Reggie Williams Reception Total (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

This will be year 4 of this 23 year old's career...at just 23 years of age he had 52 receptions with a volatile QB situation.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+				 |		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 9-7-0jax |  16 |	 0	  0	0.0	0 |	27	268   9.9	1 || 2005 12-4-0jax |  16 |	 2	  3	1.5	0 |	35	445  12.7	0 || 2006 8-8-0jax |  16 |	 7	 33	4.7	0 |	52	616  11.8	4 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  48 |	 9	 36	4.0	0 |   114   1329  11.7	5 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

 

[FavreCo]

I'll go with 71-80 on the assumtion that Byron Bustwich will actually play 16 games OR Q. Grey will come in as the backup. Downgrade that to 40 catches if Garrabage weasels his way into the lineup for an extended period of time.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'll go with 71-80 on the assumtion that Byron Bustwich will actually play 16 games OR Q. Grey will come in as the backup. Downgrade that to 40 catches if Garrabage weasels his way into the lineup for an extended period of time.

If Vegas set the over/under on games started by Leftwich it would probably be around 12...I took that number into account when projecting for Reggie.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

actually Hucks it will be year 4.

 

[Warhogs]

I voted for his reception total to be about the same. I am assuming Matt Jones is healthier this year and his reception total will rise.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Can't wait for your next PDSL pick to kick off a thread....

 

[Kleck.]

actually Hucks it will be year 4.

And he'll be turning 24 next month.

 

[LHUCKS]

actually Hucks it will be year 4.

:X

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Dont bank on anything from Jacksonville's recievers. Lots of assumptions go into these rankings and assumptions are what led many to have false hope in the Jaguars' passing game this year. Anyway, some patterns do exist and are evident over time.

--Reggie Williams may have solidified his role as the go-to-guy this season, but he is far from that. When him and leftwich have been on the same page for a stretch of time, he will average around 4 catches a game for an appreicable amount of yards. He also emerged as Leftwich's favorite endzone threat, hauling in all the TD passes thrown to recievers by leftwich. However, what keeps him from being an everyweek fantasy play is his ability to disappear at any given moment. He has had some games against top-end corners where he holds his own but very well could come back next week and drop an egg against putrid secondaries (Houston week 6) that yielded the 2nd highest completion % in the NFL. To have done that is ridiculous. And frustrating.

--Matt Jones is an enigma with the injury as it is uncertain whether he will ever fully have his acceleration back. IIRC he had a high-ankle sprain. Regardless, when he is not injured, he has gone ### for tat with with Reggie Williams with Byron as QB, but is same to those fluctuations in statlines that really drive fantasy owners crazy. However, in his starts (4 last year), he has stayed pretty consistant through the game but did not produce much in the way of touchdowns until a nice stretch towards the end of the year. His value lies in predicting those big games, as he has a much higher ceiling fantasy-wise than Williams and can explode for 100+ (and a TD) a few times a season, a mark that Williams has not broken yet. If Matt can stay healthy, I see some good things for him in this offense as Letwich has started to look for him more often. He has that big-play ability if he stays healthy and learns to fight through those CB jams and potentially has more value in this offense than does Williams.

--Wilford is also a puzzle in that questions remain whether he will be with the Jaguars next season or not. He's an RFA at a pretty high tender and, if he remains with the Jags, will have to fight for receptions in that slot role with Northcutt. He never really got onto a roll with Leftwich last year or for any extended period in 2005 and saw his value rocket with Garrard at the helm. With JDR's commitment to Leftwich, however, it seems that Wilford also may be on the outs.

Stat Predictions:

--Reggie Williams: 58 receptions, 650 yards, 6 TD's

--------Matt Jones: 52 receptions, 800 yards, 5 TD's

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Dont forget Northcutt (LOL) and Adding Wiggins at TE.

 

[Keg]

i am not sure if i posted this here last yr(but I did at another site)

basically I am giving up trying to project the JAX WR numbers

Ok so here goes how I broke down and came up with the projections for the Jax WRs

I again looked at the previous 3 yrs

Offensive Plays Ran:

2003:1024(plays were exactly 50% run vs pass)

2004: 991(51.8% were passing plays)

2005:1021(47.4% were passing plays)

3yrAVG: 1012(49.7% were passing plays)

I am using 1000 plays for my 2006 projections so if anything you can add a smidge to my projections I am also going to use 50% passing to rushing plays...2005 was the 1st time in 3yrs there was a less then balanced attack on offense...with Fred Taylor a yr older and no true replacement I am going to use 50% as a baseline but I thin that this yr it could swing to 52% on passing plays)

PASSING STATS:

2003: 302/512 3389yds compl%58.9%

2004: 305/513 3315yds compl%59.5%

2005: 281/484 3340yds compl%58.1%

going to use 59% as a completion% for the projections

RECVNG STATS:

2003: WR1=72/1073*(23.8% of completions/31.7% of yds)

WR2=35/487(11.6% of completions/14.4% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

*Jimmy was suspended for the 1st 4 games so I extrapolated out his season to a full 16 games)

2004: WR1=74/1172(24.3% of completions/35.4% of yds)

WR2=50/533(16.4% of completions/16.1% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

2005: WR1=70/1023(24.9% of completions/30.6% of yds)

WR2=41/681(14.6% of completions/20.4% of yds)

WR3=35/445(12.5% of completions/13.3% of yds)

OK so those are the stats that I used to come up with the projections

There are a couple of variable that I factored in(my opinion of course):

1. The Jags werent very deep at Recvr in 03 & 04

2. Jimmy Smith passing the torch and all the other WRs are starting to step up but just as much as Freddy is getting old too...a key player that could change the WR3 numbers would be Drew but I am going to assume that the #3 WR is actually the 3rd best recvr again in 2006.

2006 Projections:

1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass)

PASSING

59% Completion %

295 Completions

500 Attempts

3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds)

RECVNG

WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards

WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards

WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage)

So that means that the JAX Recvng stats will be:

WR1=72/1122

WR2=45/612

WR3=39/442

as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs....

 

[bcr8f]

Who will have more receptions Drew or Williams?

 

[Keg]

i am not sure if i posted this here last yr(but I did at another site)

basically I am giving up trying to project the JAX WR numbers

Ok so here goes how I broke down and came up with the projections for the Jax WRs

I again looked at the previous 3 yrs

Offensive Plays Ran:

2003:1024(plays were exactly 50% run vs pass)

2004: 991(51.8% were passing plays)

2005:1021(47.4% were passing plays)

3yrAVG: 1012(49.7% were passing plays)

I am using 1000 plays for my 2006 projections so if anything you can add a smidge to my projections I am also going to use 50% passing to rushing plays...2005 was the 1st time in 3yrs there was a less then balanced attack on offense...with Fred Taylor a yr older and no true replacement I am going to use 50% as a baseline but I thin that this yr it could swing to 52% on passing plays)

PASSING STATS:

2003: 302/512 3389yds compl%58.9%

2004: 305/513 3315yds compl%59.5%

2005: 281/484 3340yds compl%58.1%

going to use 59% as a completion% for the projections

RECVNG STATS:

2003: WR1=72/1073*(23.8% of completions/31.7% of yds)

WR2=35/487(11.6% of completions/14.4% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

*Jimmy was suspended for the 1st 4 games so I extrapolated out his season to a full 16 games)

2004: WR1=74/1172(24.3% of completions/35.4% of yds)

WR2=50/533(16.4% of completions/16.1% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

2005: WR1=70/1023(24.9% of completions/30.6% of yds)

WR2=41/681(14.6% of completions/20.4% of yds)

WR3=35/445(12.5% of completions/13.3% of yds)

OK so those are the stats that I used to come up with the projections

There are a couple of variable that I factored in(my opinion of course):

1. The Jags werent very deep at Recvr in 03 & 04

2. Jimmy Smith passing the torch and all the other WRs are starting to step up but just as much as Freddy is getting old too...a key player that could change the WR3 numbers would be Drew but I am going to assume that the #3 WR is actually the 3rd best recvr again in 2006.

2006 Projections:

1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass)

PASSING

59% Completion %

295 Completions

500 Attempts

3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds)

RECVNG

WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards

WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards

WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage)

So that means that the JAX Recvng stats will be:

WR1=72/1122

WR2=45/612

WR3=39/442

as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs....

in 2006 Jax ran 989 plays so I was off by 11 which isnt to bad but i was way wrong on their run pass ratioRun 52%

Pass 48%

Completion % was 59.6% but yardage was only 2882

I projected 295 completions but the actual # was 266

I projected 500 pass attempts but the actual # was 446

I projected 3500 passing yards expecting a bump due to YAC boy was I wrong, actual # 2882

 

[LHUCKS]

--Reggie Williams: 58 receptions, 650 yards, 6 TD's

So no substantial increase in Reggie's production, despite the following: A) year 4 of Reggie's young career when many young WRs begin to reach their prime B) the addition of KoetterC) A healthier, more experienced Leftwich

 

[FavreCo]

--Reggie Williams: 58 receptions, 650 yards, 6 TD's

So no substantial increase in Reggie's production, despite the following: A) year 4 of Reggie's young career when many young WRs begin to reach their prime despite

B) the addition of Koetter

C) A healthier, more experienced Leftwich

It all hinges on #3. It took Bustwich a couple of years to realize that Reggie is Smith's replacement, not slow as molasses Wilford or frail Matt Jones.

 

[gman8343]

--Reggie Williams: 58 receptions, 650 yards, 6 TD's

So no substantial increase in Reggie's production, despite the following: A) year 4 of Reggie's young career when many young WRs begin to reach their prime B) the addition of KoetterC) A healthier, more experienced Leftwich

If Matt Jones & Mercedes Lewis are healthy, they could steal catches from Williams. As could Wiggins.

 

[KoolKat]

Dont forget Northcutt (LOL) and Adding Wiggins at TE.

I actually think Northcutt is one of the more undervalued and underrated WRs in the league as far as the NFL (not FF). I'd take him over Welker.

 

[The Duff Man]

I think Williams is going to be money as a value play next year. He posted great stats to start the year with Lefty in at QB. If you project those over a full season and then reduce them to account for some of the factors discussed in this thread you still have a great WR #3 candidate in 12 team leagues that I am guessing can be had as late as the 12th round? I'm not sure if there is an ADP info out there yet.

Expecting WR #2 stats could be asking too much.

 

[Fallerjw]

Dont forget Northcutt (LOL) and Adding Wiggins at TE.

I actually think Northcutt is one of the more undervalued and underrated WRs in the league as far as the NFL (not FF). I'd take him over Welker.

He does many things well. Catching critical 3rd down passes is not one of them.

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

--Reggie Williams: 58 receptions, 650 yards, 6 TD's

So no substantial increase in Reggie's production, despite the following: A) year 4 of Reggie's young career when many young WRs begin to reach their prime

B) the addition of Koetter

C) A healthier, more experienced Leftwich

If Matt Jones & Mercedes Lewis are healthy, they could steal catches from Williams. As could Wiggins.

For a variety of reasons.

1.) A healthy Marcedes Lewis and the addition of wiggins should be a reason not to overstate Williams' reception totals. Lewis barely made a dent on the statsheet last year being hampered by a variety of issues and and the emerging role of Wrighster. Lewis should contribute in an appreciable way as should Wiggins. With the signing of Tony Pashos at RT, the TE will no longer have to stay in and block as often as Kyle Brady did last year, allowing Wiggins to take those short-under routes and allow Lewis the flexibility to run those intermediate routes- where he is most effective. This will certainly take some balls away from Williams as Lewis' size creates huge mismatches that the Jaguars, and especially Koetter (Todd Heap) will love to exploit.

2.) Drafting of #3/Northcutt: This is exactly what the Jaguars should have done two years ago. A small, speedy reciever to draw safetys away from the other recievers is the one crucial cog to hopefully make that Jaguars' passing attack click. Dont overstate Northcutt's prospects either: many of Jags fans saw this signing as almost an emergency manuever to ensure they have a guy at the position if they dont secure one via the draft, a la Ted Ginn. Either will also return punks/kicks or both. IIRC, if we cut Northcutt in the near future, the hit would be minimal. Regardless, that role should take some catches away from either of the recievers, Koetter also loves the vertical passing game. Either player should be pretty effective here but if we are lucky enough to grab Ted Ginn- that spot could be lethal.

This is an indication of what you should expect this year from the passing game.

3.) A healthy Matt Jones represents a serious blow to Williams in this offense. From what Ive seen, Leftwich actually targeted Jones more than Williams pre-injury and has stated publicly his comfort zone with Jones. The injury really devastated Jones because he had no burst when he returned to the lineup and could not seperate. He started to put on the burn towards the end of the year as he was able to get some of his speed back and in turn, Garrard started looking for him more often. He really is a dynamic player and the coaches love the guy. In fact, Del Rio has stated that Jones is the most naturally talented reciever in the NFL. Jones is sick working in man coverage (when there is no jam) and it seems that he will be looking at those coverages if the recieving corps stays healthy.

*Disclaimer: While I stand on the number of receptions, I am a bit torn on the yardage situation. I can justify Williams having a lower YPC this year as he can concentrate on short-to-intermediate routes with other weapons on offense but if the scheme works out as planned, Williams would be in a spot to run routes along the seams and could pick up a few yards after the catch.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Matt Jones.. still overvalued a bit (took him at 7.8 in 14 teamer this yr)

Reggie Williams.. Value pick

If Both stay healthy Jone > Williams

 

[Yitbos69]

75/900/5

Matt Jones is just not that good. But he will end up on the highlight reel from time to time!