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Redraft Strategies - Waiting on a QB (1 Viewer)

Khy

Footballguy
So this is kind of a transfer over from the Preliminary Must Have Guy thread. Because we were kind of hijacking that topic so I figured I'd make a new thread for it.

I like many are in the camp of waiting on a QB in a redraft league. This year even more so than past years with how much depth we have at the position. Just curious on peoples thoughts right now. Do you wait on QBs? If not, why? If you do, who are some guys you're really targeting this year in the later parts of the draft. Lets take off these people from consideration in this discussion: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin. These are mostly the consensus "Top 10" guys right now. It's possible you should throw Russell Wilson into this mix also but I think a lot of people will let him fall in favor of these guys. So here are my targets barring those exclusions.

#1: Russell Wilson: As I said above I think he'll fall more than those others above but I personally don't see him falling back down to earth this year. If anything I see his production increasing with the addition of Percy Harvin. Right now I think he has a Top 10 floor with a Top 5 ceiling. The second half of last season was some of the best football I've seen played by a QB in awhile. The kid could literally do no wrong. Being that I will wait till at least the 6th round of my fantasy draft where I think it's reasonable he's still there, he's the #1 QB on my board right now. I doubt any of the people I put in the above list will be hanging around and I personally have him above Kaepernick and Griffin regardless of current ADP.

#2: Joe Flacco: Depending on your league some people may be a lot higher on Flacco than I am personally. He just won a Super Bowl and had an amazing playoff run. So people are going to be more intrigued in drafting him this year than last year. If he falls far enough he's definitely better than the other two I've mentioned here. Otherwise he isn't worth a high pick in my opinion.

#3: Phillip Rivers: He's been awful the past two seasons and will likely drop as low as you want/need him to drop. This year though he'll have a healthy Vincent Brown, Danario Alexander and rookie Kennan Allen. I think San Diego is going to be terrible this season as a team but I could see Rivers putting up Top 12 fantasy stats.

#4: Ryan Tannenhill: I'm probably a lot higher on him than most right now and if I do take him later in the draft I'm definitely pairing him with someone else. But I have a feeling it's going to be a big year for Tannenhill. Not as much reasoning behind this as the other two above him, it's more of a gut feeling.

Note: This strategy for me is as much passed on the perceived depth at the QB position as it is with the lack of elite RB and WR talent. Avoiding a QB in the first 2-3 rounds can net you two top 10-15 RBs and a top 10-15 WR. Which I personally find significantly more valuable. As the drop off from Top 10 at either of those position down to 10-20 is way more significant than the QB dropoff from 1-10 to 11-15.

 
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ShaHBucks

Footballguy
In the few mocks I've been in it's pretty easy to land Big Ben/Dalton committee in the 8-12th round or so.

I might push the limit this year and go Dalton/Kolb/Foles or some of the guys you've mentioned above even later and play FA pretty aggressively while everyone is looking for WR/RB's.

The strategy is getting out of hand. Mid 2nd-3rd round I would scrap all plans for Aaron Rodgers

 
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butcher boy

Footballguy
I think the days of automatically going with the "wait on a QB" strategy are over. Last year, taking a QB in round 1 was a good move. This year, however, is a different story.

Last year, there were a lot of question marks surrounding most of the first round running backs. Some people still stubbornly drafted them despite the warning signs and they were most likely burned. Couple this with the fact that there were a ton of mid-round running backs with tremendous upside, and last year was the year to take a safe QB in round 1 and load up on RBs a few rounds later. This strategy won me a title.

This year, a lot of last year's mid-round running back gems have propelled themselves to a first round ADP. You also have a few backs who returned from injury last year and put up great numbers moving them into the first round this year. As a result, the first round is once again filled with great RB talent with very few question marks. As such, waiting on a QB makes more sense this year.

So I think it's a year-to-year thing. Gone are the days of blindly taking a RB in round 1. You have to look at the rest of the field.

 

butcher boy

Footballguy
I would also add that going with a committee is not a strategy I like. Picking the right QB to start every week is tougher than it seems in the pre-season. To me, waiting on a QB means grabbing someone like Romo/Eli/Luck and hoping they can start for me at least 80-90% of the time. Waiting too long and going with a committee introduces another variable to my lineup strategy every week, one I would just as soon avoid.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
I like the first one as a starter, but the other 3 are backups. Before the Crabtree injury I was all aboard waiting on a QB because I identified 12 quality starters, just pick the one that falls before others start to consider their backup. Now Kaep is much more volatile, I think there are going to be some lousy games mixed in. Still more likely to wait than get a top 5 guy early, but I'll be hunting for specific value instead of just taking who falls. We'll see how ADP's develop come August.

 

NYJ

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.

 
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Khy

Footballguy
I think the days of automatically going with the "wait on a QB" strategy are over. Last year, taking a QB in round 1 was a good move. This year, however, is a different story.

Last year, there were a lot of question marks surrounding most of the first round running backs. Some people still stubbornly drafted them despite the warning signs and they were most likely burned. Couple this with the fact that there were a ton of mid-round running backs with tremendous upside, and last year was the year to take a safe QB in round 1 and load up on RBs a few rounds later. This strategy won me a title.

This year, a lot of last year's mid-round running back gems have propelled themselves to a first round ADP. You also have a few backs who returned from injury last year and put up great numbers moving them into the first round this year. As a result, the first round is once again filled with great RB talent with very few question marks. As such, waiting on a QB makes more sense this year.

So I think it's a year-to-year thing. Gone are the days of blindly taking a RB in round 1. You have to look at the rest of the field.
I suppose that's a valid point, even last year though I had several guys on my 'safe' list. My draft could have obviously went very wrong if RG3 didn't pan out well. He did and therefore my draft did. The same could be said for my 2011 draft where I waited till the 8th round and took Matt Ryan. But both of those years I ended up with 2-3 studs at RB. Last season was a little bit of overkill in that I ended up with Foster, Lynch, TRich and Morris. Then in 2011 I had Foster, Sproles (return yardage league he was the #1 RB in 11') and 3 top 10 WRs that season with Bowe, Welker and Roddy and also had Graham on his breakout season. So every time I do this it does end up working out for me. I'm not sure if I'm getting lucky or if I just have a really good gut instinct every season with a late round QB. But for every year it's panned out for me way better than a early QB ever has.

 

butcher boy

Footballguy
I think the days of automatically going with the "wait on a QB" strategy are over. Last year, taking a QB in round 1 was a good move. This year, however, is a different story.

Last year, there were a lot of question marks surrounding most of the first round running backs. Some people still stubbornly drafted them despite the warning signs and they were most likely burned. Couple this with the fact that there were a ton of mid-round running backs with tremendous upside, and last year was the year to take a safe QB in round 1 and load up on RBs a few rounds later. This strategy won me a title.

This year, a lot of last year's mid-round running back gems have propelled themselves to a first round ADP. You also have a few backs who returned from injury last year and put up great numbers moving them into the first round this year. As a result, the first round is once again filled with great RB talent with very few question marks. As such, waiting on a QB makes more sense this year.

So I think it's a year-to-year thing. Gone are the days of blindly taking a RB in round 1. You have to look at the rest of the field.
I suppose that's a valid point, even last year though I had several guys on my 'safe' list. My draft could have obviously went very wrong if RG3 didn't pan out well. He did and therefore my draft did. The same could be said for my 2011 draft where I waited till the 8th round and took Matt Ryan. But both of those years I ended up with 2-3 studs at RB. Last season was a little bit of overkill in that I ended up with Foster, Lynch, TRich and Morris. Then in 2011 I had Foster, Sproles (return yardage league he was the #1 RB in 11') and 3 top 10 WRs that season with Bowe, Welker and Roddy and also had Graham on his breakout season. So every time I do this it does end up working out for me. I'm not sure if I'm getting lucky or if I just have a really good gut instinct every season with a late round QB. But for every year it's panned out for me way better than a early QB ever has.
One thing to note here is that last year, Foster was the exception to the rule. I don't think anyone would've advised skipping him for a QB.

 

Khy

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
If I ended my draft with Manning and Rivers I'd be pretty comfortable as long as I got the RBs and WRs I wanted. I'm very heavy on drafting "my guys" I go into every draft with like 5-10 guys that I'm really (and realistically based on ADP) targeting. And I tend to come out with a good amount of them every year. This year I'd love to come out with something like Charles, McCoy/Lynch, David Wilson which is very realistic for my league. Most years I'm able to snag 2 Top10 ADP RBs. If I could go 1.** Charles, 2.** McCoy I'd pretty much just start running naked around my buddies house during the draft. But that's like my end all be all optimistic draft.

 
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meyerj31

Footballguy
I think you need to let the talent sort it out on a year to year basis, as well as the draft itself playing out. If I'm picking 12th and the first 11 picks are RBs, then I'm likely going to grab Calvin. There's not one great strategy because on draft day that can all go out the window if a player falls.

The league settings are also very important. I've calculated VBD projections for three separate leagues for 2013 and I come up with a different ratio of QB/RB/WR taken in the first round in every league. Those with fewer required RBs have a higher replacement baseline so it makes sense to grab a rock solid QB or WR in round 1 (since perhaps only 6 RBs are taken in that first round). Those leagues where you are required to start 2 RB and there are flex spots should generally see 24 RBs off the board in the first three rounds. It all depends on starter requirements.

in every league format I examined, though, there were at least 2 QBs that made sense to take in the first round because their projected points are so far above baseline. Couple that with the fact that QBs are much less likely to get hurt, then it can be a logical choice. How successful you will be is determined by who exactly you skipped by taking that QB.

The first round seems a lot safer this year than it was last year. After the top few backs, Calvin, and Rodgers were off the board last year, people around pick 8+ were stumped for who to pick. Any of DMC, Chris Johnson, Lynch, etc. were all projected at the same tier. Clearly those who took the first two were hurting. I don't think that's going to be as much of an issue this year. The top two rounds of the draft are really strong and you can't really make a bad pick.

 
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NYJ

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
If I ended my draft with Manning and Rivers I'd be pretty comfortable as long as I got the RBs and WRs I wanted. I'm very heavy on drafting "my guys" I go into every draft with like 5-10 guys that I'm really (and realistically based on ADP) targeting. And I tend to come out with a good amount of them every year. This year I'd love to come out with something like Charles, McCoy/Lynch, David Wilson which is very realistic for my league. Most years I'm able to snag 2 Top10 ADP RBs. If I could go 1.** Charles, 2.** McCoy I'd pretty much just start running naked around my buddies house during the draft. But that's like my end all be all optimistic draft.
I didn't know it until I completed a few mocks but I tend to come out with the same group of players too. LeSean McCoy, Steven Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Cecil Shorts, Josh Gordon and Jared Cook all appeared in multiple teams.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
In a 10-12 team start 1QB leagues, IMO you would be crazy to take a QB in rounds 1 or 2. Personally, here is my list of QBs that I would be happy with as my everyweek starter (not in order that I would rank them)

Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton, RGIII, P Manning, Ryan, R Wilson, Romo, Kaepernick, Stafford

Even Roethlisberger and E Manning could be options. So I would just cross Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and P Manning off my list.....you're going to need at least a 3rd round pick to get any of these. Why not get RBs/WRs/eite TE early and wait until Round 6 or so to get a Romo or a Wilson?

My QB strategy is to wait until 5-6 of my "everyweek starter" list are off the board, then start looking to get one of the remaining ones.

IMO the QB field is pretty deep this year.

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
Here's Grahamburn's quote from that part of the other thread:

I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.
To which I would respond, I think a major difference between the attractiveness of the strategy this year and in years past is the makeup of the guys in the QB8-14 range. Generally, in past seasons these were mostly clear "tier 3" guys ... one of them might (in fact usually would) finish in the top 5, but you never knew who ... and the remaining guys would be pretty safe bets to deliver tier-3-type seasons. Unless you were in a best-ball league, even picking two guys from that group didn't usually help you much - first, you had to make the right choice at starter each week, and second, even with an above-average performance from your guy you'd still find yourself giving up multiple points per week to the Brady / Brees / Rodgers owners. This year, in addition to the "solid but unspectacular" guys in that range, you've got a significant number of possible home-run hitters ... guys that have a real shot of breaking into that top 3, but who just as easily might finish QB18 or QB20. RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Stafford, and Vick may all be getting drafted in the QB8-15 range, but I can assure you they aren't all gonna finish there. One, maybe two will, but the others may flame out, or may catch fire and turn in Brady-type PPG scoring at a 6th or 7th round price tag.

And in standard scoring leagues, I'd much rather have a more binary-type set of outcomes from one half of my QBBC than an all-but-guaranteed QB12 season. If you catch lightning in a bottle, great, you could very well win your league because of it. If not, you bench him or trade him, ride Big Ben or Eli to a consistent if not prodigious weekly score, and hope the elite RB / WR / TE you grabbed in the 2nd round instead can make those points up for you.

 
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ShaHBucks

Footballguy
I would also add that going with a committee is not a strategy I like. Picking the right QB to start every week is tougher than it seems in the pre-season. To me, waiting on a QB means grabbing someone like Romo/Eli/Luck and hoping they can start for me at least 80-90% of the time. Waiting too long and going with a committee introduces another variable to my lineup strategy every week, one I would just as soon avoid.
It comes down to if you know how to play the matchups or not like you're on Fanduel or something. It's really no different than D/st by committee. You might end up with Vick 2010, Cam 2011 or Russell Wilson late last year being your every week guy by being so flexible.
 

nirad3

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
With the RB pool deeper than ever with more teams employing RBBCs, what, may I ask, was the point of this strategy? To see how bad you could eff up a draft? Per your follow-up, you landed guys like Jordy Nelson as your WR1? Ouch. Good luck with that strategy.

 

Dragon1952

Footballguy
I think Andy Dalton especially, and maybe even Alex Smith as a QBBC could be much better than their ADP. In fact, I think Dalton would suffice as a QB1 as he damn near broke into the top 10 last year and now has more weapons and more experience. I also think Russell Wilson will not fall as much as the OP thinks he might. I know we're talking redraft, but he went before Brady, Stafford, Ryan, Romo and Peyton Manning in my recent start-up. Kind of crazy going before some of those but all it takes is one guy.

 

gandalas

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
With the RB pool deeper than ever with more teams employing RBBCs, what, may I ask, was the point of this strategy? To see how bad you could eff up a draft? Per your follow-up, you landed guys like Jordy Nelson as your WR1? Ouch. Good luck with that strategy.
Went RB-RB-RB last year in a dynasty startup - ended up with Foster (rd1), Adrian Peterson (rd 2), and Marshawn Lynch (Rd3). Also didn't hurt myself at WR, as I got Demaryius Thomas (rd4), Colston (rd5), Bowe (rd6), and Desean Jackson (rd9).

This year, went RB-RB-QB-RB in another startup league. Ended up with Trent Richardson (Rd1), David Wilson (Rd2), Brees was there, so had to take him Rd3, Ryan Mathews (rd4) and Montee Ball (Rd5). Even in this league I did not skimp on WRs, with Roddy White (rd5), Colston (rd7), Stevie Johnson (rd8), and Kendall Wright (rd9).

This year, WRs are just so deep that I think you are crazy NOT to go RB early. There are only about 20 RBs I would be comfortable with starting for me...there are probably 30-40 WRs that I could say the same about.

As far as QBs go, they ALL seem to be dropping this year. I know that they are older, but getting Brees in round 3 and Romo in round 11 is just ridiculous value.

 
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nirad3

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
With the RB pool deeper than ever with more teams employing RBBCs, what, may I ask, was the point of this strategy? To see how bad you could eff up a draft? Per your follow-up, you landed guys like Jordy Nelson as your WR1? Ouch. Good luck with that strategy.
Went RB-RB-RB last year in a dynasty startup - ended up with Foster (rd1), Adrian Peterson (rd 2), and Marshawn Lynch (Rd3). Also didn't hurt myself at WR, as I got Demaryius Thomas (rd4), Colston (rd5), Bowe (rd6), and Desean Jackson (rd9).

This year, went RB-RB-QB-RB in another startup league. Ended up with Trent Richardson (Rd1), David Wilson (Rd2), Brees was there, so had to take him Rd3, Ryan Mathews (rd4) and Montee Ball (Rd5). Even in this league I did not skimp on WRs, with Roddy White (rd5), Colston (rd7), Stevie Johnson (rd8), and Kendall Wright (rd9).

This year, WRs are just so deep that I think you are crazy NOT to go RB early. There are only about 20 RBs I would be comfortable with starting for me...there are probably 30-40 WRs that I could say the same about.

As far as QBs go, they ALL seem to be dropping this year. I know that they are older, but getting Brees in round 3 and Romo in round 11 is just ridiculous value.
Well, a startup dynasty is a completely different animal.

 

NYJ

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
With the RB pool deeper than ever with more teams employing RBBCs, what, may I ask, was the point of this strategy? To see how bad you could eff up a draft? Per your follow-up, you landed guys like Jordy Nelson as your WR1? Ouch. Good luck with that strategy.
These were mock drafts I was testing the strategy out on but I came out with Nelson and VJax as my WR1's. Had to sacrifice elite talent somewhere to get depth at RB. I don't think I'll employ this strategy in any money leagues, but might properly test it out in one of my many other redraft formats.

 
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nirad3

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
With the RB pool deeper than ever with more teams employing RBBCs, what, may I ask, was the point of this strategy? To see how bad you could eff up a draft? Per your follow-up, you landed guys like Jordy Nelson as your WR1? Ouch. Good luck with that strategy.
These were mock drafts I was testing the strategy out on but I came out with Nelson and VJax as my WR1's. Had to sacrifice elite talent somewhere to get depth at RB. I don't think I'll employ this strategy in any money leagues, but might properly test it out in one of my many other redraft formats.
Fair enough, but with the overall deep RB talent pool I'm not sure what it told you.

If anything, I'd be curious to see what going WR-WR-WR (in start 3 WR leagues) nets you at WR and RB.

And to the original post, it's most certainly prudent to wait on QB this season.

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
With the RB pool deeper than ever with more teams employing RBBCs, what, may I ask, was the point of this strategy? To see how bad you could eff up a draft? Per your follow-up, you landed guys like Jordy Nelson as your WR1? Ouch. Good luck with that strategy.
These were mock drafts I was testing the strategy out on but I came out with Nelson and VJax as my WR1's. Had to sacrifice elite talent somewhere to get depth at RB. I don't think I'll employ this strategy in any money leagues, but might properly test it out in one of my many other redraft formats.
If I had the best RB core in the league, plus had Eli/Rivers as my QBs, and Nelson/VJax as my starting WRs, I would have considered the draft a mild success. Not exactly hitting it out of the park, but those guys are both perenially low WR1 producers.

 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
andy dalton and alex smith as a QBBC? awful

RB is deep fella's. elite players are not

and BTW kaepernick made Crabtree, not the other way around, IMO

 

butcher boy

Footballguy
Yeah, Alex Smith/Andy Dalton is not what I'd consider an ideal situation. You will be pulling your hair out all year deciding on who to start. You don't need to wait THAT long.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
QB12 is guaranteed to be at worst Romo or Kaepernick. Even if someone hoses you by doubling up before you take one, there's a TON of upside in the QB2 group, and the fact that QB is so deep this year means that almost no one is going to be aggressive on the WW early if an Alex Smith or Carson Palmer, or another QB that goes undrafted starts hot. Everything is encouraging you to wait on QB this year.

 

BigSteelThrill

Footballguy
Redraft Strategies - Waiting on a QB

Yet another reason why 16 teams are the best options for a league. The risk you undertake by just blindly "waiting on a QB" is huge.

 
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Khy

Footballguy
I did a couple of mock drafts testing out a strategy of RB-RB-RB. The plan was to wait until the 8th Round to pick up a QB and I ended up with Eli Manning (QB13) and Phil Rivers (QB15). Ideally, I would have liked a top 12 QB but I'd rather take the risk that one of them falls to me so I can pick up better RB/WR's.
With the RB pool deeper than ever with more teams employing RBBCs, what, may I ask, was the point of this strategy? To see how bad you could eff up a draft? Per your follow-up, you landed guys like Jordy Nelson as your WR1? Ouch. Good luck with that strategy.
These were mock drafts I was testing the strategy out on but I came out with Nelson and VJax as my WR1's. Had to sacrifice elite talent somewhere to get depth at RB. I don't think I'll employ this strategy in any money leagues, but might properly test it out in one of my many other redraft formats.
Fair enough, but with the overall deep RB talent pool I'm not sure what it told you.

If anything, I'd be curious to see what going WR-WR-WR (in start 3 WR leagues) nets you at WR and RB.

And to the original post, it's most certainly prudent to wait on QB this season.
I disagree here... there are maybe 5-6 "lead" backs right now. And probably another 10-15 productive people in a RBBC. Most teams however have 2 productive receivers, and the best teams (Giants, Green Bay, NO, NE, DEN etc.) all produce 3 solid options at the WR position. You're talking maybe... MAYBE... 24-26 RBs that are even start able in a 12 team league vs around 40-50 startable WRs. Besides Calvin, AJ Green and Julio I really don't draft a WR earlier than the 3rd round usually. Once those three are off the board the average PPG plummets and hits this standpoint where everyone is super close to each other in ppg. I'd rather draft 3 of those 26 RBs and hold off and get 3-4 good WRs that aren't elite.

 

Dragon1952

Footballguy
andy dalton and alex smith as a QBBC? awful

RB is deep fella's. elite players are not

and BTW kaepernick made Crabtree, not the other way around, IMO
No, I did not say them in tandem as a QBBC....notice where the commas are. I said Andy Dalton alone has value as a QB1, and maybe even Alex Smith as part of a QBBC. It may sound just as 'awful' to you that way...I don't know. But Dalton was already low QB1 range in just his 2nd yr, and now has more weapons/experience, has shown steady improvement and is currently rated at around QB15 at around the mid-9th round in 12 team leagues. He placed better than Eli the Lessor, Freeman, Russell Wilson last year and just a hair behind Stafford and Luck. Luck, Stafford and Wilson are ranked 8,9 and 10 (according to FBG ADP/PPR consensus) and going 4 rounds earlier.

edited for wrong quote

 
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Instinctive

Footballguy
Redraft Strategies - Waiting on a QB

Yet another reason why 16 teams are the best options for a league. The risk you undertake by just blindly "waiting on a QB" is huge.
This is a good point, but also what VBD is perfect for. I tend to go fairly early on QB, but that's in a 14 team league that also rewards QB accuracy - knowing your league is a huge factor that I don't think we focus on enough here.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Here's Grahamburn's quote from that part of the other thread:

I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.
To which I would respond, I think a major difference between the attractiveness of the strategy this year and in years past is the makeup of the guys in the QB8-14 range. Generally, in past seasons these were mostly clear "tier 3" guys ... one of them might (in fact usually would) finish in the top 5, but you never knew who ... and the remaining guys would be pretty safe bets to deliver tier-3-type seasons. Unless you were in a best-ball league, even picking two guys from that group didn't usually help you much - first, you had to make the right choice at starter each week, and second, even with an above-average performance from your guy you'd still find yourself giving up multiple points per week to the Brady / Brees / Rodgers owners. This year, in addition to the "solid but unspectacular" guys in that range, you've got a significant number of possible home-run hitters ... guys that have a real shot of breaking into that top 3, but who just as easily might finish QB18 or QB20. RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Stafford, and Vick may all be getting drafted in the QB8-15 range, but I can assure you they aren't all gonna finish there. One, maybe two will, but the others may flame out, or may catch fire and turn in Brady-type PPG scoring at a 6th or 7th round price tag.

And in standard scoring leagues, I'd much rather have a more binary-type set of outcomes from one half of my QBBC than an all-but-guaranteed QB12 season. If you catch lightning in a bottle, great, you could very well win your league because of it. If not, you bench him or trade him, ride Big Ben or Eli to a consistent if not prodigious weekly score, and hope the elite RB / WR / TE you grabbed in the 2nd round instead can make those points up for you.
Every year there are adamant "wait on QB" guys who vehemently say they can just "grab a Roethlisberger or Romo later." It's not really that easy. If you're the last guy to draft a QB in a 12 team league, and that QB ends up being QB12 I don't think the strategy was successful.

In my leagues, which are 6 points per TD pass, Romo was QB9 and finished a full 6.1 points per game behind Rodgers. Romo had 7 games with 1 TD pass or fewer, and only 4 with 3 TDs or more. Rodgers had 8 games (5 of which were 4 or more TDs including rushing) with at least 3 TDs.

Brees and Manning were even more consistent with 11 and 9 such performances respectively. Think about that.

You have to hit on just about all of the other players you've drafted to keep up with that kind of production. You lose a lot of points to the guy starting an elite QB with someone like Romo. I know this because I owned him. You look at his end of year finish (QB9), and think "wow, he had a good year, why'd I get my butt kicked every week?"

If we employ this strategy it should be with the intent of identifying the QB who can be drafted 8-12 that will keep up with those elite guys, because they will most likely all be elite. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Manning. Those are the guys we have to compete with. Who can accomplish that feat?

You identified a few "home run hitters" in your post, and those are guys I definitely like, but to keep up with the big boys I think you need to meet a few criteria. Pass-first oriented offense, dynamic offensive weapons to throw to, and elite arm talent. Let's look at a few:

Cam Newton - He's a talented player, but does he have the weapons? He had a high finish his rookie year, but defenses seemed to figure him out a little. He no longer has elite weapons to throw to, and probably will still make too many mistakes to break into the truly elite tier. He'll also probably go too early to be considered as a "wait on QB" candidate.

Russell Wilson - Like everyone else, I really liked what I saw from him. Great decision making, nice arm, and solid weapons. Will there be enough pass attempts in this offense to offset the likely regression in his passing efficiency statistics? He plays in a tough division as well. I can see his ADP rising during August and think he'll go quickly after Cam.

Colin Kaepernick - Similar questions as Wilson with fewer weapons now that Crabtree is injured. Can he hold up for a full season if he runs this much?

RG3 - Injury concerns, and if he starts to show he's healthy he'll be going right around the same time as Tom Brady.

Matthew Stafford - Obviously he's made the leap before to the elite tier, and he likely won championships for several FF players that season. This is what we're looking for. Is he more 2011 or 2012? My projection has him somewhere in between, but if he's going behind these other guys he's a legitimate target.

Andrew Luck - Another player who I feel meets the criteria laid out above. Elite arm, an offense he knows like the back of his hand, some interesting weapons at WR and TE, and he also has a nose for the end zone when he decides to tuck it and run. Can he make the necessary leap?

Those last two are the guys I'll be looking at...

Roethlisberger, Eli, Flacco, Schaub, Vick, Dalton, Palmer, Bradford, Cutler. That's a whole lot of meh to me. You won't be able to compete with the big boys here.

I do have one darkhorse candidate. Josh Freeman. A quiet QB13 finish with 27 TDs and 4,065 yards. He had two back to back horrendous 4 INT performances in weeks 15 and 16 to put a giant black eye on what was a record breaking season for a Tampa Bay QB. Big arm, red zone weapons at WR, vertical passing offense, a good receiving RB, great line, and an improved defense could help Josh make a push toward the top 5 at QB, and he'll likely go much later than a lot of other players.

I'd love to pair him up with Luck or Stafford.

In closing, it's not enough to just say "I'll wait on QB and get the guy ranked 12th" you have to wait and get the guy who drastically outperforms his draft position to compete.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
I also plan on being flexible in my drafts. If my leaguemates all think they can wait on QB and are willing to let Peyton Manning or Drew Brees fall into the middle of the 3rd round or later I'll be ditching any notion of waiting on QB I had coming into the draft.

 

butcher boy

Footballguy
Here's Grahamburn's quote from that part of the other thread:

I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.
To which I would respond, I think a major difference between the attractiveness of the strategy this year and in years past is the makeup of the guys in the QB8-14 range. Generally, in past seasons these were mostly clear "tier 3" guys ... one of them might (in fact usually would) finish in the top 5, but you never knew who ... and the remaining guys would be pretty safe bets to deliver tier-3-type seasons. Unless you were in a best-ball league, even picking two guys from that group didn't usually help you much - first, you had to make the right choice at starter each week, and second, even with an above-average performance from your guy you'd still find yourself giving up multiple points per week to the Brady / Brees / Rodgers owners. This year, in addition to the "solid but unspectacular" guys in that range, you've got a significant number of possible home-run hitters ... guys that have a real shot of breaking into that top 3, but who just as easily might finish QB18 or QB20. RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Stafford, and Vick may all be getting drafted in the QB8-15 range, but I can assure you they aren't all gonna finish there. One, maybe two will, but the others may flame out, or may catch fire and turn in Brady-type PPG scoring at a 6th or 7th round price tag.

And in standard scoring leagues, I'd much rather have a more binary-type set of outcomes from one half of my QBBC than an all-but-guaranteed QB12 season. If you catch lightning in a bottle, great, you could very well win your league because of it. If not, you bench him or trade him, ride Big Ben or Eli to a consistent if not prodigious weekly score, and hope the elite RB / WR / TE you grabbed in the 2nd round instead can make those points up for you.
Every year there are adamant "wait on QB" guys who vehemently say they can just "grab a Roethlisberger or Romo later." It's not really that easy. If you're the last guy to draft a QB in a 12 team league, and that QB ends up being QB12 I don't think the strategy was successful.

In my leagues, which are 6 points per TD pass, Romo was QB9 and finished a full 6.1 points per game behind Rodgers. Romo had 7 games with 1 TD pass or fewer, and only 4 with 3 TDs or more. Rodgers had 8 games (5 of which were 4 or more TDs including rushing) with at least 3 TDs.

Brees and Manning were even more consistent with 11 and 9 such performances respectively. Think about that.

You have to hit on just about all of the other players you've drafted to keep up with that kind of production. You lose a lot of points to the guy starting an elite QB with someone like Romo. I know this because I owned him. You look at his end of year finish (QB9), and think "wow, he had a good year, why'd I get my butt kicked every week?"

If we employ this strategy it should be with the intent of identifying the QB who can be drafted 8-12 that will keep up with those elite guys, because they will most likely all be elite. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Manning. Those are the guys we have to compete with. Who can accomplish that feat?

You identified a few "home run hitters" in your post, and those are guys I definitely like, but to keep up with the big boys I think you need to meet a few criteria. Pass-first oriented offense, dynamic offensive weapons to throw to, and elite arm talent. Let's look at a few:

Cam Newton - He's a talented player, but does he have the weapons? He had a high finish his rookie year, but defenses seemed to figure him out a little. He no longer has elite weapons to throw to, and probably will still make too many mistakes to break into the truly elite tier. He'll also probably go too early to be considered as a "wait on QB" candidate.

Russell Wilson - Like everyone else, I really liked what I saw from him. Great decision making, nice arm, and solid weapons. Will there be enough pass attempts in this offense to offset the likely regression in his passing efficiency statistics? He plays in a tough division as well. I can see his ADP rising during August and think he'll go quickly after Cam.

Colin Kaepernick - Similar questions as Wilson with fewer weapons now that Crabtree is injured. Can he hold up for a full season if he runs this much?

RG3 - Injury concerns, and if he starts to show he's healthy he'll be going right around the same time as Tom Brady.

Matthew Stafford - Obviously he's made the leap before to the elite tier, and he likely won championships for several FF players that season. This is what we're looking for. Is he more 2011 or 2012? My projection has him somewhere in between, but if he's going behind these other guys he's a legitimate target.

Andrew Luck - Another player who I feel meets the criteria laid out above. Elite arm, an offense he knows like the back of his hand, some interesting weapons at WR and TE, and he also has a nose for the end zone when he decides to tuck it and run. Can he make the necessary leap?

Those last two are the guys I'll be looking at...

Roethlisberger, Eli, Flacco, Schaub, Vick, Dalton, Palmer, Bradford, Cutler. That's a whole lot of meh to me. You won't be able to compete with the big boys here.

I do have one darkhorse candidate. Josh Freeman. A quiet QB13 finish with 27 TDs and 4,065 yards. He had two back to back horrendous 4 INT performances in weeks 15 and 16 to put a giant black eye on what was a record breaking season for a Tampa Bay QB. Big arm, red zone weapons at WR, vertical passing offense, a good receiving RB, great line, and an improved defense could help Josh make a push toward the top 5 at QB, and he'll likely go much later than a lot of other players.

I'd love to pair him up with Luck or Stafford.

In closing, it's not enough to just say "I'll wait on QB and get the guy ranked 12th" you have to wait and get the guy who drastically outperforms his draft position to compete.
This is why I'm willing to pull the trigger on a guy like Brees if he falls to the third round. Compared to last year, that IS waiting on a QB. Hitting homeruns on 2 running backs then following up with a stud like Brees is going to be tough to beat week to week.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
I also plan on being flexible in my drafts. If my leaguemates all think they can wait on QB and are willing to let Peyton Manning or Drew Brees fall into the middle of the 3rd round or later I'll be ditching any notion of waiting on QB I had coming into the draft.
This is why I'm willing to pull the trigger on a guy like Brees if he falls to the third round. Compared to last year, that IS waiting on a QB. Hitting homeruns on 2 running backs then following up with a stud like Brees is going to be tough to beat week to week.
:hifive:

 

Backside Pursuit

Footballguy
Redraft Strategies - Waiting on a QB

Yet another reason why 16 teams are the best options for a league. The risk you undertake by just blindly "waiting on a QB" is huge.
Agreed 100%.

I disagree here... there are maybe 5-6 "lead" backs right now. And probably another 10-15 productive people in a RBBC. Most teams however have 2 productive receivers, and the best teams (Giants, Green Bay, NO, NE, DEN etc.) all produce 3 solid options at the WR position. You're talking maybe... MAYBE... 24-26 RBs that are even start able in a 12 team league vs around 40-50 startable WRs. Besides Calvin, AJ Green and Julio I really don't draft a WR earlier than the 3rd round usually. Once those three are off the board the average PPG plummets and hits this standpoint where everyone is super close to each other in ppg. I'd rather draft 3 of those 26 RBs and hold off and get 3-4 good WRs that aren't elite.
If I'm in a league that starts 2 RBs, this seems like the wisest play statistically. Yes, anecdotal exceptions occur but the odds are in your favor using this approach.

In a conventional 2 RB league, I like Luck or RGIII if they fall just enough; Eli or Dalton if they don't. I'm targeting Eli but hoping that Luck or RGIII might fall to me. It'll all depend upon how the draft plays out.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
It depends on the scoring system, In some of my leagues, the difference between the QB1 and QB12 was about 10 ppg. Very few combinations of "waiting on a QB" or QBBC can make up that amount of scoring difference. You know what you are getting in a Rodgers or a Brees. Some of the other options do not have the same track record or consistency. Sure, you MIGHT be able to have either some good weeks or negate some of the advantage of having an early round QB, but there is a lot more risk involved. And as others have mentioned, if you pair the wrong QBs together or the guy you thought would be Top 5 turns out to be Top 15 instead, uh oh. You can be dead in the water by then, as there won't be fantasy start worthy QBs on the waiver wire most of the time.

 

fulton

Footballguy
For late pickers, there is a QB who last year joined an elite club with Peyton and Marino as the only QBs ever with more than 20 TDs in each of their first 2 years. Outplayed Stafford half of the time last year (FWTW).

Going round 9-ish. With major upgrades to the O during the off season.

andy dalton

....ssshhh

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
For late pickers, there is a QB who last year joined an elite club with Peyton and Marino as the only QBs ever with more than 20 TDs in each of their first 2 years. Outplayed Stafford half of the time last year (FWTW).Going round 9-ish. With major upgrades to the O during the off season.andy dalton....ssshhh
And he ranked QB 12 and QB 15 in his 2 seasons. I think a lot of people really haven't run the numbers to see JUST HOW MUCH SCORING they are losing by having a QB 10-12 in their lineup compared to some of the big boys. With some guys throwing for 5,000 yards and 40+ TD, having a QB that doesn't hit 4,000 or 30 should be considered a liability.

 

valence

Footballguy
Just landed RG3 at 8.03 in a MFL10s draft only league. Taking a QB in the first 5-6 rounds is likely a foolish move this season.

 

Khy

Footballguy
If I can get one of Brees or Manning in the 3rd round I will. Otherwise, I'm waiting.
Sure obviously I'll draft either the #1 QB the past two years or my opinion on the #1 QB this year in Round 3. But that isn't likely.

In the end the point I'm getting at is everyone keeps saying "Well the drop off from Rodgers to Eli was a whole 9ppg". Okay that's pretty far but take this into account as comparison. In my league Rodgers averaged 20.8ppg to Eli's 12.7ppg so almost exactly 8. Eli came in at QB14 in my league. Now that that's out of the way.

My top 3 RBs (not even including Trent Richardson) clocked in at 31.5ppg when averaged out together. This combination was Foster, Lynch, Morris even if you take out the luck that I got Morris and instead take my 4th Round pick TRich into play the average is still 29.95ppg.

The next closest team to me came in at 21.5ppg average with their top 3 RBs. With the combination of Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and LeShoure. After that the drop off goes down to 15.1ppg average and the last place team more or less only had Adrian Peterson and was just plugging in guys getting 2-3ppg every week. I'm to lazy to do the math from last year but it's almost identical.

So I'm fully willing to take the 8ppg drop off from Rodgers to Eli and instead gain a 10ppg average on my RBs ahead of the next guy not to mention a around 15ppg average on the league as a whole. Consider that Eli was really only like 4-5ppg below the average QB in the 1-14 range. That's complete insanity on the ppg differential and probably a reason why I've lost 3 games in my past 3 seasons as I always have this gap. Every year besides last year I end up with someone in the QB8-12 range and 2 RB1s or more. Last year I got a little bit more lucky by having RG3 being my 9th round pick and the #1 QB for most of the season. But even with Eli at the helm I still beat most people in my league by an average of 11ppg so it wouldn't have changed anything were it RG3 or Eli. The RBs won me my games.

 
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Toad_1234

Footballguy
If I can get one of Brees or Manning in the 3rd round I will. Otherwise, I'm waiting.
Sure obviously I'll draft either the #1 QB the past two years or my opinion on the #1 QB this year in Round 3. But that isn't likely.

In the end the point I'm getting at is everyone keeps saying "Well the drop off from Rodgers to Eli was a whole 9ppg". Okay that's pretty far but take this into account as comparison. In my league Rodgers averaged 20.8ppg to Eli's 12.7ppg so almost exactly 8. Eli came in at QB14 in my league. Now that that's out of the way.

My top 3 RBs (not even including Trent Richardson) clocked in at 31.5ppg when averaged out together. This combination was Foster, Lynch, Morris even if you take out the luck that I got Morris and instead take my 4th Round pick TRich into play the average is still 29.95ppg.

The next closest team to me came in at 21.5ppg average with their top 3 RBs. With the combination of Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and LeShoure. After that the drop off goes down to 15.1ppg average and the last place team more or less only had Adrian Peterson and was just plugging in guys getting 2-3ppg every week. I'm to lazy to do the math from last year but it's almost identical.

So I'm fully willing to take the 8ppg drop off from Rodgers to Eli and instead gain a 10ppg average on my RBs ahead of the next guy not to mention a around 15ppg average on the league as a whole. Consider that Eli was really only like 4-5ppg below the average QB in the 1-14 range. That's complete insanity on the ppg differential and probably a reason why I've lost 3 games in my past 3 seasons as I always have this gap. Every year besides last year I end up with someone in the QB8-12 range and 2 RB1s or more. Last year I got a little bit more lucky by having RG3 being my 9th round pick and the #1 QB for most of the season. But even with Eli at the helm I still beat most people in my league by an average of 11ppg so it wouldn't have changed anything were it RG3 or Eli. The RBs won me my games.

:goodposting:
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
If I can get one of Brees or Manning in the 3rd round I will. Otherwise, I'm waiting.
Sure obviously I'll draft either the #1 QB the past two years or my opinion on the #1 QB this year in Round 3. But that isn't likely.

In the end the point I'm getting at is everyone keeps saying "Well the drop off from Rodgers to Eli was a whole 9ppg". Okay that's pretty far but take this into account as comparison. In my league Rodgers averaged 20.8ppg to Eli's 12.7ppg so almost exactly 8. Eli came in at QB14 in my league. Now that that's out of the way.

My top 3 RBs (not even including Trent Richardson) clocked in at 31.5ppg when averaged out together. This combination was Foster, Lynch, Morris even if you take out the luck that I got Morris and instead take my 4th Round pick TRich into play the average is still 29.95ppg.

The next closest team to me came in at 21.5ppg average with their top 3 RBs. With the combination of Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and LeShoure. After that the drop off goes down to 15.1ppg average and the last place team more or less only had Adrian Peterson and was just plugging in guys getting 2-3ppg every week. I'm to lazy to do the math from last year but it's almost identical.

So I'm fully willing to take the 8ppg drop off from Rodgers to Eli and instead gain a 10ppg average on my RBs ahead of the next guy not to mention a around 15ppg average on the league as a whole. Consider that Eli was really only like 4-5ppg below the average QB in the 1-14 range. That's complete insanity on the ppg differential and probably a reason why I've lost 3 games in my past 3 seasons as I always have this gap. Every year besides last year I end up with someone in the QB8-12 range and 2 RB1s or more. Last year I got a little bit more lucky by having RG3 being my 9th round pick and the #1 QB for most of the season. But even with Eli at the helm I still beat most people in my league by an average of 11ppg so it wouldn't have changed anything were it RG3 or Eli. The RBs won me my games.
This is where individual league scoring systems come into play. I have leagues where QB scoring can be more than double that of other positions. So you are unlikely to make up the scoring difference elsewhere. For example, the differential from QB1 to QB12 was the same as the difference between RB10 and RB60 or the difference between WR6 and WR100.

 

Dragon1952

Footballguy
For late pickers, there is a QB who last year joined an elite club with Peyton and Marino as the only QBs ever with more than 20 TDs in each of their first 2 years. Outplayed Stafford half of the time last year (FWTW).Going round 9-ish. With major upgrades to the O during the off season.andy dalton....ssshhh
And he ranked QB 12 and QB 15 in his 2 seasons. I think a lot of people really haven't run the numbers to see JUST HOW MUCH SCORING they are losing by having a QB 10-12 in their lineup compared to some of the big boys. With some guys throwing for 5,000 yards and 40+ TD, having a QB that doesn't hit 4,000 or 30 should be considered a liability.
Worst case 6pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 20yds passing, 5.5-7ppg to the top 3QB, 4 ppg to the 4-7 and 1-2ppg to 8-9 QB. More likely case w/ 4pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 25 yds passing, 0-2.5 ppg to 8-9QB, 1.5-4ppg to 5-7QB and 5.5-6.5ppg to 1-4QB. So unless you get one of the top 3 or 4 QB's probably not enough difference to make or break you considering what you might get at RB or WR in the first 2 rounds if you pass on a top 3-4 QB.

As for Dalton, you're actually going to consider his rookie year at QB15 eh. He went from 3398 yds/20TD to 3669/27TD (plus he ran for 4 TD) so you don't think he can improve again with one more year experience and an upgrade in weapons 331 more yds and 3 more TD's. That's all he needs to improve to get to 4000/30.

 

tombonneau

Footballguy
If I can get one of Brees or Manning in the 3rd round I will. Otherwise, I'm waiting.
Sure obviously I'll draft either the #1 QB the past two years or my opinion on the #1 QB this year in Round 3. But that isn't likely.

In the end the point I'm getting at is everyone keeps saying "Well the drop off from Rodgers to Eli was a whole 9ppg". Okay that's pretty far but take this into account as comparison. In my league Rodgers averaged 20.8ppg to Eli's 12.7ppg so almost exactly 8. Eli came in at QB14 in my league. Now that that's out of the way.

My top 3 RBs (not even including Trent Richardson) clocked in at 31.5ppg when averaged out together. This combination was Foster, Lynch, Morris even if you take out the luck that I got Morris and instead take my 4th Round pick TRich into play the average is still 29.95ppg.

The next closest team to me came in at 21.5ppg average with their top 3 RBs. With the combination of Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and LeShoure. After that the drop off goes down to 15.1ppg average and the last place team more or less only had Adrian Peterson and was just plugging in guys getting 2-3ppg every week. I'm to lazy to do the math from last year but it's almost identical.

So I'm fully willing to take the 8ppg drop off from Rodgers to Eli and instead gain a 10ppg average on my RBs ahead of the next guy not to mention a around 15ppg average on the league as a whole. Consider that Eli was really only like 4-5ppg below the average QB in the 1-14 range. That's complete insanity on the ppg differential and probably a reason why I've lost 3 games in my past 3 seasons as I always have this gap. Every year besides last year I end up with someone in the QB8-12 range and 2 RB1s or more. Last year I got a little bit more lucky by having RG3 being my 9th round pick and the #1 QB for most of the season. But even with Eli at the helm I still beat most people in my league by an average of 11ppg so it wouldn't have changed anything were it RG3 or Eli. The RBs won me my games.
I'm picking up what you're throwing down, and obviously you netted out ahead with this strategy last year, but you have to recognize that this scenario requires you to hit on THREE different picks to make up the difference of only having to hit on ONE QB pick that - let's be honest - we know these elite QBs will hit barring injury.

 

Khy

Footballguy
If I can get one of Brees or Manning in the 3rd round I will. Otherwise, I'm waiting.
Sure obviously I'll draft either the #1 QB the past two years or my opinion on the #1 QB this year in Round 3. But that isn't likely.

In the end the point I'm getting at is everyone keeps saying "Well the drop off from Rodgers to Eli was a whole 9ppg". Okay that's pretty far but take this into account as comparison. In my league Rodgers averaged 20.8ppg to Eli's 12.7ppg so almost exactly 8. Eli came in at QB14 in my league. Now that that's out of the way.

My top 3 RBs (not even including Trent Richardson) clocked in at 31.5ppg when averaged out together. This combination was Foster, Lynch, Morris even if you take out the luck that I got Morris and instead take my 4th Round pick TRich into play the average is still 29.95ppg.

The next closest team to me came in at 21.5ppg average with their top 3 RBs. With the combination of Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and LeShoure. After that the drop off goes down to 15.1ppg average and the last place team more or less only had Adrian Peterson and was just plugging in guys getting 2-3ppg every week. I'm to lazy to do the math from last year but it's almost identical.

So I'm fully willing to take the 8ppg drop off from Rodgers to Eli and instead gain a 10ppg average on my RBs ahead of the next guy not to mention a around 15ppg average on the league as a whole. Consider that Eli was really only like 4-5ppg below the average QB in the 1-14 range. That's complete insanity on the ppg differential and probably a reason why I've lost 3 games in my past 3 seasons as I always have this gap. Every year besides last year I end up with someone in the QB8-12 range and 2 RB1s or more. Last year I got a little bit more lucky by having RG3 being my 9th round pick and the #1 QB for most of the season. But even with Eli at the helm I still beat most people in my league by an average of 11ppg so it wouldn't have changed anything were it RG3 or Eli. The RBs won me my games.
I'm picking up what you're throwing down, and obviously you netted out ahead with this strategy last year, but you have to recognize that this scenario requires you to hit on THREE different picks to make up the difference of only having to hit on ONE QB pick that - let's be honest - we know these elite QBs will hit barring injury.
Oh sure, I'm just saying I've done this for several years to the same level of success. Sure it's a good possibility luck plays a big part in it. But it can't all be luck, I can't just every season hit with 2-3 Top 10 RBs using this strategy. Maybe I just have better instincts and analysis ability than I give myself credit for... not sure lol. The year prior to that I had Sproles (who finished #1 in my league) and Foster (finished #4 in my league cause of injuries but averaged top level production that year when on the field). I also had Ben Tate who was great while Foster wasn't in and picked up Kevin Smith on a hunch right before he blew up for that like 200yd 3TD game during Thanksgiving on a sheer hunch. But I tend to make about 20 moves throughout the season with the same exact players moving. Usually my drafted team vs playoff team is only missing 2-3 of my draft picks max.

Obviously no strategy or person is perfect, I've gotten lucky that I haven't been screwed over by all the torn ACLs and stuff that have been going around the league (probably jynxing myself right now). I also tend to draft lower risk drafting Foster in 2011 was by far one of the biggest risks I've taken in the past few years. Otherwise I tend to draft guys with decent floors and good upside. Think... Last year Morris, Harvin and RG3, the year prior Sproles, Graham and Matt Ryan. All of which I drafted slightly before their perceived ADP and it paid off big. They're people I go into the draft wanting and usually draft a round or so ahead of their ADP to ensure I get them. I have a few of those guys I'm looking at right now as well for this season, although my opinions aren't nearly as formulated as they'd be later in the camp season. Right now though I have Charles as #1 overall compared to his like 8-9th ADP I see everywhere else (not as big of a stretch), I think David Wilson ends the season at a top 10 RB and will draft him as such, I'm in a heavy return yardage league so for me Tavon Austin is probably a 3rd-4th round pick right now, possibly sooner if I happen to catch a glimpse of someones notes in my draft that imply he may go higher and I'm really liking Zac Stacy as well for a late round flier. I'm hoping he doesn't get a huge hype train behind him leading up to my leagues draft in a couple months. I'm also targeting Jermichael Finley super high this season, I think he finally has that season everyone knows he can have.

 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
For late pickers, there is a QB who last year joined an elite club with Peyton and Marino as the only QBs ever with more than 20 TDs in each of their first 2 years. Outplayed Stafford half of the time last year (FWTW).Going round 9-ish. With major upgrades to the O during the off season.andy dalton....ssshhh
And he ranked QB 12 and QB 15 in his 2 seasons. I think a lot of people really haven't run the numbers to see JUST HOW MUCH SCORING they are losing by having a QB 10-12 in their lineup compared to some of the big boys. With some guys throwing for 5,000 yards and 40+ TD, having a QB that doesn't hit 4,000 or 30 should be considered a liability.
Worst case 6pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 20yds passing, 5.5-7ppg to the top 3QB, 4 ppg to the 4-7 and 1-2ppg to 8-9 QB. More likely case w/ 4pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 25 yds passing, 0-2.5 ppg to 8-9QB, 1.5-4ppg to 5-7QB and 5.5-6.5ppg to 1-4QB. So unless you get one of the top 3 or 4 QB's probably not enough difference to make or break you considering what you might get at RB or WR in the first 2 rounds if you pass on a top 3-4 QB.

As for Dalton, you're actually going to consider his rookie year at QB15 eh. He went from 3398 yds/20TD to 3669/27TD (plus he ran for 4 TD) so you don't think he can improve again with one more year experience and an upgrade in weapons 331 more yds and 3 more TD's. That's all he needs to improve to get to 4000/30.
You are missing what I intended. I'm not saying Dalton is a poor QB. He's been a great NFL QB and should continue to get better. Could he get another 300 or so yards and 3 more TD? Sure. But that leaves him only 1,000 yards and 10 TD away from the head of the back of FANTASY QBs. And sadly, 4000/30 for a QB these days does not a great fantasy QB make.

Being the #12 fantasy is basically saying you are the worst starting QB in a typical fantasy league. I know it sounds harsh, but do we really want to applaud what would essentially be the worst scoring starting QB in your league? And the other thing (not directed at you specifically) is that seemingly ever player on the boards here gets projected by people to GO UP in production. Not every player will do better than the year before. It is possible he could do worse (although I wouldn't expect him to).

 

bucsbaby

Footballguy
Here's Grahamburn's quote from that part of the other thread:

I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.
To which I would respond, I think a major difference between the attractiveness of the strategy this year and in years past is the makeup of the guys in the QB8-14 range. Generally, in past seasons these were mostly clear "tier 3" guys ... one of them might (in fact usually would) finish in the top 5, but you never knew who ... and the remaining guys would be pretty safe bets to deliver tier-3-type seasons. Unless you were in a best-ball league, even picking two guys from that group didn't usually help you much - first, you had to make the right choice at starter each week, and second, even with an above-average performance from your guy you'd still find yourself giving up multiple points per week to the Brady / Brees / Rodgers owners. This year, in addition to the "solid but unspectacular" guys in that range, you've got a significant number of possible home-run hitters ... guys that have a real shot of breaking into that top 3, but who just as easily might finish QB18 or QB20. RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Stafford, and Vick may all be getting drafted in the QB8-15 range, but I can assure you they aren't all gonna finish there. One, maybe two will, but the others may flame out, or may catch fire and turn in Brady-type PPG scoring at a 6th or 7th round price tag.

And in standard scoring leagues, I'd much rather have a more binary-type set of outcomes from one half of my QBBC than an all-but-guaranteed QB12 season. If you catch lightning in a bottle, great, you could very well win your league because of it. If not, you bench him or trade him, ride Big Ben or Eli to a consistent if not prodigious weekly score, and hope the elite RB / WR / TE you grabbed in the 2nd round instead can make those points up for you.
Every year there are adamant "wait on QB" guys who vehemently say they can just "grab a Roethlisberger or Romo later." It's not really that easy. If you're the last guy to draft a QB in a 12 team league, and that QB ends up being QB12 I don't think the strategy was successful.

In my leagues, which are 6 points per TD pass, Romo was QB9 and finished a full 6.1 points per game behind Rodgers. Romo had 7 games with 1 TD pass or fewer, and only 4 with 3 TDs or more. Rodgers had 8 games (5 of which were 4 or more TDs including rushing) with at least 3 TDs.

Brees and Manning were even more consistent with 11 and 9 such performances respectively. Think about that.

You have to hit on just about all of the other players you've drafted to keep up with that kind of production. You lose a lot of points to the guy starting an elite QB with someone like Romo. I know this because I owned him. You look at his end of year finish (QB9), and think "wow, he had a good year, why'd I get my butt kicked every week?"

If we employ this strategy it should be with the intent of identifying the QB who can be drafted 8-12 that will keep up with those elite guys, because they will most likely all be elite. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Manning. Those are the guys we have to compete with. Who can accomplish that feat?

You identified a few "home run hitters" in your post, and those are guys I definitely like, but to keep up with the big boys I think you need to meet a few criteria. Pass-first oriented offense, dynamic offensive weapons to throw to, and elite arm talent. Let's look at a few:

Cam Newton - He's a talented player, but does he have the weapons? He had a high finish his rookie year, but defenses seemed to figure him out a little. He no longer has elite weapons to throw to, and probably will still make too many mistakes to break into the truly elite tier. He'll also probably go too early to be considered as a "wait on QB" candidate.

Russell Wilson - Like everyone else, I really liked what I saw from him. Great decision making, nice arm, and solid weapons. Will there be enough pass attempts in this offense to offset the likely regression in his passing efficiency statistics? He plays in a tough division as well. I can see his ADP rising during August and think he'll go quickly after Cam.

Colin Kaepernick - Similar questions as Wilson with fewer weapons now that Crabtree is injured. Can he hold up for a full season if he runs this much?

RG3 - Injury concerns, and if he starts to show he's healthy he'll be going right around the same time as Tom Brady.

Matthew Stafford - Obviously he's made the leap before to the elite tier, and he likely won championships for several FF players that season. This is what we're looking for. Is he more 2011 or 2012? My projection has him somewhere in between, but if he's going behind these other guys he's a legitimate target.

Andrew Luck - Another player who I feel meets the criteria laid out above. Elite arm, an offense he knows like the back of his hand, some interesting weapons at WR and TE, and he also has a nose for the end zone when he decides to tuck it and run. Can he make the necessary leap?

Those last two are the guys I'll be looking at...

Roethlisberger, Eli, Flacco, Schaub, Vick, Dalton, Palmer, Bradford, Cutler. That's a whole lot of meh to me. You won't be able to compete with the big boys here.

I do have one darkhorse candidate. Josh Freeman. A quiet QB13 finish with 27 TDs and 4,065 yards. He had two back to back horrendous 4 INT performances in weeks 15 and 16 to put a giant black eye on what was a record breaking season for a Tampa Bay QB. Big arm, red zone weapons at WR, vertical passing offense, a good receiving RB, great line, and an improved defense could help Josh make a push toward the top 5 at QB, and he'll likely go much later than a lot of other players.

I'd love to pair him up with Luck or Stafford.

In closing, it's not enough to just say "I'll wait on QB and get the guy ranked 12th" you have to wait and get the guy who drastically outperforms his draft position to compete.
This is a brilliant post :goodposting:

 

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