Reggie Bush Owners In PPR Leagues (1 Viewer)

[packersfan]

Going into this season, Bush had averaged 5.6 receptions per game. Whatever limitations he may have had as a runner, there's no denying the fact he was a quality fantasy option in PPR leagues because of his heavy involvement in the Saints' passing game. This season, however, the Saints are sizzling and Bush is a complete non-factor as a receiver. He is averaging just 3 receptions per game and after opening the season with 5 receptions in Week 1, he has only 10 in the next four games (barely more than 2 receptions per game).

Bush's fantasy value is tied almost entirely to his role in the passing game. If he's not involved there, he's almost a complete non-factor (though he did have his second rushing TD of the season today). I hope this doesn't turn into a "Bush isn't a good RB" thread. That's been talked about to death. I'm primarily interested in what Bush owners in PPR leagues are thinking about him going forward. Does anybody think he can still salvage his fantasy value the rest of the season or is the limited role we've seen from him in the passing game in the past four games an indication of what we can expect?

I'd also be interested in hearing what Saints homers think about Bush. Has the offense evolved to the point where Bush is no longer needed and Payton no longer feels compelled to utilize him heavily as a receiver?

 

[finito]

He seems to be an afterthought in both the running and passing game. No longer a startable option IMO.

 

[EBF]

He seems to be an afterthought in both the running and passing game. No longer a startable option IMO.

Pretty much this. They're not forcing him the ball like they used to. He's becoming Kevin Faulk.

 

[Johnny Ice]

I'm using Bush as a bye week replacement only, a highly paid decoy.

 

[jurb26]

he has only 10 in the next four games (barely more than 2 receptions per game).

Didn't Bush miss time during this span?

 

[jchap31]

Saints homer, season ticket holder, and Bush owner:

Bush is gonna be feast or famine this year.

Special teams, in general, has been atrocious this year (kickoff coverage/returns, punt coverage/returns) and Bush has been tentative at best as a returner. Don't look for more than maybe 1-2 return TDs.

Rushing - Mike Bell is the short-yardage/goalline back. Pierre Thomas is the the main guy otherwise. Bush is a breather/long down and distance RB. I'd be surprised, provided Thomas and Bell stay healthy, if he tops 5-7 carries/game. I think 10/game is his ceiling.

Receiving - He is being "used" on pass patterns a lot (still) but is receiving less "targets". But it seems he is a better decoy than receiver and is opening things up for the WR and TE underneath by drawing a LB/safety every time. The Saints' "spread the wealth" passing game doesn't help his fantasy value either.

In short, a healthy Thomas and Bell make him irrelevant as a rusher, but he is still being utilized in the passing game, just not targeted. But who can blame Brees when he's hitting WR's in stride 15 yards down the field. Dumpoff to Bush for 5 (he's getting open - that's not the problem) or Lance Moore in the seam for 17?

Ultimate feast or famine player and I'm disappointed as well, being in a PPR league. Payton has defended him till the end, but I'm not sure you pay a decoy 8 mil per season (his 2010 salary- and just my 2 cents).

If you are looking for consistency in a RB1/RB2 in PPR, look elsewhere. I like Bush as a backup/bye week filler but am no longer counting on him as a RB1/RB2.

Pierre is in a contract year as well, I believe. If he wants too much $$, I think they show in the door since our running game is set up like the Broncos, (i.e. plug-and-play). If Bush becomes the "Two Back" of a Power/Finesse backfield (him and Bell in 2010?), then I think I'd rate him a strong RB2.

Sorry for the long post, but this has been discussed on the way to/from the Superdome.

 

[UnknownCoach]

The other receiving options are better than they've ever been. I think Shockey is taking some of Bush's receptions. Meachem is starting to come on as well. The fact that he isnt in the backfield as often is even worse. If the games were closer, he'd be back there a little more frequently. If the Saints ever got far behind, I'm sure he'd be heavily involved. How often is that gonna happen this year?

 

[packersfan]

Good post jchap and thanks. I agree that he may no longer reach RB1/RB2 status in PPR leagues as has been his norm before this season. What concerns me as a Bush owner in a PPR league is the lack of involvement in the passing game could remove the possibility of him being a solid RB3 as well. Given Thomas and Bell's roles in the running game, I think Bush needs to get 4+ receptions per game to be used in PPR leagues and that hasn't happened since Week 1. I'm at the point where I'm no longer confident it's going to happen at all given how well the Saints are playing.

 

[timschochet]

If Reggie Bush was on the waiver wire, I would not pick him up.

 

[jchap31]

The other receiving options are better than they've ever been. I think Shockey is taking some of Bush's receptions. Meachem is starting to come on as well. The fact that he isnt in the backfield as often is even worse. If the games were closer, he'd be back there a little more frequently. If the Saints ever got far behind, I'm sure he'd be heavily involved. How often is that gonna happen this year?

Again, personal observation on my part : Bush is "sprinkled" in this year rather than "featured" as he was in year's past. Thomas/Bell seemed to be the RB when it was on the line this year in tight games.If they start playing fantasy football like last year (which, knock on wood, I hope doesn't happen), I think you are correct in saying Bush would be more involved. Long down and distance, he was the RB.What also is good NFL/bad for fantasy is that there has been very little passing to RBs for New Orleans, since teams rarely send the house on Brees (RB screens combat this, but haven't really been utilized).Best thing, fantasy-wise, is for Bush to be traded to a team where he's in a 50/50 timeshare with someone, like in CIN with Benson.

 

[jchap31]

Good post jchap and thanks. I agree that he may no longer reach RB1/RB2 status in PPR leagues as has been his norm before this season. What concerns me as a Bush owner in a PPR league is the lack of involvement in the passing game could remove the possibility of him being a solid RB3 as well. Given Thomas and Bell's roles in the running game, I think Bush needs to get 4+ receptions per game to be used in PPR leagues and that hasn't happened since Week 1. I'm at the point where I'm no longer confident it's going to happen at all given how well the Saints are playing.

thanks packersfan (I'm also a Greg Jennings owner - so WTF? hahaha)Thus far in 2009, I'd rate Bush a RB3/RB4 tweener. If I had a more attractive WR to flex, I would do so.I think you will see 2 catch games and 8 catch games with Bush. They are no longer "forcing" it to him, as they did the last two years. I remember A LOT of his catches were those RB screen passes, that everyone has since caught on to. He is rarely sneaking into the middle of the field ala Marshall Faulk, which sucks because I think he could do a lot in space.His production depends on what the defense is going to focus on. They drop back covering against Colston and Co., then Bush will have a field day.

 

[jurb26]

Good post jchap and thanks. I agree that he may no longer reach RB1/RB2 status in PPR leagues as has been his norm before this season. What concerns me as a Bush owner in a PPR league is the lack of involvement in the passing game could remove the possibility of him being a solid RB3 as well. Given Thomas and Bell's roles in the running game, I think Bush needs to get 4+ receptions per game to be used in PPR leagues and that hasn't happened since Week 1. I'm at the point where I'm no longer confident it's going to happen at all given how well the Saints are playing.

thanks packersfan (I'm also a Greg Jennings owner - so WTF? hahaha)Thus far in 2009, I'd rate Bush a RB3/RB4 tweener. If I had a more attractive WR to flex, I would do so.I think you will see 2 catch games and 8 catch games with Bush. They are no longer "forcing" it to him, as they did the last two years. I remember A LOT of his catches were those RB screen passes, that everyone has since caught on to. He is rarely sneaking into the middle of the field ala Marshall Faulk, which sucks because I think he could do a lot in space.His production depends on what the defense is going to focus on. They drop back covering against Colston and Co., then Bush will have a field day.

Personally, I find this information very encouraging for Bush. It sounds like teams are focused on him right now and that is why the WR are lighting it up. I would have to think that Ds will start to adjust to the NO WRs as the season goes on. I mean why would they want to be giving up 20 yd passes on a regular basis. I'd think they would rather just take their chances with the 5 yd dump off to Bush and make the tackle.

 

[jchap31]

Good post jchap and thanks. I agree that he may no longer reach RB1/RB2 status in PPR leagues as has been his norm before this season. What concerns me as a Bush owner in a PPR league is the lack of involvement in the passing game could remove the possibility of him being a solid RB3 as well. Given Thomas and Bell's roles in the running game, I think Bush needs to get 4+ receptions per game to be used in PPR leagues and that hasn't happened since Week 1. I'm at the point where I'm no longer confident it's going to happen at all given how well the Saints are playing.

thanks packersfan (I'm also a Greg Jennings owner - so WTF? hahaha)Thus far in 2009, I'd rate Bush a RB3/RB4 tweener. If I had a more attractive WR to flex, I would do so.I think you will see 2 catch games and 8 catch games with Bush. They are no longer "forcing" it to him, as they did the last two years. I remember A LOT of his catches were those RB screen passes, that everyone has since caught on to. He is rarely sneaking into the middle of the field ala Marshall Faulk, which sucks because I think he could do a lot in space.His production depends on what the defense is going to focus on. They drop back covering against Colston and Co., then Bush will have a field day.

Personally, I find this information very encouraging for Bush. It sounds like teams are focused on him right now and that is why the WR are lighting it up. I would have to think that Ds will start to adjust to the NO WRs as the season goes on. I mean why would they want to be giving up 20 yd passes on a regular basis. I'd think they would rather just take their chances with the 5 yd dump off to Bush and make the tackle.

This is what remains to be seen. I wouldn't say focused on him, but defenses have to account for him every time he hits the field. Like I stated before, he's getting open on pass plays, but why settle for the short gain with the WRs getting open so quick? Also, this is the 1st year we've had a great, healthy receiving TE (Shockey) and not a journeyman starter (Eric Johnson, Billy Miller). Shockey is what I'd call a "Bush killer" as Brees looks his way A LOT on the under 10 stuff.Lance Moore has been banged up and is now returning to 100% and Robert Meachem, especially after today, has been gaining the confidence of Brees. I can't picture ANY team in the NFL with 4 good CBs covering Colston, Devery Henderson, Moore, Meachem every game, so Bush's stats will depend on pass rush/coverage tactics vs. the WRsI think Bush will have some decent games, but I don't see any more 80 catch years in New Orleans, barring injuries and the effects of Free Agency of course. Moore is in a contract year.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I asked in F&L dynasty thread was M.Austin for him a good deal. (to land Bush)

I really believe Austin will have more value than him moving foward by a shear involvement in the offense.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Reggie Bush is not as advertised. Never was. He was being force-fed, despite being horrible. Now he is not, and the Saints are better than ever. They will not go back to force-feeding Bush now. They have finally moved on. You should too.

I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football.", and that he was "underrated" going into this year. Well, if you suck long enough, you will eventually get pulled for guys who are doing more with less (like every back on the team for example). Even if you have a billion dollar contract and high first round status.

 

[jchap31]

I asked in F&L dynasty thread was M.Austin for him a good deal. (to land Bush)I really believe Austin will have more value than him moving foward by a shear involvement in the offense.

Not sure if I'd trade him for Austin. Bush, at least, is a somewhat proven commodity being hampered by ridiculous talent on the Saints' offense. I wouldn't sell in a dynasty, because if Bell or Thomas get injured, Bush is a borderline RB2 and is a strong RB2 if the Saints trade him.

 

[packersfan]

I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football."

That's because it was true.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I watched almost all of that game, and I was impressed not by the reduction in targets but the reduction in snaps. Moore plays the same position as Reggie in a lot of sets. So it's all of the above and less snaps killing his fantasy value.

Watching the Saints leaves me with the feeling that this team has barely scratched the surfac. Other than the struggle with the Jets where they never trailed and mostly led by two scores they are unchallenged. My hunch is Reggie gets much more involved if and when the games become more challenging. The Saints haven't been forced to play all their cards yet. Don't fool yourself. Reggie is still a very dangerous option, a wild card in a seriously stacked deck.

 

[jchap31]

Reggie Bush is not as advertised. Never was. He was being force-fed, despite being horrible. Now he is not, and the Saints are better than ever. They will not go back to force-feeding Bush now. They have finally moved on. You should too.I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football.", and that he was "underrated" going into this year. Well, if you suck long enough, you will eventually get pulled for guys who are doing more with less (like every back on the team for example). Even if you have a billion dollar contract and high first round status.

This is also a Saints homer joke. Reggie did exactly what he was drafted for - sell jerseys (he was #1 jersey sold in 2006), sell tickets (waiting list now), get media attention to N.O. - a big "Mission Accomplished" in my book.Now Payton has to deal with the aftermath. Bush is a talent, but we have "better" options on offense and he has a high price tag. I'd expect either a huge salary cut or trade after this year for Bush. What will his ego allow?

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I asked in F&L dynasty thread was M.Austin for him a good deal. (to land Bush)I really believe Austin will have more value than him moving foward by a shear involvement in the offense.

Not sure if I'd trade him for Austin. Bush, at least, is a somewhat proven commodity being hampered by ridiculous talent on the Saints' offense. I wouldn't sell in a dynasty, because if Bell or Thomas get injured, Bush is a borderline RB2 and is a strong RB2 if the Saints trade him.

Proven or Unproven Bush is being fazed out and you see what he really is. He isnt even on Leon Washington level. Im actually glad i kept Austin over Bush and this is in dynasty. Even though i wont be playing him his value is higher to me than Bush's.

 

[jchap31]

I asked in F&L dynasty thread was M.Austin for him a good deal. (to land Bush)I really believe Austin will have more value than him moving foward by a shear involvement in the offense.

Not sure if I'd trade him for Austin. Bush, at least, is a somewhat proven commodity being hampered by ridiculous talent on the Saints' offense. I wouldn't sell in a dynasty, because if Bell or Thomas get injured, Bush is a borderline RB2 and is a strong RB2 if the Saints trade him.

Proven or Unproven Bush is being fazed out and you see what he really is. He isnt even on Leon Washington level. Im actually glad i kept Austin over Bush and this is in dynasty. Even though i wont be playing him his value is higher to me than Bush's.

I'd agree and say Austin's value is higher now/this year. Not so sure in the future. Big D hasn't found their #1 WR yet.

 

[BINGBING]

Bottom line IMO. The Saints D is the problem. Last year they were behind in a lot of games and that is when Bush got his receptions. He was the quick dump off to get a positive gain and get out of bounds to stop the clock. That doesn't happen now that you are beating down 5-0 teams.

 

[jchap31]

I watched almost all of that game, and I was impressed not by the reduction in targets but the reduction in snaps. Moore plays the same position as Reggie in a lot of sets. So it's all of the above and less snaps killing his fantasy value.Watching the Saints leaves me with the feeling that this team has barely scratched the surfac. Other than the struggle with the Jets where they never trailed and mostly led by two scores they are unchallenged. My hunch is Reggie gets much more involved if and when the games become more challenging. The Saints haven't been forced to play all their cards yet. Don't fool yourself. Reggie is still a very dangerous option, a wild card in a seriously stacked deck.

I've noticed this over the last 3 years : it seems on the Monday Night/primetime games, Bush seems to be more involved.

 

[jchap31]

Bottom line IMO. The Saints D is the problem. Last year they were behind in a lot of games and that is when Bush got his receptions. He was the quick dump off to get a positive gain and get out of bounds to stop the clock. That doesn't happen now that you are beating down 5-0 teams.

I disagree. We still have a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs and he's out there. I'd say the development of Lance Moore and the addition of Shockey have led more to Bush's demise than the lack of garbage time.

 

[gianmarco]

Paging TheFanatic......

 

[BINGBING]

Bottom line IMO. The Saints D is the problem. Last year they were behind in a lot of games and that is when Bush got his receptions. He was the quick dump off to get a positive gain and get out of bounds to stop the clock. That doesn't happen now that you are beating down 5-0 teams.

I disagree. We still have a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs and he's out there. I'd say the development of Lance Moore and the addition of Shockey have led more to Bush's demise than the lack of garbage time.

You must have missed where I said he's the sideline option WHEN THEY ARE TRAILING. He is the guy Brees hit last year for positive yardage to get out of bounds when they were running a time conservative offense. 2nd and 3rd and longs are completely different from a quick read to save time on offense when the clock is your enemy and you dump off to the RB to stop the clock rather than just throw it away.

 

[jchap31]

Bottom line IMO. The Saints D is the problem. Last year they were behind in a lot of games and that is when Bush got his receptions. He was the quick dump off to get a positive gain and get out of bounds to stop the clock. That doesn't happen now that you are beating down 5-0 teams.

I disagree. We still have a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs and he's out there. I'd say the development of Lance Moore and the addition of Shockey have led more to Bush's demise than the lack of garbage time.

You must have missed where I said he's the sideline option WHEN THEY ARE TRAILING. He is the guy Brees hit last year for positive yardage to get out out of bounds when they were running a time conservative offense. 2nd and 3rd and longs are completely different from a quick read to save time on offense when the clock is your enemy and you make a quick read and dump off to the RB to stop the clock rather than just throw it away.

No, I heard you loud and clear. I didn't say lack of garbage time was irrelevant, just that the other two were bigger factors.Lance Moore is now and was in 2008 the clutch/2-minute receiver, not Bush (as he was in 06-07).

A viable slot WR has killed the receiving RB for the Saints.

 

[BINGBING]

Bottom line IMO. The Saints D is the problem. Last year they were behind in a lot of games and that is when Bush got his receptions. He was the quick dump off to get a positive gain and get out of bounds to stop the clock. That doesn't happen now that you are beating down 5-0 teams.

I disagree. We still have a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs and he's out there. I'd say the development of Lance Moore and the addition of Shockey have led more to Bush's demise than the lack of garbage time.

You must have missed where I said he's the sideline option WHEN THEY ARE TRAILING. He is the guy Brees hit last year for positive yardage to get out out of bounds when they were running a time conservative offense. 2nd and 3rd and longs are completely different from a quick read to save time on offense when the clock is your enemy and you make a quick read and dump off to the RB to stop the clock rather than just throw it away.

No, I heard you loud and clear. I didn't say lack of garbage time was irrelevant, just that the other two were bigger factors.Lance Moore is now and was in 2008 the clutch/2-minute receiver, not Bush (as he was in 06-07).

A viable slot WR has killed the receiving RB for the Saints.

But Moore wasn't a factor until this week and it didn't help Bush, and even with 79 catches from Moore last year Bush still had 120 fantasy points from receptions. Either Brees doesn't have to check down to the slot or RB as much this year (because the total receptions to those spots are WAAAAY down this year) or he doesn't feel like he needs to check down as much with Colston being back. Maybe both of us are wrong and Colston is the reason for the drop off.

Either way I win cuz I have Colston, Bush, and Moore in my dynasty league, and if one gets hurt the other is sure to get the catches.

 

[jchap31]

Bottom line IMO. The Saints D is the problem. Last year they were behind in a lot of games and that is when Bush got his receptions. He was the quick dump off to get a positive gain and get out of bounds to stop the clock. That doesn't happen now that you are beating down 5-0 teams.

I disagree. We still have a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs and he's out there. I'd say the development of Lance Moore and the addition of Shockey have led more to Bush's demise than the lack of garbage time.

You must have missed where I said he's the sideline option WHEN THEY ARE TRAILING. He is the guy Brees hit last year for positive yardage to get out out of bounds when they were running a time conservative offense. 2nd and 3rd and longs are completely different from a quick read to save time on offense when the clock is your enemy and you make a quick read and dump off to the RB to stop the clock rather than just throw it away.

No, I heard you loud and clear. I didn't say lack of garbage time was irrelevant, just that the other two were bigger factors.Lance Moore is now and was in 2008 the clutch/2-minute receiver, not Bush (as he was in 06-07).

A viable slot WR has killed the receiving RB for the Saints.

But Moore wasn't a factor until this week and it didn't help Bush, and even with 79 catches from Moore last year Bush still had 120 fantasy points from receptions. Either Brees doesn't have to check down to the slot or RB as much this year (because the total receptions to those spots are WAAAAY down this year) or he doesn't feel like he needs to check down as much with Colston being back. Maybe both of us are wrong and Colston is the reason for the drop off.

Either way I win cuz I have Colston, Bush, and Moore in my dynasty league, and if one gets hurt the other is sure to get the catches.

hahaha. when in doubt, cover ALL your bases! I agree, it seems this year that Brees is not dumping off hardly at all. Shockey has really hurt Bush's value in the area.

In short, 2009 = BUST for Bush. 2010, who knows. Moore might not be here. I hope to hell he is, but $$ might be greater elsewhere.

 

[Sweetness_34]

In re-draft non PPR leagues, he is on the WW and no one wants him

In re-draft PPR leagues, where I have him, I only start him at Flex when I have to because of bye weeks. I started Kenny Britt before him the last time.

In dynasty leagues, pray that he gets his burst/speed back and maybe goes to a team that will use as a catching RB....the Saints have just too many weapons so other than Brees, Colston and maybe Pierre, no one is guaranteed on the Saints to be consistently good.

 

[Retire_Already_Oscar]

I still view him as a RB2 in PPR dynasties. He's not a traditional RB so I think his role long term there is secure. Moreso iMO than Pierre or Mike Bell.

Lance Moore & him will fight for stats all year.

 

[Thanatos]

In my main money league, Reggie has been demoted to my RB4 and will only be played as a bye week filler behind DeAngelo, Ronnie Brown, and an awesome 16th round late flyer on Cadillac Williams in my flex spot.

 

[John Zaleski]

So concerned, he was on my Do Not Draft List this year.

 

[Gadabout]

His downfall is simple: Everybody is healthy.

 

[rvmblack]

Going into this season, Bush had averaged 5.6 receptions per game. Whatever limitations he may have had as a runner, there's no denying the fact he was a quality fantasy option in PPR leagues because of his heavy involvement in the Saints' passing game. This season, however, the Saints are sizzling and Bush is a complete non-factor as a receiver. He is averaging just 3 receptions per game and after opening the season with 5 receptions in Week 1, he has only 10 in the next four games (barely more than 2 receptions per game). Bush's fantasy value is tied almost entirely to his role in the passing game. If he's not involved there, he's almost a complete non-factor (though he did have his second rushing TD of the season today). I hope this doesn't turn into a "Bush isn't a good RB" thread. That's been talked about to death. I'm primarily interested in what Bush owners in PPR leagues are thinking about him going forward. Does anybody think he can still salvage his fantasy value the rest of the season or is the limited role we've seen from him in the passing game in the past four games an indication of what we can expect?I'd also be interested in hearing what Saints homers think about Bush. Has the offense evolved to the point where Bush is no longer needed and Payton no longer feels compelled to utilize him heavily as a receiver?

Hes not a good NFL, thus why the Saints have decided not to use him

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football."

That's because it was true.

Ah, but the faulty logic is that previous "good stats" will always be there going forward. FUTURE stats are the only thing that really matters (in the pre-season).I kept saying that the Saints will stop using him because he sucks. They kept saying, "They have used him so far, and they will continue to.". But eventually, the better players play, and the scrubs sit. Sometimes it takes a while for the high pedigree, high dollar guys, but eventually it happens.

 

[TPW]

In redraft, yes, I'd be concerned. Excluding injury to another Saints player, it looks like his participation in the present offense is going to be relatively limited this year as the ball is spread around. This is very similar to the fantasy prospects of most offensive players not named Brady or Moss on the high scoring 2007 Patriots.

In dynasty, not so much. If he's an eight million dollar a year decoy, then he'll be traded away when his contract is up and have a chance to succeed elsewhere. If it's simply a matter of the ball being evenly distributed and/or the Saints being cautious with him this season following his microfracture surgery, then he'll be re-signed and have a chance to contribute for years to come as he is only 24 years old and still has loads of raw physical talent.

 

[packersfan]

I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football."

That's because it was true.

Ah, but the faulty logic is that previous "good stats" will always be there going forward. FUTURE stats are the only thing that really matters (in the pre-season).I kept saying that the Saints will stop using him because he sucks. They kept saying, "They have used him so far, and they will continue to.". But eventually, the better players play, and the scrubs sit. Sometimes it takes a while for the high pedigree, high dollar guys, but eventually it happens.

If you predicted before this season that Bush would go from nearly 6 receptions per game to 2-3 this season, then I give you props for the (to this point) accurate projection. I didn't see that coming because there was an overwhelming amount of data in Bush's career which indicated that, despite the flaws he has as a runner, his role in the passing game would enable him to generate quality value in PPR leagues. After five games, it's starting to appear that I made a bad call on Bush and what his value would be in PPR leagues this season.

 

[KellysHeroes]

The TD saved his FF Day for me.... but I'm going to look for better options.

My Hope is they plan on using him more later in the season. But With Bell & PT playing good, Bush is becoming the 3rd Option at RB.

 

[TheFanatic]

I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football."

That's because it was true.

Ah, but the faulty logic is that previous "good stats" will always be there going forward. FUTURE stats are the only thing that really matters (in the pre-season).I kept saying that the Saints will stop using him because he sucks. They kept saying, "They have used him so far, and they will continue to.". But eventually, the better players play, and the scrubs sit. Sometimes it takes a while for the high pedigree, high dollar guys, but eventually it happens.

This is where fantasy owners can't see that this game is based on what NFL teams do. And NFL teams don't care about your fantasy stats. They care about winning games. A guy could be a fantasy monster but if he isn't doing the things that help teams win games then he won't be playing as much and thus there go his fantasy production.Bush had a very mediocre YPC and thus has been phased out of that aspect of the game after being given ample chances to improve in that area. Every year we heard that he worked hard in the offseason to get better at that and every year he comes in and underwhelms. The guy has a nose for the endzone but that's about it. I believe someone did a comparison of his receiving skills against other RB's and the thing he had more than the rest was targets and opportunity but what he did after he caught the ball was not all that impressive for the hype.The question becomes is will he even be a Saint next year? He's the 4th highest paid RB this year at something like $8 million. With how little they are using him in that offense do you foresee him back next year? If he takes a pay cut I can see him coming back but I think he's gonna have to take a big paycut.

 

[packersfan]

I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football."

That's because it was true.

Ah, but the faulty logic is that previous "good stats" will always be there going forward. FUTURE stats are the only thing that really matters (in the pre-season).I kept saying that the Saints will stop using him because he sucks. They kept saying, "They have used him so far, and they will continue to.". But eventually, the better players play, and the scrubs sit. Sometimes it takes a while for the high pedigree, high dollar guys, but eventually it happens.

This is where fantasy owners can't see that this game is based on what NFL teams do.

I would counter that by saying that, prior to this season, Bush was a strong example of fantasy owners understanding what NFL teams do and utilizing that to their advantage (primarily in PPR leagues). Bush's flaws as a runner have been evident for some time but the fact is he had a significant role in the Saints' passing game. As a result, his value in PPR formats was very high. It stood to reason that would continue even if he was phased out of the running game. I'm a huge Pierre Thomas fan and I argued in this forum last season that he deserved a larger role as a runner than Bush. So that doesn't surprise me at all that we've seen that happen with both Thomas and Bell. What has surprised me is the significant decline in reception production that Bush has had. Again, if there were people in this forum who predicted that Bush's receptions would go from an average of nearly 6 per game to the 2-3 they've been at lately than I congratulate them on what appears to be a terrific prediction thus far. Speaking for myself, I didn't expect that to happen and I'm surprised that it has thus far.

 

[p00h]

If Reggie Bush was on the waiver wire, I would not pick him up.

While I'm a huge proponent of stashing as many rbs on the roster as possible, I truly believe, after yesterday's game which I got to watch in its entirety as I'm local to the giants, that he is useless. TO say he'll be feast of famine is also misleading, unless you consider 30 yards and a td every third week to be feast. Was holding onto him in a league where return yards/tds pay off, and even there the production is ZERO. Not minimal, but ZERO. He is useless in redraft, not sure how much he's worth in dynasty/keepers, but my guess is very little. Unless/until he changes teams and a new team wants to utlilze him differently...

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football."

That's because it was true.

Ah, but the faulty logic is that previous "good stats" will always be there going forward. FUTURE stats are the only thing that really matters (in the pre-season).I kept saying that the Saints will stop using him because he sucks. They kept saying, "They have used him so far, and they will continue to.". But eventually, the better players play, and the scrubs sit. Sometimes it takes a while for the high pedigree, high dollar guys, but eventually it happens.

If you predicted before this season that Bush would go from nearly 6 receptions per game to 2-3 this season, then I give you props for the (to this point) accurate projection. I didn't see that coming because there was an overwhelming amount of data in Bush's career which indicated that, despite the flaws he has as a runner, his role in the passing game would enable him to generate quality value in PPR leagues. After five games, it's starting to appear that I made a bad call on Bush and what his value would be in PPR leagues this season.

I predicted it two years ago in a "sell high" post in the pre-season. I and others predicted it prior to this season. In many posts I argued that EVEN IN THE PASSING GAME, his contributions were being vastly over-rated. Yes, he was catching a lot of balls, but he wasn't really helping the offense.Among the many things I pointed out was that the offense scored more points when he wasn't in the game, and that all of his competition was doing more per TARGET than he was. Forget running where it is obvious he is inferior, but in the passing game he wasn't getting it done either. Thomas and others were breaking more big gains (supposedly Bush's specialty) than Bush was by far (when you broke it down per target, which I did). People call him a wild card, and say the defense has to account for him at all times when exactly the opposite is true. The offense is more predictable when he is featured, and the defense don't bother with any special attention on him. They are generally happy when he gets the ball because it means a nice 6 yard catch on a 3rd and 7.Bottom line is that the other guys are just as good if not better in the passing game (in most situations), and MUCH better in the running game (in all situations). Plus, when the team has a viable RUNNING threat in the backfield, the offense is less predictable and more effective.I'm not strictly patting myself on the back here. I'm trying to make the point that current and historical stats are NOT all that matters as many seem to believe. If you want to be able to PREDICT what's going to happen, you have to look a little deeper. I almost always down on low "effectiveness per opportunity" guys for this reason unless there are very good reasons to explain it away. Saved me from a lot of dynasty pitfalls.

 

[Todem]

Dynasty Hold

Redraft - ??? They way Saints backs get hurt...I would try to be patient. Bell and Thomas have already showed they are somewhat fragile this season. I don't think you can cut a guy who plays in the best offense in the league at this point for anything that may be on your waiver unless your playing with minnows (which most of us do in at least one league ) and there are some gems still out there.

 

[packersfan]

I'm not strictly patting myself on the back here. I'm trying to make the point that current and historical stats are NOT all that matters as many seem to believe. If you want to be able to PREDICT what's going to happen, you have to look a little deeper. I almost always down on low "effectiveness per opportunity" guys for this reason unless there are very good reasons to explain it away. Saved me from a lot of dynasty pitfalls.

As I said, if you made the prediction that Bush's role in the passing game would decline significantly this season, then I applaud you. It was a great call on your part. I'm simply saying that there was a wealth of evidence which existed which supported the belief that Bush would have quality value in PPR leagues. Three seasons is a pretty large sample size. So I don't think it was out of the question to presume that Bush's role would remain similar to what it had been in the past. To this point, that call was off the mark obviously but I don't believe it lacked a basis in fact by any means.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I'm not strictly patting myself on the back here. I'm trying to make the point that current and historical stats are NOT all that matters as many seem to believe. If you want to be able to PREDICT what's going to happen, you have to look a little deeper. I almost always down on low "effectiveness per opportunity" guys for this reason unless there are very good reasons to explain it away. Saved me from a lot of dynasty pitfalls.

As I said, if you made the prediction that Bush's role in the passing game would decline significantly this season, then I applaud you. It was a great call on your part. I'm simply saying that there was a wealth of evidence which existed which supported the belief that Bush would have quality value in PPR leagues. Three seasons is a pretty large sample size. So I don't think it was out of the question to presume that Bush's role would remain similar to what it had been in the past. To this point, that call was off the mark obviously but I don't believe it lacked a basis in fact by any means.

There are always two sides to every coin. Previous results are probably the #1 indicator of what will happen in the future for FF. But there are also sometimes valid reasons to go away from those previous results when making your predictions, and some folks simply discount any possibility that things will change considerably. Obviously, finding the APPROPRIATE times to go away from the previous results is one of the things that makes FF fun.

 

[Doug B]

What also is good NFL/bad for fantasy is that there has been very little passing to RBs for New Orleans, since teams rarely send the house on Brees (RB screens combat this, but haven't really been utilized).

... this MIGHT change, because the Saints have more or less proven that elite front fours won't be able to get to him (see Jets & Giants).OTH, blitzing Brees has shown to be a losing proposition, too ... in the Eagles & Lions games, Brees's QB rating against the blitz was really high (north of 120, IIRC?).

 

[Doug B]

Shockey is what I'd call a "Bush killer" as Brees looks his way A LOT on the under 10 stuff.

Yep. Shockey catches the ball and gets as much YAC as the defense will give because he doesn't try to dance.

 

[packersfan]

I'm not strictly patting myself on the back here. I'm trying to make the point that current and historical stats are NOT all that matters as many seem to believe. If you want to be able to PREDICT what's going to happen, you have to look a little deeper. I almost always down on low "effectiveness per opportunity" guys for this reason unless there are very good reasons to explain it away. Saved me from a lot of dynasty pitfalls.

As I said, if you made the prediction that Bush's role in the passing game would decline significantly this season, then I applaud you. It was a great call on your part. I'm simply saying that there was a wealth of evidence which existed which supported the belief that Bush would have quality value in PPR leagues. Three seasons is a pretty large sample size. So I don't think it was out of the question to presume that Bush's role would remain similar to what it had been in the past. To this point, that call was off the mark obviously but I don't believe it lacked a basis in fact by any means.

There are always two sides to every coin. Previous results are probably the #1 indicator of what will happen in the future for FF. But there are also sometimes valid reasons to go away from those previous results when making your predictions, and some folks simply discount any possibility that things will change considerably. Obviously, finding the APPROPRIATE times to go away from the previous results is one of the things that makes FF fun.

Agreed. I still think Bush has a chance to be viable in PPR leagues - maybe no longer as a RB1/RB2 but as a solid RB3. But I have to admit my confidence is waning primarily because the Saints don't need him right now. If they get in a game where they are trailing or being blitzed and so forth then I could see Bush being more of a factor. But if they continue to play from the front and control every game it could be a long season for Bush owners.

 

[TheFanatic]

I can't tell you how many folks on the boards kept saying, "He gets good stats, that's all that matter for fantasy football."

That's because it was true.

Ah, but the faulty logic is that previous "good stats" will always be there going forward. FUTURE stats are the only thing that really matters (in the pre-season).I kept saying that the Saints will stop using him because he sucks. They kept saying, "They have used him so far, and they will continue to.". But eventually, the better players play, and the scrubs sit. Sometimes it takes a while for the high pedigree, high dollar guys, but eventually it happens.

This is where fantasy owners can't see that this game is based on what NFL teams do.

I would counter that by saying that, prior to this season, Bush was a strong example of fantasy owners understanding what NFL teams do and utilizing that to their advantage (primarily in PPR leagues). Bush's flaws as a runner have been evident for some time but the fact is he had a significant role in the Saints' passing game. As a result, his value in PPR formats was very high. It stood to reason that would continue even if he was phased out of the running game. I'm a huge Pierre Thomas fan and I argued in this forum last season that he deserved a larger role as a runner than Bush. So that doesn't surprise me at all that we've seen that happen with both Thomas and Bell. What has surprised me is the significant decline in reception production that Bush has had. Again, if there were people in this forum who predicted that Bush's receptions would go from an average of nearly 6 per game to the 2-3 they've been at lately than I congratulate them on what appears to be a terrific prediction thus far. Speaking for myself, I didn't expect that to happen and I'm surprised that it has thus far.

I said for a while now that he would be phased out and relegated to an overpriced Kevin Faulk type role. I'm starting to feel bad about that comparison. I shouldn't be so harsh to Faulk like that...