Research-# of true RB studs over the last 20 years (1 Viewer)

[fruity pebbles]

In my dynasty drafts I always hear people comment about how so and so will be a stud for X number of years. Cadillac, Ronnie and SJax are great examples as of late. The player is in his early twenties so he automatically has 7-8 years of stud production ahead. It got me to thinking about how truly rare it is to have a RB put up stud production for that length of time.

So I tried to define what long term RB stud production was. It's obviously not definitive and I had to draw the line somewhere. Decided that 5 years of either 300 carries and/or 1500 total yards was a good place to start. The 5 years didn't have to be in a row, just 5 total years of what I would call workhorse and/or stud like production.

Went back over the last 20 years and sorted through the backs who qualified. As expected there weren't very many of them. 14 to be exact over the 20 year time frame. In the 20 years from 1982-2001 138 RBs were drafted in the first and second rounds in the NFL draft. The following backs made the 5 year 1500 total yard or 300 carry cut.

Eric Dickerson

Ricky Watters

Thurman Thomas

Jerome Bettis

Barry Sanders

Emmitt Smith

Eddie George

Fred Taylor

Curtis Martin

Marshall Faulk

Tiki Barber

Edgerrin James

Ladanian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Only 6 guys had both 300 carries for 5 years and 1500 total yards both. Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, Ladanian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, and Eric Dickerson.

Clinton Portis is really the only guy who appears to be a lock to make it who isn't currently on the list. Corey Dillon was really the only other guy who came close. Fred Taylor probably shouldn't be on the list because in the 5th season he barely had 1500 total yards with only 3 TDs, not exactly studly. So it's kind of a push with those two. I may have missed a guy or two. Went through just about everyone from about 1984 on, but someone may have slipped through the cracks.

All in all just reaffirmed my thoughts that young RBs are overvalued in dynasty leagues. There is no guarantee that they'll last any longer than a late 20's RB who's already a stud. Love to hear your thoughts.

 

[Patoons]

I think that is EBF's philosopy in building a dynasty squad.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I think that is EBF's philosopy in building a dynasty squad.

To trade young highly touted backs for older proven studs?

 

[King of the Jungle]

I love the topic. I am too lazy, but it would be interesting to compare the "Big 3" positions (QB, RB, WR) for Dynasty purposes.

 

[fruity pebbles]

What's also interesting is the guys who had 5 "stud" seasons tended to have more than that. Number of seasons with 300 carries or very close to 1500 total yards, usually 1400+

Curtis Martin 10

Barry Sanders 9

Emmitt Smith 8

Eddie George 8

Marshall Faulk 8

Thurman Thomas 7

Jerome Bettis 7

Ricky Watters 7

Tiki Barber 6 (still playing)

Eric Dickerson 6

Fred Taylor 5 (still playing)

Shaun Alexander 5 (still playing)

Edgerrin James 5 (still playing)

Ladanian Tomlinson 5 (still playing)

 

[Patoons]

I think that is EBF's philosopy in building a dynasty squad.

No, to not build around RB's

 

[fruity pebbles]

I think that is EBF's philosopy in building a dynasty squad.

No, to not build around RB's

I can agree with that to a point but I think you need that "stud" RB to win it all, even if he's not around for very long. Was very hard to beat the teams with LJ or Alexander in the playoffs last year if they had any kind of team surrounding them.

 

[Bri]

In my dynasty drafts I always hear people comment about how so and so will be a stud for X number of years. Cadillac, Ronnie and SJax are great examples as of late. The player is in his early twenties so he automatically has 7-8 years of stud production ahead. It got me to thinking about how truly rare it is to have a RB put up stud production for that length of time.

So I tried to define what long term RB stud production was. It's obviously not definitive and I had to draw the line somewhere. Decided that 5 years of either 300 carries and/or 1500 total yards was a good place to start. The 5 years didn't have to be in a row, just 5 total years of what I would call workhorse and/or stud like production.

Went back over the last 20 years and sorted through the backs who qualified. As expected there weren't very many of them. 14 to be exact over the 20 year time frame. In the 20 years from 1982-2001 138 RBs were drafted in the first and second rounds in the NFL draft. The following backs made the 5 year 1500 total yard or 300 carry cut.

Eric Dickerson

Ricky Watters

Thurman Thomas

Jerome Bettis

Barry Sanders

Emmitt Smith

Eddie George

Fred Taylor

Curtis Martin

Marshall Faulk

Tiki Barber

Edgerrin James

Ladanian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Only 6 guys had both 300 carries for 5 years and 1500 total yards both. Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, Ladanian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, and Eric Dickerson.

Clinton Portis is really the only guy who appears to be a lock to make it who isn't currently on the list. Corey Dillon was really the only other guy who came close. Fred Taylor probably shouldn't be on the list because in the 5th season he barely had 1500 total yards with only 3 TDs, not exactly studly. So it's kind of a push with those two. I may have missed a guy or two. Went through just about everyone from about 1984 on, but someone may have slipped through the cracks.

All in all just reaffirmed my thoughts that young RBs are overvalued in dynasty leagues. There is no guarantee that they'll last any longer than a late 20's RB who's already a stud. Love to hear your thoughts.

I think you're missing Eddie George. I don't think Ricky qualifies on the list and maybe Robert Smith would.this is not brain surgery, sorry I mean no disrespect but I feel like you stated something we know. However, I'd be real interested to know what you found out about all the other RBs. Any method to predict a good 3 year RB? I mean there's not enough of these so a 3-5 year solid RB would have to be a sorta 2nd option in dynasty leagues. Coaching/system play a part? Please elaborate if you found anything along those lines

 

[Mike Herman]

Here's some research I did on stud careers for RBs, QBs, WRs, and TEs back thru 1980: stud link

I based it on year end fantasy rankings rather than stats, and used a less stringent stud definition. It still yields the same answer: that sustained excellence is rare. That appears to be particularly true at WR.

 

[Banger]

Here's some research I did on stud careers for RBs, QBs, WRs, and TEs back thru 1980: stud link

I based it on year end fantasy rankings rather than stats, and used a less stringent stud definition. It still yields the same answer: that sustained excellence is rare. That appears to be particularly true at WR.

read it the other day. Great article along with the others posted.....

 

[fruity pebbles]

In my dynasty drafts I always hear people comment about how so and so will be a stud for X number of years. Cadillac, Ronnie and SJax are great examples as of late. The player is in his early twenties so he automatically has 7-8 years of stud production ahead. It got me to thinking about how truly rare it is to have a RB put up stud production for that length of time.

   So I tried to define what long term RB stud production was. It's obviously not definitive and I had to draw the line somewhere. Decided that 5 years of either 300 carries and/or 1500 total yards was a good place to start. The 5 years didn't have to be in a row, just 5 total years of what I would call workhorse and/or stud like production.

   Went back over the last 20 years and sorted through the backs who qualified. As expected there weren't very many of them. 14 to be exact over the 20 year time frame. In the 20 years from 1982-2001 138 RBs were drafted in the first and second rounds in the NFL draft. The following backs made the 5 year 1500 total yard or 300 carry cut.

Eric Dickerson

Ricky Watters

Thurman Thomas

Jerome Bettis

Barry Sanders

Emmitt Smith

Eddie George

Fred Taylor

Curtis Martin

Marshall Faulk

Tiki Barber

Edgerrin James

Ladanian Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Only 6 guys had both 300 carries for 5 years and 1500 total yards both. Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, Ladanian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, and Eric Dickerson.

   Clinton Portis is really the only guy who appears to be a lock to make it who isn't currently on the list. Corey Dillon was really the only other guy who came close. Fred Taylor probably shouldn't be on the list because in the 5th season he barely had 1500 total yards with only 3 TDs, not exactly studly. So it's kind of a push with those two. I may have missed a guy or two. Went through just about everyone from about 1984 on, but someone may have slipped through the cracks.

   All in all just reaffirmed my thoughts that young RBs are overvalued in dynasty leagues. There is no guarantee that they'll last any longer than a late 20's RB who's already a stud. Love to hear your thoughts.

I think you're missing Eddie George. I don't think Ricky qualifies on the list and maybe Robert Smith would.this is not brain surgery, sorry I mean no disrespect but I feel like you stated something we know. However, I'd be real interested to know what you found out about all the other RBs. Any method to predict a good 3 year RB? I mean there's not enough of these so a 3-5 year solid RB would have to be a sorta 2nd option in dynasty leagues. Coaching/system play a part? Please elaborate if you found anything along those lines

Eddie George is already on there. Ricky Watters does qualify, pretty easily. Robert Smith doesn't even come close. Three years seems about the norm for guys who are a stud for one year based on this criteria. Four years is actually pretty rare. It's not like I used 5 years to cut out a lot of guys. It seemed like it was pretty cut and dry. There were a handful of guys who had 4 years of "stud" performance but the cut off really seemed to be at 3 years. A bunch of one hit wonders as well with only one year.

 

[Marc Levin]

I love the topic. I am too lazy, but it would be interesting to compare the "Big 3" positions (QB, RB, WR) for Dynasty purposes.

I think this was done once (like in 2004) with help from the Doctor. RBs have very short shelf lives as top-3/top-5 RBs - longer shelf lives as top-10, but still shorter than the others.

WRs have excellent shelf life as top-10 receivers, and as top-3/top-5.

QBs, too.

Sorry, I ditched that stuff a couple years ago and I'm sure the threads were pruned so I can't show my work.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Stephen Davis had 4 1500+ seasons.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Stephen Davis had 4 1500+ seasons.

Yep, he was one of the few guys who came close. But the cutoff was 5.

 

[sholditch]

Makes me feel pretty good about making Edge the cornerstone of my dynasty team. I really don't think people give him credit for what a truly great back he is. I think he has the ability to overcome less than ideal situations.

 

[Marc Levin]

Makes me feel pretty good about making Edge the cornerstone of my dynasty team. I really don't think people give him credit for what a truly great back he is. I think he has the ability to overcome less than ideal situations.

he ran well in his first two years when the Miami Dolphons were concretely proving that the Colts' still had a lot of work to do on the OL.The 'phins would hold him to 35-45 rush yards heading into the fourth and he'd suddenly end the game with near 100 and a TD or two.