Requested Article (1 Viewer)

[Brisco54]

Can i do that here?  Can I request a given topic for a staff article?  Here is my suggestion:

Since at least 2015 Dan Hindery has been putting out dynasty trade value charts.  Regardless of how much you might agree with them or not, I think they give us some excellent data on how well we do evaluating a player's value over time.

I am not sure if this is the right way to do this, but I would love an article that data mines Dan's value charts.  

Here is an example of the type of data mining that could be done:

Below is a list of the value Dan assigned to the draft slot before the draft, player (by ADP) taken in that slot, and the trade value of that player the next three years according to Dan's charts.  I then give the veteran at the same veteran draft position with the closest point value in 2015 as well as their current value.  

1.01- 25 (Gurley) - (2016) 40 - (2017) 22- (2018) 50     (24) Jeremy Hill (0)

1.02- 22 (Amari Cooper) 38-36-21                                 (22) Kelvin benjamin (3)

1.03- 20 (Kevin White) 20-4-0                                        (20) Brandin Cooks(17)

1.04- 17 (Melvin Gordon) 10-26-22                                (19) LeSean McCoy (8) & DeMarco Murray (2)

1.05- 15 (DeVante Parker) 21-9-7                                  (15) Jordan Matthews (1)

1.06- 12 (TJ Yeldon) 10-10-1                                          (12) Lamar Miller (3) 

1.07- 10 (Nelson Agholor) 6-0-5                                      (10) Jarvis Landry (15), Jeremy Maclin (0), Martavis Bryant (4)

1.08- 8 (Tevin Coleman) 3-9-7                                         (8) Mark Ingram (9)

1.09- 7 (Jameis Winston) 9-9-6                                        (7) Drew Brees (4), Matt Stafford (6)

1.10- 6 (Breshad Perriman) 13-10-0                                 (6) (DeSean Jackson (1), Kenny Stills (3)

This reveals some interesting data points:

1.  After just three seasons, only 2 of the top ten picks were worth as much as the value of the pick it took to get them.  One (Gurley) increased 100% and the other (Gordon) increased 23%.  Four of ten were worth less than half of their starting value, with two having no value at all.  

2.  QBs do not provide much return on investment if you use a 1st round pick on them.  According to the 2018 chart, the highest rated QB is DeShaun Watson worth 15 points.  That means if you take a QB with the 5th pick and it hits to the point of having the best dynasty fantasy QB in the league, you still only broke even.

3.  Rookie WR seem to hold on to value longer than they should.  Kevin While, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, and to a lesser extent Davante Parker were able to hold on to value at least a year longer than they should have.  Only one of those four (Agholor) has had a rebound in value.

4.  In the Rookie to equivalent value Vet comparison the vets seem to have a slight advantage, but its close, however, keep in mind, I only compared current dynasty values.  If we compare actual performance over the last three years, i think that the Vets win handily at 7 of the ten slots making vets the better investment  2/3rds of the time.  

5.  That said, Vets did not have a huge spike in fantasy value like the top rookies did, so rookies are higher risk/reward.

I just looked at ten draft slots/player values.  I would love to see some more detailed analysis of Hindery's values to see position by position comparison and lots more.

Just a thought/suggestion.

 

[Dan Hindery]

Fun idea for an article. Going through some of these conclusions:

This reveals some interesting data points:

1.  After just three seasons, only 2 of the top ten picks were worth as much as the value of the pick it took to get them.  One (Gurley) increased 100% and the other (Gordon) increased 23%.  Four of ten were worth less than half of their starting value, with two having no value at all.  

It was a bad draft in hindsight. So was 2016. Looking back at 2014, it was loaded and most exceeded draft value (though my chart didn't yet exist) and the same with 2017. 

2.  QBs do not provide much return on investment if you use a 1st round pick on them.  According to the 2018 chart, the highest rated QB is DeShaun Watson worth 15 points.  That means if you take a QB with the 5th pick and it hits to the point of having the best dynasty fantasy QB in the league, you still only broke even.

Yes, QB is so deep now that it doesn't make sense to use a 1st on any QB. We've had a huge influx of young QB talent the last 3 years and the older QBs (Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, etc.) aren't showing much sign of slowing down. In single QB leagues, the position in massively undervalued in general. Probably the reason that so many newer leagues are moving to superflex. 

3.  Rookie WR seem to hold on to value longer than they should.  Kevin While, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, and to a lesser extent Davante Parker were able to hold on to value at least a year longer than they should have.  Only one of those four (Agholor) has had a rebound in value.

This is true of most positions I think. One of the benefits of drafting a rookie is the ability to cash out and get most of your investment out after a year if you don't like what you've seen.  

4.  In the Rookie to equivalent value Vet comparison the vets seem to have a slight advantage, but its close, however, keep in mind, I only compared current dynasty values.  If we compare actual performance over the last three years, i think that the Vets win handily at 7 of the ten slots making vets the better investment  2/3rds of the time.  

Small sample size problem but I can buy 7 of 10 as a decent estimate long term.

5.  That said, Vets did not have a huge spike in fantasy value like the top rookies did, so rookies are higher risk/reward

Exactly this. Even if 7 of 10 are complete busts if the other 3 are Kareem Hunt, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara the overall point values probably work out. If mid-1sts are worth 10 points each, you'd maybe expect a 40, a couple 30s and seven guys worth 5 or less. 

 

[Tick]

I asked Bloom for a something similar, but narrower recently:

Sig, I'd love to see an article looking at historical rookie ADP vs. dynasty startup ADP in the same summer.  In other words, what is the average startup ADP of a player a month after going 1.09 in rookie drafts?

This screams for some graphics to make the conclusions jump off the screen... maybe @Chase Stuart would take this on.

 

[Brisco54]

Fun idea for an article. Going through some of these conclusions:

This reveals some interesting data points:

1.  After just three seasons, only 2 of the top ten picks were worth as much as the value of the pick it took to get them.  One (Gurley) increased 100% and the other (Gordon) increased 23%.  Four of ten were worth less than half of their starting value, with two having no value at all.  

It was a bad draft in hindsight. So was 2016. Looking back at 2014, it was loaded and most exceeded draft value (though my chart didn't yet exist) and the same with 2017. 

2.  QBs do not provide much return on investment if you use a 1st round pick on them.  According to the 2018 chart, the highest rated QB is DeShaun Watson worth 15 points.  That means if you take a QB with the 5th pick and it hits to the point of having the best dynasty fantasy QB in the league, you still only broke even.

Yes, QB is so deep now that it doesn't make sense to use a 1st on any QB. We've had a huge influx of young QB talent the last 3 years and the older QBs (Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, etc.) aren't showing much sign of slowing down. In single QB leagues, the position in massively undervalued in general. Probably the reason that so many newer leagues are moving to superflex. 

3.  Rookie WR seem to hold on to value longer than they should.  Kevin While, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, and to a lesser extent Davante Parker were able to hold on to value at least a year longer than they should have.  Only one of those four (Agholor) has had a rebound in value.

This is true of most positions I think. One of the benefits of drafting a rookie is the ability to cash out and get most of your investment out after a year if you don't like what you've seen.  

4.  In the Rookie to equivalent value Vet comparison the vets seem to have a slight advantage, but its close, however, keep in mind, I only compared current dynasty values.  If we compare actual performance over the last three years, i think that the Vets win handily at 7 of the ten slots making vets the better investment  2/3rds of the time.  

Small sample size problem but I can buy 7 of 10 as a decent estimate long term.

5.  That said, Vets did not have a huge spike in fantasy value like the top rookies did, so rookies are higher risk/reward

Exactly this. Even if 7 of 10 are complete busts if the other 3 are Kareem Hunt, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara the overall point values probably work out. If mid-1sts are worth 10 points each, you'd maybe expect a 40, a couple 30s and seven guys worth 5 or less. 

Thanks for the reply Dan!

I think its too early to look at 2016 or 2017, but how confident are you in the 2014 draft?  The 2014 draft was widely considered one of the best at the time, so your rookie point values would probably have been higher, but using the 2015 slot values here is how it stacks up 4 years later for the top 20 players by ADP according to MFL (slot value, player, current value):

1.01- 25 Watkins - 14
1.02- 22 Evans - 35
1.03- 20 Sankey - 0
1.04- 17 Hyde - 3
1.05- 15 Ebron - 2
1.06- 12 Jordan Matthews - 0
1.07- 10 ODB - 46
1.08- 8 Kelvin B. - 5
1.09- 7 devonta Freeman - 16
1.10- 6 marquis Lee - 5
1.11- 5 Davante Adams - 32
1.12- 5 Tre Mason - 0
2.1 – 4  Jeremy Hill - 0
2.2 – 4  Terrance West - 0
2.3 – 4  Tedy Bridgewater -0
2.4 – 4  Cody Latimer - 0
2.5 – 3  Blake Bortles - 2
2.6 – 3  Donte Moncrief - 3
2.7  - 3 Jace Amaro - 0
2.8  - 3 Ka’Deem Carey - 0

Of the top 20 rookies (by ADP), only 5 currently maintain their original slot value, and that includes Donte Moncrief, who has held on to his 3 points of value.  Sure Evans, ODB, Freeman and Adams were hits, but they were surrounded by lots of misses.  If we limit it to top ten only like we did 2015, then you have a hit rate of 3 out of ten.

This is why I want the article.  I am sure when you looked at the class of 2014, you included names like Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Martavis Bryant, Isaiah Crowell, Derek Carr, Jerrick McKinnon, John Brown, and James White, but at least according to MFL, none of them were in the top 20 for rookie only ADP drafts.  http://www03.myfantasyleague.com/2014/adp?COUNT=32&POS=Coach%2BQB%2BTMQB%2BTMRB%2BRB%2BFB%2BWR%2BTMWR%2BTE%2BTMTE%2BWR%2BTE%2BRB%2BWR%2BTE%2BKR%2BPK%2BTMPK%2BPN%2BTMPN%2BDef%2BST%2BOff&ROOKIES=1&INJURED=0&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=2&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=

If someone can provide a spread sheet of the top 200 players in fantasy (Offense only, no K or DEF) that includes there position in a column, age, and years of NFL, I can input their original slot values and any veteran values you assigned annually during preseason (and I will probably add a column that lists number of teams the player has been on and years they have been with their current team.

MFL can give me ADP back far enough to include Brady, let alone any other fantasy player.  For slot value, i will use the 2015 values for any year prior to that, if you think that's ok Dan?

We can then see what the data tells us.  Questions I hope it helps inform:

1.  A better picture of draft pick versus veteran fantasy value

2.  Position versus position changes in value (in any given year, which hold their value more, the top 20 wr or the top 20 RB?)

3.  The hit rate of lottery tickets based on position.  (A lottery ticket is a player taken after the first 20 picks in a rookie draft or added off the waiver wire... which are more successful, WR, RB, QB or TE lottery tickets?  Should I fill my bench with teams' RB3s or WR4s?

4.  If I can add an NFL round column, we can compare how much NFL draft pedigree affects sustained fantasy value and whether its a good choice.   (E.G. it is my opinion that if Breshad Perriman or Kevin White had been drafted in the 2d round or 3rd round rather than the 1st,  they would have had almost no value after his rookie seasons rather than taking three full seasons to finally zero out.  I am curious as to how many high drafted rookie wr that basically miss their rookie year eventually return to fantasy relevance... I am looking at you John Ross.)  I can think of RBs in that situation that made it (Willis McGehee for one) but I can't think of any WR off the top of my head.  

5.  How many fantasy players experience a renaissance (Moss in NE, Lynch in Seattle, Fitz, Smith in Balt., ) after a significant drop in fantasy value and are there any common denominators?

6.  What is the hit rate for FA that switch teams in their first and subsequent years?

I want to use Dan's charts because I am focused on fantasy market value rather than actual production.    I find that fantasy value is much more predictable than actual production.  To show the difference, consider LeSean McCoy.  It was very predictable that after he turned 26, his value would plummet after only a single mediocre season.  The groupthink of dynasty has everyone focused on dumping old guys a season before they fall off a cliff, so at the first sign of age +  reduced performance, the market craters.   What is also predictable is that this market will never recover, even in the face of excellent performance. 

In 2015 McCoy in his age 27 season, had his rushing yards drop by 424 yards.  Every thought the cliff was right around the corner.  Dan (properly) gave LeSean McCoy a pretty mediocre dynasty value of 9, right behind such stalwarts as TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson and Jeremy Hill.  

Despite a top 4 fantasy RB performance in 2016, McCoy's dynasty value stayed about the same (again properly) rising one point to a 10.  Sure, he dominated in 2016, but now he was 28, so again, groupthink was that the cliff was nigh.  In 2017 McCoy had a top 7 performance, so a little off the 2016 pace, so again, the cliff is nigh and his dynasty value has dropped to a little to 7 (again properly). 

On the one hand, predicting that McCoy would be a top 3 RB over the next two seasons is something only he and his mother would have done... on the other, it was pretty easy to predict that, even if he turned in top performances, his dynasty value would never again go up significantly. 

Similarly, as Dan noted, it is pretty easy to predict that any high drafted rookie will retain most of his value at the end of the first year even if he significantly under-performs.  If his performance meets expectations (it does not have to exceed them) his value will jump up significantly.  After a solid but unspectacular Rookie year, Trent Richardson vaulted to being a consensus top 8 rb overall.  

Predicting the end of season performance floor and ceiling during the preseason is pretty hard, but predicting fantasy value floor and cieling a season in advance is much easier.  

In sum, perception is much easier to predict than reality.  Thus I want to use Dan's annual charts to glean as much useful market value (perception) as possible.

 

[Steeler]

I don't even play Dynasty FF but this is a great idea - nice job Brisco!

 

[Dan Hindery]

Thanks for the reply Dan!

I think its too early to look at 2016 or 2017, but how confident are you in the 2014 draft?  The 2014 draft was widely considered one of the best at the time, so your rookie point values would probably have been higher, but using the 2015 slot values here is how it stacks up 4 years later for the top 20 players by ADP according to MFL (slot value, player, current value):

1.01- 25 Watkins - 14
1.02- 22 Evans - 35
1.03- 20 Sankey - 0
1.04- 17 Hyde - 3
1.05- 15 Ebron - 2
1.06- 12 Jordan Matthews - 0
1.07- 10 ODB - 46
1.08- 8 Kelvin B. - 5
1.09- 7 devonta Freeman - 16
1.10- 6 marquis Lee - 5
1.11- 5 Davante Adams - 32
1.12- 5 Tre Mason - 0
2.1 – 4  Jeremy Hill - 0
2.2 – 4  Terrance West - 0
2.3 – 4  Tedy Bridgewater -0
2.4 – 4  Cody Latimer - 0
2.5 – 3  Blake Bortles - 2
2.6 – 3  Donte Moncrief - 3
2.7  - 3 Jace Amaro - 0
2.8  - 3 Ka’Deem Carey - 0

Of the top 20 rookies (by ADP), only 5 currently maintain their original slot value, and that includes Donte Moncrief, who has held on to his 3 points of value.  Sure Evans, ODB, Freeman and Adams were hits, but they were surrounded by lots of misses.  If we limit it to top ten only like we did 2015, then you have a hit rate of 3 out of ten.

This is why I want the article.  I am sure when you looked at the class of 2014, you included names like Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Martavis Bryant, Isaiah Crowell, Derek Carr, Jerrick McKinnon, John Brown, and James White, but at least according to MFL, none of them were in the top 20 for rookie only ADP drafts.  http://www03.myfantasyleague.com/2014/adp?COUNT=32&POS=Coach%2BQB%2BTMQB%2BTMRB%2BRB%2BFB%2BWR%2BTMWR%2BTE%2BTMTE%2BWR%2BTE%2BRB%2BWR%2BTE%2BKR%2BPK%2BTMPK%2BPN%2BTMPN%2BDef%2BST%2BOff&ROOKIES=1&INJURED=0&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=2&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=

If someone can provide a spread sheet of the top 200 players in fantasy (Offense only, no K or DEF) that includes there position in a column, age, and years of NFL, I can input their original slot values and any veteran values you assigned annually during preseason (and I will probably add a column that lists number of teams the player has been on and years they have been with their current team.

MFL can give me ADP back far enough to include Brady, let alone any other fantasy player.  For slot value, i will use the 2015 values for any year prior to that, if you think that's ok Dan?

We can then see what the data tells us.  Questions I hope it helps inform:

1.  A better picture of draft pick versus veteran fantasy value

2.  Position versus position changes in value (in any given year, which hold their value more, the top 20 wr or the top 20 RB?)

3.  The hit rate of lottery tickets based on position.  (A lottery ticket is a player taken after the first 20 picks in a rookie draft or added off the waiver wire... which are more successful, WR, RB, QB or TE lottery tickets?  Should I fill my bench with teams' RB3s or WR4s?

4.  If I can add an NFL round column, we can compare how much NFL draft pedigree affects sustained fantasy value and whether its a good choice.   (E.G. it is my opinion that if Breshad Perriman or Kevin White had been drafted in the 2d round or 3rd round rather than the 1st,  they would have had almost no value after his rookie seasons rather than taking three full seasons to finally zero out.  I am curious as to how many high drafted rookie wr that basically miss their rookie year eventually return to fantasy relevance... I am looking at you John Ross.)  I can think of RBs in that situation that made it (Willis McGehee for one) but I can't think of any WR off the top of my head.  

5.  How many fantasy players experience a renaissance (Moss in NE, Lynch in Seattle, Fitz, Smith in Balt., ) after a significant drop in fantasy value and are there any common denominators?

6.  What is the hit rate for FA that switch teams in their first and subsequent years?

I want to use Dan's charts because I am focused on fantasy market value rather than actual production.    I find that fantasy value is much more predictable than actual production.  To show the difference, consider LeSean McCoy.  It was very predictable that after he turned 26, his value would plummet after only a single mediocre season.  The groupthink of dynasty has everyone focused on dumping old guys a season before they fall off a cliff, so at the first sign of age +  reduced performance, the market craters.   What is also predictable is that this market will never recover, even in the face of excellent performance. 

In 2015 McCoy in his age 27 season, had his rushing yards drop by 424 yards.  Every thought the cliff was right around the corner.  Dan (properly) gave LeSean McCoy a pretty mediocre dynasty value of 9, right behind such stalwarts as TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson and Jeremy Hill.  

Despite a top 4 fantasy RB performance in 2016, McCoy's dynasty value stayed about the same (again properly) rising one point to a 10.  Sure, he dominated in 2016, but now he was 28, so again, groupthink was that the cliff was nigh.  In 2017 McCoy had a top 7 performance, so a little off the 2016 pace, so again, the cliff is nigh and his dynasty value has dropped to a little to 7 (again properly). 

On the one hand, predicting that McCoy would be a top 3 RB over the next two seasons is something only he and his mother would have done... on the other, it was pretty easy to predict that, even if he turned in top performances, his dynasty value would never again go up significantly. 

Similarly, as Dan noted, it is pretty easy to predict that any high drafted rookie will retain most of his value at the end of the first year even if he significantly under-performs.  If his performance meets expectations (it does not have to exceed them) his value will jump up significantly.  After a solid but unspectacular Rookie year, Trent Richardson vaulted to being a consensus top 8 rb overall.  

Predicting the end of season performance floor and ceiling during the preseason is pretty hard, but predicting fantasy value floor and cieling a season in advance is much easier.  

In sum, perception is much easier to predict than reality.  Thus I want to use Dan's annual charts to glean as much useful market value (perception) as possible.

Looking at 2014, a couple things stand out:

1. This is a good example about how even if less than 30-40% hit, if a few hit hard enough (OBJ, Evans, Adams), it makes up for it and their total value exceeds the cumulative value. Based upon the numbers above the first rounders were worth 152 back in 2014. Those players are now worth a combined 158. 

2. I know it's not necessarily what you're most interested in, but it's also important to remember that most of these guys have already returned a lot of value to their owners and that isn't reflected in their current values.

I view these values somewhat through the lens of stock prices. In that analogy, a productive season is kind of like a dividend check that goes into your bank account. So somebody like Kelvin Benjamin might have seen his value decrease (from 8 to 5) over the past 4 years, but he also produced a rookie season that was worth 3 on my scale (3 PPG above replacement value). He had another season (2016) that was probably worth 1 or 2 PPG above replacement. So if you drafted him in the late 1st, you've already received 5 units of value in addition to what he is currently worth.