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Rest of season tier disagreement (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Payne
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
I think you need to look a little closer at his numbers. He had 40 targeting the first three games (17, 13 & 10) and has 18 over the last three (4, 5 & 9).
The Saints are selling out to win this year and with the return of Ingram and the trade for Apple I think most of us expect to see a little more emphasis on running and defense going forward.
Fortunately for Thomas owners they have to face a ton of good to great offenses RoS so they're going to have to throw a lot. But I agree that his fantasy projections should be downgraded a bit from where he started off this year.
shoecrew22
Footballguy
Still, if he regresses RoS and finishes below 7th, are we really saying he won't finish top 12?!
dmac37
Footballguy
Of course nobody knows how the season will play out but it seems crazy where Bloom has Thomas projected.
I agree with you.
But "WR2" and Michael Thomas don't belong if you ask me. Fine, you want to say not elite WR1, maybe. But he is a WR1 IMO.
Not a big deal. Just found that to be a little odd.
Chaka
Footballguy
I tend to agree but, and every league is different of course, but in my league in weeks 1-3 he was the #1 WR overall in PPG. In weeks 4-7 he is the #39 WR overall in PPG.
It's not crazy to suggest he stays in the WR2 tier.
Is it really that much of a stretch to say the the current WR7 drops by about 5-6 positions ROS?
apalmer
Footballguy
They aren't "above" him. They're also listed as WR2s. They're listed as high ceiling 2s and he's a high floor 2. They're more of a risky play to score big, he's a solid sure to score guy, who isn't as likely to put up the huge numbers he did earlier because NO is transitioning to more runs now that Ingram is back. Most weeks his floor will outscore those other guys, but they have a better chance of the occasional huge game.
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I understand how the measure works. Either way, my opinion is, he should be in one of the WR1 tiers.
He finished WR #6 last year. # 11 in 2016. Is currently # 7 having already had his bye week. Schedule is good to very good.
In no way should this guy be ranked a WR2 anything. Floor, ceiling, etc. He is a WR1. That is my opinion.
He finished WR #6 last year. # 11 in 2016. Is currently # 7 having already had his bye week. Schedule is good to very good.
In no way should this guy be ranked a WR2 anything. Floor, ceiling, etc. He is a WR1. That is my opinion.
I guess the problem I have with it is the loosey-goosey definition of QB1/RB1/WR1 that he's using.
Only 8 WRs were listed as WR1, 7 RBs.
I feel like there should be a Borderline WR1/RB1 category here, unless he thinks that zero WRs or RBs qualify for that tier.
Even worse is that he has named 18 (!) QBs in various QB1 tiers. That's unbelievably stupid.
Only 8 WRs were listed as WR1, 7 RBs.
I feel like there should be a Borderline WR1/RB1 category here, unless he thinks that zero WRs or RBs qualify for that tier.
Even worse is that he has named 18 (!) QBs in various QB1 tiers. That's unbelievably stupid.
And that's what makes this game fun. Different opinions are what drives things. Even on our staff we don't all agree - as you pointed out our Bob Henry has him much higher. This is Sigmund's take on how he sees it. And I think Sig is one of the smartest guys in all of Fantasy Football. So when he says something, I listen. I think that's good advice for our readers too.
This also brings up a good point - the easiest thing in the world is for Sig to throw an article together like this and make the equivalent of ADP for the rest of the year. And just put down what every other consensus ranking site has. That's not much value in my opinion. I've always encouraged our guys to be thoughtful and go with that they really think. That's what Sigmund has done here. It's not the definitive word. It's Sigmund's take on how he sees things. And it's another bit of info we love bringing to our readers.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
A few of my buddies and I (also FBG's) were talking about our favorites, most agreed we shy away from Bloom as the past few years he's been very off going for shock value. Gronk 6 overall, DJ 1st overall. Where if you miss it's a problem, It's what makes the game fun. Find who you agree with and gravitate towards them. I've been liking Jason Woods rankings of most recent.
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Gottabesweet
Footballguy
It's what I noticed first, some were questionable. I'd love an article with the top 200 forward that explained why players are where they are at. Also the buy low sell high article that comes out Thursday afternoon to evening is a waste, needs to be earlier in the week.
Also not a big fan of the Outliers article, do we really need an article to tell us
QB is QB12 in the top 200, but this week he's QB6 (+6) Bye's and injuries nearly every week.
My favorite by far are the Top 200 and buy low/sell high.
Would love an article on who has nice schedules late 14-16.
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electric Ape
Footballguy
My first reaction when I see a ranking like this is to wonder if it's a typo. MT is pretty clearly a WR1 by just about any measure. Talent: check. QB: check. Past performance: check. Coach / offensive coordinator: check. Actually Thomas is probably a top 6 WR going forward. So I find the ranking a bit misguided.
That said, Sig Bloom is awesome. He's one of my favorite analysts out there. I like that he's an original, contrarian thinker. I like that he isn't afraid of bold positions. And I think he's an interesting listen on any podcast he appears on. I'm a fan. But in my opinion, to get the best results, you want to filter Sig's takes through a talent evaluation lens. As the self professed mayor of "narrative street" he is prone to overreactions and bouts of "fancy play syndrome." He's a smart dude and sometimes I think he outsmarts himself. And that's ok. I listen to all his takes. They are often thought provoking and sometimes they are gold (like pick up Keenan Allen off the waiver wire his rookie year). And for the times where the take is at odds with basic football fundamentals they are pretty easy to ignore. Like Joe said there is always more value in evaluating a bold and original stance than a stale, regurgitated position.
That said, Sig Bloom is awesome. He's one of my favorite analysts out there. I like that he's an original, contrarian thinker. I like that he isn't afraid of bold positions. And I think he's an interesting listen on any podcast he appears on. I'm a fan. But in my opinion, to get the best results, you want to filter Sig's takes through a talent evaluation lens. As the self professed mayor of "narrative street" he is prone to overreactions and bouts of "fancy play syndrome." He's a smart dude and sometimes I think he outsmarts himself. And that's ok. I listen to all his takes. They are often thought provoking and sometimes they are gold (like pick up Keenan Allen off the waiver wire his rookie year). And for the times where the take is at odds with basic football fundamentals they are pretty easy to ignore. Like Joe said there is always more value in evaluating a bold and original stance than a stale, regurgitated position.
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Truebluey
Footballguy
On The Couch is my one MUST LISTEN podcast every week.
Sig is absolutely the best at getting folks into real CONVERSATIONS about football and fantasy. Even if you don't agree, the conversations are almost always illuminating (I disagreed all last year with Matt Waldman's takes on Kareem Hunt, but I still learned about RB play in the NFL listening to them).
So much "fantasy talk" is just blather, blather, blather with apparently no understanding of the game itself (nearly everything on Sirius XM Fantasy).
Sig is absolutely the best at getting folks into real CONVERSATIONS about football and fantasy. Even if you don't agree, the conversations are almost always illuminating (I disagreed all last year with Matt Waldman's takes on Kareem Hunt, but I still learned about RB play in the NFL listening to them).
So much "fantasy talk" is just blather, blather, blather with apparently no understanding of the game itself (nearly everything on Sirius XM Fantasy).
zoonation
Footballguy
Sig is the alpha dog of this site I terms of ff. He’s earned it too imo.
I also dont agree that MT is a high floor WR2 rest of the way. That is nuts imo. He would have to finish year end in the 12-20 range which would shock me if it happened. The guy is too talented and started his career on a pace that was better than OBJ (equal, really).
But sig is probably looking aT his massive reduction in targets the last 3 weeks and the return of Ingram. Bold take.
I bet MT is quiet this week as well, which will only further serve his analysis.
Dude is so good though. Ends season top 10 imo.
I also dont agree that MT is a high floor WR2 rest of the way. That is nuts imo. He would have to finish year end in the 12-20 range which would shock me if it happened. The guy is too talented and started his career on a pace that was better than OBJ (equal, really).
But sig is probably looking aT his massive reduction in targets the last 3 weeks and the return of Ingram. Bold take.
I bet MT is quiet this week as well, which will only further serve his analysis.
Dude is so good though. Ends season top 10 imo.
apalmer
Footballguy
He doesn't have to finish in the 12-20 range or even out of the top 10 to be the 13th best WR the rest of the season. In my ppr league, he's currently #8, 19 points above the #13 WR (Evans). If NO is moving to of a rushing attack and/or if Ingram gets some of the short TDs that were thrown to Thomas earlier in the season, it's entirely possible that Thomas scores 2 or 3 points per game less for the next 9 weeks. That would be enough to drop him to #13 over that period of time, if the guys behind him continue at their current pace. Would that be enough to let them make up the entire point lead he's built up? Maybe, maybe not--he could still finish ahead of them for the entire season, even if they outperform him the rest of the season. Look at it this way: if he broke his ankle tomorrow and couldn't score another point this year, he has enough points scored already that he could end the season as top 36. But, that doesn't mean he'd be a WR3 for the rest of the season.
Thanks for checking out the tiers and being part of FBG!Payne said:
A few things on Thomas's tier:
- He's joined by Evans, Allen, Hilton, Baldwin, Landry and Kupp, and he's ranked first in the tier. Putting his value around Evans and Allen doesn't seem all that outlandish to me
- There are only 8 WR1s - Thielen/Brown/Adams/Hopkins/Hill/Beckham/Green/Jones - and if I had to approximate a real knockout factor for that tier it's probability of having a top 3-5 "week winning" score. Thomas routinely put those up in the early season when the offense revolved around him and Kamara. For that matter, Kamara was routinely putting up numbers in the Gordon/Gurley range. I wouldn't base Kamara's value going forward on his first three weeks because that was in an Ingram-less offense with a struggling defense that created two insane shootouts. Ingram's return has more effect on Kamara's weekly ceiling than Thomas's, but Thomas has also experienced a precipitous drop in fantasy output since the defense stabilized in Week 3 and Ingram returned in Week 4. I see that as a more realistic baseline for his expectations going forward than Weeks 1-3
- Thomas is absolutely talented enough and has a good enough quarterback to be in the WR1 tier. In this way he's similar to Allen, and Hilton, and Baldwin, and Kupp (sorry Jarvis, Baker's not there yet). It comes down to the blueprint of the offense and how often that will hold them back. Thomas will post some week winning scores this year, chances are everyone in the tier will at least once, but the blueprint gives them a lower probability of hitting it in a given week than the WR1s. Game script will create some days when the blueprint is abandoned and this is where schedule can help us anticipate who will have the most spikes (Baldwin and Thomas stand out here)
this gets to the point quicker than i did lolChaka said:
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thats how QB scoring has been this year. There are more than 12 QB1s scoring in the range to be worth basically an everyweek start - how i would define "QB1", and QB2 isn't really a standard value. In a 2QB league there would only be 12 QB1s listed
I would define RB1 and WR1 as an anchor - either a player with truly situation transcendent talent/ability or a player at an ideal usage/situation/talent/ability intersection. I agree that straddling RB1/RB2 WR1/WR2 might be more accurate. Players that will have a mix of RB1/RB2 and WR1/WR2 weekly outcomes with the RB2/WR2 level more likely than WR1/WR2 level
thanks for the kind words. a montage of my "pretty easy to ignore" takes would crack me up. I know I occasionally veer off the road and hit some mailboxes every now and then. Put "smart dude and sometimes I think he outsmarts himself" on my tombstone
it wouldnt surprise me at all. there's more than 10 WRs with the talent and QB to finish in the top 10
Thank you for the thoughtful response. If I may make a suggestion, it may be a good idea to include your definitions of QB1/RB1/WR1 in the Tiers article, because I think the majority of readers will be working under the assumption of a 12-team league, and the terms as you are using them are slightly different from what is "standard".
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
Are we talking a out the top 200? I'll never ever understand the rational for these lists. My standard league Jordon Howard is listed at 31 overall averaging a 8.3 per game but WRs TY Hilton and John Brown are averegaing almost 13 but they are ranked 13 and 14 spots behind. There always seems to be a ridiculous overweighting to RBs. Also, on what planet would any fanatsy p,Ayer rather have Chubb who's ranked two spots ahead of Hopkins? I just don't get it...
I do love Sig though! Although I wished I never would have listened to the advice on that podcast to trade DJ for Cook after week 2
I do love Sig though! Although I wished I never would have listened to the advice on that podcast to trade DJ for Cook after week 2
ugh johnson's usage didnt get any better but neither did cook's hammyAre we talking a out the top 200? I'll never ever understand the rational for these lists. My standard league Jordon Howard is listed at 31 overall averaging a 8.3 per game but WRs TY Hilton and John Brown are averegaing almost 13 but they are ranked 13 and 14 spots behind. There always seems to be a ridiculous overweighting to RBs. Also, on what planet would any fanatsy p,Ayer rather have Chubb who's ranked two spots ahead of Hopkins? I just don't get it...
I do love Sig though! Although I wished I never would have listened to the advice on that podcast to trade DJ for Cook after week 2
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
Well, ya never know. It still may work out. Cook comes back healthy he will be on a much better team than what DJ has despite Leftwich.Sigmund Bloom said:
DarkKnightsGuru
Footballguy
Drake is definitely going to be rb 2 and may reach rb 1 end tier ..he's a flex player by bloom
yeah three straight good weeks, he's back in the circle of trust, too much fear of gase, drake's talent is transcending usage limitations. i would put him in a different tier today
packer_junkie
Footballguy
LOL dude will pry be WR1 after this week. GTFOH
apalmer
Footballguy
Oh, we want to cherry-pick games? Then 4 for 47 against the Giants, 4 for 74 against the Redskins and 5 for 81 against the Vikings is not a WR2, either. It's a WR3/flex.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
It all depends on what your personal definition of WR1 is. Most fantasy leagues have 12 or fewer teams. I can’t think of 11 wrs I’d want more than Thomas—so in my opinion he’s clearly a WR1. Heck—I’d have a hard time thinking of 6 wr’s that I’d take over him. With that said—thats just how I view my tiers.
I'm not cherry picking any games. Every WR has games like that. Your "argument" is silly.
The stats prove he is a WR1 without question. As I said previously, finished 11th in 2016 and 6th last year.
After today he is #3 (188) behind Hopkins (194.40) and Thielen (216.70) and he has already had his bye week.
So not only is he a WR1, he is contending for #1 overall. When you take into account his QB and remaining schedule especially.
Even mentioning him as a WR3/flex is literally one of the most ridiculous things I've read on this board. Come on.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
If you’re going to play a game this silly, then pick every WR’s worst 3 games of the season and rank WRs using only those. You obviously can’t pick one guy’s worst 3 games and then use that to compare him to the whole of all the other WR’s seasons. How does this even seem like a rational point of discussion to you?
If you want to look at trends, fine. Cut out the beginning of the season and use weeks 4-9 on a ppg basis. If you do that, Thomas is still WR9 and he moves to WR8 if Diggs stumbles even the slightest amount. That still looks like a WR1 to me.
.
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apalmer
Footballguy
You mean trends like stats in 3 out of 4 consecutive weeks? And recognizing that it took a 42 point game to get him into the top 9? Or that during that 6 week stretch you think is fair he's 6 points above Tyler Boyd (WR12)? Anyhow, you're really just agreeing with me that posting the results of one big game as proof a guy is "elite" is silly.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Yep, just as silly as the game you are playing. You admit it as such, and yet you insist on continuing to defend it.
I see it more like the people saying Thomas should be a top guy seem to have been right. If the goal is good discussion we all can benefit from, that's a way better way to discuss vs
at the person who was wrong.
zoonation
Footballguy
True. My bad.I see it more like the people saying Thomas should be a top guy seem to have been right. If the goal is good discussion we all can benefit from, that's a way better way to discuss vs
palmer,apalmer said:
In my league he has 46.5 more points than Boyd, who is # 14. Over the 8 games both have played, that is 5.8 points per game more for Thomas.
That's pretty big.
He has 9 more points than Hill, who has played one more game.
15 more than Adams
24 more than AB
26 more than Julio
28 more than OBJ
38 more than AJ
38 more than Evans
All guys MOST consider WR1's
He has one single digit game: 40, 32.9, 22.9, 8.7, 11.4, 19.90, 13.1, 39.10
He has THREE higher scoring games than Thielan, Hopkins, AB, Julio, AJ Green and Evans COMBINED.
He is an elite WR1.
apalmer
Footballguy
Again, the article you are arguing with is "Rest of Season Value". The points anyone scored prior to that article are irrelevant. Throw out the first 3 weeks of the season before the article and the scores since that article are much closer, which is what is relevant. FWIW, I am not saying he will be a WR2. I am saying it's not totally unreasonable for the article to predict him that way, and that one game against Green Bay doesn't prove the article wrong.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Thanks. It seemed to me like you were trying to piece together a serious argument. Glad to hear that you know better.
I would say he has done very well since the article. I think this debate is over. 1 point out of #1 WR overall.
I think both sides had good points that have been proven out in time.
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