's harder this year because people have started to catch on to the trend and have bid up the prices on Sermon and Williams (and of course Harris). And ideally I would want to draft them in a spot where I'm not forced to start them Week 1.

Speaking of which, one more regret from last night: Final rounds, I'm picking at the 11. Wanted to take a flier on Stevenson, but I knew the guy behind me with two picks was in his first-ever fantasy draft, so I figure what are the odds he knows about someone that obscure. I decided I would make sure I get the defense I was targeting (Denver) first and grab Stevenson on the comeback ...

... except I forgot he was a Pats fan #damnfootiepajamas