Regular Season Post-Bye Advantage (1 Viewer)

[Couch Potato]

It just seems to make sense than a team coming off a bye has an advantage over a team that played the previous week. An extra week to game plan the opponent, an extra week to get rested and healthy.

But has anyone taken a close look to see how significant an advantage it is? And whether the defense or offense is helped more? With groups like Football Outsiders and others out there, somebody must have studied this. If you've seen such a study and can point me toward it I'd appreciate it.

 

[Billy Costigan Jr]

Using The Google...I found this relevant article that was clearly done in 2006 using each team's last 11 post BYE games for their stats.

NFL ATS Records After a Bye Week

A lot of recreational sports bettors believe that a team coming off a bye week has an advantage. The handicapping theory is that team is playing on two weeks rest, so the team can use the extra week to heal bumps and bruises and also have the extra week to plan for the upcoming opponent.

There are two things wrong with using this as a flat betting system. The first would be momentum. The team may have just put together a winning streak and are running on all cylinders. With the off week, the odds are that they will lose some of their timing and their competitive edge. The second reason would be the lines-maker. If anything because of the public's misconception of the "coming off a bye week" advantage the lines-maker would shade the lines against the bye team.

Below we have listed the against the spread records of each NFL team in their game after the break.

Current Records Ending After the 2005 Football Season.

Washington Redskins 8-3

Arizona Cardinals 7-3

Denver Broncos 7-3-1

Houston Texans 2-1-1

Dallas Cowboys 7-4

New York Jets 7-4

New Orleans Saints 7-4

Philadelphia Eagles 7-4

Kansas City Chiefs 5-3

Baltimore Ravens 6-4

Buffalo Bills 5-4-1

Minnesota Vikings 6-5

Oakland Raiders 6-5

Tennessee Titans 6-5

Carolina Panthers 5-5-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 5-5

Pittsburgh Steelers 5-5

San Diego Chargers 4-4

St Louis Rams 5-5

Chicago Bears 5-6

Cleveland Browns 2-3

Indianapolis Colts 4-6-1

Seattle Seahawks 4-6

San Francisco 49ers 4-6-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6

Detroit Lions 3-5-1

New England Patriots 4-7

Atlanta Falcons 3-6-1

Miami Dolphins 3-6-2

Green Bay Packers 3-7

New York Giants 3-8

Cincinnati Bengals 2-7

link

 

[amnesiac]

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