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Redraft Value Picks (1 Viewer)

UKColt

Footballguy
I've been running some mock drafts recently and wanted to start a discussion about players see as good value in redraft leagues this year. I'm not exclusively talking about late round sleepers, but guys that you view as value at any point in the draft.

So, here are a couple that jump out to me as great value at each position based on their current ADP. This isn't exhaustive, it's just a sample of some of the players I like.

QB:

Tony Romo at 8.02 - He's going off the board at QB12. Last season, despite all the issues in Dallas, he finished as QB8 in fantasy terms. Since 2007, he's finished outside the top 10 QBs once, and that was 2010 when he was injured.

Carson Palmer at 14.01 - Alot of garbage time points last year, but now he has an elite WR to throw to and an offense that has regularly produced good fantasy numbers for QBs. If he can stay upright, then he could put up low QB1 numbers.

Others I like: Luck, Cutler and Tannehill

RB:

LeSean McCoy at 1.10 - How can a guy going top 10 be value, you say? Well McCoy is an elite RB in a high tempo offense that is built around running the ball. He shouldn't be making it past 1.05.

Vick Ballard at 5.03 - Lead back in an offense he likes, with coaches that like him and have said that they want to run the ball more effectively. Not flashy, but a solid RB2 that you can draft as your RB3.

Shane Vereen at 8.03 - Danny Woodhead finished last year as RB25. With Woodhead gone, the 3rd down role is up for grabs and Vereen will take over pass-catching duties. New England's WR core is also a mess right now, which may see Vereen being featured more as a receiver. If he puts up anywhere near the same numbers as Woodhead, he's good value in the 8th.

Ronnie Hillman at 13.08 - Alot of us (including me) got burned by Hillman last year, but he's being talked up by the coaches and has added weight in the off-season. In the 13th round, as your RB5/6 then I'd definitely take a flyer on Hillman.

Others I like: Miller, Brown and Turbin.

WR:

Jordy Nelson at 4.11 - The forgotten man in Green Bay. Cobb is the flavour of the day, but Nelson will put up top 15 numbers this year if he stays healthy.

Steve Smith at 6.10 - Getting up there in age but still producing. Still the clear WR1 on this team, and finished in the top 20 last year.

Cecil Shorts at 8.07 - He finished as WR22 last year, even without a good QB. He was putting up WR1 numbers for a stretch last year, and you can take him as your WR3/4 this year. Massive value.

Kenny Britt at 9.04 - He's being drafted in the same area as DeAndre Hopkins. For upside alone, he's worth your WR4 slot.

Vincent Brown at 12.12 - Injury cost him last year, but before that we were talking about him as a solid WR2 in that offense. In the 12th round I'll definitely take the risk that he hits this year.

Others I like: Fitzgerald, Bowe and Nicks.

TE:

Jason Witten at 6.03 - How on earth does he last until the 6th round? Has the trust of his QB and is a reception machine.

Brandon Myers at 11.06 - Manning will throw to his TE, and Myers proved last season that he can catch the ball. He's the TE I'm going after if I miss out on the top 5 guys.

Heath Miller at 13.09 - Health is the huge question, but when healthy last year he was a top 5TE, and finished 4th at the end of the season. If you go TEBC, then grabbing Miller would be a good option, providing he's going to be healthy.

Others I like: Jordan Cameron, Coby Fleener

Obviously ADP will change as OTAs and training camp progress, but I think it's good to get this discussion going early so we can look at risers and fallers.


So, who do you like?
All ADP data based on mock drafts from: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php (I hope it doesn't break any rules to post that.....) and all fantasy point data is from FBG.

 
I've been running some mock drafts recently and wanted to start a discussion about players see as good value in redraft leagues this year. I'm not exclusively talking about late round sleepers, but guys that you view as value at any point in the draft.

So, here are a couple that jump out to me as great value at each position based on their current ADP. This isn't exhaustive, it's just a sample of some of the players I like.

QB:

Tony Romo at 8.02 - He's going off the board at QB12. Last season, despite all the issues in Dallas, he finished as QB8 in fantasy terms. Since 2007, he's finished outside the top 10 QBs once, and that was 2010 when he was injured.

Carson Palmer at 14.01 - Alot of garbage time points last year, but now he has an elite WR to throw to and an offense that has regularly produced good fantasy numbers for QBs. If he can stay upright, then he could put up low QB1 numbers.

Others I like: Luck, Cutler and Tannehill

RB:

LeSean McCoy at 1.10 - How can a guy going top 10 be value, you say? Well McCoy is an elite RB in a high tempo offense that is built around running the ball. He shouldn't be making it past 1.05.

Vick Ballard at 5.03 - Lead back in an offense he likes, with coaches that like him and have said that they want to run the ball more effectively. Not flashy, but a solid RB2 that you can draft as your RB3.

Shane Vereen at 8.03 - Danny Woodhead finished last year as RB25. With Woodhead gone, the 3rd down role is up for grabs and Vereen will take over pass-catching duties. New England's WR core is also a mess right now, which may see Vereen being featured more as a receiver. If he puts up anywhere near the same numbers as Woodhead, he's good value in the 8th.

Ronnie Hillman at 13.08 - Alot of us (including me) got burned by Hillman last year, but he's being talked up by the coaches and has added weight in the off-season. In the 13th round, as your RB5/6 then I'd definitely take a flyer on Hillman.

Others I like: Miller, Brown and Turbin.

WR:

Jordy Nelson at 4.11 - The forgotten man in Green Bay. Cobb is the flavour of the day, but Nelson will put up top 15 numbers this year if he stays healthy.

Steve Smith at 6.10 - Getting up there in age but still producing. Still the clear WR1 on this team, and finished in the top 20 last year.

Cecil Shorts at 8.07 - He finished as WR22 last year, even without a good QB. He was putting up WR1 numbers for a stretch last year, and you can take him as your WR3/4 this year. Massive value.

Kenny Britt at 9.04 - He's being drafted in the same area as DeAndre Hopkins. For upside alone, he's worth your WR4 slot.

Vincent Brown at 12.12 - Injury cost him last year, but before that we were talking about him as a solid WR2 in that offense. In the 12th round I'll definitely take the risk that he hits this year.

Others I like: Fitzgerald, Bowe and Nicks.

TE:

Jason Witten at 6.03 - How on earth does he last until the 6th round? Has the trust of his QB and is a reception machine.

Brandon Myers at 11.06 - Manning will throw to his TE, and Myers proved last season that he can catch the ball. He's the TE I'm going after if I miss out on the top 5 guys.

Heath Miller at 13.09 - Health is the huge question, but when healthy last year he was a top 5TE, and finished 4th at the end of the season. If you go TEBC, then grabbing Miller would be a good option, providing he's going to be healthy.

Others I like: Jordan Cameron, Coby Fleener

Obviously ADP will change as OTAs and training camp progress, but I think it's good to get this discussion going early so we can look at risers and fallers.


So, who do you like?
All ADP data based on mock drafts from: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php (I hope it doesn't break any rules to post that.....) and all fantasy point data is from FBG.
Nice posting. Am targeting quite a bit of the players you mentioned, especially Romo, Miller, Bowe, Fitz, and Nicks.

 
Good post overall . . . but I have to ask. KURT WARNER put up good numbers in Arizona. Other than him, who else has done much of anything at the QB spot for the Cardinals in recent history?

All the issues that contributed to ARI QBs not succeeding didn't disappear just because Carson Palmer showed up. As Chase mentioned in another post, Arizona threw the ball over 600 times last year. They are more likely to throw less than throw more. At this point, Palmer is most likely an average NFL QB. At 4000/22 last year, he ranked in the QB16-18 range in terms of fantasy depending upon scoring systems. How much better are people thinking he will do this year?

The last time he was a fantasy QB1 was 6 years ago. I'm not sure he got better now that he's 34. Given the OL and sacks allowed concerns in ARI, I would think Palmer will be scrambling to save his life, throwing the ball away, getting picked, or otherwise getting beat up this year.

Maybe he's a decent fantasy backup, but that's about it. Also, the numbers he put up to rank #1 over all 8 years ago wouldn't even crack the Top 10 anymore. Essentially, Palmer would have to put up a Palmer season of the past on rocket fuel to be worth starting these days.

I agree, he's probably worth adding to your roster if the cost is cheap, but I think several folks will think he will be the second coming and grab him too soon.

 
Using FBG SSL's ADP list, as it should be representative of this board's overall thinking: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=681850

Quite a few of my "value" guys are those I took for my own SSL team, but I'll try not to let that color my thinking too much ...

QB: Andy Dalton (ADP 90) and Josh Freeman (ADP 100) - I'd agree with your choice of Romo at 8.02 (in a 12-teamer), but in the SSL's his ADP was 64, right about where he belongs. On the other hand, Dalton and Freeman are going QB14 and QB17 respectively, both of which seem far too low for guys who were borderline QB1's last year and have the youth and surrounding talent to be even better this year.

Alex Smith (ADP 122) seems criminally undervalued given his performance history to date and that, whatever else happens in KC this year, Andy Reid will throw the ball a ton.

RB: Chris Johnson (ADP 21) has been moving up boards and so isn't the screaming value he was in the WSL's and PDSL's, but if you can land him in the 3rd round, there's still big upside to be had. Same goes with Chris Ivory (ADP 103) - no way he's still going at RB32 in August, and any and every place I can land him at RB3 I'm grabbing him. The Jets' OL is an excellent run-blocking unit and Ivory is very dangerous when he has room to work with.

LaMichael James (ADP 187) should be the biggest beneficiary of the Crabtree injury. He'll get 8-10 touches a game, can take any one of them to the house, and might be one sprained Frank Gore ankle away from a lot more than that. And I have no idea why Danny Woodhead (ADP 175) is going at RB51 - "gambling" that Ryan Mathews will get hurt is like "gambling" before the flop in Hold'Em with pocket Aces.

WR: Reggie Wayne (ADP 55) / Marques Colston (ADP 57) / Mike Wallace (ADP 60) / Derrick Bowe (ADP 61) - All of them clear-cut #1's, with WR1 potential, on teams with good-to-great QB's (Tannehill being the wild card) that should throw a lot. If I can't land a Calvin / AJ type, I'm happy to stock up elsewhere and grab two of these four as my hybrid WR1/2.

Cecil Shorts (ADP 82) - I'm with OP on this one. Perhaps the most undervalued skill-position player, period. If he stays down in the WR32 range I will own him in every single league.

Miles Austin (ADP 90) - I think his 2012 numbers are his floor, yet he finished WR26 and is being drafted at WR36. That's crazy.

Stephen Hill (ADP 181) / Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP 216) are true boom-or-bust guys with massive upside. As a WR6 option, give me that every day of the week over a pedestrian talent like Malcom Floyd or Jacoby Jones.

TE: Owen Daniels (ADP 92) / Jared Cook (ADP 110) / Martellus Bennett (ADP 116) - No point in reaching for a TE if you can't land one of the big 4, as IMO TE5-15 are basically interchangeable this year. I'll load up on big dogs elsewhere and be happy running a TEBC with any (or two) of these three. (BTW, Witten's ADP in the SSL's was 20, though admittedly that's with a 2PPR scoring system. If he's going anywhere at 6.03, that's a league I would like an invitation to, please.)

Fred Davis (ADP 134) - Achilles tears are tricky things to recover from, but it'll have been nearly a full year come Week 1, and Davis is too much of an athletic freak to pass up on in the TE19-20 range.

 
Witten may be going in the 6th, but he's still TE4. TE is just out of favor this year after a lot of people got burned using a 2nd round pick on Gronkowski or Graham--good seasons, but flaws in both (for Gronk, missing 5 games, and for Graham, not getting the separation from the pack that investment in him required).

I like most of your picks, especially Romo and Shorts.

 
Witten may be going in the 6th, but he's still TE4. TE is just out of favor this year after a lot of people got burned using a 2nd round pick on Gronkowski or Graham--good seasons, but flaws in both (for Gronk, missing 5 games, and for Graham, not getting the separation from the pack that investment in him required).I like most of your picks, especially Romo and Shorts.
Graham was just fine last year as a mid / late 2nd round pick in most formats where he was going that high. A quick glance at one of my leagues (standard 1 PPR / 12 team / 1/2/2/1) had him at 19th overall in points over baseline. He didn't win anyone their league as a 2nd rounder, but no one got burned by him either. And I saw him fall into the 3rd on "TE bias" quite a few times in redrafts last year, where he was a great value pick.
 
Just updating this, a couple more that I like having done some more mocks:

RB:

Danny Woodhead at 11.03 - Ryan Mathews will get banged up, and even if he doesn't Woodhead will still see time as a 3rd down guy. Worth the investment in the 11th round.

Pierre Thomas at 13.07 - Never going to be a top 20 producer, but he'll get touches in both ground and passing game. Solid depth/emergency, and if Ingram gets injured then he will be a decent flex option.

WR:

Stevie Johnson at 8.04 - Top 25 WR every year since he joined the league. Not elite, but he's a solid WR2 at a very good price.

Mike Williams at 9.08 - TDs are difficult to predict, but even without them he finished with 996yds from 63 receptions. Opposite an elite WR means he gets to take advantage of single coverage with a QB who will throw it up for him. Upside of a WR2 at WR4 prices.

 
Robert Griffin III as the 9th or 10th QB off the board is insane. That's my pick for by far the biggest value in the entire draft right now. All of the reports of his progress have been glowing, and as the season approaches, you'll see him rocket up the boards.

Ryan Tannehill with an ADP between QB23 and QB26 is also nuts. If that doesn't change, he's going to be the QB2 on every one of my teams this year.

At running back, I really like Bryce Brown. Chip Kelly likes to spread his workload among several RBs, which makes Brown more than one of the top handcuffs in the game- it makes him a potential flex play.

Lance Moore is a rock-solid WR3 with WR2 upside who is available for WR4 prices.

If Greg Olsen is really being drafted as TE14, that's just dumb. He was TE6 last year, and Carolina still doesn't have anyone else to throw to after Olsen and Steve Smith. I also think that Finley's TDs will regress in a big way, making him a solid value at TE11.

 
Using the FBG composite ADPs:

QB11 Romo - as stated by the OP, good value.

QB14 Ben - was top 10 before his injury

QB18 Cutler - I think he'll throw it 550 times and he's got a legitimate line and legitimate receiving targets this year. My preferred value QB1

QB20 Rivers - historically solid with last year being the outlier and thus the great redraft value

QB23 Palmer - a bit risky with that o-line, but finally with some surrounding receiving talent

QB24 Tannehill - also risky due to experience and less passing attempts than most teams, but if the rubber (potential) meets the road, he'll be a QB1. I like the Wallace addition for him.

Obviously, I'm waiting on QB. I like the value in Romo and Ben, but I really like the value from those other guys.

RB16 Bush - It's hard to get excited about guys that don't get TDs, but he could be 2009 Ray Rice with LeShoure playing McGahee. Stafford loves to dump it off. Running backs caught 105 passes on Detroit last year and none of them were very good...

RB23 Mathews - everyone is down on everyone on San Diego. Woodhead is not a threat. Mathews could easily put up top 10 number if healthy and if the offense isn't totally inept. I have faith in the latter and am willing to gamble on the former.

RB31 Stewart - I think he gets the bulk of the workload as DeAngelo took a paycut and is a year older. He should easily produce RB2 value at RB3 price.

RB36 Ingram - priced as a low-end RB3, I'm willing to roll the dice that he puts it together this year. He finished RB35 last year, so why not?

RB55 Goodson - similar contract to Ivory. He should be on the field when they're losing, and that will be often. Plus, Ivory can't stay healthy. He'll be on most of my teams.

Honorable mention: Dwyer and Moreno - rookies bust a lot and these guys are motivated by contract years.

Gotta run. I'll edit this and finish later.

 
Thanks for the post, but I wonder how much is going to change as we get closer to August.

At present there are zero quarterbacks going in the first round (using FF Calculator average ADP).

Last year Rodgers, Brady and Brees were (on average) first-round picks in both PPR and non-PPR formats.

How much do these QBs creep up? And if they do, does Romo in the 8th become Romo in the 4th or 5th?

 
If I had a 12/13 or 14/15 turn I'd absolutely be taking Rodgers if he's still there. That'll creep up, IMO.

 
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I've been running some mock drafts recently and wanted to start a discussion about players see as good value in redraft leagues this year. I'm not exclusively talking about late round sleepers, but guys that you view as value at any point in the draft.

So, here are a couple that jump out to me as great value at each position based on their current ADP. This isn't exhaustive, it's just a sample of some of the players I like.

QB:

Tony Romo at 8.02 - He's going off the board at QB12. Last season, despite all the issues in Dallas, he finished as QB8 in fantasy terms. Since 2007, he's finished outside the top 10 QBs once, and that was 2010 when he was injured.
I'm absolutely astonished every year at how undervalued Romo is. He still faces the Redskins/Giants/Eagles twice each each season, three teams with mediocre secondaries, but offenses capable of staying in the game (high scoring game = a lot of passes).

Taking a look at preliminary SOS, I have Dallas as #1 for QB (Denver is #2) and Dallas's defense is #30. That screams high scoring games against bad pass defenses. Buy buy buy.

 
I've seen a lot of people able to snag DeMarco Murray as their flex. Obviously it's always a risk now drafting him but for a flex that could end up paying huge dividends.

 
Robert Griffin III as the 9th or 10th QB off the board is insane. That's my pick for by far the biggest value in the entire draft right now. All of the reports of his progress have been glowing, and as the season approaches, you'll see him rocket up the boards.

Ryan Tannehill with an ADP between QB23 and QB26 is also nuts. If that doesn't change, he's going to be the QB2 on every one of my teams this year.

At running back, I really like Bryce Brown. Chip Kelly likes to spread his workload among several RBs, which makes Brown more than one of the top handcuffs in the game- it makes him a potential flex play.

Lance Moore is a rock-solid WR3 with WR2 upside who is available for WR4 prices.

If Greg Olsen is really being drafted as TE14, that's just dumb. He was TE6 last year, and Carolina still doesn't have anyone else to throw to after Olsen and Steve Smith. I also think that Finley's TDs will regress in a big way, making him a solid value at TE11.
:goodposting: Love these calls.

 
Thanks for the post, but I wonder how much is going to change as we get closer to August.

At present there are zero quarterbacks going in the first round (using FF Calculator average ADP).

Last year Rodgers, Brady and Brees were (on average) first-round picks in both PPR and non-PPR formats.

How much do these QBs creep up? And if they do, does Romo in the 8th become Romo in the 4th or 5th?
My guess is QB's won't creep up too much.

Last year we were coming off monster 2011 seasons from Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Cam and Stafford and each of those guys regressed a little in 2012.

In addition, there were very few healthy RB1's for last year's redraft (Foster, Rice, McCoy) followed by a whole bunch of injury/performance question marks (McFadden, CJ, AP, Charles) and rookies.

This year, you've got a plethora of solid RB1 options (ADP, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Charles, Martin, etc.) together with great depth at QB (emergence of Luck, RGIII, M.Ryan) so we're likely to see a return RB-heavy first rounds IMO.

 
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Vick Ballard at 5.03 - Lead back in an offense he likes, with coaches that like him and have said that they want to run the ball more effectively. Not flashy, but a solid RB2 that you can draft as your RB3.

 
QB: I'll probably have Stafford on just about every team. Calvin was tackled inside the 5 yd line 5 times last year. He could easily get back to his 2011 numbers.

RB: Not really value picks but I love Shady and Charles this year. Richardson also if he is back for training camp. I'm also a believer in Lamar Miller. Would rather have Andre Brown than David Wilson at their current adp.

WR: Fitzgerald is the best value at wr IMO. Also like Bowe. Will probably have Kenny Britt on every team. Quiet off season + contract year = lots of value with minimal risk at his adp.

TE: Brandon Myers is the guy I want if I miss on Graham and Gronk. One guy I've heard no one talk about is Zach Miller. He and Wilson looked to develop great chemistry in the playoffs. He was dominant against ATL.

 
What QBs performed best over the last 6 weeks of the season?

There was an article or post here several years ago that pointed out Kurt Warner had a huge ppg over the end of the year he finally took over for Leinert. People were some how not paying attention to him in redraft the next season, but I had him ranked high and got him late. What QBs came into their own late in the year after learning the system and their teammates better? Russell Wilson, but he's already a FF darling. Who could be had? Josh Freeman?

 
What QBs performed best over the last 6 weeks of the season?

There was an article or post here several years ago that pointed out Kurt Warner had a huge ppg over the end of the year he finally took over for Leinert. People were some how not paying attention to him in redraft the next season, but I had him ranked high and got him late. What QBs came into their own late in the year after learning the system and their teammates better? Russell Wilson, but he's already a FF darling. Who could be had? Josh Freeman?
Yeah Freeman should definitely be on this list. His ADP right now is 14.03 which is completely crazy. He finished about 10 points behind Wilson last year in at QB12. If not for those two massive 4INT stinkers in week 14 & 15 he'd have probably come near cracking Top 10. He's approaching the top of my list for underrated cheap QBs for redraft this season. I mean considering they finished 10 points apart him and Wilson are being drafted about 7 rounds apart right now. Which is ridiculous.

I also really like:

Sam Bradford - 13.03: This offense is massively improved from last season. He now has three solid WR prospects and while he lost Steven Jackson the combination of Peed, Stacy and Richardson should prove fruitful for him. Last season he passed for 3702 yards, 21 TDs and 13 INTs. That was with more or less zero receiving talent past Amendola who was hurt most of the season. I'm fully expecting a floor of around 4000 yards, 25 TDs and 12 INTs this year. If they really click though and everyone around him (including himself) stays healthy (which has yet to happen for a whole season) I could easily see something like 4,300 yards, 30 TDs and 12 INTs. He's 25 this year and has the talent for a lot of these QBs 25 is the 'coming of age' date for them.

Phillips Rivers - 12.05 : Just a gut feeling that Rivers come backs this season. Gates seems to finally be healthy again, he has a real WR corps again in Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown and Keenan Allen and if Mathews could put together more than 3 games without getting hurt it'd be nice. He also has Woodhead now who should provide him with a solid 3rd down back.

I don't really like too much out of the others, I'm higher on Tannenhill than most also. But I'm probably taking Freeman, Bradford or Rivers over him and taking him later as the 'QBBC backup'. Until he can prove he can toss a decent amount of TDs it'd be way to hard to trust him in my lonely starter roll. I'm comfortable with the other three being picked as my QB1 though.

 
Wanted to add some other positions in here after I did that post.

RBs

---------------------

Le'Veon Bell - 4.06: If he remains healthy he'll see 300 carries this season more than likely. I don't even care about talent level, 300 carries is 300 carries the kids floor is a mid-RB2. Definitely worth more than 4.06, I expect I'll be taking him in a lot of redrafts this year in the late 3rd rounds.

LaMichael James - 12.03: He's going to get a decent amount of touches this year I think and he has the speed and agility to take any ball he gets to the house. Definitely worth a late round pick.

Andre Ellington - UDFA: I'm probably taking him with the last pick in a lot of my redrafts this year to stash if I feel my draft went good enough to stash someone. Mendenhall and Williams are nothing special and both often injured. I feel like at some point this season he'll be starting a few games. At the very least he's one of my top "watch guys". Last year this guy for me was Alfred Morris who I took in Round 17 in 2 different redrafts in the beginning of August before it was clear who would be starting. Obviously Ellington doesn't have the same opportunity but he has the talent and I think the opportunity will form itself.

WRs

--------------------

DeAndre Hopkins - 9.12: Not that Kevin Walter was that productive in the WR2 role in Houston. But comparing Kevin Walter's talent to DeAndre Hopkins is like comparing Isaiah Peed to Steven Jackson. I'm not sure how much he'll produce but he's going to be an instant 16 game every down starter. So he should out produce his ADP. I like him a little more than Rueben Randle and a lot more than Brown.

Vincent Brown - 11.05: There was a lot of talk about him last year coming in huge as a solid WR2. He never got on the field, he's healthy now and will likely severely out-preform his 11.05 ADP if he stays healthy.

Rueben Randle - 14.05: This is a guy I want in almost every draft I'm doing this season and I'm willing to take him at least 2-3 rounds earlier than his current ADP. Forgetting the fact that Nicks is constantly out several games a year the #3 WR slot on the Giants is historically rather productive. Assuming Nicks misses his standard 2-3 games this season Randle is going to be a steal. The coaches and Eli have been talking him up a ton so far throughout OTAs and Mini-Camp. They really think he's going to massively stepup his game this year. I won't be shocked to see like 8-900yds and 5-6 TDs from him. Which at 14.05 is pretty much armed robbery.

TEs

----------------

Antonio Gates - 9.09: I like him 'slightly' less than Finely. If he's healthy he'll be in the Top 10 easy. Still, he's a steal at 9.09.

Jermichael Finely - 10.09: This is my TE in likely all my redrafts this year and I'll grab him a round early to make sure it happens. Unless someone like Graham, Gronk or Hernandez fall further in a random draft than they should. This is the year that Finely has the Top 5 TE season we've been expecting out of his talent. I won't go to much further into it than that as it's a gut instinct but I think he'll be massive this season.

Brandon Myers - 11:09: Eli loves his TE and Myers is probably the best pure pass catching TE he's had to date. If Bennett finished 12th last year, I expect Myers to be around 10th.

 
Brandon Myers - 11:09: Eli loves his TE and Myers is probably the best pure pass catching TE he's had to date. If Bennett finished 12th last year, I expect Myers to be around 10th.
The Giants haven't produced a Top 10 TE since 2006. In fact, until last year, with Eli at QB, their TE ranked increasingly worse every year since Eli's first full season . . .

2005 Shockey 2

2006 Shockey 7

2007 Shockey 11

2008 Boss 13

2009 Boss 15

2010 Boss 16

2011 Boss 17

2012 Bennett 14

IMO, given their receivers, the TE spot seems more as an after thought these days for the Giants. Myers might creep into the very bottom of fantasy TE1s, but even so that will likely hurt most fantasy teams in standard sized leagues more than help them (you don't want to have the worst scoring fantasy starter as that means every other team would have a scoring advantage at that position).

 
Brandon Myers - 11:09: Eli loves his TE and Myers is probably the best pure pass catching TE he's had to date. If Bennett finished 12th last year, I expect Myers to be around 10th.
The Giants haven't produced a Top 10 TE since 2006. In fact, until last year, with Eli at QB, their TE ranked increasingly worse every year since Eli's first full season . . .

2005 Shockey 2

2006 Shockey 7

2007 Shockey 11

2008 Boss 13

2009 Boss 15

2010 Boss 16

2011 Boss 17

2012 Bennett 14

IMO, given their receivers, the TE spot seems more as an after thought these days for the Giants. Myers might creep into the very bottom of fantasy TE1s, but even so that will likely hurt most fantasy teams in standard sized leagues more than help them (you don't want to have the worst scoring fantasy starter as that means every other team would have a scoring advantage at that position).
I think the point moreso is that Eli gives TEs production beyond what is normally figured of them.

Given the perceived lack of talent in Boss and Ballard, their output from 08-11 was quite good. He produced with an elite talent in Shockey, and pre-injury Bennett was potentially on his way to a top 10 TE finish.

You're right in that the Giants consider it a largely plug and play position that doesn't necessarily demand elite talent to produce, but the very fact that solid production is coming from these players suggests that if you believe in Myers enough, the Giants general recent history with the position is actually a potentially very good thing, as opposed to a negative one, despite the lack of overall statistics. As a backup/co-starter, you could do a lot worse based purely on these numbers.

Alas, I don't believe in Myers enough to put the eggs in there so...

 
Brandon Myers - 11:09: Eli loves his TE and Myers is probably the best pure pass catching TE he's had to date. If Bennett finished 12th last year, I expect Myers to be around 10th.
The Giants haven't produced a Top 10 TE since 2006. In fact, until last year, with Eli at QB, their TE ranked increasingly worse every year since Eli's first full season . . .

2005 Shockey 2

2006 Shockey 7

2007 Shockey 11

2008 Boss 13

2009 Boss 15

2010 Boss 16

2011 Boss 17

2012 Bennett 14

IMO, given their receivers, the TE spot seems more as an after thought these days for the Giants. Myers might creep into the very bottom of fantasy TE1s, but even so that will likely hurt most fantasy teams in standard sized leagues more than help them (you don't want to have the worst scoring fantasy starter as that means every other team would have a scoring advantage at that position).
I think the point moreso is that Eli gives TEs production beyond what is normally figured of them.

Given the perceived lack of talent in Boss and Ballard, their output from 08-11 was quite good. He produced with an elite talent in Shockey, and pre-injury Bennett was potentially on his way to a top 10 TE finish.

You're right in that the Giants consider it a largely plug and play position that doesn't necessarily demand elite talent to produce, but the very fact that solid production is coming from these players suggests that if you believe in Myers enough, the Giants general recent history with the position is actually a potentially very good thing, as opposed to a negative one, despite the lack of overall statistics. As a backup/co-starter, you could do a lot worse based purely on these numbers.

Alas, I don't believe in Myers enough to put the eggs in there so...
Pretty much this, my assumption was Myers was super productive (yardage wise) on a awful team last season. On a good offense that sees a lot of TD opportunities he could be a really solid low end TE1 for a low end TE2 ADP. Eli has turned mostly unwanted scrap metal into serviceable TEs. Myers is a decent talent. Bennett as you say was on his way to a Top 10 finish. The production is available if you can stay healthy and not be bad.

 
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What QBs performed best over the last 6 weeks of the season?

There was an article or post here several years ago that pointed out Kurt Warner had a huge ppg over the end of the year he finally took over for Leinert. People were some how not paying attention to him in redraft the next season, but I had him ranked high and got him late. What QBs came into their own late in the year after learning the system and their teammates better? Russell Wilson, but he's already a FF darling. Who could be had? Josh Freeman?
I'm basically the conductor on the 2013 Josh Freeman hype train, but he had pretty much the worst last 6 weeks of 2012 from any NFL QB not wearing a Cards uniform.

Though, if you want a real deep sleeper answer to your question (or if you're in a 2-QB league), Chad Henne outperformed not just Freeman but almost every QB2 in the league down the stretch from a PPG perspective.

The only other guy from the bottom 16 to outperform anyone from the top 12 down the stretch was Big Ben (26.6 PPG in December), but you and everyone else already knows what to expect out of him.

 
So, why Freeman this year? I started him over Matt Ryan last year against New Orleans and REGRETTED it. TB has good skill position pieces and healthier lineman but Freeman free falled at the end of the year. Doesn't the drafting of Glennon show a lack of confidence in Josh?

I'm considering drafting him but wary of him at the same time.

 
So, why Freeman this year? I started him over Matt Ryan last year against New Orleans and REGRETTED it. TB has good skill position pieces and healthier lineman but Freeman free falled at the end of the year. Doesn't the drafting of Glennon show a lack of confidence in Josh?

I'm considering drafting him but wary of him at the same time.
This is going to seem like a very bad example but no I don't think it shows a lack of confidence in Freeman. I think it's very similar to the Tebow signing in NY last season. They wanted to put pressure on Sanchez to pickup his game. Obviously we know how that test worked out. If Freeman gets the idea and excels because of it though Glennon has no spot fighting for the job. Freeman was actually well on his way to a Top 10 season last year and completely fell apart the last 4 weeks of the year. That said he has a good line, a good arm, two amazingly talented WRs in Jackson and WIlliams and what most people consider to be one of the best young RBs in the league who happens to be a very good receiver out of the backfield. I'm fairly high on Freeman this season and he'll be drafted by me in most of my redraft leagues. Right now he's being drafted extremely low at around QB17. If I can get him around Round 10-11 and pair him with another later round QB I'll be pretty happy with it.

 
So, why Freeman this year? I started him over Matt Ryan last year against New Orleans and REGRETTED it. TB has good skill position pieces and healthier lineman but Freeman free falled at the end of the year. Doesn't the drafting of Glennon show a lack of confidence in Josh?

I'm considering drafting him but wary of him at the same time.
The Bucs drafted Glennon because Freeman isn't a Schiano guy, and from all accounts Schiano is the kind of little Napoleon who wouldn't trust anyone who isn't there on his personal say-so. Maybe it's more complicated than that, but that's my personal cynic's take on it.

I'm an ACC alum, and I've seen enough of Glennon to have serious doubts that he'll ever be a viable NFL starter. He's not real accurate, locks onto receivers, and is frighteningly immobile (which when combined with his physique makes me wonder if he can handle the abuse).

I think Freeman now has not just the pieces in place but the motivation to put up a career year - which says a lot from a value perspective, considering he finished QB13 last year and is being drafted in the late teens to as low as QB20. I suspect I'll wind up owning him more often than not this coming season.

 
Thanks for the post, but I wonder how much is going to change as we get closer to August.

At present there are zero quarterbacks going in the first round (using FF Calculator average ADP).

Last year Rodgers, Brady and Brees were (on average) first-round picks in both PPR and non-PPR formats.

How much do these QBs creep up? And if they do, does Romo in the 8th become Romo in the 4th or 5th?
My guess is QB's won't creep up too much.

Last year we were coming off monster 2011 seasons from Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Cam and Stafford and each of those guys regressed a little in 2012.

In addition, there were very few healthy RB1's for last year's redraft (Foster, Rice, McCoy) followed by a whole bunch of injury/performance question marks (McFadden, CJ, AP, Charles) and rookies.

This year, you've got a plethora of solid RB1 options (ADP, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Charles, Martin, etc.) together with great depth at QB (emergence of Luck, RGIII, M.Ryan) so we're likely to see a return RB-heavy first rounds IMO.
If I can get a McCoy or a Charles in the mid-first and Rodgers or Brees is there in the second then I would definitely see taking them there as a value.

I can't see myself reaching over an elite QB like that to take an RB2 with questions marks like Murray, Wilson or Miller.

WR is so deep I could see myself playing "WR3 chicken" and take gambles on someone like Michael Floyd or Vicent Brown super late.

 
Didn't most of Tampa's line get injured last year? Maybe that has something to do with his poor showing in the second half.

Now, I am more concernd with Matt Schaub given I just picked him up on the cheap to QB2 behind RGIII in a 16 teamer.

Here's hoping...

 

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