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Report: Omicron is much more contagious - Discussion on severity (1 Viewer)

I'd prefer to consider and explore the claim. If these sources are so bad, let's just keep proving them wrong conclusively, rather than using shortcut messenger attacks that don't prove anything, and only add to the divisiveness.
So when they are wrong 95% of the time, and you are wasting time debunking these sites info. ..? 

 
When the messengers and websites continually follow the same paths, their credibility will be attacked. If you want to have a legit conversation, go find the source material and post that instead of the questionable websites and sources.


so when the CDC rewrites what they've said, when leaders go against the very mandates they've put in place or completely reverse what they've promised ... do you attack their credibility ?

 
I know Alex Berenson is the boogeyman for many, but I would like the more learned of us to take down his Substack essay today. My own take on Berenson is that he's generally quite honest about things, but his hatred for all things pharma often clouds his perspective. Curious about reactions to the below:

 

The light at the end of the mRNA vaccine tunnel looks more like a train every day

Alex BerensonMar 18

We need to talk about South Korea.

Through 2020 and 2021, South Korea chased zero Covid with strict border controls, aggressive testing and tracing, and a vaccination campaign that reached nearly its entire adult population with mRNA (and some DNA) shots.

The country didn’t quite get to zero. Infections and deaths rose slowly last year. But it came close enough that the usual highly credentialed public health experts held it up as a light among the nations.

Here’s Devi Sridhar - once the world’s youngest Rhodes Scholar, today a “personal chair” in Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh Medical School - telling the world in November 2021 how super-duper-good South Korea did:

SOURCE

Devi - you can trust her, look at that piercing gaze! - explained:

Maximum suppression helped buy time for scientists to get to work, and therefore find a sustainable exit from the crisis… The pivot from maximum suppression to mass vaccination was a rational and logical shift to achieve a successful transition out of the pandemic.

Devi?

Reality called. It has some edits to your piece.

On Thursday, South Korea reported 600,000 new Covid infections - the equivalent of more than 4 million in the United States. In a single day.

Covid deaths are skyrocketing too. South Korea reported 429 deaths Thursday, the equivalent of about 3,000 in the United States. That number is all but certain to skyrocket - cases have risen so fast that deaths have not had time to catch up yet. No one should be surprised if South Korea reports more than 1,000 daily Covid deaths in the next month.

Dial E for exponential:

South Korea, even more than Hong Kong, shows the world what happens when Omicron hits a densely populated region that has no prior Covid immunity at the wrong time, as the mRNA shots fail in unison.

The mRNA shots have negative efficacy against Omicron infection within months - meaning that vaccinated people are more likely to become infected. Data from Canada, Britain, Scotland, the United States, and other countries all agree on this point. I’m not sure anyone serious even argues it anymore.

In New Zealand, for example, unvaccinated people now have even lower infection rates than those who have received boosters:

SOURCE



So South Korea finds itself exactly the wrong place in the Covid cycle.

It vaccinated its citizens mostly from June through October 2021. It started boosters in November, and the people who who received the third jabs first were the elderly and frail. The reason South Korea has the highest rate of new Covid cases any country has ever seen is not despite but because it is so highly vaccinated. The failure of the shots is accelerating the rate of infection and transmission.

Hospitalizations and deaths are rising too, though they have not reached the overwhelming levels that the case figures would suggest. The vaccine advocates - clinging to the last plank of the rapidly sinking SS MRNA - insist this is proof the vaccines are working. Or at least not failing catastrophically.

Maybe. Maybe not. Several factors complicate the picture around hospitalizations and deaths. Omicron is more contagious but milder. Treatments have improved in the last two years, and doctors now do everything possible to keep people off ventilators (in Britain, for example, the number of ventilated patients in Britain has almost completely decoupled from hospitalizations).

Also, South Korea has some of the thinnest people in the world (it is so focused on keeping its citizens thin that it uses a BMI standard of 25 for obesity, rather than the international standard of 30, to make its numbers look worse and encourage citizens to view obesity as a crisis). Obesity is a critical risk factor for Covid, so South Korea’s relative thinness makes cross-national comparisons even more difficult to make.

Finally, at this point no one can know how many hospitalizations and deaths South Korea will have in the next couple of months. By the time the counting is done, though, the world’s attention will elsewhere and the advocates will be onto Shot Five (this time it’ll work, really!).



Meantime, as cases and hospitalizations and deaths take off, South Korea is doing -

Well, pretty much nothing. The country has been loosening restrictions for months and says it will continue to do so.

As the Times wrote Thursday:

With the vast majority of its adult population vaccinated and about nine out of 10 of those 60 and older with a booster, South Korea is pushing ahead with plans to ease social distancing measures, relax border restrictions and learn to live with the virus’s risk, even as it is experiencing some of the highest per-person infection rates anywhere in the world.

The reality is that the South Koreans can’t do anything else. They’re not going back into lockdown, and they’ve already given boosters to basically everyone who might get any short-term benefit from them.

Devi Sridhar laid out what was supposed to happen (and what she thought had happened): lockdowns would be the bridge to vaccines which would be the tunnel to freedom! Good countries like South Korea would win and mean nasty selfish countries like the United States would lose.

Mistakes have clearly been made in both the UK and US – in particular, a cynical fatalism that no scientific solution would emerge, that mass infection was inevitable…

But biology is not a morality play. Science doesn’t always win, even if Pfizer pinky swore that it would:



We’re all Team Reality now, folks, even if some of the bluechecks still haven’t caught up. The only question left is not how much good but how much damage those miracle shots have done.

See the discussion

LikeShare

© 2022 Alex Berenson Unsubscribe
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104

 
I know Alex Berenson is the boogeyman for many, but I would like the more learned of us to take down his Substack essay today. My own take on Berenson is that he's generally quite honest about things, but his hatred for all things pharma often clouds his perspective. Curious about reactions to the below:

 

The light at the end of the mRNA vaccine tunnel looks more like a train every day

Alex BerensonMar 18

We need to talk about South Korea.

Through 2020 and 2021, South Korea chased zero Covid with strict border controls, aggressive testing and tracing, and a vaccination campaign that reached nearly its entire adult population with mRNA (and some DNA) shots.

The country didn’t quite get to zero. Infections and deaths rose slowly last year. But it came close enough that the usual highly credentialed public health experts held it up as a light among the nations.

Here’s Devi Sridhar - once the world’s youngest Rhodes Scholar, today a “personal chair” in Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh Medical School - telling the world in November 2021 how super-duper-good South Korea did:

SOURCE

Devi - you can trust her, look at that piercing gaze! - explained:

Maximum suppression helped buy time for scientists to get to work, and therefore find a sustainable exit from the crisis… The pivot from maximum suppression to mass vaccination was a rational and logical shift to achieve a successful transition out of the pandemic.

Devi?

Reality called. It has some edits to your piece.

On Thursday, South Korea reported 600,000 new Covid infections - the equivalent of more than 4 million in the United States. In a single day.

Covid deaths are skyrocketing too. South Korea reported 429 deaths Thursday, the equivalent of about 3,000 in the United States. That number is all but certain to skyrocket - cases have risen so fast that deaths have not had time to catch up yet. No one should be surprised if South Korea reports more than 1,000 daily Covid deaths in the next month.

Dial E for exponential:

South Korea, even more than Hong Kong, shows the world what happens when Omicron hits a densely populated region that has no prior Covid immunity at the wrong time, as the mRNA shots fail in unison.

The mRNA shots have negative efficacy against Omicron infection within months - meaning that vaccinated people are more likely to become infected. Data from Canada, Britain, Scotland, the United States, and other countries all agree on this point. I’m not sure anyone serious even argues it anymore.

In New Zealand, for example, unvaccinated people now have even lower infection rates than those who have received boosters:

SOURCE



So South Korea finds itself exactly the wrong place in the Covid cycle.

It vaccinated its citizens mostly from June through October 2021. It started boosters in November, and the people who who received the third jabs first were the elderly and frail. The reason South Korea has the highest rate of new Covid cases any country has ever seen is not despite but because it is so highly vaccinated. The failure of the shots is accelerating the rate of infection and transmission.

Hospitalizations and deaths are rising too, though they have not reached the overwhelming levels that the case figures would suggest. The vaccine advocates - clinging to the last plank of the rapidly sinking SS MRNA - insist this is proof the vaccines are working. Or at least not failing catastrophically.

Maybe. Maybe not. Several factors complicate the picture around hospitalizations and deaths. Omicron is more contagious but milder. Treatments have improved in the last two years, and doctors now do everything possible to keep people off ventilators (in Britain, for example, the number of ventilated patients in Britain has almost completely decoupled from hospitalizations).

Also, South Korea has some of the thinnest people in the world (it is so focused on keeping its citizens thin that it uses a BMI standard of 25 for obesity, rather than the international standard of 30, to make its numbers look worse and encourage citizens to view obesity as a crisis). Obesity is a critical risk factor for Covid, so South Korea’s relative thinness makes cross-national comparisons even more difficult to make.

Finally, at this point no one can know how many hospitalizations and deaths South Korea will have in the next couple of months. By the time the counting is done, though, the world’s attention will elsewhere and the advocates will be onto Shot Five (this time it’ll work, really!).



Meantime, as cases and hospitalizations and deaths take off, South Korea is doing -

Well, pretty much nothing. The country has been loosening restrictions for months and says it will continue to do so.

As the Times wrote Thursday:

With the vast majority of its adult population vaccinated and about nine out of 10 of those 60 and older with a booster, South Korea is pushing ahead with plans to ease social distancing measures, relax border restrictions and learn to live with the virus’s risk, even as it is experiencing some of the highest per-person infection rates anywhere in the world.

The reality is that the South Koreans can’t do anything else. They’re not going back into lockdown, and they’ve already given boosters to basically everyone who might get any short-term benefit from them.

Devi Sridhar laid out what was supposed to happen (and what she thought had happened): lockdowns would be the bridge to vaccines which would be the tunnel to freedom! Good countries like South Korea would win and mean nasty selfish countries like the United States would lose.

Mistakes have clearly been made in both the UK and US – in particular, a cynical fatalism that no scientific solution would emerge, that mass infection was inevitable…

But biology is not a morality play. Science doesn’t always win, even if Pfizer pinky swore that it would:



We’re all Team Reality now, folks, even if some of the bluechecks still haven’t caught up. The only question left is not how much good but how much damage those miracle shots have done.

See the discussion

LikeShare

© 2022 Alex Berenson Unsubscribe
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104
tl:dr version

The mRNA shots have negative efficacy against Omicron infection within months - meaning that vaccinated people are more likely to become infected. Data from Canada, Britain, Scotland, the United States, and other countries all agree on this point. I’m not sure anyone serious even argues it anymore.

 
tl:dr version

The mRNA shots have negative efficacy against Omicron infection within months - meaning that vaccinated people are more likely to become infected. Data from Canada, Britain, Scotland, the United States, and other countries all agree on this point. I’m not sure anyone serious even argues it anymore.
Yes, I read it. I'm interested in folks giving a counter argument to it. I'm not saying I agree with all he's writing here, but damn if it doesn't make sense at first blush.

 
I think my counter argument would be that based on the numbers in the article, Korea has 5x as many daily cases as we have ever had but far fewer deaths than we had at our peak. That suggest vaccines are making the cases much less severe.

 
I think my counter argument would be that based on the numbers in the article, Korea has 5x as many daily cases as we have ever had but far fewer deaths than we had at our peak. That suggest vaccines are making the cases much less severe.


The US has lost 3,000 people per million citizens to COVID already.

South Korea is at 229 deaths per million.

I think I'll wait and see how things look once we're really through the other side of this before I decide South Korea's done something wrong.

 
I think my counter argument would be that based on the numbers in the article, Korea has 5x as many daily cases as we have ever had but far fewer deaths than we had at our peak. That suggest vaccines are making the cases much less severe.
That was my takeaway as well.  If South Korea comes out of this with case counts kind of like ours but far fewer deaths -- which seems like a pretty likely outcome -- they will have done well.

 
tl:dr version

The mRNA shots have negative efficacy against Omicron infection within months - meaning that vaccinated people are more likely to become infected. Data from Canada, Britain, Scotland, the United States, and other countries all agree on this point. I’m not sure anyone serious even argues it anymore.
Yes, I read it. I'm interested in folks giving a counter argument to it. I'm not saying I agree with all he's writing here, but damn if it doesn't make sense at first blush.
Can't counter it -- Berenson simply asserts it without showing the supporting data.

 
I’ve not heard or read anything about “negative efficacy”. I think it’s a BS term. Berenson acts like it’s a foregone conclusion, but I’m going to need to see someone with scientific credibility show data suggesting UNvaccinated people in Korea are more resistant to infection than vaccinated ones with waning immunity.  

The key in building that case is making sure you are looking at people with similar characteristics - age, BMI and comorbidities. In the US at least, voluntarily unvaccinated people tend to be much younger and healthier. Meanwhile, people who received their vaccine series the earliest were those at highest risk. So if you just compare the groups as a whole, it wouldn’t be surprising if vulnerable people months out from their boosters are getting infected with omicron fairly frequently. But I doubt they are getting infected MORE than UNvaccinated people with the same baseline covid risk, and more importantly, there’re certainly not getting hospitalized and dying as often as an age and comorbidity-matched group.

As others have said, Korea remains a model for how it has handled the pandemic. While they  may be succumbing to public pressure to remain “open” during this surge, they’ve got a long way to go before sniffing outcomes as bad as the US and most of Europe.

 
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Can't counter it -- Berenson simply asserts it without showing the supporting data.
Sure you can.  Our death rate at it's peak was 13/million/day during Delta.  Currently at it's worse with Omicron South Korea is 8/million/day.   

The question is will they continue to get worse and exceed 13/million/day?  That would be pretty definitive.  Now let's pretend they've peaked (they haven't).  Wasn't Omicron inherently supposed to be much less deadly than Delta? 13/8 isn't even half as deadly. 

Plus they are 86% fully vaccinated compared to our 66%.

 
Sure you can.  Our death rate at it's peak was 13/million/day during Delta.  Currently at it's worse with Omicron South Korea is 8/million/day.   

The question is will they continue to get worse and exceed 13/million/day?  That would be pretty definitive.  Now let's pretend they've peaked (they haven't).  Wasn't Omicron inherently supposed to be much less deadly than Delta? 13/8 isn't even half as deadly. 

Plus they are 86% fully vaccinated compared to our 66%.
But blueberry jam is better. Unless King Tut prefers the Watusi. Throatwarbler mangrove could be a concern, as well.

 
Sure you can.  Our death rate at it's peak was 13/million/day during Delta.  Currently at it's worse with Omicron South Korea is 8/million/day.   

The question is will they continue to get worse and exceed 13/million/day?  That would be pretty definitive.  Now let's pretend they've peaked (they haven't).  Wasn't Omicron inherently supposed to be much less deadly than Delta? 13/8 isn't even half as deadly. 

Plus they are 86% fully vaccinated compared to our 66%.
Not exactly.

While I don’t think their death rate will ever exceed our worst, there is a point where hospitals are so overwhelmed that healthcare infrastructure fails. When that happens, bad outcomes, including death occur more frequently than would be expected based on disease severity alone.

 
But blueberry jam is better. Unless King Tut prefers the Watusi. Throatwarbler mangrove could be a concern, as well.
If you want to compare more apples to apples our peak during Omicron was 10/million/day.  South Korea is currently at 8/million/day. Let's see where they end up after they peak.  Sound good?

 
Not exactly.

While I don’t think their death rate will ever exceed our worst, there is a point where hospitals are so overwhelmed that healthcare infrastructure fails. When that happens, bad outcomes, including death occur more frequently than would be expected based on disease severity alone.
So you're saying their hospitals are more overwhelmed right now than ours ever were?  Could be, I don't know.  

 
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So you're saying their hospitals are more overwhelmed right now than ours ever were?  Could be.  
I don’t know, but we’ve seen spikes in other places when the sh!t hits the fan - Italy comes to mind.

Even locally, I’ve seen really unprecedented straying from standards of care during peak hospital caseloads.

 
The mRNA shots have negative efficacy against Omicron infection within months - meaning that vaccinated people are more likely to become infected.
Specifically, this is the proposition Berenson has not supported. High-level national numbers don't matter here. He must establish the bolded, rather than merely assert it.

 
That was my takeaway as well.  If South Korea comes out of this with case counts kind of like ours but far fewer deaths -- which seems like a pretty likely outcome -- they will have done well.
I agree with this. It's highly unlikely that in the aggregate S. Korea will ever approach the numbers of the U.S. and many western nations. 

What gives me pause is that their deaths are currently nearing what ours were at their worst on a per/diem basis. With deaths lagging infections, it seems they are likely to exceed where we were at our lowest point. With a vaxxed population, that wasn't supposed to happen.

I don't read this as so much a criticism of S. Korea and their methods but as a criticism of vaccines themselves. Which is unsurprising coming from Berenson, as he has been very vocally calling out Pfizer/Moderna all along.

 
Specifically, this is the proposition Berenson has not supported. High-level national numbers don't matter here. He must establish the bolded, rather than merely assert it.
Acknowledged.

Beyond that if S. Korea's numbers end up worse than ours though it says something about the vaccine.  They are significantly more vaccinated than us.  If it's overwhelmed hospitals as suggested, being significantly worse than ours, what that would say about the vaccine is that access to hospital care is more important than being vaccinated.  For example.

 
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Specifically, this is the proposition Berenson has not supported. High-level national numbers don't matter here. He must establish the bolded, rather than merely assert it.
Although it would be extremely hard to prove, this statement also warrants a lot of scrutiny:

The failure of the shots is accelerating the rate of infection and transmission.

 
Although it would be extremely hard to prove, this statement also warrants a lot of scrutiny:
I agree that the negative efficacy theories don't make a lot of sense to me.

Leaving that out of the discussion though, the surging cases and commensurate deaths are alarming to me. 

If you'd told me a year ago this would happen anywhere this vaccinated I'd have said you were crazy.

 
I agree with this. It's highly unlikely that in the aggregate S. Korea will ever approach the numbers of the U.S. and many western nations. 

What gives me pause is that their deaths are currently nearing what ours were at their worst on a per/diem basis. With deaths lagging infections, it seems they are likely to exceed where we were at our lowest point. With a vaxxed population, that wasn't supposed to happen.

I don't read this as so much a criticism of S. Korea and their methods but as a criticism of vaccines themselves. Which is unsurprising coming from Berenson, as he has been very vocally calling out Pfizer/Moderna all along.
Do you have a theory why vaccinated peeps might do less well than their unvaccinated counterparts? (Note: I’m not suggesting they are; just looking for an explanation why one thinks that could happen).

 
I agree that the negative efficacy theories don't make a lot of sense to me.

Leaving that out of the discussion though, the surging cases and commensurate deaths are alarming to me. 

If you'd told me a year ago this would happen anywhere this vaccinated I'd have said you were crazy.
Overwhelmed hospitals are a b!tch.

 
Do you have a theory why vaccinated peeps might do less well than their unvaccinated counterparts? (Note: I’m not suggesting they are; just looking for an explanation why one thinks that could happen).
I don't have a theory about any of it. 

But it is alarming to me. 

 
Acknowledged.

Beyond that if S. Korea's numbers end up worse than ours though it says something about the vaccine.  They are significantly more vaccinated than us.  If it's overwhelmed hospitals as suggested, being significantly worse than ours, what that would say about the vaccine is that access to hospital care is more important than being vaccinated.  For example.
Communities being vaccinated helps having access to hospitals.

 
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Sure you can.  Our death rate at it's peak was 13/million/day during Delta.  Currently at it's worse with Omicron South Korea is 8/million/day.   

The question is will they continue to get worse and exceed 13/million/day?  That would be pretty definitive.  Now let's pretend they've peaked (they haven't).  Wasn't Omicron inherently supposed to be much less deadly than Delta? 13/8 isn't even half as deadly. 

Plus they are 86% fully vaccinated compared to our 66%.
Need to make a correction here, my bad.  Our worst numbers, 13/million/day, come during whatever strain it was in January of 2021 when very little of our population was vaccinated.

S. Korea has already matched our peak during Delta at 8/million/day.  

 
That would really be something if S. Korea at 86% vaccinated gets worse numbers with Omicron than we did in January 2021 when we were only 6% vaccinated.  

 
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It's unbelievable that people are still arguing vaccines.  I came in here to discuss Fauci's recent statements regarding the new variant.  Now THAT is an interesting discussion.  If the newest variant is even less deadly than omicron, what should be done about it, if things start spiking?  (though I imagine that the USA should be quite resitant due to how many people got omicron)

The vaccine thing?  Cmon guys get a grip.  If everyone was vaccinated, covid wouldn't be an issue anymore.  The fact that there are tens of millions of people denying reality never fails to amaze me.

 
It's unbelievable that people are still arguing vaccines.  I came in here to discuss Fauci's recent statements regarding the new variant.  Now THAT is an interesting discussion.  If the newest variant is even less deadly than omicron, what should be done about it, if things start spiking?  (though I imagine that the USA should be quite resitant due to how many people got omicron)

The vaccine thing?  Cmon guys get a grip.  If everyone was vaccinated, covid wouldn't be an issue anymore.  The fact that there are tens of millions of people denying reality never fails to amaze me.
Not sure if you are responding in regards to the current situation in S. Korea. 

In any case, that is a country where virtually everyone is vaccinated, and they are having big issues. I feel it's worth discussing.  

 
Communities being vaccinated helps having access to hospitals.
Is there a place to find number of hospitalizations per day by country?

Given that it's the same vaccine and same variant can we assume a similar hospitalization rate for Omicron?

Our worst total number of new cases per day was 2,700/million/day.  S. Korea just hit 12,200/million/day. (both Omicron)

It doesn't appear your hypothesis is holding true for S. Korea.

 
It's unbelievable that people are still arguing vaccines.  I came in here to discuss Fauci's recent statements regarding the new variant.  Now THAT is an interesting discussion.  If the newest variant is even less deadly than omicron, what should be done about it, if things start spiking?  (though I imagine that the USA should be quite resitant due to how many people got omicron)

The vaccine thing?  Cmon guys get a grip.  If everyone was vaccinated, covid wouldn't be an issue anymore.  The fact that there are tens of millions of people denying reality never fails to amaze me.
Fauci is back?

S. Korea is nearing 90% fully vaccinated and it is very much a thing right now for them.

 
I agree with this. It's highly unlikely that in the aggregate S. Korea will ever approach the numbers of the U.S. and many western nations. 

What gives me pause is that their deaths are currently nearing what ours were at their worst on a per/diem basis. With deaths lagging infections, it seems they are likely to exceed where we were at our lowest point. With a vaxxed population, that wasn't supposed to happen.
I'm not sure per-capita is the best way to look at this. Instead of making the universe each nation's entire populations, infected or not ... let's see how they do on a per-case basis.

I ran these numbers for another site this past weekend. I've updated to include South Korea's most recent numbers. Basically, using 7-day averages, it compares the U.S. and South Korea based on when they passed a given case-count benchmark (based on where SK was last Saturday, and again today).

Last Saturday’s seven-day average of COVID deaths in South Korea was 206. Yesterday's was 262. Working backwards two weeks to account for the lag between COVID cases and outcomes, South Korea had 147,427 cases (7-day avg) on 2/27/2022 and 170,328 two weeks before yesterday (3/3/2022).

The U.S. has gone over a COVID-case seven-day average case count of 140,000 three times – with the winter 2020-21 surge, the Delta surge, and the Omicron surge. All three surges also closely approached or passed 170,000 (see Delta note below). I have picked out the dates when 140,000 was surpassed on the upward-moving trendlines with each surge, then added two weeks to see how death trailed compared to what South Korea is experiencing now. The raw numbers tell the tale (all numbers below are from the respective charts for South Korea and the US on Worldometers):

South Korea

2022 surge
Cases (7-day avg)

2/26/2022 - 139,039
2/27/2022 - 147,427
3/3/2022 - 170,328

Deaths (7-day avg)
3/12/2022 - 192
3/13/2022 - 206
3/17/2022 - 262

USA

Winter 2020-21 surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

11/12/2021 - 139,378
11/14/2021 - 150,855
12/2/2020 - 170,464

Deaths (7-day avg)
11/28/2020 - 1,856
11/30/2020 - 1,792
12/16/2020 - 2,795
 

Delta surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

8/16/2021 - 137,849
8/17/2021 - 140,209
9/2/2021 - 169,240 <-- NOTE: Delta peak

Deaths (7-day avg)
8/30/2021 - 1,626
8/31/2021 - 1,652
9/14/2021 - 1,998
9/16/2021 - 2,049 (EDIT: Meant originally to use 9/16/2021 data, not 9/14/2021 based on 9/2/2021 + 14 days)

Omicron surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

12/18/2021 - 136,810
12/19/2022 - 143,306
12/21/2021 - 161,340

Deaths (7-day avg)
1/1/2022 - 1,326
1/2/2022 - 1,357
1/4/2022 - 1,399

 
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I'm not sure per-capita is the best way to look at this. Instead of making the universe each nation's entire populations, infected or not ... let's see how they do on a per-case basis.

I ran these numbers for another site this past weekend. I've updated to include South Korea's most recent numbers. Basically, using 7-day averages, it compares the U.S. and South Korea based on when they passed a given case-count benchmark (based on where SK was last Saturday, and again today).

Last Saturday’s seven-day average of COVID deaths in South Korea was 206. Yesterday's was 262. Working backwards two weeks to account for the lag between COVID cases and outcomes, South Korea had 147,427 cases (7-day avg) on 2/27/2022 and 170,328 two weeks before yesterday (3/3/2022).

The U.S. has gone over a COVID-case seven-day average case count of 140,000 three times – with the winter 2020-21 surge, the Delta surge, and the Omicron surge. All three surges also closely approached or passed 170,000 (see Delta note below). I have picked out the dates when 140,000 was surpassed on the upward-moving trendlines with each surge, then added two weeks to see how death trailed compared to what South Korea is experiencing now. The raw numbers tell the tale (all numbers below are from the respective charts for South Korea and the US on Worldometers):

South Korea

2022 surge
Cases (7-day avg)

2/26/2022 - 139,039
2/27/2022 - 147,427
3/3/2022 - 170,328

Deaths (7-day avg)
3/12/2022 - 192
3/13/2022 - 206
3/17/2022 - 262

USA

Winter 2020-21 surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

11/12/2021 - 139,378
11/14/2021 - 150,855
12/2/2020 - 170,464

Deaths (7-day avg)
11/28/2020 - 1,856
11/30/2020 - 1,792
12/16/2020 - 2,795

Delta surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

8/16/2021 - 137,849
8/17/2021 - 140,209
9/2/2021 - 169,240 <-- NOTE: Delta peak

Deaths (7-day avg)
8/30/2021 - 1,626
8/31/2021 - 1,652
9/14/2021 - 1,998

Omicron surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

12/18/2021 - 136,810
12/19/2022 - 143,306
12/21/2021 - 161,340

Deaths (7-day avg)
1/1/2022 - 1,326
1/2/2022 - 1,357
1/4/2022 - 1,399
What's your reasoning for ignoring population?

Doing it per case is ignoring inefficiencies of being tested and tests being reported.  You remember not even being able to find test kits until about a month ago?  And now these home tests aren't even being reported.  You've greatly downsized the number of cases in the US, imo.

Proof is in the pudding and known number of deaths per capita is a known number (the pudding). 

 
I'm not sure per-capita is the best way to look at this. Instead of making the universe each nation's entire populations, infected or not ... let's see how they do on a per-case basis.

I ran these numbers for another site this past weekend. I've updated to include South Korea's most recent numbers. Basically, using 7-day averages, it compares the U.S. and South Korea based on when they passed a given case-count benchmark (based on where SK was last Saturday, and again today).

Last Saturday’s seven-day average of COVID deaths in South Korea was 206. Yesterday's was 262. Working backwards two weeks to account for the lag between COVID cases and outcomes, South Korea had 147,427 cases (7-day avg) on 2/27/2022 and 170,328 two weeks before yesterday (3/3/2022).

The U.S. has gone over a COVID-case seven-day average case count of 140,000 three times – with the winter 2020-21 surge, the Delta surge, and the Omicron surge. All three surges also closely approached or passed 170,000 (see Delta note below). I have picked out the dates when 140,000 was surpassed on the upward-moving trendlines with each surge, then added two weeks to see how death trailed compared to what South Korea is experiencing now. The raw numbers tell the tale (all numbers below are from the respective charts for South Korea and the US on Worldometers):

South Korea

2022 surge
Cases (7-day avg)

2/26/2022 - 139,039
2/27/2022 - 147,427
3/3/2022 - 170,328

Deaths (7-day avg)
3/12/2022 - 192
3/13/2022 - 206
3/17/2022 - 262

USA

Winter 2020-21 surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

11/12/2021 - 139,378
11/14/2021 - 150,855
12/2/2020 - 170,464

Deaths (7-day avg)
11/28/2020 - 1,856
11/30/2020 - 1,792
12/16/2020 - 2,795
 

Delta surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

8/16/2021 - 137,849
8/17/2021 - 140,209
9/2/2021 - 169,240 <-- NOTE: Delta peak

Deaths (7-day avg)
8/30/2021 - 1,626
8/31/2021 - 1,652
9/14/2021 - 1,998
9/16/2021 - 2,049 (EDIT: Meant originally to use 9/16/2021 data, not 9/14/2021 based on 9/2/2021 + 14 days)

Omicron surge:
Cases (7-day avg)

12/18/2021 - 136,810
12/19/2022 - 143,306
12/21/2021 - 161,340

Deaths (7-day avg)
1/1/2022 - 1,326
1/2/2022 - 1,357
1/4/2022 - 1,399
Thanks for this, it's helpful. Seems the milder characteristics of Omicron coupled with high vaccination rates is blunting the death numbers.

With that said, I'm still surprised at the total cases/deaths they're experiencing. This wasn't supposed to happen. I mean, we're still told that vaccination is far from perfect as far as preventing transmission, but that it still does blunt transmission.  From these data points it feels like that might be a bunch of baloney.

 
What's your reasoning for ignoring population?

Doing it per case is ignoring inefficiencies of being tested and tests being reported.  You remember not even being able to find test kits until about a month ago?  And now these home tests aren't even being reported.  You've greatly downsized the number of cases in the US, imo.
I think all that's a wash. You miss some cases, you miss some deaths. Plus, I don't think sub-clinical cases (e.g. the three-hour sore throats and the afternoon headaches) are meaningful in this analysis.

Basically, we're looking generally at those who are bad off enough to "show up in the system" of both nations -- to have taken a medically-administered test and found positive. Yeah, some number of confirmed cases are sub-clinical infections who tested for work or travel. That's fine -- I doubt accounting for those one way or the other changes the story.

 
With that said, I'm still surprised at the total cases/deaths they're experiencing. This wasn't supposed to happen. I mean, we're still told that vaccination is far from perfect as far as preventing transmission, but that it still does blunt transmission.  From these data points it feels like that might be a bunch of baloney.
What do these figures look like in a nation with zero vaccinations? Omicron can still move through a vaccinated population, but it's more jogging uphill through knee-deep sand than it is breezing by on cinder track.

More to the point: We're pretty much at the "Who cares about transmission?" point. Having a lot of cases no longer means calamity. Still makes good copy, though.
 

 
What do these figures look like in a nation with zero vaccinations? Omicron can still move through a vaccinated population, but it's more jogging uphill through knee-deep sand than it is breezing by on cinder track.

More to the point: We're pretty much at the "Who cares about transmission?" point. Having a lot of cases no longer means calamity. Still makes good copy, though.
 
I agree transmission is not important. But you used number of cases in your analysis so by default transmission is important to your reading of the data. 

What means calamity is high deaths and hospitalizations, which S. Korea is currently experiencing. I think it's fair to wonder how much vaccines are helping the situation. Am I the only one who is surprised at how hard they're being hit given their vax rates?? From the responses in here people were expecting this to happen. I was not.

 
But you used number of cases in your analysis so by default transmission is important to your reading of the data.
Not my intention. The point of the data I posted was not "Check out the spread!" ... it was "At a given level of spread, how have SK out comes compared with US outcomes?"

The same comparison could be made at different levels of spread -- could do it at 20,000 or 50,000 or 100,000. The only reason I did the original run at 140,000 is because that's where SK happened to be last Saturday -- nothing more.

Hospitalization data would be helpful in evaluating another type of negative outcome. Unfortunately, I have never seen a reliable source for that -- especially when comparing countries.

 
Not my intention. The point of the data I posted was not "Check out the spread!" ... it was "At a given level of spread, how have SK out comes compared with US outcomes?"

The same comparison could be made at different levels of spread -- could do it at 20,000 or 50,000 or 100,000. The only reason I did the original run at 140,000 is because that's where SK happened to be last Saturday -- nothing more.

Hospitalization data would be helpful in evaluating another type of negative outcome. Unfortunately, I have never seen a reliable source for that -- especially when comparing countries.
Makes sense. But if outcomes are considerably better at given levels of spread, but overall deaths exceed US outcomes (which they soon might in the short-run), then how do we account for the significantly higher spread??

 
Am I the only one who is surprised at how hard they're being hit given their vax rates?? From the responses in here people were expecting this to happen. I was not.
Omicron can spread cases through a vaccinated populations. Generally low-overhead cases, yes, but case counts will rise with Omicron nevertheless.

Any place that generally avoided big COVID surges up to and including Delta ... Omicron has just been able to take hold and pile cases one on top the other. High vaccination rates help a lot with the Omicron case outcomes, while helping less with Omicron case transmission.

South Korea is not alone -- New Zealand and much of Oceania has been the same way.

 
Not my intention. The point of the data I posted was not "Check out the spread!" ... it was "At a given level of spread, how have SK out comes compared with US outcomes?"

The same comparison could be made at different levels of spread -- could do it at 20,000 or 50,000 or 100,000. The only reason I did the original run at 140,000 is because that's where SK happened to be last Saturday -- nothing more.

Hospitalization data would be helpful in evaluating another type of negative outcome. Unfortunately, I have never seen a reliable source for that -- especially when comparing countries.
Assuming a spread rate based on reported positive tests is a looooooooong stretch.

Per capita is how you factor percent vaccinated.

Per capita is what World'o'meter tracks where you cherry picked your data from.

I've seen no compelling reason to ignore the data based on population other that the obvious.  

 
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Makes sense. But if outcomes are considerably better at given levels of spread, but overall deaths exceed US outcomes (which they soon might in the short-run), then how do we account for the significantly higher spread??
Higher spread in what way? Per capita?

One thing that might have "helped" the US and Western Europe with Omicron spread was having a salient Delta surge confer some degree of natural immunity to those unvaccinated at the time.

Additionally, South Korea's booster rate is quite low -- less than 20% for SK versus ~42% for the US.

And American boosters were generally well-timed for Omicron's arrival -- many Americans had their boosters with a month of Omicron's onset and within two months of it's peak.

There are a lot of moving gears here, and I doubt I've touched on a tenth of them.

 
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Omicron can spread cases through a vaccinated populations. Generally low-overhead cases, yes, but case counts will rise with Omicron nevertheless.

Any place that generally avoided big COVID surges up to and including Delta ... Omicron has just been able to take hold and pile cases one on top the other. High vaccination rates help a lot with the Omicron case outcomes, while helping less with Omicron case transmission.

South Korea is not alone -- New Zealand and much of Oceania has been the same way.
The bold simply isn't true, and is the reason batterbox brought up the topic.

S. Korea is at a higher vaccination rate than us, has already matched our death rated during Delta and is projected to surpass our death rate for Omicron.  You can't brush those facts aside.

 

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