Captain Fantastic
Footballguy
So we've had some excellent debate in past threads regarding the StudQB/StudWR from the same team issue (i.e. if you draft Peyton Manning, do you want Reggie Wayne or would you prefer a different WR).
Let's readdress in more specific terms for the 2009 playoffs. Right now, I see six true (or close enough) QB/WR stud combos in no particular order:
PManning + Wayne
Brady + Moss
Brees + Colston
Warner + Fitz
Schaub + AJohnson
Rivers + VJackson
A couple of the QBs are a little debatable (outside Top 5 "stud" status), BUT each matches up to an all-star WR who is his primary hook-up (this is why Rodgers isn't on the list...Driver? Jennings? Not a definite WR match).
When discussing draft/auction strategy, the general argument is to always draft the best players possible. If you already have Manning and Wayne is the best WR available (or vice versa), you take him. And I tend to agree that over the course of a season, having the best players in your line-up will generally yield the best results.
HOWEVER, let's put this in the context of playoffs. You're no longer talking about a full season of games. Sudden death every week.
For the sake of argument, assume the rest of your team is full of studs (you lead the league in points, you're the number one playoff seed, whatever...just assume you have a good team beyond the QB/WR in question). And I'm adding this caveat because - in my eyes - it's a different debate if your team squeaked into the playoffs. In that case, you simply MUST maximize your scoring potential rather than focus on managing downside risk (something you can afford if your roster is generally strong).
So you're in the playoffs with your terrific team. Would you rather have one of the QB/WR combos above OR would you rather substitute a WR one tier below and diversify your portfolio?
Let's say you have Manning+Wayne. Would you rather have Manning + Roddy White or Wes Welker?
If you have Brady+Moss, would you rather have Brady + DeSean Jackson or Greg Jennings?
Clearly, the substitute WRs still have upside but are not in the same tier as the "combo" WR. You've minimized your downside risk. If Wayne or Moss has a great game, you still benefit from owning Manning or Brady respectively. BUT, you diminish the impact of a TD-less game by the Colts or Patriots if the team happens to have an off week (since one "off week" would eliminate your championship aspirations).
Once upon a time, I would have gone with the philosophy to ALWAYS have the best guys on the field (if Brady+Moss is the best combo, then roll with your studs no matter what). But it's hard to forget how many owners rode Brady/Moss to regular season Most Points titles in 2007 but then lost in the FF playoffs when both QB & WR put up stinkers.
Looking at the Pats playoff schedule, the same danger may be there in 2009 (but the same risk can be said for any QB/WR combo above regardless of schedule).
For many leagues, trading deadlines are upon them. If you had one of the combos above, would you try to trade AWAY from them (exchange Reggie Wayne for a White/Welker/Jennings and possibly shore up a RB/TE/etc)?
On the other hand, if you had the opportunity to UPGRADE at WR but doing so would GIVE you one of the QB/WR combos (trading a White/Jennings/etc to end up with a Manning/Wayne or Brady/Moss combo), would you do it or would the concentration scare you?
What say ye, Sharks?
Let's readdress in more specific terms for the 2009 playoffs. Right now, I see six true (or close enough) QB/WR stud combos in no particular order:
PManning + Wayne
Brady + Moss
Brees + Colston
Warner + Fitz
Schaub + AJohnson
Rivers + VJackson
A couple of the QBs are a little debatable (outside Top 5 "stud" status), BUT each matches up to an all-star WR who is his primary hook-up (this is why Rodgers isn't on the list...Driver? Jennings? Not a definite WR match).
When discussing draft/auction strategy, the general argument is to always draft the best players possible. If you already have Manning and Wayne is the best WR available (or vice versa), you take him. And I tend to agree that over the course of a season, having the best players in your line-up will generally yield the best results.
HOWEVER, let's put this in the context of playoffs. You're no longer talking about a full season of games. Sudden death every week.
For the sake of argument, assume the rest of your team is full of studs (you lead the league in points, you're the number one playoff seed, whatever...just assume you have a good team beyond the QB/WR in question). And I'm adding this caveat because - in my eyes - it's a different debate if your team squeaked into the playoffs. In that case, you simply MUST maximize your scoring potential rather than focus on managing downside risk (something you can afford if your roster is generally strong).
So you're in the playoffs with your terrific team. Would you rather have one of the QB/WR combos above OR would you rather substitute a WR one tier below and diversify your portfolio?
Let's say you have Manning+Wayne. Would you rather have Manning + Roddy White or Wes Welker?
If you have Brady+Moss, would you rather have Brady + DeSean Jackson or Greg Jennings?
Clearly, the substitute WRs still have upside but are not in the same tier as the "combo" WR. You've minimized your downside risk. If Wayne or Moss has a great game, you still benefit from owning Manning or Brady respectively. BUT, you diminish the impact of a TD-less game by the Colts or Patriots if the team happens to have an off week (since one "off week" would eliminate your championship aspirations).
Once upon a time, I would have gone with the philosophy to ALWAYS have the best guys on the field (if Brady+Moss is the best combo, then roll with your studs no matter what). But it's hard to forget how many owners rode Brady/Moss to regular season Most Points titles in 2007 but then lost in the FF playoffs when both QB & WR put up stinkers.
Looking at the Pats playoff schedule, the same danger may be there in 2009 (but the same risk can be said for any QB/WR combo above regardless of schedule).
For many leagues, trading deadlines are upon them. If you had one of the combos above, would you try to trade AWAY from them (exchange Reggie Wayne for a White/Welker/Jennings and possibly shore up a RB/TE/etc)?
On the other hand, if you had the opportunity to UPGRADE at WR but doing so would GIVE you one of the QB/WR combos (trading a White/Jennings/etc to end up with a Manning/Wayne or Brady/Moss combo), would you do it or would the concentration scare you?
What say ye, Sharks?
