JayMan
Footballguy
We all know that, in order to be succesful, we need to find value picks - i.e. choices that will outperform their draft position - and more importantly - players that you will be able to plug into your lineup when your studs are on bye or face a tough opponent.
I think that aspect is very important since we don't want to grab a sleeper if we are not able to insert him in our lineup once in a while (for example a RB that will post 900/5 and that was suppose to do nothing - but you are not able to play him since you already have Portis / Westbrook / Droughns on board)... this has no value.
I have looked at average online projections from a few sites (including FBG obvsiouly!) in order to find a VBD for everyone by assuming FBG scoring and have compared those VBD values with the ADP for these players at Antsports when choosing only the latest serious drafts.
From this, I have looked at 2 players per position:
1. Value pick: a good player (usually starter caliber) that has a very good chance to outperfrom his ADP simply because he's not a sexy pick or is just constantly overlooked in most drafts;
2. Deep pick: a player that is in a good position to post starter caliber points at given weeks in the season / that has enough potential to even surpass your regular starters if all clicks for him this year.
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QBs
Value: Jake Plummer (QB8 vs QB14)
There is no denying that Plummer has a very good supporting cast with Smith / Walker / Lelie? / Marshall / Scheffler - he has cut into the INTs last year. I don't think 3500/25 is out of reach especially if no clear cut RB is established as the goal line scorer.
Deep: Brad Johnson (QB20 vs QB25)
The simple fact that Tarvaris Jackson is light years from being an NFL passer gives all the opportunities to Johnson. Talk about an unsexy pick if there is one... He should outperform guys like Carr / Leftwich / Kitna / Simms that usually are drafted before him... Get him as your backup - and you might be pleasently surprised.
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RBs
Value: Warrick Dunn (RB16 vs RB22)
Another player that gets it done year-in year-out but does not get any love from FFers. Everyone is trying to write him off at the beginning of every season: he's old / he's small / they got Duckett for TDs / they drafted Norwood... yet - he'll post 1500/7 (combined) and you can usually get him as your 3rd RB!
Deep: Tatum Bell (RB22 vs RB26)
Is Mike Bell the answer? he might be, he might not be... but right now eveyone is down on Tatum and this is where you can grab value... he'll get his 200 carries - this means that he'll have over a 1,000 yards rushing - to go along with 250 receiving - and he will find paydirt about 6 times... I dig that later on the draft - I'll have this Bell!
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WRs
Value: Terry Glenn (WR24 vs WR37)
Defenses will want to shut down Owens - they will try to limit Witten's catches - they will want to stop Jones and Barber... and they will leave a CB2 on Glenn... Sometimes a CB2 is a rookie / Bledsoe is salivating already. When you think that guys like Burlseon, Robinson and Coles are picked ahead of Gleen all the time - definite value here
Deep: Sammy Parker (WR40 vs WR60)
A quick look at the Chiefs depth chart will show that their third WR is either be Dante Hall or Craphonso Thorpe... The Chiefs constantly pass for over 4000 yards - give Kennison about a 1000 of these / give another 1000 to Gonzalez if you wish... after all those additions and substractions - you will see that Parker will get close to 800 yards... not bad for a 5th WR...
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TEs
Value: LJ Smith (TE7 vs TE11)
Smith should put the same yardage and TDs on the board than guys like Cooley / Watson / Troupe / Davis... yet, you can get him later on - he's not a flashy pick like the others mentioned above... With Andy Reid calling a pass play on every down - and with Reggie Brown as the "more established" WR - you can see that alot of passes will be dump-offs to Westbrook of check-downs to Smith
Deep: Kellen Winslow (TE12 vs TE16)
Talk about potential... let's ignore the leg injury and Evil Kenivel's impersonation for a minute... wasn't Winslow suppose to go directly into the Hall of Fame? (at least - he thinks so!)... Get him as your 2nd TE (if your league requires one) and if he explodes - you will be pleasently surprised... the sky's the limit, mostly for yardage purposes - and Edwards won't be there until November...
---
Ks
Value: Jason Elam (K3 vs K6)
We all know that we would take our kicker in the last round... but I think you can grab Elam with your previous to last pick (some other guys will already have picked Vinatieri / Rackers / Graham before this) and I'm pretty sure you will get as many FF points as the others... And you will not have to worry about his consistency - compared to kickers that will be picked in the last round
Deep: Jeff Reed (K6 vs K13)
If you get your kicker with your last pick - you will be able to grab him even if you have the overall last pick... yet, with Bettis retireing and only Ward / Miller as redzone possibilities - I think that Reed with get 30 FGs - with many gimmies included...
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There you have it guys - all comments and suggestions are welcomed...
I think that aspect is very important since we don't want to grab a sleeper if we are not able to insert him in our lineup once in a while (for example a RB that will post 900/5 and that was suppose to do nothing - but you are not able to play him since you already have Portis / Westbrook / Droughns on board)... this has no value.
I have looked at average online projections from a few sites (including FBG obvsiouly!) in order to find a VBD for everyone by assuming FBG scoring and have compared those VBD values with the ADP for these players at Antsports when choosing only the latest serious drafts.
From this, I have looked at 2 players per position:
1. Value pick: a good player (usually starter caliber) that has a very good chance to outperfrom his ADP simply because he's not a sexy pick or is just constantly overlooked in most drafts;
2. Deep pick: a player that is in a good position to post starter caliber points at given weeks in the season / that has enough potential to even surpass your regular starters if all clicks for him this year.
---
QBs
Value: Jake Plummer (QB8 vs QB14)
There is no denying that Plummer has a very good supporting cast with Smith / Walker / Lelie? / Marshall / Scheffler - he has cut into the INTs last year. I don't think 3500/25 is out of reach especially if no clear cut RB is established as the goal line scorer.
Deep: Brad Johnson (QB20 vs QB25)
The simple fact that Tarvaris Jackson is light years from being an NFL passer gives all the opportunities to Johnson. Talk about an unsexy pick if there is one... He should outperform guys like Carr / Leftwich / Kitna / Simms that usually are drafted before him... Get him as your backup - and you might be pleasently surprised.
---
RBs
Value: Warrick Dunn (RB16 vs RB22)
Another player that gets it done year-in year-out but does not get any love from FFers. Everyone is trying to write him off at the beginning of every season: he's old / he's small / they got Duckett for TDs / they drafted Norwood... yet - he'll post 1500/7 (combined) and you can usually get him as your 3rd RB!
Deep: Tatum Bell (RB22 vs RB26)
Is Mike Bell the answer? he might be, he might not be... but right now eveyone is down on Tatum and this is where you can grab value... he'll get his 200 carries - this means that he'll have over a 1,000 yards rushing - to go along with 250 receiving - and he will find paydirt about 6 times... I dig that later on the draft - I'll have this Bell!
---
WRs
Value: Terry Glenn (WR24 vs WR37)
Defenses will want to shut down Owens - they will try to limit Witten's catches - they will want to stop Jones and Barber... and they will leave a CB2 on Glenn... Sometimes a CB2 is a rookie / Bledsoe is salivating already. When you think that guys like Burlseon, Robinson and Coles are picked ahead of Gleen all the time - definite value here
Deep: Sammy Parker (WR40 vs WR60)
A quick look at the Chiefs depth chart will show that their third WR is either be Dante Hall or Craphonso Thorpe... The Chiefs constantly pass for over 4000 yards - give Kennison about a 1000 of these / give another 1000 to Gonzalez if you wish... after all those additions and substractions - you will see that Parker will get close to 800 yards... not bad for a 5th WR...
---
TEs
Value: LJ Smith (TE7 vs TE11)
Smith should put the same yardage and TDs on the board than guys like Cooley / Watson / Troupe / Davis... yet, you can get him later on - he's not a flashy pick like the others mentioned above... With Andy Reid calling a pass play on every down - and with Reggie Brown as the "more established" WR - you can see that alot of passes will be dump-offs to Westbrook of check-downs to Smith
Deep: Kellen Winslow (TE12 vs TE16)
Talk about potential... let's ignore the leg injury and Evil Kenivel's impersonation for a minute... wasn't Winslow suppose to go directly into the Hall of Fame? (at least - he thinks so!)... Get him as your 2nd TE (if your league requires one) and if he explodes - you will be pleasently surprised... the sky's the limit, mostly for yardage purposes - and Edwards won't be there until November...
---
Ks
Value: Jason Elam (K3 vs K6)
We all know that we would take our kicker in the last round... but I think you can grab Elam with your previous to last pick (some other guys will already have picked Vinatieri / Rackers / Graham before this) and I'm pretty sure you will get as many FF points as the others... And you will not have to worry about his consistency - compared to kickers that will be picked in the last round
Deep: Jeff Reed (K6 vs K13)
If you get your kicker with your last pick - you will be able to grab him even if you have the overall last pick... yet, with Bettis retireing and only Ward / Miller as redzone possibilities - I think that Reed with get 30 FGs - with many gimmies included...
---
There you have it guys - all comments and suggestions are welcomed...
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