Revised Rookie Impressions (1 Viewer)

[lyon812]

Many of us devoted a lot of time and effort towards ranking the incoming rookie class. For the sake of discussion, who do you think you undervalued a few months ago? Who do you think you overvalued? Who are you still sold on? I'm just curious how people's perceptions have changed after training camp and initial preseason performances. This is for dynasty or redraft; I'm concerned more about them as prospects rather than for any specific league/system.

I Undervalued: Harvin. I think he's much smoother as a route runner and YAC threat than I realized, and he's risen up my charts. My primary concern with him is that he's injury prone.

I Overvalued: Brian Robiskie. I'm surprised to hear that he's struggled a bit and is far down on the depth chart. Many assumed that Massaquoi would have the rougher road to travel in order to start. Considering Robiskie's hype as an excellent hands/route technician receiver, it seems surprising that he can't beat out Furrey and Cribbs.

I'm still sold on: Kenny Britt. I think his hamstring injury is unfortunate--a lot of those going around this year it seems--but that he's done well and made some plays and looked very solid against Tampa. Camp reports have said he catches with his hands, gets off the jam well, has good technique and strength.

All of mine are receivers, but that was coincidence. Anyone else?

 

[ATC1]

Over: Every rookie WR. Every year the rookie Wrs get all hype about making an imediate impact. Rarely happens.

Under: M. Stafford. I was not a follower and certainly was taking Sanchez before him.

 

[loose circuits]

i'm gonna post my fallers as I'd be less likely to draft them in my ongoing draft:

James Davis- he whiffed bad in pass protection a few times and the Browns worked out some backs after the preseason game.

Brandon Tate: I drafted him at 2.12 in May. He hasn't seen the field and I don't like this wait & see.

Iglesias/Knox: being outplayed by Brandon Rideau & Devon Aromashadu says something...

Dillard/Thomas/Underwood: see above, replace Rideau with Troy Williamson

Risers:

Jared Cook: guy is a beast on the field

 

[Max Power]

I don't think things have changed a whole lot for any of the rookies. I'm more optimistic about McCoy now and I have bumped James Davis down a bit after week one.

If Anything now is a great time to make a move to pick up Wells or Crabtree as it seems that some owners are already nervous about owning them.

 

[FUBAR]

just the risers and fallers from my previous thoughts

RISING:

Cook

Harvin

Stafford

Scott

FALLING:

Wells

Freeman (and I wasn't big to start with)

 

[az_prof]

Donald Brown is rising. I suspect most people would take him today ahead of Wells and Crabtree.

McCoy is also rising.

 

[lyon812]

Good call, I thought Jared Cook was much more raw and would take longer to adjust and learn the pro game. I think everyone's been pleasantly surprised with how fast he's progressed.

 

[jurb26]

A bit early for this type a thread, no?

 

[lyon812]

A bit early for this type a thread, no?

I could be mistaken. However, I thought that training camp reports/impressions/news at a time when people are drafting or preparing to draft would be a positive thing, particularly if said people are relying on rookie rankings from shortly after the draft.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Bernard Scott stock is climbing up from what I have seen. Especially for where you can grab him (usually the last round).

 

[SSOG]

Over: Every rookie WR. Every year the rookie Wrs get all hype about making an imediate impact. Rarely happens.Under: M. Stafford. I was not a follower and certainly was taking Sanchez before him.

Rarely happens? Here's a list of rookie WRs who have been starter-caliber fantasy players (WR36 or better) over the last decade.2008- Eddie Royal (WR20), DeSean Jackson (WR29)2007- Dwayne Bowe (WR24)2006- Marques Colston (WR14)2005- none2004- Michael Clayton (WR13), Lee Evans (WR19), Roy Williams (WR29), Larry Fitzgerald (WR30), Keary Colbert (WR36)2003- Anquan Boldin (WR4), Andre Johnson (WR23)2002- Antonio Bryant (WR32)2001- Chris Chambers (WR30)2000- Peter Warrick (WR31), Darrell Jackson (WR33)1999- Kevin Johnson (WR17)That's 16 in 10 years, or an average of 1.6 per year. Only once has no rookie WR managed to become a starter-caliber WR, and the year before there were a whopping FIVE rookie WRs who were starter-caliber. In addition, 8 of the 16 impact rookies (50%) wound up in the top 24 (meaning they're fantasy WR2s or better).It's a pretty good bet that at least one rookie WR from this class will make an immediate impact and finish the season as a starter-caliber fantasy receiver. There's even a great chance for two such rookies to emerge. In 60% of the seasons, at least one rookie has even climbed into the top 24.

 

[az_prof]

Over: Every rookie WR. Every year the rookie Wrs get all hype about making an imediate impact. Rarely happens.Under: M. Stafford. I was not a follower and certainly was taking Sanchez before him.

Rarely happens? Here's a list of rookie WRs who have been starter-caliber fantasy players (WR36 or better) over the last decade.2008- Eddie Royal (WR20), DeSean Jackson (WR29)2007- Dwayne Bowe (WR24)2006- Marques Colston (WR14)2005- none2004- Michael Clayton (WR13), Lee Evans (WR19), Roy Williams (WR29), Larry Fitzgerald (WR30), Keary Colbert (WR36)2003- Anquan Boldin (WR4), Andre Johnson (WR23)2002- Antonio Bryant (WR32)2001- Chris Chambers (WR30)2000- Peter Warrick (WR31), Darrell Jackson (WR33)1999- Kevin Johnson (WR17)That's 16 in 10 years, or an average of 1.6 per year. Only once has no rookie WR managed to become a starter-caliber WR, and the year before there were a whopping FIVE rookie WRs who were starter-caliber. In addition, 8 of the 16 impact rookies (50%) wound up in the top 24 (meaning they're fantasy WR2s or better).It's a pretty good bet that at least one rookie WR from this class will make an immediate impact and finish the season as a starter-caliber fantasy receiver. There's even a great chance for two such rookies to emerge. In 60% of the seasons, at least one rookie has even climbed into the top 24.

SSOG, I don't always agree with you but this is the kind of post I really appreciate at FBG--one that is grounded in facts and data and isn't just opinion. The bottom line is that you don't want to draft a rookie WR and count on them as your WR1 or WR2, but there is a good chance one or two of this years crop will be at least a WR3.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG, I don't always agree with you but this is the kind of post I really appreciate at FBG--one that is grounded in facts and data and isn't just opinion. The bottom line is that you don't want to draft a rookie WR and count on them as your WR1 or WR2, but there is a good chance one or two of this years crop will be at least a WR3.

Agreed. Rookie WRs are a risk because you never know *WHICH ONE* will be relevant (nobody saw Colston coming, for instance). Still, categorically dismissing rookie WRs as not worth discussing because they rarely make an impact is silly; rookie WRs make an impact all the time, and it's generally worthwhile to try to figure out which rookies will make an impact this year (or, if nothing else, to not shy away from a WR who you're otherwise very high on just because he's a rookie).I would never draft a rookie and count on him as my WR1 or WR2... but it's incredibly rare to see a rookie going as a WR1 or WR2. The highest ADP of any rookie WR this year is Harvin at WR40 and Crabtree at WR43. FBGs staff consensus rankings have them at 46 and 55, respectively. That's WR4/WR5 territory. Rookies often provide incredible value just because so many people have convinced themselves that rookie WRs never make an impact early unless they're Boldin, Colston, or Randy Moss. I would *LOVE* to have either Harvin or Crabtree as my WR5.Edit: And let's be honest... you agree with me far more than most people.

 

[majstro]

I have been in dynasty leagues for over 10 years and have learned that character can be nearly as important as talent. With that being said, Michael Crabtree has pretty much fallen off of the draft board for me. While many have considered him to be the most-talented player in this year's draft regardless of position, I am losing interest. Sure, receivers are arrogant by nature, but the way that he has conducted himself shows a significant lack of maturity.

Wide receiver is one of the most difficult positions to learn in the NFL. Success is based on talent, work ethic and character. I really question Crabtree's ability to handle adversity and learn the position. Unless something dramatically changes in the next 10 days, I will not be taking him with the sixth pick that I traded for in order to try and take him. From what I have seen thus far, he seems more like a Mike Williams, David Terrell, Charles Rodgers or Rashaun Woods than someone worthy of the sixth pick in a dynasty draft.

 

[awesomeness]

We are talking about the long term prospects of these players right? If thats the case my opinion on players really hasn't changed at all. If there's one change i'd make is that i'd bump up Bernard Scott a bit, besides that my rankings haven't changed since the draft.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Guys im felling ok about that i have vested interest in:

M.Sanchez

J.Cook

D.Brown

P.Harvin

B.Scott

Guys im still ok with but reality sinks in and it may take alot longer than expected:

B.Robiskie

B.Pettigrew

C.Peerman

G.Johnson

H.Nicks

Guy that CLEARLY worries me:

Crabtree....

 

[Team Legacy]

Good stuff SSOG, and not a single bit of Bronco bias in here!

Closer look at your list

2008 Royal (3rd best passing offense) - behind Marshall / DeSean (6th best) - top PHI WR

2007 Bowe (20th best) - top KC WR

2006 Colston (#1) - top NO WR

2005 none

2004 Clayton (14th best) - top TB WR / Evans (27th best) - behind Moulds / Roy (23rd best) - top DET WR Fitz (24th best) / Colbert (9th best) behind Moose

2003 Boldin (23rd best) - top AZ WR / Houston (29th best) - top HOU receiver

2002 Antonio Bryant (31st best) - behind Galloway

2001 Chambers (19th best) - top MIA WR

2000 Warrick (31st) - top CIN WR / DJack (21st) - behind Sean Dawkins

1999 Kev Johnson (29th best) - top CLE WR

Average ranking here: 19th best passing attack - Being in a great passing offense or a poor one doesn't seem to matter.

Looking closer - 16 WRs - 10 WRs were best on their team, only 6 played 2nd fiddle so odds say that most of the time, you need to be top dog wr to be startable

Robiskie - 2nd fiddle to braylon

Austin Collie - no higher than 3rd

Mike Thomas Jarret Dillard Tiquan Underwood - possibilities are here with holt's knee

Kenny Britt - possibility here

Darius Heyward Bey - possibility here

Hakeem Nicks/Ramse Barden - possibility here

Jeremy Maclin - desean in the way

Michael Crabtree - possibility here

Johnny Knox / Juaqin Iglesias - i guess hesters in the way

Derrick Williams - calvin

Percy Harvin - berrian

Deon Butler - housh

Based on this list, it's down to Jacksonville's trio, Britt, Bey, Nicks/Barden or Crabtree. Now, how do we narrow this down?

Britt has the 3 spot locked down.

DHB is #1 by default

Nicks 3rd at worst.

Crabs if and when he signs is #1

Jax trio has a shot at #2 with nagging injuries to Walker.

 

[EBF]

Brandon Tate: I drafted him at 2.12 in May. He hasn't seen the field and I don't like this wait & see.

Tate was absolutely the wrong guy to draft if you were expecting anything this season.

 

[blend]

Stafford. I'm a Lion homer, but I am really excited about his prospects.

 

[SSOG]

Good stuff SSOG, and not a single bit of Bronco bias in here!Closer look at your list2008 Royal (3rd best passing offense) - behind Marshall / DeSean (6th best) - top PHI WR2007 Bowe (20th best) - top KC WR2006 Colston (#1) - top NO WR2005 none2004 Clayton (14th best) - top TB WR / Evans (27th best) - behind Moulds / Roy (23rd best) - top DET WR Fitz (24th best) / Colbert (9th best) behind Moose2003 Boldin (23rd best) - top AZ WR / Houston (29th best) - top HOU receiver 2002 Antonio Bryant (31st best) - behind Galloway2001 Chambers (19th best) - top MIA WR 2000 Warrick (31st) - top CIN WR / DJack (21st) - behind Sean Dawkins1999 Kev Johnson (29th best) - top CLE WRAverage ranking here: 19th best passing attack - Being in a great passing offense or a poor one doesn't seem to matter.Looking closer - 16 WRs - 10 WRs were best on their team, only 6 played 2nd fiddle so odds say that most of the time, you need to be top dog wr to be startableRobiskie - 2nd fiddle to braylonAustin Collie - no higher than 3rdMike Thomas Jarret Dillard Tiquan Underwood - possibilities are here with holt's kneeKenny Britt - possibility hereDarius Heyward Bey - possibility hereHakeem Nicks/Ramse Barden - possibility hereJeremy Maclin - desean in the wayMichael Crabtree - possibility hereJohnny Knox / Juaqin Iglesias - i guess hesters in the wayDerrick Williams - calvinPercy Harvin - berrianDeon Butler - houshBased on this list, it's down to Jacksonville's trio, Britt, Bey, Nicks/Barden or Crabtree. Now, how do we narrow this down?

In terms of player evaluation, I tend to think that I have very little Broncos bias. If we're talking about who the best team in the league is, then clearly I'm biased, but if we're talking about which RBs are going to be the best or what certain WRs are going to go for or anything, I'm as likely to be lower than average on a Broncos player (I've been called a Brandon Marshall hater for years, for instance) as I am to be higher. I like to think that I'm not biased towards Broncos, I'm just better able to make an informed opinion on them (because I spend a lot more time following the team and have a lot more information at my disposal than the average FFer).Anyway, I don't know that the difference between 10 top dogs and 6 second fiddles is significant enough to rule out guys like Harvin or Maclin just because they're considered the WR2 on their team. For me, when I'm looking to predict which rookie WRs are going to make noise, the #1 factor is how they're looking in camps. Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson were both getting rave reviews in camps (which people were just chalking up to fluff). Marques Colston wouldn't have been anywhere near as much of an out-of-nowhere surprise if people had just paid more heed to the buzz coming out of camps. Anquan Boldin shocked the world when he went for 200 yards in his first game, but he didn't shock the people who had been watching the Arizona Cardinals during camps (all both of them ). In order for me to believe that a rookie WR is capable of making an immediate impact, he has to be... making an immediate impact. That's a big reason why I don't think it's the slightest bit silly to think that Percy Harvin will be a starter-caliber fantasy WR *THIS YEAR*- the reports from camp are more roar than buzz. As for the rest of them... I don't know, but hopefully some team insiders will weigh in on how the other rookies are looking in camps. I've heard some good things about Nicks, but I don't know if that's more fluff or legitimate buzz.

 

[EBF]

Based on this list, it's down to Jacksonville's trio, Britt, Bey, Nicks/Barden or Crabtree. Now, how do we narrow this down?

I like this list except I would exclude the Jax WRs and add Harvin. I don't think Berrian is a strong enough WR1 to prevent Percy from breaking out immediately. I have always felt that Nicks and Harvin are the best bets to be relevant this season. DHB and Britt also have great opportunities, but I have a little less faith in their talent.Crabtree is his own worst enemy right now. Obviously he won't make an impact if he's not on the field. If he signs soon and gets his stuff together then he could make a late surge. I think he's talented enough to do it and SF doesn't have a true WR1.

 

[awesomeness]

Good stuff SSOG, and not a single bit of Bronco bias in here!Closer look at your list2008 Royal (3rd best passing offense) - behind Marshall / DeSean (6th best) - top PHI WR2007 Bowe (20th best) - top KC WR2006 Colston (#1) - top NO WR2005 none2004 Clayton (14th best) - top TB WR / Evans (27th best) - behind Moulds / Roy (23rd best) - top DET WR Fitz (24th best) / Colbert (9th best) behind Moose2003 Boldin (23rd best) - top AZ WR / Houston (29th best) - top HOU receiver 2002 Antonio Bryant (31st best) - behind Galloway2001 Chambers (19th best) - top MIA WR 2000 Warrick (31st) - top CIN WR / DJack (21st) - behind Sean Dawkins1999 Kev Johnson (29th best) - top CLE WRAverage ranking here: 19th best passing attack - Being in a great passing offense or a poor one doesn't seem to matter.Looking closer - 16 WRs - 10 WRs were best on their team, only 6 played 2nd fiddle so odds say that most of the time, you need to be top dog wr to be startableRobiskie - 2nd fiddle to braylonAustin Collie - no higher than 3rdMike Thomas Jarret Dillard Tiquan Underwood - possibilities are here with holt's kneeKenny Britt - possibility hereDarius Heyward Bey - possibility hereHakeem Nicks/Ramse Barden - possibility hereJeremy Maclin - desean in the wayMichael Crabtree - possibility hereJohnny Knox / Juaqin Iglesias - i guess hesters in the wayDerrick Williams - calvinPercy Harvin - berrianDeon Butler - houshBased on this list, it's down to Jacksonville's trio, Britt, Bey, Nicks/Barden or Crabtree. Now, how do we narrow this down?Britt has the 3 spot locked down.DHB is #1 by defaultNicks 3rd at worst.Crabs if and when he signs is #1Jax trio has a shot at #2 with nagging injuries to Walker.

I agree with your list somewhat, but i'd remove DHB since he sucks, Mike Thomas cause he's a slot guy, and Tiquan Underwood just because.I'd say the top rookie WR for this year is someone of: Britt, Nicks, Crabtree, Dillard, or Johnny Knox.